Glaeser 2000
Glaeser 2000
Glaeser 2000
EDWARD L. GLAESER
DAVID I. LAIBSON
JOSÉ A. SCHEINKMAN
CHRISTINE L. SOUTTER
We combine two experiments and a survey to measure trust and trustworthi-
ness—two key components of social capital. Standard attitudinal survey questions
about trust predict trustworthy behavior in our experiments much better than they
predict trusting behavior. Trusting behavior in the experiments is predicted by
past trusting behavior outside of the experiments. When individuals are closer
socially, both trust and trustworthiness rise. Trustworthiness declines when
partners are of different races or nationalities. High status individuals are able to
elicit more trustworthiness in others.
I. INTRODUCTION
A growing body of research suggests that ‘‘social capital’’
influences a wide range of significant economic and political
phenomena. For example, Arrow [1972] and Fukuyama [1995]
believe that the level of trust in a society strongly predicts its
economic success. Putnam [1993] uses Italian cross-regional data
to show that local governments are more efficient where there is
greater civic engagement. In recent years, economists have tried
to identify the impact of social capital by using attitudinal
measures of trust from survey questionnaires. Knack and Keefer
[1997], for example, show that an increase of one standard
deviation in country-level trust predicts an increase in economic
growth of more than one-half of a standard deviation. La Porta,
Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny [1997] find that a standard
deviation increase in trust increases judicial efficiency by 0.7 of a
standard deviation and reduces government corruption by 0.3 of a
standard deviation.1
The great lacuna in this research agenda is the measurement
of trust. Much of the social capital research relies upon attitudinal
survey questions from the General Social Survey (GSS) such as
r 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2000
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6. Fershtman and Gneezy [1998] also use a variant of this game to examine
trust in Israel and find a similar result. They document the importance of group
membership by showing that males (not females) are less trusting of Sephardic
males. In their version of the game, players do not meet one another, and they are
left to deduce ethnic background from their opponents’ last name.
7. We use country of residence at age sixteen as a proxy for nationality.
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TABLE I
AVERAGE LEVELS OF TRUST
Q. ‘‘Generally Speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that
you can’t be too careful in dealing with people?’’
Percent responding that. . .
‘‘. . . most people can be trusted’’
US (1972–1996): 39.9%
US (White): 44.2%
US (Black): 16.1%
US (other races): 26.6%
US (1911–1915 birthyear): 42.3%
US (1961–1965 birthyear): 30.1%
US (no high school diploma): 26.3%
US (high school diploma): 45.0%
US (college diploma): 58.5%
US (college diploma, 1996): 49.7%
US (college diploma and birthyear after 1965): 42.6%
Harvard Undergraduates (1997) 44.4%
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TABLE II
GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY RESULTS
Organization membership
GSS trust (# of types of organizations)
Dependent variable: (1) (2)
Data are from the General Social Survey, 1972–1994. Standard errors are in parentheses. Regression (1)
is a probit. We report derivatives at sample means. Regression (2) is OLS. In regression (1) the constant is the
mean probability at mean values of the explanatory variables. R 2 is pseudo R 2 for regression (1) and adjusted
R 2 for regression (2). Town population is between 2000 and 100,000. Small City population is between 100,000
and 500,000. Big City population is above 500,000. The omitted category for religion is Protestant, no
denomination.
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report that they are more trusting, but Jews, a relatively highly
educated religious group, report that they are less trusting.13
Goldin and Katz [1999] find that the proportion of residents
in an area who were Lutheran in the early part of this century
strongly predicts current measures of social capital. We find that
the proportion of Lutherans in a state is a strong predictor of
state-level trust,14 but that state effects can only explain a small
amount of individual variation in trust.15
Most of these results have multiple interpretations. For
example, the positive effect of education on trust might occur
because more educated people associate with other more educated
people who are, for some reason, more trustworthy.16 Alterna-
tively, education might create individual social capital by raising
social skills or because high status increases the ability to reward
and punish others.
The second regression of Table II repeats this analysis using
membership in nonprofessional organizations—an observable mea-
sure of social behavior—as the dependent variable. Specifically,
this variable represents the number of different types of organiza-
tions in which the individual is a member. The correlation of this
variable with the GSS trust measure is high, and many of the
same patterns continue to hold. For example, the basic cohort,
education, and income effects remain. There are only two real
differences. Age effects peak between 35 and 44, and the race
dummy (Blacks ⫽ 1) now takes a positive coefficient.17 This racial
effect on organization membership follows from the high rate of
religious affiliation of African-Americans.
We have run similar regressions outside the United States.
The positive effect of education on trust and organization member-
ship is close to ubiquitous. Measured trust does not, however,
generally decline for younger cohorts outside of the United States.
We now proceed to our experiments. Putnam and others have
13. La Porta et al. [1997] argue that hierarchical religions reduce social
capital at the country level because the operation of these religions entails less
cooperative interaction between lay people. We see no evidence for this in the
United States. Iannaccone [1991] argues that religion serves a large social
purpose, and we might expect to find significantly more trust among members of
particular religious groups (see also Glaeser and Glendon [1998]).
14. This analysis is available from the authors upon request.
15. Percent Lutheran explains 30 percent of the variation in the mean level of
trust across states.
16. For example, generally acting in a trustworthy manner may be a luxury
good, which is consumed disproportionately by people with high incomes.
17. This finding does not change when we control for the number of children
in the household.
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18. Our recruitment handout and all of our other subject materials (e.g.,
consent forms, instructions, and debriefing forms) are available upon request.
19. The Ec10 students are roughly representative of Harvard undergradu-
ates, since nearly two-thirds of the undergraduates take this course.
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20. In a small pilot study, we found that randomly paired subjects were highly
unlikely to know each other at all. Our nonrandom pairing procedure generates
more variation in social connection.
21. A formal analysis of this game appears in an earlier version of this paper
[Glaeser, Laibson, Scheinkman, and Soutter 1999].
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22. As we intended, all but one of the 47 subjects who were given the chance to
make the scripted promise did so. Our investigation differentiates between people
randomly given the opportunity to promise, not between people who did promise
versus people who could have promised and did not.
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23. Despite this reduction in the incentive to cooperate, we still find that
cooperation is ‘‘too’’ high: 71 percent of our sample of senders send the upper limit of
the amount they are allowed to send (i.e., 15 dollars).
24. See Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak [1964].
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IV. RESULTS
The average amount sent is $12.41, which is 83 percent of the
maximal amount that could be sent ($15). Of our 96 senders, 68, or
71 percent, chose to send exactly $15. However, the amount sent
data still exhibit substantial variation, with a standard deviation
of $4.54. Figure I plots the individual data points, with amount
sent on the x-axis and return ratio on the y-axis. The floating
numbers report the frequency with which a data point was
FIGURE I
The Relationship between Amount Sent and Amount Returned
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25. Appendices 1 and 2 give the means and correlations from the survey and
the two experiments.
26. The dummy variables were chosen so that approximately 50 percent of the
sample had a value of one for the variable. The only child dummy is an exception to
this rule.
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TABLE III
AMOUNT SENT AS A FUNCTION OF SENDER CHARACTERISTICS
Standard errors are in parentheses. All regressions are ordinary least squares.
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27. Our attitudinal survey questions may not measure behavioral propensi-
ties, but may instead measure subjects’ beliefs about social norms. McClelland,
Koestner, and Weinberger [1989] report a distinction between explicit and implicit
attitudes in their study of ‘‘achievement motivation.’’ Explicit responses to an
attitude survey on achievement appeared to reveal beliefs about social norms for
achievement. These self-reports did not reflect durable personal commitments to
action and did not correlate with behaviors that could actually enhance achieve-
ment. Rather than depending on subjects’ explicit self-reports, McClelland,
Koestner, and Weinberger [1989] resorted to an implicit measure. They used
independent judgments of the extent to which subjects’ indirectly obtained thought
patterns displayed associations typical of high interest in achievement. The
explicit measures were uncorrelated with these implicit measures, which did
predict actual behavior. The poor performance of explicit measures may reflect
limited self-knowledge, since much of the thinking process takes place outside of
consciousness (e.g., Nisbett and Wilson [1977] and Hirst [1998]). Alternatively,
subjects may distort their self-reports for presentational reasons. There is a
growing trend (e.g., Banaji and Greenwald [1994], and Greenwald and Banaji
[1995]) toward use of implicit cognitive measures. For example, Spalding and
Hardin [1999] have found behavioral links to implicit but not explicit measures of
self-esteem.
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28. However, the fact that the two significant questions have similar concep-
tual content suggests more than a spurious correlation.
29. Declines in the attitude-behavior link occur when the level of specificity in
the survey question does not match that of the behavior under observation. The
problem is found here in the lack of correspondence between general GSS
questions and specific trusting behavior measured in our two experimental games.
McClelland, Koestner, and Weinberger [1989] found a similar discrepancy between
self-reports of general value placed on achievement and actual behavior to
increase achievement. The problem has been documented in other settings in a
review by Oskamp [1991]. In a meta-study, Kraus [1995] found that certain types
of questions tend to increase attitude-behavior correlation, including those
addressing direct experience and those with a focus on specific issues correspond-
ing to the specific behavior under observation. Both of our predictive questions
meet these two criteria.
30. The index is formed by de-meaning these three variables, dividing by
their standard deviations, and summing the resulting values.
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TABLE IV
MEAN RESERVATION VALUES AS A FUNCTION OF SUBJECT CHARACTERISTICS
Standard errors are in parentheses. All regressions are ordinary least squares.
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31. Unlike the rest of our survey questions, the lost mail question was asked
after the experiment, as part of a debriefing.
32. Behavioral measures of altruism (hours spent on volunteer work or
dollars given to charity) are orthogonal to this redistribution variable.
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vard Square) and high income areas (e.g., Harvard Square). The
strongest connection between the responses to the redistribution
question and reservation value occurs in low income areas. Indeed
there was no connection between the redistribution question and
reservation values for the envelopes dropped in Harvard Square.
Hence, subjects who favor redistribution appear either to believe
that dropping the envelope is an act of charity when the envelope
is dropped in a low income community, or to have greater
confidence in the honesty of low income individuals who find
dropped envelopes.
In the sixth regression we show that there appears to be some
cognitive basis for higher trust. People who say that they have
benefited from the generosity of an anonymous stranger in the
past give more. This suggests that trust does not just reflect
altruism or risk tolerance, but also beliefs about others which are
formed by past experiences.
Turning now from the senders’ trust, we look at the recipients’
trustworthiness. In Table V we examine the effect of recipient
characteristics on the value of return ratio (i.e., amount returned
divided by amount available to return). We add the amount of
money sent over in the first round (i.e., amount sent) as a control
variable and find that this variable has a statistically significant
but economically small positive effect on return ratio. As Figure I
shows graphically, on average recipients return as much as they
are sent. This might reflect reciprocal altruism as in Rabin [1993],
but it might also reflect prevailing norms about fair play.33
These norms were influenced by the promise condition.
Figures II and III plot histograms of return ratio values for subject
pairs in the ‘‘no promise’’ and ‘‘promise’’ conditions. In the no
promise condition 48 percent of recipients returned exactly as
much as they were sent. By contrast, in the promise condition 68
percent of recipients returned exactly as much as they were sent.
But on average return ratio did not vary between the two
conditions. Instead, the promise condition seemed to anchor
responses on the rule, ‘‘send back as much as you were sent,’’
thereby reducing heterogeneity in the distribution of return ratio.
The promise pulled mass away from both the selfish and generous
tails of the distribution.
33. This finding is harder to reconcile with inequality aversion which would
generally imply that senders who send 5 dollars or less should not receive anything
in return. Even if nothing is returned, the sender will have at least as much
experimental earnings as the recipient.
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TABLE V
RETURN RATIO AS A FUNCTION OF RECIPIENT CHARACTERISTICS
Standard errors are in parentheses. All regressions are ordinary least squares.
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FIGURE II
Distribution of Return Ratio in ‘‘No Promise’’ Condition
FIGURE III
Distribution of Return Ratio in ‘‘Promise’’ Condition
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34. One possible explanation for our trustworthiness effects is that people
asked to report how much they trust others must search for information with
which to answer the question. Their first step might be to determine whether they
think people are trustworthy. People regularly overestimate the extent to which
others are like them (the ‘‘false consensus effect’’ [Ross, Green, and House 1977], so
people who are themselves trustworthy would be likely to construe others as
trustworthy. Having decided that others are usually trustworthy, it would be a
reasonable final step to conclude that one’s trust of others was high. Schwarz
[1999] suggests that a process such as this lies at the heart of all attitudinal
self-evaluations.
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B. Social Connections
The social capital literature assumes that social connections
(e.g., clubs, organizations, friendships, etc.) mitigate the free-
rider problem and facilitate cooperative social interaction. In
Table VI we determine whether social connection between sender
and recipient increases trust and trustworthiness in our experiment.
We use two basic measures of social connections: months
since first meeting and number of friends that the sender and
recipient have in common. To lessen the impact of outliers, we
have topcoded the number of months at 36 and the number of
friends at 30. We include both the index of past trusting behavior
and the GSS survey question on trust as added controls.
The first and fifth regressions of Table VI show the effect of
months since first meeting on amount sent and return ratio. The
coefficient in the amount sent regression is significant at the 90
percent level; the coefficient in the return ratio regression is
significant at the 95 percent level. The coefficients are not small. A
one-standard-deviation increase in time known raises amount
sent by 80 cents and return ratio by 5 percent.
In the second and sixth regressions we look at the number of
friends in common. There is a positive, insignificant effect of this
variable on amount sent and return ratio. The economic magni-
tudes of the coefficients, though, are not inconsequential. For
example, ten extra friends apparently raises return ratio by 2.6
percent, at least in our relatively small sample.
In the third and seventh regressions we test whether individu-
als from different countries trust each other less. We find a small
but insignificant negative effect on amount sent, but a large and
very significant effect on return ratio. People are much more likely
to return low amounts if they are facing someone from a different
country. This result is much stronger than the results on social
connection, and it is unchanged when we control for social
connection.
The differences between regressions (3) and (7) pose a puzzle.
If trustworthiness between nationalities is so low, why is trust
itself not affected by national differences within a subject pair?
Perhaps our coefficient in the trust equation is imprecisely
measured. Alternatively, senders may truly fail to infer that they
will receive less back from recipients from a different national-
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TABLE VI
INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL CONNECTION ON AMOUNT SENT AND RETURN RATIO
Standard errors are in parentheses. All regressions are ordinary least squares.
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35. These results support those of Fershtman and Gneezy [1998], but differ in
important ways. First, they examine trust of all people toward a low status
minority and find that there is less trust. Second, their subjects have no possibility
of repeated interaction after the game. Third, they allow no personal contact
between subjects, who must infer ethnicity from the last name of their partners.
Fershtman and Gneezy find no ethnic effects on amounts returned, but they look
only at the effect of the sender being Sephardic, not at any effects of sender-
recipient ethnic similarity on the amount returned.
36. La Porta et al. [1997] argue that ethnic heterogeneity may decrease the
quality of government by limiting the formation of aggregate social capital.
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37. This variable takes on a value of one if the individual has a current
girlfriend or boyfriend and if the individual has had sex with at least one other
person in the past five years.
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TABLE VII
SOCIAL CAPITAL, STATUS, RETURNS
AND THE TO SOCIAL CAPITAL
Financial Financial
Amount Return returns to returns to
sent as a ratio as a sender as a recipient
function function function as a function
of sender of sender of sender of sender
characteristics characteristics characteristics characteristics
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Standard errors are in parentheses. All regressions are ordinary least squares.
38. The impact of the working for pay variable may reflect standard income
effects.
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V. CONCLUSION
Using two experiments, we investigated whether trust, trust-
worthiness, and social capital are characteristics of individuals as
well as groups. Past trusting behavior correlates with trusting
behavior in our experiments. The levels of trust in the two
experiments are weakly correlated with each other. We also found
that two of our attitudinal survey questions about trusting
strangers both predict trust. Hence, trusting behavior has a stable
individual-specific component. However, this component is at best
weakly measured by typical attitudinal questions about trust,
including the widely studied GSS trust question. Trustworthiness
also seems to be stable and is strongly predicted by attitudinal
survey questions about trust (not trustworthiness) and by having
siblings.
In summary, to determine whether someone is trusting, ask
him about specific instances of past trusting behaviors. To deter-
mine whether someone is trustworthy, ask him if he trusts others.
There are two additional sets of results from these experi-
ments. First, social connection strongly predicts trustworthiness
and weakly predicts trust. In particular, national and racial
differences between partners strongly predict a tendency to cheat
one another.
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39. However, aggregation will be much more difficult than for other forms of
capital.
40. Indirect psychological measures of attitudes have been shown to be more
effective than direct measures [McClelland, Koestner, and Weinberger 1989].
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Mean
(standard
Variable name Question/description Answer range deviation)
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APPENDIX 1: (CONTINUED)
Mean
(standard
Variable name Question/description Answer range deviation)
Hours volun- The number of hours spend volun- Positive real numbers 1.95
teering teering per week capped at 60 hours (2.65)
Lend money ‘‘How often do you lend money to More than once a 2.85
friends?’’ week—1 (1.15)
About once a week—2
About once a month—3
Once a year or less—4
Lend possessions ‘‘How often do you lend personal More than once a 2.44
possessions to friends?’’ week—1 (1.18)
About once a week—2
About once a month—3
Once a year or less—4
Lost mail ‘‘Have you or someone close to you Never—1 2.54
recently lost something in the Not in several years—2 (0.99)
mail?’’ Within 1–2 years—3
Within the last 6
months—4
Male Male No—0 0.68
Yes—1 (0.46)
Mean reservation Average of reservation values over 0–10 0.002
value all the envelope drop conditions (1.77)
Only child Only child No—0 0.11
Yes—1 (0.32)
Past windfall ‘‘Have you every spontaneously No—0 0.57
benefitted from the generosity of Yes—1 (0.50)
someone you never knew
before?’’
Pro-transfer ‘‘Personal income shouldn’t be Disagree strongly—1 2.17
determined by work.’’ Disagree somewhat—2 (0.89)
Agree somewhat—3
Agree strongly—4
Promise Promise to return at least as much Agreed—0 0.48
to the sender as sent Didn’t agree—1 (0.50)
Return ratio (Amount returned to sender)/ [0,1] 0.46
(amount recipient received) (0.27)
Sexual partner Does the participant have a sexual No—0 0.17
partner? Yes—1 (0.38)
Stranger (trust ‘‘You can’t count on strangers any- More or less agree—1 1.39
stranger) more.’’ More or less disagree—2 (0.05)
Time since met The number of months the sender Positive real value 2.73
and recipient have known each (7.83)
other. Capped at 36 months
Trustworthy (self- ‘‘I am trustworthy’’ Disagree strongly—1 5.31
reported trust- Disagree somewhat—2 (0.93)
worthiness) Disagree slightly—3
Agree slightly—4
Agree somewhat—5
Agree strongly—6
White White No—0 0.61
Yes—1 (0.49)
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First entries are correlation coefficients. P-values are in parentheses. Last entries are numbers of observations.
First entries are correlation coefficients. Numbers in parentheses are p-values. Third entries are number
of observations.
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Reservation value
Constant 5.82
(0.109)
Post office 2.29
(0.128)
No postage ⫺2.50
(0.116)
Unsealed ⫺2.03
(0.116)
Night ⫺0.98
(0.128)
Porter Square ⫺0.36
(0.116)
Central Square ⫺0.49
(0.116)
Adjusted R 2 0.279
Observations 2850
Standard errors are in parentheses. Results are from ordinary least squares regressions where each
person-condition reservation value is an observation.
EDWARD L. GLAESER
HARVARD UNIVERSITY AND
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
DAVID I. LAIBSON
HARVARD UNIVERSITY AND
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
JOSÉ A. SCHEINKMAN
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
CHRISTINE L. SOUTTER
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
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