Livestock Science 253 (2021) 104704

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Livestock Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/livsci

The Brazilian beef cattle supply chain in the next decades

Guilherme Cunha Malafaia a, Giana de Vargas Mores b, *, Yasmin Gomes Casagranda c,
Júlio Otávio Jardim Barcellos d, Fernando Paim Costa e
a
Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), 830 Rádio Maia Avenue, Vila Popular, Campo Grande, State of Mato Grosso do Sul 79106-550, Brazil
b
Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (Ufms)/Imed Business School, 304 Senador Pinheiro Street, Vila Rodrigues, Passo Fundo, State of Rio Grande do Sul 99070-
220, Brazil
c
Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (Ufms), Costa e Silva Avenue, University City, Pioneiros, Campo Grande, State of Mato Grosso do Sul 79070-900, Brazil
d
Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (Ufrgs), 7712 Bento Gonçalves Avenue, Agronomia, Porto Alegre, State of Rio Grande do Sul 91540-000, Brazil
e
Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), 830 Rádio Maia Avenue, Vila Popular, Campo Grande, State of Mato Grosso do Sul 79106-550, Brazil

H I G H L I G H T S

• The prognosis was obtained by Delphi method with 153 Brazilian specialists.
• Global advances will impact on Brazilian beef cattle supply chain.
• Scenarios and ten megatrends were defined for the beef supply chain in 2040.
• The results were based on quality and technology with sustainable implications.
• Advances will come from technical, professional and competitive livestock production.

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The Brazilian beef cattle supply chain has undergone technological modernisation in its production systems,
Cattle livestock resulting in better productivity, meat quality and competitiveness. The research aims to identify the megatrends
Meat in the Brazilian beef cattle supply chain expected by 2040. The Delphi method was used to identify the chal­
Expert opinion
lenges. Scenarios were created and ten megatrends were defined: i) biological advances in waste management; ii)
Delphi method
Agribusiness
biotechnological transformation of beef farming; iii) less grass and more meat; iv) profits based on animal
welfare; v) consolidated livestock with major players; vi) more natural and quality-demanding slaughterhouses;
vii) meat with a designation of origin; viii) digital technology that transforms the entire supply chain; ix)
availability of qualified labour; x) Brazil as a major exporter of meat and genetics. The development of this
research has economic, social and environmental implications for both the public and private spheres. In the
international scenario, Brazil could be a major exporter of meat and probably animal genetics, specialised and
with added value. Global advances in the supply chain will come from highly technical, professional and
competitive livestock production, mainly based on technology and quality.

1. Introduction pasture area and an increase in livestock productivity.

Meat is an important source of protein in human diets and its con­
Brazil stands out in global beef and dairy cattle production. In 2020, sumption depends on socioeconomic factors, ethics or religious beliefs,
the gross domestic product (GDP) of beef cattle accounted for 8.5% of traditions (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
the Brazilian GDP (Cepea, 2021). This scenario is confirmed by the in­ FAO, 1992). Since the 1990s, the Brazilian beef cattle supply chain has
crease in importing countries and the consolidation of markets, such as undergone a technological modernisation in its production and organi­
China, Hong Kong, the European Union, Egypt and Chile (Secretariat of sation systems, resulting in higher productivity, better meat quality and
Foreign Trade Secex, 2021) and is corroborated by the decrease in greater competitiveness. This scenario was due to the country’s

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (G.C. Malafaia), [email protected], [email protected] (G.V. Mores), [email protected]
(Y.G. Casagranda), [email protected] (J.O.J. Barcellos), [email protected] (F.P. Costa).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.livsci.2021.104704
Received 27 June 2021; Received in revised form 23 August 2021; Accepted 15 September 2021
Available online 17 September 2021
1871-1413/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
G.C. Malafaia et al. Livestock Science 253 (2021) 104704

favourable climatic conditions, availability of land at low prices, The originality and the theoretical and managerial relevance of this
adequate labour supply and production technology adapted to a tropical research, since it could increase the possibility of generating more as­
country. sessments of the international markets for conducting the scenarios
Despite this favourable scenario, a shortage of beef required imports presented. It should reveal the connections along the beef cattle supply
until the 1980s. The supply chain was encouraged to increase produc­ chain and the possible megatrends, guide future solutions for supply
tion, resulting in what is considered the first wave of beef cattle devel­ chain management and improve production to achieve new strategic
opment in Brazil (McManus et al., 2016). Over the years, the production methods for organisations. In this context, this research aims to identify
system has been based on productivity, since the horizontal growth of the megatrends in the Brazilian beef cattle supply chain expected by
production was unsustainable (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corpo­ 2040.
ration, 2020). The livestock production model in Brazil has prioritised
more capital-intensive technologies (i.e. “land-saving” technologies) 2. Materials and methods
with better technical and economic performances (Marta Júnior et al.,
2011). Bibliographic research and the Delphi method were used to validate
Key solutions have been the integrated production systems, new and establish the steps of the research. This method is justified when the
forages, genetic improvement of the herd, management and recovery of research problem does not use precise analysis techniques but instead
pastures, feed supplementation, good production practices and calf early uses the reliable consensus of experts in the area who work directly on
production (Pelicano and Capdeville, 2021). However, since the 2010s, the topic (Linstone and Turoff, 2002; Grisham, 2009), helping to define
cost pressures have arisen, derived from production costs, land valor­ future-orientated research (Rowe and Wright, 1999). The Delphi
isation and social and environmental restrictions (Cortner et al., 2019; method is an important research technique, as it allows the collection of
Nunes et al., 2019; Wetlesen et al., 2020). expert opinions and leads to robust results in the complex topics
To achieve a broad understanding, a study of scenarios can be con­ researched (Landeta, 2006; Rikkonen et al., 2006).
ducted. A scenario project has an argument defined to address the The authors obtained a prognosis regarding the challenges faced by
common experiences of organisations (Gordon, 2020). Actual argu­ the Brazilian beef cattle supply chain by defining the guiding question
ments to describe agribusiness scenarios include risk management for performing the Delphi method: What are the challenges facing the
(Behzadi et al., 2018), economic consequences (Riley et al., 2019), beef cattle supply chain in Brazil in 2040? (Step 1). The Delphi method
production expansion (Vale et al., 2019), climate change impacts was conducted in 2020, using the 20-year timeframe for long-term
(Payen et al., 2020), carbon footprint (Vreys et al., 2019), future studies (in this case, 2040). The relevant steps are listed in Fig. 1.
non-renewable energy/resources and land use (González-Quintero et al., A group of experts on future events was consulted by means of a
2021) and the effects of diverse periods (Coluccia et al., 2021). questionnaire, which was repeated twice until the convergence of

Fig. 1. Steps of the Delphi method.

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G.C. Malafaia et al. Livestock Science 253 (2021) 104704

responses was obtained. This method has often been used in research on events (Step 5). The cross-impact matrix was used to quantify how much
challenges in supply chains and global trends (Hu et al., 2019; Raut each possible event can impact the others in the actual scenario (Step 6).
et al., 2021). The statistical analysis was based on the Bayes theorem, which calcu­
Regarding future drivers (basis for defining possible events) (Step 2), lates the probability of an event occurring given the occurrence of a
the facts that are occurring and those that may have an impact on the previous event (Joyce, 2019).
future were raised, comprising a matrix of themes that link the main In sequence, the most likely future scenarios were selected through
stages of the beef cattle supply chain (inputs, agricultural production, the analysis of the control group (multidisciplinary group of specialists
industry, commercialisation and consumption) with the dimensions of from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply [MAPA]
the Steeple methodology. This methodology contemplates the following and the (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, 2020)), which
dimensions: social, technological, economic, environmental, political, was composed of its own specialists to analyse the results and create
legal and ethical (Lomas and McLeod, 2020). Thus, 754 future drivers possible scenarios (Step 7). The scenario with the highest probability of
were identified that might affect the beef cattle supply chain in the occurrence was called the most likely scenario.
future. Finally, future scenarios were presented based on analysis of the
In sequence, the results led to 96 possible events in eight blocks (Step control group and on the megatrends for the Brazilian beef cattle supply
3): inputs (health/genetics), inputs (nutrition/forage), production chain in 2040, with the main challenges (Step 8). The megatrends were
(management), production (structure), slaughterhouse, consumption, created by clustering trends mapped by stage and grouping the ten­
commercialisation and regulation. These events were analysed by spe­ dencies by similarity.
cialists who rated the probability of occurrence of each of them (Step 4).
The investigations started by contacting 803 Brazilian specialists from 3. Results and discussion
all regions of the country. Each specialist received a specific topic ac­
cording to their speciality and was able to answer other topics of free 3.1. Megatrends
choice. The authors received 187 responses in the first round and 109 in
the second round, with a total participation of 153 experts in both. Ten megatrends were defined for the Brazilian beef cattle supply
After completing the four steps, the data on probabilities and perti­ chain in 2040:
nence were consolidated to calculate motricity and dependence of the 1) biological advances in waste management; 2) biotechnological

Table 1
Megatrends and stages of the Brazilian beef supply chain in 2040.

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transformation of beef farming; 3) less grass and more meat; 4) profits et al., 2018), more accurate evaluations about the industry (Liang et al.,
based on animal welfare; 5) consolidated livestock with major players; 2020) and new policies focused on the producers (Vilpoux et al., 2021).
6) more natural and quality-demanding slaughterhouses; 7) meat with a Agribusiness is going through a time when market orientation sug­
designation of origin; 8) digital technology that transforms the entire gests a shift to product quality coupled with quantity. The beef cattle
supply chain; 9) availability of qualified labour; 10) Brazil as a major supply chain is one of the main examples of products that suffer from
exporter of meat and genetics. adverse effects (Robles, 2010). The sixth megatrend supports this situ­
The results are interpreted amongst the 10 megatrends to the Bra­ ation by prioritising aspects of demand for more natural and quality
zilian beef cattle supply chain in 2040, interconnecting their stages products. The increasingly demanding consumer could require more
(inputs, agricultural production, industry, commercialisation and con­ natural products with less additives.
sumption) (Table 1). It is useful to understand which changes could New requirements will be needed in the acquisition of raw materials
occur in all of them. (inputs), such as meat quality and more sustainable management sys­
Data analysis allows an understanding of how feeding in the grazing tems (Magnier et al., 2016) derived from biological products and animal
system can assist the production and which type of management should welfare in rural properties (Queiroz et al., 2018; Winckler, 2019). This is
be used to improve the production results. This is a concern to be observed in the foreign market but will be, in the coming years, inten­
highlighted regarding resource availability issues (Cardoso et al., 2020). sified by the Brazilian consumer, especially in terms of product quality
The use of inputs related to environmental concerns will have a move­ (Panea and Ripoll, 2020; Grasso et al., 2021).
ment towards the thrifty use of environmental resources (Ruviaro et al., The debate in the literature regarding the designation of origin is
2015). These processes are linked to the reverse logistics of veterinary recurrent, as in the case of products with more sophisticated consumers,
medicines and lead to more effective disease control. such as cheese and wine. The seventh megatrend brings up the discus­
The tendency to use biological inputs is a result of farmer efforts. sion of the designation of origin for meats in the coming decades (Gia­
Examples of expanding applications in production could be alternative nezini et al., 2014), as in Europe. In the search for added value, the first
and biological therapies and integrated epidemiological control in the stages of the beef cattle supply chain will seek different cuts for meat
treatment of diseases. This field highlights that room exists for studies on (Savell et al., 1989) and production processes that meet new national
new strategies to reduce the frequency of illnesses, such as respiratory and international requirements (Panea and Ripoll, 2020).
diseases currently treated with antimicrobial programmes (Devant and In this sense, this megatrend indicates that consumers will be looking
Marti, 2020). for new gastronomic experiences (EIT, 2021), linked to the improve­
The transformation related to health and genetics will concern the ments that could occur in the meat supply chain. The integration of
biological control of parasites and the quality of meat by transgenic production via digital technology will help in maintaining the trans­
manipulation. The implementation of reproductive biotechnology is parency of the process to stakeholders (Hou et al., 2019; Bogataj et al.,
known to improve outcomes (Fernandez-Novo et al., 2020). The diffu­ 2020).
sion of breeding biotechniques could occur with an increase in the Distribution (inputs, meat) should be the key to the eighth mega­
number of genetically improved animals. Brazil could be prominent in trend, as the activity of intermediaries could be extinguished in the
genetic exports. The genetic and production improvements can result in supply chain in the coming years. Recurrently, words like quality, sus­
less pasture area and higher yields (Fernandes et al., 2020; Dohlman tainability and digital interaction with the consumer should be the great
et al., 2021). differentials for those who intend to remain in the sector and have
The integrated crop-livestock-forest system (ILPF) changes the level positive results.
of technological adoption in beef cattle systems. The change to a In slaughterhouses, technological processes will enable more asser­
reduction in pastures should lead to an increase in the number of ani­ tiveness, with lower costs and higher productivity and product quality
mals per property, with greater productivity. Investments in the trans­ (Fernandes et al., 2019). For this, the management of rural properties
formation of pastures led to the recovery of degraded areas. However, will undergo a new paradigm for intensification (Jaurena et al., 2021)
cattle stocking rate per hectare can result in animal behaviour disorders and a transformation resulting from digital and technological tools,
(Tarantola et al., 2020) and negative externalities can occur depending identifying opportunities for improvements and superior results. An
on soil and crop management and local climate (Tavanti et al., 2020). example of this is the smart farming, which has been applied in several
This path, supported by public policies, should improve the image of countries (Pivoto et al., 2018, 2019).
the beef cattle industry in Brazil. This improvement can be seen within The increase in the Brazilian urban population, something that is
the country and worldwide. A productive diversity with the environ­ already occurring in several countries, brings up a way to rethink the
ment should increase the number of cattle produced. Animal welfare is a organisation of the supply chains that depend on rural labour. This has
crucial issue to beef cattle, as the animals are subject to problems, such technological innovation as its main driver of change (Pivoto et al.,
as respiratory diseases, mixing of animals and digestive and behaviour 2019). For instance, internet of things, more technological production
disorders. In this context, the farmer must identify and select suitable systems, integrated crop-livestock-forest system and efficient manage­
welfare measures for the production system (Tarantola et al., 2020). ment of rural properties should demand highly trained professionals for
Achieving animal welfare will be mandatory (Canozzi et al., 2020). the new paths of Brazilian agribusiness.
Certificates that prove better production practices will be required The tenth megatrend refers to a more widespread subject in
throughout the supply chain (Boito et al., 2021). Management is a academia and in public and private organisations: Brazil as a major
determining aspect for conducting production with the aim of adopting exporter of meat and probably animal genetics. It is worth highlighting
guidance that is more technical and specialised. The managerial and the importance of observing this from the stages that make up the beef
entrepreneurial technology transformation should select players in the cattle supply chain, which has been emerging in national and interna­
market and eliminate those that are not updated. A new reality is ex­ tional markets and contributing to the Brazilian trade balance surplus
pected that will force farms to improve their production patterns (Dill (Ministry of Economy, 2021).
et al., 2015). Brazil’s position as one of the largest food producers and exporters in
As a result, requirements for quantity and quality could appear. the world will be maintained and even surpassed (Food and Agriculture
Turning production into a player with more needs for investments and Organization of the United Nations FAO, 2021). However, biotech­
control should be indispensable. The number of farmers is predicted to nology and the greater alignment of the entire supply chain to ensure
decrease, while the committed professionals should remain in the sector. better genetic standards, sustainable production systems, animal welfare
Several characteristics will be added to this discussion, such as which and meat quality will be the basis for the growth and development of the
farmers will be prepared to reach differentiated markets (Sobrosa Neto beef cattle supply chain (Kanashiro and Fraisse, 2015).

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3.2. Social, managerial and policy implications and guaranteeing that Brazilian companies have continuous access to
the capital market (Fitch Solutions, 2021b). To change this, it is ex­
The Covid-19 pandemic changed consumption habits, as well as the pected that Brazilian producers increasingly learn and improve their
labour force and the perspectives of food supply chains (Manojkrishnan practices.
and Aravind, 2020; Coluccia et al., 2021). Adjustments are predicted
regarding consumer priorities for human health and environmental 4. Final remarks
sustainability. Until 2040, consumers should change their consumption
patterns, due to increasing awareness of food safety and ethical issues The development of this research presents economic, social and
that should have a greater impact on preferences. These factors will lead environmental issues for the public and private spheres. For instance,
consumers to increasingly incorporate self-stable foods into their diets, a producing more meat in a smaller area could increase the amount of
change that is relevant in the protein sector (Knoll et al., 2017; Global land available for agriculture and forestry. In the international scenario,
Panel, 2021). Brazil is expected to be a major exporter of meat and probably animal
Emerging markets are seeking to adopt new technologies driven by genetics, specialised and with added value, thereby contributing more to
resources and food scarcity, health awareness and environmental impact the Brazilian GDP.
(Navarrete-Molina et al., 2019; Cardoso et al., 2020). Cultured meat is The authors provide the construction of an original way to under­
one of the results of new technologies aimed at providing alternative stand what could happen in the Brazilian beef cattle supply chain until
affordable foods by creating pathogen-free products and plant-based 2040. The data provide a basis for policy insights and can be used to
meat (Bryant and Sanctorum, 2021; Jairath et al., 2021). If the cell improve company and government practices. The global reference in the
protein costs used in this process are reduced and the developed prod­ supply chain should come from highly technical, professional and
ucts provide accessible nutrition, this technology can help the poorest competitive livestock production, mainly based on innovation, tech­
populations and reduce the risk of food shortages in developing coun­ nology and quality.
tries (Fitch Solutions, 2020; Hong et al., 2021). The reality expected in the coming years should be a technified,
The protein market could achieve new product alternatives in the intensive and short cycle beef supply chain. However, this could demand
coming years. This sector has been dynamic in terms of product inno­ crucial adjustments to the production flow to achieve new market re­
vation, distribution and marketing strategies. However, the impact on quirements, with different consciousness about the product and its
this sector should be minimal based on the actual levels of beef con­ process. Finally, the challenge is to use this research to continuously
sumption per capita (especially on a global scale) in the short term. It improve discussions about the megatrends as a way to achieve new
may begin to have a greater impact in the medium and long terms (Fitch agendas and originate scenarios that impact supply chain transitions.
Solutions, 2021a).
International inquiries regarding Brazil’s environmental protection, CRediT authorship contribution statement
particularly in relation to deforestation in the Amazon, pose a risk to the
reputation of Brazilian agribusiness and to foreign investment in the Guilherme Cunha Malafaia: Conceptualization, Methodology,
sector. Brazil’s beef and soy sectors are at the greatest risk, as these Software, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data curation,
sectors are associated with illegal deforestation. Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Funding acquisition. Giana de
Large global companies operating in Brazil demand better moni­ Vargas Mores: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Formal
toring of environmental measures against these problems. Major beef analysis, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
exporters are expected to continue to improve supply chain traceability editing, Visualization. Yasmin Gomes Casagranda: Conceptualization,
and to implement changes in governance, which is important for Bra­ Methodology, Validation, Formal analysis, Data curation, Writing –
zilian slaughterhouses (Fernandes et al., 2020; Lovarelli et al., 2020). In original draft, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Júlio Otávio
addition, several Brazilian regions have acquired a new sanitary status Jardim Barcellos: Writing – review & editing. Fernando Paim Costa:
for foot and mouth disease, which will result in a new wave of livestock Writing – review & editing.
with international repercussions (Menezes et al., 2020).
However, the challenge is not an easy to overcome. Livestock prop­
erties with fewer than 50 animals account for 76.3% of the total and Declaration of Competing Interest
16.5% of the Brazilian herd. These properties are estimated to be
responsible for 13% of the total production of animals, with 50% of the None.
total production in calves (IBGE, 2017). These numbers are accompa­
nied by social challenges for managers and for the future of food and Acknowledgement
agribusiness (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FAO, 2017; Freitas et al., 2019). This work was supported by the National Council for Scientific and
The unfeasibility of establishing efficient control can pressure the Technological Development (CNPq - Brazil) [grant number 420981/
market, reducing the number of players (producers) that could be able to 2018-7] and the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
meet all requirements. It can contribute to informality where there is no (MAPA - Brazil).
inspection, traceability or generation of taxes. If combatting this is
successful, it could be achieved at a high cost of excluding small farmers Supplementary materials
and increasing meat prices to consumers. Despite the importance of
controlling each stage of the supply chain, it is essential that these ac­ Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in
tions be planned in a coordinated and inclusive manner, taking into the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.livsci.2021.104704.
account the knowledge available about the reality of the field (Jaurena
et al., 2021).
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