The Impact of Drought in South Africa

THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT IN SOUTH AFRICA
INTRODUCTON AND HYPOTHESIS

A drought is a prolonged period with less than average amounts of rain; it is a
shortage of water supply whether atmospheric, surface water or ground water. A
drought can last for months or years, or may be declared after a few 15 days.
It can have a substantial impact on the ecosystem and agriculture of the affected
region and harm to the local economy. Annual dry seasons in the tropics
significantly increase the chances of a drought developing and subsequent bush
fires. Periods of heat can significantly worsen drought conditions by hastening
evaporation of water vapour.
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A farmer sitting on a water tank he uses to supply his livestock. Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko
El Niño threatens southern Africa

with yet another drought
Published: November 11, 2015 8.52pm SAST
Author
1. Mathieu Rouault
Associate Professor in Oceanography, University of Cape Town
Disclosure statement
Mathieu Rouault receives funding from ACCESS, Water Research Commission, NRF (South Africa), Nansen Tutu Center and the EU
FP7/2007–2013 under Grant Agreement No. 603521. Mathieu Rouault is affiliated with SASAS, AGU, AMS, CLIVAR.
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University of Cape Town provides funding as a partner of The Conversation AFRICA.
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Technology, Rhodes University, Stellenbosch University and the Universities of Cape Town, Johannesburg, Kwa-Zulu Natal, Pretoria,
and South Africa. It is hosted by the Universities of the Witwatersrand and Western Cape, the African Population and Health Research
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Southern Africa is in for a bumpy, dry ride. There is a 50% chance of a drought
occurring this summer that could have an impact on the whole region which
still bears the effect of last year’s drought. Any new drought will have a
compounding effect.
During the 2014-15 southern hemisphere summer southern Africa suffered

one of the worst-ever droughts. This severely affected the agricultural sector as
well as the economies of the countries in the region. In addition, the drought
seriously depleted water reserves.
The current drought in the region is as a result of a powerful El Niño event. El

Niño is a natural and periodic phenomenon that comes back every three to
five years and can last for up to two years. It increases temperatures in the
Pacific and Indian Ocean which in turn can cause drought conditions.
During 2015 the Pacific became even warmer leading to one of the strongest El
Niño events ever observed. Research shows that eight of the ten strongest
droughts in southern Africa since 1900 occurred during the mature phase of
El Niño. It has also been noted that El Niño events have led to a severe
drought half of the time they occurred.
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The effect of El Niño on droughts has been exacerbated over the past 50 years.
This has been because continental and oceanic temperatures have risen
globally but not uniformly during due to the increase in carbon dioxide.
El Niño events leading to droughts in the region have been particularly

marked since the late 1970s. Most have occurred between December and
March. Recent studies show that El Niño has affected summer rainfall with
increased dry spells, reductions in the flux of moisture from the Indian Ocean
to the continent, and by shifting large scale rain bearing systems to the Indian
Ocean.
Successive droughts over the last century

Over the last century, southern Africa has suffered from dramatic year-on-year
changes in climate leading to severe droughts and disturbance in the marine
or terrestrial ecosystems. Such variability of climate affects the agricultural
industry, water reserves, fisheries and as a result the broader economy. It also
affects the flow of water in streams, vegetation and the fluxes of nutrients into
the ocean.
It has a particularly detrimental effect on:
 rural subsistence farmers and fishermen;
 the health of people in rural areas; and
 the management of a sustainable natural environment.
During the last decades research projects have shed a great deal of light on
how the oceans can influence the climate of southern Africa. But more
research is needed to find out the effects of El Niño. Two critical questions in
particular need to be answered:
1. why does El Niño sometimes not lead to drought; and
2. why a weak El Niño can trigger a severe drought while a strong El Nino can
trigger a less severe drought.
In addition, more information needs to be gathered on how natural climate

events such as El Niño and climate change interact. And there is a serious
need to improve our understanding of the impact these large scale variations
have on smaller scales. We must also keep in mind that describing the nature
of climate variability’s impact is essential to being able to anticipate future
climate changes and the need to define adaptation strategies.
Given that El Niño does not result in a drought 100% of the time, it is
important to establish what measures should be taken in the case of a risk of
drought. This would enable countries to prepare for major disturbances which
are increasing in frequency as a result of climate change.
El Niño could have dramatic consequences for southern Africa. Food shortage,
famine, unrest, economic hardship and further decrease of the gross
national product. Hopefully the region will not be hit as hard as it was in
the 1997-98 El Niño effect. But we shouldn’t gamble on that.
It is imperative for countries, and individual citizens, to take preventive

measures for what is now known to be a recurring pattern in southern Africa.
This includes selling cattle, restricting water, fixing leaks, planting drought
resistant crops and getting ready for a drought.
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A farmer sitting on a water tank he uses to supply his livestock. Reuters/Siphiwe
Sibeko
El Niño threatens southern Africa with yet another drought
Published: November 11, 2015 8.52pm SAST
Author
The effect of El Niño on droughts has been exacerbated over the past 50 years.
This has been because continental and oceanic temperatures have risen globally but
not uniformly during due to the increase in carbon dioxide.
El Niño events leading to droughts in the region have been particularly marked
since the late 1970s. Most have occurred between December and March. Recent
studies show that El Niño has affected summer rainfall with increased dry spells,
reductions in the flux of moisture from the Indian Ocean to the continent, and by
shifting large scale rain bearing systems to the Indian Ocean.
Given that El Niño does not result in a drought 100% of the time, it is important to
establish what measures should be taken in the case of a risk of drought. This
would enable countries to prepare for major disturbances which are increasing in
frequency as a result of climate change.
El Niño could have dramatic consequences for southern Africa. Food shortage,
famine, unrest, economic hardship and further decrease of the gross
national product. Hopefully the region will not be hit as hard as it was in the 1997-
98 El Niño effect. But we shouldn’t gamble on that.
It is imperative for countries, and individual citizens, to take preventive measures
for what is now known to be a recurring pattern in southern Africa. This includes
selling cattle, restricting water, fixing leaks, planting drought resistant crops and
getting ready for a drought.
SUMMARY
The current drought is caused by El Nino event. The drought suffered over the last
century caused by climate change has lead to the disturbance in the marine life or
terrestrial ecosystem. Has a detrimental effect on :
Rural subsistence farmer and fishermen
People health in the rural areas
The management of the natural environment
El Nino has dramatic consequences for South Africa such as food shortages ,
economic hardship and further decrease of the gross national product
Causes of droughts
Dry season :- Droughts are commonly in areas experiencing long ,dry seasons .
since humidity levels are low during these seasons , water evaporation rates are
high. As a result water bodies like lakes and rivers dry up nearly completely.
Vegetation cover and agricultural crops dependent on these water bodies also die
due to the absence of water. Higher temperature during the dry season further
promote the evaporation of water and thus worsen the drought.
Low levels of precipitation:- Little or no precipitation is one of the major causes of

a drought .Lower than average levels of rainfall over a sustained period of time can
lead to crop failures. Meteorological disturbances like extremely high temperatures
and changes in wind patterns can lead to lower than normal rainfall in an area.
Droughts are usually common in places where normal levels of rainfall are
generally low , making them more susceptible to changes in precipitation patterns

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THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT IN SOUTH AFRICA

INTRODUCTON AND HYPOTHESIS

El Niño threatens southern Africa

University of Cape Town provides funding as a partner of The Conversation AFRICA.

We believe in the free flow of information

Republish this article

During the 2014-15 southern hemisphere summer southern Africa suffered

The current drought in the region is as a result of a powerful El Niño event. El

El Niño events leading to droughts in the region have been particularly

Successive droughts over the last century

It has a particularly detrimental effect on:

 rural subsistence farmers and fishermen;

 the health of people in rural areas; and

 the management of a sustainable natural environment.

1. why does El Niño sometimes not lead to drought; and

In addition, more information needs to be gathered on how natural climate

It is imperative for countries, and individual citizens, to take preventive

Low levels of precipitation:- Little or no precipitation is one of the major causes of

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