TreePlan (Tryout Version)

0 62

RESPUESTA:
HAY QUE ELEGIR LA ALTERNATIVA B

B
2
80.5 0 80.5

0 46
 0.4
DEMANDA ALTA
90
90 90

0.5
DEMANDA MEDIA
50
50 50

0.1
DEMANDA BAJA
10
10 10

0.4
DEMANDA ALTA
200
200 200

0.5
DEMANDA MEDIA
25
25 25

0.1
DEMANDA BAJA
-120
-120 -120

0.4
DEMANDA ALTA
60
60 60

0.5
DEMANDA MEDIA
40
40 40

0.1
DEMANDA BAJA
 20
20 20
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 3
1 0 0E 3
2 0 0E 3
3 0 0E 3
4 1T 0
5 1T 0
6 1T 0
7 2T 0
8 2T 0
9 2T 0
10 3T 0
11 3T 0
12 3T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
1 2 3 0 0 22 1 1
4 5 6 0 0 7 5 1
7 8 9 0 0 22 5 1
10 11 12 0 0 37 5 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 7 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 12 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 17 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 22 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 32 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 37 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 42 9 1
TreePlan (Tryout Version)

0 62

B
2
80.5 0 80.5

C
0 46
 0.4
DEMANDA ALTA
90
90 90

0.5
DEMANDA MEDIA
50
50 50

0.1
DEMANDA BAJA
10
10 10

0.4
DEMANDA ALTA
200
200 200

0.5
DEMANDA MEDIA
25
25 25

0.1
DEMANDA BAJA
-120
-120 -120

0.4
DEMANDA ALTA
60
60 60

0.5
DEMANDA MEDIA
40
 40 40

0.1
DEMANDA BAJA
20
20 20
 ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 3
0 1 0 0E 3
3 2 0 0E 3
0 3 0 0E 3
0 4 1T 0
0 5 1T 0
0 6 1T 0
10 7 2T 0
11 8 2T 0
12 9 2T 0
10 3T 0
11 3T 0
12 3T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
1 2 3 0 0 22 1 1
4 5 6 0 0 7 5 1
7 8 9 0 0 22 5 1
10 11 12 0 0 37 5 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 7 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 12 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 17 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 22 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 32 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 37 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 42 9 1
 GANAR INDIANA GANAR PURDUE VE=GESIP=GESIM
APOSTAR INDIANA 10000 -11000 -500
APOSTAR PURDUE -11000 10000 -500
A PRIORI 0.5 0.5

ROBERTO 1000
BAYES
MARGINAL GANAR INDIANA GANAR PURDUE
GANA INDIANA 0.6 0.7 0.3 1
GANA PURDUE 0.4 0.2 0.8 1

GANA INDIANA
0.6
GANAR INDIANA GANAR PURDUE
APOSTAR INDIANA 10000 -11000 3700
APOSTAR PURDUE -11000 10000 -4700
BAYES 0.7 0.3

GANA PURDUE
0.4
GANAR INDIANA GANAR PURDUE
APOSTAR INDIANA 10000 -11000 -6800
APOSTAR PURDUE -11000 10000 5800
BAYES 0.2 0.8
GESIP -500
GECIP 10000
VEIP=GECIP-GESIP 10500

GECIM 4540
GESIM -500
VEIM=GECIM-GESIM 5040
TreePlan (Tryout Version)

VESI=GESIM=GESIP

GECIP

2
10000
 GECIM

VEIM=GECIM-GESIM
5040
CANTIDAD MAXIMA A PAGAR A ROBERTO

RPTA:
SI SE PUEDE CONTRATAR A ROBERTO,DADO QUE SOLO COBRA 1000.
 APOSTAR INDIANA

0 -500
SI LO HACEMOS POR NUESTRA CUENTA

1
-500

APOSTAR A PURDUE

0 -500

PROBABILIDAD A PRIORI
0.5
GANAR INDIANA
1
0 10000

SI LO HACEMOS CON LA AYUDA DE UN EXPERTO

10000

0.5
GANAR PURDUE
2
0 10000
 PROBABILIDAD MARGINAL
0.6
GANA INDIANA
1
0 3700

SI LO HACEMOS CON LA AYUDA DE ROBERTO

4540

0.4
UE SOLO COBRA 1000. GANA PURDUE
2
0 5800
PROBABILIDAD A PRIORI
0.5
GANAR INDIANA
10000
10000 10000

0.5
GANAR PURDUE
-11000
-11000 -11000

0.5
GANAR INDIANA
-11000
-11000 -11000

0.5
GANAR PURDUE
10000
10000 10000

APOSTAR INDIANA
10000
10000 10000

APOSTAR PURDUE
-11000
-11000 -11000

APOSTAR INDIANA
-11000
-11000 -11000

APOSTAR PURDUE
10000
10000 10000
PROBABILIDAD DE BAYES
 0.7
GANA INDIANA
10000
APOSTAR INDIANA 10000 10000

0 3700 0.3
GANA PURDUE
-11000
-11000 -11000

0.7
GANA INDIANA
-11000
APOSTAR PURDUE -11000 -11000

0 -4700 0.3
GANA PURDUE
10000
10000 10000

0.2
GANA INDIANA
10000
APOSTAR INDIANA 10000 10000

0 -6800 0.8
GANA PURDUE
-11000
-11000 -11000

0.2
GANA INDIANA
-11000
APOSTAR PURDUE -11000 -11000

0 5800 0.8
GANA PURDUE
10000
10000 10000
 ID Name Value
0 0 TreePlan 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
 0 8
0 9
0 10
0 11
0 12
0 13
0 14
0 15
17 16
0 17
24 18
25 19
26 20
27 21
28 22
29 23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4
0 0D 3 1 2 3 0
0 0D 2 4 5 0 0
0 0E 2 10 11 0 0
0 0E 2 16 17 0 0
0 1E 2 6 7 0 0
0 1E 2 8 9 0 0
4T 0 0 0 0 0
4T 0 0 0 0 0
 5T 0 0 0 0 0
5T 0 0 0 0 0
2D 2 12 13 0 0
2D 2 14 15 0 0
0 10 T 0 0 0 0 0
0 10 T 0 0 0 0 0
0 11 T 0 0 0 0 0
0 11 T 0 0 0 0 0
3D 2 18 19 0 0
3D 2 24 25 0 0
0 16 E 2 20 21 0 0
0 16 E 2 22 23 0 0
18 T 0 0 0 0 0
18 T 0 0 0 0 0
19 T 0 0 0 0 0
19 T 0 0 0 0 0
0 17 E 2 26 27 0 0
0 17 E 2 28 29 0 0
24 T 0 0 0 0 0
24 T 0 0 0 0 0
25 T 0 0 0 0 0
25 T 0 0 0 0 0
S5 Row Col Mark
0 34 1 1
0 9 5 1
0 29 5 1
0 59 5 1
0 4 9 1
0 14 9 1
0 2 13 1
0 7 13 1
0 12 13 1
0 17 13 1
0 24 9 1
0 34 9 1
0 22 13 1
0 27 13 1
0 32 13 1
0 37 13 1
0 49 9 1
0 69 9 1
0 44 13 1
0 54 13 1
0 42 17 1
0 47 17 1
0 52 17 1
0 57 17 1
0 64 13 1
0 74 13 1
0 62 17 1
0 67 17 1
0 72 17 1
0 77 17 1
TreePlan (Tryout Version)

ESTUDIAR

0 15.4

1
15.4

NO ESTUDIAR

0 6.3
 0.8
APROBAR
18
18 18

0.2
DESAPROBAR
5
5 5

0.3
APROBAR
14
14 14

0.7
DESAPROBAR
3
3 3
 ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2
2 1 0 0E 2
0 2 0 0E 2
5 3 1T 0
6 4 1T 0
5 2T 0
6 2T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
1 2 0 0 0 9 1 1
3 4 0 0 0 4 5 1
5 6 0 0 0 14 5 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 7 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 12 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 17 9 1
 TODO OCUPADO OCUPADO LA MITAD VESI
VENDER TERRENO 20000 20000 20000
CONSTRUYA DEPARTAMENTOS 410000 10000 250000
A PRIORI 0.6 0.4

Rpta:
Se recomienda se construya los departamentos.