As a marketer, what I love most about my work is the way data and content

work together to influence people. For instance, it is no accident that you

are reading this e-book. I wrote it for you - or someone like you, who is
looking to understand the role of targeting in Canada's data driven politics.
And I made sure that it reaches you - via Google or social media.
As a campaign manager, your mandate is quite similar. You have to use
targeting in politics, to understand the electorate, identify what they need
and then use that information to persuade them to support your party (via
donations or attending rallies or by voting in your favor).

The 2012 Obama campaign was a study in such sophisticated and

advanced data-driven politics. It delved deep into voter preferences, their
behavior and party affiliation. Surveys were taken to understand how each
voter's support evolved dynamically and this data was used in campaigns
to predict number of votes and also sway voter support.
That is of course a simplistic overview of the obscenely complex and
humongous campaign. However, what I want you to focus on is how that
data was used to segment various voters and then target them with
specific messaging.

This e-book gives you an understanding of how the data you collect can be
used to improve the efficacy of your campaign. We will look at how it played
a key role in the 2012 Obama campaign, and understand how it can be
replicated for your campaigns to influence voter behavior. Be it for
fundraising, or a GOTV campaign or a simple door to door canvassing, you
will get actionable insights on talking to the right voter segment, with the
right message and win support.
I INT�ODUCTION

The 2019 Canadian elections are going to be very interesting (to say the
least). With the Liberals slowly losing their popularity edge, opinion polls show
that Canada is leaning towards a Conservative Government. However, the
same polls indicate that, though the Conservatives may win the most
number of seats, they would be hard pressed to sweep a majority.

====
■■
■■
+
338Canada
338C.nada Electoral Projection
June 16th 2019
250k simulations
e 30.� 35.5% 40.3"

� 26.°" 30. 7% 35.4"

• 12.4" 15.3% 18.2"

1a
\� ··•" 11.2%13,l"

The results will largely hinge on every parties' ability to not just consolidate
core supporters, but also capture the swing votes.
The 2012 Obama campaign faced a rather sim ilar situation. They ran

num erous cam paigns to consolidate core supporters. They also ran
exclusive campaigns that was focussed on bringing fringe Republicans into
the Democrat camp. A direct mail track addressing women's issues was one
such effort.

'' The whole goal of the campaign was to pick off votes for
Romney

says Terry Walsh who co- ordinated the campaign polling and paid media
spending.

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE l

Let us take the same direct mail example of the 2012 Obama campaign that
I mentioned above.

To put it simply, the campaigners sifted through their database to see which

-
voters, despite having Republican sentiments showed conflicted behavior.

l
And quite simply, they had a new audience who could be swayed. The
Obama campaign targeted this group, with specific details about the cause
they cared about and the Democrats stance on every issue. Needless to say,
they won their support.

This audience, who consisted primarily of single women in target swing

states, were part of the 70% voter turn out that eventually won him the
election.

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 4

That is where micro-targeting helps. By categorizing voters into segments
based on the issues they care about (and not just their political affiliation)
the parties can send out targeted messages to every segment. This has two
advantages:

■ The most obvious - each party is not restricted to 'core' supporters. So

they have a wider target audience and supporter base to focus on.
■ The more nuanced - the parties do not have to worry about alienating

voters who disagree on a particular topic.

Another inherent advantage of using micro-targeting is that the political

parties know the general predisposition of a voter towards their candidate.

For instance, the Liberals are now weighed down by what is widely called
"Trudeau fatigue". Due to recent political developments, Justin Trudeau is

widely considered to have lost the competitive edge he has enjoyed in the
previous election. Their party has shrewdly noted that this does not mean
the voters are leaning towards Conserveists. So they are re-focussing
their efforts on campaign messages to bring core Liberal supporters back to
their camp.

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 7

Individual Record Overview
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How this data is seen in Liberalist. Pie courtesy: Tactical Technology

Collective paper on Data Analytics in Canadian Elections, (taken from
publicly available training manuals)

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 13

I UNDE�STANDING cu��ENT VOTE� SENTlmENT

To ensure that your campaigns have the same advantage, the best bet is for
you to collect data directly from your electorate. You can do that by:

■ Phonebanking: Have volunteers make individual call to every voter on

your list, ask a list of survey questions and gauge their responses.

■ Texting: Send out broadcast SMS, asking your audience where they stand.

Depending upon their response, you will know if they are still your

supporters or not.

■ Direct door to door canvassing: Directly meet your voters at their home,

have a conversation with them to understand which side they are leaning

towards.

Each of these methods have a variety of pros and cons. If the Alberta
elections are any indication, text messaging, though quite prevalent, may
not be the ideal way to reach your electorate. Not only will you have a tough
time cutting through the noise (you can be sure that all parties are using it),
but you stand a good chance of annoying voters and alienating them.

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 17

Running a door to door campaign is a pretty daunting task. You need
immense number of (trained) volunteers to knock on each door and have a
conversation. After this, you have to entirely depend on the volunteers to
upload the right data into your database.

Despite these drawbacks, door to door is invaluable in the upcoming

elections. Time and again, it has been proven that door to door is the gold
standard, when it comes to reaching your audience. Because making a
good first impression counts!

'' People remember conversations.

They will remember your volunteers when they meet them face to face and
this can influence their voting behavior. If your riding is in battleground
territory, door to door is especially necessary to,

■ Collect quality data

■ Influence voters (when possible).

But, how to know which doors to knock on? You cannot run the risk of
approaching non-supporters. Not only will your volunteers waste valuable
time, they can also get caught in an argument that is quite detrimental to
your candidate.

In this case, the existing data you have in hand is quite helpful. By appending
the aggregated vote totals cast for each office and issue in past elections in
each citizen's precinct to individual voter records in the voter database, you
can have aggregate level data that indicate voter's preferences. Using this,
you can know which door to knock on and whom to talk to in a specific area.

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 20

 Averages of seat totals per region according to the latest 338Canada electoral projection (July 14th 2019)

Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories Projection average

9.4 16.6 46.8 22.2 33.4 18.8 0.9 147.9

21.5 45.5 62.7 4.8 0 10.7 2.1 147.2

�

II 0.6 1.8 11.4 1.1 0.6 7.2 0 22.7

0 13.8 0 0 0 0 0 13.8
�

0.6 0 0.1 0 0 4.6 0 5.4

II 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 0 0.6

PP<t 0 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0.4

Total 32 78 121 28 34 42 3 338

Here is the latest projection according to 338Canada:

Let us take Ontario. It says that 46.8 percent of the electorate lean towards
the conservationists. As the campaign manager, you will have to identify

thes e 46.8 percent (with as much precis ion as possible). If you know who
thes e are, depending upon your party affiliation, you can either choos e to
knock on their doors, or leave them out for your door to door campaigns.

A large number in thes e 46.8 would be thos e who have voted for
conservationists in the past and would be against key liberal policies (like
say carbon tax ). They would also be highly pro pipeline issue. So, just look to
your voter database to see which voters exhibit these preferences. The
voters who are in the centre of the overlay are likely core supporters.The
voters who are in the overlay of the other two segments are also likely to be
conservationists - but you definitely need to talk to them to find out more.

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 21

I BONUS: ffilC�O-TA�GETING WITH SOCIAL ffiEDIA
Considering the reach, social media has a vast audience. As a bonus section

we will be looking at how you can use the micro-targeted data to create ads

on Facebook and lnstagram. Approximately, 3.5 billion people access

them every month. According to CIRA, 77% and 35% Canadians are on

Facebook and lnstagram respectively.

'' We knew that the vast majority of voters, something like

97 percent of the U.S. electorate, could be reached if
everyone who was following Barack Obama on Facebook
shared a piece of content.
- Betsy Hoover Online campaign director, Obama campaign 2012.

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 40

I C�EATE YOU� AD
In the final step, you will need to create an ad for the target audience. There

are different kind of ad types that you can choose from. This depends on the

objective that you set in the previous step. Follow this guide to create your

first ad. Here's a sample ad from Liberal party.

� Liberal Party of Canada I Parti liberal du Canada ...

'Ill'
Sponsored

E eryone deserves a place to call home. Our national housing s rategy , ,m

ensure 500,000 more amilies ill be able to afford a home hat meets heir
needs. Say you're o ing , 1ith Team Trudeau if you support our national
housing s ra egy.

Support our national housing strategy. ote, ·th Team

Trudeau.
GO.LIBERAL CA
Sign Up

r/:J Li e CJ Com ent c!> ha e

The Beginner's Guide to Political Microtargeting PAGE 44