Forecast Barriers
Forecast Barriers
Forecast Barriers
List of Abbreviations 3
1.0 INTRODUCTION 4
1.1 Background 4
1.2 Anticipatory Approach in Disaster Management 5
1
‘DROUGHT IN KENYA.’ <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321461935_DROUGHT_IN_KENYA> [accessed 15 April 2019].
2
The Post Disaster Needs Assessment - droughts in 2008-2011 was done with technical support from the European Union, United
Nations, and World Bank. https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/kenya-post-disaster-needs-assessment-droughts-2008-2011
[accessed 28 June 2019]
3
USAID, ‘Economics of Resilience to Drought: Kenya Analysis’, 43.
4
‘Kenya: Drought - 2014-2019’, ReliefWeb <https://reliefweb.int/disaster/dr-2014-000131-ken> [accessed 18 June 2019].
Table 2: Indicators monitored by the NDMA drought EWS (Source: NDMA)
of weather and climate forecast in the system hydrological services and other humanitarian
can shift the system to be anticipatory and agencies. Coughlan de Perez et al. defined FbA
hence better inform actions to reduce the as when a forecast states that an agreed-upon
impacts of droughts on the economy as well as probability threshold will be exceeded for a
on vulnerable communities before the droughts hazard of a designated magnitude, then an
occur. action with an associated cost must be taken
that has a desired effect and is carried out by a
1.2 Anticipatory Approach in Disaster designated organisation .
Management
FbA initiatives seek to jointly develop standard
Despite the availability of early warning systems operating procedures with key stakeholders,
and information, very often communities, where each stakeholder commits to undertake
governments, humanitarian organisations and certain actions when a forecast for an extreme
international aid agencies tend to respond after, event is issued. For example, in 2017 when rains
rather than in advance of a severe drought. were set to fail in the Horn of Africa region, the
And yet there exists a window of opportunity Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) piloted an
between the issuance of early warning early warning early action system in Marsabit,
information and the impacts of drought events Wajir, Kilifi and Kwale . The system initiated early
being felt where early actions can be taken to actions such as, providing veterinary care for
mitigate impacts on society. livestock and distributing animal feeds.
Recognising this window of opportunity, and The FbA approach has the potential to transform
taking advantage of advances in science, data the way governments, humanitarian actors and
and technology, the Red Cross Red Crescent communities view and address crises caused
Movement developed and has piloted an by climatic hazards from reactive to proactive
approach known as Forecast-based early Action actions. Moreover, investment into early action
(FbA), in partnership with meteorological and can be a more effective way of delivering
5
E. Coughlan de Perez and others, ‘Forecast-Based Financing: An Approach for Catalyzing Humanitarian Action Based on Extreme
Weather and Climate Forecasts’, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15.4 (2015), 895–904 <https://doi.org/10.5194/
nhess-15-895-2015>.
6
‘CA0227EN.Pdf’ <http://www.fao.org/3/ca0227en/CA0227EN.pdf> [accessed 18 June 2019].
humanitarian aid in the long term by acting three months ahead. Every day KMD produces
before the worst effects of disasters are felt. a 24-hours ahead forecast and a forecast of
According to the FAO, for every 1 USD they average conditions for the next five days. At the
spent per household in early action in 2017, 3.5 start of every week (Monday), a seven days’
USD was saved. However, had the FAO waited average forecast is also produced.
for the drought to hit before responding with At the end of every month, a forecast for the
assistance such as restocking, the response next month is produced showing the likelihood
would have cost an additional 9 USD per of total precipitation in that month being
household6. above normal, normal or below normal (Figure
1). A month or weeks to the main rainfall
2.0 Climate and weather seasons, March-April-May (MAM) and October-
forecasts in Kenya November-December (OND), a seasonal
forecast is produced showing the likelihood of
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) the total seasonal rainfall being above normal,
provides weather and climate forecasts at normal or below normal (Figure 2).
different timescales, ranging from 24 hours to
Figure 1: April 2019 monthly rainfall forecast. Source; Kenya Meteorological Department
7
‘329335905_Extreme_Rainfall_and_Flooding_over_Central_Kenya_Including_Nairobi_City_during_the_Long-Rains_
Season_2018_Causes_Predictability_and_Potential_for_Early_Warning_and_Actions.Pdf’
Figure 2: October-November-December 2018 seasonal rainfall forecast. Source; Kenya
Meteorological Department
The seasonal, monthly, seven days’ and five actions based on the forecast. To support FbA
days’ forecast bulletins indicate that these the forecast skill should go beyond the scientific
forecast should be used in conjunction with one and introduce stakeholder early actions
subsequent forecast updates issued by KMD. and associated avoidable losses and evaluate
This means users need to continuously the forecasts in terms of their potential to
monitor the forecasts provided. This provides reduce expected losses from extreme events.
an opportunity for users track the progress
of the level of certainty in an earlier forecast, 2.1 Challenges in using climate and
and use the latest information to update their weather forecasts
contingency plans.
2.1.1 Towards Forecast Based Preparedness
However, a long-standing issue with the (ForPAc) project
forecasts released by KMD is that they do not In an effort to understand why forecasts
include the skill of the forecast. In the absence produced by KMD are not effectively informing
of this, users do not know how skillful the the drought management process in Kenya, the
forecast is – for example, how many times the Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action
forecast is correct versus hence how many (ForPAc) project (Box 1) conducted a workshop
time they would be acting in vain if they took
in Kitui County, one of the Arid and Semi-Arid
Lands (ASAL) counties in Kenya. The aims of Limited technical capacity to interpret and use
the workshop were to map the current drought probabilistic forecasts in decision making.
management process and to understand the Seasonal climate forecasts, which are crucial
constraints to forecasts from informing the for planning and management of rain fed
process. agriculture with implications on food security,
are presented in form of probability, to cater
2.1.2 Challenges for the inherently chaotic nature of the
Current forecast production is not in sync atmosphere.
with drought planning and decision making
processes The probabilities indicate the likelihood of the
seasonal total rainfall being above normal,
Every year, NDMA conducts two assessments normal and below normal. The tendency is for
namely, the Short Rains Assessment (SRA) and stakeholders to consider the highest probability
the Long Rains Assessment (LRA) which aim to in decisions and actions, often disregarding
analyze and determine the impact of the Long other lower probabilities. Further, it is not
(March-May) and Short (October-December) always known what ‘normal’ rainfall means
rain seasons on food and nutrition security, as for specific areas and the implications of this
well as the food security prognosis for the next amount of rainfall. This makes probabilistic
six months. Climate forecasts could inform the forecast complex to use in decision making,
food prognosis however; the forecasts are not hence technical guidance is required to
available at the time when assessments are interpret and incorporate the forecasts in
conducted. The Meteorological Department decision making. Most decision makers have
issues the Long rains forecast towards Mid- limited capacity to build scenarios that cater for
February while the Short rains forecast is the different probabilities.
issued in September, which are times when the
SRA and LRA have been concluded (Figure 3). For example, in OND and MAM 2018, the
Further, the seasonal forecasts are only for a category that had been forecasted with a
three-month period while the food prognosis low probability of occurrence is the one that
is for the next six months thus leaving a three actually occurred while stakeholders had
months’ gap in information. planned with the category with the highest
The project aims to address limitations to taking early action on climate information.
Firstly, by improving the availability of decision-relevant climate information by
piloting research forecasts for extreme flood and drought events. Secondly, the
project is promoting the use of climate information by identifying and addressing
barriers to preparedness action in existing early warning systems in Kenya.
The project’s pilot work on drought is currently focused on Kitui county. This aims
to promote systematic early action in the operational Drought Early Warning System
(DEWS) managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). Flood
focused case studies are also being undertaken in Nairobi County and the Nzoia River
basin.
Figure 3: Schematic of annual climate, livelihoods, drought risk management and seasonal forecasts
for Kitui county, developed with stakeholders
8
‘Bridging Forecast Verification and Humanitarian Decisions: A Valuation Approach for Setting up Action-Oriented Early Warnings
| Elsevier Enhanced Reader’ <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.006>.
Strengthen the mandate of County Directors of
Meteorological Services.
For forecasts to reach users, especially in
Counties, in a timely manner, the County
Directors Meteorological Services in all
Counties need to be semi-autonomous. This
will give them the mandate to provide County
specific forecasts without having to wait for
the forecasts produced at KMD headquarters.
There is opportunity for this to be integrated in
the draft Meteorological Bill.
3.3 Conclusion