Retail in Transition
Retail in Transition
Retail in Transition
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INTRODUCTION
Key findings
This region is an e- E-commerce in Asia Pacific and Australasia stands as the most dominant region
commerce powerhouse with significant unmet opportunities in 2021 and beyond. To put that into
that will drive global perspective, this expansion in the region will account for more than 45% of the
absolute value growth global absolute value growth in the 2020-2025 forecast period.
China is the largest and fastest-growing e-commerce market in Asia Pacific and
China continues to be Australasia. The market alone accounted for 64% of the absolute value growth in
the growth engine in the Asia Pacific and Australasia in 2020 and will continue to grow at a CAGR of 7% by
region value during 2020-2025 and more than USD99 billion in unmet e-commerce
opportunity, according to the Euromonitor E-commerce Readiness Model.
Mobile is quickly becoming a popular device of choice replacing tablets and
Mobile will drive the laptops for consumers when shopping online. Even during the pandemic,
growth of digital consumers have been increasingly turning to mobile to keep them engaged. With
purchases in the region the evolution of new shopping channels such as livestreaming services, usage of
mobiles for shopping is expected to grow further.
Digital trends will The retail industry’s traditional wholesale model has been turned on its side due to
continue to cause the emergence of new business models and channels such as marketplaces,
upheaval in the e- subscription services and direct-to-consumer brands. E-commerce is here to stay,
commerce market and it is vital to stay current with all facets of the digital retail landscape.
Addressing
Consumers in Asia Pacific and Australasia have elevated consumer expectations
fundamental flaws in e-
and in this increasingly crowded and hyper-competitive e-commerce market it will
commerce is important
be vital for retailers to address key challenges such as fulfilment, data privacy and
to drive the future of the
shopping experience to prime themselves for future e-commerce success.
market
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E-COMMERCE EMERGES AS THE DEFAULT SETTING
In 2020, product-based e-commerce expanded by USD523.4 billion globally, expanding by 26% in real
terms. In a year when retail sales were down, e-commerce was the bright spot. This banner growth is likely
to be sustained even as vaccine distribution continues. In fact, 74% of global industry professionals working
for retailers and consumer brands said in an October survey that they expect the crisis-led rise in online
shopping to become permanent.
Asian countries are among the fastest developing e-commerce markets, with the highest e-commerce
penetration of 16% in 2019, compared to a global average of 13%. Even though Asian markets are
considered relatively more mature, these countries still posted strong growth in 2020. E-commerce sales
expanded by USD187.2 billion in Asian markets and by USD5.3 billion in Australasia due to the channel
shift to e-commerce amid the COVID-19 pandemic, making it the second fastest growing region in terms of
absolute value growth. Those regions combined are still the largest e-commerce market in the world,
accounting for 48% of the global e-commerce market by value in 2020.
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E-COMMERCE EMERGES AS THE DEFAULT SETTING
COVID-19 has enhanced the already significant growth in e-commerce in Asia Pacific countries. In 2020,
product-based e-commerce expanded by USD187.2 billion in Asian markets and by USD5.3 billion in
Australasia, with the most significant expansion coming from more mature markets such as China and
South Korea. Countries such as Thailand and Indonesia, where e-commerce is still in the early stages of
development, posted the highest year-on-year growth in 2020.
China alone accounted for 66% of the absolute value growth in Asia Pacific in 2020. Prior to the outbreak of
the pandemic, e-commerce had already been booming for years in China. However, the pandemic greatly
increased consumers’ willingness to shop via e-commerce due to its added safety and convenience.
Brands and retailers are counting on e-commerce to compensate for losses via offline retailing due to store
closures and decreases in footfall. The pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation in lower-tier
cities and rural areas of China, bringing forward the proliferation of e-commerce and consumer tech
adoption by years. In China, e-commerce penetration, which refers to the percentage of total retailing
bought online, expanded by nearly five percentage points in 2020 to reach 27% off the back of the
pandemic.
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E-COMMERCE EMERGES AS THE DEFAULT SETTING
Case study: XSYX rethinks last mile via community group buying model
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IDENTIFYING E-COMMERCE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
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IDENTIFYING E-COMMERCE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Even without expanding supply chains or logistics networks, e-commerce growth is possible merely
through optimisation. The markets identified by the model as having greater potential indicates that they
were positioned to handle more e-commerce purchases, meaning they are better equipped to sustain the
COVID-19 surge in 2021 and beyond. In fact, the E-commerce Readiness Model found that the retail
market globally could support more than USD122.6 billion in additional e-commerce sales without
infrastructure expansion based on market dynamics entering the pandemic.
Within Asia Pacific and Australasia, the retail market has the potential to grow by more than USD68.5
billion in additional e-commerce sales. This is more than 55% of total global unmet e-commerce
opportunities, making Asia Pacific and Australasia collectively an extremely enticing place for companies to
invest in. Diving into greater detail, it is no surprise that China constitutes 78% of total e-commerce
potential in this combined region. With a projected absolute market value difference of USD99.2 billion
when comparing between 2019 and 2024 in China, companies can take advantage of this unmet
opportunity to help drive significant revenue, even with minimal in-country presence.
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IDENTIFYING E-COMMERCE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
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IDENTIFYING E-COMMERCE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Case study: Coupang uses vast logistics network to allow faster delivery
42% of connected consumers in Asia Pacific think that delivery takes longer than expected. This is
the most popular complaint according to our Voice of the Consumer: Digital Survey, 2021.
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IDENTIFYING E-COMMERCE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Given that the E-commerce Readiness Model measures unmet e-commerce potential, the recently
highlighted opportunities will come through optimisation rather than expansion of the market itself. Of
course, there is potential for the e-commerce market to grow as a result of companies expanding their
capabilities to handle more e-commerce sales. During 2020-2025, e-commerce will account for more than
half of the absolute value growth of the global retail sector. That equates to USD1.36 trillion of absolute
value growth.
Diving deeper into Asia Pacific and Australasia, China is understandably the largest e-commerce market
with significant absolute value growth. To put the importance of the China e-commerce market into
perspective, the US is the only market globally with more absolute value growth expected in the forecast
period than China. In fact, the sum of all growth of the remaining countries in Asia Pacific and Australasia
combined in 2020 was still smaller than China’s e-commerce market. Taking China’s e-commerce market
out of the equation, there are still other countries such as India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan that are
forecast to experience strong absolute value growth.
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IDENTIFYING E-COMMERCE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
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HOW TO WIN IN THE DIGITAL-FIRST ERA
Digital has changed the rules of the game for those in retail
The digital revolution has done more than just heighten consumer expectations; it has also changed how
retail operates. In recent years, the retail industry’s traditional wholesale model has been turned on its side
due in part to the rise of direct-to-consumer brands, the growth of the marketplace model popularised by
the likes of Amazon and Alibaba, and the resurgence of subscription services with a digital twist.
Subscriptions have become a new service themselves, as retail shifts towards a single-fee model.
Companies are exploring new business models more than before, but there is industry variance regarding
this sentiment. More than 80% professionals working at retailers and durable goods brands report their
companies are exploring alternative ways of doing business, whereas only 64% of those at financial
services firms agreed. Such efforts to rethink the way goods and services were sold continued out of
necessity during the pandemic. During this challenging period, companies rethought their go-to-market
strategy. Unlikely bedfellows entered partnerships. Influencer marketing received a new spin with the arrival
of live selling on the global stage.
Source: Euromonitor International Voice of the Industry: Digital Survey, fielded in February 2018, September 2018, November 2019 and November 2020
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HOW TO WIN IN THE DIGITAL-FIRST ERA
Besides the traditional power struggles between retailers and consumer brands, the retail sector is also
facing structural challenges ahead, as the rise in e-commerce challenges long-held principles. In the past,
consumers went to stores to truly shop. This is where they experienced the brand, where they touched
products and where they executed the purchase. While e-commerce was rising in popularity, it largely
served a transactional role. The purpose of these two channels was evolving, but the crisis accelerated this
shift and gave a preview of a world where consumers only visit stores to transact and instead turn to digital
channels to shop. While this is unlikely to be the exact reality as social-distancing measures are eased, the
intensity of the crisis has brought these once looming challenges into greater focus.
The continued rise in e-commerce will call into question the fundamental purpose of a channel. As part of
this, retailers will have to reimagine the role of the store for the digital era, which will vary depending upon
the products sold. The shift towards digital is not without challenges. Rising fulfilment costs and the
environmental impact of e-commerce mean that retailers must rethink last mile delivery and collection,
which may include new delivery and collection methods, or more technologies to automate that part of the
process.
Purpose of shopping channels Rethinking the role of the Reinvention of last mile
swap positions store for the digital era delivery and collection
• Stores were once reserved • Stores were always the • Rising last mile delivery
for shopping, while e- centre of the consumer costs and environmental
commerce was more shopping experience. As e- concerns, magnified by the
transactional in nature. commerce expands, e-commerce boom, are
During the crisis, the two however, retailers will have forcing retailers to explore
flipped roles, accelerating a to reconsider the role of new delivery and collection
change that was already in these physical assets. methods.
motion.
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HOW TO WIN IN THE DIGITAL-FIRST ERA
Digital wallets on the rise From livestreaming to live Growth potential in online
selling grocery
Commerce is about meeting With COVID-19 limiting in-person It is irrefutable that shoppers in
consumers where they want to be engagements, consumers turned Asia Pacific and Australasia will
found. According to to digital for commerce with some continue to buy groceries online
Euromonitor’s Digital Survey even tuning into livestreams to – even after the pandemic ends.
2021, only 26% of digital discover, research and purchase. Food and drinks e-commerce in
connected consumers in Asia Livestreaming, which gained Asia Pacific and Australasia will
Pacific and Australasia have not popularity in recent years as a nearly double over 2020-2025,
reaching a market size of
used a digital wallet to shop in- content medium, made inroads
USD172.8 billion in 2025,
store or online in the last 12 during the crisis due to its ability to
according to Euromonitor’s
months. The shift from cash to create an emotional connection Retailing research.
card and now digital wallets is more associated with in-person
Significant inroads in this region
swift with the pandemic further shopping. This concept first took
were already made to improve
accelerating it. Digital wallets are hold in China, with interest
logistics networks for food and
convenient, secure and easy to spreading in 2020. More than 39% drinks e-commerce. Having said
integrate with other services such of consumers in Asia Pacific have that, online groceries, especially
as buy now, pay later and loyalty purchased using livestream or live the ready-to-cook meals
platforms. Against the backdrop selling in 2021 – the highest category, remains an enormous
of rising digital wallet payment region globally. Live selling is market that is still relatively
activity in this region, companies likely to be relevant in the post- underpenetrated and represents
need to ensure their infrastructure pandemic era with this concept significant opportunities that
is ready for this rapid shift. likely to develop further. companies can capitalise on.
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HOW TO WIN IN THE DIGITAL-FIRST ERA
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HOW TO WIN IN THE DIGITAL-FIRST ERA
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HOW TO WIN IN THE DIGITAL-FIRST ERA
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Thank you
Michelle Evans Vishnu Vardhan
Senior Head of Digital Consultant
and Retail Research Bangalore
Chicago