Simple LBO Model
Simple LBO Model
Simple LBO Model
By Alexander D. Jarvis
www.alexanderjarvis.com
www.50folds.com
@adjblog / @50folds
Perpetual
LBO Analysis
$1,719.9
$40.0
2011
$172.9
10.1x
$1,719.9
359.4
$1,360.5
20.0%
$272.1
(134.9)
1,223.3
(88.2)
0
1,311.5
54.4
Exit Year
Err:523
17.7%
18.5%
ssumptions:
0
5 Years
Yes
10 Years
5.2%
$0.0
0.0
Avg.
32.4%
2010
(Amounts In M)
$30.97
39.9
3.14
0.97
-
-
42.999
Operating Statistics
Revenue Growth 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0%
EBITDA Growth 12.1% 8.8% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0%
EBIT Growth (20.4%) 11.9% 7.4% 5.8% 5.8%
Net Income Growth (56.7%) 22.4% 12.7% 9.5% 9.2%
Credit Statistics
Total Debt $286.3 $178.9 $64.1 $45.0 $45.0
Total Capitalization $1,533.4 $1,474.9 $1,415.2 $1,456.5 $1,522.4
Total Debt / Total Book Cap. 18.7% 12.1% 4.5% 3.1% 3.0%
Pro-Forma Net Income to Common $92.4 $40.0 $48.9 $55.1 $60.4 $65.9
Reconciliation to statutory
Profit on disposal of aset ($2.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Impariment of securities 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Share of loss on investees 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total $2.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Pro-Forma Net Income to Common $90.3 $40.0 $48.9 $55.1 $60.4 $65.9
Operating Assumptions
Revenue Growth -- 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0%
COGS / Revenue 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
SG&A / Revenue 11.9% 10.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Staff / Revenue 38.6% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0%
Rent / Revenue 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Operating Expense / Revenue 3.7% 51.7% 50.7% 50.7% 50.7% 50.7%
Equity remuneration / EBITDA pre-bonus 14.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Income Tax Rate 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4%
Balance Sheet Pro Forma Projected Fiscal Year Ended December 31,
(Dollars in Millions 2010 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523
Cash and Short-term Investments $187.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $102.4 $232.0
Accounts Receivable 49.9 52.4 55.5 58.9 61.8 64.9
Inventory 188.8 198.2 210.1 222.7 233.8 245.5
Other Current Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Property, Plant and Equipment $27.8 $32.3 $36.0 $38.8 $39.4 $37.7
Goodwill 1,311.5 1,257.1 1,202.7 1,148.2 1,093.8 1,039.4
Other Intangible Assets 311.2 310.2 309.1 308.1 307.0 306.0
Investment in Unconsolidated Subs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Long-term Assets 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0
Total Liabilities and Shareholders Equity $2,209.8 $1,983.2 $1,946.5 $1,909.7 $1,971.3 $2,058.6
Free Cash Flow Available / (Required) $283.7 $107.4 $114.9 $121.5 $232.0
Capital Expenditures
(Dollars in Millions
Capital Expenditures $10.0 $11.0 $12.1 $13.3 $13.3 $13.3
% of Revenue 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
(a) Total Net Debt equals total debt and preferred stock less excess cash.
Management Return
Free Cash Flow Summary Projected Fiscal Year Ended December 31,
(Dollars in Millions) Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) $111.0 $124.2 $133.4 $141.1 $149.4
Less:
Changes in Working Capital $5.3 $6.7 $7.1 $6.2 $6.6
Capital Expenditures (11.0) (12.1) (13.3) (13.3) (13.3)
Err:523
12.0x 12.5x 13.0x 13.5x 14.0x
PV of Free Cash Flow from Operations $530.4 $530.4 $530.4 $530.4 $530.4
Plus: PV of Terminal Multiple 1,496.8 1,559.1 1,621.5 1,683.8 1,746.2
WACC Firm Value as of 31, December 2010 WACC Equity Value as of 31, December 2010
11.0% $2,109.7 $2,174.9 $2,240.1 $2,305.4 $2,370.6 11.0% $2,296.7 $2,361.9 $2,427.2 $2,492.4 $2,557.6
11.5% 2,067.9 2,131.6 2,195.4 2,259.2 2,323.0 11.5% 2,254.9 2,318.7 2,382.4 2,446.2 2,510.0
12.0% 2,027.1 2,089.5 2,151.8 2,214.2 2,276.6 12.0% 2,214.1 2,276.5 2,338.9 2,401.2 2,463.6
12.5% 1,987.4 2,048.4 2,109.4 2,170.4 2,231.3 12.5% 2,174.4 2,235.4 2,296.4 2,357.4 2,418.4
13.0% 1,948.7 2,008.3 2,068.0 2,127.6 2,187.3 13.0% 2,135.7 2,195.3 2,255.0 2,314.6 2,374.3