Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid Warfare
Abstract
In order to achieve political aims; the traditional means of kinetic warfare have always
been supplemented by aggressive diplomacy, economic coercion, intelligence gathering,
propaganda and proxy wars. A combination of all these tools is essential for a nation to
achieve its political goals set out to win a war. All through the ages, technology has played
a significant role in enhancing the capacity and capability of nations to win wars. The
tools of modern warfare based on cyber and information technology has transformed the
nature of warfare. Social media in particular is being used subtly as well as aggressively to
shape public opinion and weaken the morale of the nation. The geographical dimensions
of the battlefield have been eliminated. War is now waged in the minds of not only the
opposing commanders but also in the minds of the nation. The dictum that strategy is the
dialectic of opposing will is truer now than ever before. Wars can now be won without
firing a single bullet. This changed nature of warfare needs to be understood in its entirety.
While contingency plans exist in military headquarters to counter a physical invasion,
there is little by way of collectively responding to the threats launched from various
technical platforms. This paper is an attempt to look into the transformation of war
fighting and suggests a few policy options for Pakistan to take up the challenges of hybrid
warfare and keep the national will and morale intact during the worst of times.
Introduction
A s per famous military sage Karl von Clausewitz, war is the extension of policy
by other means. In order to fulfill a policy objective, kinetic means of warfare
have always been supplemented by diplomatic pressure and economic coercion;
intelligence gathering and propaganda; espionage and proxy wars. A balanced
combination of all these means and other traits and characteristics such as the
quality of leadership and the resilience of a nation in adversity; and the economic
The author is the Associate Dean at the Centre for International Peace & Stability (CIPS), National University of
Sciences & Technology (NUST) Islamabad and Aizah Azam who is a MS in Peace & Conflict Studies from Centre for
International Peace & Stability (CIPS), National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST) Islamabad helped the
author during the development of this article. The authors’ email address is [email protected].
and political standing of a nation and internal stability are instrumental in leading
to the successful culmination of the war effort.
Ever since the Stone Age, technology and scientific innovation have played
an important role in ushering in successive waves of revolution in military affairs.
These scientific discoveries have increased the power potential of nations manifold
through the introduction of such revolutionary means of conducting warfare such
as gun powder; wind, steam and fossil fuel energy to propel battleships and battle
tanks; and nuclear power to cause widespread death and destruction. Technology is
now moving at a phenomenal speed to bring about fundamental changes in the
nature of warfare. The theatre of warfare has drastically expanded from its pre-
established definitions due to the introduction of ‘virtual’ battle spaces. The
discourse on warfare is now more technologically driven than before. It has become
elusive in character and is marked by the creation of abstract settings and use of
multiple means of power to establish supremacy and achieve the political goals.
This has led to the elimination of physical barriers and has empowered hidden
forces that can manoeuvre and defeat the adversary without fighting an actual
battle. It has become a mind game and Andre Beufre’s famous dictum that strategy
is the dialectic of opposing wills, has now become the absolute truth.
With a broadened risk base, hybrid tools to conduct war beyond the
concrete battle spaces have come to include cyber-attacks on national databases,
hostile narrative building through propaganda, misinformation and disinformation
through social media. The main objective is to hurt the adversary at the
psychological and cognitive level, without necessarily causing any harm within the
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physical space. There are limited restrictions when it comes to the use of available
resources. In this connection, hybrid wars have often times been referred to as
‘unrestricted warfare’ as well. This unrestricted arena of warfare works with
completely transformed notions of weaponry such as resorting to the use of
computer viruses during combat operations. However, it must be noted that the
core aim of the use of these reformed techniques, remain purely Clausewitzian, that
is to cloud the adversary’s judgment and decision making, compelling it to
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surrender to one’s own planned agendas, without using any overt force.
aspect of national security paradigms. Needless to say, the national will can be
broken if the enemy is allowed to operate with impunity. Clearly, the planners and
decision makers of modern wars must be able to comprehend, shape and reinforce
national behaviours and opinions. This is only possible by creating legitimately
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good ‘information’. Doctored or malicious ‘information’ based on propaganda and
fake news can cause terrible harm to the morale of the nation. In the recent times,
some significant changes in a nation’s inherent will to resist have fallen victim to
the coordinated propagation of fake news and malicious untruths to influence
public opinion.
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conducting such fanciful strikes into Azad Kashmir. It is naturally blatant
propaganda aimed to raise their own morale and to depict the Pakistani forces in
poor light.
Social Media
In this age of hybrid warfare, it is instructive to study how social media
influences the minds of the citizens of a country. Between the years 2005 and 2018,
there has been a considerable increase in the number of Facebook and twitter users
all over the world. With easy access to social media forums like Facebook, twitter
and YouTube, there has been a staggering increase in the number of users over the
said forums over the past few years. Capitalising on the outreach of the social
media, it was used most effectively to support and propagate the Arab Spring to
remove and replace aging dictatorships and monarchies in the Middle East. It is
quite well documented that public protests in Tahrir Square in the heart of Cairo in
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2011 were mobilized through Facebook.
Cambridge Analytica used the Facebook to harvest data of potential voters to shape
public opinion during the US national elections in 2016.
However, the use of twitter and YouTube has been more prone towards
dissemination of information and communication unlike Facebook which is mostly
equated with the steering of public opinion. As of recently, the use of Twitter by
major world leaders to express their views on global developments and most
importantly to communicate their foreign policy preferences, has been a common
practice. This electronic communication among the leaderships of major countries
is a rather new phenomenon, but has resulted in a state of spontaneity whereby the
leaders do not necessarily have to conduct meetings in designated spaces to
communicate and discuss the issues of national significance. Particularly, twitter
remained an important pillar of US President Trump’s election campaigning. Even
after the assumption of office, Trump has continued to extensively rely on Twitter
as a continuum of his aggressive foreign policy rhetoric directed for countries like
North Korea, Iran and at times Pakistan. Unhindered use of YouTube and the
blogging culture adhered to mostly by politicians and the academic fraternity has
further fuelled the dissemination of questionable and unverified information.
Information on all sorts of topics is released as a part of video logs and/or private
blogs has become a part of the large body of discourse, offering contesting
alternative narratives on issues of grave concern for countries, yet without any
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substantial empirical reasoning.
nauseam use of social media websites. On the political front, both twitter and
facebook were used as active arenas for political deliberations and communications
during the past election. Exchange of rhetoric with other political leaders has also
remained a rather glaring feature of the Pakistani politics. As per the statistics
collected by the Alpha Pro, a digital marketing firm, there has been an astounding
increase in the number of social media users over the past many years. In this view,
as of June, 2018, 44.6 million people of the 198.9 million of total Pakistani
population are active internet users. And of these 44.6 million internet users, 35.0
million alone actively engage with social media websites. This actually means that
of the total population in Pakistan, only 22 per cent has an active access to general
internet and of this 22 per cent, 18 per cent uses social media to the extent which
can be referred to an active presence on the forum. Intriguingly so, of the 35.0
million active social media users, a massive 92.06 per cent of the masses prefer
facebook over a small 4.68 per cent YouTube users and a smaller 1.50 per cent of
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twitter users. In view of iteration made above, the very fact that most of the
Pakistani public, primarily its youth associates more with facebook which is an
information sharing forum, than with twitter and/or YouTube which primarily
serve the purpose of communication, establishes the critical opening in the realm
of responsible information sharing within the country. In case of Pakistan, the
entire premise of irresponsible information sharing and the susceptibility to fall for
fake news, without necessarily authenticating the source of it, is deeply intertwined
with the intricate socio-political and cultural dynamics of the nation from a
psychological perspective. The reasons behind adhering to and/or associating with
a certain news shared over such forums is deeply rooted in some prior connection
of the individual with the subject that the news is about or with the source that
which has posted it in the first place. However, in most cases, there is always a self-
serving underlying agenda and a deliberate unauthenticated sharing of the online
information. As a far-fetched repercussion, this tendency of sharing unverified
news has borne deep into one of the defining features of our national character.
Above anything else, this tendency is rather detrimental given the fluid nature of
information which is half through until the time it has been authenticated at least
once. Ironically though, Pakistan stands at least a decade away from instilling
among its people a culture of rational and responsible information sharing which
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takes into account all the long and short term consequences of their actions.
Cyber Attacks
Cyber warfare has increased the asymmetrical threat to a nation’s
databases and its decision making mechanisms. The threat of cyber-attacks needs
immediate attention as nations with considerable resources and more sophisticated
targets the very spirit of the adversary country. Information based wars have the
potential to influence political, economic or military goals at any and all levels.
They can sabotage the economy, development ventures, and/ or the sabotage or
destruction of the entire information network system. It essentially includes
collection of tactical information, deliberately spreading propaganda and
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disinformation to demoralize or manipulate the adversary. Endless debates over
electronic media citing the inadequacy in the policy and governance structures
within lead to a state of conditioning nations into believing in the inability of their
national leaders to lead their countries into the rightful direction. It must be noted
that like other forms of hybrid warfare, the linchpin of psychologically tarnishing
the very spirit of nations lies in ‘information’, its unverified release and sharing. It
must also be noted that for the advancement of such an agenda, it does not
necessarily have to be an external source to act as a carrier of fake news. In case of
Pakistan, there is a lot that needs to be done on this front. At present, varying
discourses in the electronic, print and social media regarding Pakistan’s
engagement with the multi-billion dollar deal CPEC is one such example. The
doubts about the longevity and credibility about the engagement began on a
similar note and have now grown into a daily dose of debate as to whether the
alliance is a good idea or not.
Policy Options
There is an urgent need to understand and address the multi-faceted threat
posed by hybrid warfare. Due to the heightened susceptibility to fall victim to these
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stratagems, national security paradigm needs to be overhauled. There is a clear
cut need to devise a strategy, build capacities and allocate resources. The response
should be a whole of government approach and the people should be made a part
of it. Operating in silos and turf rivalry can only increase the threat and not
decrease it. Recommended options are as under:
First and foremost, there is a need to create awareness among our top level
policy and decision makers about the need to register and recognize hybrid
warfare as the contemporary currency of war and to come up with an
imaginative counter strategy. Notwithstanding the fact that there should
be an integrated and holistic approach to synergise all resources (civil and
military), there is no harm to make one of the ministries the lead agency.
This ministry can be officially mandated to develop a national narrative to
counter false claims of disunity or worse disintegration. Innovative themes
can be constructed to produce a positive ambience and raise the morale of
the nation. The person responsible for this effort should be answerable to
the Prime Minister and should regularly update the Parliament and where
needed the nation. This person should also be provided adequate financial,
material and human resources to plan and fight a meaningful battle to
counter hybrid threats.
Secondly there is a need to make a clear cut policy integrating all the civil
and military agencies to come up with a sustainable model. The
government can achieve this by engaging all the stakeholders within the
society in the formulation of an altogether new security paradigm. In this
view, practically viable means to lessen the vulnerability in the cyber realm
must be made part of the country’s national security doctrine. The military
can be asked to revise its threat hypothesis to cover all aspects of the
hybrid threat. Inputs from noted economists, academics, cyber war experts,
scientists and law enforcement agents can be factored into formulating the
new threat dimensions.
Thirdly, at the foreign policy level, alliances should be sought with friendly
countries to strengthen our digital defences. International best practices
must be introduced with the help of partner countries and organizations to
achieve the gold standard in cyber security. Universities should be
encouraged to come up with policies and technologies to secure our cyber
and mental frontiers.
Fourthly, investment should be made in human resource. Young university
students and fresh graduates in the market with the knack of fighting cyber
warfare in the domain of not only science and technology but also in hard
core information warfare should be hired. They should be trained to work
in small teams to counter various facets of the hybrid threats.
Fifthly, serious planning should be done to manufacture our own hardware
and software. Currently all computers, laptops, smartphones and servers
are imported. None of our data bases are running on machinery produced
by our own technologists. Similarly all our operating systems are those
produced by companies such as Microsoft. We do not have any digital
search engine of our own. Our universities submit all their intellectual
outputs to similarity index software such as Turnitin. This can only
perpetuate intellectual hegemony of the West. None of our thoughts and
research belongs to us. It is captured by software produced externally.
Last but not the least, Pakistan must energize its defensive information
mechanism on state and social media to spread competing narratives to
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fight gloom and doom stories. This is easier said than done, it will need a
Conclusion
Wars have always been waged with all the tools available to a nation
(financial, political and diplomatic) to achieve a political goal. A weak nation
remains always at the mercy of a stronger adversary. This does not only mean just
having a top class military outfitted with latest weapons of war but a strong and
resilient nation willing to undergo all sorts of trials and tribulations in order to
survive at its own terms. This means essentially that the nation should be at peace
with itself. It should believe in its leadership and the capacity and capability of the
state institutions to function for its good. Common man must have two square
meals a day and a roof over his/her head. The children must be in schools and not
out on the streets begging. There should be access to quick and fair justice. There
should be hospitals for the sick, water in the taps, gas in the pipelines and the bulbs
must light up after dusk. The state should be sympathetic towards its citizens and
in a position to look after the needy. The police should protect the citizens from
the criminals and the army should be able to defend the borders.
To prevent any worst case scenario from happening not only a positive
narrative needs to be created but also all national policies should be made on the
basic principles of being people friendly and welfare oriented. Physical frontiers can
be defended but collapse on the mental front can lead to surrender without
fighting. This must be prevented come what may and the national will and spirit
must be protected at all costs.
NOTES
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