Timeseries Paper
Timeseries Paper
Timeseries Paper
CHENHUI XU
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357786404_A_LITERATURE_REVIEW_ON_TIME_SERIES_FORECAS
TING_METHODS
Forecasting of time series data has fundamental importance in various practical domains. Three
important classes of time series models, viz. stochastic, neural networks and support vector machines
are studied together with their inherent forecasting strengths and weaknesses. Basic issues related to
time series analysis, such as stationarity, parsimony, overfitting, etc. Our study is enriched by
presenting the empirical forecasting results, conducted on six real-world time series datasets. Five
performance measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracies of different models as well as to
compare the models.Its goal is to increase the amount of knowledge regarding time series forecasting
and its methods.INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES FORECASTING This literature review will
follow a narrative approach to gain insight into the research topic. A time series is a set of
observations, each being recorded at a particular time and the collection of such observation is
referred to as time-series data. The data is analyzed to extract statistical information, characteristics of
the data, and to predict the output. As the data might tend to follow a pattern in time series data, the
Machine Learning model finds it difficult to predict appropriately hence time series analysis and its
approaches have made it simpler for prediction. The methods used and result from those methods
achieved by former researchers will be summarized including different methods on time series and
comparing them with each other.
There has been a growing interest in the field of neural networks for prediction in recent years. In this
research, a public dataset including the sales history of a retail store is investigated to forecast the
sales of furniture. To this aim, several forecasting models are applied. First, some classical time-series
forecasting techniques such as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and
Triple Exponential Smoothing are utilized. Then, more advanced methods such as Prophet, Long
Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) are applied. The
performances of the models are compared using different accuracy measurement methods (e.g., Root
Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)). The results show the
superiority of the Stacked LSTM method over the other methods. In addition, the results indicate the
good performances of the Prophet and CNN models.
In this comparative study, fourdifferent time-series analysis models, namely the ARIMA model, the
Prophet model, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, and the Transformer
model, are investigated to determine which has the best performance whenpredicting the future case
trends of COVID-19 in six countries. After
obtaining the publicly available COVID-19 case data from Johns Hopkins University Center for
Systems Science and Engineering database, we conduct repetitive experiments which exploit the data
to predict future trends for all models. The performance is then evaluated by mean squared error
(MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. The results show that overall the LSTM
model has the best performance for all countries that it can achieve extremely low MSE and MAE.
The Transformer model has the second-best performance with highly satisfactory results in some
countries, and the other models have poorer performance. This project highlights the high accuracy of
the LSTM model, which can be used to predict the spread of COVID-19 so that countries
can be better prepared and aware when controlling the spread.