TA of The Financial Market

TA of the financial market
- Intrinsic value = what the fundamentals indicate something is actually worth based on
supply and demand.
- Paint brush and canvas may have no value in itself, but in the hands of a talented artist,
they can create beautiful images.
- A scalpel can help safe lives in the hands of a gifted surgeon, but in our hands, it is
useless or even dangerous.
- This is just like a chart, it can be extremely useful tool if used as market forcasting with
the right rules!
Support and Round numbers

- When putting SL/TP, remember the psychology of the round numbers. Untuk SL, bakal
banyak yang taro SL di situ, brarti supaya mastiin ga kena, avoid round numbers, SL
below it (under support). Untuk TP, sama juga kalau bisa di bawah round
numbers(under resist)karna blm tentu you’ll reach round numbers target.
- Same goes with limit order, jgn taro di round numbers but place above it, kalo ga high
chance ga kejemput.
Ilmu Tarik garis:

- Trendline harus ditest 3x baru valid. 2 points needed to draw, 3 points to make it valid.
- 2-day closing rule: the valid breaking to trendline. Whether it is breakdown or

breakthrough.
- Bisa Tarik dari bawah tok, bisa Tarik atas bawah making a channel. Bisa juga Tarik
channel within channel kalau trendnya udah patah (bs jadi uptrend atau downtrend)
- Kalau channel break, mau ke atas/bawah cara ngukur naik turunnya dari width of the
existing channel.
Types of Gaps
- Breakaway: occurs at important price pattern, breaking resistance, reversal of trend.
Occurs with heavy volume, the heavier the volume is, the less likely it is to be filled. A
close below an upward gap is a sign of weakness.
- Runaway(measuring): occurs in the middle of the trend, occurs when market is moving
effortlessly on moderate volume. A close below the runaway gap is negative sign in an
uptrend. This gap could measure that the trend is about at halfway point and the
remaining move can be determined by doubling the amount already achieved. Often not
filled.
- Exhaustion: Appear near the end of a market move. After the previous 2 gaps have been
identified, we should be wary of exhaustion gap. When price close under that last gap
within a couple of days/a week, it’s a giveaway that the trend is going bearish.
Major Reversal Pattern

1. Reversal
2. Continuation
Reversal Pattern
Head and shoulders

 Prior trendline lg uptrend, then retrave with light volume (normal)
 When making the head, the volume may be lighter than the rally on left shoulder and
this is where chartist should be cautious.
 Prices then declines below the top of the previous peak at the left shoulder, almost to
the previous low. This is a major warning that something is wrong with the uptrend.(ini
baru left shoulder and head)
 Market rallies again, even lighter volume dan ga bs reach the heist of the head, hence
forming the right shoulder.
 Remember the point of the reversal pattern bukan berarti tunggu konfirmasi break atau
ga. In the first place this pattern exist berarti ada something wrong with the trend.
Antara whales udah mulai exit, or bad news bakal mulai keluar.
Volume HnS
 The head should have lighter volume than left shoulder, this is not the rule tapi the logic
behind it berarti buying pressure udah mulai hilang.
 Right shoulder should be noticeably lighter that the previous two peaks.
 Volume should expand when breaking the neckline.
 Volume rule is more important in IHNS than HNS.
 Price Objective – Ukur top of the head to neckline.
 IHNS might slightly slopes upward, sometimes it is horizontal but the nature behind it is
the same.
Complex HNS/IHNS
 When pattens have two heads or a double left or right shoulders
 Uncommon but have the same implications.
Strategy
 Remember that patterns may fail, it is not a guarantee.
 Most importantly you have to be alert, keep trading losses small and exit a losing trade
asap.
 Quickly recognize trading error and take defensive actions
Triple Tops/Bottoms
 All peaks or throughs are about the same level.
 Implies the exact same thing as HNS and IHNS
 Volume decline with each peak and should increase pas breakdown.
Double Tops/Bottoms
 Makes a formation of M and W
 Volume pattern is similar
 In uptrend, market sets new highs with increase volume, and then declines on declining
volume(normal)
 Next rally however is unable to break previous peak, and begin to fall again. At this point
a potential dotop has been set up.(potential karna at this point ada possibility market
just went sideways)
 Baru bs ditentuin pas closing price break to previous support.
Continuation Pattern
Symmetrical Triangle (neutral)

 Shape like >, garis atas dan garis bawah sama2 miring arah lurus ke kanan.
 It is a continuation pattern
 Minimum requirement bwt triangle itu 4 titik yg kena hit. Dan makin ke ujung makin
lancip.
 Volume harusnya makin kecil as price swings narrow. But volume should increase
noticeably waktu break out.
 Sama kyk reversal pattern, volume is more important on the upside than on the
downside.
 On another note ttp liat harusnya kl uptrend, waktu swing high ttp lebih tinggi
volumenya dibanding waktu retrace.
 Cara measure as usual di sisi yang paling besarnya measure vertically.
Ascending Triangle (bullish)

 Shape: garis atas rata, garis bawah slightly slanted ke atas.
 Shows that buyers are more aggressive than sellers, karna sellers makin lama makin
kecil
 Might appear on the bottom, kalau di bottom berarti bisa jadi reversal. Tapi uncommon.
 Volume makin ke ujung makin kecil but break out on high volume.
Descending Triangle (bearish)

 Mirror image of ascending. Garis bawah rata, garis atas slightly slanted ke bawah.
 Indicates that sellers are more aggressive than buyers
 Kalo ketemu di atas, ada chance that it is a bearish indication.
 Volume makin ke ujung makin kecil but break out on high volume.
Broadening (Toa)
 Shows that market is out of control and unusually emotional. Hence it is a bearish
formation. Generally appear at the end of a major bull market.
Flags & Penant

 Represent brief pause in a dynamic market move
 Sebelum penant/flag biasanya ada sharp and almost straight line move
 Shows that market pauses briefly to catch its breath before running off again on the
same direction.
 Flags looks like a rectangle marked by 2 pararell trend. Biasanya on a bull market, dia
sloping agak turun ke kanan. Kalo on a bear market, dia sloping agak tinggi di kanan.
 Penant look exactly like a mini asymmetrical triangle Cuma bedanya timeframe kecil.
Wedge
 Siilar to symmetrical triangle in shape
 Bedanya dia agak miring ke bawah/ke atas
 Kl sloping downwards berarti bullish(falling wedge)
 Kl sloping upwards brarti bearish (rising wedge)
Volume
 Can act as a warning, always see daily candles if the volume is declining
 Act as a confirmation during breakout
 Remember to see volume as buying and selling pressure, who wins? Bull or bear?
 Check OBV(works similar to divergence)- works for futures

TA of The Financial Market

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TA of the financial market

Support and Round numbers

Ilmu Tarik garis:

- 2-day closing rule: the valid breaking to trendline. Whether it is breakdown or

Major Reversal Pattern

Head and shoulders

Symmetrical Triangle (neutral)

Ascending Triangle (bullish)

Descending Triangle (bearish)

Flags & Penant

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