Tesla FSAP
Tesla FSAP
Tesla FSAP
0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 10th Edition
By Jim Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
Preferred stock
Common stock + Additional paid in capital 9,178 10,249 12,737 27,261 29,806 32,180
Retained earnings <deficit> -4,974 -5,318 -6,083 -5,399 329 12,885
Comprehensive Inc. and Other 33 -8 -36 363 54 -361
<Treasury stock> and other equity adjustments
Total Common Shareholders' Equity 4,237 4,923 6,618 22,225 30,189 44,704
Noncontrolling interests 1,395 1,390 1,492 1,454 1,394 1,194
Total Equity 5,632 6,313 8,110 23,679 31,583 45,898
Total Liabilities and Equities 28,655 29,740 34,309 52,148 62,131 82,338
INCOME STATEMENT DATA 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Revenues 11,759 21,461 24,578 31,536 53,823 81,462
<Cost of goods sold> -9,536 -17,419 -20,509 -24,906 -40,217 -60,609
Gross Profit 2,223 4,042 4,069 6,630 13,606 20,853
<Selling, general, and administrative expenses> -2,477 -2,835 -2,646 -3,188 -4,517 -3,946
<Advertising expenses>
<Research and development expenses> -1,378 -1,460 -1,343 -1,491 -2,593 -3,075
Add back: Imputed interest expense on operating
Other Operating Expense/(Income) 27 -140
<Other operating expenses (2)>
<Other operating expenses (3)>
<Non-recurring operating expenses>
Income <Loss> from equity affiliates
Non-recurring operating gains <losses>
Operating Income -1,632 -253 80 1,951 6,523 13,692
<Interest expense> -477 -653 -725 -748 -371 -191
Subtract: Imputed interest expense on operating lease
Other income <expense> -42 36 129 -92 191 254
Exchange Gains (Loss)
Other income or gains <Other expenses or losses> -58 -135 -149 43 0 -36
Income before Tax -2,209 -1,005 -665 1,154 6,343 13,719
<Income tax expense> -32 -58 -110 -292 -699 -1,132
Income <Loss> from discontinued operations
Extraordinary gains <losses>
Income <Loss> from changes in accounting principles
Net Income -2,241 -1,063 -775 862 5,644 12,587
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 279 87 -87 -141 -125 -31
Net Income attributable to common shareholders -1,962 -976 -862 721 5,519 12,556
Net Income (enter reported amount as a check) -1,962 -976 -862 721 5,519 12,556
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS DATA 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Income -2,241 -1,063 -775 862 5,644 12,587
Add back depreciation and amortization expenses 1,727 2,047 2,092 2,322 2,911 3,747
Add back stock-based compensation expense 467 749 898 1,734 2,121 1,560
Deferred income taxes
<Income from equity affiliates, net of dividends>
<Increase> Decrease in accounts receivable -25 -497 -367 -652 -130 -1,124
<Increase> Decrease in inventories -179 -1,023 -429 -422 -1,709 -6,465
<Increase> Decrease in prepaid expenses
<Increase> Decrease in other current assets
<Increase> Decrease in other noncurrent assets
Increase <Decrease> in accounts payable 388 1,797 646 2,102 4,578 6,029
Increase <Decrease> in income taxes payable
Increase <Decrease> in other current liabilities 469 406 801 321 793 1,131
Operating lease right-of-use assets and liabilities, net
Other addbacks to <subtractions from> net income 106 175 62 0 0 0
Other operating cash flows -1,052 -580 -436 -183 -2,586 -2,710
Net CF from Operating Activities -340 2,011 2,492 6,084 11,622 14,755
Proceeds from sales of property, plant, and equipment
<Property, plant, and equipment acquired> -4,081 -2,319 -1,432 -3,232 -6,514 -7,163
<Increase> Decrease in marketable securities 0 0 0 0 -132 -5,813
Investments sold
<Investments acquired> -115 -18 -45 -13 0 0
Payments for acquisitions of intangible assets 0 0 -5 -10 0 -9
Other investing transactions 0 0 46 123 -1,222 1,012
Net CF from Investing Activities -4,196 -2,337 -1,436 -3,132 -7,868 -11,973
Increase in short-term borrowing
<Decrease in short-term borrowing>
Increase in long-term borrowing 7,649 6,176 10,669 9,713 8,883 0
<Decrease in long-term borrowing> -4,264 -6,087 -9,871 -12,201 -14,615 -3,866
Issue of capital stock 659 296 1,111 12,686 707 541
Proceeds from stock option exercises
<Share repurchases>
<Dividend payments>
Other financing transactions (1) 371 189 -380 -225 -178 -202
Other financing transactions (2)
Net CF from Financing Activities 4,415 574 1,529 9,973 -5,203 -3,527
Effects of exchange rate changes on cash 40 -23 8 334 -183 -444
Changes in restricted cash 93 -11 -143 -176 -134
Net Change in Cash -81 318 2,582 13,116 -1,808 -1,323
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of year 0 3,368 3,686 6,268 19,384 17,576
Cash and cash equivalents, end of year -81 3,686 6,268 19,384 17,576 16,253
DATA CHECKS
Assets - Liabilities - Equities 0 0 0 0 0
Net Income (computed) - Net Income (reported) 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Changes 0 0 0 0
In the computations below, a #DIV/0! message indicates that a ratio denominator is zero.
OPERATING PERFORMANCE:
Gross Profit / Revenues 18.8% 16.6% 21.0% 25.3% 25.6%
Operating Profit / Revenues -1.2% 0.3% 6.2% 12.1% 16.8%
Net Income / Revenues -4.5% -3.5% 2.3% 10.3% 15.4%
Comprehensive Income / Revenues -5.0% -3.2% 2.7% 10.5% 15.5%
GROWTH RATES:
Revenue Growth 82.5% 14.5% 28.3% 70.7% 51.4%
Net Income Growth -50.3% -11.7% -183.6% 665.5% 127.5%
Persistent Net Income Growth -55.8% -15.2% -195.1% 714.0% 128.2%
OPERATING CONTROL:
Gross Profit Control Index 99.6% 87.9% 127.0% 120.2% 101.3%
Operating Profit Contol Index 8.5% -27.6% 1900.7% 195.9% 138.7%
Net Profit Contol Index 26.0% 63.7% -86.7% 383.6% 147.3%
ASSET TURNOVER:
Cash Turnover 6.1 4.9 2.5 2.9 4.8
Days Sales Held in Cash 60.0 73.9 148.4 125.3 75.8
Accounts Receivable Turnover 29.3 21.6 19.5 27.7 31.9
Days Receivables Held 12 17 19 13 11
Inventory Turnover 6.5 6.2 6.5 8.2 6.5
Days Inventory Held 56 59 56 45 56
Accounts Payable Turnover 6.3 5.8 5.2 5.2 5.4
Days Payables Held 58 63 70 70 68
Net Working Capital Days 11 14 4 -12 -1
Revenues / Average Net Fixed Assets 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.4
CAPEX Index #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Expected Useful Life of PPE for Depreciation #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Expected Remaining Useful Life of PPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 78.8% 76.4% 54.6% 49.2% 44.3%
Total Liabilities / Total Equity 371.1% 323.0% 120.2% 96.7% 79.4%
LT Debt / LT Capital 57.3% 56.1% 26.6% 11.9% 2.2%
LT Debt / Total Equity 134.0% 127.9% 36.2% 13.5% 2.2%
Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities 8.7% 10.0% 22.3% 39.4% 44.1%
Interest Coverage Ratio (reported amounts) -0.5 0.1 2.5 18.1 72.8
Interest Coverage ratio (recurring amounts) -0.3 0.3 2.5 18.1 73.0
RISK FACTORS:
Bankruptcy Predictors:
Altman Z Score 0.29 0.44 0.83 1.34 1.96
Bankruptcy Probability 76.18% 71.16% 56.92% 36.57% 16.97%
Earnings Manipulation Predictors:
Beneish Earnings Manipulation Score -2.14 -2.35 -2.73 -2.47 -2.06
Earnings Manipulation Probability 1.62% 0.93% 0.32% 0.68% 1.99%
Preferred stock
Common stock + Additional paid in capital 34.5% 37.1% 52.3% 48.0% 39.1%
Retained earnings <deficit> -17.9% -17.7% -10.4% 0.5% 15.6%
Comprehensive Inc. and Other 0.0% -0.1% 0.7% 0.1% -0.4%
<Treasury stock> and other equity adjustments
Total Common Shareholders' Equity 16.6% 19.3% 42.6% 48.6% 54.3%
Noncontrolling interests 4.7% 4.3% 2.8% 2.2% 1.5%
Total Equity 21.2% 23.6% 45.4% 50.8% 55.7%
Total Liabilities and Equities 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Preferred stock
Common stock + Additional paid in capital 11.7% 24.3% 114.0% 9.3% 8.0% 28.5%
Retained earnings <deficit> 6.9% 14.4% -11.2% -106.1% 3816.4% -221.0%
Comprehensive Inc. and Other -124.0% 350.0% -1108.3% -85.1% -768.5% -261.0%
<Treasury stock> and other equity adjustments
Total Common Shareholders' Equity 16.2% 34.4% 235.8% 35.8% 48.1% 60.2%
Noncontrolling interests -0.4% 7.3% -2.5% -4.1% -14.3% -3.1%
Total Equity 12.1% 28.5% 192.0% 33.4% 45.3% 52.1%
Total Liabilities and Equities 3.8% 15.4% 52.0% 19.1% 32.5% 23.5%
RETURN ON COMMON SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ANALYSIS (excluding the effects of non-recurring items)
Investing Activities:
Capital expenditures (net) -2,319 -1,432 -3,232 -6,514 -7,163
Investments -18 -45 -13 -132 -5,813
Other investing transactions 0 41 113 -1,222 1,003
Net CF from Investing Activities -2,337 -1,436 -3,132 -7,868 -11,973
Financing Activities:
Net proceeds from short-term borrowing 0 0 0 0 0
Net proceeds from long-term borrowing 89 798 -2,488 -5,732 -3,866
Net proceeds from share issues and repurchases 296 1,111 12,686 707 541
Dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other financing transactions 189 -380 -225 -178 -202
Net CF from Financing Activities 574 1,529 9,973 -5,203 -3,527
<Selling, general, and administrative expenses> -3,188.0 -4,517.0 -3,946.0 -6,417.8 -7,982.8 -9,878.1 -11,051.9 -11,793.2 -12,972.5
common size -10.1% -8.4% -4.8% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -4.5% -4.0%
rate of change 41.7% -12.6% SG&A increase with revenue growth, expect to achieve economic scale after 5 years.
<Research and development expenses> -1,491.0 -2,593.0 -3,075.0 -5,776.0 -7,982.8 -9,878.1 -14,735.8 -17,689.7 -19,458.7
common size -4.7% -4.8% -3.8% -4.5% -5.0% -5.0% -6.0% -6.0%
R&D are critical to Tesla's long-term growth, placeholder for new technology research
rate of change 73.9% 18.6% and development
Other Operating Expense/(Income) 0.0 27.0 -140.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
common size 0.0% 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change -618.5% Not material
Operating Income 1,951.0 6,523.0 13,692.0 18,611.7 22,351.9 29,634.2 38,067.6 47,172.7 51,889.9
common size 6.2% 12.1% 16.8% 14.5% 14.0% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.0%
rate of change 234.3% 109.9% 35.9% 20.1% 32.6% 28.5% 23.9%
<Interest expense> -748.0 -371.0 -191.0 -128.8 -148.5 -1,785.4 -213.1 -5,330.8 -5,863.9
common size -2.4% -0.7% -0.2% 6.0% 6.0% 40.0% 3.0% 50.0%
Assume Tesla is going to take on more debt for expansion in Year 3 and 5, interest
rate of change -50.4% -48.5% expense would increase
Subtract: Imputed interest expense on operating 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions.
Other income <expense> -92.0 191.0 254.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
common size -0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change -307.6% 33.0% Explain assumptions.
Other income or gains <Other expenses or losses> 43.0 0.0 -36.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
common size 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change -100.0% Explain assumptions
Income before Tax 1,154.0 6,343.0 13,719.0 18,482.8 22,203.4 27,848.8 37,854.5 41,841.9 46,026.0
common size 3.7% 11.8% 16.8% 14.4% 13.9% 14.1% 15.4% 14.2% 14.2%
rate of change 449.7% 116.3% 34.7% 20.1% 25.4% 35.9% 10.5%
<Income tax expense> -292.0 -699.0 -1,132.0 -4,620.7 -5,550.9 -6,962.2 -9,463.6 -10,460.5 -11,506.5
effective tax rates -25.3% -11.0% -8.3% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0%
rate of change 139.4% 61.9% Effective income tax rate assumptions.
Net Income 862.0 5,644.0 12,587.0 13,862.1 16,652.6 20,886.6 28,390.9 31,381.4 34,519.5
common size 2.7% 10.5% 15.5% 10.8% 10.4% 10.6% 11.6% 10.6% 10.6%
rate of change 554.8% 123.0% 10.1% 20.1% 25.4% 35.9% 10.5% 10.0%
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests -141.0 -125.0 -31.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
common size -0.4% -0.2% 0.0%
rate of change -11.3% -75.2% Explain assumptions
Net Income attributable to common shareholders 721.0 5,519.0 12,556.0 13,862.1 16,652.6 20,886.6 28,390.9 31,381.4 34,519.5
common size 2.3% 10.3% 15.4% 10.8% 10.4% 10.6% 11.6% 10.6% 10.6%
rate of change 665.5% 127.5% 10.4% 20.1% 25.4% 35.9% 10.5% 10.0%
Comprehensive Income 862.0 5,644.0 12,587.0 13,862.1 16,652.6 20,886.6 28,390.9 31,381.4 34,519.5
common size 2.7% 10.5% 15.5% 10.8% 10.4% 10.6% 11.6% 10.6% 10.6%
rate of change 554.8% 123.0% 10.1% 20.1% 25.4% 35.9% 10.5% 10.0%
LIABILITIES:
Accounts payable 6,051.0 10,025.0 15,255.0 24,553.1 30,540.4 37,293.9 45,743.6 54,913.3 60,404.6
common size 11.6% 16.1% 18.5% 61% 24% 22% 23% 20%
Assume increase the same speed as the increase of COGS. Once Tesla is more
rate of change 65.7% 52.2% mature, it may have more bargaining power over suppliers
Accrued liabilities 1,632.0 2,951.0 3,773.0 4,527.6 5,206.7 5,727.4 6,300.2 6,930.2 7,623.2
common size 3.1% 4.7% 4.6% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
rate of change 80.8% 27.9% Explain assumptions
Current maturities of long-term debt 1,758.0 1,088.0 1,016.0 1,117.6 1,341.1 1,609.3 2,896.8 3,186.5 3,505.2
common size 3.4% 1.8% 1.2% 10% 20% 20% 80% 10%
rate of change -38.1% -6.6% Same rate as long-term debt
Current operating lease liabilities 660.0 869.0 971.0 1,359.4 1,767.2 2,209.0 3,203.1 4,644.5 5,108.9
common size 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 40% 30% 25% 45% 45%
rate of change 31.7% 11.7% Explain assumptions
Income taxes payable 777.0 1,122.0 1,235.0 1,987.7 2,472.5 3,019.2 3,703.3 4,445.6 4,890.2
common size 1.5% 1.8% 1.5% 61% 24% 22% 23% 20%
rate of change 44.4% 10.1% Income taxes payable increase the similar rate as revenue
Unearned Revenue, Current 1,458.0 1,447.0 1,747.0 2,445.8 3,179.5 3,974.4 5,762.9 8,356.2 9,191.9
common size 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 40% 30% 25% 45% 45%
rate of change -0.8% 20.7% Increase with sales
Other current liabilities (2) 1,912.0 2,203.0 2,712.0 2,983.2 3,281.5 3,609.7 3,970.6 4,367.7 4,804.5
common size 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
rate of change 15.2% 23.1% Explain assumptions
Current Liabilities 14,248.0 19,705.0 26,709.0 38,974.4 47,789.0 57,443.0 71,580.5 86,844.0 95,528.4
common size 27.3% 31.7% 32.4% 41.2% 44.5% 47.5% 48.8% 48.0% 48.0%
rate of change 38.3% 35.5% 45.9% 22.6% 20.2% 24.6% 21.3%
Long-term debt 8,571.0 4,254.0 1,029.0 1,131.9 1,358.3 4,618.2 5,080.0 10,159.9 11,175.9
common size 16.4% 6.8% 1.2% 10% 20% 240% 10% 100%
Tesla paid off a large proportion of long-term debt in 2022, but they may acquire more
rate of change -50.4% -75.8% loans when interest rate goes down in the future
Long-term operating lease liabilities 2,348.0 2,662.0 2,732.0 3,824.8 4,972.2 6,215.3 9,012.2 13,067.7 14,374.4
common size 4.5% 4.3% 3.3% 40% 30% 25% 45% 45%
rate of change 13.4% 2.6% Assume same growth rate as revenue
Deferred tax liabilities 151.0 24.0 82.0 132.0 164.2 200.5 245.9 295.2 324.7
common size 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 61% 24% 22% 23% 20%
rate of change -84.1% 241.7% Deferred tax from ECL and other reserves, increase the same rate as investments
Unearned Revenue, Non-Current 1,284.0 2,052.0 2,804.0 3,925.6 5,103.3 6,379.1 9,249.7 13,412.1 14,753.3
common size 2.5% 3.3% 3.4% 40% 30% 25% 45% 45%
rate of change 59.8% 36.6% Increase with sales
Other noncurrent liabilities (2) 1,867.0 1,851.0 3,084.0 3,392.4 3,731.6 4,104.8 4,515.3 5,192.6 5,711.8
common size 3.6% 3.0% 3.7% 10% 10% 10% 10% 15%
rate of change -0.9% 66.6% Assume flat rate
Total Liabilities 28,469.0 30,548.0 36,440.0 51,381.1 63,118.6 78,960.9 99,683.5 128,971.4 141,868.5
common size 54.6% 49.2% 44.3% 54.3% 58.8% 65.2% 68.0% 71.3% 71.3%
rate of change 7.3% 19.3% 41.0% 22.8% 25.1% 26.2% 29.4%
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Preferred stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Common stock + Additional paid in capital 27,261.0 29,806.0 32,180.0 35,398.0 38,937.8 42,831.6 47,114.7 51,826.2 57,008.8
common size 52.3% 48.0% 39.1% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 43.0%
rate of change 9.3% 8.0% Explain assumptions
Retained earnings <deficit> -5,399.0 329.0 12,885.0 26,747.1 43,399.7 64,286.3 92,677.2 124,058.6 136,464.5
common size -10.4% 0.5% 15.6% 28.3% 40.4% 53.1% 63.2% 68.6% 0%
rate of change -106.1% 3816.4% Add net income and subtract dividends; see forecast box below.
Comprehensive Inc. and Other 363.0 54.0 -361.0 -361.0 -361.0 -361.0 -361.0 -361.0 -397.1
common size 0.7% 0.1% -0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change -85.1% -768.5% Add accumulated other comprehensive income items from income statement
<Treasury stock> and other equity adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 -19,788.6 -38,971.3 -65,948.3 -93,854.2 -124,854.4 -137,339.9
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
rate of change Treasury stock repurchases, financial flexible amount determined below.
Total Common Shareholders' Equity 22,225.0 30,189.0 44,704.0 41,995.6 43,005.2 40,808.6 45,576.7 50,669.4 55,736.3
common size 42.6% 48.6% 54.3% 44.4% 40.1% 33.7% 31.1% 28.0%
rate of change 35.8% 48.1% -6.1% 2.4% -5.1% 11.7% 11.2% 10.0%
Noncontrolling interests 1,454.0 1,394.0 1,194.0 1,217.9 1,242.2 1,267.1 1,292.4 1,318.3 1,318.3
common size 2.8% 2.2% 1.5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
rate of change -4.1% -14.3% Explain assumptions
Total Equity 23,679.0 31,583.0 45,898.0 43,213.4 44,247.4 42,075.7 46,869.1 51,987.6 57,054.6
common size 45.4% 50.8% 55.7% 45.7% 41.2% 34.8% 32.0% 28.7%
rate of change 33.4% 45.3% -5.8% 2.4% -4.9% 11.4% 10.9%
Total Liabilities and Equities 52,148.0 62,131.0 82,338.0 94,594.6 107,366.0 121,036.5 146,552.7 180,959.0 198,923.1
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
rate of change 19.1% 32.5% 14.9% 13.5% 12.7% 21.1% 23.5% 9.9%
Check figures: Balance Sheet A=L+OE? 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 132
Initial adjustment needed to balance the balance sheet:
-19,788.6 -19,182.7 -26,977.0 -27,905.9 -31,000.2 -34,467.3
Dividends forecasts:
Common dividends: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Assume dividend payout of net income, if any.
Preferred dividends: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Enter preferred stock dividend payment amounts, if any.
Total dividends: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total dividend forecast amounts.
Net Income 5,644.0 12,587.0 13,862.1 16,652.6 20,886.6 28,390.9 31,381.4 34,519.5 1
Add back depreciation expense (net) 2,173.0 2,808.0 4,738.3 5,538.3 6,438.3 7,538.3 8,938.3 4,469.1 2
Add back amortization expense (net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3
<Increase> Decrease in receivables - net -83.0 -1,130.0 -623.2 -747.8 -673.1 -1,290.0 -967.5 -741.8 4
<Increase> Decrease in inventories -1,656.0 -7,082.0 -1,283.9 -1,412.3 -1,553.5 -1,708.9 -1,879.8 -2,067.7 5
<Increase> Decrease in prepaid expenses -214.0 -1,178.0 -124.2 -130.4 -136.9 -143.7 -150.9 -316.9 6
<Increase> Decrease in other current assets (1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7
<Increase> Decrease in other current assets (2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8
Increase <Decrease> in accounts payable 3,974.0 5,230.0 9,298.1 5,987.3 6,753.6 8,449.7 9,169.6 5,491.3 9
Increase <Decrease> in accrued liabilities 1,319.0 822.0 754.6 679.1 520.7 572.7 630.0 693.0 10
Increase <Decrease> in income taxes payable 345.0 113.0 752.7 484.7 546.7 684.1 742.3 444.6 11
Increase <Decrease> in other current liabilities (1) -11.0 300.0 698.8 733.7 794.9 1,788.5 2,593.3 835.6 12
Increase <Decrease> in other current liabilities (2) 291.0 509.0 271.2 298.3 328.2 361.0 397.1 436.8 13
Net change in deferred tax liabilities -127.0 58.0 50.0 32.2 36.3 45.4 49.3 29.5 14
Increase <Decrease> in long-term other liabilities 768.0 752.0 1,121.6 1,177.7 1,275.8 2,870.6 4,162.4 1,341.2 15
Increase <Decrease> in other noncurrent liabilities (2) -16.0 1,233.0 308.4 339.2 373.2 410.5 677.3 519.3 16
Net Cash Flows from Operations 12,407.0 15,022.0 29,824.6 29,632.7 35,590.8 47,969.0 55,742.8 45,653.5 17
<Increase> Decrease in property, plant, & equip. at cost -9,974.0 -8,267.0 -7,000.0 -8,000.0 -9,000.0 -11,000.0 -14,000.0 -9,713.4 18
<Increase> Decrease in operating lease right-of-use assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19
<Increase> Decrease in short-term investments -131.0 -5,801.0 -889.8 -682.2 -750.4 -1,650.9 -1,485.8 -1,139.1 20
<Increase> Decrease in long-term investments -229.0 -271.0 -114.8 -68.9 -113.7 -87.1 -95.8 -105.4 21
<Increase> Decrease in goodwill 7.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -19.4 22
<Increase> Decrease in trademarks and other intangibles 56.0 42.0 -21.5 -23.7 -26.0 -28.6 -31.5 -34.6 23
<Increase> Decrease in other assets -1,633.0 -708.0 -380.3 -418.3 -460.2 -506.2 -556.8 -612.5 24
<Increase> Decrease in other noncurrent assets (2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25
Net Cash Flows from Investing Activities -11,904.0 -14,999.0 -8,406.4 -9,193.0 -10,350.2 -13,272.8 -16,169.9 -11,624.4 26
Increase <Decrease> in short-term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27
Increase <Decrease> in long-term debt -4,987.0 -3,297.0 204.5 449.9 3,528.1 1,749.3 5,369.6 1,334.6 28
Increase <Decrease> in operating lease obligations 523.0 172.0 1,481.2 1,555.3 1,684.9 3,790.9 5,496.9 1,771.2 29
Increase <Decrease> in preferred stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30
Increase <Decrease> in common stock + paid in capital 2,545.0 2,374.0 3,218.0 3,539.8 3,893.8 4,283.2 4,711.5 5,182.6 31
Increase <Decrease> in accum. OCI -309.0 -415.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -36.1 32
Increase <Decrease> in treasury stock and other equity adjs. 0.0 0.0 -19,788.6 -19,182.7 -26,977.0 -27,905.9 -31,000.2 -12,485.4 33
Dividends paid 209.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -22,113.7 34
Increase <Decrease> in noncontrolling interests -185.0 -231.0 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.3 25.8 0.0 35
Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities -2,204.0 -1,397.0 -14,861.0 -13,613.4 -17,845.4 -18,057.2 -15,396.4 -26,346.7 36
Net Change in Cash -1,701.0 -1,374.0 6,557.2 6,826.3 7,395.1 16,639.0 24,176.6 7,682.3 37
Check Figure:
Net change in cash - Change in cash balance 107 -51 56 0 0 0 50 -92
OPERATING PERFORMANCE:
Gross Profit / Revenues 21.0% 25.3% 25.6% 24.0% 24.0% 25.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
Operating Profit Before Taxes / Revenues 6.2% 12.1% 16.8% 14.5% 14.0% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.0%
ASSET TURNOVER:
Revenues / Avg. Accounts Receivable 19.5 27.7 31.9 37.4 38.8 41.0 42.3 42.5 41.6
COGS / Average Inventory 6.5 8.2 6.5 7.2 8.2 9.1 10.1 11.1 11.1
Revenues / Average Fixed Assets 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.4 5.9 5.9
LIQUIDITY:
Current Ratio 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4
Quick Ratio 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 54.6% 49.2% 44.3% 54.3% 58.8% 65.2% 68.0% 71.3% 71.3%
Total Liabilities / Total Equity 120.2% 96.7% 79.4% 122.3% 146.8% 193.5% 218.7% 254.5% 254.5%
Interest Coverage Ratio 2.5 18.1 72.8 144.5 150.6 16.6 178.7 8.8 8.8
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 10.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 10th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
Net Sales (in millions): $ 31,536.0 $ 53,823.0 $ 81,462.0 $ 128,356.3 $ 159,656.2 $ 197,561.4 $ 245,597.4 $ 294,829.1
rates of change 70.7% 51.4% 57.6% 24.4% 23.7% 24.3% 20.0%
Implied revenue growth rates.
Five-year growth rate history: 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR
Sales growth rates: 87.0% 15.8% 28.2% 72.8% 52.0% 48.8%
Volume growth: 137.8% 49.9% 35.9% 87.4% 40.3% 66.4%
Price changes: -21.4% -22.8% -5.7% -7.8% 8.3% -10.6%
Energy generation and storage $ 1,994.0 $ 2,789.0 $ 3,909.0 $ 6,129.6 $ 7,397.9 $ 9,651.1 $ 12,420.0 $ 16,554.1
Sales growth rates: 39.9% 40.2% 56.8% 20.7% 30.5% 28.7% 33.3%
Volume growth: 32.1% 63.9% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Price changes: 5.9% -14.5% 20.6% -7.2% 0.4% -1.0% 2.5%
Five-year growth rate history: 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR
Sales growth rates: 0.0% -1.5% 30.2% 39.9% 40.2% 20.2%
Volume growth: 0.0% 58.6% 83.0% 32.1% 63.9% 44.4%
Price changes: 0.0% -37.9% -28.8% 5.9% -14.5% -16.7%
Total Sales $ 31,536.0 $ 53,823.0 $ 81,462.0 $ 128,356.3 $ 159,656.2 $ 197,561.4 $ 245,597.4 $ 294,829.1
70.7% 51.4% 57.6% 24.4% 23.7% 24.3% 20.0%
Forecast Development: Capital Expenditures, Property, Plant and Equipment, and Depreciation
Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Forecasts:
PP&E at cost: 2020 2021 2022 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Beg. balance at cost: 25,062 29,893 39,867 $ 48,134.0 $ 55,134.0 $ 63,134.0 $ 72,134.0 $ 83,134.0
Add: CAPEX forecasts from above: 4,831 9,974 8,267 7,000.0 8,000.0 9,000.0 11,000.0 14,000.0
End balance at cost: $ 29,893.0 $ 39,867.0 $ 48,134.0 $ 55,134.0 $ 63,134.0 $ 72,134.0 $ 83,134.0 $ 97,134.0
Accumulated Depreciation:
Beg. Balance: $ (11,499.0) $ (16,237.3) $ (21,775.6) $ (28,213.9) $ (35,752.2)
Subtract: Depreciation expense forecasts from below: (4,738.3) (5,538.3) (6,438.3) (7,538.3) (8,938.3)
End Balance: $ (6,518.0) $ (8,691.0) $ (11,499.0) $ (16,237.3) $ (21,775.6) $ (28,213.9) $ (35,752.2) $ (44,690.5)
PP&E - net $ 23,375.0 $ 31,176.0 $ 36,635.0 $ 38,896.7 $ 41,358.4 $ 43,920.1 $ 47,381.8 $ 52,443.5
Revenue Forecast
By geographic 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
United States 6221 14872 12653 15,207 23,973 40,553 54,774 71,040 92,093 118,643 146,348
% growth 139% -15% 20% 58% 69% 35% 30% 30% 29% 23%
China 2027 1757 2979 6,662 13,844 18,145 24,031 29,601 37,811 44,328 52,930
% growth -13% 70% 124% 108% 31% 32% 23% 28% 17% 19%
Other international 3511 4832 8946 9,667 16,006 22,764 28,173 36,625 43,950 55,113 66,136
38% 85% 8% 66% 42% 24% 30% 20% 25% 20%
Total Revenue 11,759 21,461 24,578 31,536 53,823 81,462 106,979 137,266 173,854 218,085 265,414
83% 15% 28% 71% 51% 31% 28% 27% 25% 22%
By segment
Automotive 10,643 19,906 23,047 29,542 51,034 77,553 122,227 152,258 187,910 233,177 278,275
% growth 87% 16% 28% 73% 52% 58% 25% 23% 24% 19%
Energy generation and storage 1,116 1,555 1,531 1,994 2,789 3,909 6,130 7,398 9,651 12,420 16,554
% growth 39% -2% 30% 40% 40% 57% 21% 30% 29% 33%
Total Revenue 11,759 21,461 24,578 31,536 53,823 81,462 128,356 159,656 197,561 245,597 294,829
% growth 83% 15% 28% 71% 51% 58% 24% 24% 24% 20%
Automotive
US
Number of vehicles delivered 50,067 197,517 195,125 292,902 301,998 536,069 750,497 975,646 1,268,339 1,585,424 1,902,509
% growth 295% -1% 50% 3% 78% 40% 30% 30% 25% 20%
Average revenue per vehicles 0.11 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.065 0.065 0.065 0.067 0.068
US Automotive Revenue 5,631 13,794 11,865 14,245 22,731 38,607 48,645 63,642 82,442 106,223 129,794
% growth 145% -14% 20% 60% 70% 26% 31% 30% 29% 22%
China
Number of vehicles delivered 42,715 147,997 471,462 439,770 659,655 857,552 1,029,062 1,234,874 1,481,849
% growth 246% 219% -7% 50% 30% 20% 20% 20%
Average revenue per vehicles 0.065 0.042 0.028 0.039 0.036 0.035 0.037 0.036 0.036
China Automotive Revenue - - 2,793 6,241 13,127 17,274 24,031 29,601 37,811 44,328 52,930
% growth 123% 110% 32% 39% 23% 28% 17% 19%
Other international
Number of vehicles delivered 58,651 162,712 338,012 439,416 571,240 685,488 822,586 987,103
% growth 177% 108% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20%
Average revenue per vehicles 0.154 0.093 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.067 0.067
Other Automotive Revenue - - - 9,056 15,177 21,672 28,173 36,625 43,950 55,113 66,136
% growth 68% 43% 30% 30% 20% 25% 20%
FSD subscription users Assume 20% of the Tesla owners in US would subscribe FSD 225,149 292,694 380,502 475,627 570,753
30% 30% 25% 20%
Average revenue 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.02 0.02
FDS Revenue 21,377 22,390 23,708 27,513 29,415
Total vehicles delivered 103,100 245,200 367,500 499,550 936,172 1,313,851 1,849,567 2,404,437 2,982,889 3,642,884 4,371,461
% growth 138% 50% 36% 87% 40% 41% 30% 24% 22% 20%
Average revenue per vehicles 0.103 0.081 0.063 0.059 0.055 0.059 0.066 0.063 0.063 0.064 0.064
% growth -21% -23% -6% -8% 8% 12% -4% -1% 2% -1%
FDS Revenue 21,377 22,390 23,708 27,513 29,415
Total Automotive Revenue 5,631 13,794 14,658 29,542 51,034 77,553 122,227 152,258 187,910 233,177 278,275
% growth 145% 6% 102% 73% 52% 58% 25% 23% 24% 19%
Assumption
1. Energy generation and storage revenue only available in U.S.
2. Service revenue and FSD software fee are included in the automotive sales
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 10.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 10th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
·
FSAP OUTPUT: VALUATION MODELS
Analyst Name: enter analysts' names
Company Name: enter company name
Net Cash Flow from Operations 29,824.6 29,632.7 35,590.8 47,969.0 55,742.8 45,653.5
Decrease (Increase) in Cash Required for Operations -6,557.2 -6,826.3 -7,395.1 -16,639.0 -24,176.6 -7,682.3
Net Cash Flow from Investing -8,406.4 -9,193.0 -10,350.2 -13,272.8 -16,169.9 -11,624.4
Net CFs from Debt Financing 1,685.7 2,005.2 5,213.0 5,540.2 10,866.5 3,105.9
Net CFs into Financial Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net CFs - Pref. Stock and Noncontrolling Interests 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.3 25.8 0.0
Free Cash Flow for Common Equity 16,570.6 15,642.9 23,083.2 23,622.8 26,288.7 29,452.6
Sensitivity analysis for the market-to-book approach should be identical to that of the residual income approach.
Net Cash Flow from Operations 29,824.6 29,632.7 35,590.8 47,969.0 55,742.8 45,653.5
Add back: Interest Expense after tax 96.6 111.4 1,339.0 159.8 3,998.1 4,397.9
Subtract: Interest Income after tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Decrease (Increase) in Cash Required for Operations -6,557.2 -6,826.3 -7,395.1 -16,639.0 -24,176.6 -7,682.3
Free Cash Flow from Operations 23,364.0 22,917.8 29,534.7 31,489.8 35,564.4 42,369.1
Net Cash Flow from Investing -8,406.4 -9,193.0 -10,350.2 -13,272.8 -16,169.9 -11,624.4
Add back: Net CFs into Financial Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Free Cash Flows - All Debt and Equity 14,957.6 13,724.7 19,184.5 18,217.0 19,394.5 30,744.7