Electric Vehicles & the Grid

Session 1 (29 September 2020)

Infocus International
+65 6325 0210
[email protected]

Do not copy or redistribute without written consent of Infocus International and faculty
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 Session 1:
EVs and their
impact on
electricity systems

-1-
 EV market
& charging trends

-2-
Market Push & Market Pull

-3-
 Policy motivations, e.g. India

Government:
“By 2030, not a single petrol
or diesel car should be sold
in the country”.

▪ India is the third-largest crude oil importer in the world

▪ IEA: India’s oil demand grows more than in any country to 2040,
with 65% of growth from transport.
▪ About 1.2m deaths in India each year due to outdoor air pollution
▪ World Bank: total welfare losses equivalent to ~7.59% of GDP

source: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/indias-big-push-to-go-allin-on-electric-vehicles-by-2030-cm786473

-4-
 Types of EV Policy (Subsidy/Support)
▪ Purchase subsidies

▪ Replacement subsidies (“cash for clunkers”)

▪ Waiving taxes
▪ car taxes, road tolls, congestion charges, VAT etc

▪ Licensing Quotas

▪ Future bans on ICE sales

▪ Import Quotas

▪ Industrial strategy

▪ Charging stations mandatory at large petrol & service stations

-5-
 What is an “EV”??
country share

global share

Grid-connected

-6-
Growth in EVs

http://www.ev-volumes.com/

-7-
China

Key stats (2019):

▪ 57% of the global plug-in market

▪ ~1.1 million ‘NEVs’ in 2019 (unchanged from 2018)
▪ ~4.5% share
▪ ~50% are pure BEVs

▪ 70% of global commercial vehicle plug-in market

▪ Targeting 150,000 - 200,000 buses & commercial vehicles in 2020
▪ China is 98% of the global electric bus market

▪ 3 of the top 4 plug-in manufacturers are Chinese

▪ BYD, SAIC, BAIC

-8-
Forecasts: take your pick…

km travelled

vehicles

BP Annual Energy
Outlook 2019

http://www.raywills.net/rtwtechadopt.html

-9-
Drivers & Barriers
Factors for growth…

Ownership: Individual vs. Fleet

Replacement vs. Upgrade

Costs: Up-front vs. Ownership lifetime

New vs. 2nd hand
Current vs. Future (subsidy, tax…)

Policy: Mandate vs. Market

Subsidy vs. Socialisation
Urban vs. Universal

Other?

- 10 -
 Peak Car? (Example Key Trends)

“Only 26% of U.S. 16-year-olds

earned a driver’s license in 2017…
&
The annual number of 17-year-olds
taking driving tests in the U.K. has
fallen 28% in the past decade.”

“Last year, 550 million Chinese took 10

billion rides with the Didi ride-hailing
service.
That’s twice as many rides as Uber
provided globally in 2018.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-28/this-is-what-peak-car-looks-like

- 11 -
BEVs: Materials, Manufacture, Maintenance

source: ING Economics Department (2017)

“BEV manufacture might require

a lot of raw materials, but
requires less labour.

https://thedriven.io/
Highly automated production is
possible for battery packs and
electric motors.”

- 12 -
 How ‘Clean’ are EVs?
Need to consider (extra*) embedded emissions and the electricity supply:

Emissions: embedded & electricity supply

25
conventional (80 gCO2/km)

20 EV (100 gCO2/kWh)

EV (250 gCO2/kWh)
15
Tonnes CO2

EV (500 gCO2/kWh)

10 EV (800 gCO2/kWh)

EV (500 to 200 gCO2/kWh)

5

(NB. Illustrative: assumptions matter!!)

Distance, km

(* i.e. higher manufacturing footprint of BEV compared to ICE vehicle)

- 13 -
 EV Charging Trends (& Complexity!)
Charging rates: Charging plugs:

Typically…
• At home: 3-7kW
• Away from home, AC: 11-43 kW
• Away from home, DC: 50-350kW

Images: zap-map.com

“In the UK, 350kW charging in 50

locations on UK motorways could be
within 50 miles of 90% of UK citizens”
(National Grid)

NB. Very few current EVs can actually use

ultra-fast charging speeds!

- 14 -
Charge Point Types & Ownership

Public Publicly-accessible / “Destination”

(in public spaces, always accessible) (in private locations, public access restricted)
cost, space? business case?

Fast-charging
(strategic locations on main roads)
capacity?

Workplace/Fleet

Private
(location & use)

Domestic Sharing?
capacity?

- 15 -
Key players in the provision of charging

Car OEM
(charging capability in-car)

Chargepoint site owner

Cost of electricity to Consumer

Charging equipment provider
(and/or operator)

Distribution network operator

(grid connection & capacity)
Cost of electricity to site owner

Electricity retailer

- 16 -
 The ‘macro’ impact
of EVs on transitioning
power systems

- 17 -
 Additional Demand for Electricity
Policy Rate of growth?
Cost Number of EVs
Performance
Image x
EV usage (km driven)
Alternatives?
Policy
Cost x
Need
EV efficiency (kWh/km)
Improves?
Technology
=
Electricity used (kWh)
Distributed
generation?
+
+ Other Grid Losses (7-8%)
electricity
demands? =
Required electricity generation (kWh) Growth?
- 18 -
 EV Efficiencies & Ranges
e.g. EPA figures (https://pushevs.com/electric-car-range-efficiency-epa/)
Opposite of ICE

Wow!

EPA figures measure plug-to-wheels consumption, this means that the internal charger efficiency matters

- 19 -
Seasonal Efficiency?

~18 kWh/100km

~22 kWh/100km

Actual user data for Nissan Leaf in the UK… Source: https://scotthelme.co.uk/seasonal-variations-in-ev-efficiency/

- 20 -
 Distances

e.g. Proportion of car trips by trip purpose (England, 2014) Example alternatives…

Home working?

Public (or other) transport?

Online shopping?

Uber & co.? *

* Impacts of car sharing?

• Fewer cars
• Each used more
• Replaced more often
• Public transport substitute?
- 21 -
Example calculation

10 million EVs UK has 31 million cars

x
12,500 km per year UK average (2016)
NB. this has been falling
x
Nissan Leaf, kWh/100km:
20 kWh per 100km 14 (Nissan) to 18 (EPA)

= NB. usual “real world” caveats…

25,000,000,000 kWh per year

8% grid losses
27,174 GWh per year supplied
Compared to:
8% increase UK total electricity
supply (2016):
338,000 GWh

- 22 -
Energy vs. Capacity

27,000 GWh could come from…

▪ 3.2 GW of extra nuclear power (= Hinkley Point C)

▪ 6.2 GW of extra offshore wind (UK target: 30 GW by 2030)

▪ >31 GW of extra UK solar

- 23 -
Q: Do EVs need more power plants?
A: This doesn’t just depend on EVs! (It depends on demand too…)

Data: UK government; note that “electricity supplied” is total supply, including imports and before grid losses

- 24 -
Rates of EV growth: Energy Impact

~11GW

Time?

- 25 -
 Potential EV Impacts in India
E&Y’s modelling of EV growth impacts in three Indian cities:

Source: E&Y (2019)

- 26 -
Charging & Peak Demand (Power)
 64.7 GW
+15.9GW

= “ridiculous case”

= “desirable case”

= “perfect diversity”

+3.1GW
+1.6GW

Demand data is for noon 6th – noon 13th January 2018, from “gridwatch”

- 27 -
 “Too much” and “too little” supply
Electricity production and spot prices in Germany in week 4 2019
Source: https://energy-charts.de (Fraunhofer ISE)
GW €/MWh

German wind capacity

solar

wind

large conventional

exports

• High demand • Low demand

• Low wind • High wind
• High prices Price volatility • Low (-ve) prices
is increasing
- 28 -
Timing, Supply & Demand

Example: a sunny day in California

(March 17th 2019)

Solar, MW

Thermal, MW

Demand, MW

$/MWh

- 29 -
3 Key EV Issues  1 Challenge

1. The additional demand for electricity

2. Constraints on electricity capacity (plants & grid)

3. The “cleanliness” of electricity

Management of EV Charging

- 30 -
THANK YOU
Infocus International
+65 6325 0210
[email protected]

Do not copy or redistribute without written consent of Infocus International and faculty