3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (1)

Discrete Random Variables and their Probability Distributions

Let us briefly review some basic concepts of probability theory.
 The mutually exclusive results of a random process are called the outcomes. ‘Mutually exclusive’ means
that only one of the possible outcomes can be observed.
 We refer to the probability of an outcome as the proportion that the outcome occurs in the long run, that
is, if the experiment is repeated many times.
 The set of all possible outcomes of a random variable is called the sample space.
 An event is a subset of the sample space and consists of one or more outcomes.
These ideas are unified in the concept of a random variable which is a numerical summary of random outcomes.
Random variables can be discrete or continuous.
A discrete variable can only assume at most a countable set of isolated values, such as {0, 1, 2,3 4, 5}, {1, 2, 3,4, …},
{ 1/2 , 1/3 , 5/7, 4/9 }, or { 0.1 , 0.15, 0.75, 1.45 } etc.
.
(1) Probability Mass Function of a Discrete Random Variable
If a random variable X assumes discrete values (finite or countably infinite); x1, x2, … , xn, …… , it is called discrete
random variable. The function f(x) defined as
f(x) = P[X = x] if x  RX
is called the probability function (or the probability mass function, pmf ) of the random variable X with the properties:
(i) 0  P [X = x]  1

(ii)  P [X = xi ] = 1
i=1
e.g. The probability distribution for the sample space for tossing three coins is

X: 0 1 2 3 Total
Probability P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8 1
Example 1.
Find the probability distribution of the sum of the dots when two dice are thrown.
Sol.
We are familiar with the sample space when two dice are thrown:
Let X denotes the sum of the dots of the top faces, so the range of
X = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
X = 2 means the event {(1,1)}, therefore P[X=2] =1/36
X = 3 means, the event {(1,2), (2,1)}, therefore P[X=3] = 2/36
X = 4 means the event {(1,3), (3,1), (2,2)}, therefore P[X=4] = 3/36
…. …. ….
X = 12 means the event {(6,6)}, therefore P[X=12] = 1/36
Hence the complete probability distribution is
Xi 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PX(xi) = P[X=xi] 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36
Exercise 1.
Many manufacturers have quality control programs that include inspection of incoming materials for defects.
Suppose a computer manufacturer receives computer boards in lots of five. Two boards are selected from each lot for
inspection. We can represent possible outcomes of the selection process by pairs. For example, the pair (1, 2) represents the
selection of boards 1 and 2 for inspection.
List the ten different possible outcomes.
Suppose that boards 1 and 2 are the only defective boards in a lot of five. Two boards are to be chosen at random.
Define X to be the number of defective boards observed among those inspected. Find the probability distribution of X.
Sample space ={(1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (3,4), (3,5), (4,5) }
X: 0 1 2 Total
P(X): 3/10 6/10 1/10 1
Exercise 2.
Let X be the number of years before a particular type of machines will need replacement. Assume that X has the
probability function f(1) = 0.1, f(2) = 0.2, f(3) = 0.2, f(4) = 0.2, f(5) = 0.3. Find the probability that machine needs no replacement
during the first 3 years. (Kreyszig 7th Ex 24.5)
Example 2.
If X has the probability function f(x) = k/2x (X= 0,1,2,3,…) What is the value of k and find P(X  4) (Kreyszig 7th Ex 24.5)
Solution: as f is a probability function, therefore  f(x) = 1
  k/2x = 1
3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (2)

By solving 1 + ½ + 1/2 2 + 1/23 + …… = 1

We get k = ½
Hence p.d.f becomes f(x) = 1/2x+1
P(X  4) = 1/25 + 1/26 + …… is G.P with a = ½5 and r = ½
now solve it

(2) Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable

Two numbers are often used to summarize a probability distribution for a random variable X. The mean is a measure
of the center or middle of the probability distribution, and the variance is a measure of the dispersion, or variability in the
distribution.
Definition
The mean or expected value of a random variable X denoted by E(X) indicates its weighted mean of all of its possible
values x1, x2, … , xn each weighted by the respective probability.
Let X be a discrete random variable having values x1, x2, … , xn with corresponding probabilities P(X=x1) , P(X=x2), … ,
P(X=xn) such that  P(X=xi) = 1. Then the mathematical expectation or the expectation or the expected value of X, denoted by
E(X) is defined as
E(X) = x1 P(X=x1) + x2 P(X=x2) + … + P(X=xn) xn =  xi P(X=xi)
The measure of variability of a random variable X is referred to as the variance of the random variable or the variance
of the probability distribution of X is denoted by Var (X) and defined as:
Var(X) = E[(X  )2 ] =  (X  )2 P(X=xi) , if X is discrete and
Example 3.
Two new product designs are to be compared on the basis of revenue potential. Marketing feels that the revenue
from design A can be predicted quite accurately to be $3 million. The revenue potential of design B is more difficult to assess.
Marketing concludes that there is a probability of 0.3 that the revenue from design B will be $7 million, but there is a 0.7
probability that the revenue will be only $2 million. Which design do you prefer?
Solution
Let X denote the revenue from design A. Because there is no uncertainty in the revenue from design A, we can model
the distribution of the random variable X as $3 million with probability 1. Therefore, E(X) = $3 million.
Let Y denote the revenue from design B. The expected value of Y in millions of dollars is
E(Y) = $ 7(0.3) + $2(0.7) = $3.5
Because E(Y) exceeds E(X), we might prefer design B. However, the variability of the result from design B is larger.
That is,
2 = (7 – 3.5)2 (0.3) + (2 – 3.5)2 (0.7)
= 5.25 millions of dollars squared
 Standard Deviation =  = 2 = $2.29
Because the units of standard deviation are the same as the units of the random variable, the standard deviation is
easier to interpret. In this example, we can summarize our results as “the average deviation of Y from its mean is $2.29 million.’
Example 4.
How many heads would you expect if you flipped a coin twice?
X = number of heads = {0, 1, 2} with p(0) = ¼, p(1) = ½ and p(2) = ¼
Weighted Average = E(X) = 0¼ + 1½ + 2¼ = 1
and E(X2) = 02¼ + 12½ + 22¼ = 3/2
Then Var (X) = E(X2) [E(X)]2 = 3/2 1 = ½
Example 5.
Roll a die. If the side comes up is odd, you win the $ equivalent of that side. If it is even, you lose $ 4. Let X denotes
our earning, so the possible values of the variable X are: 1,3,5, -4, therefore
X 1 3 5 -4
P(X=x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
E(X) = 11/6 + 31/6 + 51/6 + (-4)  3/6 = - ½
E(X2) = 121/6 + 321/6 + 521/6 + (-4)2  3/6 = 1/6 + 9/6 + 25/6 + 48 / 6 = 13.8
Var (X) = 13.8  0.25 = 13.55
Exercise 3.
If it rains, an umbrella salesman can earn $30 per day. If it is fair he can lose $6 per day. What is his expectation, if the
probability of rain is 0.3?
Exercise 4.
A coin is biased such that a head is three times as likely to occur as a tail. Find the expected number of tails when this
coin is tossed twice. (Walpole Problem 4.4)
3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (3)

Exercise 5.
A man draws two balls from a bag containing 3white and 5 black balls. If he receives Rs.70 for every white ball he
draws and Rs.7 for every black ball, find his expectation? 2014
Exercise 6.
In summer season, a dealer of desert room cooler can earn Rs.500 per day if the day is hot and can earn Rs.200 per
day if it is fair and loses Rs.60 per day if it is cloudy. Find the expectation if the probability of the day being hot is 0.40, for being
fair it is 0.35 and being cloudy it is 0.25?
Exercise 7.
One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for a color television valued at $350. What is the expected value of the gain
if you purchase one ticket?
(Example 5.12, page 264, “Introductory Statistics” by Bluman)

(1) Bernoulli Experiment:

Suppose a random experiment has two outcomes, namely Success and Failure. Let probability of success be
p and probability of failure be q = 1  p. Such an experiment is called Bernoulli experiment or Bernoulli trial.
Trials of random experiment are called Bernoulli trials, if they satisfy the following conditions:
1. There is finite number of trials
2. The trials should be independent.
3. Each trial has exactly two outcomes: success or failure.
4. The probability of success remains the same in each trial.
(2) Binomial Probability Distribution
Consider a fixed number n of mutually independent Bernoulli trails. Suppose these trials have same probability of
success, say p. A random variable X is called a binomial random variable if it represents the total number of successes in n
independent Bernoulli trials.
Thus, to find the probability density function of X we have to find the probability of x successes in n independent trails.
If we have x successes in n trails, then the probability of each n-tuple with x successes and n − x failures is
px (1 − p)n−x.
However, there are nCx tuples with x successes and n − x failures in n trials.
x nx
Hence P[X = x] = nCx p q ( x = 0, 1, 2, … ,n )
Therefore the probability density function of X is
x nx
f(x) = nCx p q ( x = 0, 1, 2, … ,n )
The random variable X is called the binomial random variable with parameters and if its probability density
function is of the form
x nx
f(x) = nCx p q ( x = 0, 1, 2, … ,n )
Example 6.
On a five-question multiple-choice test there are five possible answers, of which one is correct. If a student guesses
randomly and independently.
what is the probability that she is correct only on questions 1 and 4?
what is the probability that she is correct only on two questions?
Solution (i)
1 4
The probability of a success is p = 5 , and thus 1  p = 5 , therefore, the probability that she is correct on question 1 and
4 is
1 2 4 3 64
P(correct on question 1 and 4) = p2 (1  p)3 =  5   5  = 55 = 0.02048
   
Solution (ii)
1 2 4 3 64
P(correct on any two questions) = 5C2 p2 (1  p)3 = 10   5   5  = 55 = 0.2048
   
Mean and Variance
The mean and variance of the binomial distribution b(x; n, p) are
 = np and 2 = npq
Example 7.
Tests for impurities commonly found in drinking water from private wells showed that 30% of all wells in a particular
county have impurity A. If a random sample of five wells is selected from the large number of wells in the county, what is the
probability that:
a. Exactly three will have impurity A?
b. At least three?
c. Fewer than three?
3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (4)

Solution
The sampling procedure represents a Binomial experiment with n = 5 and p = 0.3.
a. The probability of drawing exactly y = 3 wells containing impurity A is

( )n
p(y) = y p q
y ny

5!
when n = 5, p = 0.3 and y = 3, p(3) = 3!2! (0.3)3 (0.7)2 = 0.13230

b. The probability of observing at least three wells containing impurity A is

P(y  3) = p(3) + p(4) + p(5)
5!
Where p(4) = 4!1! (0.3)4 (0.7)1 = 0.02835
5!
p(4) = 5!0! (0.3)5 (0.7)0 = 0.00243
Since we found p(3) in part a. we have
P(y  3) = p(3) + p(4) + p(5) =0.13230 + 0.02835 + 0.00243
c. P(y < 3) = p(0) + p(1) + p(2)
by using the complementary relationship and the fact that  P(y) = 1, we have
p(y < 3) = 1  p(y  3) = 1  0.16308 = 0.83692
Example 8.
A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device from a manufacturer. The manufacturer indicates
that the defective rate of the device is 3%.
(a) The inspector of the retailer randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What is
the probability that there will be at least one defective item among these 20?
(b) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and the inspector randomly tests 20 devices per
shipment. What is the probability that there will be 3 shipments containing at least one defective device?
(Example 5.6, Book: Probability and Statistics by Walpole 8th Ed)
Solution (a)
Denote by X the number of defective devices among the 20. This follows that
n = 20 , X = 0, 1, 2, …, 20 and p = 0.03,
the probability of a defective device, therefore
P(X > 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 – 20 C0 p0 q20-0
= 1 - 0.03°(1 - 0.03)20 = 0.4562.
Solution (b)
In this case, each shipment contains at least one defective. Hence, testing the result of each shipment is a trial with p
= 0.4562 from part (a). Assuming the independence from shipment to shipment and denoting by Y the number of shipments
containing at least one defective item Y follows another binomial distribution b(x; 10, 0.4562). Therefore, the answer to this
question is
P(Y = 3) = 10 C3 0.45623(1 - 0.4562)7 = 0.1602
(3) The Poisson Probability Distribution
Given an interval of real numbers, assume counts occur at random throughout the interval. If the interval can be
partitioned into subintervals of small enough length such that
(1) the probability of more than one count in a subinterval is zero,
(2) the probability of one count in a subinterval is the same for all subintervals and
proportional to the length of the subinterval, and
(3) the count in each subinterval is independent of other subintervals,
This random experiment is called a Poisson process.
The random variable X that equals the number of counts in the interval is a Poisson random variable with parameter 0 < , and
xe-
the probability mass function of X is P(X ; ) = x! , x = 0, 1, 2, …
The characteristics of a Poisson random variable are listed below:
 the experiment consists of counting the number X of times a particular event occur during a given unit
of time, or in a given area of volume (or weight, distance, or any other unit of measurement).
 The probability that an event occurs in a given unit of time, area, or volume is the same for all the units.
 The number of events that occur in one unit of time, area, or volume is independent of the number that
occurs in other units.
 The mean (or expected) number of events in each unit will be denoted by the Greek letter meu, 
The Mean and Variance
Mean =  and 2 = 
 is called the parameter of a Poisson distribution.
3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (5)

Example 9.
In a certain industrial facility, accidents occur infrequently. It is known that the probability of an accident on any given
day is 0.005 and accidents are independent of each other.
(a) What is the probability that in any given period of 400 days there will be an accident on one day?
(b) What is the probability that there are at most three days with an accident? (Walpole Example 5.19)
Solution
Let X be a binomial random variable with n = 400 and p = 0.005. Thus, np = 2.
Using the Poisson approximation,
(a) P(X = 1) = e−221 = 0.271 and
3
(b) P(X ≤ 3) =  e-22x/x! = 0.857
x=0
Example 10.
In a manufacturing process where glass products are made, defects or bubbles occur, occasionally rendering the piece
undesirable for marketing. It is known that, on average, 1 in every 1000 of these items produced has one or more bubbles.
What is the probability that a random sample of 8000 will yield fewer than 7 items possessing bubbles?
Solution
This is essentially a binomial experiment with n = 8000 and p = 0.001. Since p is very close to 0 and n is quite large, we
shall approximate with the Poisson distribution using
 = (8000)(0.001) = 8.
Hence, if X represents the number of bubbles, we have
6
P(X < 7) =  b(x; 8000, 0.001) ≈ p(x;8) = 0.3134.
x=0
Example 11.
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page manuscript, find the probability that a given
page contains exactly 3 errors. (Bluman Example 5.27)
Solution
First, find the mean number  of errors. Since there are 200 errors distributed over 500 pages, each page has an
average of
200 2
 = 500 = 5 = 0.4
xe- (0.4)3e-0.4
P(X; ) = x! = 3! = 0.0072
Thus, there is less than a 1% chance that any given page will contain exactly 3 errors.
Examples
For the case of the thin copper wire, suppose that the number of flaws follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of
2.3 flaws per millimeter.
(i) Determine the probability of exactly two flaws in 1 millimeter of wire.
Let X denote the number of flaws in 1 millimeter of wire. Then, E(X) = 2.3 flaws and
e-2.3 (2.3)2
P(X = 2) = 2! = 0.265
(ii) Determine the probability of 10 flaws in 5 millimeters of wire.
Let X denote the number of flaws in 5 millimeters of wire. Then, X has a Poisson distribution with
E(X) = 5 mm  2.3 flaws/mm = 11.5 flaws
e-11.5 (11.5)10
Therefore P(X = 10) = 10! = 0.113
(iii) Determine the probability of at least one flaw in 2 millimeters of wire.
Let X denote the number of flaws in 2 millimeters of wire. Then, X has a Poisson distribution with
E(X) = 2 mm  2.3 flaws/mm = 4.6 flaws
Therefore,
P(X  1) = 1  P(X = 0) = 1  e-4.6 = 0.9899
Practical Interpretation: Notice that when a probability was requested for 2 mm of wire 2 was adjusted to 4.6, the
mean number of flaws in 2 mm. With such adjustments, probabilities can be calculated for intervals of any size.
Example 12.
Suppose that number Y of a company’s employees absent on Mondays has approximately a Poisson probability
distribution. Furthermore, assume that the average number of Monday absent is 2.5.
(a) Find the mean and the standard deviation of Y, the number of employees absent on Monday.
(b) Find the probability that exactly 5 employees are absent on a given Monday.
(c) Find the probability that 2 or more employees are absent on a Monday.
Solution
a) The mean and variance of a Poisson random variable are both equals to . Thus, for this example
3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (6)

 =  = 2.5 and 2 =  = 2.5

then the standard deviation is
 = 2.5 = 1.58
b) We want the probability that exactly 5 employees are absent on Monday.
ye-
The probability distribution for y is P(y) = y!
Then, since  = 2.5, y = 5 and e-2.5 = 0.082085
(2.5)5e-2.5 (2.5)2 (0.082085)
 P(5; 2.5) = 5! = 5 . 4 . 3 . 2 . 1 = 0.067
c) to find the probability that two or more employees or absent on Monday,
we need to find

P(y 2) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + … =  P(y)
y=2
In order to find the probability of this event, we must consider the complementary event.
Thus, P(y 2) = 1 – P(y  1) = 1 – [P(0) + P(1)]
(2.5)0e-2.5 (2.5)1e-2.5 1 . (0.082085) (2.5)2 (0.082085)
=1- 0! - 1! =1- 1 - 1 = 1 – 0.287 = 0.713
According to our Poisson model, the probability that two or more employees are absent on Monday is 0.713.
Example 13.
The probability that a man aged 50 years will die within a year is 0.01125. What is the probability that of 12 such men
at least 11 will reach their fifty-first birthday?
Solution
Here p = 0.01125 and n = 12. We compute the desired probability by means of Poisson distribution because the
probability of death is very small.
Therefore  = np = 12  (0.01125) = 0.135, and the Poisson distribution is
e-0.135(0.135)x
P(x; 0.135) = x!
Now the probability that no person will die, i.e. all the 12 persons will survive, is
(0.135)2 (0.135)3
P(0; 0.135) = e-0.135 = 1  0.135 + 2!  3! + … = 0.8737,
and the probability that 1 person will die, i.e. 11 persons will survive, is
e-0.135(0.135)1
p(1; 0.135) = 1! = (0.8737) (0.135) = 0.1179
Hence the probability that at least 11 persons will survive
= P(0; 0.135) + p(1; 0.135) = 0.8737 + 0.1179 = 0.9916
(4) The Negative Binomial Probability Distribution
If repeated independent trials can result in a success with probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 − p, then
the probability distribution of the random variable X, the number of the trial on which the kth success occurs, is
P[X = x] = x-1Ck-1 pk qx – k , x = k, k+1, k+2, …
The mean and variance of a negative binomial random variable are, respectively,
k kq
=p and 2 = p2
Example 14.
For a certain manufacturing process, it is known that, on the average, 10 in every 100 items is defective. What is the
probability that the 20th item inspected is the third defective item found?
Solution
P[X = x] = x-1Ck-1 p3 q5 – 3
here X = 20th trial containing k = 3rd defective item and p = 10/100 = 0.10
Therefore,
P[X = 3]. = 20-1C3-1 (0.10)3 (0.90)20 – 3 = 19C2 (0.10)3 (0.90)17
Example 15.
To attach the housing on a motor, a production line assembler must use electrical too to select and tighten four bolts.
Suppose that the probability of setting and tightening a bolt in any 1-second is p = 0.8. if if the assembler fails in the first second,
the probability of success during the second 1-second interval is 0.8, find
(i) probability distribution of X, the length of time until complete housing is attached.
(ii) probability at X = 6
(iii) the mean and variance of X
3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (7)

Example 16.
The probability that a person will install a black telephone in a residence is estimated to be 0.3. find the probability
that the 10th phone installed in a new sub-division is the 5th black phone.
Example 17.
A Web site randomly selects among 10 products to discount each day. The color printer of interest to you is discounted today.
1) What is the expected number of days until this product is again discounted?
2) What is the probability that this product is first discounted again exactly 10 days from now?
3) If the product is not discounted for the next five days, what is the probability that it is first discounted again 15 days from now?
4) What is the probability that this product is first discounted again within three or fewer days?
. Getting only single attempt out of x attempts, different from bernouli in a sense.
(5) The Geometric Probability Distribution That in bernouli we have only 2 attempt but here attempts are x.
If repeated independent trials can result in a success with probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 − p, then
the probability distribution of the random variable X, the number of the trial on which the first success occurs, is
P[X = x] = p qx -1 , x = 1, 2, 3, …
The mean and variance of a geometric random variable are, respectively,
1 1-p
=p and 2 = p2
Example 18.
For a certain manufacturing process, it is known that, on the average, 1 in every 100 items is defective. What is the
probability that the fifth item inspected is the first defective item found?
Solution
Using the geometric distribution with x = 5 and p = 0.01, we have
P[X = x] = p qx -1 , x = 1, 2, 3, …
P[X = 5] = (0.01)(0.99)4 = 0.0096.

Exercise 8. (Geometric and Negative Binomial Distributions)

The probability of a successful optical alignment in the assembly of an optical data storage product is 0.8. Assume the
trials are independent.
(a) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires exactly four trials?
(b) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires at most four trials?
(c) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires at least four trials?
(Douglas Montgomery 3rd Problem 3.73)
Exercise 9.
A particularly long traffic light on your morning commute is green 20% of the time that you approach it. Assume that
each morning represents an independent trial.
(i) What is the probability that the first morning that the light is green is the fourth morning that you approach it?
(ii) What is the probability that the light is not green for 10 consecutive mornings?
(Douglas Montgomery 3rd Problem 3.73 and 3.75)

For a certain manufacturing process, it is known that, on the average, 1 in every 100 items is defective. What is the
probability that the fifth item inspected is the first defective item found?
(Douglas Montgomery 5th Example 5.15)

(6) The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Characteristics of Hypergeometric Random Variable

The probability of selecting x successes from the k items labeled successes and n − x failures from the N − k items
labeled failures when a random sample of size n is selected from N items. This is known as a hypergeometric experiment, that is,
one that possesses the following two properties:
1. A random sample of size n is selected without replacement from N items.
2. Of the N items, k may be classified as successes and N − k are classified as failures.
The Probability Mass Function
The number X of successes of a hypergeometric experiment is called a hypergeometric random variable. Accordingly,
the probability distribution of the hypergeometric variable is called the hypergeometric distribution, and its values are denoted
by h(x;N, n, k),
The hypergeometric probability distribution is given by
rC  N-rC
x n-x
P(X = x) = NC [x = Maximum {0,n-(n-r)}, … ,Minimum (r,n)]
n
Where N = total no. of elements
3 Random Variables and their Probability Distributions (8)

r = no. of S’s in the N elements

n = no. of elements drawn
x = no. of S’s drawn in the n elements
The mean and variance of the hypergeometric random variable are, respectively,
nr r(N-r) n (N-n)
 = N and 2 = N2(N-1)

Exercise 10.
A lot of 12 compressor tanks is checked to see whether there are any defective tanks. Three tanks are checked for
leaks. If 1 or more of the 3 is defective, the lot is rejected. Find the probability that the lot will be rejected if there are actually 3
defective tanks in the lot. (Bluman)
Exercise 11.
Lots of 40 components each are deemed unacceptable if they contain 3 or more defectives. The procedure for
sampling a lot is to select 5 components at random and to reject the lot if a defective is found. What is the probability that
exactly 1 defective is found in the sample if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot?
(Example 5.9, Book: “Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists” by Walpole 9 th Ed)
Exercise 12.
A shipment of 24 electric typewriters is rejected if 3 are checked for defects and at least 1 is found to
be defective. Find the probability that the shipment will be returned if there are actually 6 typewriters that are defective.
(Problem 5.4.21, “Introductory Statistics” by Bluman)
Exercise 13.
A batch of parts contains 100 parts from a local supplier of tubing and 200 parts from a supplier of tubing in the next
state. If four parts are selected randomly and without replacement, what is the probability they are all from the local supplier?
(Douglas Montgomery 3rd Example 3.27)
Exercise 14.
The acceptance scheme for purchasing lots containing a large number of batteries is to test no more than 75
randomly selected batteries and to reject a lot if a single battery fails. Suppose the probability of a failure is 0.001.
(a) What is the probability that a lot is accepted?
(b) What is the probability that a lot is rejected on the 20th test?
(c) What is the probability that it is rejected in 10 or fewer trials?
(Book: problem 5.89 “Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists” by Walpole 9th Ed)
Exercise 15.
A company generally purchases large lots of a certain kind of electronic device. A method is used that rejects a lot if 2
or more defective units are found in a random sample of 100 units.
(a) What is the probability of rejecting a lot that is 1% defective?
(b) What is the probability of accepting a lot that is 5% defective?
(Book: problem 5.83 “Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists” by Walpole 9th Ed)