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Learning Objectives:
The learner is able to:
1. find the probability of the union of two events;
2. illustrate mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events;
3. illustrate probability of dependent and independent events;
4. determine probability of dependent and independent events;
5. solve routine and non-routine problems involving probability of events.
In the past lesson, you have learned the concept of union and intersection of events. In this
lesson, you will deal with finding the probability of the union of two events. To help you
understand these concepts, read the discussion below.
If A and B are events in a sample space S, then the probability of the union of the two
events A and B is
𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Where:
𝑃(𝐴) – probability of event A
𝑃(𝐵) – probability of event B
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) – probability of event A and event B occurring together (called
intersection of A and B)
Note: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) is subtracted because the elements of the intersection have been considered
already in 𝑃(𝐴) or in 𝑃(𝐵).
Illustrative Example 1 : A die is rolled once. What is the probability of getting an odd number
or getting a number greater than 3?
Solution:
B = { 4,5,6} , n(B) = 3
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = {5}, n(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1
3 3 1
= + −
6 6 6
5
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =
6
Author: Mary Ann M. Gozon, Gideon Cultura, Bobby Germo Reviewers:
School/Station: ANHS 1.Mercedita D. Gonzaga
Division: Butuan City 2.Julce B. Lazaga
3.
2
Illustrative Example 2 : A die is rolled once. What is the probability of getting an odd number
or a 4?
Solution:
3 1
= +
6 6
4 2
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = =
6 3
Illustrative Example 3 : A survey in a certain community finds that 65% of people are married.
They ask the same group of people, and 72% have at least one child. If there are 57% that are
married and have at least one child, what is the probability that a person in the survey is married
OR has a child?
Solution:
𝑃( 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑) = 65% = 0.65
𝑃(ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑) = 72% = 0.72
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑) = 57% = 0.57
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑 ) = 𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑) + 𝑃(ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑 ) − 𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑)
This section requires you to use the mathematical ideas you learned from the discussion.
Answer the problems in the following activity in different ways when possible.
2. Dario puts 44 marbles in a box in which 14 are red, 12 are blue, and 18 are yellow. If
Dario picks one marble at random, what is the probability that he selects a red marble
or a yellow marble?
3. Out of 5200 households surveyed, 2107 had a dog, 807 had a cat, and 303 had both a
dog and a cat. What is the probability that a randomly selected household has a dog or
a cat?
Questions:
a. How did you answer each question?
b. What do you notice about the events in each question? (e.g., 1.c as compared to 1. d,
question 2 as compared to question 3).
If two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, then the probability that either A or B
occurs is the sum of their probabilities. In symbols,
On the other hand, in illustrative example 2, the event of getting an odd number or getting
a number greater than 3 in the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} are not mutually exclusive events. Observe
that a subset of odd numbers also contains an element which is a subset of the numbers greater
than 3. The Venn diagram below shows events A and B which are not mutually exclusive
because A and B intersect. Note that there are outcomes that are common to A and B which is
the intersection of A and B.
If two events, A and B, are not mutually exclusive, then the probability that either A
or B occurs is the sum of their probabilities. In symbols,
(a) 4 or 10?
(b) 5 or even?
The two events cannot occur at the same The two events cannot occur at the same
time; hence the events are mutually time; hence the events are mutually
exclusive. exclusive.
𝑛(𝐴) 1 𝑛(𝐴) 1
𝑃(𝐴) = = 𝑃(𝐴) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 10 𝑛(𝑆) 10
𝑛(𝐵) 1 𝑛(𝐵) 5
𝑃(𝐵) = = 𝑃(𝐵) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 10 𝑛(𝑆) 10
1 1 1 5
= + = +
10 10 10 10
2 1 6 3
𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = =5 𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = =5
10 10
Illustrative Example 5: A bowl contains 10 chips numbered 1 to 10. If a chip is drawn randomly
from the bowl, what is the probability that is
(a) 4 or even?
(b) even or divisible by 5?
𝑛(𝐴) 1 𝑛(𝐴) 5
𝑃(𝐴) = = 𝑃(𝐴) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 10 𝑛(𝑆) 10
𝑛(𝐵) 5 𝑛(𝐵) 2
𝑃(𝐵) = = 𝑃(𝐵) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 10 𝑛(𝑆) 10
𝑛(𝐴∩𝐵) 1 𝑛(𝐴∩𝐵) 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 10 𝑛(𝑆) 10
The two events are not mutually exclusive. The two events are not mutually exclusive.
𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
1 5 1 5 2 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = + − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = + −
10 10 10 10 10 10
5 1 6 3
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = =2 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = =5
10 10
2. Rhian likes to wear colored shirts. She has 15 shirts in closet. Five of these are blue,
four are in different shades of red, and the rest are of different colors. What is the
probability that she will wear blue or a red shirt?
3. Mario has 45 red chips, 12 blue chips, and 24 white chips. Find the probability that
Mario randomly selects the indicated chips.
(a) P (red or blue)
(b) P (blue or white)
(c) P (white or red)
4. Of 240 students, 176 are on the honor roll, 48 are members of the varsity team, and 36
are in the honor roll and are also members of the varsity team. What is the probability
that a randomly selected student is on the honor roll or is a member of the varsity
team?
You learned about the basic concepts of the probability of compound events. You will formally
learn and understanding dependent and independent events by considering the discussion that
follows.
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events gives us no
information about whether or not the other event will occur; that is, the events have no
influence on each other.
When the outcome of one event affects the outcome of another event, they are
dependent events.
Consider the two situations and answer the questions that follow.
Situation 1: Consider a box that contains 14 red balls, 12 blue balls, and 9 yellow balls. A
ball is drawn at random and the color is noted and then put back inside the box. Then,
another ball is drawn at random. Find the probability that:
Situation 2: Consider a box that contains 14 red balls, 12 blue balls, and 9 yellow balls.
Suppose that two balls are drawn one after the other without putting back the first ball. Find
the probability that:
Questions:
a. Compare the process of getting the probabilities in each of the situations above.
➢ In situation 1, the ball was put back inside the box before getting the second ball.
In situation 2, the ball was not put back inside the box.
b. In situation 1, is the probability of obtaining the second ball affected by the first
ball? What about in situation 2?
➢ In situation 1, the probability of getting the second ball was the same as the
probability of getting the first ball. On the other hand, the probability of obtaining
the second ball was affected since the ball was not put back inside the box. Thus,
the number of ball was changed.
• In situation 1, the probability of getting a blue ball in the second draw is not affected
by the probability of drawing a red ball on the first draw, since the first ball is put
back inside the box prior to the second draw. Thus, the two events are independent
of each other. Two events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect
the outcome of the other event.
• In situation 2, if the ball was not placed back in the box, then drawing the two balls
would have been dependent events. In this case, the event of drawing a yellow ball
on the second draw is dependent on the event of drawing a yellow ball on the first
draw.
Let us try if you can distinguish events that are dependent and independent by answering
Activity 3.
1. You flip a coin and then roll a fair six-sided die. The coin lands tails-up and the die
shows a three.
3. A bag contains eight red marbles and four blue marbles. You randomly pick a marble
and then pick a second marble without returning the marbles to the bag. The first
marble is red, and the second marble is blue.
4. A cooler contains twenty bottles of energy drink: eight lemon flavored, five orange
flavored, and seven apple flavored. Three times, you randomly grab a bottle, return
the bottle to the cooler, and then mix up the bottles. The first time, you get a lemon
drink. The second and third times, you get apple flavored.
5. A box of chocolates contains six milk chocolates, eight dark chocolates, and five white
chocolates. You randomly select and eat three chocolates. The first piece is milk
chocolate, the second is dark chocolate, and the third is white chocolate
Were you able to determine dependent and independent events? I am sure you did! You
have just understood the concept of dependent and independent events. Continue by
considering the discussion that follows.
Illustrative Example 7: Consider a box that contains 14 red balls, 12 blue balls, and 9
yellow balls. A ball is drawn at random and the color is noted and then put back inside the
box. Then, another ball is drawn at random. Find the probability that:
Solution:
a. Both are blue
12
On the first draw, the probability of getting a blue ball is . On the second draw, the
35
12
probability of getting a blue ball is also since ball drawn in the first draw was placed
35
back in the box. So,
12 12 144
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = ∙ =
35 35 1225
14
On the first draw, the probability of getting a red ball is . On the second draw, the
35
9
probability of getting a yellow ball is since ball drawn in the first draw was placed
35
back in the box. So,
14 9 126
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = ∙ =
35 35 1225
If two events, A and B, are dependent, then the probability of both events occurring is the
product of the probability of A and the probability of B after A occurs. In symbols,
Illustrative Example 8: A box contains 7 white marbles and 7 red marbles. What is the
probability of drawing 2 white marbles and 1 red marble in succession without replacement?
Solution:
On the first draw, the box contains 7 white marbles and 7 red marbles, the probability of getting
7
a white marble is .
14
On the second draw, since the marble was not placed back in the box, we only have 6 white
6
marbles and 7 red marbles, so, the probability of getting a white marble is .
13
Then on the third draw, the remaining marbles are 5 white and 7 red, thus, the probability of
7
getting a red marble is 7 12 .
12
7 6 7 1 6 7 7
So, P(1 white, 1 white, 1 red) = ∙ ∙ =2∙ ∙ =
14 13 12 13 12 52
This time you need to reflect on and further find out your understanding of dependent and
independent events.
1. A bag contains 6 black marbles, 9 blue marbles, 4 yellow marbles, and 2 green marbles. A
marble is randomly selected, replaced, and a second marble is randomly selected. Find the
probability of:
a. selecting a black marble, then a yellow marble.
b. Selecting a blue on the first take and another blue on the second take
2. You have 7 white wristband bracelets and 8 red wristband bracelets inside your bag. You pick
3 wristband bracelets for your friend. What is the probability of picking 2 white and 1 red
wristband bracelets in succession without replacement?
3. A coin is tossed, and a die is rolled. Find the probability of landing on a head side of the
coin and rolling a 4 on the die.
Did you answer all the questions correctly? I’m sure you did! This time you need to reflect
on and further find out your understanding of dependent and independent events.
2. Rene and Cris went to a grocery store to buy drinks. They chose from 10 different brands
of juice drinks, 6 different brands of carbonated drinks, and 3 different brands of mineral
water. What is the probability that Rene and Cris both chose juice drinks, if Rene
randomly chose first and liked the first brand he picked up?
4. A rental agency has 12 white cars, 8 gray cars, 6 red cars, and 3 green cars for rent.
Mr. Escobar rents a car, returns it because the radio is broken, and gets another car.
What is the probability that Mr. Escobar is given a green car and then a gray car?
Reflection:
What new realizations do you have about the probability of a dependent event? How would
you use these concepts in real life?
References:
1. Callanta, Melvin, et.al. Mathematics Learner’s Module Grade 10. Department of
Education Republic of Philippines, 2015
2. Orines, Fernando, et.al. Next Century Mathematics10. Phoenix Publishing House,
2015
Author: Mary Ann M. Gozon, Gideon Cultura, Bobby Germo Reviewers:
School/Station: ANHS 1.Mercedita D. Gonzaga
Division: Butuan City 2.Julce B. Lazaga
3.
10
ANSWER KEY
Activity 1
1 1 14
1. a. 5:
Activity 𝑃(7) = 15, 𝑃(15) = 15 Activity 4: 2. 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) = 44
10 10 51 1125 2 6 4 8 18
1. 𝑃a.
(7𝑜𝑟15
∙ )=
∙ 15=+ 15 = 1. a. ∙ = 𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) =
28 28 28 5488 15 21 21 147 44
10 9 5 9 9 1
2. b. ∙ =
b.19𝑃∙(18
5) =
1 14 18 32
19,
= 15 21 21 49 (𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 ) = + 44 = =
7 6 8 8 44 44
3. 810 ∙ 6 = 5 2. ∙ ∙ =
1124 23 46 15 14 13 65
3 8 6 1 1 1
4. number
∙ = divisible by 3= 3. ∙ =
{3,6,9,12,15}
29 28 203 5 2 6 12
𝑃(𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3) = 15
1 5 6
𝑃(5 𝑜𝑟 𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3 ) = 15 + 15 = 15
7 2107
c. 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = 3. 𝑃(ℎ𝑎𝑑 𝑎 𝑑𝑜𝑔) =
15 5200
5 807
𝑃(𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3) = 𝑃(ℎ𝑎𝑑 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑡) =
15 5200
2 303
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3) = 𝑃(ℎ𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑜𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑡) =
15 5200
7 5 2 10 2 2107 807 303 2611
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3 ) = 15 + 15 − 15 = =3 𝑃(ℎ𝑎𝑑 𝑎 𝑑𝑜𝑔 𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑡 ) = 5200 + 5200 − 5200 =
15 5200
5
d. 𝑃(𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3) = 15
3
𝑃(𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 4) = 15
1
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3) = 15
5 3 1 7
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 3 ) = 15 + 15 − 15 = 15
Activity 2:
3 11 2
1. (a) , (b ) , (c )
5 15 3
3
2.
5
19 4 23
3. (a) , (b ) . ( c )
27 9 27
47
4.
60
Activity 3:
1. Independent
2. Dependent
3. Dependent
4. Independent
5. Dependent