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    Predictive Aircraft Maintenance

    Uploaded by

    Amrut Godbole
    The document describes a project to develop a machine learning model for predictive aircraft maintenance using historical maintenance records. The goal is to predict imminent failures of specific components like wheels and tires. A Cox regression survival analysis model is developed to predict time-to-failure and identify failures within 5 days. The survival model's predictions are then used as a feature in a gradient boosting model, achieving an AUC of 0.88 with a false positive rate of 0.09. The results demonstrate how the model can help the Air Force preemptively identify failures and schedule maintenance to keep aircraft flying safely in a cost-effective manner.

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    Predictive Aircraft Maintenance

    Uploaded by

    Amrut Godbole
    31 views1 page
    The document describes a project to develop a machine learning model for predictive aircraft maintenance using historical maintenance records. The goal is to predict imminent failures of specific components like wheels and tires. A Cox regression survival analysis model is developed to predict time-to-failure and identify failures within 5 days. The survival model's predictions are then used as a feature in a gradient boosting model, achieving an AUC of 0.88 with a false positive rate of 0.09. The results demonstrate how the model can help the Air Force preemptively identify failures and schedule maintenance to keep aircraft flying safely in a cost-effective manner.

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    The document describes a project to develop a machine learning model for predictive aircraft maintenance using historical maintenance records. The goal is to predict imminent failures of specific components like wheels and tires. A Cox regression survival analysis model is developed to predict time-to-failure and identify failures within 5 days. The survival model's predictions are then used as a feature in a gradient boosting model, achieving an AUC of 0.88 with a false positive rate of 0.09. The results demonstrate how the model can help the Air Force preemptively identify failures and schedule maintenance to keep aircraft flying safely in a cost-effective manner.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    31 views1 page

    Predictive Aircraft Maintenance

    Uploaded by

    Amrut Godbole
    The document describes a project to develop a machine learning model for predictive aircraft maintenance using historical maintenance records. The goal is to predict imminent failures of specific components like wheels and tires. A Cox regression survival analysis model is developed to predict time-to-failure and identify failures within 5 days. The survival model's predictions are then used as a feature in a gradient boosting model, achieving an AUC of 0.88 with a false positive rate of 0.09. The results demonstrate how the model can help the Air Force preemptively identify failures and schedule maintenance to keep aircraft flying safely in a cost-effective manner.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 1

    Predictive Aircraft Maintenance:

    Detecting Imminent Part Failure with Cox Regression and Advanced Ensemble Learning Methods

    2Lt Abraham Eaton Advised By: Dr. Allison Chang Sponsored By: MIT Lincoln Laboratory,
    2Lt Joshua Couse Dr. Chelsea Curran Group 43,
    Ms. Cindy Engholm Air Traffic Control Systems
    Mr. Yan Glina

    Problem Statement
    Problem Description: The United States Air Force spends $50B+ yearly in aircraft operations and Project Timeline:
    maintenance. Maintaining complex and aging aircraft requires large maintenance crews and around the Jan — April May—June July—Aug
    clock operations. Over the past several years, aircraft mission capable rates have been declining while
    maintenance costs have increased. How can the Air Force use machine learning to predict when com-
    Preliminary Modeling Model Building
    ponents will require maintenance in order to keep planes flying and our nation safe? Problem Framing
    Feature Engineering Parameter Tuning
    Project Goal: Develop an end to end machine learning pipeline that utilizes historical maintenance Data Exploration
    Feature Selection Presenting Results
    records to predict near term component failure.

    Data
    Data Modeling Objectives
    • Predict rarely occurring failures of
    Air Force Aircraft Maintenance Log Data Cleaning Pipeline Final Dataset specific aircraft components

    • Prediction must be early enough to allow for


    • 167k Observations maintenance crew and supply adjustments
    • Details a specific part removal, replacement, • Filtered data to include accurate tail numbers
    installation or inspection, and date completed • Condensed records into daily maintenance sum- • Focus on components with largest
    Indicates type of malfunction, and type of mainte-
    •
    mary by aircraft tail unscheduled maintenance requirements
    nance (scheduled v. unscheduled) • Completed time-series for missing dates
    • 3.5 Million records spanning 12 years Generated additional features
    • Anonymous Tail Numbers
    •
    • Maximize failure detection rate while
    • Total breakages, total man hours, total un-
    • 800k Blank Values limiting false positive rate to tolerable
    scheduled maintenance jobs, etc measure
    • No Dependent Variable • Created indicator for part breakage

    Modeling
    1. Decide Which Component Failure to Predict 2. Build Variety of Models and Evaluate Performance
    Top Performing Baseline Model
    • Our team tested a variety of Model AUC
    machine learning methods to
    determine which approaches
    performed the best on our pre- CART 0.53
    diction task.
    • After finding mediocre results Logistic
    using classification methods we 0.62
    Regression
    decided to reframe our problem
    as time-to-event prediction task
    Random
    0.66
    • Using a Cox regression model Forest
    allowed us to take advantage of
    the time-varying covariates in
    our survival analysis Boosting 0.68

    Wheel and Tire failures occur frequently and require the


    Prediction Variable: Binary indicator of Wheel & Tire failure within 5 days
    most total man-hours out of all components

    3. Develop Survival Model 3. Final Building Model and Performance


    Survival Analysis
    Final Dataset Predictions
    Median Time-to-Failure:
    90 Days

    • Utilizing the survival model’s predictions as an


    additional feature to a gradient boosting model
    improved performance

    • Tuning hyperparameter such as depth, learning rate, L2 True Positive False Positive
    AUC
    normalization constant, and training iterations ensures Rate Rate

    best out of sample model performance 0.88 0.57 0.09

    • The survival curve above demonstrates how the wheels


    Impact and Conclusion
    & tires of an aircraft deteriorate over time
    Developed effective data management pipeline to
    Savings:
    •
    • A Survival model outputs a survival probability for each transform millions of records into a series of concise and
    day a part is observed providing a statistic of component
    informative daily maintenance summaries
    health
    • Our model was able to preemptively identify 2,531 part
    ~$27M
    • The median time-to-failure metric represents the point in
    time when half of the components have failed and is a
    valuable metric for aircraft maintainers
    failures before they occurred, showing potential to save
    approximately $27M Mission Hours:
    • Identified an opportunity to add 1,501 available flight 1.5K+ Available Flight Hours
    hours

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