H2 Chapter 17 Probability Lecture Student Copy 2023
H2 Chapter 17 Probability Lecture Student Copy 2023
H2 Chapter 17 Probability Lecture Student Copy 2023
H2 Mathematics (9758)
Chapter 17 Probability
Lecture Notes
Curriculum Objectives
INTRODUCTION
Perhaps it is man’s desire to win at gambling that has led to the early development of probability
theory. In an effort to increase their winnings, gamblers called upon the mathematicians to
provide the optimum strategies for various games of chance. Some of the great mathematicians
providing these strategies were Pascal, Leibniz, Fermat and James Bernoulli.
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
4. The sample space (or possibility space) S of an experiment is the set of all possible
outcomes of the experiment.
6. An event is a particular situation that can arise during the experiment. An event may be
a single outcome in S or several outcomes, that is, an event is a subset of the sample
space.
7. Equally likely outcomes are outcomes which have equal chances of occurring.
8. "Drawn at random" or "at random" means all outcomes are equally likely to occur.
9. A sample space where all outcomes are equally likely is known as a uniform space.
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Set Notation
1. A B : union of events A and B i.e. event that either A or B occurs (or both)
S
A B
Note:
(i) ( A B) A B (ii) A B A B
S S
A A B
B
A B
AB
A is a proper
subset of B
S
(v) A \ B is the event ‘A occurs but B does not’. A
B
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
§2 Definition of Probability
If the sample space S consists of a finite number of equally likely outcomes, then
the probability of event A written as P(A) is defined as
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Rule 1: 0 P( A) 1
Note:
(i) P 0 i.e. is an impossible event.
E.g. Event B: “Obtaining a score less than or equal to 6 when tossing a fair die”
Since B is a certain event, P( B) 1 .
(iii) If C D, then P C P D .
E.g. Event C: “Obtaining a score of 2 when tossing a fair die”
Event D: “Obtaining a score less than or equal to 3 when tossing a fair die”
Since obtaining a score of 2 is one of the outcomes of obtaining a score less than or equal to
3, C D, hence P C P D .
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 1
A die with score faces 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is weighted such that when the biased die is tossed, the
probability of the score obtained is proportional to the score. Let A be the event “the score is
even”, B be the event “the score is a prime number” and C be the event “the score is odd”. Find
(i) the probability of each possible outcome,
(ii) the probability of P( A ) , P( B ) , P(C ) ,
(iii) the probability of P( A B ) .
Eg 1 Solutions
(i) The probability of outcome is proportional to the score, P( n ) kn , where k is a
positive constant.
P B P 2, 3, 5
P C P 1, 3, 5
(iii) PA B
In general, the following are some strategies deployed in the calculation of probabilities:
Within each method, there will also be the use of laws/ principles and formulae.
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
This method is useful when the number of possible outcomes is small and can be listed out.
Example 2
Two fair dice are thrown and the score on the top face of each die is noted.
Calculate the probability that
(i) the sum of the two scores is 7,
(ii) the product of the two scores is a multiple of 3,
(iii) the product of the two scores is odd.
Eg 2 Solutions
(i) We can construct tables like these:
+ 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 2 4 6 8 10 12
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 3 6 9 12 15 18
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 4 8 12 16 20 24
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 5 5 10 15 20 25 30
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 6 6 12 18 24 30 36
Outcomes with sum of 2 scores is 7 1, 6 , 2,5 , 3, 4 , 4,3 , 5, 2 , 6,1
P sum of 2 scores 7
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
This method is useful when you can define the events separately and clearly.
Example 3
In a cafeteria, 70% of the customers order chips and 60% order salad. If 20% of the customers
order salad but not chips, find the probability that
(i) a customer chosen at random orders chips but not salad,
(ii) a customer chosen at random orders chips or salad (or both).
Eg 3 Solutions
(i) Let C be the event “customer orders chips.”
Let D be the event “customer orders salad.”
S
Given: P(C) = C D
P(D) =
(ii)
Find the probability that of three cards drawn from the deck,
(i) all three cards are even;
(ii) exactly one of the three cards is even.
2 , 15 ]
[Answer: 19 38
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 4
(a) A committee of 5 is to be randomly selected from a group of 6 men and 9 women. Find
the probability that the committee will consist of 3 men and 2 women.
(b) Calculate the number of distinct 8-letter arrangements which can be made with the letters
of the word DRESSERS. If one of these arrangements is selected at random what is the
probability that it will end with RR?
Eg 4 Solutions
(a)
Required probability =
OR
Required probability
No. of ways to form a committee with 3 men & 2 women
Total no. of ways to form a committee of 5
(b)
No. of arrangements that end with RR =
Required probability
No. of arrangements that end with RR
Total number of arrangements without restrictions
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 5
Four cards are drawn at random without replacement from a standard pack of 52 playing cards.
(i) Find the probability that all are clubs.
(ii) Find the probability that there are exactly two diamonds.
(iii) Deduce the probability that at least one of the four cards is not a club.
Eg 5 Solutions
(i) Method 1
P (all are clubs)
P(CCCC )
Method 2
P (all are clubs)
No. of ways to obtain 4 clubs w/o replacement
No. of ways to obtain 4 cards w/o replacement
(ii) Method 1
P (exactly 2 diamonds)
P D ' D ' DD , D ' DD ' D , D ' DDD ', DD ' D ' D, DD ' DD ', DDD ' D '
Method 2
P (exactly 2 diamonds) =
Extension: Would method 2 be applicable if the question was changed to “with replacement”?
Find P( A B) . [2]
[Answer: 0.28 ]
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
§4 Conditional Probability
For example,
Every scholarship candidate is given a rating of either excellent (E) or acceptable (A) for each
of the two criteria of analytical skills (C1) and leadership potential (C2).
Find the probability that a randomly chosen candidate is awarded a S1 scholarship given that
he obtained a rating EE.
120
Then the required probability P(S1 EE ) =
120 70 150
n S1 EE S
n EE S1 EE
n S1 EE reduced
sample
n S space
n EE
n S
P S1 EE
P EE
P A B n A B
P A | B
P B n B
Note:
1. In general, P A | B P B | A . (See Example 6)
2. P A B P B P A | B
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 6
A card is picked at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Given that a heart is
chosen, find the probability that it is a picture card.
Eg 6 Solutions
Method 1 (Full Sample Space)
Let H be the event: “Card is a heart’
Let C be the event: “Card is a picture”
P(C H )
Need P C | H
P( H )
Thus P(C | H )
n(C H )
Thus P(C | H )
n(H )
Extension: Find the probability that a heart is chosen, given that it is a picture card.
P(C H )
Answer: P( H | C ) Note:
P(C )
P( H | C ) P(C | H )
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
§5 Independent Events
Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of A does not affect the
occurrence of B and vice versa.
For example, consider an experiment: 'Toss a coin and throw a die simultaneously.'
Eg 7 Solutions
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive (i.e. disjoint) if they cannot occur
simultaneously. There is no intersection between the events A and B (i.e. A B = ).
S
A B
Event A Event B
1 a head appears when tossing a coin a tail appears when tossing a coin
the card is a club when a card is drawn the card is a diamond when a card is drawn
2
from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards
For example, consider two fair dice being thrown, and events A and B being defined as follows:
A : the two scores are equal
B : the sum of the two scores is odd.
Are A and B both mutually exclusive? If so, give a reason.
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 8
A card is drawn from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that the card is
(a) a club or a king, (b) a club or a diamond.
Eg 8 Solutions
(a) Let C be the event ‘the card is a club’,
D be the event ‘the card is a diamond’ and
K be the event ‘the card is a king’.
Required Probability
Note:
Since a card can be both a King and a club (King of clubs), hence C and K are not
mutually exclusive.
(b) Required probability =
Note:
Since a card cannot be both club and diamonds at the same time, hence C and D are
mutually exclusive.
Find P B if
(i) A and B are mutually exclusive,
(ii) A and B are independent.
[Answer: 0.4 , 0.5 ]
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
§7 Tree Diagrams
(a) A probability tree diagram is useful tool for calculating the probability of events that can
be broken down into a chain of sequential events.
(b) The root of the trees is usually left blank but is convenient to think of it as representing
the sample space S.
(c) Each node, A, B, D and D ' represents an event.
(d) The number indicated on each branch after the first branch represents the conditional
probability of the event at the end node given that all the events at the previous nodes
have occurred.
For example,
A
P A
D'
D
P B
B
D'
Recall: The probability that D occurs given that A has already occurred is the
conditional probability of D given A and is denoted by P( D | A) .
Note:
1. P( A) P( B ) 1
2. P( D | A) P( D ' | A) 1 ; P( D | B ) P( D ' | B ) 1 ;
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 10
Three machines A, B, C produce 50%, 30% and 20% respectively of the total number of items
of a factory. The percentages of defective output of these machines are 3%, 4% and 5%
respectively.
(i) If an item is selected at random, find the probability that the item is produced by machine
A and is defective.
(ii) If an item is selected at random, find the probability that the item is defective.
Eg 10 Solutions
(i)
D D : item is defective
: item is non-defective
A
D'
D
B
D'
D
C
D'
Required probability
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 11 (N2007/P2/10)
A player throws three darts at a target. The probability that he is successful in hitting the target
1
with his first throw is . For each of his second and third throw, the probability of success is
8
twice the probability of success on the preceding throw if that throw was successful,
the same as the probability of success on the preceding throw if that throw was
unsuccessful.
Construct a probability tree showing this information. [3]
Find
(i) the probability that at least two throws are successful, [2]
(ii) the probability that the third throw is successful given that exactly two of the three throws
are successful. [4]
Eg 11 Solutions
Event S: the throw
(i)
is successful
1st throw
Event S’: the throw
is unsuccessful
S S’
2nd throw ‘
S S’ S S’
3rd throw
S S’ S S’ S S’ S S’
P(at least 2 successful throws)
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Example 12
Jack and Mary plays a game in which a fair coin is tossed. The one obtaining head first wins
the game. If Jack and Mary toss successively with Jack tossing first, find the probability that
(i) Jack wins the game in no more than 5 tosses of the coin.
(ii) Jack wins the game.
Eg 12 Solutions
(i) Let H be the event: “A head comes up”. Let T be the event: “A tail comes up”.
1st toss
H T
2nd toss
H T
3rd toss
H T
4th toss
H T
5th toss
H T
If the coin is tossed no more than five times,
P(Jack wins)
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Summary:
no. of elementsin A n( A)
P( A)
no. of elementsin S n(S)
Results: 1) 0 P( A) 1
2) P(A′) = 1 – P(A)
Addition principle:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
Multiplication principle:
P(A B ) P( A)P( B | A)
Conditional Probability:
P(A B ) n(A B )
P(BA) = or
P(A) n(A)
Events
Occurrence of one event does not
Cannot occur at
affect the occurrence of the other event
the same time
To determine whether two events A and To determine whether two events A and B
B are mutually exclusive, check if are independent, check if
P( A B ) 0 or P A | B P A or
P( A B) P( A) P( B ) PB | A P B or
P(A B ) P( A)P( B )
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Annex:
Proofs of Probability Laws
Law 1: 0 P( A) 1
Law 2:
P A ' 1 P A
Proof:
n(A ' ) n S n A
n(A ') n(A)
1
n(S ) n(S )
P(A ' ) 1 P A
Proof: n A B
P A B
S n S
A B a bc
a c b
n S
a c b c c
n S
n A n B n A B
n S n S n S
P A P B P A B
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
If A and B are two events and P(B) 0, then the conditional probability of A given B
n (A B )
P( A | B)
n (B )
Proof: S P(A B )
P( A | B )
A B P(B )
reduced n(A B ) n(B )
sample
n(S ) n(S )
space
n(A B )
n(B )
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
Warm Up Questions
1 A bag contains 5 blue balls and 4 red balls. Four balls are drawn at random from the bag,
without replacement. Calculate the probability that at least two blue balls are drawn.
2 A random sample of 200 adults is classified below according to gender and their highest
level of education attained.
Male Female
Secondary 38 45
College 28 50
University 22 17
A person is selected at random from this group.
(i) Find the probability that the person is a male, given that the person has a college
education as the highest level of education attained.
(ii) It is known that the person is a female. Find the probability that the person does not
have a university degree as the highest level of education attained.
3
Laptop Games
48 10 55 machine
20
12 15
x
130
Tablet
A group of students are asked whether they own any of a laptop, a tablet and a games
machine. The numbers owning different combinations are shown in the Venn diagram.
The number of students owning none of these is x. One of the students is chosen at
random.
L is the event that the student owns a laptop.
T is the event that the student owns a tablet.
G is the event that the student owns a games machine.
(i) Write down expressions for P(L) and P(G) in terms of x. Given that L and G are
independent, show that x = 10. [4]
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Chapter 17 Probability TMJC 2023
4 N2008/P2/7
A computer game simulates a tennis match between two players, A and B. The match
consists of at most three sets. Each set is won by either A or B, and the match is won by
the first player to win two sets.
Answer Key
1 5
6
2 14 95
(i) (ii)
39 112
3 47 71 3 111
(ii) (iii) (iv) (v)
60 150 10 7475
4 7
(i) 0.5 (ii) 0.512 (iii)
64
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