Phinc 1

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Table of Contents
Foreword ix
Executive Summary xi
Introduction 1
Chapter I - National Circumstances 3
Geography 3
Topography 3
Climate and Weather 6
Natural Resources 8
Forest Lands
Agricultural Lands
Wetlands
Biological Diversity
Water Resources
Coastal Resources
Demography/Population Trends 14
Health 15
Economy 17
Energy Production and Consumption 17
Supply and Production
Consumption
Political Units 19
National Coordination Mechanism on Climate Change 19
Chapter II - 1994 National GHG Inventory 21
Methodology 21
Summary of Results 24
Sectoral Contributions 25
Energy
Industry
Agriculture
Wastes
Land Use Change and Forestry
Emission Projections 27
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Chapter III - General Description of Steps 31
Sustainable Development Program 31

The Philippine Strategy on Sustainable Development
Research and Systematic Observation 32
Data Collection and Monitoring
Research Activities
Education, Training and Public Awareness 40
Vulnerability Assessment 43
Simulation Models Used
Local Trends and Impacts
Temperature and Rainfall
Agriculture
Water Resources
Coastal Resources
Energy
Forestry
Health
Adaptation Strategies 63
Agriculture
Coastal Resources
Water Resources
Mitigation Strategies 75
Chapter IV - Financial and Technological Needs

and Constraints 83
Issues and Concerns 83
Bibliography/References 91
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Map of the Philippines

Figure 1.2 Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Passage Over Each of the
Geographical Zones in the Philippines
Figure 1.3 1996 Agricultural Resources
Figure 1.4 IACCC Organizational Structure
Figure 2.1 1994 GHG Emissions from the Four Non-LUCF Sectors
of Energy, Agriculture, Industry and Waste
Figure 2.2 Net GHG Emissions with the LUCF Sector
Figure 2.3 GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector
Figure 2.4 GHG Emissions from the Industry Sector
Figure 2.5 GHG Emissions from the Agriculture Sector
Figure 2.6 GHG Emissions from the Waste Sector
Figure 2.7 GHG Emissions and Sinks in the LUCF Sector
Figure 2.8 Philippine GHG Emissions for 1994 and 2008
Figure 3.1 Organizational Structure of the PCSD

Figure 3.2 Location of PAGASA Synoptic Stations
Figure 3.3 Location of PAGASA Upper Air Observation Stations
Figure 3.4 Location of Storm Surge Monitoring Stations and Ocean Buoys
Figure 3.5 Location of PAGASA Agro-Meteorological Stations
Figure 3.6 Areas Inventoried for Physical and Natural Systems Responses
Figure 3.7 Location of Tide Gauge Stations in the Philippines
Figure 3.8 Annual Mean Sea Level for Five Primary Stations
Figure 3.9 Average of Sample Coefficients of Multiple Determination
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Drought Events – Areas Affected and Degree of Severity in the
Philippines During the Last Three (3) Decades
Table 1.2 Morbidity: Ten Leading Causes, Number and Rate/100,000 Population,
1989 –1993 Average and 1994
Table 1.3 Mortality: Ten Leading Causes, Number and Rate/ 100,000 Population,
1989 – 1993 Average and 1994
Table 2.1 IPCC Equivalent of Local Fuel Types

Table 2.2 IRRI Default Parameter Values and Methane Emission Factor
for Rice Paddy Cultivation
Table 2.3 Local Values for Methane Emissions from Domestic/Commercial Wastewater
Based on the IEPC/EMS Study
Table 2.4 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory Results
Table 2.5 Projected Consumption of Coal, Oil and Natural Gas and the
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Corresponding CO2 Emissions by the Year 2008
Table 2.6 Projected CO2 Emissions from Cement and Steel Industries by the Year 2008
Table 2.7 Baseline and Projected Waste Emissions
Table 3.1 Temperature Change and Rainfall Ratio by Water Resource Region
Based on the Canadian Climate Center Model (2 x CO2 Scenario)
Table 3.2 List of Sites Used in Simulations for the Vulnerability Assessment
for Rice and Corn Production (Philippine Country Study Project)
Table 3.3 Change in Yield and Maturity Period for Selected Climate Scenarios
(V and A Assessment for Rice and Corn Production)
Table 3.4 Estimated Changes in Rice Production for the Philippines
Table 3.5 CO2 Concentration Values at Different Growth Stages
Table 3.6 Response of Rice to Elevated CO2 and Temperature
Table 3.7 Changes in Precipitation, Temperature, and Runoff for Angat Water
Reservoir Based on the Three GCMs (2 x CO2 Scenario)
Table 3.8 Trend in Annual Mean Sea Level
Table 3.9 Areas Endangered by Sea Level Rise (For a Projected SLR of 100 cm)
Table 3.10 Summary of Identified Adaptation Measures for Angat Dam and Lake Lanao
Table 3.11 Summary of National Least Cost Abatement Strategy Initiatives
Table 3.12 Methane Mitigation Options in Rice Production
Table 4.1 GHG Inventory Sectoral Issues and Concerns

Table 4.2 Coastal Zone Information Needs for Adaptation
ABBREVIATIONS OF AGENCIES AND ENTITIES
ADB - Asian Development Bank

AHAM - Association of Home Appliances Manufacturers
ANEC - Affiliated Non-Conventional Energy Centers
BEAP - Biomass Energy Association of the Philippines
BFAR - Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources
BPS - Bureau of Product Standards
CGSD - Coast and Geodetic Survey Department
COP - Conference of the Parties
DA - Department of Agriculture
DAR - Department of Agrarian Reform
DENR - Department of Environment and Natural Resources
DOE - Department of Energy
DOH - Department of Health
EMB - Environmental Management Bureau
FMB - Forest Management Bureau
GEF - Global Environment Facility
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HIS - Health Intelligence Service
IACCC - Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change
IPCC - Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change
IRRI - International Rice Research Institute
JICA - Japan International Cooperation Agency
NAMRIA - National Mapping Resources and Information Administration
NDRB - National Disaster Reduction Branch
PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Admistration
PSES - Philippinje Solar Energy Society
UNDP - United Nations Development Programme
UNEP - United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC - United nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USAID - United States Agency for International Development
WEAP - Wind Energy Association of the Philippines
WMO - World Meteorological Organization
OTHER ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS USED
ALGAS - Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy

ASLR - Accelerated Sea Level Rise
BCF - Billion Cubic Feet
BFOE - Barrel of Fuel Oil Equivalent
BOD - Biochemical Oxygen Demand
o
C - Degree Centigrade
CCCM - Canadian Climate Center Model
CERES - Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis
CH - Methane
4
CO - Carbon Dioxide
2
DES - Decentralized Energy Systems
DSM - Deman Side Management
DSSAT - Decision Support System for Agrotechnology
EEZ - Exclusive Economic Zone
ENSO - El Niño-Southern Oscillation
E.O. - Executive Order
GCM - Global Circulation Model
GDP - Gross Domestic Product
GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory Model
Gg - Gigagram
GHG - Greenhouse Gas
GISS - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
GNP - Gross National Product
GWH - Gigawatt-hour
GWP - Global Warming Potential
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Ha - Hectares
HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons
HRIP - Heat Rate Improvement of Power Plants
IBSNAT - International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology
IEPC/EMS- Industrial Efficiency and Pollution Control/
Environmental Management Strategy
Ktons - Kilotons
KPA - Key Production Area
M - Meter
MCM - Million Cubic Meters
Mha - Million Hectares
MMBFOE - Million Barrels of Fuel Oil Equivalent
MMBO - Million Barrels of Oil
MMT - Million Metric Tons
MPFD - Master Plan for Forestry Development
MTADP - Medium Term Agriculatural Development Plan
MW - Megawatt
NAP - National Action Plan
NCR - National Capital Region
NMVOC - Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound
N2O - Nitrous Oxide
NOx - Nitrogen Oxides
NRE - New and Renewable Energy
PEP - Philippine Energy Plan
PHP - Philippine Pesos
PRCS - Philippine Road Classification Study
RA - Republic Act
RH - Relative Humidity
SIMRIW - Simulation Model for Rice-Weather Relations
SLR - Sea Level Rise
SLRP - System Loss Reduction Program
SO2 - Sulfur Dioxide
sq.km. - Square Kilometer
TLA - Timber License Agreement
TTED-DLF- Technology Transfer for Energy Development - Demonstration Loan Fund
UKMO - United Kingdom Meteorological Office
V&A - Vulnerability and Adaptation
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Foreword
C limate change is a very emotional subject for the Philippines because the issue is viewed not
only as causing additional economic burdens, but as a critical factor that would determine its survival
as a nation. Many of its people are in the coastal areas and at risk from the impacts of extreme climatic
events, sea level rise and degradation of marine ecosystems. The effects of climate change on agricul-
ture, forestry and water resources will further encumber a country already reeling from a host of socio-
economic and environmental problems.
As a country Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
however, the Philippines stands ready to comply with its obligations, foremost of which is the submis-
sion of its Initial National Communication. We are, therefore, very pleased to share the document with
the international community, because it represents the collective efforts of the government and the
private sector.
The report documents not only compliance to our main commitments, particularly the national
greenhouse gas inventory, but also voluntary efforts on greenhouse gas abatement. The rest of the
report gives a sampling of how vulnerable the Philippines is to the impacts of climate change based on
initial studies, including the resource needs to adapt to these impending ecological changes.
We would like to underscore the fact that while significant gains have been made in terms of
developing and strengthening the processes and institutions involved in producing the country’s na-
tional communication, a lot of work still needs to be done. These would include: institutionalization of
the greenhouse gas inventory process in the various concerned government agencies, harnessing the
contribution of the academe, development and refinement of activity data and emission factors, as well
as, conduct of more vulnerability and adaptation studies.
Obtaining a comprehensive picture on how the climate change problem is evolving, requires
full disclosure of vital information from all parties of the Convention. For most, particularly the devel-
oping ones, this would mean a long and painstaking process, needing the establishment of mechanisms
and utilization of precious resources.
But as the adage goes, a journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step. And the Philip-
pines has taken the critical and most important one. Along with other committed country Parties of the
UNFCCC, it stands ready to complete the process
DENR Secretary
Chair, Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change
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Executive Summary
A s a country Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC), the Philippines is bound by its commitment to prepare and submit
its National Communication on Climate Change. The preparation was made possible
under the project PHI/97/G31 entitled “Enabling the Philippines to Prepare Its First
National Communication in Response to Its Commitment to the UNFCCC,” with fi-
nancial assistance from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) through the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Initial National Communication con-
tains a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks
of greenhouse gases, a description of steps taken or envisaged by the country to imple-
ment its commitment, and other information relevant to the achievement of the objec-
tive of the Convention.
National Circumstances
Geography and Topography Climate and Weather
The Philippines, as an archipelago, is The Philippines has a humid equatorial

highly vulnerable to the potential impacts of cli- climate marked by high temperatures and heavy
mate change. Geographically, the country is con- annual rainfall. It is located within the region of
sidered a medium-size nation with a total area of ascending air and widespread equatorial cloudi-
299,404 square kilometers. The Philippines lies ness. Annual rainfall measures as much as 5,000
between 5o to 20o north of the equator. It has 7,107 millimeters in the mountainous parts of the coun-
islands and rocks, 1,000 of which are inhabitable. try, but less than 1,000 millimeters in some of the
There are three (3) major island groups in the coun- sheltered valleys. The mean annual temperature
try, namely: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. The is about 27oC. The hottest months are April, May
country’s topography is characterized by large and June while the coldest months are December,
mountainous terrain with narrow coastal plains and January and February. In general, the highest tem-
interior valleys and plains. peratures are observed in valleys and plains. The
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highest temperature recorded in the Philippines planted to rice; 21.1 % percent to corn; 23.9 % to
was 42.2 oC while the absolute minimum tempera- coconut; and 25.5 % to sugar cane, cassava, ba-
ture was 3.0oC. On the average, the prevailing wind nana, and others.
in the Philippines from October to February is
northeasterly (coming from the northeast, or
amihan), easterly from March to May due to the Wetlands
Pacific trade winds, and southwesterly (habagat)
from June to September. In terms of tropical cy- Philippine wetlands of international impor-
clones, the Philippines experiences about 20 tropi- tance cover about 14,100 sq. km. consisting of 61
cal cyclones annually. coastal wetlands, 22 lakes, and 8 freshwater
swamps and marshes. Sixty-nine percent of these
are in the moderately to highly threatened status.
Natural Resources
Biological Diversity
Forest Lands
The complex history of sedimentation,
The country has a total of about 15 mil- submergence, folding, metamorphism, igneous
lion hectares of forest lands and 14.12 million activity, uplift, and erosion has influenced the com-
hectares of alienable and disposal lands. Unfortu- position and distribution of present-day flora and
nately, the Philippine forests, considered among fauna. There are at least 14,500 plant species, rep-
the most diverse in the world, are also among the resenting about five percent of the world’s flora.
most endangered. The country’s forest cover has The research conducted by various scientists be-
been steadily dwindling, at an average rate of 2 tween 1950 and 1995 show that there are about
percent per annum. As of 1997, the Philippines 185 species of mammals, 558 species of birds, 252
has only about 5.4 million hectares of remaining species of reptiles, 95 species of amphibians, 54
forests left, a mere 18 percent of the country’s to- species of millipedes, 44 species of centipedes,
tal land area. Of these, about 804,900 hectares of 341 species of spiders, 2,782 species of mollusks,
old growth forest remain, from the 27.5 million and more than 20,000 species of insects. Marine
hectares in 1575. species include 488 species of corals, about 2,400
species of protozoans, and 6 species of seagrasses.
As of 1991, 89 species of birds, 44 species of
Agricultural Lands mammals, and 8 species of reptiles are interna-
tionally recognized as threatened. These species
Agriculture is the country’s economic life- include the Philippine Eagle (Pithecophaga
line, but agricultural production in the Philippines jefferyi) and the Tamaraw (Bubalus mindorensis).
has been traditionally concentrated on only a few
main crops, particularly, rice and corn. Coconut
and sugar cane constitute important export com- Water Resources
modities. Almost ninety percent (90%) of the
alienable and disposable lands are devoted to ag- The country is classified into 12 water re-
ricultural production. An estimated 45% of these sources regions, which are defined by hydrologi-
agricultural lands are located in the lowlands and cal boundaries, physiographic features and climate
33 percent in the uplands. In 1996, of the 12.94 homogeneity. There are 343 independent princi-
million hectares of agricultural lands, 30.5% are pal river basins with areas of at least 40 sq. km.
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each, covering a total of 199,637 sq. km. or 66.5 Philippines, still being predominantly rural, has
percent of the country’s total land area. Of these, more than half of its population residing in the
20 are major river basins each covering at least rural areas. However, the proportion of the urban
990 sq. km. These are sources of municipal and population increased from 37.44 percent in 1980
domestic water supply, irrigation, and power gen- to 48.5 percent in 1990. In 1996, the total urban
eration. Likewise, the Philippines has 61 lakes population constituted 55% of the total national
totaling more than 2,000 sq. km., 23 of which have population.
areas more than 100 hectares. The country also
has extensive groundwater resources estimated to
cover an aggregate area of 50,000-sq. km. and stor- Health
age of about 251,158 MCM.
During the period 1992-1997, life expect-
ancy increased from 66.5 years to 68.0 years. The
Coastal Resources basic health indicators also improved over the span
of (6) years. The morbidity and mortality trends
Philippine marine territorial waters cover of communicable diseases, in particular, acute res-
about 2.2 million sq. km., of which 267,000 sq. piratory infections such as pneumonia, bronchitis
km. (12 percent) are coastal waters and 1.934 mil- and influenza decreased in the past six (6) years.
lion sq. km. (88 percent) are oceanic waters within The incidence of sanitation-related diseases asso-
the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). There are ciated with unsafe water supply, poor sanitation
about 185,000 sq. km. of shelf area within a 200- coupled with improper food handling, i.e., diar-
m depth. The country’s total discontinuous coast- rhea, cholera, typhoid and intestinal parasitism was
line is approximately 32,400 kilometers with also reduced. The incidence of measles, pertus-
eighty percent of the provinces and 65 percent of sis, neonatal tetanus and diphtheria likewise
the cities and municipalities sharing the coast. marked improvement. Chronic communicable dis-
There are 20 landlocked straits and 61 natural har- eases are also on the decline. Although there was
bors. The Philippine coral reefs cover about 27,000 an improvement in the incidence and prevalence
sq. km. within a 15- to 30-m depth. These reefs of tuberculosis in the Philippines, it remains a se-
yield 10-15 percent of the total annual fish pro- rious public health problem. Leprosy also declined,
duction. Unfortunately, the Philippine coral reefs its prevalence rate decreased from 2.39 to 1.2 per
continue to be degraded and destroyed. 10,000 population in 1997.
Demography/Population Trends Economy
The national population was declared at The gross national product and gross do-
68,616,536 in 1995 and was estimated to be mestic product have recovered from the stagna-
73,527,000 in 1997. The country’s population is tion in 1991 and have been on an upward trend
projected to reach 126 million by 2020. The Phil- until 1996. GNP grew to 6.9% and GDP, 5.7% in
ippines is considered the 9th most populous coun- 1996. Despite the Asian currency turmoil that sur-
try in Asia and the 14th largest country in the world. faced in July 1997, the country still managed to
Population density increased from 160 persons per have a 5.8% and 5.1% annual growth rate for GNP
square kilometer in 1980 to 228 in 1995. There and GDP, respectively. In 1994, gross national
are 28 provinces with 102 municipalities located product (GNP) was pegged at US$65.661 billion
in coastal areas occupying 129,114 hectares. The and gross domestic product (GDP) at US$ 64.018
xiii
billion. The GDP per capita was pegged at
US$954.92. Exports reached a total of US$ 21.650 National Coordination Mechanism
billion while imports were at US$ 25.688 billion. on Climate Change
Energy Production and Consumption The Philippines was among the first coun-
tries to respond to the challenge of the climate
change phenomenon. As early as May 8, 1991
Imported coal and crude oil, accounting the Philippine government created the Inter-agency
for 73.60% of the total energy supply in 1995 pro- Committee on Climate Change (IACCC) by vir-
vide a bulk of the country’s energy supply. Con- tue of Administrative Order No. 220. The IACCC
ventional (oil, coal, hydro, geothermal) and non- is composed of 15 government agencies and NGO
conventional indigenous sources (bagasse, agri- representatives. The IACCC was established to
waste, others) comprise the remaining 26.40% of coordinate various climate change related activi-
the total national energy supply. The Philippines ties, propose climate change policies and prepare
has a number of indigenous resource options, but the Philippine positions to the UNFCCC negotia-
most of these remain largely unexplored and tions. The IACCC is co-chaired by the Secretary
underexploited. The country has estimated re- of the Department of Environment and Natural
serves of about 400 million barrels of oil and 4.5 Resources with the Secretary of the Department
trillion standard cubic feet of natural gas. Geo- of Science and Technology.
thermal energy is one indigenous resource that
abounds in the country with potential reserves
conservatively estimated at 4,000 MW. In terms 1994 National GHG Inventory
of energy consumption, there was an upward trend
from 1990 to 1995. Moderate growth was posted
for the period, with a steep increase in energy con- In 1994, the Philippines released a total
sumption from 1993 to 1995. A total of 138.32 equivalent amount of 100,738 ktons of CO2 into
million barrels of fuel oil equivalent (MMBFOE) the atmosphere. This is due to the combined ef-
was consumed in 1993, 146.85 MMBFOE in 1994, fect of GHG emissions from the four sectors of
and 159.85 MMBFOE in 1995. The energy to GDP Energy, Industry, Agriculture, and Wastes, and the
ratio grew steadily from 0.17 BFOE/000 GDP in net uptake (sink) of GHGs from the LUCF sector.
1990 to 0.20 BFOE/000 GDP in 1995. During In the global context, this national amount is still
the same period, the country posted an average minimal relative to the GHG emissions of other
energy intensity of 0.18 BFOE per thousand GDP. nations, especially those of developed country
parties to the UNFCCC.
Political Units Without the contribution of the still con-

troversial LUCF sector, the national GHG total
amounts to 100,864 ktons of equivalent CO2. Of
Administratively, the country is divided the four non-LUCF sectors responsible for the
into 16 political regions. As of April 1998, the country’s sources of GHGs, the Energy sector is
Commission on Elections listed 78 provinces, 85 the most significant, accounting for about 49% of
cities and 1,525 municipalities. The smallest po- the national total. This is trailed closely by the
litical unit is the barangay, of which there are Agriculture sector’s contribution of about 33%.
41,925. Industry and Wastes follow with respective con-
xiv
tributions of 11% and 7% of the total. In contrast observation stations operated and maintained by
with these four sectors which act as GHG sources, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astro-
activities and processes associated with the LUCF nomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
sector are estimated to sequester about 126 ktons These networks include synoptic weather stations,
of CO2, which is seemingly insignificant (0.1%), upper-air stations, hydrometeorological/flood fore-
compared to the national total. casting/storm surge stations, agrometeorological/
climatological stations, marine observing systems
and special observation stations for air quality in-
GHG Emissions Projections For 2008 cluding ozone monitoring. Completed climate re-
lated researches include: Epidemiological Study
for Metro Manila Using Climate Variability; Coun-
The country’s future GHG emissions for try Study to Address Climate Change Issues and
2008 were calculated by projecting only those Concerns; and Investigation on Systems Re-
subsectors that had significant contributions to the sponses to Sea Level Changes of Some Selected
sectoral subtotals. With all other emissions from Locations in the Philippines. On-going researches
the other subsectors pegged conservatively at their are the Development of a Climate Information
1994 values, the national GHG emissions total Monitoring and Prediction System, and Climato-
from all five sectors is projected to increase to logical Study on the Changes in the Tropical Cy-
195,091 ktons of equivalent CO2. This constitutes clone Intensity in the Philippine Area of Respon-
a rise of 94% relative to the 1994 total of 100,738 sibility. About six (6) research studies are envi-
ktons in a matter of 14 years, or an annual growth sioned to be undertaken in the future.
rate of 4.8%. Baseline and projected GHG emis-
sions are shown in Figure 3.1. Because various Many activities are likewise being under-
subsectors were held constant at 1994 levels, this taken for the education, training and awareness
2008 projection may be a conservative estimate. raising of the public on climate change issues. The
government, industry and non-government orga-
nizations, with assistance from various interna-
General Description of Steps tional organizations, extending efforts to inform
and educate the general public on the possible
adverse impacts of climate change.
The Philippines has adopted the Philippine
Strategy for Sustainable Development (PSSD) The Philippines, being an archipelagic
which serves as the blueprint for the country’s country with a prevailing tropical climate, would
sustainable development efforts, as well as, the be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate
Philippine Agenda 21 (PA 21). The PA 21 “envi- change. Based on this premise, vulnerability
sions a better quality of life for all, the develop- assessment(s) on some sectors have been under-
ment of a just, moral, creative, spiritual, economi- taken. At least four Global Circulation Models
cally vibrant, caring, diverse yet cohesive society (GCMs) at double CO2 concentration scenario
characterized by appropriate productivity, partici- were used for these studies. In agriculture, the
patory and democratic processes and living in har- simulation results showed that while a general
mony within the limits of the carrying capacity of increase in yield for rice was noted, maturity pe-
nature and the integrity of creation.” riod decreased. For corn, the simulation showed a
decrease in yield. In the water resources sector,
For systematic observation on climate and vulnerability studies were done on two major wa-
ter resources, namely: the Angat reservoir and
weather, the Philippines has a number of network
xv
Lanao Lake. Results showed that Angat reservoir gation measures to limit its GHG emissions. These
is projected to be seriously affected. Similar re- measures are reflected in the various sectoral plans,
sults have been predicted for the Lanao Lake. particularly those of the Energy, Transport and
Vulnerability assessment for coastal resources Agriculture sectors, and the National Action Plan
generally showed that given the existing situation, on Climate Change which is still to be adopted.
anthropogenic global warming due to increasing
GHG emissions which may lead to accelerated sea
level rise (ASLR) will exacerbate the vulnerabil- Financial, Technological Needs
ity of the coastal ecosystems. Likewise, many ar- and Constraints
eas along the coast will succumb to a one-meter
sea level rise. In the forestry sector, prediction(s)
indicate that changes in rainfall pattern may in- The Philippines is faced with many con-
crease rate of conversion of forest(s) to agricul- straints in implementing its commitments under
tural lands due to human migration from areas the Convention. On the national inventory of GHG
degraded by drought and erosion to more produc- emissions, among the main issues and concerns
tive forest lands. A decrease in soil moisture in are the availability, reliability and variability of
drier areas may accelerate forest loss while an in- activity data and local emission factors, and insti-
crease in precipitation beyond evaporation demand tutionalization and linkages among government
could increase runoff resulting in soil erosion and agencies of the inventory process.
flood occurrences. The local biodiversity will also
decrease through extinction and inhibition of
Among the main issues confronting the
reimmigration from adjacent areas. Preliminary
Philippines involving mitigation of greenhouse
results of the health study conducted showed that,
gases is the affordability of the technologies it pre-
indeed, there is an indicative trend of about 10%
fers to use, e.g. utilization of renewables in power
to 58% association between climate change (us-
ing crude measurement) and health (as indicated production. In view of this, interventions in terms
by disease incidence). However, the results need of overcoming market barriers for the widespread
to be validated and, therefore, more studies must use of renewables need to be undertaken. Also,
be undertaken. more applications should be implemented to gain
field experience and additional operating data.
Adaptation measures and strategies were
initially identified based on the vulnerability as- For vulnerability assessment and adapta-
sessments made in the various sectors to cope with tion, the studies conducted were limited and, there-
the impending impacts of climate change in the fore, more in-depth studies must be undertaken to
country. The measures were derived from various enable the country to prepare and develop appro-
sectoral consultations, as well as, a review of ex- priate measures and actions with regards to the
isting policies and measures within the respective possible impacts of climate change. Considering
sector. the current economic condition of the country,
outside or international assistance is highly im-
Under the UNFCCC, although it is the perative to conduct these activities.
developed country Parties which have the primary
responsibility to adopt policies and measures to
limit their anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gases and report these to the Conference of the
Parties for its review, the Philippine government
has formulated and has started to implement miti-
xvi
Chapter I - National Circumstances
Introduction
Pursuant to Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC), parties are to “communicate to the Conference of the Parties (COP)
information related to the implementation of commitments, in accordance with Article
12.” Article 12.5 of the UNFCCC specifies that developing country Parties shall submit
their initial communication “within three years of entry into force of the Convention” or
upon availability of financial resources in accordance with Article 4.3. The said provi-
sion cites that Annex II country Parties shall provide new and additional financial re-
sources to meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing country Parties in preparing
their national communications. The Philippines formally availed of such resources on
April 1, 1998 from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) through the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) under the project PHI/97/G31 entitled “Enabling the
Philippines to Prepare Its First National Communication Programme in Response to Its
Commitment to the UNFCCC.”
According to Article 12.1 of the Convention, the following general information

are to be contained in the National Communications of non-Annex I country Parties to
be submitted to the COP:
a.) a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals

by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol;
b.) a general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement

the Convention; and
c.) any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement
of the objective of the Convention.
The Conference of Parties elucidated on this further through Decision 10/CP.2

on “Guidelines, Facilitation and Process for Consideration of Communications from
Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention.”
It must be underscored that this initial national communication, while drawing

heavily on the results of PHI/97/G31, also took into consideration the outcomes of some
earlier initiatives like the Country Studies Program, the National Action Plan on Cli-
mate Change, the Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy and the sectoral
plans & programs, as well as, the Medium Term Development Plan and the Philippine
Agenda 21.
1
2
Chapter I
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES
T he Philippines, as an archipelago, is highly vulnerable to the potential impacts of

climate change. At the same time, the country’s tropical climate, regional differences,
land use patterns, high rate of population growth, poor economic conditions, political
environment, and lifestyles all serve to create a high demand of energy, with its associ-
ated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
lands are inhabited. The 16 largest islands are

Geography Luzon, Mindanao, Palawan, Mindoro, Panay,
Samar, Negros, Leyte, Cebu, Masbate, Bohol,
Catanduanes, Basilan, Marinduque, Busuanga,
Considered as a medium-size country, the and Sulu.
Philippines ranks 57 th in the world, with its
299,404 square kilometers constituting approxi-
mately 2 percent of the world’s total land area. Topography
The Philippine archipelago stretches 1,840

km north-south between 4°9’ and 21°7’ north of The Philippines has not always been where
the equator. Its westernmost boundary is at longi- it is and not all of its islands belong to one dis-
tude 116°4’ E while the eastern territorial limit is tinctly linked system. This archipelago has varied
along the 127° E meridian. The archipelago com- geologic origins and possesses unique biological
prises a total of 7,107 islands spread over the 2.2 attributes. By combining paleomagnetic and ra-
million sq. km. of water within its exclusive eco- diometric data, scientists are slowly piecing to-
nomic zone. Its long discontinuous coastline is ap- gether the genesis of the Philippines. The emerg-
proximately 32,400 km, second only to Indonesia ing picture is not one of slow static accretion of
with its more than 16,000 islands. Three seas material but rather of dynamic shifting and colli-
bound the Philippines: the South China Sea on sion of plates, welded together in an island arc
the west and north, the Pacific Ocean on the East, and punctuated by episodic and extensive mag-
and the Celebes Sea and the coastal waters of matic activity.
Borneo on the south (See Figure 1.1).
Most of the archipelago belongs to the
Of the Philippines’ 7,107 islands and Philippine mobile belt, a composite strip of dif-
rocks, only 2,803 are named and nearly 1,000 is- ferent lithospheric blocks that grew during the Ter-
3
Figure 1.1 Map of the Philippines
4
tiary period, about 65 million years ago. Other The Philippine Fault is an active left-lat-
parts of the Philippine archipelago, including the eral strike-slip fault that stretches more than 1,200
Palawan Micro-continental block (Palawan and km from northern Luzon to southern Mindanao,
Mindoro) and Zamboanga, are marginal continen- and it has splays, or branches that connect to sev-
tal blocks of the Eurasian plate, which are collid- eral other faults. The presence of a major fault
ing eastward with the Philippine mobile belt. along the entire length of the archipelago accounts
for dramatic features of the country’s physical en-
The Philippine mobile belt is mainly a re- vironment. The Philippine Fault is always in mo-
sult of the oblique convergence of the Eurasian tion, moving at an average rate of 2 to 2.5 cm per
and Philippine Sea plates. This convergence pro- year. This movement, however, is not smooth. It
ceeds at a rate of about 8 cm per year. normally occurs as sudden episodes, or slips.
Many islands were once situated elsewhere The recent explosive awakening of Mount
or came from diverse tectonic origins and scien- Pinatubo in the province of Zambales suggests
tists are still studying their geologic births. These what sudden changes in global constitution can
findings may explain the differences in the island’s take place if the earth bursts into a volcanic aria.
physical features and endemic flora and fauna. This particular volcanic activity injected huge
They may also explain why the Philippines has amounts of particulates as high as 25 km up into
features in common with its Southeast Asian the stratosphere. Pinatubo’s eruption blanketed
neighbors. The geologic and tectonic evolution of most of Southeast Asia with ash, creating a dust
the Philippines resulted from convergence and in- cloud that slightly cooled the earth. Particulates
teraction among four major tectonic plates: the have long residence times in the stratosphere,
Continental Eurasian and Indian-Australian plates, hence, reduce the amount of solar radiation reach-
and the Oceanic Pacific and Philippine Sea plates. ing the earth’s surface, thereby causing global cool-
The convergence of these plates destroys crusts, ing.
creates volcanic chains, causes
earthquakes, produces trenches
and troughs, and develops the
geological stresses and distinc-
tive character of the Philippine
archipelago.
A largely mountainous
terrain, with narrow coastal
plains and interior valleys and
plains mark the country’s to-
pography. The northern Luzon
highlands, or Cordillera Cen-
tral, rise to between 2,500 and
2,750 meters, and, together
with the Sierra Madre in the
northeastern portion of Luzon
and the mountains of
Mindanao, boast rain forests Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 which produced huge amount of ash.
that provide refuge for numer-
ous upland tribal groups.
5
ages higher than 70 % relative humidity. High
Climate and Weather values of relative humidity are usually observed
at night and early morning; and low values, dur-
ing the day and early evening except when it is
Under the Koppen-Geiger regionalization raining.
of world climates, the Philippines has a humid
equatorial climate, which is marked by high tem- On the average, the prevailing wind in the
peratures and heavy annual average rainfall. Most Philippines from October to February is northeast-
areas close to the equator belong to this type of erly (coming from the northeast, or amihan), east-
climatic classification. The Philippines is located erly from March to May due to Pacific trade winds,
between 5o to 20o north of the equator. and southwesterly (habagat) from June to Sep-
tember. Changes in large-scale wind direction are
The Philippines is located within the re- due to the Asia monsoon, which is the change in
gion of ascending air and widespread equatorial air circulation over Asia due to differential heat-
cloudiness. Annual rainfall measures as much as ing between the Asian mainland centered over the
5,000 millimeters in the mountainous parts of the
Tibetan plateau and the surrounding oceans. How-
country, but less than 1,000 millimeters in some
ever, local topography and diurnal effects may
of the sheltered valleys. The different rainfall-caus-
produce prevailing winds, which deviate some-
ing weather patterns are tropical cyclones, mon-
what from the winds that might be expected.
soon, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, fronts;
easterly waves, air stream, local convection, etc.
The northwest Pacific basin, where the
The Philippines generally has high tem- Philippines is located, has the highest percentage
perature because of its tropical maritime setting of cyclone development, estimated to account for
and the warm air currents flowing over its land about 40 % of all cyclones globally. Tropical cy-
masses. The mean annual temperature is about 27 clones that affect the Philippines usually originate
o
C. The hottest months are April, May and June from low pressure areas over the Pacific Ocean.
while the coldest months are December, January They can also form in the South China Sea. The
and February. In general, the highest temperatures Philippines experiences about 20 tropical cyclones
are observed in valleys and plains. The highest annually. The tropical cyclone season is from June
temperature recorded in the Philippines was 42.2 to December, with an average monthly frequency
o
C in Tuguegarao, Cagayan Valley on April 29, of more than one tropical cyclone. The months of
1912 and on May 11, 1969. The absolute mini- July, August and September have the most fre-
mum temperature of 3.0oC was recorded in Janu- quent tropical cyclone occurrence with an aver-
ary of 1903 in Baguio, which has an elevation of age of more than three cyclones each month.
1,482 m.
The geographical zones of the country
Bodies of water are sources of humidity, have different frequencies of tropical cyclone pas-
and, as a result, maritime regions have a more sage as shown in Figure 1.2. Zone 2 which is lo-
humid atmosphere. Because of the warm moist cated in extreme northern Luzon, has the most fre-
air streams flowing through the archipelago, its quent passage of 5 tropical cyclones in 2 years.
surrounding seas, rich vegetation and abundant Zone 12 (Southern, Central and Western
rainfall, the humidity of the air throughout the Mindanao regions) has the least number of tropi-
country is high. The average annual relative hu- cal cyclone passage, with an occurrence of 1 cy-
midity for the whole country is about 82 % and clone in 12 years.
almost all weather stations record monthly aver-
6
FIGURE 1.2 Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Passage Over Each of the Geographical Zones in the Philippines
7
The most destructive typhoon occurred in nitude. The drought events during earlier El Niño
1990 when Ruping, packing maximum winds of episodes, area affected and the degree of severity
240 km per hour, caused an estimated P 10.85 bil- in the Philippines from the late 60s to the early
lion in damage. The strongest typhoon occurred 90s are presented in Table 1.1. The 1997-98 El
in 1970 when wind speeds of around 275 km per Niño episode was the worst in the century and
hour were recorded near the center of Typhoon caused the most damage in the country.
Sening when it passed over Virac, Catanduanes.
The inter-annual variability of the Philip- Natural Resources

pine climate is also highly affected by the El Niño
- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Cli-
matological studies showed that the major drought
events in the country are associated with the oc- Forest Lands
currences of ENSO. An analysis of the indices that
mark the ENSO phenomenon indicates that from
1935 to the present, eleven (11) ENSO events have Forestland is an area classified for forestry
occurred. Observation records show that rainfall purposes, usually with a slope of more than 18
deficiences or events associated with these ENSO percent. It is a legal and technical land category
episodes vary significantly in duration and mag- and, like alienable or disposable land, may or may
not actually have forest cover. As reported in 1997,
the country has a total of about 15
Table 1.1 Drought Events-Areas Affected and Degree of million hectares of forestlands and
Severity in the Philippines During the Last Four (4) Decades 14.12 million hectares of alienable
and disposal lands.
EVENTS SEV ER E M ODERATE
1 9 6 8 -1 9 6 9 B icol R est of th e P h ilip p in es
E x cep t R eg ion s 1 & 2 In the Philippines, forests are
1 9 7 2 -1 9 7 3 C en tr al L u z on V isaya s a n d M in d a n a o especially important as the country
1 9 7 6 -1 9 7 7 M in d a n a o
1 9 8 2 -1 9 8 3
consists of thousands of islands, each
a) O ct. 8 2 -M a r . 8 3 C en tr al L u z on R eg ion s 1 ,2 ,3 , a n d 5 a diverse, fragile ecosystem regularly
S ou th er n T ag a log buffeted by destructive typhoons and
N or th ern V isa ya s
W ester n M in d an ao erosive monsoon rains. Philippine
b) A p r . 8 3 -S ep . 8 3 R eg ion 2 a n d p a rts of forests could be classified into:
R eg ion 1 dipterocarp (65.6%), mossy (19.3%),
1 9 8 6 -1 9 8 7
a) O ct. 8 6 -M a r . 8 7 W estern L u z on sub-marginal (8.8%), pine (4.2%),
B icol R eg ion and mangrove (2.1%).
b) A p r . 8 7 -S ep . 8 7 M ost of L u z on
C en tra l V isa ya s
N orth eastern M in d a n a o Unfortunately, the Philippine
1 9 8 9 -1 9 9 0 forests, considered among the most
a) O ct. 8 9 - M ar 9 0 C a g a ya n V a lley
P a n a y Isla n d
diverse in the world, are also among
G u im a r a s the most endangered. The country’s
N or th ern P a law a n forest cover has been steadily dwin-
W ester n M in d an ao
1 9 9 1 -1 9 9 3 C om p a r able w ith th a t
dling, at an average rate of 2 percent
of 1 9 8 2 -1 9 8 3 per annum, resulting in adverse im-
1 9 9 4 -1 9 9 5 R eg ion s 1 ,2 ,3 , N C R , 5 V isaya s a n d W estern pacts to the environment and short-
a n d P a la w a n M in d a n a o
G1 9 9 7 -1 9 9 8 T h e w h ole of P h ilip p in es
age in raw materials supply for the
8
wood-based industries. The principal causes have first stage, from the late Spanish period to the late
been illegal logging, shifting cultivation or 1950s, large expanses of forests were cleared to
kaingin, forest fires, natural calamities, as well as, make way for the farms and settlements of the
conversion to agricultural lands, human settle- country’s rapidly growing population. During the
ments, and other land uses brought about by ur- second stage, from the early 1960s to the mid
banization and increasing population pressure. 1970s, large-scale commercial logging and min-
ing accelerated as the country attempted to develop
As of 1997, the Philippines has only about its economy, based mainly on the export of natu-
5.4 million hectares of remaining forests, a mere ral resources, as well as, on agriculture.
18 percent of the country’s total land area. Of these,
about 804,900 hectares are old growth forests from From 1991 to 1995, the annual average rate
the 27.5 million hectares (virgin forests) in year of deforestation was 130,000 hectares. With the
1575. depletion of forest resources, local economies built
on forest wealth were forced to shift to other
The remaining forest cover are as follows: sources of livelihood or else endure poverty. For-
est protection, species conservation, and refores-
Mangrove – 112,400 hectares; Old growth diptero-
tation characterize the third stage. The government
carp forests – 804,900 hectares; Residual diptero-
reversed its former policy of free market forest
carp forests - 2.73 million hectares; Pine forests –
exploitation when it realized the acute impact of
227,900 hectares; Mossy forests - 1.04 million
massive forest depletion and denudation of the up-
hectares; Sub-marginal lands – 475,100 hectares.
lands on the environment.
For the other forestland classifications; Brush-
lands - 2.23 million hectares; Grasslands - 9.01
million hectares; and Lands suitable for planta-
tion establishment - 7.05 million hectares. These
forests sustain the watersheds, which contain the
country’s freshwater supply. There are 120 pro-
claimed watersheds within the country’s forest-
lands with an aggregate area of more than 1.4 mil-
lion hectares.
Only about 1.8 million hectares of second

growth forest can remain in the timber production
system for long-term sustained production. About
one million hectares of this can be placed imme-
diately under community forest management.
Some 200,000 hectares are so degraded that they
are best converted into forest plantations of rub-
ber, rattan, and bamboo. About 400,000 hectares
of second growth forests and the remaining
804,900 hectares of old growth forests are best
set aside for biological diversity conservation and
environmental protection.
Philippine forestry has gone through two The country has only 804,900 hectares of old growth
stages of change and is now in a third stage. In the forests remaining.
9
The conversion of forest lands into farm- Rice, being the staple food of majority of
lands and the extraction of forest resources were the country’s population (more than eighty per-
major economic policies of the Philippine gov- cent) plays a dominant role in agriculture and the
ernment for quite sometime. During the third quar- country’s economy as a whole. At present, a total
ter of the century, the Philippines became known of 1.2 million hectares in 34 provinces are devoted
as the world’s largest exporter of timber. Its fame, to rice production. National figures indicate im-
however, did not result in fortune for most Filipi- pressive increases in rice production from the late
nos. Deforestation is the permanent scar left by 1970s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, national
badly managed forestry programs. yield average for rainfed areas is 1.9 tons per hect-
are while irrigated areas (56 percent of total rice
In the 1990s, the DENR completely lands) contribute a yearly production rate of 3.4
banned logging in old growth forests. It is phas- tons per hectare; thus, a combined national yield
ing out logging concessions under the timber li- of 2.8 tons per hectare.
cense agreement (TLA) system while making
more equitable the access and use of forest re- Rice production growth rate is at 2.33 per-
sources. Environmentally sustainable develop- cent compared to an almost similar growth rate of
ment of forest lands has become the government’s 2.4 percent in population. Projections are such that
guiding policy. with an increase in the country’s population and a
per capita requirement of 105 kg, a total amount
of 8,117 million tons of rice will be needed by the
Agricultural Lands year 2000 (Evangelista, 1997). To meet this de-
mand, 1,665 million hectares should be under ir-
rigation, producing an average of 5 tons/hectare
Agriculture is the country’s economic life- at 150% irrigation intensity. As a result, the coun-
line, but agricultural production in the Philippines try will most likely continue to depend on rice
has been traditionally concentrated on only a few imports for about 5 percent of its national require-
main crops, particularly, rice and corn. Only co- ments translating to around one percent of the to-
conut and sugar cane constitute important export tal national export.
commodities.
Figure 1.3 1996 Agricultural Resources
From 1960 – 1990, data showed that al-
most ninety percent (90%) of the alienable and
disposable lands were devoted to agricultural pro-
duction. Currently, a total of approximately 10.3 Tobacco,
Sugarcane
million hectares are devoted to agriculture. An Rice
&others
estimated 45% of these agricultural lands are lo- 24.5% 30.5%
cated in the lowlands and 33 percent in the up-
lands.
In 1996, of the 12.94 million hectares of

agricultural land, 30.5 percent is planted to rice;
21.1 percent to corn; 23.9 percent to coconut; and
24.5 percent to sugar cane, cassava, banana, and Coconut
others. 23.9% Corn
21.1%
10
Corn is the second
most important crop. A to-
tal of 700,000 hectares in
17 provinces have been
identified for corn. Corn is
the staple food of about 12
million Filipinos, and it
also accounts for about 70
percent of the ingredients
of the mixed feeds for live-
stock. Moreover, corn pro-
duction provides liveli-
hood to about 600,000
farm households and to
transport services, traders,
processors and agricultural
input suppliers. For the pe- Agriculture is the country’s economic lifeline.
riod 1995-2004, the com-
posite demand of corn for
food, feed and other industrial uses is projected to and Water Management and the Department of Ag-
grow annually by 3.94 percent. On the other hand, riculture, it was found out that conversion of agri-
average growth in corn production is expected to cultural land was taking place very rapidly. The
decrease annually by as much as 1.54 percent. If study estimated that irrigated rice lands were con-
present productivity levels are not improved sub- verted at an average rate of 2,267 hectares per
stantially, the country faces a shortage of about annum. The estimation done by Concepcion
3.26 MMT. The Department of Agriculture (DA) (1993) postulates that a hectare of irrigated land
traces this to low/inadequate production levels, is at least equivalent to 3 hectares of rainfed lands
slow adoption rate of modern technologies, loss and 5 hectares of ecologically fragile rolling up-
of land planted to corn by as much as 2.3% annu- land in terms of their capacity to produce the ba-
ally to growing demand for non-agricultural uses sic staples, feeds and other farm supplies. In 1991,
and other competing cash crops, inequitable poli- therefore, around 33,000-5,500 hectares of rainfed/
cies that create price and supply imbalances, in- rolling uplands have to be placed under cultiva-
adequate infrastructure support and other related tion to replace losses due to conversion of irri-
causes. gated rice lands.
Rapid urbanization has resulted in the in-

discriminate conversion of agricultural land to resi- Wetlands
dential, industrial, and commercial uses and may
undermine food security. Present statistics of le-
gal land conversion show that from 1990 to 1997, Philippine wetlands of international impor-
some 50,720 hectares have been allowed for con- tance cover about 14,100 sq. km. consisting of 61
version from agricultural to other uses with 18,657 coastal wetlands, 22 lakes, and 8 freshwater
hectares of these having been approved by the De- swamps and marshes. Sixty-nine percent (69%)
partment of Agrarian Reform (DAR). In a 1991 of these are in the moderately to highly threatened
nationwide study conducted by the Bureau of Soils status.
11
insects. Marine species include 488 species of cor-
Biological Diversity als, about 2,400 species of protozoans, and 6 spe-
cies of seagrasses.
The biological diversity of the Philippines In terms of endemicity, the Philippines has
is the product of millions of years of gradual evo- one of the highest numbers of endemic species of
lution. It traces its beginnings to the period when plants and animals. In fact, there are endemic spe-
the earth’s geophysical, climatological, and other cies found only in certain parts of the same island.
conditions became conducive to the existence of About 30 percent to 40 percent of the more than
life. Natural selection processes took place in re- 8,000 species of flowering plants are endemic to
sponse to environmental disturbances. The com- the archipelago and are mostly found in primary
plex history of sedimentation, submergence, fold- forests. However, only 28 of the more than 1,500
ing, metamorphism, igneous activity, uplift, and genera of flowering plants are considered endemic.
erosion is reflected in many parts of the present
archipelago and has influenced the composition Animal species, mostly insects, total about
and distribution of present-day flora and fauna. 170,000, about half of which are endemic. Terres-
trial vertebrate species number about 960 species
It is difficult to estimate how many species of of which 43 percent are endemic. There are nine
Philippine flora and fauna there are because there endemic bird areas in the Philippines identified
is no comprehensive or current inventory of even by the Birdlife International: the Luzon mountains,
the major biological niches and ecosystems of the the Luzon lowlands and foothills, Mindoro, Negros
country. However, based on available records, and Panay, Cebu, Palawan, Samar, Leyte, Bohol
(many dating back to the early 1900s), at least and Mindanao lowlands, Mindanao mountains,
35,000 species of plants and animals are found in and the Sulu archipelago. An endemic bird area is
the archipelago. one where two or more restricted range species of
land birds are confined.
There are at least 14,500 plant species, rep-
resenting about five percent of the world’s flora: As of 1991, 89 species of birds, 44 spe-
more than 8,000 flowering plants, 33 species of cies of mammals, and 8 species of reptiles are in-
gymnosperms, 1,011 ferns
and fern allies, 625 mosses,
790 lichens, 3,000 fungi,
and 1,145 algae. The re-
search conducted by various
scientists between 1950 and
1995 show that there are
about 185 species of mam-
mals, 558 species of birds,
252 species of reptiles, 95
species of amphibians, 54
species of millipedes, 44
species of centipedes, 341
species of spiders, 2,782 The Philippines has one of the highest numbers of endemic species of plants
species of mollusks, and and animals, many of which are endangered. Among these are: the Tamaraw
more than 20,000 species of and the Philippine Eagle.
12
ternationally recognized as threatened. These spe- The dependable yield of the total water re-
cies include the Philippine Eagle (Pithecophaga sources of the country add up to an aggregate of
jefferyi) and the Tamaraw (Bubalus mindorensis). 975 MCM per day (MCM/day) coming from sur-
face runoff (833 MCM/day) and groundwater safe
yield (142 MCM/day). However, due to uneven
Water Resources distribution of rainfall and differences in climatic
patterns, some regions in the country do not pos-
sess adequate water resources as compared with
The country is classified into 12 water re- other regions.
source regions, which are defined by hydrologi-
cal boundaries, physiographic features and climate Water demand is divided among three
homogeneity. major water users: the agricultural sector, the com-
mercial and industrial sectors, and domestic us-
There are 343 independent principal river ers. In 1997, the agricultural sector was the larg-
basins with areas of at least 40 sq. km. each, cov- est water user with demand amounting to 84 per-
ering a total of 199,637 sq. km. or 66.5 percent of cent of the total demand or 23, 652 MCM per an-
the country’s total land area. Of these, 20 are ma- num. The next largest user of water is the com-
jor river basins each covering at least 990 sq. km. mercial and industrial sector representing 8.2 per-
These are sources of municipal and domestic wa- cent of total water demand or 2,234 MCM per year.
ter supply, irrigation, and power generation. The However, this is a modest estimate as industries
country’s most extensive river systems are the usually tap groundwater for their processing and
Pulangi (Rio Grande), which flows into the cleaning operations. Domestic demand accounts
Mindanao River; the Agusan, in Mindanao which for only 7.8 percent or 2, 187 MCM per annum.
flows north into the Mindanao Sea; the Cagayan Given the rapid pace of development and the ever-
in northern Luzon; and the Pampanga, which increasing population, total demand is expected
flows south from east Central Luzon into Manila to increase by almost 8 percent per year to 35, 364
Bay. Only two rivers in the country, the Cagayan MCM per annum by the year 2000.
(Luzon) and Mindanao rivers, have drainage ar-
eas of more than 20,000-sq. km.
Coastal Resources
The Philippines has 61 lakes totaling more
than 2,000 sq. km., 23 of which have areas more
than 100 hectares. Laguna de Bay, located south- Coastal zones tend to be the most heavily
east of Manila Bay, is the largest freshwater lake used and abused part of the earth’s geography. This
in the Philippines and the second largest in South- is due to the numerous benefits and opportunities
east Asia. It covers an approximate area of 90,000 offered by coastal zones and the near-shore areas.
hectares and is fed by 23 tributaries. The natural system in the coastal zone supports
major economic activities, such as farming in the
The country also has an extensive ground- coastal lowlands, fishing and tourism, and pro-
water resource estimated to cover an aggregate vides human settlement with essential life support
area of 50,000-sq. km. and storage of about and development opportunities.
251,158 MCM. The safe yield or the amount of
groundwater available for abstraction without re- The Philippines’ coastal resources are var-
sorting to groundwater mining is estimated at ied and diverse, providing food and employment
31,554 MCM per annum. for a majority of the populace. About one million
13
people or 5 percent of the country’s labor force Unfortunately, the Philippine coral reefs
earn their living from fisheries. In 1994 alone, the continue to be degraded and destroyed. Only about
fishing industry generated approximately 81.2 bil- 5.3 percent of the country’s coral cover are con-
lion pesos, making the country the 12th largest fish sidered in excellent condition (75-100% live coral
producer in the world for that year. cover), 25.2 percent in good condition (50-74%
live coral cover), 39 percent in fair condition (25-
Philippine marine territorial waters cover 49.9% live coral cover), and 30.5 percent are in
about 2.2 million sq. km.; 267,000 sq. km. (12 poor condition (0-24% live coral cover).
percent) of these are coastal waters and 1.934 mil-
lion sq. km. (88 percent) are oceanic waters within The most important factors that negatively
the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). There are affect these ecosystems are siltation, deforestation,
about 185,000 sq. km. of shelf area within a 200- agricultural activities, and mine tailings, which
m depth. produce high sediment load.
The country’s total discontinuous coastline

is approximately 32,400 kilometers, one of the Demography/Population Trends
longest in the world. Eighty percent of the prov-
inces and 65 percent of cities and municipalities
share the coast. There are 20 landlocked straits As in many developing countries, a high
and 61 natural harbors (30 of which are devel- birth rate and gradually declining mortality rate
oped and fully operational). characterize the Philippine population. Therefore,
the growth in population is highly attributed to
The Philippine coral reefs cover about the natural increase or the excess of births over
27,000 sq. km. within a 15- to 30-m depth, one of deaths.
the largest in the world. These reefs yield 10-15
percent of the total annual fish production. The At the beginning of the 19th century, the
annual fish yield (excluding invertebrates) of Phil- Philippines had a population of slightly over 1.5
ippine reefs ranges from 5 to 24 metric tons per million. At the turn of the century, the population
sq. km. ballooned to 7 million, and by the middle of the
1900s, it had reached 20 mil-
lion. With an average annual
growth rate of 2.52 percent
for the period 1990-1995, the
national population was de-
clared at 68,616,536 in 1995
and was estimated to be
73,527,000 in 1997. Accord-
ing to the computer models
developed by the Commis-
sion on Population, the Uni-
versity of the Philippines
Population Institute and the
Futures Group, the country’s
population is estimated to
Philippine marine territorial waters cover about 2.2 million sq. km.
reach 126 million by 2020.
14
The Philippines is considered the 9th most popu- age growth rate of 3.5 percent followed by NCR
lous country in Asia and the 14th in the world. at 3.3 percent, Central Mindanao (2.8 percent) and
Southern Mindanao (2.6 percent). On the other
Only approximately 1,000 of its islands are hand, the Ilocos Region and Western Visayas have
populated, and less than one-half of these are larger the lowest annual average growth rate, both at 1.3
than 2.5 square kilometers. Population density in- percent. Southern Tagalog has the highest share
creased from 160 persons per square kilometer in of the national population at 28.3 percent or an
1980 to 228 in 1995. There are 28 provinces with equivalent of 19.3 million Filipinos (NCR in-
102 municipalities located in coastal areas occu- cluded). Other highly populated water resources
pying 129,114 hectares. In 1990, an estimated 2 regions are Central Luzon, Western Visayas, and
million people were living in coastal communi- Southern Mindanao.
ties and more than 9 million people are estimated
to inhabit the country’s forests.
Health
The Philippines, still being predominantly
rural, has more than half of its population resid-
ing in the rural areas. However, the proportion of Major improvements in the health of the
the urban population increased from 37.44 per- country’s population have been scored during the
cent in 1980 to 48.5 percent in 1990. In 1996, the last thirty years. However, their pace and scope
total urban population constituted 55% of the to- are now at risk of being overwhelmed by a grow-
tal national population. ing population, rapid urbanization, a constrained
economy and the various challenges to service
Though unsure of what lies ahead of them, delivery.
rural migrants take their chances in the cities where
wages are relatively higher, more educational op- During the period 1992-1997, life expect-
portunities exist for their children and utilities and ancy increased from 66.5 years to 68.0 years. The
basic services are readily available. This signifi- basic health indicators also improved over the span
cant trend in migration from village to city affected of (6) years. The crude birth rate declined to 28.4
population figures in the 1970s and the 1980s, per 1000 population from 31.12 in 1992 while the
which put extra stress on urban areas. In the early crude death rate decreased to 6.1 per 1000 popu-
1980s, thirty cities had 100,000 or more residents, lation in 1997. Infant mortality rate also declined
up from twenty-one in 1970. For Metro Manila from 53.6 in 1992 to 45.8 per 1000 live births in
alone, its population was 5,924,563, up from 1997. Maternal mortality rate likewise decreased
4,970,006 in 1975, marking an annual growth rate from 1.97 to 1.68 within the same period. Total
of 3.6 percent, which was far above the national fertility rate also declined from 4.08 to 3.61 births
average of 2.5 percent. Metro Manila’s rate of mi- per woman.
gration steadily increased from 4.53 percent in
1981 to 5.7 percent in 1988. Metro Manila, which The morbidity and mortality trends of com-
always posted the highest urban population in the municable diseases, in particular, acute respira-
country, was assessed by the United Nations as tory infections such as pneumonia, bronchitis and
the 23rd largest city in the world and is expected to influenza decreased in the past six (6) years. The
be the 16th largest by the year 2000. incidence of sanitation-related diseases associated
with unsafe water supply, poor sanitation coupled
During the last five years, Region IV with improper food handling, i.e., diarrhea, chol-
(Southern Tagalog) has the highest annual aver- era, typhoid and intestinal parasitism was also re-
15
duced. The incidence of measles, pertussis, neo- Tables 1.2 and 1.3 provide the 1994 ten
natal tetanus and diphtheria likewise marked im- leading causes of morbidity and mortality figures
provement. per 100,000 population in the Philippines com-
pared with the 5-Year Average during the period
Chronic communicable diseases are also 1989-1993.
generally on the decline. However, although there
was an improvement in the
incidence and prevalence Table 1.2 MORBIDITY: Ten Leading Causes, Number and Rate/
of tuberculosis in the Phil- 100,000 Population, 1989-1993 Average and 1994
ippines, it remains a seri- Leadin g C auses of 5-year A verage
ous public health problem.
M orbidity (1989-1993) 1994
Leprosy also declined, its
N um ber Rate N um ber Rate
prevalence rate decreased
from 2.39 to 1.2 per 1. D iarrh eal D iseases 1,011,922 1,590.6 1,376.669 2006.1
10,000 population in 1997. 2. Bron ch itis 887,935 1,395.7 1,140,366 1661.8
3. In fluen za 440,229 692.0 839,683 1223.6
Some insect-borne 4. Pn uem on ia 281,263 442.1 614,353 895.2
diseases though, such as 5. A cciden ts 128,866 202.6 211,092 307.6
dengue, have increased in 6. T uberculosis, all form s 156,456 245.9 167,763 244.5
some areas of the country 7. D iseases of th e H eart 87,789 138.0 141,295 205.9
but have been controlled 8. V aricella 35,305 55.5 76,526 111.5
because of the preventive 9. M alaria 67,612 106.3 58,627 85.4
health activities conducted 10. M align an t 33,740 53.0 49,531 72.2
by the DOH with the Lo-
cal Government Units and
the private sector. Malaria Table 1.3 MORTALITY: Ten Leading Causes, Number and Rate/
was eliminated in ten (10) 100,000 Population, 1989-1993 Average and 1994
provinces but is still en- 5-Year Average
demic in sixty four (64) Leading Causes of (1989-1993) 1994
provinces. Control mea- M ortality % of % of
sures such as environmen- Num ber Rate Total Num ber Rate Total
tal sanitation, spraying and Death Death
use of insecticide-impreg- 1. D iseases of the Heart 47,023 73.9 14.9 50,307 73.3 15.7
nated mosquito nets have 2. D iseases of the Vascular
reduced the incidence of System 34,635 54.4 11.0 39,191 57.1 12.2
Malaria. The Malaria mor- 3. Pneum onias 40,374 63.5 12.8 28,132 41.0 8.8
bidity rate registered a de- 4. M alignant Neoplasm s 23,168 36.4 7.4 28,110 41.0 8.7
5. Tuberculosis 24,271 38.2 7.7 27,292 39.8 8.5
cline from 147 in 1992 to
6. A ccidents 10,295 16.2 3.2 14,752 21.5 4.6
60 per 100,000 population
7. Chronic Obstructive
in 1997. Schistosomiasis Pulm onary and Allied
is endemic in twenty-four Conditions 7,725 12.1 2.5 11,405 16.6 3.5
provinces. Its prevalence 8. O ther Diseases of the
rate was reduced to 4.52% Respiratory System 6,723 10.6 2.1 8,382 12.2 2.6
in 1997. 9. D iarrheal Diseases 6,939 10.9 2.2 6,383 9.3 2.0
10. Diabetes M ellitus 3,195 5.0 1.0 6,105 8.9 1.9
16
industries are dominated by the production of ce-
Economy ment, glass industrial chemicals, fertilizers, iron
and steel, and refined petroleum products.
The industrial sector is concentrated in the

Composition and Growth urban areas, especially in the metropolitan Ma-
nila region and has only weak linkages to the ru-
ral economy. Inadequate infrastructure, transpor-
In 1994, gross national product (GNP) was tation, communication, and electric power short-
pegged at US$65.661 billion and gross domestic ages have so far inhibited faster industrial growth.
product (GDP) at US$ 64.018 billion. The GDP
per capita was pegged at US $954.92. Exports Likewise, in 1994, agriculture, forestry,
reached a total of US$ 21.650 billion while im- and fishing accounted for 22.02 percent or
ports were at US$ 25.688 billion. US$14.11 billion of the gross domestic product
with agriculture and fishery totaling US$ 13.9 bil-
The gross national product and gross do- lion against the US$ 180 million of the forestry
mestic product have recovered from stagnation in sector.
1991 and have been on an upward trend until 1996.
GNP grew to 6.9% in 1996 and GDP, 5.7%. De-
spite the Asian currency turmoil in July 1997, the Energy Production and Consumption
country still managed to have a 5.8% and 5.1%
annual growth rate for GNP and GDP, respectively.
Supply and Production
The 45.46% or US$ 29.1 billion of the
GDP is credited to the services sector with trade
sharing US$ 8.72 billion; private services, US$ Imported coal and crude oil, accounting
5.56 billion; government services, US$ 4.81bil- for 56.0% of the total primary energy supply in
lion; ownership of dwellings and real estate, US$ 1995 provide the bulk of the country’s energy sup-
4.32billion; transportation, communication, and ply. Indigenous conventional (oil, coal, hydro, geo-
storage, US$ 3.13 billion; and finance US$ 2.55 thermal) and non-conventional sources comprise
billion. the remaining 44.0% of the total national energy
supply.
The industrial sector shares US$ 20.82 bil-
lion or 32.52% of the GDP. Manufacturing has The Philippines has a number of indig-
the greatest contribution in the sector (US$ 14.88 enous resource options, but most of these remain
billion), followed by construction (US$ 3.61 bil- largely unexplored and underexploited. The coun-
lion), electricity, gas, and water (US$ 1.7 billion), try has estimated reserves of about 400 million
and mining and quarrying (US$ 0.62 billion). barrels of oil and 4.5 trillion standard cubic feet
of natural gas. Geothermal energy is one indig-
Industrial production is centered on pro- enous resource that abounds in the country with
cessing and assembly operations of the following: potential reserves conservatively estimated at
food, beverages, tobacco, and rubber products; tex- 4,000 MW.
tiles, clothing and footwear; pharmaceuticals;
paints; plywood and veneer; paper and paper prod- Since the start of production of the
ucts; small appliances; and electronics. Heavier country’s first oil field (El Nido) in 1979, about
17
40 million barrels of oil have been produced. The GWH in 1994 to 6,135 GWH in 1995. The
oil production considerably increased from a low Makban geothermal field, the country’s leading
1.73 million barrels in 1990 to 3.32 million bar- producer, decreased its production due to the
rels in 1993. This trend was made possible by the plant’s load curtailment from September to De-
discovery of major oil fields from 1990 to the cember of 1995. The Tiwi geothermal field like-
present. These include West Linapacan, with es- wise posted a decrease due to the damage brought
timated recoverable reserves of 90 million barrels by typhoon “Rosing.” The Makban geothermal
of oil (MMBO), the Octon structure with recov- field, the country’s leading producer, recorded
erable reserves initially placed at 10 to 15 MMBO, lower production levels to stabilize reserves and
and Malampaya with 2.5 to 4.5 trillion cubic feet ensure the sustainability of the resource in the
of recoverable gas reserves. However, in 1994 and long-term. Plant rehabilitation likewise affected
1995, there was a sharp decline in the country’s its operations considering the age of the facili-
oil production, which amounted to 1.66 million ties
barrels and 0.95 million barrels, respectively. The
decline was largely due to the continuous, unar- Affordability and accesibility of NRES
rested water intrusion problem in the West for households drove the steady utilization of non-
Linapacan oil field. conventional energy resources between 1990-
1995. The non-conventional sector contributed
Coal used by the country’s power plants, roughly 11.47% of the total national energy re-
meanwhile, mostly come from outside sources. A quirements. Agri-wastes consistently contributed
total of 2,010,305 metric tons of coal were im- a large part of the non-conventional energy sup-
ported from countries like Australia, Indonesia, ply.
Vietnam, China, and Russia. Domestic coal pro-
duction showed a steady increase from 1,243,013
metric tons in 1990 to 1,660,660 metric tons in Consumption
1992. However, from 1993 to 1995, coal produc-
tion decreased, dropping by 8.4% in 1994 and 10.1
percent in 1995. The bulk of local coal supply There was an upward trend in the con-
comes from the Semirara Coal Mine, which is the sumption of energy from 1990 to 1995. Moder-
biggest coal producer in the country, yielding 749.7 ate growth was posted for the period, with a steep
MMT in 1995. increase in energy consumption from 1993 to
1995. A total of 131.10 million barrels of fuel oil
In 1990, the hydroelectric power installed equivalent (MMBFOE) was consumed in 1993,
capacity was placed at 2,153 MW, displacing about 146.54 MMBFOE in 1994, and 209.75
10.45 million barrels of fuel oil equivalent. In- MMBFOE in 1995. For the period 1990-1995,
stalled capacity slightly increased from 1991 to the country’s average commercial energy con-
1995. An additional 103 MW capacity was in- sumption per capita stood at 2.48 barrels of fuel
stalled between 1990 and 1995 as part of the policy oil equivalent (BFOE). The energy-to-GDP ratio
to develop energy resources with minimal envi- or energy intensity grew steadily from 0.17
ronmental impact. Thus, development was focused BFOE/’000 GDP in 1990 to 0.26 BFOE/’000
on the installation of small hydro facilities. GDP in 1995. During the same period, the coun-
try posted an average energy intensity of 0.19
Power generated by geothermal power BFOE/’000 GDP.
plants totaled 35,044 gigawatt-hours (GWH) dur-
ing the period 1990-1995. The total geothermal The consumption of petroleum products,
production slipped by 2.9 percent from 6,320 mainly fuel oil and diesel, steadily increased from
18
1990 to 1995. In 1995, about 15,942 thousand change phenomenon. As early as May 8, 1991 the
barrels of premium and regular gasoline, 38,602 Philippine government created the Inter-agency
million barrels of diesel, and 45,733 million bar- Committee on Climate Change (IACCC) by vir-
rels of fuel oil were consumed. Among the indus- tue of Administrative Order No. 220. The IACCC
trial consumers of petroleum products, the power is composed of 15 government agencies and NGO
generation sector was consistently the highest, av- representatives. The IACCC was established to
eraging 25.9 million barrels annually. Unleaded coordinate various climate change related activi-
gasoline was introduced in the market in Febru- ties, propose climate change policies and prepare
ary, 1994 and registered a total sale of 1,047 thou- the Philippine positions to the UNFCCC negotia-
sand barrels at the end of the year. In 1995, 1,799 tions.
thousand barrels were consumed, equivalent to a
71.82% increase in the consumption of unleaded The IACCC is chaired by the Secretary of
gasoline. the Department of Environment and Natural Re-
sources and co-chaired by the Secretary of the
Electricity sales showed an upward trend Department of Science and Technology. Among
from 1990 to 1992. However, in 1993, electricity its members are the representatives of the Philip-
sales slightly dropped by 1.13 percent. In 1994 pine Atmospheric, Geo-Physical, and Astronomi-
and 1995, due to a stabilized power situation, there cal Services Administration, the Department of
was a substantial increase in the electricity con- Foreign Affairs, the Environment Committees of
sumption by the industrial (13.72% in 1994, 4.78% the two houses of the Philippine Congress, the De-
in 1995) and commercial (24.13% in 1994, 8.66% partment of Energy, the Department of Transpor-
in 1995) sectors. Over all, the biggest consumer tation and Communication, the Department of Ag-
of electricity was the industrial sector at 11,195 riculture, the National Economic and Develop-
GWH in 1995, followed by the residential sector, ment Authority, and the Philippine Network on
which consumed a total of 8,308 GWH for the Climate Change, representing the non-government
same year. organizations. The Environmental Management
Bureau acts as the Secretariat to the IACCC. Fig-
ure 1.4 shows the IACCC organizational struc-
Political Units ture.
Administratively, the country is divided

into 16 political regions. As of April 1998, the
Commission on Elections listed 78 provinces, 85
cities, and 1,525 municipalities. The smallest po-
litical unit is the barangay, of which there are
41,925.
National Coordination Mechanism

on Climate Change
The Philippines was among the first coun-

tries to respond to the challenge of the climate
19
FIGURE 1.4 IACCC ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
Chairman Co-Chairman
(DENR) (DOST)
Secretariat
(EMB-DENR)
Member Member Member Member

(DFA) (DOE) (NEDA) (PAGASA)
Member Member Member Member

(DPWH) (FMB) (PHIL. SENATE) (PNCC)
Member Member
(NAMRIA) (DOTC)
20
Chapter II - 1994 National GHG Inventory
Chapter II
1994 NATIONAL GHG INVENTORY
The Philippines has conducted two national greenhouse gas inventories, one
for 1990 and the other, for 1994. The 1990 GHG Inventory was initially undertaken
under the U.S. Country Studies Program, where the Philippines was a participating
country.
Pursuant to decision 10 CP/2, however, non-Annex I countries are required to

report their 1994 National GHG Inventory as contained in their Initial National Com-
munication. Hence, the Philippines generated this inventory through the Enabling Ac-
tivity Project funded by the GEF through the UNDP.
Methodology though further refinement of the data is now pos-

sible with the availability of local emission factors
especially from the transport sector.
The 1994 GHG inventory of the Philippines
is a result of the application of inventory proce- The other local modification was in the
dures stipulated by the Revised 1996 IPCC Guide- classification of fuel used in the Philippines. Table
lines. While these guidelines provide activity data 2.1 lists these local fuel types and the correspond-
and emission factors for the various sectors of con- ing IPCC equivalent.
cern, local values were used in place of these data
whenever possible. The following discussion enu- Calculations in the Energy sector also in-
merates these non-IPCC procedures and data that dicate an expected difference between the results
were adopted per sector in the process of prepar-
Table 2.1 IPCC Equivalent of Local Fuel Types
ing an inventory of the country’s GHG emissions.
Local Fuel Type IPCC Equivalent
Coal Sub Bituminous Coal
Energy Crude Oil Crude Oil
Premium Gasoline Gasoline
Regular Gasoline Gasoline
The Energy sector applied most of the rec- Unleaded Gasoline Gasoline
ommended procedures and default data provided Kerosene Other Kerosene
by the IPCC. Emission factors supplied by the Diesel Gas/Diesel Oil
IPCC were used all throughout the inventory al- Fuel Oil Residual Fuel Oil
21
of the top-down and bottom-up (or sectoral) ap- based on the IRRI-conducted local experiments
proaches: on methane emissions from rice fields. IRRI’s
method for approximating methane emissions from
Top-down Approach: 50,010 ktons CO2 rice paddy cultivation is a straightforward calcu-
Bottom-up Approach: 47,335 ktons CO2. lation which needs readily available input data. This
method requires (for each type of water manage-
The difference is attributed to the varia- ment regime) statistics on the harvested area of
tions in data reporting by the fuel end-users and rice, season length, and emission factor. The wa-
organizational units designed to manage the flow ter management regime describes the degree of
of data within the DOE. flooding and is classified as either irrigated or
rainfed.
Industry The IRRI study used the following equa-

tion for determining methane emissions from rice
paddy cultivation:
GHG emissions from the Industry sector
are largely based on production and the transfor-
MW = (AW x SW x EFW)/1000
mation of raw materials. The methods that were
used to estimate GHG emissions from these pro-
where:
cesses were based on the Revised 1996 IPCC
W = Water management (either irri-
Guidelines. Because the IPCC guidelines are ge- gated or rainfed)
neric, there were some cases when they could not MW = Methane emissions from water
be directly applied. In these cases, the industrial management regime “w” (Gg/yr
inventory used methods that involved applied AW = Harvested area of rice underwater
chemistry. For example, in the determination of management regime “w” (‘000
NMVOC emissions from the food and beverage hectares)
sub-sector, physical chemistry was applied to ap- SW = Season length for water manage-
proximate the quantities of beverages. The calcu- ment regime “w” (days)
lations for NMVOC were then based on these ap- EFW = Emission factor for water manage-
proximations. ment regime “w” (kg/ha/day)
Data for these various parameters are given

Agriculture in Table 2.2. The estimated total methane emis-
sions is calculated by adding the methane emis-
sions from the two water management regimes.
Owing to the lack of the
necessary input data, the IPCC-
Table 2.2 IRRI Default Parameter Values and Methane
based methodology for Agriculture
Emission Factor for Rice Paddy Cultivation
can not be fully adopted. Some ex-
isting data, moreover, are not avail-
able in the format required by the Water Management Season Length Methane Emission
IPCC (1996) methodology. Regime (days) Factor (kg/ha/day)
The method for estimating
Irrigated 114 2.3
methane emissions, for example, is Rainfed 113 0.4
22
values used for methane emissions from domestic/
Wastes commercial wastewater treatment.
Emissions from sludge and waste incinera-

The Wastes sector derived methane and ni- tion were not included due to the absence of such
trous oxide emissions mainly from population data waste handling systems and data.
and assumptions regarding the organic content of
urban and industrial wastes. Most of the calcula-
tions relied on several studies such as the Indus- Land Use Change and Forestry
trial Efficiency and Pollution Control Project and (LUCF)
Environmental Management Strategy (IEPC/EMS,
1992) and the JICA-sponsored research on urban
waste management. A major limitation of all these The general framework provided by the re-
studies is that the National Capital Region (of vised 1996 IPCC Guidelines was used all through-
Metro Manila) was the focus of urban and domes- out the calculations in this sector. Although de-
tic/industrial wastes research alone. fault values were provided by various tables in the
IPCC Reference and Workbook manuals, local
An estimate of the organic content of ur- values were obtained from the Forestry Develop-
ban solid wastes was not possible because of the ment Center of the University of the Philippines at
absence of data. Degradable organic carbon, there- Los Baños. The main source of data on biomass
fore, had to be estimated by assuming a major con- growth rates, densities, and carbon content is:
tribution from food and non-food organic
putrescibles. Lasco, R.D. and F.B. Pulhin, 1999:
Forest land use change in the Philip-
The calculation of BOD values for indus- pines and climate change mitigation.
trial wastewater was not based on the IPCC rec- Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
ommendation (which derived BOD from produc- for Global Change.
tion data) since these were already provided by
IEPC. Another central issue of concern is the
derivation of forest/non-forest land areas and their
Moreover, Table 2.3 shows the local val- temporal changes. Elementary exponential extrapo-
ues adopted in the inventory that were based on lation was used wherever gaps existed or wher-
the IEPC/EMS study in place of the IPCC default ever the administrative classification of forest bio-
mass types (such as old growth dipterocarp for-
ests) did not reflect the
Table 2.3 Local values for Methane Emissions from Domestic/Com- reality. The various fates
mercial Wastewater - Based on the IEPC/EMS Study of biomass resulting from
the conversion of land
PARAMETER LOCAL VALUE IPCC DEFAULT were likewise inferred
from studies such as the
Degradable Organic Component ESMAP survey of the
(kg BOD/1000 persons/day) 12,775 14,600 UNDP.
Fraction of Waste Water
Fraction of wastewater treated 60% 5% Calculations of
by handling system (Septic tanks) carbon emissions from
23
soil and abandoned lands were not done due to Figure 2.1. 1994 GHG Emissions from the Four
the absence of data such as the IPCC recommended Non-LUCF Sectors of Energy, Agriculture,
20-year time horizon for these data sets. Industry, and Waste .
SECTOR CO 2 Emissions
(ktons))
Energy 50,038
Summary of the 1994 GHG Emissions Industry 10,603
Inventory Agriculture 33,130
Wastes 7,094
TOTAL 100,864
The presence of human-induced or anthro- Energy

Wastes
pogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) in our atmo- 7%
49%
sphere can be attributed to activities and processes

associated mainly with five important sectors:
Energy, Industry, Agriculture, Land Use Change/
Forestry (LUCF), and Wastes. In 1994, the Philip-
pines released a total equivalent amount of 100,738
Agriculture
ktons of CO2 into the atmosphere. This is due to 33%
Industry
11%
the combined effect of GHG emissions from the
four sectors of Energy, Industry, Agriculture, and
Wastes, and the net uptake (sink) of GHGs from Figure 2.2. Net GHG Emissions with the LUCF
the LUCF sector. In the global context, this na- Sector.
tional amount is still minimal relative to the GHG
emissions of other nations, especially those of de-
veloped country parties to the UNFCCC. 120,000
100,000
Without the contribution of the still con- 80,000

100,864 100,738
troversial LUCF sector, the national GHG total 60,000
amounts to 100,864 ktons of equivalent CO2. Of 40,000 -126
the four non-LUCF sectors responsible for the 20,000
country’s sources of GHGs, the Energy sector is 0
the most significant, accounting for about 49% of -20,000

GHG Emissions - LUCF TOTAL
the national total. This is trailed closely by the LUCF
Agriculture sector’s contribution of about 33%.

Industry and Wastes follow with respective con- Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous
tributions of 11% and 7% of the total. Figure 2.1 oxide (N2O), and Hydrofluoro-carbons (HFCs).
shows the relative contributions of these four non- To effectively compare the global warming impact
LUCF sectors to the national GHG emissions to- of the non-CO2 gases with that of CO2, global
tal. In contrast with these four sectors which act warming potential (GWP) calculations were ap-
as GHG sources, activities and processes associ- plied to each of these non-CO2 GHGs. The GWP
ated with the LUCF sector are estimated to se- takes into account the varying efficacy of different
quester about 126 ktons of CO2, which is seem- GHGs in warming the planet relative to that of
ingly insignificant (0.1%) when compared with the CO2. For example, within a time horizon of 100
national total (see Figure 2.2). years, the current IPCC recommendation for the
GWPs of CH4 and N2O are 21 and 310, respec-
The GHGs of concern in the Philippines tively. The CO2 equivalents are computed by mul-
from the 5 previously mentioned sectors are mainly tiplying the actual emissions of non-CO2 GHGs
24
(e.g. of CH4 and N2O) with their respective GWPs. Figure 2.3. GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector.
Hence, for example, the potential global warming
Sub Sector CO 2 Emissions
impact of 100 ktons of CH4 is equivalent to that (ktons)
of 2,100 ktons of CO2. The total of GHG emis- Power Generation 15,508
sions cited above is in terms of equivalent CO2 (to Residential 4,359
Industries 9,497
take into account the contribution of non-CO2 Agriculture 1,189
GHGs). Transport 15,888
Commercial 3,370
Fugitive Emissions 227
GHG emissions from the Energy sector are TOTAL 50,038
dominated by power generation and transport while
in Agriculture, rice paddy cultivation and domes- Commercial Others
Fugitive
Energy
Emissions
tic livestock are the primary sources of GHG re- Transport
30%
1% 7%
0% Industries
27%
lease. Industry’s GHG sources are found mainly
in the cement and metal processing industries while
CH4 emissions are largely from solid wastes. The
apparently low net emissions from the LUCF sec-
tor is due to the combined effect of large values in Agriculture Residential
1%
biomass growth and forest land use change/con- Industries
24%
10%
version. A more complete breakdown of these

various subsectoral contributions is explained in
the following section. conventional fuel types continue to dominate the
current and projected energy mix of the country:
76% in 1994 and 67.5% by the year 2008. New
Sectoral Contributions and renewable energy sources (NREs) such as hy-
droelectric power, geothermal, bio-mass, wind, and
solar systems are projected to comprise 32.5% of
The individual contributions of the five sec- the energy mix in 2008 [Philippine Energy Plan,
tors to the national GHG emissions total may be Dept. of Energy, 1999]. Biomass contributes the
further resolved into more specific subsectors of greater share among these NREs. GHG emissions
GHG sources and sinks per sector. from these NREs are assumed to be insignificant.
Industry
Energy
In the Industry sector, 10,603 ktons of CO2

The GHG emissions in the energy sector were released in 1994. A major fraction (86%) of
(which is largely CO2) come mainly from fuel com- the industrial CO2 emissions comes from the ce-
bustion. This sector alone emitted 50,038 ktons of ment and metal industries (see Figure 2.4). These
equivalent CO2 in 1994. The subsector contribu- emissions arise directly from industrial processes
tions to this total are tabulated and illustrated in associated with manufacturing cement and met-
Figure 2.3. A significant portion of these emis- als, and are not due to the power generation ac-
sions (about 82%) is from three major end users tivities of these industries which are already ac-
of fuel: the power generating industries, transpor- counted for in the Energy sector. In 1994, the
tation, and the manufacturing industries. The main Philippines produced around 239 million bags of
fuel types used in these subsectors are conventional cement and 2.669 million tons of steel correspond-
fossil fuels such as oil and coal which are found to ing to CO2 emissions of 4,771 and 4,318 ktons,
contribute substantially to GHG emissions. These respectively.
25
Figure 2.4. GHG Emissions from the Industry Sector. and agricultural soils. CH4 emissions from rice
Sub Sector C O 2 Emissions paddies comprise about 40% and are due mostly
(ktons) to the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter
Cement 4,771
Chemicals 7 in these aquatic environments. Emissions from do-
Metals 4,318 mestic livestock are derived mainly from enteric
Halocarbons 1,507
TOTAL 10,603 fermentation and manure management of animals
such as buffalo, cattle, and swine. The total of
Halocarbons
33,130 ktons of equivalent CO2 released from Ag-
14% Cement
45% riculture (about 33% of the non-LUCF total of
GHG emissions) indicates that next to Energy, this
sector is a significant source of GHGs for the coun-
try.
Metals
Chemicals
41%
0%
Wastes
Agriculture GHG emissions from the Wastes sector

come from solid wastes, domestic and industrial
wastewater, and human sewage. About 60% of the
In the other sectors of Agriculture and CH4 emissions in this sector is from solid wastes
Wastes, CH4 and N2O, rather than CO2, are the as shown in Figure 2.6. In 1994, an estimated
significant GHGs emitted. Figure 2.5 shows the 4,200 ktons of solid wastes were brought to solid
equivalent CO2 emissions attributed to Agricul- wastes disposal sites. This amount does not con-
ture. In this sector, non-CO2 GHGs are emitted sider the wastes that were either uncollected or
mostly from rice cultivation, domestic livestock, indiscriminately dumped in streams or urban wa-
Figure 2.5 GHG Emissions from the Agriculture Sector. terways. The dumping of this amount of solid
Sub Sector CO 2 Emissions
Figure 2.6 GHG Emissions from the Wastes Sector.
(ktons)
Rice Cultivation 13,364 Sub Sector CO 2 Emissions
Domestic Livestock 10,498 (ktons)
Agri Residue Burning 581 Solid Wastes 4,253
Agricultural Soils 8,680 Municipal Wastewater 966
Grassland Burning 6 Industrial Wastewater 920
TOTAL 33,130 Human Sewage 954
TOTAL 7,094
R ice
Cultivation Domestic
40% Livestock Solid Wastes
32% 60%
Grassland Agri Residue

Burning
Human Municipal
Burning Agricultural
Sewage Industrial Wastewater
0% Soils 2%
13% Wastewater 14%
26% 13%
26
wastes released about 203 ktons of CH4, equiva- mosphere back into the biosphere. This sink, how-
lent to emitting around 4,253 ktons of CO2 into ever, is offset by biomass loss associated with for-
the atmosphere (using current GWP assumptions). est harvest and deforestation. In 1994, the total
Industrial wastewater, municipal wastewater, and land use area was about 16 Mha and the biomass
human sewage share almost equally the other 40% growth of these land areas resulted in an estimated
of GHG emissions from this sector. cumulative uptake of 110,704 ktons CO2. How-
ever, carbon sequestered by the annual growth of
these different vegetative types is offset by the
Land Use Change and Forestry yearly removal of biomass via harvest and defor-
estation. Roundwood/Fuelwood harvests in 1994
account for 42,381 ktons of CO2 emitted. Addi-
The 126 ktons of CO2 estimated to be tionally, forest loss and land use conversion re-
sequestered by the LUCF sector is attributed to leased a total of 68,197 ktons CO2. This includes
the net impact of non-negligible changes in biom- emissions from activities such as on site burning
ass growth and land use/forest conversion. This is (for clearing purposes), off site burning (for do-
shown in Figure 2.7. mestic/industrial fuelwood), and biomass decay.
Biomass growth alone from the country’s The net LUCF contribution is still not com-
forested lands and other land use categories is cited plete since biomass growth and loss are not the
as a major factor in bringing GHGs from the at- only determining components of this total. The still
unknown impact of Philippine soil carbon and bio-
Figure 2.7 GHG Emissions and Sinks in the mass growth in abandoned lands, together with
LUCF Sector. uncertainties in local biomass densities and growth
CO 2 Emissions(+)
rates make it difficult to obtain a more complete
Sub Sector and Uptake(-) value for the contribution of the LUCF sector to
(ktons) the national GHG emissions total. Despite the un-
Change in Forest/Woody Biomass -68,323 certainties, present calculations suggest that for the
Biomass Growth -110,704 Philippines in 1994, LUCF is an insignificant sink
Roundwood/Fuelwood Harvests 42,381
Forest/Land Use Change 68,197
rather than a source of GHGs in the atmosphere.
On Site Burning 28,868
Off Site Burning 6,555
Decay 32,774
Table 2.4 shows a summary table of the
TOTAL -126 1994 Philippine GHG Emissions Inventory for the
five sectors of Energy, Agriculture, Industry, Land
80,000 Use Change/Forestry, and Wastes.
60,000
Forest Conversion
40,000
68197 Gg GHG Emission Projections for 2008
20,000
0
TOTAL
-20,000
Biomass Growth
-126 Gg
-40,000 -68,323 Gg
Energy
-60,000
-80,000
The energy sector plays a dominant role in
determining the GHG emissions of the country. In
27
Table 2.4 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory Results

SECTOR and SOURCE CATEGORIES CO2 CH4 N2O NOx CO NMVOC SO2
I. ENERGY
A. Fuel Combustion Activities 433.36
1. Energy Industries 15,458 0.51 0.13 38.47 2.83 0.91
2. Manufacturing Industries 8,980 8.08 1.12 60.93 986.71 13.81
3. Transport 15,801 2.15 0.14 167.37 719.44 136.77
4. Commercial/Institutional 3,368 0.06 0.00 0.63 0.13 0.03
5. Residential 2,544 72.83 0.92 29.22 1,356.21 133.02
6. Agriculture 1,185 0.11 0.01 1.08 0.22 0.05
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels
1. Coal Mining 10.32
2. Oil 0.47 0.62 16.83 7.61 8.94
C. Biomass Emissions* 48,490
TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY 47,335 94.53 2.31 298.00 3,082.00 292.00 442.00
CO2 EQUIVALENT 47,335 1,985.22 717.16
TOTAL CO2 EQUIVALENT 50,038
II. INDUSTRY
A. Cement 4,771 2.87
B. Chemicals 0.33 0.01 0.22 1.46 9.81
C. Asphalt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
D. Food and Beverages 16.35
E. Pulp and Paper 0.12 0.44 0.29 0.56
F. Metals 4,318 0.11 0.00 0.08 2.99
G. Halocarbons 1,507
TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM INDUSTRY 10,596 0.33 0.00 0.24 0.66 18.18 16.22
CO2 EQUIVALENT 10,596 6.95 0.00
III. AGRICULTURE
A. Domestic Livestock 333.47 11.27
B. Rice Cultivation 636.40
C. Grassland Burning 0.30 0.00 0.14 7.94
D. Agriculture Residue Burning 20.30 0.50 18.10 427.30
E. Agricultural Soils 28.00
TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE 990.47 39.77 18.24 435.24
CO2 EQUIVALENT 20,799.89 12,329.63
IV. WASTES
A. Solid Wastes 202.53
B. Domestic/Commercial Wastewater 46.02
C. Industrial Wastewater 43.83
D. Human Sewage 3.08
TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM WASTES 292.38 3.08
CO2 EQUIVALENT 6,140.06 953.94
V. LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY
A. Change in Forest/Woody Biomass -68,323
B. Forest/Land Use Change 65,549 114.41 0.79 28.43 1,001.11
TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM LUCF -2,774 114.41 0.79
CO2 EQUIVALENT -2,774 2,403.00 245.00
TOTAL CO2 EQUIVALENT -126
TOTAL NAT'L GHG EMISSIONS 55,157 1,492.00 46.00 317.00 3,518.00 310.00 459.00
EQUIVALENT CO2 55,581 31,335.00 14,246.00
TOTAL NAT'L EQUIVALENT CO2 EMISSIONS 100,738
28
1994, Philippine energy activities alone emitted
about 50,038 ktons of CO2, approximately half of
the national GHG total from the four non-LUCF Agriculture
sectors. The amount of CO2 that is forecast for
2008 is based on the projected energy mix reported
in the Department of Energy’s Philippine Energy For the year 2008, the Philippines is pre-
Plan (PEP, 1999). On the basis of this energy mix, dicted to have 3,451,933 hectares of irrigated rice
future national consumption of coal, oil, and natu- fields and 1,232,676 hectares of rainfed rice fields.
ral gas will emit 122,344 ktons of CO2 by 2008 The statistics for the two types of rice ecosystems
(Table 2.5). This is more than double the 1994 are estimated using linear regression on existing
CO2 emissions associated with energy. BAS statistics on the harvested area of rice (1981-
1997). Applying IRRI’s method for approximat-
ing CH4 emissions from rice paddy cultivation, the
Table 2.5 Projected Consumption of Coal, Oil and projected values correspond to a net emission of
Natural Gas and the Corresponding CO2
960.8 ktons of CH4 (905.1 and 55.7 ktons for ir-
Emissions by the Year 2000
rigated and rain-fed, respectively). This corre-
Coal Oil Natural Gas Total sponds to an equivalent amount of 20,177 ktons
Consumption 56.99 195.3 28.74 281.03 CO2 in 2008 which is a 51% increase relative to
(MMBFOE) the 1994 value of 13,364 ktons of equivalent CO2
CO2 Emissions 31,055 80,840 9,699 122,344 from rice cultivation.
(ktons)
Land Use Change and Forestry
Industry The LUCF sector is projected to be a net

source of 4,492 ktons CO2 by the year 2008. This
is a noticeable increase of emissions from the –
Greenhouse gas emissions for 2008 from 126 ktons of CO2 sequestered in 1994. The pro-
the industry sector are calculated using produc- jection is based on an exponential extrapolation
tion data from 1991 to 1995 as the baseline and procedure applied to estimate land use areas for
extrapolated using regression methods. For each various years beyond the 1987-1996 range that is
data set, linear trends were evaluated against an- officially available from the Forest Management
nual production trends and the gross domestic Bureau (FMB) statistics book. In the procedure,
product (GDP) values. The averages of these two the progressive decrease in total forest land area
suggests a depletion rate of 2.02% per year that
trending mechanisms are taken as the forecast val-
agrees well with a previous study carried out by
ues for this sector. Table 2.6 summarizes the re-
the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
sults of the GHG projections to 2008 for cement
and steel.
Table 2.6 Projected CO2 Emissions From Cement Wastes
and Steel Industries by the Year 2008
(in ktons).
Urban population in 1994 was estimated
Projections to 2008
by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Based on Annual Based on GDP Average
Trends Trends
to be 53.29% of the national population. By 2008,
Cement 7,665 7,399 7,532 this fraction is estimated to increase to 68.82%.
Iron and Steel 12,877 12,902 12,890 Using the projections of the National Statistics Of-
Ferro-Alloys 65 92 78 fice (NSO) of 88.72 million people by 2008, [1995
29
Census-based National and Regional Population totals. With all other emissions from the other
Projections of the NSO], urban population will subsectors pegged conservatively at their 1994
correspondingly increase from 35.6 million in 1994 values, the national GHG emissions total from all
to 60.6 million by the year 2008. five sectors is projected to increase to 195,091
ktons of equivalent CO2. This constitutes a rise of
This increase in urban population will lead 94% relative to the 1994 total of 100,738 ktons in
to an increase in CH4 emissions from solid wastes, a matter of 14 years, or an annual growth rate of
domestic/commercial wastewater, and human sew- 4.8%. Baseline and projected GHG emissions are
age. Table 2.7 shows the 1994 equivalent CO2 shown in Figure 2.8. Because various subsectors
emissions from these three subsectors and the pro- were held constant at 1994 levels, this 2008 pro-
jected increase in emissions by the year 2008. jection may be a conservative estimate.
As evident from the above discussion, the Figure 2.8 Philippine GHG Emissions for 1994
country’s future GHG emissions for 2008 were and 2008 (ktons equiv CO)
calculated by projecting only those subsectors that
had significant contributions to the sectoral sub-
Table 2.7 Baseline and Projected Waste Emissions 200,000
( in ktons)
160,000
Wastes Subsector 1994 2008

120,000
Solid Wastes 4,253 6,727
Domestic/Commercial Wastewater 966 1,658 80,000
Human Sewage 954 1,259

40,000
1994 2008
Total 6,173 9,644
0
30
Chapter III - General Description of Steps
Chapter III
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF STEPS
T he Philippines has started to undertake and is planning to implement a number

of measures to fulfill its commitments as a country Party to the Convention. These
include undertakings related to its pursuit of sustainable development, research and
systematic observation, awareness raising, education and training, adaptation measures
and capacity building, among others.
Sustainable Development Programs
The Philippine Strategy for Sustainable Pursuant to the PSSD, the Philippine
Development (PSSD) and PA 21 Agenda 21, which serves as the blueprint for the
country’s sustainable development efforts, was
completed in September, 1996. It “envisions a
The Philippines was among the first better quality of life for all, the development of a
countries to embrace the sustainable develop- just, moral, creative, spiritual, economically vi-
ment paradigm, adopting the Philippine Strat- brant, caring, diverse yet cohesive society charac-
egy for Sustainable Development (PSSD) in terized by appropriate productivity, participatory
1989. The PSSD comprises of a ten-pronged and democratic processes and living in harmony
strategy, as follows: within the limits of the carrying capacity of na-
ture and the integrity of creation.”
a. Integration of environmental consider-
ation in decision-making; The PA 21 is anchored on the following prin-
b. Proper pricing of natural resources ciples:
c. Property rights reform
d. Conservation of biodiversity 1. Primacy of developing the full human po-
e. Rehabilitation of degraded ecosystem(s) tential, which puts people at the center of
f. Strengthening of residuals management the development focus.
g. Control of population growth and human
resources development 2. Holistic science and appropriate technol-
h. Inducing growth in rural areas ogy, which promotes the use of holistic
i. Promotion of environmental education rather than reductionist science in finding
j. Strengthening citizens’ participation solutions to development problems.
31
3. Cultural, moral and spiritual sensitivity The PCSD is chaired by the Director-Gen-
which encourages the nurturing of local eral of the National Economic and Development
and indigenous knowledge and respect for Authority (NEDA), and vice-chaired by the Sec-
the diversity of culture, moral standards retary of the Department of Environment and
and spiritual nature of the Filipino soci- Natural Resources (DENR). Some 14 government
ety. departments and seven (7) non-government/
people’s organizations are members of the Coun-
4. Self determination, which advocates re- cil. A composite secretariat serves the PCSD, com-
spect for the rights and capability of people prising of the NEDA, DENR, and the NGO group.
to decide on their development course. For the last, the Civil Society Counterpart on Sus-
tainable Development (CSCSD) serves as the
5. National sovereignty. NGO counterpart secretariat to the PCSD.
6. Gender sensitivity. The PCSD operates through its four com-
mittees, and their respective sub-committees. The
7. Peace, order, and national unity.
Committees correspond to the major chapter con-
cerns of the Global Agenda 21. Figure 3.1 de-
8. Social justice, inter- and intra-generational,
picts the structure of the Council.
as well as, spatial equity.
9. Participatory democracy.
10. Institutional viability. Systematic Observation and
Research
11. Viable, sound and broad-based economic
development.
Data Collection and Systematic
12. Sustainable population. Observations
13. Ecological soundness.

The Philippines has a number of network
14. Bio-geographical equity and community- observation stations currently operated and main-
based resource management. tained by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysi-
cal and Astronomical Services Administration
The PA 21 likewise details the initiatives (PAGASA). These are:
needed to shift to sustainable development. These
include creating the enabling conditions for sus- Synoptic Stations Network
tainable development, implementing actions for
the country’s various ecosystems, and actions for Synoptic stations are the basic stations ob-
critical resources. serving the weather elements at the surface. Fig-
ure 3.2 shows the location(s) of the present syn-
The entity which coordinated the prepara- optic stations (44), the proposed automatic weather
tion of the PA 21 and will oversee its implemen- stations (AWSs) and data collection platforms
tation is the Philippine Council for Sustainable De- (DCPs) (5) throughout the country. While this syn-
velopment (PCSD) which embodies the partner- optic network of stations seem adequate for large-
ship of government with the non-government or- scale weather systems, around fifteen (15) more
ganizations. AWSs and DCPs are expected to be commissioned
32
FIGURE 3.1 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE PCSD
33
FIGURE 3.2. Location of PAGASA Synoptic Stations.
ITBAYAT
BASCO
CALAYAN
LEGEND:
LAOAG APARRI
EXISTING SYNOP
TUGUEGARAO
VIGAN PALANAN EXISTING DCP
CASIGURAN
PROPOSED DCP/AWS
BALER EXISTING SYNOP W/
BAGUIO
DAGUPAN PROPOSED DCP/AWS
CABANATUAN
IBA MUÑOZ JOMALIG IS.
INFANTA
CUBI CLARK
SC. GARDEN NAIA ALABAT
PORT AREA AMBULON
SANGLEY G DAET
TAYABAS
PILI
VIRAC
CALAPAN LEGASPI
SAN FRANCISCO
MATNOG
ROMBLON CATARMAN
SAN JOSE MASBATE GAMAY
CORON
CATBALOGAN BORONGAN
ROXAS
TACLOBAN
BANTAYAN
GUIUAN
CUYO
ILOILO
MAASIN
KALAYAAN IS. PUERTO PRINCESA MACTAN
CAGAYANCILLO TAGBILARA
DUMAGUETE N SURIGAO SIARGAO IS.
BUTUAN
CAG. DE ORO
DIPOLOG HINATUAN
BALABAC IS. LUMBIA
MALAYBALA
Y
COTABATO
DAVAO
ZAMBOANGA
MATI
GEN. SANTOS
34
to fill data gaps in very remote areas and as an ment of weather systems. This will replace the old
initial step towards the automation of weather pilot balloon method, wherein an optical theodo-
observations, eventually leading to the reduction lite (telescope) is used to determine positions of a
of manpower services. meteorological balloon as it rises to the atmo-
sphere. However, this method obviously has a big
Upper-Air Stations Network disadvantage in a cloudy/hazy environment and
is non-functional during typhoons and other se-
Upper-air stations observe basic weather vere weather conditions, when upper-air data are
elements aloft and those to define the vertical needed most.
structure of the atmosphere, normally advanta-
geous for aviation safety and economy, as well as, Hydrometeorological/Flood
for the improvement of weather analyses, fore- Forecasting/Storm Surge Stations
casting and warning capabilities. Upper-air obser-
vation data on pressure, temperature, humidity and Flood forecasting is only currently being
wind are also essential inputs for ocean-atmo- done in four major river basins in Luzon, namely
sphere interaction studies and research activities. Agno, Bicol, Cagayan and Pampanga. The goal,
Figure 3.3 depicts the present upper-air stations however, is to reach-out to all people living in or
(4) and the proposed rawinsonde (3) and radiowind close to flood plain areas. Fifteen to twenty (15-
(5) stations. The rawinsonde station will use a dis- 20) additional automatic stations are projected to
posable weather sensor with electronic transmit- be put on-line, strategically located in three (3)
ter brought up by a meteorological balloon, send- major rivers in Mindanao, namely: Agusan,
ing weather information at different levels of the Mindanao (Cotabato) and Davao; and in Panay
atmosphere to a ground receiver facility. The data Island and Samar.
In addition, while a few

storm surge-monitoring stations
are in-place, most of them are still
in the research mode. Storm
surge forecasting is relatively
new in the PAGASA. To shift
these into full operational mode,
automatic-gauging stations will
have to be established (Figure
3.4).
Agrometeorological/
Climatological Stations
Network
Meteorological balloon with electronic transmitter that sends weather
information at different levels of the atmosphere. In agrometeorological
(AGROMET) stations,
generated will give a 3-dimensional description observations are made of the various weather
of the weather conditions of the upper atmosphere elements essential to crop-weather relationship
and are essential in the analysis and forecasting studies that aim to help farmers and farm operators
of the present and future development and move- determine the best crops suited to the locality and
35
FIGURE 3.3. Location of PAGASA Upper-Air Observation Stations
BASCO
LEGEND:
RAWINSONDE STATION(S)
LAOAG (OPERATIONAL)
RAWINSONDE STATION(S)
(PROPOSED)
RADIOWIND STATION(S)
(PROPOSED)
BAGUIO
TANAY
LEGASPI
CORON BORONGAN
MACTAN
PUERTO PRINCESA
SURIGAO
ZAMBOANGA DAVAO
36
FIGURE 3.4 Location of Storm Surge Monitoring Stations (SSMS) and Ocean Buoys.
BASCO
LEGEND:
SAN VICENTE EXISTING

PROPOSED SSMS
CURRIMAO PROPOSED OCEAN

BUOY(S)
BALER
DAGUPAN
INFANTA
ORANI
PARACALE
TINAMBAC
CATARMAN
MASBATE
TABLAS HERNANI
STRAIT
BASEY
ABUYOG
CARMEN SOGOD
SURIGAO
BOHOL SEA
TANDAG
37
the best time to plant for optimum crop yield. Marine Observing System
Meanwhile, selected weather parameters such as
temperature, cloud cover, and rainfall are observed The marine observing system is intended
and recorded at climatological (CLIMAT) stations. to provide real-time observation data in support
Although not necessarily used for weather of the domestic marine forecast service. These data
forecasting, these information are important to will also be useful for the verification of wave
long-range climate monitoring and predictions and forecasts and in the calibration of the wave model
for research activities to benefit agriculture. coefficients. The system will consist of moored
ocean buoys that are equipped with sensors for
Expansion and upgrading of the network measurement of wave height and frequency, ocean
of AGROMET and CLIMAT stations (Figure 3.5) current, sea surface temperature and other
would enhance PAGASA’s specialized weather important physical parameters in the ocean
services for agriculture, in terms of acquiring the surface. The real time transmission of observed
necessary weather data, in finer detail and on a data to the main Forecast Center will be through
near real-time basis, for use in the detection and satellite communication.
spread of pests and diseases, the determination of
appropriate cropping calendars, the preparation of Special Observation Stations
weather-based crop advisories for the proper
scheduling of day-to-day activities of farmers, A. Background Air Pollution Monitoring
farm operators and other agricultural entities, Station (BAPMon)
among others.
The Philippines has one BAPMon
station located in Mt. Sto. Tomas in Tuba,
Benguet. Currently, it observes rainfall
acidity, concentration of SO2, particulate
matter and electrical conductivity.
Considering its objective, the station
should be far from major sources of
pollutants due to human activities. To this
end, there is a plan to relocate the present
site to Mindanao where the level of
pollution is perceived to be minimal. The
chemical analyses involved require very
sensitive equipment to adequately measure
the concentration of the pollutants. This
poses a big constraint, aside from the
appropriateness of the site.
B. Ozone Monitoring Station
The country has a single ozone

monitoring station which is an integral part
An automatic weather station which has a solar of the Global Ozone Monitoring Network.
panel that generates power for the system. It regularly observes the total ozone
amount and is located at the PAGASA
Science Garden in Quezon City.
38
Figure 3.5 Location of PAGASA Agro-meteorological Stations
BASCO
LEGEND:
EXISTING
MMSU BATAC
TUGUEGARAO
PROPOSED
ISU ECHAGUE
DMMMSU BACNOTAN NVSIT BAYOMBONG
BAGUIO (LA TRINIDAD)
TCA TARLAC
CLSU MUÑOZ
SCIENCE GARDEN
QUEZON CITY UP LOS BAÑOS
TAGAYTAY
CSSAC PILI
BUCA GUINOBATAN
NAUJAN
UEP, CATARMAN
PSPC, MAMBUSAO BASEY
VISCA BAYBAY
LA GRANJA
PNAC ABORLAN
BUTUAN
CMU MUSUAN
MSU MARAWI
TRRC TAGUM
COTABATO
BAGO OSHIRO
USM KBACAN
GEN. SANTOS
39
2. Crop Yield Information in Selected Areas

Researches 3. Development of an Operational Agrometeoro-
logical Crop Monitoring and Weather-based
Crop Production Forecasting
The Philippines has many researches 4. Feasibility Study on the Use of Passive
which could be considered climate-related. Among Samplers for Background Monitoring of Gases
the main ones are: 5. Vegetation and Soil Moisture Index Mapping
using AATSR, ASAR and MWR Data from
Finished Researches ENVISAT
6. Bio-climatic Mapping of the Philippines
1. Epidemiological Study for Metro Manila
Using Climatic Variability
2. Country Study to Address Climate Change Education, Training
Issues and Concerns and Public Awareness
l GHG emissions inventory
l Vulnerability assessments and adaptation
analysis on water resources, coastal Pursuant to Article 6 of the UNFCCC,
resources and agriculture country Parties have the responsibility to inform
l Mitigation activities to reduce GHG their people about climate change and its impacts.
emissions
3. An Investigation on Systems Responses to Sea Even prior to the adoption of the UNFCCC
Level Changes of Some Selected Locations in at the Earth Summit in Rio, in 1992, the
the Philippines Philippines has already been undertaking
information dissemination on the climate change
On-Going Researches issue.
1. Development of a Climate Information, The results of the ADB funded Regional

Monitoring and Prediction System (CLIMPS), Study on Global Environmental Issues which
being undertaken by PAGASA in generated a rapid assessment of the Philippines’
collaboration with the Department of vulnerability to climate change initially served as
Agriculture (DA) and the Department of the basis for alerting the general population to the
Environmental and Natural Resources possible impacts of climate change in the country.
(DENR). It will have the capability to predict
and issue with sufficient lead-time, advisories The Philippine Network on Climate
on extreme climate events such as during Change (PNCC), as a member of the Climate
episodes of El Niño and La Niña, as well as, Action Network of Southeast Asia (CANSEA) and
seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts. the Earth Savers’Movement, were among the first
2. Climatological Study on the Changes in the groups to actively undertake information
Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Philippine campaign(s) about the climate change issue and
Area of Responsibility the climate negotiations.
Future Researches
The executive branch of government, as
part of its mandate to continually inform and
1. Forecasting of the UV Index in Four Regional
educate the public about environmental issues like
Stations of the Philippines
climate change, has come up with a National
40
Strategy for Environmental Education (NSEE) in-depth discussions among stakeholders on
which later evolved into the National climate mitigation and adaptation. Several regional
Environmental Education Action Plan (NEEAP). and national consultations were conducted. Also,
Through the Environmental Management Bureau focused sectoral group discussions and meetings
of the DENR and guided by the Strategy and the were conducted to further level off on the
NEEAP, information dissemination and education understanding of and generate consensus on the
activities were undertaken such as: country’s response to the challenge of the
UNFCCC.
· Publication and dissemination of poster
calendar(s) on climate change and global The NAP process was also a means of
warming. raising awareness on climate change at the local
level, especially among the local government
· Organization and conduct of symposia, executives and non-government organizations.
focused group consultation and
workshops. These were attended by
representatives from the government and Training/Workshops on Local
non-government organizations, private Action Planning on Climate Change
sector and the academe.
· Conduct of exhibits on climate change. Under the Enabling Activity Project,

public consultations continued and even expanded.
Even the legislative branch was active in These consultations were intended to raise the
raising awareness on the climate change issue. The awareness level of various sectors on the threats
Senate Committee on Environment, chaired by of climate change impacts and the different
then Senator Heherson T. Alvarez, who also mitigation and adaptation strategies.
founded the EarthSavers Movement in 1989, co-
sponsored a series of Asia Pacific and national A number of training/workshops on “Local
conferences to popularize and place Climate Action Planning on Climate Change” were
Change and its adverse impacts on the national likewise organized by the Institute for Climate,
agenda. These are: the 1st Asia Pacific Conference Energy and the Environment (ICEE) still under
on Climate Change in the House of the Enabling Activity Project in selected provinces
Representatives with UNESCO and UNDP in in the country with the local government units and
1992; the Global Youth EarthSaving Summit with other stakeholders as participants. Areas covered
the House of Representatives in 1993; the Asia were those at high risk from climate change like
Pacific Leaders Ministerial Conference with sea level rise and its subsequent coastal
Malacañang and East Asia Pacific degradation/inundation. The activity aimed not
Parliamentarians Committee on Environment and only to create awareness among the various
Development in 1995; and, the National stakeholders in the area but also to provide the
Conference on El Niño and La Niña in the National necessary guidance in the formulation of local
Library with the Presidential Task Force on El action plans on climate change. Most of the
Niño and La Niña in 1997. participants were planning officers from the
provincial, city, and municipal governments,
The preparation of the National Action environment and natural resources officers and
Plan (NAP) on Climate Change likewise served representatives from the NGOs, academe and the
as an opportunity for awareness raising and more business sectors.
41
its operations in June 1999 and is housed in the
Promotion of Energy Efficiency Manila Observatory at the Ateneo de Manila
and Conservation University. The CCIC is symbolic of the
government, academe, NGOs and international
(USAID) partnership and is a testament of the
To promote energy efficiency and academe’s commitment to the climate change
conservation, the Department of Energy has issues.
undertaken a number of information campaigns,
as follows: The CCIC has a collection of books on
climate change, as well as, atmospheric science
· The Power Patrol Program is an energy and pollution. Access to compact discs and various
information awareness and education multi-media including videotapes on the various
program covering the residential, topics of climate change is possible. It also carries
industrial, commercial and education the current contents on CD. The CCIC is accessible
sectors. It promotes efficiency in the 24 hours through the internet, e-mail, fax, and an
electricity and gasoline fuel use of these electronic bulletin board.
sectors through the tri-media. The
campaign has reached approximately 1
million households so far. The Buhay Recognition Awards
for Greenhouse Gases Abatement
· The Road Transport Patrol Program was
launched on 17 April 1998 focusing on
information dissemination regarding The Buhay Awards is part of the country’s
proper operation and maintenance initiatives to promote and recognize voluntary
practices to reduce fuel consumption. The efforts on GHG mitigation. The Buhay Awards for
program is expected to contribute to the greenhouse gases abatement were presented for
reduction in oil importation and the first time in 1998. The Awards process intends
environmental emissions as a result of the to recognize individuals, companies, other
reduction in fuel consumption in the institutions and groups that have undertaken
transport sector.
Climate Change
Information Center
In a bid to better position

itself to receive international
information on climate change and
climate friendly technologies and
to disseminate these system-
atically to local stakeholders, the
Climate Change Information
Center (CCIC) was established.
President Joseph E. Estrada poses with the Buhay Awardees. At the
background (from left to right) are: DENR Sec. Antonio Cerilles, DOE
The Philippine Climate Sec. Mario Tiaoqui and Executive Sec. Ronaldo Zamora
Change Information Center began
42
significant voluntary efforts to reduce generation and is raising awareness, as well as, training local
of greenhouse gases in the Philippines. The awards government units and other stakeholders on local
seek to promote the concept of voluntary energy action planning on climate change.
efficiency and other greenhouse gas abatement
measures that are beneficial both to business and
the environment. Such also aim to promote Climate Awareness Survey
increased investments in greenhouse gas
abatement technologies such as energy efficiency,
clean technologies, renewable energy and demand- The Philippines, in April 1998, through the
side management. There were about fifteen (15) Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change
recipients of the Buhay awards in 1998. These Secretariat, conducted a survey on climate
were companies from various industrial sectors awareness in the various sectors. The survey was
that have initiated successful efforts to achieve done in collaboration with and with support from
energy efficiency, which is recognized as an the United Nations Environment Programme
effective means of reducing greenhouse gases. (UNEP). The main aim of the survey is to assess
the levels of awareness of leaders/representatives
of various sectors of society which include the
Contributions from Non-Government business sector, government, media, NGOs and
Organizations (NGOs) the academe. The results of the survey will be
used to develop a country program that would
address the gaps and constraints in raising the
The non-government organizations play an awareness of the populace on climate change.
important role in raising public awareness. As
previously cited, they were among the first ones
to raise public awareness on the global warming Vulnerability Assessment
problem. They continue to play an active and
pivotal role not only in increasing the general
public’s knowledge about this issue but in shaping Climate is expected to continue to change
government policies and positions. in the future. Warmer temperatures will lead to a
number of impacts both on man and environment,
The Philippine Network on Climate including agricultural resources. A more vigorous
Change, an umbrella organization of some eight hydrological cycle will translate to prospects of
(8) national environmental NGOs, is involved in more severe droughts/floods in some places and
several information dissemination activities in less severe climatic events in others. On the one
schools, regularly organizing workshops to raise hand, the increase in rainfall intensity suggest pos-
awareness on climate change issues among sibilities for more extreme rainfall events. On the
students and teachers. It is also continuously other hand, changes in rainfall distribution and in-
producing multimedia materials like brochures, t- creases in evapotranspiration could increase the
shirts and documentary films on climate change. probability, intensity and duration of drought in
currently drought-prone areas. And, more impor-
Under the Philippine Climate Change tantly, frequent occurrence of drought episodes
Program Development, the Foundation for the could damage drainage and irrigation systems
Philippine Environment (FPE), in coordination which will certainly affect agricultural production
with the Institute for Climate, Energy and in terms of reduced yield. The Philippines, being
Environment (ICEE), has produced IEC materials an archipelagic country with a prevailing tropical
43
climate, would be highly vulnerable to the impacts

of climate change. Projected Impacts
To prepare the country for the onset of cli-

mate change, the Philippines started to prepare a Temperature and Rainfall
National Action Plan (NAP) on Climate Change
in 1997. Consolidation of vulnerability studies ear-
lier conducted was done under the NAP process. For a 2 x CO2 scenario, the general circu-
The results of some of the studies used for pur- lation models predict an average increase of 2 to
poses of producing the NAP are presented here to 3°C in annual temperature. Major impact areas
provide a picture of the vulnerability of some sec- include eastern Mindanao, portions of Samar,
tors and ecosystems to climate change. Quezon, western Luzon, Metro Manila, and other
highly urbanized areas.
Simulation Models Used Based on the outputs of the GCMs, rain-

fall is likewise expected to increase in many ar-
eas of the country. A 60 to 100 percent increase
To assess the potential impacts of climate in annual rainfall is projected in the Central
change on the country, predictive models of the Visayas and Southern Tagalog provinces, includ-
climate system were employed. ing Metro Manila. An increase of 50 percent or
less is predicted in the other areas of Luzon,
Spatial and temporal variations in tempera- Samar, and the central and western parts of
ture and rainfall due to the doubling of carbon di- Mindanao. However, for other sections of the
oxide were derived using the simulation results country such as northern and eastern Mindanao
of four general circulation models (GCMs) and parts of western Luzon, a decrease in annual
namely; the Canadian Climate Center Model rainfall is expected. These predictions imply dra-
(CCCM), the United Kingdom Meteorological matic changes in spatial and temporal distribu-
Office Model (UKMO), the Geophysical Fluids tion of rainfall, which could have significant im-
Dynamic Laboratory Model (GFDL). The pacts on the country’s water resources.
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model
was also used as an additional model for the agri- Temperature change and rainfall ratios of
culture sector. the water resources regions of the Philippines
based on the Canadian model are given in Table
In selecting the appropriate GCMs, esti- 3.1.
mates of precipitation and temperature under 1 x
CO2 (present condition) from these models were Based on this table, a 2 to 3°C increase in
compared with existing climatic normals. Com- annual temperature in most water resources re-
parisons were based on large-scale temporal and gions of the country is to be expected. Regions I
spatial distribution of precipitation and tempera- and II will have an increase of less than 2°C while
ture. Results of comparisons show that the UKMO, a significant change in the annual temperature will
GFDL, and CCC models all provide good esti- be expected in Eastern Mindanao. The expected
mates of the present condition of the region. How- increase in temperature will surely have an effect
ever, only the outputs from the Canadian Climate on the expected domestic consumption although
Center Model were used as the basis for climate a quantitative analysis has yet to be undertaken.
change scenarios. The water requirement of the agricultural sector
44
Table 3.1 Temperature Change and Rainfall Ratio by Water Resource Region Based on the
Canadian Climate Center Model (2 x CO2 Scenario)
Name of Water Resource Temperature Rainfall Ratio
Regions Change (oC)
I Ilocos <2 1.0-1.5
II Cagayan Valley <2 1.0-1.5
III Central Luzon 2-3 1.0-2.0
IV Southern Tagalog 2-3 1.6-2.0
V Bicol 2-3 1.0-1.5
VI Western Visayas 2-3 1.6-2.0
VII Central Visayas 2-3 1.6-2.0
VIII Eastern Visayas 2-3 1.0-2.0
IX Western Mindanao 2-3 1.0-1.5
X Northern Mindanao 2-3 <1.0-1.5
XI Eastern Mindanao >3 <1.0
XII Southern Mindanao 2-3 1.0-1.5
will likewise be impacted due to increased crop
activity brought about by enhanced solar radia- Agriculture
tion. Global warming will also have an impact on
the industrial use of water. Soil degradation, pol-
lution and other environmental degradation are Vulnerability of selected crops (rice and
projected to be enhanced by the expected tempera- corn) to the impacts of climate change were com-
ture increase. Increase in temperature will also af- paratively assessed using the results from four glo-
fect water quality in some of the reservoirs and bal circulation models (GCM), in tandem with the
lakes due to enhanced growth of algae which could following crop models: the Crop-Environment Re-
degrade water quality. source Synthesis (CERES)-Rice and Corn Mod-
els of the Decision Support System for
Rainfall analysis showed that annual rain- Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) version 3, the
fall total is expected to double in some water re- modified version of the CERES-Rice International
sources regions such as Central Luzon, Southern Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology
Tagalog, and all regions in the Visayas. For other Transfer (IBSNAT Crop Model), the ORYZA 1
regions like northern and eastern Mindanao, a de- rice model and the Simulation Model for Rice-
crease in the annual rainfall can be expected. These Weather relations (SIMRIW) model. The list of
changes in rainfall patterns will likewise affect the the six study sites, the four GCM models used in
availability of water resources in the country. Oc- the crop-growth simulations, change in yield and
currence of intense rainfall, particularly over de- maturity period of crops in all six sites are shown
nuded watersheds, will aggravate the soil erosion in Tables 3.2 and 3.3.
problem. Flooding due to the passage of tropical
cyclones is a likely scene due to the inability of A. The Philippine Country Study on Six Ma-
existing reservoirs, that serve as flood controls, to jor Rice and Corn Growing Areas of the
contain water from the accumulated rains. Philippines.
45
Table 3.2 List of Sites Used in Simulations for the Vulnerability Assessment for Rice and Corn
Production (Philippine Country Study Project)
Location Coordinates Elevation (m) Record of Weather Soil Crop for
Data (years) Taxonomy Assessment
ISU, Isabela State 16.710N Typic

University, Echague, 121.670E 83.24 1977-1990 HAPLUSTALF Corn
Isabela
CLSU, Central Luzon

State University, 15.720N ENTIC
Munoz, Nueva Ecija 120.90E 76.00 1974-1990 PELLUSTERT Rice
UPLB, University of
the Philippines Los 14.700N Typic
Banos, Laguna 121.250E 21.70 1977-1990 PELLUDERT Rice
CSSAC, Camarines
Sur State Agricultural
College, Pili, 13.570N Typic
Camarines Sur 121.270E 35.70 1975-1990 PELEUDULT Rice
CMU, Central
Mindanao University 7.930N Typic
Musuan, Bukidnon 125.070E 302.00 1978-1990 HAPLUSTALF Rice & Corn
USM, University of 7.120N Typic

Southern Mindanao 121.830E 52.00 1969-1990 HAPLUSTALF Rice & Corn
Climate change scenarios at double CO2 • All the four GCMs indicated the same in-
concentration (2 x CO2) were created from the four creasing trend in maximum and minimum
(4) GCMs. Climate characteristics of these climate temperatures, whereas only one gave a de-
scenarios consisted of rainfall, solar radiation and crease in solar radiation amount. There was
maximum and minimum temperatures. The sea- more variation, however, in the estimated
sonal (first and second cropping seasons of each change in total rainfall among sites, sea-
crop) base climate and GCM doubled-CO2 climate sons and GCMs; although all GCM cli-
scenarios were inputted into the Crop-Environ- mate scenarios simulated a decrease in the
ment Resource Synthesis (CERES) - Rice-and- maturity period for the two rice varieties
Corn models of the DSSAT version 3 to capture used. The decrease ranged from 2.56 to
the impact of climate change on these crops. The 13.79 % corresponding to about 3 to 6-
crop models were validated using the base climate day decreases in the maturity period. This
and yield data from each site using the current indicates that climate change or an increase
(1995) CO2 concentration. in the CO2 concentration will cause a de-
crease in maturity period for the crops.
Assuming rainfed conditions, the proce-
dure was repeatedly run using all GCM scenarios, • The results of the initial crop simulations
crops and planting dates in all the sites. Prelimi- showed that the impact of doubled-CO2
nary results of the study are the following: concentration on two rice crop varieties
46
Table 3.3 Change in Yield and Maturity Period for Selected Climate Scenarios
(IV and A Assessment for Rice and Corn Production)
Study Sites Yield Change in yield (%)
Rice Cropping Base
Varieties Season (1 ha-1) CCCM GFDL GISS UKMO
A. Rice
CLSU IR 64 First 4.76 3.78 6.09 2.73 4.2
Second 3.02 7.28 1.99 7.28 -5.63
IR 72 First 3.86 1.55 3.63 -6.73 0.26
Second 2.82 0 -2.84 4.26 -10.28
UPLB IR 64 First 4.71 7.64 11.46 9.13 -12.1

Second 4.42 3.85 8.6 -13.12 -6.56
IR 72 First 3.51 6.27 11.4 9.67 -21.65
Second 4.61 1.95 6.72 -13.67 -7.38
CSSAC IR 64 First 5.14 3.89 8.37 -22.37 4.47

Second 4.23 4.49 8.51 -13.95 -9.46
IR 72 First 3.46 1.73 7.8 -27.17 -0.058
Second 4.3 3.02 6.51 -14.19 -9.77
CMU IR 64 First 5.22 1.92 1.53 1.92 -6.51

Second 3.81 11.29 18.11 7.61 5.25
IR 72 First 4.5 7.56 6.89 2.44 -4.44
Second 3.63 12.95 16.53 6.34 3.03
USM IR 64 First 4 -1.5 10.5 -84 10.25

Second 5.2 0 23.27 -12.31 16.73
IR 72 First 3.28 -7.01 14.02 -85.06 10.37
Second 4.97 -2.01 20.72 -16.5 15.29
B. Com
ISU P3228 First 6.73 -11.41 -8.62 -13.08 -5.79
Second 5.71 -3.68 0.35 -11.21 -2.98
SWEET First 5.63 -10.48 -8.88 -11.37 -6.75
Second 4.91 -7.94 -4.68 -17.72 -9.16
CMU P3228 First 9.54 -11.43 -8.39 -13.1 -12.68

Second 7.96 -1.38 4.65 -7.16 2.67
SWEET First 8.49 -11.66 -8.95 -12.25 -12.37
Second 7.42 -8.36 -1.75 -15.09 -2.02
USM P3228 First 7.14 -15.27 -17.93 -17.79 -14.57

Second 6.94 -16.14 -16.14 -17.29 -8.07
SWEET First 5.99 -15.86 -22.87 -18.36 -15.86
Second 5.61 -18.18 -18.72 -18.18 -6.6
varied. For rice, the simulations showed increases of 3.15 % and 5.38 % for the first
generally positive increases in yield, ex- and second crops, respectively, of the IR
cept in the case where the GISS scenarios 64 variety; and average increases of 2.02
were used. Under the Canadian Climate % and 3.18 % for the first and second crops
Center Model (CCCM) climate scenarios, of IR 72. The results for the sweet and PS
simulated yield at 2 x CO2 show average 3228 corn crops showed a decrease in yield
47
under all climate change scenarios. For the (or greenhouse gas-driven), an increase in
CCCM scenarios, average decreases of baseline yield of 1% was obtained.
12.64 % and 7.07 % for the first and sec-
ond crops for the PS 3228 variety, respec- 2. On the other hand, results of studies done by
tively, were indicated. Average decreases Centeno et. al. (published in 1995) to simu-
of 19.0 % and 11.49 % for the first and late effects of climate change on rice produc-
second crops of sweet corn, were also tion in the country making use of two process-
noted. based rice production models namely, the
ORYZA 1 and the Simulation Model for Rice-
The differences in responses between rice Weather Relations (SIMRIW), indicate that
and corn in the simulations could be accounted overall, the national rice production in the Phil-
by the fact that: ippines would change by +6.6 %, -14.0 % and
+1.1 % for the GFDL, GISS, and UKMO
a) rice, being a C3 plant would respond to doubled – CO2 scenarios, respectively. Table
the direct effects of CO2 both in photo- 3.4 shows the details of the estimated changes
in rice production for the whole country. Most
synthetic carbon assimilation and in regu-
of the changes reflect the effect of the scenarios
lating the gaseous exchange of CO2 and
on the wet-season rice production which pres-
water vapor through the stomata, thereby
ently contributes an average of 80 % in the
contributing to the estimate of mixed im-
annual production. Results of the simulations
pacts on rice yields since it is possible that
for the production during the dry and transi-
the crop would grow more leaves but won’t tion seasons, however, showed some dramatic
increase grain yield; and increases in yield.
b) corn, being a C4 plant would not respond The decline in yield under the GISS scenario
positively to the direct effects of CO2 but are due to higher temperatures predicted by
would be more affected by the increase in the model which would significantly reduce
air temperature which would enhance res- spikelet fertility. The modelers further indi-
piration and shorten the maturity period, cated that a warmer climate might allow a third
thereby decreasing the yield (WMO Tech- rice crop in relatively cooler regions of the
nical Note No. 196, Buan 1995). country.
B. Parallel Studies on Potential Impacts of Cli- 3. To consider the impacts of projected increase
mate Change on Rice and Corn Production. in mean temperature and CO2 concentration,
the results of a comprehensive study done by
1. An earlier parallel study done by L.V. Buendia a team of experts at IRRI (Ingram et al, 1995)
at the International Rice Research Institute on effects of high temperatures and increased
using the GCM climate change scenarios and CO2 concentrations on crop production indi-
a modified version of the CERES-Rice Inter- cate that overall rice production could still re-
national Benchmark Sites Network for spond positively to the projected changes both
Agrotechnology Transfer or IBSNAT Crop in temperature and CO2 concentrations, al-
Model gave interesting results. Under a sce- though corn may be adversely affected.
nario of climate change (increase in tempera-
ture) alone, there is an average reduction of 4. Studies on responses to high temperatures in-
22% in rice baseline yield. However, under the dicate that once threshold values are exceeded,
same climate change with physiological effects rice crops will be adversely affected.
48
Table 3.4 Estimated Changes in Rice Production from Each of the Administrative Regions in
the Philippines and from the Whole Country. Proportional Changes are the
Averages of those Predicted for All Stations in Each of the Administrative Regions.
Region Current GFDL GISS UKMO
(tons) % Change tons % Change tons % Change tons
NCR 152,559 2.6 156,476 -11.1 135,669 16.9 178,319
I 898,584 -3.8 864,238 -17.0 745,538 2.2 918,241
II 1,033,615 -3.8 994,108 -17.0 857,571 2.2 1,056,226
III 1,748,491 2.6 1,793,379 -11.1 1,554,911 16.9 2,043,730
IV 1,118,085 10.2 1,232,604 -6.2 1,048,730 -0.4 1,113,437
V 744,223 5.4 784,357 -32.0 506,260 -20.5 591,716
VI 1,183,887 11.9 1,324,583 -11.1 1,053,064 -7.4 1,096,816
VII 207,700 11.9 232,384 -11.1 184,749 -7.4 192,424
VIII 382,954 11.9 428,465 -11.1 340,637 -7.4 354,789
IX 399,038 18.5 473,040 5.7 421,617 11.1 443,166
X 531,777 10.5 587,861 -22.1 414,386 -39.5 321,605
XI 688,302 13.3 779,593 -16.9 571,880 -1.4 678,580
XII 584,047 13.3 661,510 -16.9 485,259 -1.4 575,798
Total 9,673,262 10,312,598 8,320,271 9,564,847
% Change from
the Current 6.6 -14.0 -1.1
High temperatures reduce crop productivity in c) Growth and development

two ways: through more acute high-stress Temperature values Effects
events and through chronic effects of higher 29/21°C to 41/33°C shoot dry weight at flower-
average temperatures. ing decreased for all culti
vars except IR 72
a) Acute heat-stress injury
Temperature values Effects 29/21°C to 33/25°C root dry weight decreased
day time temperature impaired flowering (by as much as 50%) for IR
of >38°C and fertilization 20, IR 46, IR 64
daytime temperature very little direct impact 5. On the other hand, in the case of elevated at-
up to 41°C on leaf CO2 assimilation mospheric CO2, the following are the known
(with direct benefit)
effects:
b) Chronic high-temperature effects
Temperature values Effects
• Increased growth rate and yield through en-
29/21°C to 37/29°C no significant difference in hanced photosynthesis (Imai et al, 1995)
rate of tiller appearance and • Above 500 mL/L, positive response dimin-
no. of tillers at 72 days ishes
after sowing; further • Upper limit of increased atmospheric CO2:
increase to 41/33°C
660 mL/L
significantly reduced
tiller development
49
Table 3.5 indicates the threshold values

of CO2 concentrations at different growth stages Vulnerability of Other Sectors
of rice crops.
Water Resources
Table 3.5 CO2 Concentration Values at Different Growth Stages
Growth Stage Values of CO2 Concentrations In spite of its rela-

Tiller development 350 mL/L increase for all 425-750 mL/L no further tively abundant water
cultivars increase for all cultivars resources, the country,
particularly the urban
areas, periodically ex-
Time from sowing to Greatest at 425 mL/L Decline at higher and lower perienced water crises
flowering levels over the past years.
Causes of these water
Shoot dry weight Greatest at 425-500 mL/L for Decrease at higher levels supply problems are
all cultivars other than IR30 the rapid increase in
population, fast grow-
Root dry weight Trends to double as CO2 Decline above 425 mL/L ing demands of agri-
culture and industry,
increase from 350-425 mL/L
the expanding urban-
ization, unabated pol-
lution of the water bod-
ies and the effect of extreme climatic variability.
For interactive effects of elevated atmo-
spheric CO2 and temperature, both are likely to The large requirements of households, in-
change crop yields and results of experiments industries and agriculture increasingly exceed avail-
dicate that: able water supplies. Metro Manila, as an example,
has had several experiences of water scarcity in
• Indica rice produced more tiller than the past due to prolonged drought associated with
Tropical Japonica for all combinations climatic variability. Months of low rainfall have
of temperature and CO2; shown the inability of the Angat reservoir to sup-
ply the growing water requirements, not only of
• For Indica rice, increased CO2 short- the city’s ballooning population, but even the other
ened the time for panicle emergence sectors like agriculture, as well.
at 37/29°C but delayed panicle emer-
gence at 29/21°C. In upland cultivar, The water requirement of the agricultural
there was no significant interaction be- sector will be impacted due to increased crop ac-
tween CO2 and temperature on time for tivity brought about by enhanced solar radiation.
panicle emergence; and Both rainfed and irrigated crops will require more
• Indica rice was generally photoperiod- water in a warmer world. A U.S. study (McCabe
insensitive. and Wolock, 1992) indicates that, for a broad range
of increases in temperature and precipitation, an-
Table 3.6 shows the results of the Imai nual irrigation demand increases, even with a 20%
study in 1995. increase in precipitation.
50
Table 3.6 Response of Rice to Elevated CO2 and Temperature (Imai, 1995)
CO2 Concentration Temperature
Photosynthesis 30-50% increase at 700-1000 ml/L

but higher levels, photosynthetic
acclimation (decline from expected
rates)
Respiration At 160-900 ml/L, there is

suppressed specific dark respiration
and increased net production of rice
Transpiration and water At high levels, transpiration

use efficiency decreases and water use efficiency
is increased
Vegetative growth
a) Leaf development Increased leaf weight at high levels At moderately high temperature
(33/26 oC) ontogenesis is
shortened and yield reduced
b) Tillering At high levels, more tillers At high nightime temperature with

high CO2 levels, late tillering-
lower harvest index
c) Rooting With elevated CO2, length of crown

roots increased and water and
nutrient absorption improved
d) Production of dry At elevated CO2 level, more dry Increased temperature promotes
matter matter production net assimilation rate and leaf area
Yield components High CO2 reduces quality of rice High CO2 combined with high night
(effective tiller, filled (but could be corrected by cultural time temperature result to decline of
grains/panicle and grain practices) maturity percentage and yield.
weight) Spikelet fertility is highly sensitive to
values below 20 oC and above 33 oC.
Grain quality High CO2 reduces quality of rice

(but could be corrected by cultural
practices)
The expected increase in temperature will ses, to date, have drawn information from the water
surely have an effect on the future domestic water users’ responses to short-term drought or warm
demand although a quantitative analysis has yet episodes. Short-term responses of water use could
to be undertaken. Kindler and Russel (1984) ob- be much different when users are faced with per-
served that per residence, water is positively cor- manent acceptance of water restrictions and pos-
related with average temperature. Little work has sible lifestyle changes. Results of other studies
been completed on the impact of long-term cli- undertaken in some developed countries showed
mate change on domestic water use. Most analy- that an additional 5% increase in domestic demand
51
could be expected due to global warming changes in precipitation rather than changes in
(Kaczmarek and Kindler, 1989; Hanaki, 1993). For temperature would directly affect changes in
developing countries like the Philippines, little is Angat’s runoff. The changes in precipitation and
known about the impact of climate change on do- temperature and the corresponding changes in run-
mestic water use. off based on the climate change scenarios gener-
ated by three General Circulation Models (GCMs);
Initial efforts were undertaken to under- the Canadian Climate Center (CCC), the United
stand the impact of climate change/variability and Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and the
other human activities on the country’s water re- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
sources. Jose, et al (1993) examined long term are shown in Table 3.7. The UKMO and GFDL
trends of atmospheric data such as rainfall and models showed an increase in runoff by 5 and 32%,
temperature which are known to be affected by respectively. The increase in runoff is attributable
climate change. Year-to-year variations of annual to an increase in precipitation predicted by the two
and seasonal inflows at various major water res- models. The GFDL has the highest percent change
ervoirs in the Philippines were examined. Results in runoff; it has 15% increase in precipitation
indicated decreasing inflows in all of the reser- coupled with a 2.4°C increase in temperature. The
voirs. Minimal and maximal inflows were found UKMO model predicted only a small increase in
to be associated with the activity of the El Nino- precipitation but predicted a higher increase in
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This extreme vari- temperature than the other models. Under the
ability and the decreasing trend of inflows have CCCM scenario, a 12% annual runoff reduction
significant socio-economic impacts and possible is estimated based on the estimated decrease in
adverse implications on the water resource man- annual rainfall and increase in temperature.
agement of the country.
Runoff simulation results indicate that the
One of the studies made was the vulner- expected rise in temperature in the future will not
ability analysis of the Angat reservoir to the ex- be a significant factor in Angat’s runoff variabil-
pected climate change. The Angat Reservoir is one ity, although the impacts of temperature increase
of the main sources of drinking water for Metro could be manifested in water demand. The great
Manila. As part of the Philippine Country Study variability in rainfall with respect to time, as sug-
to Address Climate Change, Angat’s vulnerabil- gested by the model results, will likewise have
ity to climate change was assessed and possible significant implications particularly on water avail-
adaptation measures identified. Based on histori- ability. Very high rainfall estimates during the rainy
cal hydrologic data, Angat’s inflow is very much season (May to September) could result to the
dependent on rainfall. Periods of low rainfall over overflowing of reservoirs (floods) while lower
the watershed areas resulted in
low inflows (translated to low
Table 3.7 Changes in Precipitation, Temperature, and Runoff for Angat
water level for the reservoir) while Water Reservoir Based on the Three GCMs (2xCO2Scenario)
years of high rainfall yielded high
water levels for Angat dam. Based GCM Change in Change in Change in
on this relationship and with the
o
expected changes in rainfall dis- Precipitation Temperature ( C) Runoff
tribution under the doubling of CCCM -6% +2.0 -12%
CO2 scenario, the Angat reservoir
is projected to be seriously af- UKMO 3% +3.1 5%
fected. Results showed that GFDL 15% +2.4 32%
52
rainfall estimates during the dry season, compared significant decrease in runoff (18% or more) due
with actual conditions, could mean water short- to decrease in rainfall which were associated with
ages/crises. The threat to Angat reservoir from the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related
climate change could be aggravated by the increas- drought events. These results simply indicate that
ing population, which translates to more demand runoff is more sensitive to precipitation variabil-
for water, and the degradation of the physical en- ity compared to temperature changes.
vironment, which could affect, to some extent, the
hydrology of the area.
Coastal Resources
Vulnerability analysis of Lake Lanao
(which is also a subject of the Philippine Country
Study to Address Climate Change) also showed Climate change may aggravate existing
similar results. Global warming in the future will coastal problems. It may lead to a range of im-
affect the lake’s inflow significantly, thus making pacts including sea level rise and changes in
it highly susceptible to climate change impacts. storminess, precipitation and freshwater availabil-
Changes in the seasonal rainfall pattern will like- ity. Accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) will affect
wise have similar effects. Based on incremental coastal areas and the physical and biological sys-
climate change scenarios, runoff is much more sen- tems. It will also affect port and coastal infrastruc-
sitive to rainfall than temperature. With no change ture, as well as, traditional lifestyles and culture
in the coastal zones.
The Natural Disaster Re-

duction Branch (NDRB) of
PAGASA has conducted an in-
vestigation of the responses of
the physical characteristics and
natural systems to sea level
changes of some coastal places
in the Philippines (NDRB,
1996). This consisted of limited
site surveys and interviews to
note the type of coast (e.g.,
rocky, sandy), system responses
Lake Lanao will be significantly affected by the impacts of climate change. (such as erosion, saltwater intru-
sion), coastal disaster history,
in temperature and a decrease in rainfall by 10% vegetation and socio-economic information. This
and 20%, there will be a corresponding decrease activity has contributed a lot to the inventory of
in runoff by 1.88% and 17.51%, respectively. A baseline information on the physical and natural
2°C increase in temperature and again a 10% and systems of different coastal areas in the country.
20% decrease in rainfall would translate to a 2.5% Figure 3.6 shows these coastal areas. The basis
and 18.16% decrease in runoff. Likewise, further of area selection is its being predisposed to flood-
increasing the temperature to 4°C with a 10% and ing.
20% decrease in rainfall would result to 3.14%
and 18.77% decrease in runoff, respectively. Based Tidal and current data of the Philippine wa-
on historical data, Lake Lanao has experienced ters are recorded and analyzed by the Coast and
53
Figure 3.6 Areas Inventoried for Physical and Natural Systems Responses
(Also Identified as Low Lying Areas of the Philippines)
BASCO
APARRI
LAOAG
TUGUEGARAO
VIGAN LEGEND:
PLACE VISITED/
INVESTIGATED
BALER
DAGUPAN
INFANTA
IBA
FORT AREA
DAET
LEGASPI
CALAPAN
ROMBLON
CATARMAN
MASBATE CATBALOGAN
ROXAS BORONGAN
CUYO TACLOBAN
GUIUAN
ILOILO
CEBU
MAASIN
TAGBILARAN
PUERTO PRINCESA
SURIGAO
DUMAGUETE
BUTUAN
HINATUAN
DIPOLOG
CAGAYAN DE ORO
ZAMBOANGA DAVAO
COTABATO
GEN. SANTOS
JOLO
54
Geodetic Survey Department (CGSD) of the Na- list consisted of 28 locations (provinces) with 102
tional Mapping and Resource Information Admin- municipalities (towns or cities). Based on 1990
istration (NAMRIA). Although there are 10 pri- statistics, a total area of 129,114 ha. will be af-
mary tidal gauge stations, only five stations record fected with a total population of approximately 2
almost continuous observations since 1950. The million (See Table 3.9).
secondary stations make special observations only.
Figure 3.7 shows the locations of these stations Data on coastal ecological resources indi-
while Figure 3.8 depicts the mean sea level for cate dwindling figures. Some of the causes are:
the five primary stations namely: Manila, Cebu,
Davao, Legazpi and Jolo. Except for Jolo, all sta- • The conversion of mangrove forests into
tions indicate an increasing trend. fishponds, saltbeds, rice paddies and even
for residential, commercial and industrial
Records show that starting 1964, there has purposes;
been a slightly increasing trend in the sea level. • Over-exploitation of mangroves for tim-
The Manila Bay area was observed to have a very ber use, firewood, and tanbarks;
steep rise. Carandang (1992), in his study of the • Pollution due to mining and dumping of
variation of sea level in the Manila Bay, indicated mine tailings and solid wastes;
that there was no reason to believe that the area is • Siltation due to agricultural cultivation and
influenced by subsidence. However, deforestation mining; Natural causes like storm surges,
in the upstream of the bay’s tributaries contrib- tsunami and volcanic activity affect the
uted to the sediment load of the bay. Also, the la- productivity and lifespan of sea grasses;
har and other volcanic materials resulting from the • Bleaching of coral reefs; and
eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, has contributed • Illegal fishing methods; Fishponds may
much to the siltation of the Bay waters. Other temporarily increase aquaculture yield,
places showed a more gradual increase in mean however, such will compromise the replen-
sea level. Table 3.8 shows trends in the annual ishment of coastal fish stocks.
mean sea level of the five stations.
The decline of wetlands/freshwater
Table 3.8 reveals that an increasing trend swamps may be traced to the lack of a coherent
in annual mean sea level generally occurred in the policy on the proper use and management of such
1970s, except for Manila which started in the sites and to the fact that these have been declared
1960s. Although the absolute mean sea level val- as built-up areas.
ues for Manila are higher, the increase(s) for
Legazpi and Davao are slightly more than the Given the existing situation, anthropogenic
change registered for Manila. However, what is global warming due to increasing GHG emissions
alarming is that except for Cebu and Jolo, all sta- which may lead to ASLR, will exacerbate the vul-
tions showed an increase near 15 cm, the lowest nerability of the coastal ecosystems which are al-
expected sea level rise (SLR) set by IPCC, at the ready heavily stressed.
end of the next century. This could be an indica-
tion that SLR is now occurring in the Philippines. The most significant impact of climate
change on coastal ecosystems is the accelerated
In 1992, using the topography as the sole sea level rise (ASLR). ASLR can lead to the in-
basis for evaluation, NAMRIA prepared a list of creased erosion of beaches and cliffs and the di-
places in the Philippines which will be endangered rect inundation of low-lying lands; higher water
in case of a projected SLR of 100 cm (or 1m). The tables resulting in floods and water logging after
55
FIGURE 3.7 Location of Tide Gauge Stations in the Philippines
BASCO
LEGEND:
PRIMARY TIDE
STATION
SAN VICENTE
Port Irene
CURRIMAO SECONDARY TIDE
STATION
SAN FERNANDO
LUZON SEA
PHILIPPINE SEA
MANILA
VIRAC
BATANGAS
LEGASPI
LAOAN
SAN JOSE
TABLAS PORT BATAN
STRAIT
ILOILO
CEBU
BANAGO
PENASCOSA TAGBILARAN
SURIGAO
DUMAGUETE BOHOL SEA
SULU SEA ILIGAN

OZAMI BISLIG
BALABAC Z CAGAYAN DE ORO
DAVAO
BASILAN
MINDANAO SEA
56
Figure 3.8 Annual Mean Sea Level for Five Primary Stations
2.900
2.700
Mean Sea Level, m
2.500
2.300
2.100
1.900
1.700
1.500
1.300
485052545658606264666870727476788082848688909294 Year
Manila Legazpi Davao Jolo Cebu
heavy rains; increased risk of flood and storm dam- sponsorship of the US government conducted a V
age; changes in tides of rivers and bays; and & A study on coastal resources with respect to
changes in sediment deposition affecting tidal flats ASLR, with particular emphasis on the Manila Bay
and wetlands. coastal area. The basis of selection is the avail-
ability of pertinent data and the highly vulnerable
Most areas along the coast will succumb state of the place. Sea level scenarios used were
to a one-meter sea level rise and densely popu- 0.3 m and 1.0 m to represent the low and high
lated coastal areas will be very vulnerable to storm scenarios of IPCC, and a 2 m ASLR as a worst
surges. Coral reefs and wetlands that are already case scenario. Among the preliminary findings
heavily stressed may not be able to keep pace with (Perez, et. al., 1996) include:
changes in sea level and mangroves may not sur-
vive changes in sediments and salinity. • Manila Bay Area is vulnerable to sea level
rise from both physical and socioeconomic
The Philippine Country Study to address standpoints
climate change issues and concerns under the
• Most areas along the
Table 3.8 Trend in Annual Mean Sea Level (in meters) coast will succumb to a one-
meter sea level rise, specially
STATION 1950 To 1959 1950 to 1969 1970 to 1979 1980 to 1989
Change Change Change Change
Navotas, Malabon, Paraña-
Manila -0.7 +0.083 +0.183 +0.142 que, Las Piñas, Manila and
Legaspi +0.044 -0.071 +0.074 +0.165 Pasay in Metro Manila; and
Davao -0.099 -0.024 +0.069 +0.165 the provinces of Bulacan
Cebu -0.09 -0.085 +0.027 +0.009 [Hagonoy, Paombong, Ma-
Jolo -0.08 -0.078 -0.020 +0.069
57
Table 3.9 Areas Endangered by Sea Level Rise (for a projected SLR of 100 cm)
No. of Municipalities/
Location Cities Area, in ha. Population
1. Ilocos Norte 6 2,169 9,170
2. Ilocos Sur 5 2,849 6,580
3. Cagayan 5 9,516 18,175
4. La Union 2 204 2,420
5. Pangasinan 5 24,018 246,000
6. Zambales 5 3,478 48,493
7. Aurora 2 1,060 5,036
8. Quezon 5 3,017 23,550
9. Cavite 3 5,512 230,506
10. Metro Manila 5 1,508 429,600
11. Bulacan 2 1,240 130,000
12. Leyte 4 1,683 27,596
13. Samar 4 20,596 80,710
14. Bohol 6 11,934 74,912
15. Negros Occidental 6 9,061 204,972
16. Mindoro Oriental 3 2,954 3,169
17. Davao del Sur 5 1,683 5,020
18. Davao Oriental 2 864 7,910
19. Surigao del Norte 3 6,412 23,585
20. Capiz 1 2,714 103,171
21. Iloilo 2 1,728 64,661
22. Cebu 2 1,497 146,194
23. Agusan del Norte 2 3,494 26,211
24. Misamis Oriental 5 1,939 19,350
25. Misamis Occidental 4 3,536 19,582
26. Camarines Sur 4 1,893 13,005
27. Negros Occidental 3 1,498 23,337
28. Maguindanao 1 1,057 2,500
Total 129,114 1,995,415
Source: NAM RIA 1992
lolos, Bulacan, Marilao, Bocaue, Obando, • Considering present costs (1995), coastal
Meycauayan, Guiguinto] and Cavite protection will be a very costly solution.
[Kawit, Noveleta, Rosario, Bacoor, Cavite For example, a concrete sea-wall 3 m high
City]. and 1 m thick with an underwater base that
is 1.5 high and 3 m thick will cost US $0.6
• Densely populated areas along the coast, million per kilometer.
especially the squatter areas of Navotas
and Malabon, may survive ASLR but will
be very vulnerable to severe storm surge(s) Forestry
• Saltwater intrusion will adversely affect

agricultural productivity and water qual- Changes in rainfall pattern may increase
ity. the rate of conversion of forest(s) to agricultural
58
lands due to human migration from areas degraded relationship though is characterized by a time lag
by drought and erosion to more productive forest- as observations by the Bureau of Fisheries and
lands. In drier areas, increase in CO2 will likely Aquatic Resources (BFAR) indicate. The bloom
increase productivity of vegetation by increasing was found to appear at the onset of the rainy sea-
water-use efficiency. A decrease in soil moisture son, immediately after a prolonged, warm dry pe-
in drier areas may accelerate forest loss while an riod with peaks towards the heavy rainfall months
increase in precipitation beyond evaporation de- (BFAR, 1993). It appears then that the warm, dry
mand could increase runoff resulting in soil ero- episode triggers the spawning of red tide, while
sion and flood occurrences. The local biodiversity humid conditions at the start of the rainy season
will also decrease through extinction and inhibi- provide nourishment for its further growth.
tion of reimmigration from adjacent areas.
Mangrove for-
ests are a unique fea-
ture of protected
coastal shorelines of
the tropics and sub-
tropics; their root
systems stabilize
sediment, dampen
wave energy, pro-
vide habitat shelter
for numerous organ-
isms and provide the
basis for the
nearshore marine
food web (Vicente,
et. al., 1992). The
best developed man-
grove forests are as-
The rate of forestland conversion may increase due to drought and erosion. sociated with the ar-
eas of high rainfall
and upstream runoff.
In the tropics, marine organisms live closer Thus, in terms of global climate change, future
to their maximum thermal tolerance than those in changes in rainfall pattern and runoff will have
more temperate climates (Vicente et. al. 1992). Al- severe impacts on mangroves. Mangroves grow
though the 1.5°C temperature rise scenario would best in moderately saline environments and could
raise the summertime mean temperature to 30.5°C keep up with sea level rise of up to 12 cm/100
over much of the tropical/subtropical region, most years.
migratory species are expected to be able to toler-
ate such changes. The IPCC Assessment (1990) also ex-
pressed concern that the rise in sea level may ag-
The occurrence of red tide or pyrodinium gravate leaching of contaminants from coastal
blooms which have become health and fishery sewerage and toxic waste disposal in nearby hu-
problems in the Philippines since 1983 is also re- man population centers and agricultural regions.
lated to increased sea surface temperature. This Bacterial and viral agents present in such sites and
59
in coastal septic sewerage systems could be in- · Developing some estimate of climate change
creasingly released to coastal waters. While there based on mean monthly weather data (mini-
are potential impacts on coastal resources includ- mum and maximum temperatures; rainfall
ing nutrient loading of confined waters (Valiela and humidity; and, mean sea-level pres-
and Costa, 1991) the primary concern is for the sure).
human populations who consume the resources
and the loss of commerce caused by the closure These were drawn from reports of the
of fish and shellfish areas by health authorities. PAGASA Synoptic Stations in areas representing
each of the four climate types determined using a
Modified Coronas classification -
Health
Ø Station 324 in Iba, Zambales as an area
with Type I climate;
Consideration of climate change effects is
relatively new to public health sector workers in Ø Station 440 in Daet, Camarines Norte
the Philippines. However, such are currently be- as an area with Type II climate and
ing factored into the discussions in the health sec- Station 444 in Legaspi, Albay with a
tor. Assessments indicate that the health situation mix of Type II, III, and IV climates;
is aggravated by poverty and inequity, the emer-
gence of new challenges in the midst of unresolved Ø Station 618 in Puerto Princessa,
problems, a very low government budget for Palawan as an area with Type III
health, and poor-allocation of limited resources. climate; and
Compounded by the effects of climate change, this
Ø Station 753 in Davao City and Station
calls for a combination of immediate vertical and
748 in Cagayan de Oro, Misamis
longer-term horizontal approaches.
Oriental as areas with Type IV climate.
The assessment of potential impacts of cli-
The following formula for measuring an
mate change on human health is a new area of “estimate of climate change” in any year was used:
inquiry. Researchers are still in the process of
developing methodologies, techniques, and pa- The sum of the differences between the
rameters for study (McMichael AJ et.al. 1996). monthly observed value of a climate element
According to McMichael et.al., these studies have minus the monthly mean of that element during a
to take into account the evaluation of climatolo- given base period, i.e., monthly weather data for a
gists of when, where, and to what extent the on- particular year (from 1961 to 1993) minus mean
going greenhouse gas accumulation will translate of the monthly weather data for the period from
into changes in climate. Secondly, they have to 1951 to 1960. For example, the “climate change”
determine how those climate changes could af- measure for 1999 would correspond to:
fect the world’s biogeophysical system.
The sum of [monthly weather
In the Philippines, a study was undertaken values (1999 January to
under the Enabling Activity for the Preparation of December) minus the mean of each
the Initial National Communication. For this study, corresponding monthly (January to
the following approach to correlate climate change December) weather data for the
and human health was utilized: period from 1951 to 1960].
60
Using the above estimation, 5 “measures contaminated food or water – 13 Diarrhea,
of climate change” for each year from 1961 to 1993 14 Cholera, 15 Typhoid, 16 Hepatitis, 17
were generated: a “climate change measure” for Polio
minimum temperatures, a “climate change
measure” for maximum temperature, a “climate Diseases coming through the skin – 18
change measure” for rainfall, a “climate change Tetanus, 19 Schistosomiasis
measure” for humidity, and a “climate change
measure” for mean sea level pressure. This process Sexually transmitted diseases – 20
was applied to the five provinces and one city Syphilis, 21 Gonorrhea
studied.
Mosquito-vector borne diseases – 22
· Determining health impact using the Malaria, 23 Dengue or H-Fever, 24
incidence of selected diseases. Filariasis
For this study, existing central office data Animal borne diseases – 25 Rabies, 26
Anthrax
of the Department of Health (DOH) from its
Health Intelligence Service was utilized. Data on
Other diseases – 27 Cancers, 28 Nutritional
file include the yearly incidence of notifiable
Deficiencies
diseases consolidated at the provincial and city
levels from 1961 to 1993. The incidence and
Disorders of the heart and AIDS were
population weighted per 100,000 was chosen. excluded because of the absence of data
Reports from the following areas were used – for most of the study and baseline period.
Ø The province of Zambales; TB meningitis, pulmonary Tuberculosis
Ø The province of Camarines Norte; and other forms of TB were all grouped
Ø The province of Albay; under Tuberculosis. In the same manner;
Ø The province of Palawan; Amebiasis, food poisoning, and Enteritis
Ø The province of Misamis Oriental; and were all classified as Diarrhea.
Ø The City of Davao.
Correlating the yearly (1961 to 1963) “measures
Data on the following diseases were of climate change” with the incidence of
collected: notifiable diseases.
Viral infections that are spread by droplets
The disease incidence from each province
from coughs/colds – 1 Influenzae (Flu), 2
or city was treated as a dependent variable, and
Varicella (Chicken Pox), 3 Measles, 4
all the “measures of climate change” as
Mumps, 5 Viral Encephalitis
independent variables. Then the sample coefficient
of multiple determination (R2) was computed from
General respiratory diseases – 6
Bronchitis, 7 Pneumonia regression analysis.
i.e. Y = incidence of one notifiable disease reported,

Bacterial infections that are spread by and
droplets from coughs/colds – 8 X 1 as Climate Change measure of Minimum
Tuberculosis, 9 Diphtheria, 10 Whooping Temperature,
Cough, 11 Meningococcemia, 12 Leprosy X 2 as Climate Change measure of Maximum
Infections that are spread from feces to Temperature,
61
X3 as Climate Change measure of Rainfall, For this study, the highest R 2 are for
X4 as Climate Change measure of Humidity, and cancers, nutritional deficiencies, and mumps.
X5 as Climate Change measure of Mean Sea-Level
Values well above 0.3 were observed for most of
Pressure
the infections that are droplet-spread: Bronchitis
and Pneumonia, Influenzae, Chicken Pox,
This was done for all six study areas, with Tuberculosis, Meningococcemia, and with the
28 notifiable diseases. The sample coefficient(s) exception of Tetanus which is contracted through
of multiple determination for each work area and the skin. Apart from Polio, all the food or water-
their averages are provided in Figure 3.9. borne diseases have R2 values of around 0.3 or
above this. The vector-borne diseases (Schisto-
The closer R2 is to 1.0 means that 100% of somiasis, Malaria, and Filariasis) show a generally
the variation between the values of the health index lower R2 value but that for Dengue or H-Fever is
(incidence of the notifiable disease) is accounted even higher.
for by a linear relationship with the “measurements
of climate change.” Measles, Diphtheria, Leprosy, Syphilis,
Gonorrhea, Rabies, and Anthrax all have lower
The study started with a hypothesis that R2 values. It must be noted that an R value closer
climate change is one factor that impacts on health to zero implies a lack of linearity in the relationship
but there are other alternative explanations and not a lack of association (Walpole 1997).
contributing to the observed health status. As such, Particularly for the mosquito-vector borne
sample coefficients of multiple determination diseases, it is possible that the association is not
closer to 1.0 were not expected. Similar to the linear but may be quadratic, where mosquito
PAGASA NDRB protocol, R2 values around 0.3 breeding pools are created by increasing climate
(30% linear relationship) were considered worth change (for example, minimal rainfall) up to a
noting (Bucoy, 1998). point and decreases with higher levels of rainfall.
FIGURE 3.9 AVERAGE OF SAMPLE COEFFICIENTS OF MULTIPLE DETERMINATION OVER SIX

STUDYofAREAS
Figure 3.9 Average of Sample Coefficients Multiple Determination Over Six Study Areas
0.7
0.6
0.5
R squared
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
mumps
malaria
polio
diphtheria
measles
pneumonias
malignant neoplasms
bronchitis
tetanus
meningococcemia
rabies
filariasis
cholera
typhoid, salmonella in.
schistosomiasis
influenzae
varicella
leprosy
anthrax
viral encephalitis
infxs hepatitis
nutritional deficiencies
diarrhea (all forms)
tuberculosis (all forms)
whooping cough
gonococcal infection
dengue, h-fever
syphilis (yaws, chanc)
Notifiable Diseases
62
These results exhibit association ranging IPCC methodologies. The result of the assessment
from 10% to 58% between climate change (using made in a series of focused and consultative
the crude measurement proposed) and health (as workshops held with major stakeholders is a mix
indicated by disease incidence). of economic, technological, institutional and
research strategies which are listed below:
While there are indicative trends, these
have to be validated and, therefore, more studies Economic
need to be undertaken.
1. Liberalization of agricultural trade barriers
2. Changes in existing subsidies
Adaptation Strategies 3. Extensive review/analysis of and
appropriate action on economic incentives,
subsidies, taxes, pricing and trade barriers
Agriculture
Technological
The preliminary results of the various 1. Changes in agricultural management

vulnerability studies indicate varied results. What practices
is certain, however, is that global warming or 2. Natural rainfall management including
temperature increases would cause the water impounding dams and evaporation
enhancement of activity of weeds and pests, and control
plant diseases; the reduced effectiveness of 3. Cropping pattern adjustment according to
insecticides, pesticides and herbicides; and the the onset of the rainy season and observed
acceleration of soil degradation. These are frequency of tropical cyclones, including
projected to weaken the positive effects of information dissemination to farmers and
enhanced photosynthesis and a warmer climate on timely provision of farm weather services/
crop production. advisories, early warning systems
(PAGASA - DA)
Increased research on these areas and 4. Access to available data on soil fertility
planning for adaptive measures should, therefore, from BSWM, particularly on
be undertaken. There are three aspects that are • Improved water management
highly vulnerable to climate change: the loss of • Developing heat-resistant varieties/genetic
arable lands due to sea level rise; decreased soil breeding
fertility due to increased soil erosion; and • Improved farm management
decreased crop productivity. Consequences of • Organic farming
decreased crop yield would be a loss of food supply • Diversified farming
and a loss of jobs, especially for subsistence • Safe and judicious use of fertilizers/
farmers. Therefore, it is essential that there are chemicals
plans for mitigating the projected adverse impacts • Optimum/efficient use of fertilizers/
of climate change through a careful and exhaustive chemicals
choice of adaptation strategies. • Increasing effectivity/flexibility of
irrigation
The mix of identified possible strategies • Introduction of new least-cost technologies
for adaptation and mitigation were assessed such as hydroponics
following the decision matrix described in the • Improvement of post - harvest and bulk
63
handling facilities (i.e. installation of grain- irrigation system development. Some of them will
drying facilities in strategic areas). not even cost the government additional funding
(i.e., collaboration between managers of weather
Institutional data, water resources, farmers and policy makers
and strengthening of extension services). All that
Institutionalizing agricultural drought is needed is improved coordination of basic
management through: services being provided by the various agencies
in government. However, the recommended
1. Collaboration between managers of strategies entailing research and development of
weather data, water resources, farmers, new systems (i.e., upgrading food storage
policy makers system(s), improved water management,
2. Passage of legislative measures including developing new heat-resistant varieties, genetic
those on land use conversion breeding and others) will need some funding . The
3. Strengthening of extension services at the rest of the recommended options will depend on
local government unit level strong advocacy and political will (i.e., legislative
measures on land-use conversion and irrigation
• Upgrade food storage distribution system development).
system
• Promote and implement judicious land
use planning Coastal Resources
Research
There are currently no existing policies or
Study/review of and improvement of measures which directly address climate change
existing policies associated with production, and its impacts on the population, natural resources
processing, storage, transport and marketing to and infrastructures in the coastal zone. However,
derive optimum effectiveness from research, there are a number of laws and regulations
technological developments and land use regarding the use, protection, rehabilitation and
practices. exploitation of resources along the coast. These
are as follows:
The adaptation strategies being recom-
mended were chosen primarily because most of Policies
them will be least cost when implemented (i.e.,
natural rainfall management, cropping pattern Development
adjustment, access to available information like
soil fertility, soil taxonomy, etc.). A number of • RA 1899 - Reclamation of foreshore lands
these measures are already being done by the by chartered cities and municipalities
Department of Agriculture. These are: safe and • RA 2056 - Prohibits removal and/or
judicious and optimum/efficient use of fertilizers demolition of dams and dikes or other
or the so-called Balanced Fertilization Strategy, works in public navigable waters and
implementation of strategies to address the ENSO waterways and in communal fishing
episodes, and the introduction of new least-cost grounds.
technologies such as hydroponics and evaporation • DENR AO 76 (1987) - Establishment of
control. These measures are viewed to entail little buffer zones in coastal, estuarine and
investment costs compared to the planned mangrove areas.
64
Coastal Resources Exploitation and fees on foreshore, marshy, reclaimed and
Protection other government lands occupied by any
person or entity without authority or
• PD 600/ PD 979 - Marine Pollution Law permit.
• PD 604 - Revising and consolidating all
laws affecting fishing and fisheries There are no clear-cut policies on the use
• RA 5173 - Creating the Philippine Coast and management of wetlands, mangroves, coral
Guard reefs and other precious coastal ecosystems.
• PD 1998 - Restoration and rehabilitation Among the recurrent coastal management issues
of areas subject to development, that need to be addressed are the over-exploitation
exploration and exploitation, to their of fishing grounds; conversion of mangroves to
original conditions. other uses; the destruction of coral reefs and sea
• Coastal Resources Management in the grass beds; and the red tide phenomenon. Some
Local Government Code (RA 7160) barriers to effective implementation that have been
identified include institutional weakness(es) at
National Marine Policy different levels of government and the lack of
resources to enforce existing rules and regulations.
• Extent of national territory
• Protection of marine ecology Plans/Programs
• Management of the marine economy and
technology There are currently plans and programs
• Maritime security which are either being implemented or still to be
undertaken to address the problems and issues of
Habitation the country’s coastal zones. Among these are the
following:
• Act No. 3038 Authorizing the Secretary
of Agriculture to sell or lease lands of Philippine Master Plan for Marine and
private domain. Coastal Environment
• Commonwealth Act No 141 - Public Land
Act On April 22, 1993, the Department of
• Lands Office Circular No. 29 - Precautions Environment and Natural Resources established
to be observed in the disposition of lands the Coastal Environment Program (CEP) through
adjoining rivers, streams, creeks, lakes and Administrative Order No. 19, to implement
other bodies of water. programs and projects on the conservation and
• PD 1585 - Prescribing certain standards management of coastal and marine ecosystem. The
for government contracts, concessions, CEP encompasses all concerns over the habitat
licenses, permits, leases or similar and ecological support systems of coastal
privileges involving the exploration, communities and fisheries specifically pertaining
development or utilization of natural to their productivity, biodiversity, integrity,
resources. sustainability and equitability of access and use.
• Lands General Circular No. 51 - The program includes activities related to the
Additional conditions for lease contracts protection, conservation and rejuvenation of the
involving foreshore areas. population of endangered species, and research
• Lands General Circular No. 58 - Directing activities to mediate, ameliorate or mitigate threats
district land officers to collect occupation to coastal resource systems.
65
The following summarizes the 160 km long coastline of the Lingayen Gulf as a
contents of the Coastal Environmental Program’s pilot testing area of resource management
Master Plan: initiatives that can be adopted by other coastal
places in the country. Lingayen Gulf is the major
1. Fundamental principles for marine and coastal fishing ground of Northwestern Luzon. The
resources and environment management. majority of the populace depend on coastal
resources for food, income and employment. The
a) Healthy environment; capture fisheries, aquaculture and tourism sectors
b) Equity and social justice; of the gulf are important to the region’s economy.
c) Sustainable development;
d) Community-based Resource Management; The management plan is an attempt to lay
e) Integrated coastal zone management. the foundation for sustainable development of the
Lingayen Gulf coastal area. It contains a brief
2. Specific Policies on: review of the more important resource
management issues, programs and projects to
a) Environment assess these issues, and institutional arrangements
b) Public Participation for plan implementation. These have been grouped
c) Development projects/Activities into eight essential programs whose adoption is
d) Pollution critical to the survival of the gulf. These programs
e) Resource Use and tenure are:
3. Support Policies on: Fisheries Management
• Capability building • Organizing municipal fishermen towards
• Research Monitoring and Evaluation establishing common property
• Coordination management
• Legislation • Creating a monitoring system for fisheries
management.
4. Management Options in Different Bio- • Upgrading expertise in fisheries
geographic Sectors of the Philippines. management.
At present, the government is imple-
Environmental Quality management
menting the Fisheries Sector Program (FSP) that
seeks to put into place the coastal resource
• Development of institutional capabilities
management schemes in twelve priority bays.
for monitoring water quality.
Mangrove reforestation is also part of this program
• Information, education and commu-
and is being undertaken through contracts with
nication campaign against water pollution
private corporations. The Coastal Environmental
• Establishment of pilot waste disposal
Program seeks to develop coastal communities as
systems for urban and urbanizing centers.
resource and environmental managers. The task
of mangrove reforestation was transferred to them.
Coastal Zonation
The Lingayen Gulf Coastal Area
Management Plan/Program(s) • Coastal information system for coastal area
management and planning.
The Coastal Resources Management • Codification of environmental laws and
Project (CRMP) was started in 1986, using the regulations for coastal area management.
66
• Rehabilitation of linked habitats setbacks, landscaping and protection of trees, solid
*Rehabilitation of Upper Agno River wastes disposal, sewage treatment, water supply,
system watershed drainage and marine habitat protection among
• Alternative livelihood for fishing families others.
*Maguey production
*Peanut production Adaptation Measures for Coastal
*Saltmaking Resources
*Environmentally sound aquarium fishing
• Rehabilitation and enhancement of critical The following are the proposed policy
habitats measures for adaptation to climate change of the
*Rehabilitation of mangroves coastal resources sector.
*Establishment of the Santiago island • Assessment of current practices on crisis
community-based marine reserve management (floods, droughts, storms).
• Aquaculture development • Information dissemination/education
*Feasibility study for a saltwater canal campaign on climate variability and
system in Binmaley, Pangasinan change and its impacts for decision makers
*Seaweed culture and the public.
*Seafarming in cages • Formulation of guidelines and legislation
*Oyster culture for the implementation of Integrated
• Institutional Development Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) for all
coastal zones of the Philippines,
Department of Tourism (DOT) Master particularly on land-use planning.
Planning Project (1991) • Mangrove resources development should
be institutionalized highlighting the
Under this initiative, a master plan for massive reforestation of degraded
tourism was formulated, incorporating pertinent mangrove systems through a community-
tourism development guidelines for the coastal
based approach.
zones. Specifically, these guidelines include
• Public easements and buffer strips should
measures for site planning such as siting, grading
be treated as separate lots during land
and clearing, beach improvements, buffer zones,
surveys; i.e., exclusion from tilling or
private ownership.
• LGUs should be required to
reserve foreshore areas which are
critical areas for recreation/tourism
purposes and other public use and be
excluded from disposition.
• Inclusion of wetlands, swamps,
marshes in the NIPAS under a
category of wildlife sanctuary or
unique ecosystem.
• A multi-hazard mitigation and
protection plan for natural coastal
areas must be developed with priority
on the maximum reduction in threat
Presently, coastal management measures do not directly address the
impacts of climate change. to life, structures and economic
67
production. To address the problems of the sector, the

• Formulation and strict implementation of government has initiated several measures which
mining laws, reforestation of denuded include: the establishment of management
watersheds to reduce river/coastal erosion. committees in water crisis, droughts, and water
• Requirement of geological, hydro- supply; reforms in the water supply sector; and
meteorological and structural engineering studies on the privatization of the MWSS and
evaluation as part of the environmental some water districts. Other studies have been done
impact assessment prior to coastal on the institutional aspects of water resources
development. development and management over the past 20
• Limitation of government subsidies or years along with the proposed institutional
tax incentives to develop land sensitive reforms; the environmental sustainability of water
to sea-level rise, such as barrier islands, resources development; and the financial
coastal wetlands, estuarine shorelines sustainability of water development projects. A
and critical wildlife habitats. situational study on water resources, supply and
development identified certain issues and concerns
Under the Philippine Country Study, the involving the present status of the country’s water
identified adaptive measures for coastal resources resources.
to ASLR are as follows:
Other government policies include the
• Selective protection after thorough cost- Philippine Water Code of 1976 which provides
benefit studies. the legislative basis for the management of the
• Long-term planning in the perspective of country’s water resources; the National Economic
coastal zone management to include and Development Authority (NEDA) Board
proper resources exploitation and usage. Resolution No. 4 of March 1994 which strengthens
• Disaster mitigation and preparedness tie-
up with climate change issues.
• Passage/implementation of policies and
regulations on habitation and construction.
• Inclusion of measures to address climate
change in the ICZM program.
• Information and education campaign to
include government and the general public.
Water Resources
Thirty two (32) agencies under 12

Departments of the government are involved, in
one way or another, in the management of the
country’s water resources. The lead agency
designated as coordinating body of all the activities
in the sector is the National Water Resources Board
(NWRB).
68
the NWRB staff; Executive Order No. 222 of 1995 “...urgent need to properly manage the nation’s
which establishes the Committee on Water water in a sustainable manner, and ...the need for
Conservation and Demand Management; the an integration and coordination of all water related
Water Crisis Act which empowers the President efforts towards a more focused approach to water
to implement measures to address a water resources management.”
emergency; Executive Order No. 374 of 1996
which created the Presidential Task Force on Water As a result of the Summit, the President
Resource Development and Management; and the emphasized the nationwide concern for the water
recent privatization of the MWSS. sector by involving his Cabinet. Cluster G (a
Cabinet working group of department
The Philippine Water Code of 1976 functionaries in charge of specific issues and
(PD2067) provides the legislative basis for the concerns) was reconstituted into a Water
management of the country’s water resources. The Management Cluster. This Cluster now serves as
current water resources management framework the advisory committee to the President and the
consists of the following elements: Cabinet on all matters relating to the water
resources sector.
• A basic law (Water Code)
The National Economic Development
• A planning and coordination mechanism
Authority (NEDA) Board Resolution No. 4 in
• Assessment and basin framework plans
March 1994, strengthened the staff of the NWRB,
• A water use/waterworks regulatory system
the key regulatory and coordinating agency, in
• A water management agency - the NWRB order to effectively cope with the planning,
that administers the Code monitoring and implementation activities of the
water resources sector.
The Water Crisis Management Committee
was formed in 1987 to basically address the Executive Order No. 222 of 1995
problem of allocating water from the Angat established the Committee on Water Conservation
reservoir for water supply, irrigation and and Demand Management.
hydropower during periods of drought. Members
of the committee include the MWSS Regulatory Pursuant to the National Water Summit of
Office (formerly Metropolitan Waterworks and 1994, Congress enacted in 1995, Republic Act No.
Sewerage System), the National Power 8041 otherwise known as the “National Water
Corporation (NPC), the National Irrigation Crisis Act of 1995”. The law was meant to address
Administration (NIA), the Local Waterworks and the problems and ill effects spawned by the water
Sewerage System (LWUA), the National Water crisis then prevailing.
Resources Board (NWRB), the Bureau of Soils
and Water Management (BSWM), the Department The Water Crisis Act of 1995 provides,
of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and the among others, the following:
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and a) Emergency powers for the President to
Astronomical Services Administration restructure government agencies charged
(PAGASA). with the provision of water supply and
sanitation services;
The government’s desire to resolve the b) Powers for the President to enter into
water crisis at the soonest possible time gave rise negotiated contracts for the financing,
to the National Water Summit of 1994. At the end construction, repair and rehabilitation of
of its deliberations, the Summit pointed to the water facilities;
69
c) Creation of the Joint Executive-Legislative c. the watershed shall be managed to achieve

Water Crisis Commission (JELWCC) and maintain a sound level of
chaired by the Executive Secretary, which environmental quality; and
is tasked to conduct a detailed study and d. the natural resources of the Philippines,
review of the country’s entire water supply including watershed resources shall be
and distribution structure. managed with the participation of local
populations and communities.
Executive Order No. 374, issued in 1996
created the Presidential Task Force on Water The Master Plan for Forestry Development
Resources Development and Management. The (MPFD) provides for the integrated and holistic
task force is composed of the Secretary of the management of the country’s watersheds and
Department of Environment and Natural proposes a set of strategies essential to the
Resources as Chairman and the National Water management of the denuded watershed(s), law
Resources Board’s Chairman as the Vice enforcement, resettlement, improved incentive(s),
Chairman. The task force will serve as an oversight improvement of the monitoring of land uses and
an integrated protection program. The MPFD was
body to ensure the efficient sourcing and use of
also instrumental in the DENR policy shifts of
water resources, in particular, the provision of
logging from the virgin forests to the residual
policy and program recommendations on water
forests, and the imposition of the logging ban in
supply planning and coordination; prioritization
critical areas.
of programs and projects critical for ensuring
sustainable, adequate, safe and affordable water The National Integrated Protected Areas
supply; coordination and monitoring of water System (NIPAS) Act or Republic Act No. 7586
policies and programs; and pricing policies on
water resources.
Watershed Management
The most important policy on watershed

management in the Philippines is Presidential
Decree 705, as amended, otherwise known as the
“Revised Forestry Code of the Philippines”. PD
705 embodies the general mandate of the
Philippine Constitution to conserve and utilize
properly the country’s natural resources. The major
policies enunciated in the said Decree, as applied
to the watersheds are as follows:
a. all watersheds in the country shall be under

the ownership and jurisdiction of the
Philippine Government;
b. the watersheds shall be managed under the
concept of multiple-use and sustained Watershed protection is a major measure to enable
yield; the country to respond to the impacts of climate
change.
70
states that “it is the policy of the State to serve the integrated sustainable development and
Filipino people of the present and future management of water resources.
generations.” It also provides for the perpetual
existence of all native plants and animals through
the establishment of a comprehensive system of Adaptation Measures
integrated protected areas.
By virtue of a Presidential instruction, the Many water resource adaptation measures

DENR is to facilitate the creation of a Watershed are potentially available to the country to enable
Management Council in a watershed prior to its it to respond to climate change impacts on water
proclamation as a watershed reservation. The supply and demand. However, many factors will
Council comprises of representatives from constrain it from adopting most of them. These
different concerned government agencies (i.e., include financial and socio-cultural factors. The
National Irrigation Administration, Local latter involves social and cultural behavior or
Government Units, Local Water Districts, traditions that may inhibit adoption of some
Department of Agriculture, etc.) including non- measures. In the preparation of the National Action
government organizations and the private sector. Plan on Climate Change, a screening process
involving a set of criteria was used to draw up an
Under the Environmental Impact initial set of adaptation measures for the sector.
Statement System (PD 1586) and specifically The criteria are as follows:
Proclamation No. 2146 which defines the
coverage of the system, watershed reservations are • The adaptation measure should address
designated as Environmentally Critical Areas high priority issues which involve
(ECAs). All activities/projects within these areas irreversible or catastrophic consequences
are subject to the requirements of the System, of climate change, long term decisions and
particularly obtaining the Environmental unfavorable trends.
Compliance Certificate (ECC). • The adaptation measure is likely to be
effective.
• The measure should be inexpensive to
National and Regional Water implement.
Master Plans • The measure should be feasible and must
not have significant barriers to overcome
such as institutional/legal, social and
Basin and regional framework plans for the cultural, market and technological.
twelve water resources regions have been prepared
by the National Water Resources Board in the One of the major impacts of climate
middle seventies containing an inventory of change is the change in the temporal and spatial
existing resources, facilities, management distribution of precipitation and temperature. The
framework and indications of the country’s needs resulting runoff or hydrological resource may be
up to 2000. The objective of this exercise is to shifted in time and space. A change in the
provide agencies in the water resources sector an distribution with respect to time and space of
overview of the basin issues and problems outside runoff could greatly affect the effectiveness of
their sector, as well as, identifying opportunities existing system(s). Adaptation measures in the
for joint projects. It was, however, realized that water resources sector, in this context, could be
these framework plans are not adequate for the divided into two major classes:
71
· Supply Adaptation to cope with the expected climate change in the

short and long terms.
- construction of new infrastructures;
- modification of existing physical After a series of workshops, fora and round
infrastructure(s); and table discussions among concerned government
- alternative management of the existing agencies, private institutions, members of the
water supply systems. academe, non-government organizations,
members of the media and other stakeholders, a
· Demand Adaptation number of relevant issues and concerns relating
to water resources were identified. Possible
- conservation and improved efficiency; and adaptation measures were also identified and
- technological change. evaluated based on criteria previously discussed.
Table 3.10 provides a summary of the adaptation
The vulnerability analysis undertaken on measures for both demand and supply.
two of the country’s reservoirs, Angat and Lake
Lanao showed that they would be highly
susceptible to climate change. Due to sensitivity Supply Adaptation
to rainfall changes, runoff for both areas could be
dramatically altered with changes in rainfall, both
in time and space. The climate change scenario a. Comprehensive Watershed
from the CCCM shows an increase in temperature Management
for all water resources regions of the country and
large variations in rainfall. It would, therefore, be One major concern with respect to the
prudent to identify possible adaptation measures, water resources sector is the considerable decline
Table 3.10 Summary of Identified Adaptation Measures for Angat Dam and Lake Lanao
Adaptation Measures High Priority Effectiveness Low Costs Low Barriers
Supply Adaptation:
Alternative management of existing water P P X X

supply system(s)
Plan and coordinate use of water basin/ P P P P

groundwater source
Improve monitoring and forcasting systems P P P P

for flood and drought and water quality
Demand Adaptation:
Treated and untreated water supply/pricing P P X P
Water treatment and recycling for major

water users P P X P
Introduce low water use crops and farming P P P P

practices
72
of watersheds. Excessive logging and shifting for other purposes. The problem in the irrigation
cultivation in the watersheds triggered widespread subsector is low water use efficiency due to
degradation and consequent erosion and siltation technical and institutional deficiencies, i.e.,
of rivers, lakes and reservoirs (Santos, 1997). The flooding in the wet season and inadequate water
Angat and Lake Lanao watershed areas face this availability during the dry season. The dilapidated
kind of problem in the future. state of canal structures in the irrigation systems
and the low water use efficiencies result in water
The watershed management programs of loss. Some of the possible responses to enhance
the government aimed at rehabilitating watershed irrigation efficiency in the NIA systems are:
areas are key steps in preventing degradation of changing the cropping schedule to reduce the
the country’s existing watershed areas. Strict demand for irrigation at the end of the dry season;
implementation of existing forestry rules and use of canal lining to reduce water losses;
regulations should also be undertaken by both maximizing the use of available water through the
concerned government and private entities. construction of reservoir-type projects and
redesign of irrigation facilities to reuse return
b. Water Allocation System and flows.
Procedures
b. Introduction of low water use crops
Water allocation is a powerful tool for and efficient farming practices
managing the demand for water. In the Angat
reservoir, irrigation and hydropower are prioritized Majority of the farm areas that rely on the
over domestic water supply. However, in times of reservoirs like Angat for irrigation are planted to
drought or emergency, domestic water supply gets rice. And, since the crop needs substantial amounts
priority over all the others within the limits of the of water from land preparation to its reproductive
users’ water rights as determined by the NWRB. stage, most of the water from reservoirs,
Conflicts arise when the MWSS withdraws water particularly of Angat, is used by the agricultural
from the reservoir over and above its existing water sector. During times of drought, the supply of
rights, in the process, expropriating a portion of water from the Angat reservoir has not been
NIA’s (in charge of irrigation) water rights. Several sufficient to irrigate a substantial portion of the
studies are now being conducted that would concerned farmlands. The need to look for
provide recommendations on water reallocation alternative crops that use less water would then
and compensation schemes to meet the demand be imperative. With the necessary support and
of the sectors drawing from the Angat reservoir, assistance from the Department of Agriculture,
particularly in the event of drought/floods in the introduction of such crops can be started.
future.
Use of drip irrigation, mulching, improved
irrigation practices and the use of windbreaks to
Demand Adaptation reduce windspeed and evapotranspiration are some
farming practices that could be adopted (Baradas,
1996).
a. Enhancement of irrigation efficiency
c. Recycling (Reuse) of water
As the greatest consumer of water, the
agricultural sector needs to increase its efficiency Due to the recurrent shortages of water,
in water use such that water saved could be used the policy of the government is to encourage reuse
73
of effluent in agriculture and industry. Industries of the drought/flood monitoring and forecasting
are encouraged to save water and adopt measures capability of the concerned entities. It has been
to reuse their effluents for other secondary shown that droughts and floods have tremendous
purposes. In the case of irrigation systems, effects on water resources, and climate change is
drainage water reuse is another possibility for likely to affect the frequency of droughts and
extending the supply of water. Installation of floods. Improvement of the present system of
drainage reuse systems are now being undertaken knowing in advance future occurrences of such
by the NIA and the farmers to supply water to areas events could be translated to improved water
which cannot be reached through the normal management. Monitoring systems will help in
irrigation channels. coping with these changes and would still be
beneficial even without climate change.
Water used for power generation, as in
multipurpose dams like the Angat Reservoir and e. Use of water pricing policies and structures
Lanao Lake, is rechanneled for domestic use and
irrigation. Households, during serious water Water has traditionally been treated as a
shortages, are likewise encouraged to reuse public good and the government is expected to
laundry water for flushing and cleaning toilets and bear the cost of making this commodity accessible
driveways. to the population. With the
growing scarcity of water,
especially in Metro Manila,
and the constraints on
financial resources, there is
now an increasing tendency
to shift to a commodity
focus wherein users bear the
full cost of being supplied
with water.
f. Promoting
awareness of
climate variability
and change
The public and some

Lanao Lake, used for power generation, is rechanneled for domestic use and decision makers frequently
irrigation. do not understand climatic
variability and the potential
risks of climate change. Because climatic
d. Improvement of monitoring and adaptation will affect the individual,
forecasting systems for floods and organizational, and policy levels, awareness on the
droughts impact of climate variability on every member of
the community is important. Increasing sensitivity
One adaptation measure that would entail to climate issues will facilitate adoption of
lesser cost and encounter less constraints relative measures to prepare for climate variability and
to other adaptation measures is the improvement change.
74
b.) Affordable and reasonable prices which
Mitigation Strategies means ensuring energy supply at lowest
cost; and
Under the UNFCCC, the developed c.) Socially and environmentally compatible
country Parties have the primary responsibility to energy infrastructures and projects, which
adopt policies and measures to limit their is the provision of cleaner energy, taking
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and into consideration benefits for the host
to report these to the Conference of the Parties for communities.
its review. Developing country Parties have no
such obligation to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. New and Renewable Energy
However, the adoption of GHG abatement

measures, particularly renewable energy Under the Plan, new and renewable energy
production systems which likewise avoid sources are envisioned to contribute significantly
generation of other pollutant emissions like sulfur to the country’s electricity requirements. Total
dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrous oxides (NOx), installed capacity from NRE over the next ten (10)
contribute to the country’s pursuit of sustainable years is projected to be around 410 MW.
development objectives. Hence, it is to the interest
of the Philippines and its people, that these Biomass fuel supply potential which is
measures are undertaken. These measures are currently estimated to be 247.9 MMBFOE, is
reflected in the various sectoral plans, particularly expected to grow annually by 2.2%, reaching 301.5
those of the Energy, Transport and Agriculture MMBFOE by 2008.
sectors.
Of this total, municipal wastes will
They have likewise fed into the assessment contribute 133.1 MMBFOE, wood/wood wastes,
processes in initiatives like the Asia Least Cost 97.7 MMBFOE, coconut residues, 26.2
Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) MMBFOE, bagasse, 21.6 MMBFOE, animal
and the National Action Plan (NAP) on Climate wastes, 13.4 MMBFOE and rice residues, 9.6
Change. The ALGAS drew up the least cost MMBFOE.
mitigation options for the Philippines while the
NAP identified the gaps and recommended For the period 1999-2008, solar PV
strategic thrusts.
systems, totaling about 19 MW, are likewise
projected to be installed. Wind, meanwhile, is
As Contained in the Philippine Energy Plan
expected to contribute a maximum of about 145
MW to the grid by 2008. Off-grid wind turbine
Some of the Philippines’ policies and
generators are projected to contribute 36.9 MW
strategies on the abatement of its greenhouse gas
emissions, in the context of the above, are while micro-hydro installations, 8.52 MW at the
contained in the most recent update of the end of the period. Ocean energy is hoped to
Philippine Energy Plan (PEP), 1999 – 2008. The contribute around 30 MW to the grid also at this
plan’s objectives are laid down as: time.
a.) Security of energy supply, which aims to The incremental contribution of the NRE
avoid energy supply disruptions; sector is expected to be brought about by the
75
Overall, the capital investments for the

promotion, development and commercialization
of new and renewable energy is estimated to cost
PHP49.3 billion. Of this, 88.6% is expected to be
put up by the private sector while the government
will provide the remaining 11.4%.
Energy Efficiency and Demand-Side

Management
Twelve (12) energy efficiency programs

will be pursued for the period 1999-2008. These
programs are projected to achieve around 70,600
MBFOE of energy savings by 2008, translating to
around US$1,129.2 M in foreign exchange savings
and an average reduction in electricity demand of
491 MW.
These programs focus on energy

management trainings, energy efficiency
PAGASA’s windmill in Tagaytay City. information campaigns, development of linkages
among energy research and development entities,
energy efficiency measures for industrial
passage of policies and legislation like the Non- equipment and facilities and household appliances.
Conventional Energy Bill, which will try to address Some of these programs likewise focus on
some of the barriers in the promotion and demand-side management of power generation
implementation of NRE measures and projects. and distribution utilities.
The program(s) targeted at the industrial

The Department of Energy will continue
sector are expected to generate about 28,400
to promote the commercialization of renewable
MBFOE energy savings by 2008 (equivalent to
energy technologies through such initiatives as the
40.2% of the total savings). Transport sector
Decentralized Energy System (DES) which has programs will result in 16,300 MBFOE savings
established lending mechanisms to support the or 23% of the total, while those for the residential
establishment of NRE networks like the Philippine and commercial sectors will account for 15.5 and
Solar Energy Society (PSES), Biomass Energy 3.6%, respectively.
Association of the Philippines (BEAP) and the
Wind Energy Association of the Philippines Specifically, some of these programs are
(WEAP). Also, it will continue to provide as follows:
technical support to the rural NRE clientele
through the Affiliated Non-Conventional Energy 1. Energy Efficiency Information
Centers (ANECs). There are currently 20 ANECs Campaign
in all the regions. In some regions, they are present
at the provincial level.
76
The Department of Energy, in 4. Vehicle Efficiency Standards and
cooperation with the concerned sectors, Testing Program
has launched the Power Patrol and Road
Transport Patrol Programs. These The program aims to establish fuel
programs promote efficiency in electricity economy standards and passenger car
and gasoline fuel use in the industrial, labelling which are envisioned to achieve
commercial, residential and transport 830 MBFOE energy savings by 2008.
sectors. The Transport Patrol Program , Activities of the program include testing
particularly, involves a tri-media campaign and certification.
for drivers, operators, vehicle and fleet
owners, among others, on fuel 5. Systems Loss Reduction Program
conservation. Energy savings is estimated for Utilities (SLRP)
to be 23,800 MBFOE at the end of the plan
period. The SLRP, which is an on-going
program, is expected to continue through
2. Energy Audit 2008, resulting in 870 MBFOE savings.
Systems loss reduction of private utilities
To determine energy use patterns and rural electric cooperatives will be
and energy efficiency opportunities, the
effected through various measures.
Department of Energy provides advisory
services, particularly on energy audits, for
6. Heat Rate Improvement of Power
industries and other establishments.
Through the energy service companies, an Plants (HRIP)
average of 50 establishments are targetted
for audit annually. Potential savings from The HRIP is an on-going
this exercise is estimated at 24,000 undertaking aimed at enhancing the
MBFOE by 2008. operational efficiency of around 380 power
plants over the planning period. This is
3. Energy Labeling and Efficiency projected to result in accumulated energy
Standards savings of 4,100 MBFOE.
Through the Bureau of Product 7. Demand-Side Management

Standards (BPS) and the Association of (DSM) Program
Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM),
energy efficiency standards for room The DSM Program aims to
airconditioners, refrigerators, freezers and influence end use electricity consumption
lamp ballasts will be imposed. Around through the various activities of the electric
7,800 MBFOE is expected to be saved by utilities. Cumulative energy savings by
the end of the planning period. To improve 2008 is projected to be 5,900 MBFOE
performance of industrial fans and from this program.
blowers, a National Fans and Blower
Certification Program will be developed. 8. Financing Energy Conservation
The Program is expected to result in Projects
approximately 270 MBFOE energy
savings. For this initiative, the government,
through the DOE and with USAID
77
assistance, established the Technology was developed through the Philippine Transport
Transfer for Energy Management Strategy Study, funded by the Asian Development
Demonstration Loan Fund (TTEM-DLF). Bank.
For the planning period, the fund is
projected to provide funding for around At the core of this agenda is the
134 projects representing about 1,070 revitalization of the transport sector so that it could
MBFOE of energy savings. operate transport services. The Agenda primarily
focuses on the road system because it serves a
majority of passengers and freight transport in the
Development and Use of Other country. Under the scheme, the national road
Climate Friendly/Cleaner Fuels network is to be maintained and developed. The
Philippine Road Classification Study (PRCS)
under the ADB 6th Road Improvement Project has
The Philippines is intent on developing made recommendations, which, if implemented,
cleaner indigenous energy sources like natural gas, would improve the national network.
hydro and geothermal. By 2008, the Philippine
domestic gas production is expected to reach 146 The elements of the Road Transport
BCF. This is projected to be utilized for power Strategy/Agenda are as follows:
plants like the Iligan and Sta. Rita, which will have
a total installed capacity of 2,220 MW. From an a.) Maintenance;
almost nil percentage share in the total energy mix, b.) Rehabilitation, which would involve
natural gas is projected to comprise 6.9% of the reconstruction of the road structure;
total which is 416.5 MMBFOE. c.) Improvement, which would include
upgrading pavement design and bridges for
Total installed hydro capacity is expected heavier traffic, road widening or
to double from 2,304 MW in 1998 to 4,025 MW realignment and junction improvements;
in 2008. Hydro’s share in the total energy mix will d.) Development of penetrator roads, which
increase slightly from 3.7% in 1999 to 4% in 2008. are new roads meant to stimulate
Hydro projects in the pipeline and those being
development; and
contemplated are a mix of 8 large, 2 small and 14
e.) Missing Links which are essentially new
minihydro projects over the ten-year planning
roads, especially port and airport access
period.
roads.
Approximately 558 MW is projected to be
contributed by geothermal power to the capacity Rail is also considered essential to the
mix for the period under consideration. Total country’s transport system. In fact, it is envisioned
cumulative installed generating capacity by 2008 to be its backbone. Within 100 kilometers of Metro
is estimated at 2,450 MW. The country’s total Manila, particularly, rail has a strategic long term
resource potential was estimated at 5,000 MW in role because of the congested road networks.
1995. However, it must overcome a lot of hurdles, mainly
institutional. Among the other issues to be
examined are:
The Transport Agenda
a.) future availability of rail route(s) through
Metro Manila;
The Transport Agenda under the 1999- b.) possibility of running a cross city express
2004 Medium Term Philippine Development Plan service; and
78
c.) adoption of common technical standards and resources. Programs to be implemented under
to ensure contained operation of the the Plan are:
railway as a system. a. Program on Man and the Environment;
b. Program on Forests and Forest Products
Multi-modal transport is considered Development; and
appropriate to the country’s topography. The c. Program on Institutional Development.
Agenda, therefore, targets the development of
“multi-modal corridors and establishment of GHG mitigation measures are contained
multi-modal chains.” in the following sub-programs:
1. Soil and Watershed Conservation

The Medium Term Agricultural 2. People-Oriented Forestry
Development Plan (MTADP), 3. Forest Protection
1993-1998 4. Forest Plantation Establishment
The ALGAS Proposed Mitigation

The MTADP utilized the Key Production
Initiatives
Area (KPA) approach for this plan period. Under
this scheme, government support was focused on
areas where land and water resources could be put
The Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas
to best use. Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) is the analysis of
the mitigation options of 12 Asian countries,
Under the Plan, the main mitigation
including the Philippines, under the guidance of
measures include:
the Asian Development Bank, with funding from
a. The Balanced Fertilization Program, which
the Global Environment Facility (GEF), through
provides location specific recommend-
the United Nations Development Programme
ation for organic and inorganic fertilizers
(UNDP).
aimed at sustaining high crop yields over
long cropping seasons without depleting
Based on the greenhouse gas emissions
the natural resource base. It also provides
inventory of 1990 and projections of GHGs to
guidelines for strategic distribution of
appropriate fertilizers. 2020, mitigation measures were drawn up for three
b. Reduction of programmed area for sectors: energy, forestry and agriculture. The
irrigated rice fields; projected emissions for these sectors were
c. Judicious use of pesticides through generated utilizing a number of tools. For the
Integrated Pest Management; and Energy Sector, the baseline scenario was
d.) Utilization of low-water use crops. developed using the Market Allocation
(MARKAL) model. For the Forestry and
Agriculture sectors, the Business-as-usual
The Master Plan for Forestry Scenarios utilized inputs from the sectoral master
Development (MPFD), 1990 development plans but not based on any specific
GHG abatement objectives.
The MPFD serves as the government’s Baseline and mitigation scenarios were
blueprint for managing the country’s forest lands projected to the year 2020. Mitigation scenarios
for the Energy Sector were generated for both the
79
Table 3.11 Summary of National Least-Cost Abatement Strategy Initiatives

Potential GHG
Implementation GHG Abatement Emissions Cost of
Time Frame Initiative Reduction (MT of Initiative (US$/
CO2 Equiv.) ton of CO2)
Energy Supply Side
Short to Medium Term System Loss Reduction 69.7 (-) 17.20
Short to Medium Term Heat Rate Improvement 157.7 (-) 5.10
Short to Long Term New & Renewable Energy
Wind 7.3 (-) 1.64
Solar 3.7 1.36
Biomass 3.7 0.27
Natural Gas 55.0 2.40
Energy Demand Side
Short Term Use of CFL 33.0 (-) 26.30
Short to Medium Term Hi-eff Air Con System 44.0 (-) 6.10
Short to Medium Term Hi-eff Refrigerators 11.0 (-) 5.40
Short to Medium Term Hi-eff Industrial Motors 7.3 (-) 13.70
Short to Medium Term Hi-Eff Boilers 11.0 (-) 26.00
Transport
Medium to Long Term Hi-Eff Transport System 40.3 (-) 2.90
Table 3.12 Methane Mitigation Options in Rice Production

Methane Emissions %
Mitigation Options Feature of Reduction Potential Change Feasible
Alternate Practice (kg GHG/ha/season) In Yield Target Area
A. Fertilizer Management
Use of ammonium Easy to apply 105.5 6.5 Farmers using urea
sulfate instead of urea
Commercially
available
Use of phosphogypsum Easy to apply 217 8.6 Areas where gypsum

in combination with is abundant and
urea instead of urea Low cost available
alone
Use of composted rice Indigenous material 421 1.3 Areas where burning
straw instead of fresh of rice straw is not
rice straw (both in possible
combination with urea) Farm mechanization
made easy
B. Water Management
Field drying at mid Allows soil aeration 180 4.8 Areas with good
tillering and at two weeks which is beneficial to irrigation and drainage
before harvest as against plants system that will allow
continuous flooding field drying
Controls pests like
"golden snail"
Ease of harvesting
C. Cultivar
Use of improved varieties Low methane 58.2 0 All irrigated areas
instead of IR72 emitting variety
80
Supply and Demand sides. Using the MARKAL - Least cost planning and full cost
model, twelve least cost options were generated. accounting
These are contained in Table 3.11. Factors utilized - Research and technology cost trends
include availability of resources, market of renewables (solar, wind, biomass,
penetration and readiness of technology. hydro)
In the agriculture sector, use of low B. Revise efficiency targets

methane (CH4) emitting rice cultivators had the - Supply-side efficiency improvements;
highest abatement potential, while use of sulfate power plants efficiency improvement;
fertilizers had the lowest. Mitigation options transmission loss reduction; replace-
considered for rice cultivation are given in Table ment of coal plants with natural gas
3.12. combined cycle plants
- Demand side efficiency improve-
The Forestry and Land Use Sector ments; energy conservation, use of
Mitigation Assessment under ALGAS generated energy efficient technologies
- Energy-efficient designs for new build-
a number of options such as forests plantation,
ings
urban forestry and sustainable forest management,
among others.
2. Transportation
A. Traffic improvement scheme

GHG Mitigation in the Context of the
National Action Plan (NAP) on
- Development and use of efficient mass
Climate Change
transport systems
- Use/promotion of non-motorized
transport modes
It must be stressed that the NAP is a
- Emission control schemes focusing on
framework plan which aims to identify the general
improved fuel and vehicle efficiency
thrusts to be focused on by the stakeholders,
- Parking facilities development by
particularly the government, to address the issue
public and private sector
of climate change. The prescribed mitigation
- Improvement of road markings and
measures are, therefore, largely directional, meant
signages, as well as, intersection
to provide guidance to sectoral agencies like the
control
Departments of Energy, Agriculture and Trade and
B. Travel demand management
Industry, among others.
- Traffic volume reduction measure such
For the energy, transport and industry
as the Unified Vehicular Volume
sectors, the following actions are proposed under
Reduction Program (UVVRP)
the NAP:
- Road pricing or area licensing scheme
for urban railway corridors (i.e. MRT
1. Energy and Transformation
and LRT)
- Staggered commuting scheme
A. Shift the energy mix towards renewable
- Fuel and vehicle tax policy
energy
- Land use control and growth
- Building of commercial proto-types to
management
accumulate operating data
81
3. Industry protection/enhancement of the country’s forest

resources are expected to shape and guide the
- Implementation of energy efficiency development of these mitigation activities and
measures undertakings. These policies are enshrined in
- Promotion of energy conservation Executive Order (E.O.) No. 462 (on renewables,
- Use of alternative non-CO2 emitting in particular, ocean, solar and wind) Republic Act
industrial processes (RA) 8749 or the Clean Air Act and the various
laws on forest protection, among others.
For the agriculture sector, the NAP
proposes the following:
- Use of tubular polyethylene bio-

digesters and urea-molasses mineral
block as nutrient supplement in animal
production
- Use of sulfate fertilizers to reduce
methane emissions
- Use of rice straw, water management
and low-emitting cultivars
- Upgrading of food storage and
distribution systems
- Promotion and implementation of
judicious land-use planning
Over-all, it can be seen that although the

Philippines does not have any legally binding
commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
it is undertaking a considerable number of
measures to abate the generation of such.
Total and sectoral mitigation potential(s)

have been estimated and specific projects
identified to realize these potential(s). At the
moment, however, further analysis of these
proposed options are being undertaken to ensure
that those to be undertaken, in addition to measures
already being implemented as contemplated under
the various sectoral plans and the MTPDP, are in
consonance with the country’s sustainable
development objectives.
The avowed policies, to promote the

widespread use of renewables, maximization of
energy efficiency opportunities, promotion of
climate-friendly technologies and practices and
82
Chapter IV - Financial, Technological Needs and Constraints
Chapter IV
FINANCIAL, TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS

AND CONSTRAINTS
The Philippines, like other developing countries, is faced with a number of con-
straints in its efforts to continue communicating information under the Climate Change
Convention. These constraints include financial, as well as, technological ones. It is
likewise severely ill-prepared for the onslaught of the impacts of climate change.
Below is a documentation of these contraints, primarily the problem on

sustainability of the inventory process, capacity to undertake vulnerability, adaptation
and mitigation assessments, as well as, capacity to draw up and implement strategies as
a result of these assessments.
Issues And Concerns · Availability, Reliability and Variability of

Activity Data and Emission Factors
1. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory For activity data, problems include

data gaps, prohibiting more accurate com-
Despite the fact that the Philippines has pilation of greenhouse gas emissions.
undertaken two greenhouse gas inventories and Some are highly variable because of con-
in the process, presumably built considerable ca- tinuous updates, compromising their reli-
pacity in preparing its national greenhouse gas inability. In some cases, these data are out-
ventory on a regular basis, it is plagued by a num- right unreliable. More and more, there is a
ber of problems threatening sustainability of the growing consensus that the default factors
exercise. These problems and issues are as fol- utilized for the inventory are not represen-
lows: tative of the country’s actual situation.
83
There is, therefore, a need to generate lo- projects like the ALGAS, additional assessment
cal statistics through researches and field initiatives and subsequent identification of green-
studies to be participated in by concerned house gas abatement projects should be carried
agencies and entities. out. For example, the wastes sector represents
considerable abatement opportunities but its full
· Institutionalization and Linkages potential has not yet been determined.
In some agencies, while data are Moreover, a single mitigation strategy

available, there is a dearth of manpower needs to be agreed upon. To this end, an integra-
to regularly produce the inventory. This is tion should be made of the various GHG abate-
because the inventory is not included in ment efforts being proposed and contemplated
their regular functions and mandates. under the various sectoral plans and the MTPDP,
There is, therefore, a need to institutional- as well as those proposed by such project as AL-
ize the inventory process within the vari-
GAS and the NAP. This should be done in the
ous participating agencies. Specifically, a
statistical framework and database infor- context of the developments in the climate change
mation system for the inventory should be negotiations.
established. A linkage mechanism to en-
able academe to continuously feed into this The capacity of implementing institutions
database information system should like- and entities is another issue which must be ad-
wise be established. Table 4.1 lists in de- dressed. Mechanisms, structures and entities
tail the issues attending the inventory pro- needed to implement the integrated abatement
cess by sector. strategy should either be established or strength-
ened. A policy and institutional framework should
Overall, to lower uncertainties in the in- be drawn up. Training of critical sectors and groups
ventory process, sensitivity analysis should be un- should be undertaken, particularly in the fields of
dertaken, while addressing the above issues of renewable energy and energy efficiency, among
country specific data and emission factors needs. others. Specifically, training in the use of plan-
ning models like the MARKAL is needed.
2. Mitigation Information and data management should

be strengthened and enhanced. To this end, net-
works of information centers should be established
Among the main issues confronting the to facilitate the flow of information from the in-
Philippines involving mitigation of greenhouse formation source(s)/provider(s) to the users.
gases is the affordability of the technologies it
would like to use, e.g. utilization of renewables in
power production. In view of this, interventions 3. Vulnerability and Adaptation
in terms of overcoming market barriers for the
widespread use of renewables need to be under-
taken. Also, more applications need to be imple- The following issues and concerns have
mented to gain field experience and additional been identified in the conduct of vulnerability and
operating data. adaptation assessment under the various studies
made for the three (3) major sectors (agriculture,
While an initial assessment of the country’s water resources and coastal resources) in the coun-
mitigation potential has been undertaken with try:
84
Table 4.1 GHG Inventory Sectoral Issues and Concerns
I. ENERGY
Problems/Issues/Concerns Recommendation(s)
* No country specific data; specifically on * Study local fuel types, particularly composition
local emission factors and develop local emission factors
* Institutionalization of the Overall Energy * OEB adapted in such a way that it will
Balance (OEB) contain all the necessary information
necessary for the computations of GHG
emissions in the energy sector.
* Data needed readily available from the DOE * Link data in the OEB with the GHG
but are highly variable due to continuous emissions calculations to reflect
updates in fuel consumption and allocation instantaneously any changes resulting
from the new set of values.
* Incomplete database on household * Institutionalize/regularize surveys and

consumption of biomass fuels such as studies on household fuel consumption
wood/woodwaste, charcoal, agriwaste and not only biomass fuels, but all other
other biomass/waste. conventional and nonconventional fuel
* Data available is only for the year 1989 types.
and projections made for the years 1995
and 2000 from the study made by the
UNDP-ESMAP. The DOE commenced its
Household Energy Consumption Study
(HECS) only in 1995. Data gathered are not
yet complete to date.
* Major data gaps in the transportation * Institutionalize a complete and

subsector constrains a more accurate GHG emission comprehensive registration process
computation: containing all the necessary and
important information for each registered
* Type and technology of registered vehicles; vehicle in every LTO registration branch
VTEC, fuel injection, etc.
* No. of kilometers travelled per year (annual
mileage)
* Year and make of car.
* Institutionalization * Develop close linkage with the DOE

specifically with the Demand Analysis
and Planning Division (DAPD), main
data center of the department, and the
Environment Division with computes
and projects national CO2 emissions
from the energy sector.
85
II. INDUSTRY
* Availability of data, this being highly * Draw in other data sources like DTI and
dependent on what industrial firms, estates, PEZA which also issue annual permits
or associations choose to provide for
regulatory purposes (especially to the DENR
or EMB or any such regulatory body as well
as any indirectly related purpose)
* Reliability of data * Involve NGOs like the Philippine Business

for the Environment (PBE) which are pro-
active in the environment awareness
circles
* Involve industrial associations, e.g. PISI,
SPIK, PHILCEMCOR, PHINMA, etc. to
increase cooperation within sectors.
* Institutionalize inventory methodologies
within DTI, NSCB, and EMB all of which
already have most of the requisite data
available. Possibly develop local emission
factors for highly emissive sectors like
cement and iron and steel.
III. AGRICULTURE
* Deficiency on country-specific factors and * Generate local statistics by conducting
data. Default factors not representative of researches and surveys to be participated
country's actual situation in by concerned agencies such as BAS,
BAI, IRRI, PhilRice, etc.
* Institutionalization * Establish a statistical framework and a

database information system for the
inventory
Domestic Livestock
* Present data on distribution of animal manure * Ascertain actual distribution of animal
among animal wastes management systems manure among the animal wastes
are estimations only. management systems
Prescribed Burning of Savanna

* Lack of country-specific statistics (biomass * Undertake research studies, with the DA/FMB
density of savanna, fraction of exposed as lead agencies
biomass that is burned, etc.) necessary for
the estimation of emission
Burning of Agricultural Residues * Conduct research/survey on cultural

practices of local farmers to generate data
on crop residue
Agricultural Soils Management

* No country-specific factors
86
IV. WASTES
Solid Wastes
* Need for more comprehensive source(s) of data * Data for other regions (besides the NCR)
should be obtained. Data may be acquired from
the LGUs
* Provisions for categorizing wastes disposal
by economic class, region, etc. to determine
the impact of these specific categories.
Domestic/Commercial Wastewater Treatment

* Need to acquire sludge data. * More comprehensive data on sludge. May be
* Need to acquire new/accurate data regarding quantified by the local sewerage entities like
wastewater treatment plants specially on Maynilad Water Services Inc.
volume of wastewater they could process,
efficiency, number served, etc.-for all regions
* Data on wastewater; no local BOD levels *Scientific and experimental determination
of local BOD levels.
* Untreated wastewter * Study effects of untreated waste water-
on methane generated
Industrial Wastewater
* No readily available data on industrial waste-
water. * Conduct regular survey/study on national
* Data do not cover the entire nation wastewater treatment systems. (DENR/
* Data in BOD and not COD DTI)
* Scientific study for COD levels in wastewater
treatment systems
V. LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY

* Significant variability among existing data * Conduct more field studies
* Validate default data
* Deficiency in country specific data (data gaps) * Conduct actual field studies
* Validate default data
* Unrealiable data on forest area * Determine actual forest area by reliable

party using precise methods - key
government institution, FMB
* Need to enhance capability of some government

agencies involved in collecting relevant forest
data.
* Need to establish systematic schemes for

collecting data
* Limited resources available on carbon * Institutionalize collection of data on

sequestration studies carbon sequestration
* Formulate strategies to generate more
resources for carbon sequestration studies
* Data on Soil Carbon
87
On the use of simulation models (GCMs) would increase the adoption of modern technolo-
in predicting various climate change scenarios, a gies.
number of uncertainties associated with their use
have been cited which must be dealt with, such Considering that the national studies (e.g.
as: The Philippine Country Study) have been mainly
focused on vulnerability and adaptation (V & A)
· The models have weaknesses in coupling assessment of rice and corn production to projected
the land surface and atmospheric hydro- impacts of climate change, a number of gaps need
logical cycles simulations of regional cli- to be addressed. These are:
mate and extremes, particularly with re-
gard to precipitation; · V & A of production of other important
crops (i.e. sugar cane, coconut, cash crops,
· The spatial resolution of current GCMs etc.) and of livestock;
is too coarse to capture local changes in
precipitation and temperature; · assessment of the changes in geographi-
cal and seasonal distribution of thermal
· There are uncertainties in the projected cli- and water resources important to crop and
mate scenarios in terms of changes in tem- livestock production;
peratures, rainfall amounts, solar radiation,
etc. The GCMs used are run at fairly coarse · assessment of reduction in GHG emissions
resolution (grid points are at 5° longitude with the implementation of the Balanced
by 5° latitude or roughly 555 kms by 555 Fertilization Program;
kms.), so that discrepancies exist between
simulations and observed climate because · assessment of reduction in GHG emission
even variability in the climate are also, as from different mixes of adaptation strate-
yet, not well simulated. There is much gies;
more natural variation in local climate than
in climate averaged over larger scales. · development of management methods
from adaptation of agriculture systems to
· For the vulnerability and adaptation assess- the predicted increased CO2 concentrations
ments done under the Philippine Country and associated climate change;
Study, only the GCM equilibrium (2 x
CO2) temperature, rainfall and radiation are · assessment of impacts of intensive farm-
used as inputs. Effects of extreme climatic ing systems, especially because rice pro-
events including that of strong winds due duction needs to meet demands of increas-
to tropical cyclones were not considered ing population; and,
in the scenarios.
· assessment of long-term effects of climate
Agriculture change on soil fertility and effectiveness
of fertilizers and chemicals.
Currently, a number of policies and mea-
sures are critically needed in order to develop the Water Resources
country’s capability to address climate change is-
sues. Foremost are a national land use policy, to The assessment of the effects of climate
generate more support for farmers and those that change on the country’s water resources has been
88
limited to surface water. One of the constraints is quality of surface and ground water.
the lack of direct studies on the effect of global · impacts of climate change on underground
warming on groundwater recharge. water resources.
Another limitation is that only changes in · development of proper methodologies for

rainfall and temperature were considered in stud- long-term data projection.
ies on future water supply and demand. There are
other climatic variables that could influence wa- A sustainable water resources management
ter supply and demand such as relative humidity, plan that is consistent with socio-economic de-
evapotranspiration and wind speed which need to velopment goals is necessary to address the prob-
be factored in future studies. These climatic vari- lems of water use efficiency, especially in water
ables will likewise have significant changes with utilities. It is also needed to facilitate the coordi-
respect to time and space as a result of changes in nation and effective linkages among concerned
the global climate system. Other external or non- government agencies; to address the inadequate
climatic factors such as land use changes, increase balance of water supply and demand; and, to mo-
in population, pollution and watershed degrada- bilize public funds and private investments to sup-
tion will affect the supply-demand condition in port relevant projects.
the future.
Coastal Resources
On information gaps, there are several ar-
eas in the sector that need to be studied. These The need for baseline data and monitor-
are: ing cannot be over emphasized. There is an exi-
gency for improving and extending the existing
· vulnerability assessment of other existing knowledge and information on long-term hydro-
major reservoirs and river basins in the logic and meteorological conditions and changes
country. A more comprehensive vulner- (sea level, storm surge and tsunami wave heights),
ability analysis of the country’s reservoirs morphological processes, salinity intrusion, re-
and river basins would provide a wider per- sponse of ecological systems (such as coral reefs
spective in the identification of appropri- to warm temperature), and availability of high
ate adaptation measures. resolution topographic information. This will in-
volve increasing the quality and quantity of ob-
· comprehensive data base for the various serving platforms. Aside from these physical data,
water resources regions of the country. other information needed for all coastal zones are
This would in turn be of valuable impor-
provided in Table 4.2 .
tance in the conduct of vulnerability analy-
sis as well as adaptation assessment.
The availability of the above information
· impacts of climate change (temperature/ in the context of a Geographical Information Sys-
rainfall increase) on major water users such tem (GIS) will be beneficial in the early monitor-
as the domestic, industrial and agricultural ing of the impending impacts of climate change
sectors. As mentioned previously, infor- on the vulnerability and sustainability of coastal
mation on the impacts of climate change resources.
on domestic consumption, particularly of
developing countries, is still vague. The Philippine coastal zones are already
experiencing multiple problems. Among these are
· impacts of variations in temperature on the declining ecosystems (coral reefs, sea grasses,
89
Table 4.2 Coastal Zone Information Needs for Adaptation
Coastal Resource Social Organization Existing Environment Institutional, Legal &
Base in the Coastal Zone and Resource- Related Financial Capacity
Programs
Inventory of:
* Existing coastal * Existence & character * Environmental regulatory * Relevant national
resources of human settlements programs level institutions
* Present use of (villages, towns) * Fisheries management * Relevant regional/
coastal resources * Economic basis for programs provincial-level
* Present status of human settlements * Protected areas institutions
coastal resources * Existence of indigenous programs * Relevant local
* Potential for present peoples & their tradi- * Beach/erosion mgt. institutions
and future use tional coastal activities programs * Survey of legal
* Pollution control authorities relative to
programs coastal and ocean
* Other environmental activities
management programs * Existing capacity
building efforts, inclu-
ding those funded by
external forces
mangroves), low yield fish stocks, fast growing

populations, human settlements (squatting) and
conflict in use of the coastal zones/resources,
among others. An integrated coastal zone man-
agement is proposed to address the short and long
term problems. The short term-problems are usu-
ally demand driven while climate change and its
impacts fall in the long term time realm.
The issues and concerns involving both the

short and long term needs should be brought to
the attention of the concerned communities who
are the direct targets of the impacts, and of the
policy makers who will direct the changes towards
adapting to these impacts. Hence, information,
education and communication is essential along
with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve
a well balanced adaptation plan.
90
BIBLIOGRAPHY/REFERENCES
1. “Environment and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines,” Depart-

ment of Environment and Natural Resources, and the Environmental Cen-
ter of the Philippines Foundation, 1998.
2. “National Framework for Physical Planning, 1998-2028”, Final Draft,

National Land Use Committee, National Economic and Development
Authority, February, 1999.
3. “Philippine Environmental Quality Report, 1990-1995”, Environmental

Management Bureau, November, 1996
4. “Revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”, IPCC,

Geneva, Switzerland, 1996.
5. “The Study on Solid Waste Management for Metro Manila in the Repub-
lic of the Philippines”, Japan International Cooperation Agency, Metro
Manila Development Authority, 1998.
6. “Industrial Efficiency and Pollution Control and Environmental Man-

agement Strategy”, Montgomery, et. al., 1992.
7. “National Action Plan on Climate Change”, unpublished, Inter-Agency

Committee on Climate Change, 1998.
8. “Philippine Energy Plan, 1999 - 2008,” Energy Planning and Monitoring

Bureau, Department of Energy, 1999.
9. “Medium Term Philippine Development Plan (MTPDP), 1999 - 2004,”

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), 1998.
10. “Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy - Philippines,”

Asian Development Bank, Global Environment Facility, and United
Nations Development Programme, October, 1998.
11. “Philippine Transport Strategy Study,” for the Transport Agenda of the
MTPDP (1999-2004), Asian Development Bank, the Inter-Agency Tech-
nical Committee for Transport Planning and National Economic and
Development Authority, 1996.
12. “Medium Term Agricultural Development Plan (MTADP),” through the

Key Production Area (KPA) Approach: Review and Recommendations.
Center for Policy and Development Studies/Center for Integrative and
Development Studies and NEDA, 1996.
91

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i

Chapter I - National Circumstances 3

Chapter II - 1994 National GHG Inventory 21

Sustainable Development Program 31

Chapter IV - Financial and Technological Needs

Issues and Concerns 83

Figure 1.1 Map of the Philippines

Figure 3.1 Organizational Structure of the PCSD

Table 2.1 IPCC Equivalent of Local Fuel Types

Table 4.1 GHG Inventory Sectoral Issues and Concerns

ABBREVIATIONS OF AGENCIES AND ENTITIES

ADB - Asian Development Bank

OTHER ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS USED

ALGAS - Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy

A s a country Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Geography and Topography Climate and Weather

The Philippines, as an archipelago, is The Philippines has a humid equatorial

Demography/Population Trends Economy

Political Units Without the contribution of the still con-

Pursuant to Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

According to Article 12.1 of the Convention, the following general information

a.) a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals

b.) a general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement

The Conference of Parties elucidated on this further through Decision 10/CP.2

It must be underscored that this initial national communication, while drawing

T he Philippines, as an archipelago, is highly vulnerable to the potential impacts of

lands are inhabited. The 16 largest islands are

The Philippine archipelago stretches 1,840

Figure 1.1 Map of the Philippines

The inter-annual variability of the Philip- Natural Resources

Only about 1.8 million hectares of second

In 1996, of the 12.94 million hectares of

Rapid urbanization has resulted in the in-

The country’s total discontinuous coastline

The industrial sector is concentrated in the

Administratively, the country is divided

National Coordination Mechanism

The Philippines was among the first coun-

FIGURE 1.4 IACCC ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE

Member Member Member Member

Member Member Member Member

Pursuant to decision 10 CP/2, however, non-Annex I countries are required to

Methodology though further refinement of the data is now pos-

Industry The IRRI study used the following equa-

Data for these various parameters are given

Emissions from sludge and waste incinera-

The presence of human-induced or anthro- Energy

sphere can be attributed to activities and processes

Without the contribution of the still con- 80,000

amounts to 100,864 ktons of equivalent CO2. Of 40,000 -126

the four non-LUCF sectors responsible for the 20,000

country’s sources of GHGs, the Energy sector is 0

the most significant, accounting for about 49% of -20,000

Agriculture sector’s contribution of about 33%.

version. A more complete breakdown of these

In the Industry sector, 10,603 ktons of CO2

Agriculture GHG emissions from the Wastes sector

Grassland Agri Residue

Table 2.4 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory Results