【Freedonia】FW95051iul

Freedonia Focus Reports
Global Collection
Global
Macroeconomy
May 2021
www.freedoniafocusreports.com
Table of Contents
1. Highlights 3
2. Global Overview & Forecasts 5

GDP & Per Capita Income 5
Population 9
Personal Consumption Expenditures 11
Manufacturing Value Added 13
Construction Expenditures 16
3. Regional Segmentation & Forecasts 19

North America 19
Western Europe 22
Asia/Pacific 26
Other Regions 30
Central & South America 32
Eastern Europe 32
Africa/Mideast 33
4. About This Report 34

Scope 34
Sources 35
Freedonia Methodology 35
Resources 37
Global Macroeconomy 1
©2021 The Freedonia Group. All rights reserved.
List of Tables & Figures
Figure 1 | Global GDP Outlook, 2020 – 2025 3
Figure 2 | Global GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril) 5
Table 1 | Global GDP & Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 5
Figure 3 | Global GDP Growth, 2010 – 2021 (year-on-year % change) 6
Figure 4 | Global Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$) 7
Figure 5 | Global GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%) 8
Figure 6 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (bil persons) 9
Table 2 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (mil persons) 9
Figure 7 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%) 10
Figure 8 | Global Personal Consumption Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$
tril) 11
Table 3 | Global Personal Consumption Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$
bil) 11
Figure 9 | Global Personal Consumption Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%) 12
Figure 10 | Global Manufacturing Value Added by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril) 13
Table 4 | Global Manufacturing Value Added by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil) 13
Figure 11 | Global Manufacturing Value Added by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%) 14
Figure 12 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril) 16
Table 5 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil) 16
Figure 13 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%) 17
Figure 14 | North America GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril) 19
Table 6 | North America: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 19
Figure 15 | North America: Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$) 20
Table 7 | North America: Key Economic Indicators by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil) 21
Figure 16 | Western Europe: GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril) 22
Table 8 | Western Europe: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil) 22
Figure 17 | Western Europe: Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$) 23
Table 9 | Western Europe: Key Economic Indicators by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$
bil) 24
Figure 18 | Asia/Pacific: GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril) 26
Table 10 | Asia/Pacific: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 26
Figure 19 | Asia/Pacific: Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$) 27
Table 11 | Asia/Pacific: Key Economic Indicators by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil) 29
Figure 20 | Other Regions: GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril) 30
Table 12 | Other Regions: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 30
Figure 21 | Other Regions: Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$) 31
Table 13 | Other Regions: Key Economic Indicators by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil) 31
Highlights
• Global real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to
rise 3.8% annually through 2025, with the Asia/Pacific region continuing to
lead the way despite moderations in growth in China, the region’s largest
economy.
• The Africa/Mideast region will post the second fastest economic growth of
any region through 2025, with real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.5%.
Expected growth in the prices of crude oil and other commodities will
support economic gains in many of the region’s economies. Notably, these
growth rates stem from a depressed base year, as 2020 economic activity
was negatively affected from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Figure 1 | Global GDP Outlook, 2020 – 2025
Source: The Freedonia Group
• In 2020, global GDP fell 4.2% due to the disruptions caused by COVID-19.
While economic disruptions related to COVID-19 are expected to continue
through 2021, global GDP is projected to increase 4.9% in 2021 as most
countries see some rebound after the severe lockdowns imposed on persons
and many economic sectors in 2020.
• Global personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are expected to rise 3.8%

annually in real terms from 2020 to 2025. The Asia/Pacific region will enjoy
Highlights
the fastest growth in personal consumption expenditures, with increases of

5.3% per annum. India is projected to see annual gains of 7.1% to 2025,
while Vietnam is projected to experience yearly growth of 6.2%. Rising
personal incomes in many of the region’s lower-income countries will lift
consumer spending. Increasing access to online shopping will also boost
opportunities to engage in consumer spending by expanding access to a
wider range of goods and services in a convenient way.
• Global construction expenditures in real terms are projected to advance

3.8% per year through 2025. Despite the relatively modest gains expected
for China, the Asia/Pacific region will offer above average growth prospects.
Countries in the region with moderately low incomes – such as India,
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam – will enjoy robust
advances in construction activity as rising incomes support business
expansion and housing construction.
Global Overview & Forecasts
GDP & Per Capita Income
Figure 2 | Global GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 1 | Global GDP & Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Global GDP (2019US$ bil) 101300 119390 129850 136260 156300 1.7 % 3.8 %
North America 21250 23820 24880 25750 28040 0.9 % 2.4 %
Western Europe 19420 20350 20140 21050 22930 -0.2 % 2.6 %
Asia/Pacific 34950 45970 55120 58710 70520 3.7 % 5.1 %
Other Regions 25680 29250 29710 30750 34810 0.3 % 3.2 %
Average Global Per Capita GDP (2019US$) 14640 16280 16780 17420 19230 0.6 % 2.8 %
North America 46450 49800 50110 51500 54500 0.1 % 1.7 %
Western Europe 47300 48660 47530 49610 53700 -0.5 % 2.5 %
Asia/Pacific 8960 11220 12890 13620 15910 2.8 % 4.3 %
Other Regions 17732 17729 16500 16736 17429 -1.4 % 1.1 %
Global real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is expected to rise 3.8% annually from 2020 to 2025,
with the Asia/Pacific region registering the fastest gains despite growth moderations in
China, the region’s largest economy. The Africa/Mideast region will post the second fastest
growth of any region through 2025, with real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.5%.
Expected growth in the prices of crude oil and other commodities will support economic
gains in the region. Growth rates from 2020 to 2025 stem from a depressed base year, as
2020 economic activity was negatively affected from the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2020, global GDP fell 4.2% due to the disruptions caused by COVID-19. While economic
disruptions related to COVID-19 are expected to continue through 2021, global GDP is
projected to increase 4.9% in 2021 as most countries see some rebound after the severe
lockdowns imposed on persons and many nonessential economic sectors in 2020. The
ongoing spread of COVID-19, government enforcement of social distancing and the pace of
vaccinations will help determine the rate of economic recovery in 2021.
Figure 3 | Global GDP Growth, 2010 – 2021 (year-on-year % change)
Over the 2010-2020 period, global economic gains were the fastest in 2010, at 5.1%, as
businesses and consumers recovered from the 2009 recession. Growth decelerated from
the decade’s second-highest gains of 3.7% in 2017 to 2.7% gains in 2019. In large part, the
deceleration in growth was due to trade tensions between the US, Canada, Mexico, various
European countries, China, South Korea, and other large economies as the US government
tried to rebalance the US trade position in various manufactured goods such as aluminum,
steel, and motor vehicles.
Per capita GDP is a rough measure of a country’s income per person and can be used to
categorize countries by their level of economic development. In real terms, global per
capita GDP is forecast to increase 2.8% annually from 2020 to 2025, a healthy rate
attributable to the recovery from declines caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Also
supporting gains is a longer term trend of economic development in lower-income regions
and slowing population increases. The Asia/Pacific region is projected to enjoy the fastest
growth in real GDP through 2025, and those gains will help GDP per capita in the region
expand at a pace 1.5 times faster than the global average. China, India, the Philippines, and
Vietnam will all record above average gains in per capita GDP over the forecast period,
which is projected to translate to a declining incidence of poverty among their populations.
Figure 4 | Global Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$)
Although the Africa/Mideast region is expected to have real GDP growth of 3.5% per
annum from 2020 to 2025, per capita GDP growth is projected to register at the slowest
rate of any region at 1.3% per year. The reason for the slow per capita GDP gains in the
Africa/Mideast region is the rapid ongoing growth projected for the region’s population,
expected to grow 2.2% yearly to 2025, faster than that of any other region.
Figure 5 | Global GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)
Population
Figure 6 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (bil persons)
Table 2 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (mil persons)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Global Population 6918.0 7335.0 7740.0 7820.0 8130.0 1.1 % 1.0 %

North America 457.5 478.3 496.5 500.0 514.5 0.7 % 0.7 %
Western Europe 410.6 418.2 423.7 424.3 427.0 0.3 % 0.2 %
Asia/Pacific 3902.0 4096.0 4276.0 4309.0 4432.0 0.9 % 0.7 %
Other Regions 2147.5 2342.8 2544.0 2587.0 2756.0 1.7 % 1.6 %
Note: Segments may not add to total due to independent rounding.

The global population is projected to total 8.1 billion persons in 2025 on annual increases
of 1.0%, a slight deceleration from the rate of the 2015-2020 period in a continuation of a
longer term trend. Fertility rates around the world have decreased as income and
education levels rise. The fastest increases are expected in the Africa/Mideast region,
where the population is projected to expand 2.2% per annum to 2025.
In 2020, the Asia/Pacific region accounted for 55% of the global population. Over the
forecast period, population growth in the Asia/Pacific region will trail the global average
despite changes to Chinese policy in late 2015 that increased the number of children
allowed per family from one to two. Changing social norms and rising incomes in China will
keep birth rates subdued through the forecast period.
While Western Europe is forecast to see slight population growth, some large countries in
the region (i.e., Germany, Greece, Italy, and Portugal) are projected to experience declines.
Eastern Europe represents the world’s only major region projected to see population
declines from 2020 to 2025. Most of the larger countries in Eastern Europe (i.e., Russia,
Ukraine, Poland, and Romania) are forecast to experience declines in population through
2025.
Figure 7 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)
Personal Consumption Expenditures

Figure 8 | Global Personal Consumption Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 3 | Global Personal Consumption Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Global PCE 56670 66530 71320 74900 85750 1.4 % 3.8 %

North America 13980 15690 16540 17220 18710 1.1 % 2.5 %
Western Europe 10810 11140 10830 11390 12140 -0.6 % 2.3 %
Asia/Pacific 17250 22690 26750 28440 34550 3.3 % 5.3 %
Other Regions 14630 17010 17200 17850 20350 0.2 % 3.4 %
Global personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are expected to rise 3.8% annually in real
terms from 2020 to 2025. The Asia/Pacific region will enjoy the fastest growth in personal
consumption expenditures, with increases of 5.3% per annum. India is projected to see
annual gains of 7.1% to 2025, while Vietnam is projected to experience yearly growth of
6.2%. Rising personal incomes in many of the region’s lower-income countries will lift
consumer spending. Increasing access to online shopping will also boost opportunities to
engage in consumer spending by expanding access to a wider range of goods and services
in a convenient way.
PCE measures the goods and services purchased by individuals. High per capita
expenditure levels are supported by high incomes, which are usually found in countries
with advanced manufacturing and services sectors featuring highly trained workers, many
of whom have completed college-level training. Conversely, per capita expenditure levels
are low in countries lacking advanced manufacturing and services industries – often due to
low levels of public infrastructure investment and low educational attainment levels. Many
low-income countries are found in Africa and Asia.
Many residents in underdeveloped countries and some in developing countries only

purchase basic, low-end consumer products and service, limiting the measure value of PCE.
However, consumer spending on goods and services is likely to rise along with per capita
incomes. For example, PCE in Vietnam rose 6.3% annually from 2015 to 2020 as GDP per
capita increased 4.9% per annum.
Figure 9 | Global Personal Consumption Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)
Manufacturing Value Added

Figure 10 | Global Manufacturing Value Added by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 4 | Global Manufacturing Value Added by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Global MVA 16300 19450 21350 22360 25800 1.9 % 3.9 %

North America 2654 2844 2805 2907 3185 -0.3 % 2.6 %
Western Europe 2835 2991 2890 3038 3355 -0.7 % 3.0 %
Asia/Pacific 7431 9770 11740 12360 14660 3.7 % 4.5 %
Other Regions 3380 3845 3915 4055 4600 0.4 % 3.3 %
Global manufacturing value added (MVA) is forecast to rise 3.9% per annum in real terms
from 2020 to 2025. Through 2025, the Asia/Pacific region will continue to post the fastest
growth in manufacturing activity:
• Gains in MVA in China will fail to match the pace set from 2015 to 2020, as
the country faces competition from Asian countries with lower incomes,
such as Vietnam, as well as from Mexico as a manufacturing base for

supplying the US market.
• Robust gains are anticipated in India, the Philippines, and Vietnam, in part
due to a pivot in manufacturing activity away from China as wages in that
country rise and make labor-intensive manufacturing in other lower-income
Asian countries more competitive.
MVA measures the difference between manufacturers’ receipts from sales and their cost of
raw materials. It indicates manufacturing’s contribution to total economic output and can
serve as a proxy for industrial activity in value terms, allowing for cross-country and
interregional comparisons.
Figure 11 | Global Manufacturing Value Added by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)
Notably, motor vehicle production – a major manufacturing sector – is undergoing changes

in the locations of factories due to various factors, such as the exit of the UK from the
European Union (EU) and a desire among manufacturers to locate production in the
regions where most of the output will be sold in part to avoid the tensions that often
accompany large amounts of imports into a country.
UK motor vehicle production registered a 2010-2020 peak in 2016, at 1.8 million units,
roughly the same level as during the 2000-2005 period. However, the UK voted to leave the
EU in June 2016, and from that year to 2020, motor vehicle production fell every year,
dropping to 1.4 million units in 2019, and an estimated 940,000 units in 2020. UK motor
vehicle production levels are projected to reach back to 2019 levels by 2025, but remain
below 2016 peaks.
The decline in UK motor vehicle production is not wholly attributable to the UK exit from
the EU, but also due to a global manufacturing strategy of locating facilities close to markets
where the final products will be sold, and locating in an island country such as UK is not
compatible with that strategy. Furthermore, regional motor vehicle output levels in
Western Europe in 2025 are projected to register 8% below the 2017 peak in production.
Firms in the region are increasingly assembling motor vehicles in Eastern Europe due to
lower labor costs.
Construction Expenditures
Figure 12 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 5 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Global Construction Expenditures 12890 16340 17070 18030 20600 0.9 % 3.8 %
North America 1962 2311 2315 2372 2480 0.0 % 1.4 %
Western Europe 2157 2053 2168 2273 2450 1.1 % 2.5 %
Asia/Pacific 5886 8603 9420 10060 11845 1.8 % 4.7 %
Other Regions 2885 3373 3167 3325 3825 -1.3 % 3.8 %
Global construction expenditures in real terms are projected to advance 3.8% per year
from 2020 to 2025. Despite the relatively modest gains expected for China, the Asia/Pacific
region will offer above average growth prospects. Countries in the region with moderately
low incomes – such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam – will enjoy
robust advances in construction activity as rising incomes support business expansion and
housing construction.
Figure 13 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)
The Africa/Mideast region will see above average gains to 2025. Migration from rural to
urban areas will spur residential construction in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
Economic development and rising incomes will encourage higher levels of household
consumption, inducing nonresidential building construction as businesses seek to provide
goods and services to consumers. Preparations for the FIFA World Cup in 2022 will boost
construction activity in Qatar. As a result, increases in construction spending in the
Africa/Mideast region are expected to register at 4.3% yearly through 2025.
Eastern Europe and Central and South America are expected to enjoy significantly better
performances in the construction sector through 2025 compared to the 2015-2020 period.
Both regions saw a sluggish performance during the 2015-2020 period, with weak
economies in Brazil and Russia contributing to lackluster construction activity in their
respective regions.
In North America, construction spending in both Canada and Mexico is projected to rise
after sluggish performances from 2015 to 2020. Those trends will offset a deceleration in
US construction activity to 2025.
Regional Segmentation & Forecasts
North America
Figure 14 | North America GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 6 | North America: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
North America GDP (2019US$ bil) 21250 23820 24880 25750 28040 0.9 % 2.4 %
US 17514 19570 20660 21360 23240 1.1 % 2.4 %
Mexico 2133 2467 2380 2470 2700 -0.7 % 2.6 %
Canada 1603 1783 1840 1920 2100 0.6 % 2.7 %
North America Per Capita GDP (2019US$) 46450 49800 50110 51500 54500 0.1 % 1.7 %
US 56620 61040 62610 64360 68290 0.5 % 1.8 %
Mexico 18690 20250 18490 19000 20040 -1.8 % 1.6 %
Canada 47010 49670 48680 50390 53160 -0.4 % 1.8 %
North America is projected to see real GDP growth of 2.4% yearly from 2020 to 2025. The
US is forecast to continue to dominate the region’s economy, representing an 83% share in
2025. Mexico’s level of real GDP per capita continues to register at less than half the
region’s average. Mexico’s average incomes are expected to remain below that of the US
and Canada, despite close proximity, trade relations, and supply-chain integration with
many major industries (e.g., appliances and motor vehicle manufacturing) in these higher-
income countries. In part, faster economic gains in Mexico are hindered by the presence of
large multinational corporations in the US and Canada that supply Mexico with various
goods (e.g., food, petroleum, transport equipment) and services (e.g., air travel, banking,
and insurance).
Figure 15 | North America: Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$)
The prospects for economic growth are fairly mild in North America. In large part, growth
potential is limited as the vast majority of the region’s economic activity is accounted for by
two high-income countries (i.e., the US and Canada) with mature economies and an upper-
middle income country (Mexico). In addition, the region’s population growth is forecast to
continue expanding at a relatively low rate, limiting the prospects for stronger gains in the
labor force and resulting economic output. Nevertheless, Mexico’s construction

expenditures in real terms are projected to significantly outpace the regional average to
2025 as the country rebounds from losses from the 2015-2020 period, particularly the
15% drop the country’s construction sector suffered in 2020. Mexico’s lower wages
compared to its North American counterparts are expected to:
• continue to retain or attract manufacturing facilities operated by companies

that supply the US and Canada
• prompt firms that want to move production closer to the US market to
choose Mexico
The US, Canada, and Mexico signed a new trade deal in November 2018 – referred to as
USMCA – to replace NAFTA. It was revised in December 2019, and it took effect in July
2020. Among other items, the deal requires a higher proportion of motor vehicles to be
assembled with parts made in North America and mandates that automakers manufacture
cars in facilities where assembly workers earn at least US$16 per hour to avoid tariffs.
Table 7 | North America: Key Economic Indicators by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
North America PCE 13980 15690 16540 17220 18710 1.1 % 2.5 %
US 11692 13110 13950 14534 15730 1.2 % 2.4 %
Mexico 1380 1559 1540 1581 1730 -0.2 % 2.4 %
Canada 908 1021 1050 1105 1250 0.6 % 3.5 %
North America MVA 2654 2844 2805 2907 3185 -0.3 % 2.6 %
US 2081 2195 2185 2260 2475 -0.1 % 2.5 %
Mexico 398 458 436 454 498 -1.0 % 2.7 %
Canada 175 191 184 193 212 -0.7 % 2.9 %
North America Construction Expenditures 1962.0 2311.0 2315.0 2372.0 2480.0 0.0 % 1.4 %
US 1394.0 1704.0 1800.0 1835.0 1880.0 1.1 % 0.9 %
Mexico 325.1 336.2 264.5 277.0 314.0 -4.7 % 3.5 %
Canada 242.9 270.8 250.5 260.0 286.0 -1.5 % 2.7 %
Western Europe
Figure 16 | Western Europe: GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 8 | Western Europe: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Western Europe GDP (2019US$ bil) 19420 20350 20140 21050 22930 -0.2 % 2.6 %
Germany 4073 4426 4470 4645 5020 0.2 % 2.3 %
France 2976 3131 3035 3220 3525 -0.6 % 3.0 %
United Kingdom 2807 3101 2950 3080 3385 -1.0 % 2.8 %
Italy 2688 2598 2450 2580 2770 -1.2 % 2.5 %
Spain 1830 1828 1785 1890 2095 -0.5 % 3.3 %
Other Countries 5046 5266 5450 5635 6135 0.7 % 2.4 %
Western Europe Per Capita GDP (2019US$) 47300 48660 47530 49610 53700 -0.5 % 2.5 %
Germany 50220 54310 54180 56300 61140 0.0 % 2.4 %
France 46940 48240 46190 48940 53010 -0.9 % 2.8 %
United Kingdom 44700 47710 44100 45830 49490 -1.6 % 2.3 %
Italy 44950 42590 40360 42570 45860 -1.1 % 2.6 %
Spain 39270 39140 38140 40380 44760 -0.5 % 3.3 %
Real GDP in Western Europe is projected to rise 2.6% annually from 2020 to 2025,
representing one of the slowest regional growth rates, a continuation of historical trends.
Western Europe faces competition from suppliers in China and Eastern Europe in a number
of industries, while fiscal restraint among member countries – partly due to the structure
of the European Union (EU) – has limited the potential for government stimulus.
The UK’s exit from the EU in January 2020 created economic uncertainty in the region and
weighed on growth. Some firms, particularly manufacturers and financial services firms,
have withdrawn or plan to withdraw from the UK and locate elsewhere in Europe because
the UK was often used as a base by multinational firms to serve various European
countries. The lack of a free trade zone with the EU limits the incentive to locate facilities
serving the EU market in the UK. Nevertheless, the UK features the third-highest per capita
income levels in Western Europe and is the second most populous country in the region,
with a population of 66.9 million in 2020. Therefore, firms need to maintain a presence in
the UK due to its status as a high-income economy with a large population, presenting
substantial sales opportunities for firms that serve this market.
Figure 17 | Western Europe: Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$)
Per capita GDP is forecast to advance at a 2.5% yearly rate to 2025. Western Europe is
projected to see per capita GDP growth after a poor performance over the 2015-2020
period, in part caused by the ongoing debt crisis in EU countries following the 2009 global
recession. In particular, Italy’s economy has faced recurring issues in part due to regional
and global economic headwinds, but also due to its own structural issues, such as the
prevalence of smaller, family-owned businesses (also known as small and medium-sized
enterprises or SMEs) that are hard to grow into large enterprises featuring large economies
of scale. In addition, Italy features a complex regulatory environment, sometimes going
beyond basic EU laws and regulations, which causes a lack of clarity regarding the
regulatory environment and the nature of enforcement and limits business expansion.
Table 9 | Western Europe: Key Economic Indicators by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Western Europe PCE 10810 11140 10830 11390 12140 -0.6 % 2.3 %
Germany 2156 2309 2328 2429 2540 0.2 % 1.8 %
France 1648 1700 1674 1780 1870 -0.3 % 2.2 %
United Kingdom 1714 1895 1751 1830 1995 -1.6 % 2.6 %
Italy 1630 1564 1455 1544 1655 -1.4 % 2.6 %
Spain 1114 1068 1014 1083 1185 -1.0 % 3.2 %
Other Countries 2548 2604 2608 2724 2895 0.0 % 2.1 %
Western Europe MVA 2835 2991 2890 3038 3355 -0.7 % 3.0 %
Germany 842 952 880 926 1040 -1.6 % 3.4 %
France 336 356 323 344 373 -1.9 % 2.9 %
United Kingdom 307 314 281 295 324 -2.2 % 2.9 %
Italy 421 417 392 418 463 -1.2 % 3.4 %
Spain 239 225 227 239 258 0.2 % 2.6 %
Other Countries 690 727 787 816 897 1.6 % 2.7 %
Western Europe Construction Expenditures 2157.0 2053.0 2168.0 2273.0 2450.0 1.1 % 2.5 %
Germany 425.7 459.9 519.0 521.7 538.5 2.4 % 0.7 %
France 383.3 372.4 369.0 404.5 439.0 -0.2 % 3.5 %
United Kingdom 305.8 311.5 303.0 321.2 361.5 -0.6 % 3.6 %
Italy 280.7 206.1 198.7 216.6 237.6 -0.7 % 3.6 %
Spain 222.2 166.8 173.4 190.9 217.3 0.8 % 4.6 %
Other Countries 539.3 536.3 604.9 618.1 656.1 2.4 % 1.6 %
The economy of Western Europe suffered a period of slow growth following the 2009
global recession, although some countries in the region fared relatively better. Spain
experienced the bursting of a large housing bubble and strong declines in construction
spending during the 2008-2013 period, and a recession during the 2009-2013 period. The
country’s construction sector continues to recover, benefiting the economy. Nevertheless,
the level of construction spending in Spain in 2025 is expected to register at 31% below the
cyclical 2007 peak, and 2.2% below 2010 levels – the highest amount of the 2010-2020
period.
A number of other countries in Western Europe, including Italy, also experienced a rapid
housing construction collapse around the time of the global 2009 recession. The recovery
to 2020 has largely been tepid due to various economic headwinds in the region, such as
relatively weak economic growth in Western Europe and strong competition from
manufacturers in Asia and Eastern Europe. Italy’s construction expenditures in real terms
in 2025 are expected to represent a 29% decline compared to the 2007 cyclical peak, and a
15% drop compared to 2010, the highest level of the 2010-2020 period.
Although all countries in Western Europe are considered high-income, significant variation
exists in per-capita GDP. For example, in 2025, real per-capita GDP in Germany is expected
to register at 37% above levels in Spain.
Asia/Pacific
Figure 18 | Asia/Pacific: GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 10 | Asia/Pacific: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Asia/Pacific GDP (2019US$ bil) 34950 45970 55120 58710 70520 3.7 % 5.1 %
China 12416 18193 24040 25980 31640 5.7 % 5.6 %
India 5380 7468 8760 9500 12060 3.2 % 6.6 %
Japan 5027 5297 5180 5325 5580 -0.4 % 1.5 %
Indonesia 2090 2735 3260 3415 4185 3.6 % 5.1 %
South Korea 1741 2023 2225 2295 2530 1.9 % 2.6 %
Other Countries 8296 10254 11655 12195 14525 2.6 % 4.5 %
Asia/Pacific Per Capita GDP (2019US$) 8960 11220 12890 13620 15910 2.8 % 4.3 %
China 9220 13180 17050 18370 22190 5.3 % 5.4 %
India 4410 5760 6410 6880 8420 2.2 % 5.6 %
Japan 39270 41640 41180 42500 45330 -0.2 % 1.9 %
Indonesia 8640 10590 11990 12450 14730 2.5 % 4.2 %
South Korea 35170 39740 43120 44480 48840 1.6 % 2.5 %
Real GDP in the Asia/Pacific region is projected to rise 5.1% annually from 2020 to 2025,
continuing to outpace the other major regions of the world by a significant margin. Notably,
economic gains in India are projected to outpace growth in China. India features higher
potential for growth as it exhibits a much lower level of economic development compared
to China, as evidenced by a 2020 per capita GDP level of less than half that of China’s per
capita GDP.
Figure 19 | Asia/Pacific: Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$)
The region’s expected gains to 2025 are primarily due to the large and fast-growing
economies of China, India, and Indonesia, as well as the smaller, but rapidly expanding
economies of Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Reasons for the fast gains in these
countries include factors such as export-led growth stemming from efforts to attract
manufacturers due to lower regional wages, investment in infrastructure, and ongoing
above average population growth. Population growth boosts the size of the labor force and
expands demand for items like housing and consumer goods. Furthermore, countries such
as India, the Philippines, and Vietnam featured per capita incomes well below the regional
average, allowing them to continue expanding at strong rates by investing in infrastructure
and adopting policies friendly to manufacturing and construction activity. Furthermore,

Vietnam and other lower-income countries in the region are expected to benefit from the
ongoing trade acrimony between the US and China that started in 2018, as some
manufacturers moved to Vietnam to avoid tariffs and the rising wage rates in China. In
large part, the trade acrimony between the US and China is motivated by:
• ongoing concerns regarding the trade deficit and the deterioration of US-
based supply chains for key products, particularly medical and technology
items, and it might hurt the US to become increasingly reliant on foreign
supply chains, particularly during emergencies or international disputes
• growing concerns that Chinese industry is rapidly advancing technologically
in sectors such as computer chips, electric car batteries, and electric motor
vehicles, and if the US falls behind it could damage the economy
• concerns by US corporations that Chinese enterprises are using the
technology and know-how gained from partnerships with US corporations
operating in China to gain share in the Chinese market while US firms lose
market share or stagnate
As low-income countries reach middle-income status, sustaining a rapid growth rate

becomes more difficult because the easy avenues for stimulating the economy have already
been exhausted. For instance, China’s rate of real GDP growth is projected to slow to 5.6%
per annum to 2025 compared to 7.9% annually from 2010 to 2015. On the other hand,
India – a country with less than half the per capita income level of China – is forecast to see
real GDP gains of 6.6% yearly to 2025.
The high-income countries of Japan and South Korea are projected to see slow gains in
consumer spending, manufacturing, and construction activity, while the lower- and middle-
income countries of the region are forecast to continue expanding these sectors at rapid
rates. Notably, PCE in India is expected to rise 7.1% annually in real terms through 2025, as
consumer continue to crave the products purchased by individuals in high-income
economies.
A slowdown in the region’s construction spending is expected to continue to 2025. In real

terms, construction expenditures in the Asia/Pacific region surged 7.9% per year between
2010 and 2015, driven by the 12% annual growth in China. The country embarked on
substantial construction drive to build infrastructure such as roads, rail, and airports. In
addition, the growth in manufacturing required building factories and the rural
population’s move to the cities required new housing and retail stores. However, real
construction spending growth in China is projected to register below the regional average
to 2025 as its needs for buildings and infrastructure have been satisfied to some extent. On
the other hand, India is forecast to see the fastest gains in construction activity among the
major countries in the region, with an expected growth rate of 9.1% per year to 2025,
nearly double the regional average.
Table 11 | Asia/Pacific: Key Economic Indicators by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Asia/Pacific PCE 17250 22690 26750 28440 34550 3.3 % 5.3 %

China 4491 6930 9150 9915 12190 5.7 % 5.9 %
India 3144 4356 5087 5505 7170 3.2 % 7.1 %
Japan 2806 2891 2733 2818 3045 -1.1 % 2.2 %
Indonesia 1227 1584 1878 1961 2445 3.5 % 5.4 %
South Korea 892 990 1041 1076 1175 1.0 % 2.5 %
Other Countries 4690 5939 6861 7165 8525 2.9 % 4.4 %
Asia/Pacific MVA 7431 9770 11740 12360 14660 3.7 % 4.5 %

China 3276 4706 6180 6499 7680 5.6 % 4.4 %
India 739 1059 1210 1321 1715 2.7 % 7.2 %
Japan 1057 1129 1030 1072 1165 -1.8 % 2.5 %
Indonesia 443 567 642 674 832 2.5 % 5.3 %
South Korea 469 541 594 611 670 1.9 % 2.4 %
Other Countries 1447 1768 2084 2183 2598 3.3 % 4.5 %
Asia/Pacific Construction Expenditures 5886.0 8603.0 9420.0 10060.0 11845.0 1.8 % 4.7 %
China 2936.0 5066.0 5565.0 5951.0 6820.0 1.9 % 4.2 %
India 782.0 923.0 987.0 1100.0 1528.0 1.3 % 9.1 %
Japan 526.0 588.0 605.0 612.0 618.5 0.6 % 0.4 %
Indonesia 340.8 466.9 557.5 590.0 734.0 3.6 % 5.7 %
South Korea 294.5 292.0 329.5 339.4 373.0 2.4 % 2.5 %
Other Countries 1006.7 1267.1 1376.0 1467.6 1771.5 1.7 % 5.2 %
Other Regions
Figure 20 | Other Regions: GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ tril)
Table 12 | Other Regions: GDP & Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Other Regions GDP (2019US$ bil) 25680 29250 29710 30750 34810 0.3 % 3.2 %
Central & South America 7139 7945 7265 7565 8485 -1.8 % 3.2 %
Eastern Europe 7381 8065 8525 8805 9785 1.1 % 2.8 %
Africa/Mideast 11160 13240 13920 14380 16540 1.0 % 3.5 %
Other Regions Per Capita GDP (2019US$) 11958 12485 11678 11886 12631 -1.3 % 1.6 %
Eastern Europe 22640 24860 26520 27470 30820 1.3 % 3.1 %
Africa/Mideast 8300 8730 8190 8260 8730 -1.3 % 1.3 %
Other regions – encompassing Central and South America, Eastern Europe, and
Africa/Mideast – are forecast to see real GDP growth of 3.2% annually from 2020 to 2025.
The Africa/Mideast region is projected to undergo the fastest real GDP gains to 2025, as it
is the least industrialized and is expected to see the fastest population growth. The region
is projected to see population growth of 2.2% yearly to 2025, more than double the global
average of 1.0% per year. However, per capita income is forecast to remain the lowest in
the world as the region faces ongoing challenges with economic development.
Figure 21 | Other Regions: Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$)
Table 13 | Other Regions: Key Economic Indicators by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)
CAGR CAGR
Item 2010 2015 2020 2021 2025 15-20 20-25
Other Regions PCE 14630 17010 17200 17850 20350 0.2 % 3.4 %
Eastern Europe 3920 4265 4391 4541 5195 0.6 % 3.4 %
Africa/Mideast 6197 7580 8040 8317 9610 1.2 % 3.6 %
Other Regions MVA 3380 3845 3915 4055 4600 0.4 % 3.3 %
Eastern Europe 1061 1211 1310 1366 1560 1.6 % 3.6 %
Africa/Mideast 1297 1613 1725 1775 2035 1.4 % 3.4 %
Other Regions Construction Expenditures 2885.0 3373.0 3167.0 3325.0 3825.0 -1.3 % 3.8 %
Central & South America 862.6 948.8 711.0 753.2 881.0 -5.6 % 4.4 %
Eastern Europe 752.4 761.2 803.0 824.8 903.0 1.1 % 2.4 %
Africa/Mideast 1270.0 1663.0 1653.0 1747.0 2041.0 -0.1 % 4.3 %
Central & South America

Brazil represents the largest economy in Central and South America, accounting for 42% of
regional GDP in 2020, followed by Argentina, with a 13% share. Real GDP growth in Brazil
is projected to register at 2.5% annually to 2025, representing an improvement over the
2015-2020 declines. Brazil’s economy is dependent on global commodity prices, as the
country is a major producer and exporter of commodities such as food and farm products,
metals, and oil. The collapse in commodity prices hurt Brazil’s economy over the 2015-
2020 period. Preventing faster economic growth in Brazil are structural factors, such as
poor infrastructure and a complex tax and regulatory regime. In addition, Argentina
continues to face considerable inflation, limiting the country’s economic prospects. Peru is
projected to represent the fastest growing economy among major countries in the region,
with expected gains of 5.1% per year to 2025.
Over the 2010-2020 period, Venezuela’s economy suffered a significant deterioration. GDP
dropped 63% between 2010 and 2019, and fell a further 29% in 2020. Per capita income
fell to the lowest level in the region, representing 47% of the regional average in 2019, 36%
in 2020, and a projected 35% in 2025. Venezuela’s problems stem from numerous issues,
including political instability and falling oil prices, which hurt its economy and government
budget. In addition, the country is facing hyperinflation and a shortage of goods.
Geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the crisis, as the US has imposed various
economic sanctions on the country.
Eastern Europe
Russia is Eastern Europe’s largest economy by far, representing 48% of the region’s GDP in
2020, followed by Poland at 15%. The region is expected to experience an ongoing slight
decline in population to 2025, in large part due to residents migrating to regions with
higher living standards, such as Western Europe and North America.
Russia’s real GDP is projected to rise 2.2% annually to 2025, representing the slowest
growth among major countries in the region. Russia’s economy is suffering from low oil
prices – as the country is a large oil producer and oil revenues help finance the
government’s budget – and from geopolitical tensions, such as various economic sanctions
by the US and some European countries. One of the smaller economies in the region –
Slovakia – is projected to see the fastest gains among major countries in Eastern Europe,
increasing 3.9% annually to 2025.
Africa/Mideast
Turkey, the region’s largest economy, is forecast to undergo real GDP growth of 3.8%
annually to 2025. The country’s ongoing economic success led real per capita incomes in
2019 to register at 44% above 2010 levels. However, Turkey is facing economic headwinds
due to geopolitical tensions, a corporate debt crisis, and a currency and inflation problem
that are expected to prevent faster gains.
Nigeria, the most populous country in the region with 208.1 million people in 2020, is
projected to see population growth of 2.5% annually to 2025, which will help boost the
economy due to labor force growth. The country is projected to see real GDP growth of
2.8% yearly to 2025. However, Nigeria’s per capita GDP is expected to see only marginal
gains.
About This Report
Scope
This report forecasts to 2021 and 2025 global population and the following global
macroeconomic indicators in real (inflation-adjusted) US dollars:
• gross domestic product (GDP)
• per capita GDP
• personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
• manufacturing value added (MVA)
• construction expenditures
Forecasts for population and each macroeconomic indicator are also provided by region in
terms of:
• North America
• Western Europe
• Asia/Pacific
• other regions, spanning Central and South America, Eastern Europe, and
Africa/Mideast
In addition, for the three main regions, each macroeconomic indicator is forecast for the
countries with the largest economies within that region.
To illustrate historical trends, world, region, and major country indicators are provided for
2010, 2015, and 2020.
All estimates of gross domestic product and components of GDP are made in terms of
constant purchasing power parity in a benchmark year (2019) that is one year before the
base year (2020) used in this report. Purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the
benchmark year are obtained from the OECD, Eurostat, the World Bank, the International
Monetary Fund, the US Central Intelligence Agency, and selected other sources. These
purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the benchmark year are based on gross
domestic product data expressed in the individual countries’ local currency, which are then
converted to US dollars by valuing each country’s output at US prices in the benchmark
year. This approach values the same physical output at a consistent price for all countries,
thereby reducing the distorting influence of different price levels in the different countries.
The alternative approach of using exchange rates to convert local currency GDP to US
dollars would tend to overvalue the output of countries with high average price levels and
undervalue the output of countries with low average price levels, because exchange rate
conversions only partially reflect the relative prices for goods and services that are
domestically consumed and invested. Furthermore, factors other than relative prices – such
About This Report
as demand and supply in currency markets, interest rates, and capital flows – affect
exchange rates.
Once the GDP values for a country are estimated for the benchmark year, we then calculate
inflation-adjusted GDP for all other years for that country based on historical and forecast
growth rates of GDP expressed in inflation-adjusted units of that country’s local currency.
This approach ensures that the GDP series for any given country is an accurate index of
changes in inflation-adjusted GDP for that country. However, it also implicitly assumes that
the price structures across countries do not change from those of the benchmark year.
Therefore, caution should be used in comparing the relative GDP of countries in years other
than the benchmark year. If the ratio of prices across two countries in a given year differs
from the ratio of prices across those countries in the benchmark year, then the change in
the relative sizes of those two economies as measured will not accurately reflect changes in
output.
The benchmark year is chosen to be one year prior to the base year for the report for
reasons of data availability. One benefit of that choice is that the ratio of prices across
countries in the base year is usually similar to that in the benchmark year. Therefore, the
ratio of real GDP between two countries in the base year of 2020 is generally a reasonably
accurate representation of the relative sizes of their economies.
A full outline of report items by page is available in the Table of Contents.
Sources
Global Macroeconomy (FW95051) represents the synthesis and analysis of data from
various secondary, macroeconomic, and demographic sources, such as:
• firms, and their suppliers and customers
• government/public agencies
• intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations
• trade associations and their publications
• the business and trade press
• indicator forecasts by The Freedonia Group
• the findings of other reports and studies by The Freedonia Group
Specific sources and additional resources are listed in the Resources section of this
publication for reference and to facilitate further research.
Freedonia Methodology
The Freedonia Group, a subsidiary of MarketResearch.com, has been in business for more
than 30 years and in that time has developed a comprehensive approach to data analysis
About This Report
that takes into account the variety of industries covered and the evolving needs of our
customers.
Every industry presents different challenges in market sizing and forecasting, and this
requires flexibility in methodology and approach. Freedonia methodology integrates a
variety of quantitative and qualitative techniques to present the best overall picture of a
market’s current position as well as its future outlook: When published data are available,
we make sure they are correct and representative of reality. We understand that published
data often have flaws either in scope or quality, and adjustments are made accordingly.
Where no data are available, we use various methodologies to develop market sizing (both
top-down and bottom-up) and then triangulate those results to come up with the most
accurate data series possible. Regardless of approach, we also talk to industry participants
to verify both historical perspective and future growth opportunities.
Methods used in the preparation of Freedonia market research include, but are not limited
to, the following activities: comprehensive data mining and evaluation, primary research,
consensus forecasting and analysis, ratio analysis using key indicators, regression analysis,
end use growth indices and intensity factors, purchase power parity adjustments for global
data, consumer and end user surveys, market share and corporate sales analysis, product
lifespan analysis, product or market life cycle analysis, graphical data modeling, long-term
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Freedonia quantifies trends in various measures of growth and volatility. Growth (or
decline) expressed as an average annual growth rate (AAGR) is the least squares growth
rate, which takes into account all available datapoints over a period. The volatility of
datapoints around a least squares growth trend over time is expressed via the coefficient of
determination, or r2. The most stable data series relative to the trend carries an r2 value of
1.0; the most volatile – 0.0. Growth calculated as a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
employs, by definition, only the first and last datapoints over a period. The CAGR is used to
describe forecast growth, defined as the expected trend beginning in the base year and
ending in the forecast year. Readers are encouraged to consider historical volatility when
assessing particular annual values along the forecast trend, including in the forecast year.
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About This Report
Resources
The Freedonia Group
Freedonia Industry Studies
Global Cement
Global Flooring
Global Forestry Equipment
Global Housing
Global Insulation
Global Lubricants
Global Plumbing Products
Global Power Tools
Global Prefabricated Housing
Freedonia Focus Reports
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Construction: United States
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Global Demographics
Global Housing
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Housing: United States
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Freedonia Custom Research
Agencies & Associations

Eurostat
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
United Nations
United States Bureau of Economic Analysis
United States Census Bureau
United States Central Intelligence Agency
World Bank
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Freedonia Focus Reports

2. Global Overview & Forecasts 5

3. Regional Segmentation & Forecasts 19

4. About This Report 34

Figure 1 | Global GDP Outlook, 2020 – 2025

Source: The Freedonia Group

• Global personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are expected to rise 3.8%

the fastest growth in personal consumption expenditures, with increases of

• Global construction expenditures in real terms are projected to advance

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Figure 3 | Global GDP Growth, 2010 – 2021 (year-on-year % change)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Figure 4 | Global Per Capita GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Figure 5 | Global GDP by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Table 2 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (mil persons)

Global Population 6918.0 7335.0 7740.0 7820.0 8130.0 1.1 % 1.0 %

Note: Segments may not add to total due to independent rounding.

Figure 7 | Global Population by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Source: The Freedonia Group

Global PCE 56670 66530 71320 74900 85750 1.4 % 3.8 %

Source: The Freedonia Group

Many residents in underdeveloped countries and some in developing countries only

Figure 9 | Global Personal Consumption Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Manufacturing Value Added

Source: The Freedonia Group

Global MVA 16300 19450 21350 22360 25800 1.9 % 3.9 %

Source: The Freedonia Group

such as Vietnam, as well as from Mexico as a manufacturing base for

Figure 11 | Global Manufacturing Value Added by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Notably, motor vehicle production – a major manufacturing sector – is undergoing changes

Source: The Freedonia Group

Table 5 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$ bil)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Figure 13 | Global Construction Expenditures by Region, 2010 – 2025 (%)

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

labor force and resulting economic output. Nevertheless, Mexico’s construction

• continue to retain or attract manufacturing facilities operated by companies

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Source: The Freedonia Group

Figure 19 | Asia/Pacific: Per Capita GDP by Country, 2010 – 2025 (2019US$)

Source: The Freedonia Group

and adopting policies friendly to manufacturing and construction activity. Furthermore,

As low-income countries reach middle-income status, sustaining a rapid growth rate

A slowdown in the region’s construction spending is expected to continue to 2025. In real