ENSO: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Predictions

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
6 March 2023
Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
La Niña is present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of
the Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña.
ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of
months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early
summer.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)

Negative SST anomalies have gradually

weakened across most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean since at least
December 2022. Since late January
2023, positive SST anomalies have
emerged in the eastern equatorial
Pacific.
Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution

The latest weekly

SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.1ºC
SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks
In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were below average across the central
Pacific Ocean and above average in the eastern Pacific.

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30
 Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were below average across the central Pacific Ocean
and in the eastern Indian Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were above average in the far western and
eastern Pacific and in the central Atlantic Ocean.

30
26
30
Weekly SST Departures
during the Last Four
Weeks

During the last 4 weeks, negative SST

anomalies weakened across most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive SST
anomalies emerged in the eastern Pacific.
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, positive SST changes were evident across most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific

The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)

heat content is greatest prior to and during the
early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels), and least prior to and
during the early stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.

The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least

(greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.

Recent values of the upper-ocean heat

anomalies (slightly above average) and
thermocline slope index (above average) reflect
La Niña weakening and a potential transition to
ENSO-neutral.
The monthly thermocline slope index represents the
difference in anomalous depth of the 20ºC isotherm
between the western Pacific (160ºE-150ºW) and the
eastern Pacific (90º-140ºW).
 Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies
Subsurface temperature anomalies were negative until June 2022, before becoming briefly
positive. From late June 2022 to late January 2023, anomalies were negative. From November
2022 to mid-February 2023, negative anomalies weakened and returned to near zero. Since
then, anomalies have become positive.
 Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific
Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have
expanded eastward, remaining mostly at depth,
except near the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Most recent pentad analysis

Negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened

across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but weak
anomalies continue to reside in small areas near the
surface.
 Tropical OLR and Wind
Anomalies During the Last
30 Days
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection
and precipitation) were located over the central
tropical Pacific Ocean. Negative OLR anomalies
(enhanced convection and precipitation) were
observed near the Philippines and over Indonesia.

Low-level (850-hPa) easterly wind anomalies

were ev ident across the central equatorial
Pacific Ocean.

Upper-level (200-hPa) westerly wind

C
anomalies were observed across the central
and east-central equatorial Pacific, with
anomalous cyclones on either side of the C
equator.
Intraseasonal Variability

Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.

Related to this activity:

Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-
propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
 Weekly Heat Content
Evolution in the Equatorial
Pacific
Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity
(dashed and dotted lines) has been present
throughout the period shown.

From August through October, following an

upwelling Kelvin wave, negative subsurface
temperature anomalies were stationary in the
eastern Pacific Ocean.

During late December 2022 and January 2023,

negative anomalies strengthened in the east-
central Pacific Ocean.

Downwelling Kelvin waves were ev ident during

late November/December 2022 and then again in
January-February 2023.
Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have
alternating warm and cold phases. The warm
phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-
welling and warming occur in the leading
portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and
cooling occur in the trailing portion.
 Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
At times, the Madden Julian-Oscillation
(MJO) has contributed to the eastward
propagation of low-level wind anomalies.
Since the beginning of the period,
easterly wind anomalies have generally
dominated over the central and east-
central Pacific, except for breaks during
early September 2022, early and late
November 2022, and mid-December
2022.
Since mid-February 2023, westerly wind
anomalies were evident across the
western Pacific Ocean.

Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)

Easterly Wind Anomalies (blue shading)
 Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies

During most of the period, anomalous

divergence (green shading) generally
remained near Indonesia, while
anomalous convergence (brown shading)
persisted over the central and/or eastern
Pacific Ocean.

Since mid-December 2022, eastward

propagation of anomalies has been
evident.

Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)

Favorable for precipitation (green shading)

Note: Eastward propagation is not necessarily indicative of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
 Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies

Since the beginning of the period, positive

OLR anomalies were evident over the
western and/or central Pacific Ocean.
Negative OLR anomalies persisted over
Indonesia from late August 2022 through
November 2022.
Weak, negative OLR anomalies resumed in
early December 2022 and have persisted
near Indonesia and/or the far western
Pacific Ocean.

Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)

Wetter-than-average Conditions (blue shading)
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Huang et al., 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205.)

It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective.

Note: a different SST dataset is used for weekly SST monitoring (slides #4-9) and is
using OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021).
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,

these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
 ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950

The most recent ONI value

(December 2022 – February
2023) is -0.7ºC.

El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0

2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2

2013 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

2014 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7

2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6

2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6

2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0

2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8

2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5

2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2

2021 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0

2022 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8

2023 -0.7
 CPC Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 9 February 2023

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is very likely during the February-April 2023
season, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the Northern Hemisphere early summer
2023. During the summer, there is a chance of a transition to El Niño.
IRI Pacific Niño 3.4
SST Model Outlook

By February-April 2023, most

models indicate the return of
ENSO-neutral. By May-July, the
dynamical models suggest a
potential return to El Niño, while
the statistical models indicate the
continuation of ENSO-neutral
through the Northern Hemisphere
summer.

Figure prov ided by the International Research

Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 19 February 2023).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 6 March 2023

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates a transition to ENSO-
neutral is expected and may continue into the Northern Hemisphere early
summer, before potentially transitioning to El Niño.
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
During early January through mid-January, an
anomalous trough dominated the North Pacific
Ocean, along with an extended jet stream.
Downstream of the trough, above-average
heights and temperatures were ev ident.

Since mid-January, an anomalous ridge and

retracted jet stream were ev ident over the
North Pacific Ocean. A downstream anomalous
trough was associated with mostly below-
average temperatures over the western U.S.,
while above-average heights/temperatures
persisted over the eastern U.S.

1 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
During early January through mid-January, an
anomalous trough dominated the North Pacific
Ocean, along with an extended jet stream.
Downstream of the trough, above-average
heights and temperatures were ev ident.

Since mid-January, an anomalous ridge and

retracted jet stream were ev ident over the
North Pacific Ocean. A downstream anomalous
trough was associated with mostly below-
average temperatures over the western U.S.,
while above-average heights/temperatures
persisted over the eastern U.S.

2 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
During early January through mid-January, an
anomalous trough dominated the North Pacific
Ocean, along with an extended jet stream.
Downstream of the trough, above-average
heights and temperatures were ev ident.

Since mid-January, an anomalous ridge and

retracted jet stream were ev ident over the
North Pacific Ocean. A downstream anomalous
trough was associated with mostly below-
average temperatures over the western U.S.,
while above-average heights/temperatures
persisted over the eastern U.S.

3 of 3
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 30 Days

End Date: 4 March 2023

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

1 of 2
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 90 Days

End Date: 4 March 2023

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

2 of 2
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
March – May 2023

The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture,
and, when appropriate, ENSO.

Precipitation Temperature
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
La Niña is present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of
the Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña.
ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of
months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early
summer.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.