Mastery Program Module Four

Active Trading Masters Program
Section Four:
The Trading Plan and the Game Plan
tradingeducationblogs.com Active Trading Masters Program 1

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Active Trading Masters Program:
How to Trade with Conviction
The Money Management

Trading Plan & Risk Management
Part Four:
Trading Strategy
Assessing and Applying

Searching for Trade Ideas
Probability
& the Game Plan
Risk & Reward

Recap: Path to a Trading Plan
Entries
Trade Management
Exits
Trend Lines Multiple Time Frames:

Moving Averages Getting in Sync
Candlesticks Assessing Potential
Institutional Accumulation or Distribution Mark Up or Mark Down are

Supply Or Demand are Periods of Trends with
Is Order Flow Consolidation with Volume Light Volume Pauses

….For Developing Your Trading Plan
• Price action phases within Institutional Order Flow occur in all time
frames (mark-up, mark-down, accumulation, distribution).
• To make the high probability trade you must choose:
Which time frames of order flow and trend will be your universe.
A singular method to identify opportunities (trend lines, moving
averages or candlesticks).
• Order flow and trend are generally the two higher time frames
above your entry time frame.
• To trade with conviction you must choose how you plan to win.

Trading Plan: Strategic Choices
Combination of:
Conditions that match your concept, entries, exits and
money management parameters

Strategic Elements
• Strategy points you in the right direction, the “real” reason to be in a
trade.
• Set of rules and conditions that will get you in and out of the market.
• Conditions define your edge.
• Two sets of conditions: Idea generator, entry and exit scenarios (exits
imply profit taking and or loss).
• Takes into consideration market/stock criteria.
• Takes into consideration potential risk reward in relation to objectives
and resources.

entries
• Volatility breakout, consolidation or trend reversal.
• Time based, chart based, volatility based.
• Chart based patterns: flag, channel breakout, significant chart level,
wedge pattern, 1-2-3, moving average crossover, test of support or
resistance.
• *** must be very specific, not necessary to use all of them, know
which ones you are comfortable trading (this includes considering
initial risk).

Exits: trade management
• Initial stop loss: must be based on an acceptable dollar amount and
volatility…
• ** How to determine dollar amount?
• Break even: when do you move initial stop to break even?
• Adding to trades: How do you know you should build a position and
when would you do it?
• ** this will all be documented and monitored in your game plan.

Stops and idea validation
• Re entry will be significant for shorter term ideas
• Wider stops for bigger targets (think swing trading or choosing to trade
stocks that have a larger range)
• How will you determine if a trade idea is still valid if you get stopped out
for a loss? What would make you reenter the same position?
Analysis tools to validate an idea:
General market, market internals, sector, industry, your stock.
Order flow, your traded trend, multiple time frame analysis.
• Are will you willing and ready to make the same trade multiple times taking
small losses until it pays off?
• ** when you get to this stage you have confirmed a belief in the
probabilities of your edge and your ability to follow your plan!

Profitable exit considerations
• Two types: (very different thought processes!
1. Exit into momentum scaling out and trading around a core position.
(more active)
2. Trailing a winning position and exiting on a predetermined pull back
(less active requires patients for both setups and giving the trade
time to play out)
3. Trailing a winning position will create larger draw downs but bigger
winners (must mentally be OK with this).
4. ** A “draw down” occurs when profits in an open trade diminishes.

Choosing time frames: deciding where you can win
• Generally speaking:
Swing traders will monitor the monthly and weekly charts and time on the daily
(and possibly the 60 min depending on goals).
Active Traders who plan to hold trades intra day to 2 days operate on the weekly
and daily charts and time on the intra day.
If the monthly is in sync with your idea this gives you more conviction.
Short-term intra day momentum or scalping type trading plans should use the
daily, hourly and enter on lower time frames.
• It is imperative you choose the time frames that matter to you or you will hesitate
and mix trade management goals.
• Moving from intra day position trader to intra day scalper back to position trader
is extremely difficult to do.
• Choose your playing field and dominate it.

Choosing how you plan to identify opportunity
• Trend Lines: • Moving Averages: • Candlesticks:
Easy to identify order Easy to use: 5ema, Simple set up
20sma, 50sma
flow & trends Easy to recognize
Multiple applications for
Keeps you grounded trends, strength of opportunity
and engaged in price trend, entry and exit
triggers, potential Always in tune with
action support and resistance the most current price
Can be time Multiple types- action
consuming to use exponential vs. simple Reduces monitor real
Worthless in non- estate
trending markets
Actual price points vs.
Tend to be lagging subjective
indicators

Trend Lines
in MTFA

20 SMA
in MTFA

20 & 50 SMA
in MTFA

Candles:
well-bid
well-offered
targets
inside candles
entries
exits
in multiple
time frames

daily
CVX monthly
Using all three

analysis tools
candles
moving weekly
averages
trend lines

monthly weekly
Complete multiple time frame set up

What do you plan to do when your order flow
and trend is different?
• Your “A+” trade set ups are when order flow and trends are in sync in
multiple time frames
• Your best trades will be when your lower time frames offer an
acceptable risk for potential profits in the direction of a clear order
flow and trend on the higher time frames
Do you stay away until an entry triggers in your chosen time frames?
Do you drop to lower time frames for a new trend?
MENTOR ADVICE: It will be very tempting to switch to lower time
frames, I would avoid doing it until you have mastered decision
making skills and are consistently profitable on your A+ set ups

• How to be profitably patient
• Plan to reset your trading edge
every 60 minutes
• Do not look for entries on the 5 or
15 until the hourly candle resets
to match order flow and trend

In case you are new to trading and
do not have the experience to grasp
the enormity of the previous page…
I promise you the strategy you just

learned is million dollar advice…
Go back one page, replay the video

and take good notes…

The Trading Plan
Giving Structure to Your Strategy and Risk Guidelines

Core Trading Plan Concepts
• The trading plan is a set of rules of when to exit and enter trades.
• Also includes how much capital will be at risk per trade and proper
share size for the idea based on the entry and stop loss parameters.
• Most consider a trading plan to be the business plan for a trader.
• Keeps you focused on only those opportunities that match your
strategy (as opposed to making random trades).
• Gives you a clear reason for each trade.
• Outlines your money management plan.
• **The reason most traders do not write a plan is they don’t want to
commit to a strategy. They want to trade everything.
Two basic elements of the trading plan
Trading System: defines your edge Money Management: defines risk
• Criteria for stock selection • Risk levels
• Scenarios that you believe to be • Position sizing
high-probability based on your • Number of positions and how to
strategy allocate capital per position
• Outlines entry and exit signals • Trading style will dictate trade
• Stop-loss placement management (scalp,
• Profit targets momentum, position trading)

How to Benefit From Your Trading Plan
• Build a plan that allows you to focus on your strengths
• Helps you avoid emotional and spur of the moment decisions
• Allows for risk taking consistency with criteria that matches the
market conditions with your current capital and risk profile
• Set exact guidelines for when to avoid being in the market
• Set exact scheduling for when you plan to coordinate your Game Plan
and when you plan to review your trading performance
• Create a plan with the fictional intention of raising money from your
oldest relatives who need the money to live.

Why most trading plans end
up not being followed…
The majority of traders attempt to trade all strategies, scenarios and
market conditions with limited resources and experience.
There is no focus on an edge,

effectively rendering a plan worthless.

Outlining Your Trading Plan
How do you define your edge, what is your system?
How will you define profit and loss targets?
Which time frames matter to your edge?
Which entry signals will you look for? (difficult to expect to use all of them)
How do you identify your “A+” trades and how will you trade them differently?
How does your edge factor into trade management? (trade duration)
What are your money management parameters?
Will you trade both long and short?
What is your criteria for stock scanning?
What is your max loss per day or trade?
How many positions will you manage at once max?
Outlining Your Trading Plan 2
Do you plan to carry over-night positions?
How do you plan to manage winning trades? SMA cross-over, book profits
after a certain dollar amount, hold to the close, hold to your profit target,
hold until higher-time frame stochastic is at an extreme.
What time of day are you planning to review the day and journal?
What time of day do you plan to create your Game Plan and run your
scans?
Do you plan to run new scans intra-day or do you plan to only trade the
ideas you had coming into the day?
Do you plan to trade the news?
How will you route your orders for maximum efficiency; both for getting
shares and for reducing costs by using ECN’s?

Start Here: gather your resources
• Time: training, planning, trading, review, continuing education and
networking, projections for personal financial responsibilities and
available cash
• Capital: risk capital in relation to funding your account and living
expenses
• Current education: Books, courses, seminars, online course, chat
rooms
• Future education: How will you improve? FIND a MENTOR.
• Current experience: real world (how much did you journal and learn
from your own personal trading experience)

How to honestly assess your resources
1. Time: How much time can you devote to active
trading?_______________
2. Capital: Risk $_____ living expenses $_____
3. Do you have enough to live and trade?
4. Current skill level based on your training, experience and results up
to this point: 1= newbie 10 = trading master #____
5. Trading Plan: is it detailed enough that you could hand it to
someone and raise money?

When it will start to click for you…
• Finally learned trade management is more important than trade entry (can
work entries in a good idea)
• Finally learned trading is NOT about being right on a trade by trade basis,
but over many good ideas and NOT putting too much emphasis on
individual trade results
• Finally understanding how to learn from my winners and build a trade
expectation
• Finally understanding consistency comes from clearly defining my strategy,
and flawless performance executing my strategy
• Results come from flawless performance which I can control, I can’t control
or predict the next move (powerful concept to remember)
• It is profitable to sit out conditions that don’t match my edge

Self Analysis
1) How would you rate your market knowledge?
2) How would you rate your trading knowledge?
How will you improve both of the above?
1) What are your psychological strengths and weaknesses in relation to
developing your trading system? (specific to your Concept)
2) What strengths and weaknesses in terms of personal discipline that you
will bring to your trading.
3) Do you have emotional or financial issues that may affect your ability to
focus or trade effectively or follow your plan?
If yes, how will you address this situation?

Understanding Key Trading
Concepts And Markets
Clarifying your goals and objectives
before you begin writing your trading plan

Thinking strategically
• Define your passions:
• What part of trading do you love?
• What do you love to learn/find fascinating when trading?
• What style do you “think” you want to trade? (very often this is
different from what you think after you do some planning)
• What skills are needed to succeed at this?
• How do you plan to improve the skills you already have?
• How do you plan to develop the skills you don’t have?

Defining your trading goals and objectives
• How much money do you have personally?
• How much can you afford to invest in your trading business? This includes capital
to trade and living expenses.
• How much money do you need to earn each year? Do you need to earn all of
that from trading?
• What if you don’t make enough from trading to live off of?
• What are your contingency plans and when will you take action on this?
• How much do you expect to make as a percentage of your trading capital? (prop
traders as well)
• What risk level are you willing to accept to achieve that?
• What is the largest drawdown you are willing to accept on a daily, weekly and
monthly basis?
• How will you know your plan is working or not working? Who can you ask for
advise or mentoring?

Money management
Defining your risk for each trade and managing leverage.
Discovering that preservation of capital is your first priority

Keys to the treasure chest
• Simply put:
1. Money management is how much capital you are going to
put at risk for each trade.
2. Risk management is how you will put that capital to work
regarding trade management and share size. (this is your
trading plan)
• Good trading creates income, good trading with proper
money management creates wealth

Definitions
• Money Management: Is the proper use of capital. How much of your
account equity will be at risk on the next trade.
• Takes into consideration trade probability and the value of your entire
account.
• Risk Management: Taking small losses and managing the rewards in
relation to the potential risk.
• Entry point: setups that get you into the market based on your structure of
price action.
• Exit point: Planned price objectives and price action scenarios that will
dictate immediate action. These exits are stop loss areas and profit targets.
• Share size for initial trade entry will be determined by above before the
trade

Money Management Formula
• Proper money management is the foundation for long
term profitable trading.
• It is one of the few components of a trading plan that
the trader has complete control over.
• A good money management formula will teach you to
determine a dollar amount to risk.
• This dollar amount must be a number you are
comfortable placing at risk for each trade.

Being prepared to accept risk.
• There is a very important reason for your need to accept this dollar amount
before the trade.
• If the trade should happen to not be a winning trade and you need to
execute a stop loss, you will execute it flawlessly because you have already
accepted the risk. The dollar amount.
• In other words, “if this trade moves against me, I am okay with losing or
risking $X because of the potential profit.”
• Most traders turn small losses into big losses because they are not prepared
mentally to exit a trade that is not working. They are only ready to book a
profit!

The 2 % Formula:
calculating risk amount and position size
• No more than 2% of your equity should be lost on any individual trade.

• Note this does not mean only 2% of your equity should be allocated to a
trade. It means no more than 2% should be at risk on any one position.
• Note we are talking about your equity here (cash), not your buying power.
• The 2% Principle limits trader losses, preserves capital and gives the
trader a definite dollar amount at risk, based on account size, before
entering a trade.
• You can adjust this up or down depending on your personal risk tolerance.

The 2% calculation and determining share size
1. Multiply equity balance x 2%. This will give you maximum dollar risk per
trade.
2. Determine the difference between your stop loss point from entry price.
3. Calculate position size:
• Maximum dollar risk per trade divided by the difference between the entry
price and stop loss point.
• The beauty and simplicity of this method is that it completely neutralizes
the volatility of expensive stocks that can move quickly.
• Whether you are trading a $15 stock or a $150 stock it doesn’t matter! You
are risking the same dollar amount, the risk amount and stop loss will tell
you how many shares.

share size calculation
Position size =
[2% of equity balance /(entry price – stop loss point)]
• For example:
1. Equity balance = $5,000. 2% x $5,000 = $100
2. Entry price =$20.20, stop loss = $20. This is a .20
difference.
3. $100 / .20 = 500 shares for this position.

Average dollar profit per trade
• As you gain experience and a track record you will have a better idea
of how much profit you “usually” earn on winning trades on average.
• When you reach this level of experience you will risk a certain
amount based on your average profit per trade.
• Most professional traders are willing to risk on a trade what they feel
they can make relative to their history.
• After trading for several months, you should calculate your average
cost to trade, including software, losses, subscriptions and such so
you know to the dime what it costs to run your trading business.
(quarterly is usually a good reference)

Successful Money Management
• Starts with knowing your probabilities inside and out. It’s more than simply
calculating a number to risk.
• You must accept the fact that some trades simply have higher odds of
making money… and then earn more on those ideas.
• Professional traders know when the odds are in their favor and will allocate
MORE when the odds get better.
• Identifying these conditions in your strategy is a must goal.
• If the odds are not good, you should not risk the same amount if you
should risk anything at all.
• #1 Goal after strategy and edge: How to assess risk in relation to potential
reward and make trades accordingly.

How Mindset Affects Money Management
• Professional traders don’t mind losing, they understand it’s a part of the
process.
• For you to accept this concept you must always remember you are making
one trade of many that allows your edge to play out over time.
• The proper mindset is “I want to trade my edge as often as possible.”
• Your edge has a better chance of producing for you over 100 trades than it
does over 10. As long as your money and trade management is focused on
probabilities and preserving capital.
• You should never mind one losing trade because if you stick to your rules
you will make it back over a large sample of “good trades well managed.”

Money Management and Mindset Continued
• Making the right trade over time is more important than making
money each trade.
• It is impossible to make money on every trade and it is also not
necessary to earn consistent money.
• Taking accepted losses for a few trades in a row is good trading. You
are preserving capital and allowing the odds of your edge to have a
larger sample size to work.
• Holding losing trades, cutting profits short and not trading bigger
when the odds are better are your primary obstacles to overcome.
• To conquer them it all boils down to believing in probabilities.

Obstacles to Successful Money Management
• The biggest obstacle unprofitable traders need to climb is placing too
much emphasis on the results of each trade.
Most do this for two reasons:
You need money immediately. (money countdown clock is ticking)
You have gigantic ego and you expect to always be right.
Good traders:
1) Manage risk trade by trade but
2) Set up each trade based probabilities of profit
3) Focus on the probabilities of their edge over time

How a Belief in Probabilities Makes You Better
Start with the context of Large Sample:

“A large sample of high- This removes the pressure of
probability trades managed each trade needing to make
well= long-term success.” money.
High-Probability Trades: Managed Well:

You believe your edge works Proper risk and leverage
more often than not and you managed well based on
only take those trades. probability.

When you believe in your edge over time and in your
ability to trade only those ideas and manage risk,
profitable trading is a matter of sample size and not
individual trade results.
This means you will realize, to make more you need to

trade your edge as often as possible to allow the
probabilities to do their work.
For active traders, learning to trade multiple positons

is a must to make this happen.

How this Concept Will Affect Each Trade
• When you trade from a point of view, that each trade is simply one of many
for this year, you will never hesitate entering the next trade nor will you
hesitate taking a pre determined loss.
• This is because you are trading the probabilities, not this outcome.
• Why would you hesitate entering?
• Because you aren’t 100% sure this trade will “work.” You don’t want to lose
money on this trade. Instead your mindset should be: “each trade with an
edge must be executed flawlessly to allow my edge to work over time.”
• Why would you hesitate taking a loss?
• Because you never accepted the dollar amount risk as a cost of doing
business and now are trading your opinion.

How do You Know You Believe in Your Edge?
• Secret answer that you must watch the video for!
• “I believe in my edge completely when I ___________ to trade my

_______without hesitation despite the ____________ of my most
recent trades…”
• “It is more ____________ to know what I am_____ to do ______,
than it is to know _______ is _______ to _______ next…”

How do You Know You Believe in Your Edge?
• Secret answer that you must watch the video for!
• “I believe in my edge completely when I continue to trade my strategy

without hesitation despite the results of my most recent trades…”
• “It is more important to know what I am going to do next, than it is to
know what is going to happen next…”

The Game Plan
Identifies which stocks and markets fit the criteria of your concept and
determines how you will trade them

Game Plan thought process
• Goal is to be prepared, not reacting
• Look for ideas during NON market hours.
• **Have a DEFINITE idea if the best Game Plan is to be a buyer or
seller today (do not switch back and forth).
• Market hours should be for executing well thought out ideas,
exploiting your edge Scenarios from your Trading Plan.
• Plan your contingencies, trade review and risk management.

Big Picture Outline of Game Plan Workflow
Sectors:
Time Frames: Market: Basic materials, Conglomerates
Monthly SPY Consumer goods, Financial
Weekly DJIA Healthcare, Industrial Goods
Services, Technology
Daily NASDAQ Utilities
Leaders within
Order Flow
Industries those industries and
Significant levels
Sub groups within sub groups
Probability
those industries Volume and intraday
Best idea
“trade-ability”

Game Plan Choices: Choosing Stocks to Trade
1) Top-down Analysis: Market, sectors, industries then choosing
leading stocks from industries trading in sync with the market
2) Technical Scanning: Scan all stocks for technical patterns and criteria
with no parameters to market correlation
3) Personal Universe-then technical scanning
4) News Plays: Earnings, upgrades, downgrades, FDA announcements,
unexpected C-level news, interest rate changes, etc
• ** All trades should always have a pre-scan filter for volume and
volatility to match your resources

Top Down Analysis Sequence
Market Review Sector Scanning
• Scan the major indices (Dow Industrials, • Scan major sectors or industry for obvious
NASDAQ and S&P500) using MTFA MTFA set ups: Trend or Pause?
• Is the overall market in an uptrend, • Identify the liquid stocks in those sectors
downtrend or no trend? and make note if they are similar to the
sector chart. These stocks will go in your
• Where are they in relation to the 50SMA list for tomorrow.
and 200 SMA on the daily charts? This • Which sectors were the strongest or
will clue us into a longer term bullish or weakest today?
bearish bias. • Which sectors have been the strongest or
• Is there confirmation or divergence on weakest this week? This month? This
the daily charts? Quarter?
• How is today’s volume? Does recent price • Are they setting up a trade for tomorrow?
action and volume indicate accumulation, A test, a flag, consolidation, or candlestick
entry signal?
distribution or continuation?

A Note on Relative Strength Plays
• Relative strength refers to whether or not your stock is trading in sync with
the market.
• In some cases it could mean the industry as well but generally it means the
general market.
• It’s a well-known fact that a rising tide lifts all boats and the same is with
the market. You can expect to get better follow through.
• When you do your game plan or are trading make note of which stocks are
in sync and plan to trade those with a higher expectation.
• Make note of stocks NOT rallying when the market goes higher and plan to
short-sell those if and when the market reverses.
• These stocks already have a supply bias and should sell harder to the
downside. It is not the best idea to short-sell strong stocks.

Game plan components
• Which stocks meet the criteria and offer profit potential based on
your Trading Plan
• Ask: “is it a good idea? Is it a good idea now?”
• Define YOUR possible entry scenarios
• Define all possible trade management scenarios (higher open, lower
open, flat open and what you will do)
• Define all significant levels to trade around
• Define loss targets and stop targets

Additional Game Planning considerations
• Is this a good idea right now? What would make it a great idea?
• Has volatility changed? How do I know this? How do I plan for that?
• What Macro news do I need to know?
• What sector related news do I need to know?
• How did the market trade over night?
• Where do I expect the market to open today?
• What do I Plan to do if it does or does not open as I planned?

Trade Scenarios: examples of ideas for your next trading day
• I will buy a test of the two day low in the morning. I expect this to
be support.
• The stock has been up four consecutive days and is coming into
resistance. I will sell short if the resistance holds on the open.
• Volume breakout from consolidation today, I will expect follow
through tomorrow.
• A melted candle formed in this stock today after a three day
pullback, I will trade it long above the opening range tomorrow.
• Relative strength play: I will look to short these stocks tomorrow if a
weak market or buy these if a strong market tomorrow.

Potential Trade Scenarios to Game Plan
• Swing high: down trending day tomorrow
• Swing low: up trend day tomorrow
• Melted candle: indecision at the end of a 5 candle momentum move. Look for
better opportunity.
• Bullish U-turn: up trend day tomorrow
• Bearish U-turn: down trend day tomorrow
• Inside Day: break out or break down of yesterdays trading range
• 20 day break out or break down. If it is a “real” break, you should see light
volume pauses leading to a continuation of the breakout direction. If you do
not see this by 9:45-10am, expect a U-Turn type of day and many traders
caught on the wrong side of the break out or breakdown.

Key support and resistance levels to monitor
• Test of opening range high or low
• Test of today’s high or low
• Test of yesterday’s high or low
• Test of high or low for the week
• Test of 20 day high or low
• Test of any other significant support or resistance level on the daily
charts.

Game Plan Management: Intraday
• The CORE CONCEPT here is to NOT look for trading ideas during the
day. Do not trade against an obvious order flow or trend until you
have a track record of earning money…
• How do you define and assess profit potential?
• What specifically does it look like to you.
• Match your risk to your ideas to patterns that will allow you to
trade the stock without stress.
• Are you OK with doing nothing?
• How will you know to adjust risk up or down?
• Will you program exits or trade with discretion?

Assessing Probability and Managing Trades
• “Better” trade ideas warrant more attention and capital, learn to
identify them.
• You must learn to translate your game plan into well-executed ideas.
• Developing this skill is crucial to position yourself for long-term
success. Have great ideas before the market opens is not the same as
making money with them.
• In the following video we are going to translate a game plan into
actual trade management drills so you can learn the steps to repeat
your success.

How to convert a game plan into
actual trade management and
thought process…
Game Plan Video

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Active Trading Masters Program

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The Money Management

Assessing and Applying

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Trend Lines Multiple Time Frames:

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Using all three

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Complete multiple time frame set up

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I promise you the strategy you just

Go back one page, replay the video

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There is no focus on an edge,

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• No more than 2% of your equity should be lost on any individual trade.

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Start with the context of Large Sample:

High-Probability Trades: Managed Well:

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