See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/317767060

Assessing the impacts of climate change on road infrastructure

Article  in  International Journal of GEOMATE · October 2017

DOI: 10.21660/2017.38.72099

CITATIONS READS

7 2,549

3 authors, including:

Erwin Oh
Griffith University
160 PUBLICATIONS   1,186 CITATIONS   

SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Behaviors of Pile Foundation under Various Failures View project

Ground response of fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) tension micro-piles View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Erwin Oh on 25 April 2019.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128
Geotec., Const. Mat. & Env., ISSN:2186-2990, Japan, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21660/2017.38.72099

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ROAD

INFRASTRUCTURE
*Zeshen Shao1, Graham Jenkins1 and Erwin Oh1
1
Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith University, Australia

*Corresponding Author, Received: 4 March 2017, Revised: 25 March 2017, Accepted: 10 April 2017

ABSTRACT: There is an increasing evidence that the earth’s climate is changing with some of the changes
attributable to transport infrastructure. Climate change can have impacts on road infrastructure. The direct
impacts can be due to the effects of environment. Temperature can affect the aging of bitumen resulting in an
increase in brittle failure of the surface seals that represent more than 90% of the rural sealed roads in
Australia. Further, rainfall changes can alter moisture balances and influence pavement deterioration. Brittle
failure of the bitumen causes the surface to crack, with a consequent loss of waterproofing of the surface seal.
The result is that surface water will enter the pavement causing potholing and will cause rapid loss of surface
condition. More frequent reseal treatments will overcome the problem, but this is at a higher cost to road
agencies. Road infrastructure is a long-lived investment. An understanding of the expected impacts of future
climate change by road designers, asset managers and planners, could produce considerable cost savings in
the long term. This research aims to provide an assessment of likely effects on climate change for South East
Queensland region in the next 90 years, and further identify and assess the likely effects of climate change on
road pavement. It can be concluded that, climate change in South East Queensland does play a role in lower
deterioration rates. The findings suggest that decreasing rainfall (decreasing TMI) will slow flexible
pavement deterioration. However, increases in temperature are likely to cause materials to expand to affect
pavement deterioration rates.

Keywords: Climate Change, HDM-4 Model, Pavement, Road Infrastructure.

1. INTRODUCTION term [5]. However, relatively little research has

been completed to investigate the potential impacts
The issue of climate change has been recognized of climate change on pavement infrastructure of
globally as an issue of utmost concern and the SEQ despite the dependence of this region’s
threat of climate change poses problems to all economic and social activity on road transport.
nations of the world [1]. Australia is a hot and dry This paper recognized that road infrastructure in
country and as a result the continent is particularly SEQ region will face great challenges from climate
vulnerable to increases in temperature due to change because of the implications for the design,
climate change [2]. construction and maintenance of road pavements.
The South East Queensland (SEQ) is Australia’s Pavements are designed based on moisture and
fastest growing metropolitan region and the temperature patterns reflecting the history of the
region’s population is approximately 3 million and local climate. With projected climate changes over
an additional 1.1 million new residents are the next several decades, a pavement could be
expected by 2026 [3]. An adequate and efficient subjected to very different climatic conditions over
road network is amongst the most important the design life than was originally expected.
infrastructural features of SEQ region. Changes in rainfall, temperature and evaporation
The road network in Queensland is about patterns can alter the moisture balances in the
180,500 kilometres in length. The state-controlled pavement foundations and also affect the aging of
network is 33,337 kilometres long and has an the bitumen road surfacing layers [6]. Several
estimated replacement value of $54.9 billion [4]. governments and organisations have already
This makes it the largest publicly-owned physical started facing the problem by financing studies and
infrastructure asset in Queensland. This road projects with the aim of finding possible ways to
network is most critical in urban areas where precaution [7]. However, the nature and scale of
access and mobility for transport, freight, and climate change impacts on road pavement will
emergency services are vital. depend on a wide range of variables and will not
As road pavement infrastructure is a long-lived be equally distributed across the landscape [7].
investment and roads typically have design lives of Therefore, a localized comprehensive study of
20-40 year, an understanding of the localized SEQ is required.
expected impacts of future climate change could
engender considerable cost savings in the long

120
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

2. CLIMATE DEFINITION of simulated severity. This severity is based on the

CSIRO estimates of query of the effects of climate
2.1 Climate Tool change on rainfall and temperature. The three
severity levels are lower, average and upper. In
An essential first step in this study is the this study, the upper severity is chosen in order to
construction of a plausible range of future climate investigate the worst case of impact of climate on
conditions, as they are one of the main inputs for pavement deterioration. Although the severity of
pavement deterioration models that are responsible climate may have small effects on individual
for calculating the potential impacts of climate pavement performance, it can have a significant
change. Therefore, quality climate data play a effect on a road network over its life [8, 10].
significant role in this study by providing a
fundamental basis for investigating the impact of 2.2 Climate Data Extracting
future climate on road pavement performance.
With access to complete historical data, the road The climate data can be only extracted based on
pavement/climatic interaction can be better specific GPS co-ordinate. Therefore, the GPS
understood. High quality climate data is also locations of different Long Term Pavements
essential to building, validating and calibrating Performance (LTPP) sites for climate analysis
pavement performance models. Besides, quality purpose have to be defined firstly. Due to the fact
predictions of future pavement performance are that the differences of GPS co-ordinates among the
impossible without knowledge of future climatic LTPP sites within the same city region are minor,
conditions. an average GPS value of LTPP sites located in the
Historical climate data is traditionally obtained same region is adopted for climate analysis of
at weather stations located sporadically around corresponding region. For the purpose of this
Australia it is complicated to identify climate data research, the ‘future’ climate will be defined by
for a point along a road. A more difficult problem analysing projections of climate based on three
is forecasting or simulating future trends due to different time series in 30-year increments.
climate change [8]. Climate in a narrow sense is commonly defined
In this study, Austroads Climate Tool is used to as the “average weather” over a long period of
obtain historical and projected climate data of time. The classical averaging period is 30 years, as
selected locations in SEQ. In 2010, Austroads [8] defined by the World Meteorological Organization
developed a Climate Tool which provides easier (WMO) [1]. Therefore, these three future climate
access to both historical and simulated future data periods are 2008 to 2040, 2041 to 2070, and 2071
from 1960 to 2099. The historical data of Climate to 2099.
Tool was retrieved from the Bureau of
Meteorology database and arranged into a format 2.3 Climate Data Processing
that allows query retrieval based on GPS
information. The future climate data is obtained The climate data extracted from Climate Tool have
from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial to be processed into proper forms as input of
Research Organisation (CSIRO) prediction based Highway Development and Maintenance
on Atmospheric Research and various severity Management System (HDM-4). The major climate
scenarios [9]. inputs required by HDM-4 are: Thornthwaite
The climate tool was designed to extract the moisture index (TMI), mean annual temperature
most common climate data required by a typical (MAT), mean monthly precipitation (MMP),
user. The user can query GPS co-ordinates average monthly temperature range (MTR).
anywhere within form 114.00 to 154.00 for Procedure of climate data processing is described
longitude and -10.50 to -43.50 for latitude, in the following sections.
covering the whole of Australia including TMI and MAT data can be obtained from
Tasmania and surrounding islands [8]. Climate Tool database directly. Historical TMI and
Climate change scenarios are plausible MAT were calculated by taking averages of data
projections of future climate conditions. As such, from 1960 to 2007. The simulated future TMI and
they contain two major sources of uncertainty: the MAT were calculated by taking averages of data in
differences between the projections of different 30-year increments from 2008 to 2099. MMP data
climate models, which reflect our incomplete requires further processing. Historical monthly
understanding of all of the physical processes precipitation data presented based on every single
involved; and the wide variation in predictions of month of each year from 1960 – 2007. Therefore,
the future amount of greenhouse gases in the the historical MMP is calculated by taking the
atmosphere [9]. average of monthly precipitation data from
The range of climate projections from the January to December of every single year.
Austroads Climate Tool presented as three levels

121
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

The simulated future MMP is not provided but environmental conditions, traffic loading, and
only the annual precipitation data so that the future pavement conditions respectively.
MMP is calculated by taking average of the annual Four QTMR LTPP sites located in the Gold
data. MTR is not provided by Climate Tool Coast and Brisbane have been chosen for
directly. It is calculated based on maximum mean pavement deterioration analysis as representatives
monthly temperature and minimum mean monthly of highway and arterial roads. In addition, twelve
temperature extracted from Climate Tool. LTPP sites within Gold Coast, seventeen LTPP
Firstly, the average of maximum monthly sites within Logan, fifteen LTPP sites within
temperature and minimum monthly temperature of Ipswich, nine LTPP sites within Redland, eight
12 months of every single year from 1960-2007 is LTPP sites within Caboolture, and seven LTPP
calculated respectively. Secondly, the difference sites within Caloundra have been selected as
between maximum and minimum monthly representatives of local roads throughout SEQ
temperature from 1960-2007 is calculated based region. Part of the information of all of these LTPP
on previous results. The final range of mean sites collected from QTMR and corresponding
monthly temperature is the average value of the local City Councils are summarized and shown
Second step. from Table 1 to Table 4 below.
In addition to the above climate data, HDM-4
deterioration model also requires the number of Table1: QTMR LTPP Sites
days greater than 32ºC, the duration of dry season, LTPP Block Length
Road Name
and the percentage of time driven on water No. (m)
covered roads. These data are not provided by Pacific Motorway,
Climate Tool. By applying the extreme input data QTMP 1 Southbound (Gold 500
on these items, one can observe that these inputs Coast)
have very minor effects on deterioration rate. Samford Sub-
Therefore, a default value of 90 days greater than QTMP 2 Arterial Road 250
32 ºC, 6 months of dry season, and 5% of time (Brisbane)
driven on water covered roads are adopted for this Moggill Sub-Arterial
study. QTMP 3 280
Road (Brisbane)
Mount Cotton Road
3. HDM-4 DETERIORATION MODELLING QTMP 4 785
(Brisbane)

The HDM-4 model predicts pavement Table 2: Gold Coast City Council LTPP Sites
deterioration as a function of pavement condition, Block Length
traffic loading, environmental effects, and LTPP No. Road Name
(m)
maintenance impacts. In this study, the modelling GCCC 1 Helensvale Road 346
analysis is repeated for road sections with different GCCC 2 Johnston Road 270
traffic levels and various initial pavement
GCCC 3 Dudgeon Drive 650
conditions in South East Queensland (SEQ),
GCCC 4 Xanadu Court 435
therefore identifying the deterioration of
GCCC 5 Shaws Pocket Road 1320
pavements representing different level of road
GCCC 6 Robina Parkway 1520
hierarchy. The pavement condition is expressed in
terms of pavement strength. The traffic level is GCCC 7 Tallai Road 1214
expressed in terms of the annual average daily GCCC 8 Lords Avenue 340
traffic (AADT) and the composition of traffic. GCCC 9 Cheltenham Drive 941
GCCC 10 Studio Drive 860
3.1 Road Section Characteristics GCCC 11 Tallebudgera Drive 386
GCCC 12 Larch Street 400
A number of different flexible pavement road
sections within the SEQ region have been selected Table 3: Logan City Council LTPP Sites
for HDM-4 pavement deterioration modelling. LTPP No. Road Name Block Length(m)
There road sections are part of LTPP sites used by LCC 1 Chambers Flat 439
Queensland Department of Transport and Main LCC 2 Browns Plains 556
Roads (QTMR) and Local City Councils for their LCC 3 Middle 542
own management purposes. LCC 4 Station 674
These chosen LTPP sites represents a range of LCC 5 Watland 522
typical road hierarchy including highway, arterial LCC 6 Service 398
road and local road. They are defined by a unique LCC 7 Passerine 580
set of location, age, geometric characteristics, LCC 8 Lawnton 417
LCC 9 Vansittar 470

122
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

LCC 10 Sports 320 represent the traffic composition must be taken

LCC 11 Demeio 528 into account. In this study, despite some of the data
LCC 12 Crest 974 which can be obtained directly from QTMR and
LCC 13 Muchow 446 city councils without further process, some of
LCC 14 Jalan 328 them requires calculation base on proper equations
LCC 15 Federation 282 or reasonable judgments. These procedures will be
LCC 16 Conifer 458 described in detail later this section.
LCC 17 Shailer 464

Table 4: Ipswich City Council LTPP Sites 3.2.3 Input for Pavement Strength
Block
LTPP No. Road Name Pavement strength is a primary determinant of
Length(m)
many pavement structural condition indicators.
ICC 1 Aster 253
HDM-4 recognises this need through the use of the
ICC 2 Commercial 280
Adjusted Structural Number (SNP) as a modelled
ICC 3 Salsibury 385
measure of pavement strength, but a means is
ICC 4 Briggs 298 required for the derivation of SNP from FWD
ICC 5 Thagoona-Haigslea 295 deflection data [10].
ICC 6 Russells 300 The concept of Structural Number (SN) as a
ICC 7 Reif 400 parameter for estimating pavement strength was
ICC 8 Southern Amberley 350 developed from the American Association of State
ICC 9 Purga School 550 Highway and Transportation Official (AASHO)
ICC 10 Augusta 410 Road Test (Highway Research Board) for
ICC 11 Roland 605 pavement design and performance purposes. Then
ICC 12 Lawrie 255 SN parameter is based on the sum of each of the
ICC 13 Ash 304 pavement layer strength coefficients [11]
ICC 14 Peak Crossing 250 multiplied by its respective pavement layer
ICC 15 Duncan 255 thickness.
Modified Structural Number (SNC) is a
modification of the SN parameter to include the
3.2 HDM-4 Data Input and Initial Model Set-up subgrade contribution, SNsg, to pavement
strength. The SNsg component estimates a
3.2.1 Climate data input negative contribution to pavement strength when
the subgrade Californian Bearing Ratio (CBR) is
For modelling any of the above LTPP sites, a less than 3%, and a positive contribution when it
series of climatic data are required as the input of exceeds 3% and is therefore equal to the SN when
HDM-4. They are obtained by using Austroads the subgrade CBR is 3%. The SNC was used in the
Climate Tool based on specific GPS locations and HDM-III to represent the pavement strength in
periods of time as described in previous sections of predicting performance [12].
this chapter. The climatic inputs required by The SNC was further refined into the adjusted
HDM-4 are listed as follows: structural number, SNP, in the HDM-4 [13]. The
1. Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) parameter SNP uses a weighting factor [14] that
2. Moisture classification & Temperature reduces the contribution to pavement strength of
classification based on TMI the sub-base and subgrade with their increasing
3. Duration of dry season in months depth. This weighting factor was introduced
4. Mean monthly precipitation (MMP) in because the strength contribution of each layer in
mm the pavement system is independent of depth, with
5. Mean annual temperature (MAT) in ºC the SNC parameter resulting in over-estimates of
6. Average monthly temperature range SNC.
(MTR) in ºC The SNP can be estimated from pavement
7. Number of days greater than 32 ºC surface deflection data measured by any of the
8. Freeze index (not applicable for SEQ) following typical pavement surface deflection
testing devices: Benkelman Beam (BB), Falling
3.2.2 Pavement structure and traffic data input Weight Deflectometer (FWD), and Deflectograph
(DEF). In HDM-4, pavement strength can be input
Input data is required to enable the definition of as three different forms including:
pavement structure. The data can be considered 1. FWD data
into two categories: pavement strength, and 2. SN and CBR
pavement configuration. Besides, several inputs 3. BB deflection

123
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

Since pavement strength is described in terms of of 3 axle, 6axle and B-Double vehicles as heavy
SNP in HDM-4, inputs on any of the above forms vehicle.
will be adjusted into SNP by the system.
In this study, FWD central deflection at an FWD 3.2.5.2 AADT
load pressure of 700 Kpa is used for majority of In HDM-4 the traffic flow pattern is represented
the LTPP sites based on the available data. For in terms of the Average Annual Daily Traffic
those sites which do not have the FWD data, SN (AADT) which is defined as the amount or
and CBR data are used for analysis. percentage of traffic expected over a certain
amount of time per day. The collected AADT data
3.2.4 Input for Pavement Condition (IRI) involving multiple lanes were measured at
approximately 10 to 20 year after the construction
The pavement condition is expressed in terms of of the roads. For the purpose of this study, the
International Roughness Index (IRI). As an input AADT data need to be further processed based on
for HDM-4 deterioration modelling, the initial IRI the traffic growth rate and traffic lane distribution
are based on NAASRA roughness counts. This factor.
research referred to Yeaman’s guideline[20] for All of the chosen LTPP sites are located at the
pavement roughness which is shown in Table 5. outer lane of a road section while the AADT data
represent the total traffic of all lanes. Therefore,
Table 5: Guideline for pavement roughness [20] the AADT as an input of HDM-4 need to be
Roughness distributed into the traffic volume over the outer
Type of
Traffic (NAASRA lane according to the lane distribution factors.
pavement
counts) Table 6 shows the Lane Distribution Factor
New provided by Austroads [5] Pavement Design
Arterial < 50 Guide. Within which, the left lane data is adopted
construction
New as the outer lane traffic.
Residential < 60
construction
Table 6: Typical Lane Distribution Factors for
These NAASRA counts were then converted carriageways [5]
into the IRI values by using the following Lane Distribution Factor (LDF)
equation: Lanes
Left Centre Right
NAASRA = 26.49 × IRI – 1.27 (1) Location each
lane lane lane
Where, NAASRA = Roughness level measured by direction
NAASRA model (counts/km), IRI = International 2 lane 1.00* N/A 0.5
Rural
roughness index in m/km 3 lane 0.95 0.65 0.30
The initial roughness for this study adopted a 50 2 lane 1.00* N/A 0.5
NAASRA for arterial road and a 55 NAASRA for Urban
3 lane 0.65 0.65 0.5
residential road. They are calculated into IRI value *This value is the suggested limit for a lane and
as 1.93 and 2.13 respectively. may be reduced

3.2.5 Input for Traffic Moreover, the outer lane AADT have to be back
calculated to the initial AADT which represents
3.2.5.1Vehicle fleet the traffic volume when the road section was first
The vehicle fleet is a list of vehicles that could constructed. The initial AADT data are needed as
be expected to be found on a road network. the input for modeling the pavement deterioration
Various detailed vehicle operating information is of road sections from the first year after they were
required for each vehicle which effectively opened to traffic. As the collected traffic volume
describe how the vehicle will behave and interact data are measured at some time after construction,
with the road [5]. In defining the vehicle fleet, four traffic growth per year is required for the back
categories are used in the HDM-4 analysis. That is: calculation. The provided traffic growth data for
1. 3 axle vehicles (trucks and buses) different LTPP sites are tabulated as below:
2. 6 axle vehicles (articulated trucks)
3. B-Double (road trains) Table 7: Traffic Growth Rate per year (%)
4. Passenger cars Other
Based on the fact that the number of heavy LTPP Mt
M1 Moggill local
vehicles is the most critical since they contribute Site Cotton
roads
much more to pavement deterioration than Traffic
passenger cars, the above categories could be 8.5 3.9 5.3 3
Growth
further classified into two traffic types: heavy
vehicles and passenger cars by combining the sum

124
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

3.3 Modelling of Roughness Progression mean monthly minimum temperatures.

Corresponding graphs of current climate analysis
After definition of all the inputs for each are illustrated in Appendix A. This result was
pavement, a dynamic model system is established obtained based on the historical climate data
incorporating interaction between pavement between 1960 and 2007. According to the
strength, pavement condition, surface condition, Thornthwaite Moisture Index classifications by
traffic loading etc. This model predicts pavement Thornthwaite and HDM-4 [17], the historical
performance over a continuous period of time in climate study results indicate the current climate of
accordance with the many various inter-active SEQ belongs to humid.
influences.
The investigation of current pavement Table 9: Summary of SEQ Climate (1960-2007)
roughness progression is carried out based on the TMI MAT MMP MTR
average current climate from 1960 to 2007. The (°C) (mm) (°C)
prediction of future roughness progression is Gold Coast 52.30 20.08 112.5 9.75
carried out based on three different periods Logan 44.60 20.07 107.85 8.17
between 2008 and 2099. As outlined in previous Brisbane 63.20 20.06 127.10 9.54
section, the future climate was projected for every Ipswich 62.37 19.89 124.95 9.84
30 years in terms of the definition of climate and
the typical pavement life cycle. However, when 6. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS
considering pavement performance and
maintenance cost, the first 15 years of pavement Table 10 to Table 13 demonstrate the summaries
life is the most crucial as it is the period before of future climate of the seven targeted locations
pavement condition deteriorates to fair condition. during the period from 2008 to 2099 on 30-year
A focus on the first 15 years of pavement life cycle increments. According to the above results, the
leads to reduced cost and extended using life of values of future Thornthwaite Moisture Index of
pavement [15].Therefore, the future pavement all the seven targeted locations indicate a
deterioration will be analysed for the first 15 years decreasing trend in overall moisture conditions,
of every 30-year period, that is, from 2008 to meanwhile with a decreasing trend in mean
2025, 2041 to 2055, and 2071 to 2085. monthly precipitation which could further confirm
the decrease of Thornthwaite Moisture Index.
4. CALIBRATION FOR LOCAL CONDITION Once the current climate is identified and future
climate is analysed, the general trend in climate
Due to the significant differences in traffic, changes over a long period of time can be
economic, and environmental conditions during determined. The future trends indicate a move
different time periods and between the specific from humid to drier sub-humid conditions within
regions, the HDM-4 model will be calibrated into the next century. The trend in mean temperature is
the region where it is to be used to ensure the slowly increasing. This confirms the literature
model represents the actual deterioration as review findings of expected increases in
accurate as possible. In this study, the calibration temperature and decreases in precipitation for
is carried out at level I for basic application [16]. SEQ.
The most sensitive factor in road deterioration, i.e.
the Kgm, is to be calibrated for the chosen LTPP Table 10: Cold Coast Climate Summary
sites. The initial deterioration factors applied for TMI MAT MMP MTR
current roughness progression modelling are based (°C) (mm) (°C)
on the latest study for SEQ region conducted by Current
CSIRO [18] and Chai et al [19], and shown in 52.3 20.08 112.5 9.75
(1960-2007)
Table 8. Future Climate
26.7 21.5 81.64 9.75
(2008-2040)
Table 8: Initial deterioration factors for SEQ [19]
Future Climate
Calibrat Kci Kcp Krv Kgm Kpp Krp Kgp 14.9 22.5 57.5 9.75
(2041-2070)
ion
1.1 0.2 6.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 Future Climate
4.0 23.5 9.75 9.75
(2071-2099)

5. CURRENT CLIMATE ANALYSIS

Table 11: Logan City Climate Summary
Table 9 shows the current climate of SEQ in terms TMI MAT MMP MTR
of Thornthwaite Moisture Index, annual rainfall, (°C) (mm) (°C)
annual temperature, mean monthly maximum and Current
44.60 20.7 107.85 8.17
(1960-2007)

125
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

Future Climate
15.84 21.93 71.38 8.17 10 1.25 1.22 1.2
(2008-2040) 11 1.32 1.28 1.26
Future Climate
7.21 23.39 50.94 8.17 12 1.39 1.34 1.33
(2041-2070)
Future Climate 13 1.47 1.41 1.39
-1.16 24.79 31.80 8.17 14 1.55 1.48 1.46
(2071-2099)
15 1.63 1.55 1.53
16 1.71 1.63 1.6
Table 12: Ipswich City Climate Summary Table 15: Mt Cotton sub-arterial road deterioration
TMI MAT MMP MTR
2008- 2041- 2071-
(°C) (mm) (°C) Year
Current 2040 2070 2099
62.37 19.89 124.95 9.84 1 1 1 1
(1960-2007)
Future Climate 2 1.1 1.1 1.1
41.07 21.13 93.84 9.84
(2008-2040) 3 1.25 1.24 1.23
Future Climate 4 1.33 1.33 1.3
20.15 22.65 62.72 9.84
(2041-2070)
5 1.42 1.42 1.38
Future Climate
-0.11 24.12 34.00 9.84 6 1.52 1.51 1.46
(2071-2099)
7 1.62 1.61 1.55
Table 13: Brisbane Climate Summary 8 1.74 1.72 1.64
TMI MAT MMP MTR 9 1.86 1.84 1.74
(°C) (mm) (°C)
10 1.99 1.97 1.85
Current
63.20 20.06 127.10 9.54 11 2.13 2.11 1.97
(1960-2007)
Future Climate 12 2.28 2.25 2.09
51.20 21.27 102.36 9.54
(2008-2040) 13 2.44 2.41 2.22
Future Climate 14 2.62 2.58 2.36
28.10 22.80 68.90 9.54
(2041-2070) 15 2.81 2.76 2.51
Future Climate
6.40 24.20 37.53 9.54
(2071-2099)
Table 14 and 15 show the trend of deterioration
rates under combined climate changes and traffic
7. FUTURE PAVEMENT DETERIORATION increases up to year 2099 for selected LTPP sites.
RATES The role of traffic increases on deterioration rates
is significant. For Pacific Motorway, the higher
The second analysis conducted will examine traffic volumes and high annual traffic growth lead
future pavement deterioration rates due to climate to traffic dominating deterioration rates in the
changes and increases in traffic. The analysis is future. The effect of climate change can be seen
run three times under future climate periods up to later in the century as drier climate reduces
the year 2099 by HDM-4 Modelling. deterioration rates; Mt Cotton sub-arterial road
shows almost a balancing of increasing
deterioration rates due to traffic and decreasing
Table 14: Pacific Motorway deterioration rates due to climate. It can be concluded that,
2008- 2041- 2071- while climate change does play a role in lower
Year deterioration rates, traffic will have the most
2040 2070 2099
impact of future deterioration rates for higher
1 0.67 0.67 0.67 trafficked roads.
2 0.74 0.74 0.74
3 0.84 0.84 0.83 8. CONCLUDING
4 0.89 0.88 0.88
5 0.94 0.93 0.92 There is an increasing body of evidence that the
6 0.99 0.98 0.97 climate is changing and climate change can have
7 1.05 1.03 1.03 impacts on road infrastructure due to the effects of
the changed environment [5]. The primary
8 1.12 1.09 1.08 objective of this project was to investigate the
9 1.18 1.15 1.14 impacts of projected climate changes in the next

126
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

100 years of the South East Queensland region on rainfall (decreasing TMI) will slow flexible
flexible pavement performance. A number of pavement deterioration. However, increases in
preliminary works have been carried out according temperature are likely to cause materials to expand;
to the proposed research objectives. They are the bitumen binder to become more viscous; and
summarised as below: deformation susceptibility to increase i.e. rutting.
Solar radiation increases are likely to increase
1. Conducted a comprehensive literature review surface degradation through asphalt oxidation,
on climate change science with a specific embrittlement and cracking.
focus on SEQ region, pavement performance
modelling, effects of climatic factors on 9. REFERENCES
pavement performance and previous similar
studies.
[1] IPCC (intergovernmental Panel on Climate
2. Extracted raw historical and projected future
climate data by using Austroads Climate Change) (2007). Climate change 2007:
Tool. Calculated and interpreted extracted contribution of working group I to the fourth
assessment report of the intergovernmental
climate data into proper forms as the input of
panel on climate change, IPCC, Geneva.
further study.
[2] Garnaut, R. (2008). The Garnaut climate
change review: final report, Cambridge
3. Collected data of targeted road pavement
sections according to the requirement of the University Press, Melbourne.
road pavement management analysis [3] Office of Economic and Statistical Research.
(2010). Queensland Regional Profiles: SEQ
software – Highway Development and
Region, The State of Queensland, Queensland
Management System (HDM-4).
Treasury.
[4] Department of Infrastructure and Planning.
Key findings of the climate data analysis at present
include: (2009). South East Queensland Regional Plan
2009-2031, The State of Queensland.
[5] Austroad. (2004). Impact of climate change on
1. Precipitation and temperature are the major
road infrastructure, Austroad Inc.
climatic factors affecting the pavement
[6] Carrera, A., Dawson, A. & Stegar, J. (2009).
deterioration.
Report Nr 1 – State of the art of likely effect
2. Analysis of the trends of climate change
based on seven typical locations of South of climate on current roads, ERA-NET ROAD
East Queensland indicates an average 1.1°C [7] McDonald, J., Baum, S., Crick, F., Czarnecki,
J., Filed, G., Low Choy, D., Mustelin, J., Sano,
increases in mean annual temperature from
M. & Serrao-Neumann, S. (2010). Climate
2007 to 2040, 2.4°C by 2070, and 3.7°C by
change adaptation in South East Queensland
2099.
3. Mean annual precipitation is projected to human settlements: Issues and context,
decrease by approximately 22% by 2040, unpublished report for the South East
Queensland Climate Adaptation Research
32% by 2070, and 42% by 2099.
Initiative, Griffith University.
4. Based on the HDM-4 calibration of LTPP
[8] Austroads. (2010). Impact of climate change
sites, a relationship between Thornthwaite
on road performance: updating climate
Moisture Index and average flexible
pavement deterioration rates in IRI/year has information for Australia. Austroads
been developed. This can be used for Incorporated, Sydney.
[9] Walsh, K., Cai, W., Hennessy, K., Jones, R.,
improving pavement performance prediction
Mclnnes, K., Nguyen., Page, C. and Whetton,
at a network level due to climate changes
P. (2002). Climate Change in Queensland
represented by changes in Thornthwaite
under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions,
Moisture Index.
Due to the uncertainty about future human CSIRO.
behaviour and some aspects of climate science, [10] Loizos, A., Roberts, J. & Crank, S. (2002).
Asphalt pavement deterioration models for
precise predictions of climate change are uncertain
mild climatic conditions. Ninth International
and will remain so [5].To reduce uncertainty and
Conference on Asphalt Pavements.
improve confidence of future climate projections
for the purpose of this study, effort is made by Copenhagen, Denmark.
adopting a more reliable projection method. [11] AASHO. (1972). AASHO interim guide for
design of pavement structures, American
This project has examined the effects of long
Association of State Highway Officials,
term climate changes on pavement deterioration in
Washington DC, USA.
SEQ and presents the results of the general trends
[12] Watanatada, T., Harral, C. G., Paterson, W. D.
expected. The findings suggest that decreasing
O., Dhareshwar, A. M., Bhandari, A. &

127
 International Journal of GEOMATE, Oct., 2017, Vol.13, Issue 38, pp.120-128

Tsunokawa, K. (1987). The highway design ISOHDM, PIARC, Paris, France.

and maintenance standards model: volume 1: [17] Odoki, J. B. & Kerali, H. G. R. (2000).
description of the HDM-III model, John Analytical framework & model descriptions,
Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, USA. Highway development and management series
[13] Morosuik, G., Riley, M. & Odoki, J. B. volume 1 part C, World Road Association
(2001). HDM-4 modelling road deterioration (PIARC), Paris, France.
and works effects: review draft version 1.1: [18] CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and
vol. 6, World Road Association (PIARC), Industrial Research Organisation) & BoM.
Paris, France and the World Bank, (2007). Climate change in Australia: technical
Washington DC, USA. report 2007, CSIRO, Melbourne.
[14] Parkman, C. C. & Rolt, J. (1997). [19] Chai, G. W., Chowdhury, S. H., Kelly, G.,
Characterisation of pavement strength in Bartlett, R. & Loo, Y. C. (2010).
HDM-III and possible changes for HDM-4, Establishment of calibration factors for
Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), pavement roughness deterioration model in
unpublished report, PR/ORC/587/97, TRL, southeast Queensland. Australian Journal of
Crowthorne, Berkshire, UK. Civil Engineering, Vol 8, No 1.
[15] Akyildiz, S. (2008). Development of new [20] Yeaman, J. (2002). A study guide for
network-level optimization model for Salem pavement maintenance & rehabilitation, Centre
district pavement maintenance programming. for Pavement Engineering Education, Deakin
Faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute University.
and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia.
Copyright © Int. J. of GEOMATE. All rights reserved,
[16] Bennett, C. R. & Paterson, W. D. O. (2002).
including the making of copies unless permission is
A guide to calibration and adaptation. Volume
obtained from the copyright proprietors.
V, HDM-4 Manual. World Road Association,

128

View publication stats