Members' Guide To 2023 Refresher Readings: in The Mainland of China, CFA Institute Accepts CFA® Charterholders Only
Members' Guide To 2023 Refresher Readings: in The Mainland of China, CFA Institute Accepts CFA® Charterholders Only
Members' Guide To 2023 Refresher Readings: in The Mainland of China, CFA Institute Accepts CFA® Charterholders Only
2023 REFRESHER
READINGS
Derivatives 5
Readings 5
What Is Changing in the 2023 Curriculum, and Why Does
It Matter? 6
Derivative Instrument and Derivative Market Features 11
Forward Commitment and Contingent Claim Features
and Instruments 13
Derivative Benefits, Risks, and Issuer and Investor Uses 16
Arbitrage, Replication, and the Cost of Carry in Pricing
Derivatives 18
Pricing and Valuation of Forward Contracts and for an
Underlying with Varying Maturities 21
Pricing and Valuation of Futures Contracts 24
Pricing and Valuation of Interest Rate and Other Swaps 27
Pricing and Valuation of Options 30
Option Replication Using Put–Call Parity 33
Valuing a Derivative Using a One-Period Binomial Model 36
Economics 39
Reading 39
What Is Changing in the 2023 Curriculum, and Why Does
It Matter? 40
Introduction to Geopolitics 41
Corporate Issuers 49
Readings 49
Contents
Alternative Investments 89
Readings 89
What Is Changing in the 2023 Curriculum, and Why Does
It Matter? 90
Categories, Characteristics, and Compensation Structures
of Alternative Investments 92
Performance Calculation and Appraisal of Alternative
Investments 100
Private Capital, Real Estate, Infrastructure, Natural
Resources, and Hedge Funds 103
Overview of Types of Real Estate Investment 106
Investments in Real Estate through Private Vehicles 110
Investments in Real Estate through Publicly Traded
Securities 112
Ethics 141
Reading 141
What Is Changing in the 2023 Curriculum, and Why Does
It Matter? 142
Application of the Code and Standards: Level II 143
expiration. This reading also sets out how investors can profit from a
long or a short position in a call or put option.
Users of forward commitments should be able to calculate their
values at maturity and this reading demonstrates how to do this. It
highlights how credit default swap (CDS) contracts allow an inves-
tor to manage the risk of loss from issuer default separately from a
cash bond. The reading focuses on how market participants can cre-
ate similar exposures to an underlying asset using firm commitments
and contingent claims.
The new “Derivative Benefits, Risks, and Issuer and Investor
Uses”reading describes the benefits and risks of using derivatives
and compares their use among issuers and investors.
Derivatives can offer greater operational and market efficiency
than cash markets and allow investors to create exposures unavail-
able in cash markets. It is important, however, to understand the risk
these derivative positions can entail. Excessive risk taking by mar-
ket participants has contributed to market destabilization and sys-
temic risk in the past. As the reading makes clear, users of derivative
instruments must be able to manage risks, including a high degree
of implicit leverage and less transparency, along with basis, liquidity,
and counterparty credit risks.
How the price of a forward commitment is related to the
spot price of an underlying asset is explored in the “Arbitrage,
Replication, and the Cost of Carry in Pricing Derivatives” reading.
This reading also demonstrates how costs or benefits associated with
owning an underlying asset affect the forward price.
Knowing the key features of derivatives is necessary, but not suf-
ficient, to use them successfully. This reading explains the pricing
and valuation of forward commitments on a mark-to-market basis
from inception through maturity. This analysis is essential for issu-
ers, investors, and financial intermediaries to assess the value of any
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• define a derivative and describe basic features of a derivative
instrument;
• describe the basic features of derivative markets; and
• contrast over-the-counter (OTC) and exchange-traded derivative
(ETD) markets.
Introduction
Earlier lessons described markets for financial assets related to equi-
ties, fixed income, currencies, and commodities. These markets are
known as cash markets or spot markets in which specific assets are
exchanged at current prices referred to as cash prices or spot prices.
Summary
• A derivative is a financial contract that derives its value from the
performance of an underlying asset, which may represent a firm
commitment or a contingent claim.
• Derivative markets expand the set of opportunities available to
market participants beyond the cash market to create or modify
exposure to an underlying.
• The most common derivative underlying assets include equities,
fixed income and interest rates, currencies, commodities, and
credit.
• OTC derivative markets involve the initiation of customized,
flexible contracts between derivatives end users and financial
intermediaries.
• ETDs are standardized contracts traded on an organized
exchange, which requires collateral on deposit to protect against
counterparty default.
• For derivatives that are centrally cleared, a central counterparty
(CCP) assumes the counterparty credit risk of the derivative
counterparties and provides clearing and settlement services.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• define forward contracts, futures contracts, swaps, options
(calls and puts), and credit derivatives and compare their basic
characteristics;
• determine the value at expiration and profit from a long or a
short position in a call or put option; and
• contrast forward commitments with contingent claims.
Introduction
An earlier lesson established a derivative as a financial instrument
that derives its performance from an underlying asset, index, or other
financial variable, such as equity price volatility. Primary derivative
types include a firm commitment in which a predetermined amount
is agreed to be exchanged between counterparties at settlement and
a contingent claim in which one of the counterparties determines
whether and when the trade will settle. The following lessons define
and compare the basic features of forward commitments and contin-
gent claims and explain how to calculate their values at maturity.
Summary
• Forwards, futures, and swaps represent firm commitments, or
derivative contracts that require counterparties to exchange an
underlying in the future based on an agreed-on price.
• Forwards are a flexible over-the-counter (OTC) derivative
instrument, whereas futures are standardized and traded on an
exchange with a daily settlement of contract gains and losses.
• Swap contracts are a firm commitment to exchange a series of
cash flows in the future. Interest rate swaps are the most com-
mon type and involve the exchange of fixed interest payments for
floating interest payments.
• Option contracts are contingent claims in which one of the
counterparties determines whether and when a trade will settle.
The option buyer pays a premium to the seller for the right to
transact the underlying in the future at an agreed-upon exercise
price.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe benefits and risks of derivative instruments, and
• compare the use of derivatives among issuers and investors.
Introduction
Earlier lessons described how derivatives expand the set of oppor-
tunities available to market participants to create or modify expo-
sure or to hedge the price of an underlying. This learning module
describes the benefits and risks of using derivatives and compares
their use among issuers and investors.
Summary
• Derivatives allow market participants to allocate, manage, or
trade exposure without exchanging an underlying in the cash
market.
• Derivatives also offer greater operational and market efficiency
than cash markets and allow users to create exposures unavail-
able in cash markets.
• Derivative instruments can involve risks, such as a high degree of
implicit leverage and less transparency in some cases than cash
instruments, as well as basis, liquidity, and counterparty credit
risks. Excessive risk taking in the past by market participants
through the use of derivatives has contributed to market destabi-
lization and systemic risk.
• Issuers typically use derivative instruments to offset or hedge
market-based underlying exposures that affect their assets, lia-
bilities, and earnings.
• Issuers usually seek hedge accounting treatment for derivatives
to minimize income statement and cash flow volatility.
• Investors use derivatives to modify investment portfolio cash
flows, replicate investment strategy returns in cash markets, and
create exposures unavailable to cash market participants.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain how the concepts of arbitrage and replication are used in
pricing derivatives, and
• explain the difference between the spot and expected future
price of an underlying and the cost of carry associated with hold-
ing the underlying asset.
Introduction
Earlier derivative lessons established the features of derivative
instruments and markets and addressed both the benefits and risks
Summary
• Forward commitments are an alternative means of taking a long
or short position in an underlying asset. A link between forward
prices and spot prices exists to prevent investors from taking
advantage of arbitrage opportunities across cash and derivative
instruments.
• A forward commitment may be replicated with a long or short
spot position in the underlying asset and borrowing or lending
at a risk-free rate. Investors can recreate a variety of positions
by using appropriate combinations of spot, forward, and risk-free
positions.
• The risk-free rate provides a fundamental link between spot and
forward prices for underlying assets with no additional costs or
benefits of ownership.
• The cost of carry is the net of the costs and benefits related to
owning an underlying asset for a specific period and must be fac-
tored into the difference between the spot price and a forward
price of a specific underlying asset.
• The cost of carry may include costs, such as storage and insur-
ance for physical commodities, or benefits of ownership, such
as dividends for stocks and interest for bonds. Foreign exchange
represents a special case in which the cost of carry is the interest
rate differential between two currencies.
• Forward prices may be greater than or less than the underlying
spot price, depending on the specific cost of carry associated
with owning the underlying asset.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain how the value and price of a forward contract are deter-
mined at initiation, during the life of the contract, and at expira-
tion; and
• explain how forward rates are determined for an underlying with
a term structure and describe their uses.
Introduction
Earlier lessons introduced forward commitment features, payoff pro-
files, and concepts used in pricing these derivative instruments. In
particular, the relationship between spot and forward commitment
prices was established as the opportunity cost of owning the underly-
ing asset (represented by the risk-free rate) as well as any additional
cost or benefit associated with holding the underlying asset. This
price relationship both prevents arbitrage and allows a forward com-
mitment to be replicated using spot market transactions and risk-free
borrowing or lending.
In the first lesson, we explore the pricing and valuation of for-
ward commitments on a mark-to-market (MTM) basis from incep-
tion through maturity. This analysis is essential for issuers, investors,
and financial intermediaries to assess the value of any asset or lia-
bility portfolio that includes these instruments. The second lesson
addresses forward pricing for the special case of underlying assets
with different maturities, such as interest rates, credit spreads, and
volatility. The prices of these forward commitments across the so-
called term structure are important building blocks for pricing swaps
and related instruments in later lessons.
Summary
• A forward commitment price agreed upon at contract inception
remains fixed and establishes the basis on which the underlying
asset (or cash) will be exchanged in the future versus the spot
price at maturity.
• For an underlying asset that does not generate cash flows, the
value of a long forward commitment before expiration is equal
to the current spot price of the underlying asset minus the pres-
ent value of the forward price discounted at the risk-free rate.
The reverse is true for a short forward commitment. Foreign
exchange represents a special case in which the spot versus for-
ward price is a function of the difference between risk-free rates
across currencies.
• For an underlying asset with additional costs and benefits, the
forward contract MTM value is adjusted by the sum of the pres-
ent values of all additional cash flows through maturity.
• Underlying assets with a term structure, such as interest rates,
have different rates or prices for different times-to-maturity.
These zero or spot and forward rates are derived from coupon
bonds and market reference rates and establish the building
blocks of interest rate derivatives pricing.
• Implied forward rates represent a breakeven reinvestment rate
linking short-dated and long-dated zero-coupon bonds over a
specific period.
• A forward rate agreement (FRA) is a contract in which counter-
parties agree to apply a specific interest rate to a future period.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• compare the value and price of forward and futures contracts,
and
• explain why forward and futures prices differ.
Introduction
Many of the pricing and valuation principles associated with forward
commitments are common to both forward and futures contracts.
For example, previous lessons demonstrated that forward commit-
ments have a price that prevents market participants from earning
riskless profit through arbitrage. It was shown that long and short
forward commitments may be replicated using a combination of long
Summary
• Futures are standardized, exchange-traded derivatives (ETDs)
with zero initial value and a futures price f 0(T) established at
inception. The futures price, f 0(T), is equal to the spot price com-
pounded at the risk-free rate as in the case of a forward contract.
• The primary difference between forward and futures valuation is
the daily settlement of futures gains and losses through a margin
account. The daily settlement resets the futures contract value
to zero at the current futures price f t(T). This process continues
until contract maturity and the futures price converges to the
spot price, ST.
• The cumulative realized mark-to-market (MTM) gain or loss on
a futures contract is approximately the same as that for a compa-
rable forward contract.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe how swap contracts are similar to but different from a
series of forward contracts, and
• contrast the value and price of swaps.
Introduction
Swap contracts were introduced earlier as a firm commitment to
exchange a series of cash flows in the future. Interest rate swaps in
which fixed cash flows are exchanged for floating payments are the
most common type. Subsequent lessons addressed the pricing and
Summary
• A swap contract is an agreement between two counterparties to
exchange a series of future cash flows, whereas a forward con-
tract is a single exchange of value at a later date.
• Interest rate swaps are similar to forwards in that both contracts
are firm commitments with symmetric payoff profiles and no
cash is exchanged at inception, but they differ in that the fixed
swap rate is constant, whereas a series of forward contracts has
different forward rates at each maturity.
• A swap is priced by solving for the par swap rate, a fixed rate that
sets the present value of all future expected floating cash flows
equal to the present value of all future fixed cash flows.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain the exercise value, moneyness, and time value of an
option;
• contrast the use of arbitrage and replication concepts in pricing
forward commitments and contingent claims; and
• identify the factors that determine the value of an option and
describe how each factor affects the value of an option.
Introduction
Option contracts are contingent claims in which one of the coun-
terparties determines whether and when a trade will settle. Unlike a
forward commitment with a value of zero to both counterparties at
inception, an option buyer pays a premium to the seller for the right
to transact the underlying in the future at an agreed-upon price. The
contingent nature of options affects their price as well as their value
over time.
In the first lesson, we explore three features distinct to contingent
claims related to an option’s value versus the spot price of the under-
lying: (1) the exercise, or intrinsic, value; (2) the relationship between
an option’s spot price and its exercise price, referred to as “money-
ness”; and (3) the time value. We then turn to how the arbitrage and
replication concepts introduced earlier for forward commitments
differ when applied to contingent claims with an asymmetric payoff
profile. Finally, we identify and describe factors that determine the
value of an option. These lessons focus on European options, which
can be exercised only at expiration.
Summary
• An option’s value includes its exercise value and its time value.
The exercise value is the option’s value if it were immediately
exercisable, whereas the time value captures the possibility that
the passage of time and the variability of the underlying price
will increase the profitability of exercise at maturity.
• Option moneyness expresses the relationship between the
underlying price and the exercise price. A put–call option is “at
the money” when the underlying price equals the exercise price.
An option is more likely to be exercised if it is “in the money”—
with an underlying price above (for a call) or below (for a put) the
exercise price—and is less likely to be exercised if it is “out of the
money.”
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain put–call parity for European options, and
• explain put–call forward parity for European options.
Introduction
Previous lessons examined the payoff and profit profiles of call
options and put options, the upper and lower bounds of an option’s
value, and the factors impacting option values. In doing so, we con-
trasted the asymmetry of one-sided option payoffs with the linear or
symmetric payoff of forwards and underlying assets.
We now extend this analysis to show how to combine options
to have an equivalent payoff to that of the underlying and a risk-
free asset as well as a forward commitment. In the first lesson, we
Summary
• Put–call parity establishes a relationship that allows the price of
a call option to be derived from the price of a put option with the
same underlying details and vice versa.
• Put–call parity holds for European options with the same exer-
cise price and expiration date, representing a no-arbitrage rela-
tionship between put option, call option, underlying asset, and
risk-free asset prices.
• If put–call parity does not hold, then riskless arbitrage profit
opportunities may be available to investors.
• Put–call forward parity extends the put–call parity relationship
to forward contracts given the equivalence of an underlying asset
position and a long forward contract plus a risk-free bond.
• Under put–call forward parity, we may demonstrate that a pur-
chased put option and a sold call option are equivalent to a long
risk-free bond and short forward position, and a sold put and
purchased call are equivalent to a long forward and short risk-
free bond.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain how to value a derivative using a one-period binomial
model, and
• describe the concept of risk neutrality in derivatives pricing.
Introduction
Earlier lessons explained how the principle of no arbitrage and repli-
cation can be used to value and price derivatives. The put–call parity
relationship linked put option, call option, underlying asset, and risk-
free asset prices. This relationship was extended to forward contracts
given the equivalence of an underlying asset position and a long for-
ward contract plus a risk-free bond.
Summary
• The one-period binomial model values contingent claims, such as
options, and assumes the underlying asset will either increase by
Ru (up gross return) or decrease by Rd (down gross return) over a
single period that corresponds to the expiration of the derivative
contract.
• The binomial model combines an option with the underlying
asset to create a risk-free portfolio in which the proportion of
the option to the underlying security is determined by a hedge
ratio.
• The hedged portfolio must earn the prevailing risk-free rate of
return; otherwise, riskless arbitrage profit opportunities would
be available.
• Valuing a derivative through risk-free hedging is equivalent to
computing the discounted expected payoff of the option using
risk-neutral probabilities rather than actual probabilities.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe geopolitics from a cooperation versus competition
perspective,
• describe geopolitics and its relationship with globalization,
• describe tools of geopolitics and their impact on regions and
economies, and
• describe geopolitical risk and its impact on investments.
Introduction
The international environment is constantly evolving. Such trends
as the growth of emerging market economies, globalization, and the
rise of populism affect the range of opportunities and threats that
companies, industries, nations, and regional groups face. They can
Summary
• Geopolitics is the study of how geography affects politics and
international relations. Within the field of geopolitics, analysts
study actors—the individuals, organizations, companies, and
national governments that carry out political, economic, and
financial activities—and how they interact with one another.
• State actors can be cooperative or noncooperative. A country
may want to cooperate with its neighbors or with other state
actors for many reasons, which typically are defined according to
a country’s national interest.
• National security or national defense involves protecting a coun-
try, its citizens, economy, and institutions, from external threats.
These threats may be broad in nature—ranging from military
attack and terrorism, to crime, cyber-security, and even natural
disasters.
• Geographic factors play an important role in shaping a country’s
approach to national security and the extent to which it will
choose a cooperative approach. Landlocked countries rely exten-
sively on their neighbors for access to vital resources. Countries
highly connected to trade routes or countries acting as a conduit
for trade may use their geographic location as a lever of power.
• Generally, strong institutions contribute to more stable internal
and external political forces. Countries with strong institutions,
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• compare business structures and describe key features of corpo-
rate issuers,
• compare public and private companies, and
• compare the financial claims and motivations of lenders and
owners.
Introduction
In 1997, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, an engineer and a
computer scientist, started a company called NuvoMedia to make an
electronic book reader they called the Rocket eBook, a precursor to
the Kindle eBook popularized by Amazon. Three years after it was
founded, NuvoMedia was sold for USD187 million.
Summary
• Common forms of business structures include sole proprietor-
ships, general and limited partnerships, and corporations.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe a company’s stakeholder groups and compare their
interests;
• describe the principal–agent relationship and conflicts that may
arise between stakeholder groups;
• describe corporate governance and mechanisms to manage
stakeholder relationships and mitigate associated risks;
• describe both the potential risks of poor corporate governance
and stakeholder management and the benefits from effective cor-
porate governance and stakeholder management;
• describe environmental, social, and governance (ESG) consider-
ations in investment analysis; and
• describe ESG investment approaches.
Introduction
All companies operate in a complex ecosystem composed of inter-
ested stakeholder groups that are dependent on the company as well
as each other for economic success. Key stakeholder groups include
the company’s capital providers, otherwise referred to as its debt- and
equityholders. In addition, companies have a number of other inter-
ested parties.
These stakeholder groups do not necessarily share the same goals
for, nor seek the same ends from, the company. The interests of any
one stakeholder group may diverge or conflict with that of others and,
in some cases, with the interests of the company itself. A company’s
ability to maximize long-term value for shareholders and generate
sufficient profitability to make its debt obligations is compromised
if one stakeholder group is able to consistently extract benefits to the
detriment of another group. Therefore, the controls and mechanisms
to harmonize and safeguard the interests of the company’s stakehold-
ers are key areas of both interest and risk for financial analysts.
Summary
The investment community is increasingly recognizing and quan-
tifying environmental and social considerations and the impacts
of corporate governance in the investment process. Analysts who
understand these considerations can better evaluate their associated
implications and risks for an investment decision. Following are the
core concepts covered in this reading:
• The primary stakeholder groups of a corporation consist of
shareholders, creditors, the board of directors, managers and
employees, customers, suppliers, and government and regulators.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe key features and types of business models;
• describe expected relations between a company’s external envi-
ronment, business model, and financing needs; and
• explain and classify types of business and financial risks for a
company.
Introduction
A clearly described business model helps the analyst understand a
business, including how it operates, its strategy, target customers,
key partners, prospects, risks, and financial profile. Rather than rely
on management’s description of its business model, analysts should
develop their own understanding.
Summary
• A business model describes how a business is organized to deliver
value to its customers:
■■ who its customers are,
■■ how the business serves them,
■■ key assets and suppliers, and
■■ the supporting business logic.
• The firm’s “value proposition” refers to the product or service
attributes valued by a firm’s target customer that lead those cus-
tomers to prefer a firm’s offering over those of its competitors,
given relative pricing.
• Channel strategy may be a key element of a business model, and
it addresses how the firm is reaching its customers.
• Pricing is often a key element of the business model. Pricing
approaches are typically value or cost based.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe types of capital investments made by companies;
• describe the capital allocation process and basic principles of
capital allocation;
• demonstrate the use of net present value (NPV) and internal rate
of return (IRR) in allocating capital and describe the advantages
and disadvantages of each method;
• describe common capital allocation pitfalls;
• describe expected relations among a company’s investments,
company value, and share price; and
• describe types of real options relevant to capital investment.
Introduction
Capital investments, also referred to as capital projects, are invest-
ments with a life of one year or longer made by corporate issuers.
Summary
Capital investments—those investments with a life of one year or
longer—are key in determining whether a company is profitable and
generating value for its shareholders. Capital allocation is the pro-
cess companies use to decide their capital investment activity. This
reading introduces capital investments, basic principles underlying
the capital allocation model, and the use of NPV and IRR decision
criteria.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• compare methods to finance working capital;
• explain expected relations between working capital, liquidity,
and short-term funding needs;
• describe sources of primary and secondary liquidity and factors
affecting a company’s liquidity position;
• compare a company’s liquidity position with that of peers; and
• evaluate short-term funding choices available to a company.
Introduction
Working capital (also called net working capital) is defined simply as
current assets minus current liabilities:
Summary
We consider key aspects of short-term financial management: the
choices available to fund a company’s working capital needs and
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain factors affecting capital structure;
• describe how a company’s capital structure may change over its
life cycle;
• explain the Modigliani–Miller propositions regarding capital
structure;
• describe the use of target capital structure in estimating WACC,
and calculate and interpret target capital structure weights; and
• describe competing stakeholder interests in capital structure
decisions.
Introduction
Capital structure refers to the specific mix of debt and equity used
to finance a company’s assets and operations. From a corporate
Summary
• Financing decisions typically are tied to investment spending
and are based on the company’s ability to support debt given the
nature of its business model, assets, and operating cash flows.
• A company’s stage in the life cycle, its cash flow characteristics,
and its ability to support debt largely dictate its capital structure,
because capital not sourced through borrowing must come from
equity (including retained earnings).
• Generally speaking, as companies mature and move from start-
up through growth to maturity, their business risk declines as
operating cash flows turn positive with increasing predictability,
allowing for greater use of leverage on more attractive terms.
• Modigliani and Miller’s work, with its simplifying assumptions,
provides a starting point for thinking about the strategic use of
debt and shows us that managers cannot change firm value sim-
ply by changing the firm’s capital structure. Firm value is inde-
pendent of capital structure decisions.
• Given the tax-deductibility of interest, adding leverage increases
firm value up to a point but also increases the risk of default for
capital providers who demand higher returns in compensation.
• To maximize firm value, management should target the optimal
capital structure that minimizes the company’s weighted average
cost of capital.
• “Optimal capital structure” involves a trade-off between the
benefits of higher leverage, which include the tax-deductibility
of interest and the lower cost of debt relative to equity, and the
costs of higher leverage, which include higher risk for all capital
providers and the potential costs of financial distress.
• Managers may provide investors with information (“signaling”)
through their choice of financing method. For example, commit-
ments to fixed payments may signal management’s confidence in
the company’s prospects.
• Managers’ capital structure decisions affect various stakeholder
groups differently. In seeking to maximize shareholder wealth or
their own, managers may create conflicts of interest in which one
or more groups are favored at the expense of others, such as a
debt-equity conflict.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• compare top-down, bottom-up, and hybrid approaches for devel-
oping inputs to equity valuation models;
• compare “growth relative to GDP growth” and “market growth
and market share” approaches to forecasting revenue;
• evaluate whether economies of scale are present in an industry
by analyzing operating margins and sales levels;
• demonstrate methods to forecast cost of goods sold and operat-
ing expenses;
• demonstrate methods to forecast nonoperating items, financing
costs, and income taxes;
• describe approaches to balance sheet modeling;
• demonstrate the development of a sales-based pro forma com-
pany model;
Introduction
Financial statement modeling is a key step in the process of valuing
companies and the securities they have issued. We focus on how ana-
lysts use industry information and corporate disclosures to forecast a
company’s future financial results.
An effective financial statement model must be based on a thor-
ough understanding of a company’s business, management, strategy,
external environment, and historical results. Thus, an analyst begins
with a review of the company and its environment—its industry,
key products, strategic position, management, competitors, suppli-
ers, and customers. Using this information, an analyst identifies key
revenue and cost drivers and assesses the likely impact of relevant
trends, such as economic conditions and technological developments.
An analyst’s understanding of the fundamental drivers of the busi-
ness and assessment of future events provide the basis for forecast
model inputs. In other words, financial statement modeling is not
merely a quantitative or accounting exercise, it is the quantitative
expression of an analyst’s expectations for a company and its com-
petitive environment.
We begin our discussion with an overview of developing a rev-
enue forecast. We then describe the general approach to forecasting
each of the financial statements and demonstrate the construction
of a financial statement model, including forecasted revenue, income
statements, balance sheets, and statements of cash flows. Then, we
describe five key behavioral biases that influence the modeling pro-
cess and strategies to mitigate them. We turn to several important
topics on the effects of micro- and macroeconomic conditions on
financial statement models: the impact of competitive factors on
prices and costs, the effects of inflation and deflation, technological
developments, and long-term forecasting considerations. The reading
concludes with a summary.
Most of the examples and exhibits used throughout the reading
can be downloaded as a Microsoft Excel workbook. Each worksheet
in the workbook is labeled with the corresponding example or exhibit
number in the text.
Summary
Industry and company analysis are essential tools of fundamental
analysis. The key points include the following:
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain top-down and bottom-up factors that impact the cost of
capital,
• compare methods used to estimate the cost of debt,
• explain historical and forward-looking approaches to estimating
an equity risk premium,
• compare methods used to estimate the required return on equity,
• estimate the cost of debt or required return on equity for a pub-
lic company and a private company, and
• evaluate a company’s capital structure and cost of capital relative
to peers.
Introduction
A company’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC) represents
the cost of debt and equity capital used by the company to finance
its assets. The cost of debt is the after-tax cost to the issuer of debt,
based on the return that debt investors require to finance a company.
The cost of equity represents the return that equity investors require
to own a company, also referred to as the required rate of return on
equity or the required return on equity.
A company’s WACC is used by the company’s internal decision
makers to evaluate capital investments. For analysts and investors, it
is a critical input used in company valuation. Equation (1) shows how
a company’s WACC is driven by the proportions, or weights (the wi),
of the different capital sources used in its capital structure, applied to
the costs of each source (the ri):
WACC = wdrd(1 – t) + wprp + were, (1)
where d, p, and e denote debt, preferred equity, and common equity,
respectively. These weights are all non-negative and sum to 1.0.
Determining a company’s WACC is an important, albeit chal-
lenging, task for an analyst given the following:
• Many different methods can be used to calculate the costs of
each source of capital; there is no single, “right” method.
• Assumptions are needed regarding long-term target capi-
tal structure, which might or might not be the current capital
structure.
• The company’s marginal tax rate must be estimated and might be
different from its average or effective tax rate.
Estimating the cost of capital for a company thus involves
numerous, sometimes complex, assumptions and choices, all of
which affect the resulting investment conclusion.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain types of corporate restructurings and issuers’ motiva-
tions for pursuing them;
• explain the initial evaluation of a corporate restructuring;
• demonstrate valuation methods for, and interpret valuations of,
companies involved in corporate restructurings;
• demonstrate how corporate restructurings affect an issuer’s
earnings per share (EPS); net debt to earnings before inter-
est, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) ratio; and
weighted average cost of capital;
• evaluate corporate investment actions, including equity invest-
ments, joint ventures, and acquisitions;
• evaluate corporate divestment actions, including sales and spin-
offs; and
• evaluate cost and balance sheet restructurings.
Introduction
Corporate issuers change over time. Although many changes are evo-
lutionary, such as launching new products and expanding capacity,
others involve more revolutionary changes to the legal and account-
ing structure of the issuer. The most well-known among these struc-
tural changes is acquisitions, in which one company buys another.
Other well-known changes include divestitures and spin-offs, in
which an issuer sells or separates a segment of its business. Common
features among these changes are that they tend to attract significant
press and analyst attention and their announcement is associated
with increased securities trading volume.
This reading explains how to evaluate corporate restructurings
from the perspective of an independent investment analyst. The dis-
cussion begins in Section 2 with an overview of corporate restructur-
ings, including putting these events in the context of the corporate
life cycle, and corporate issuers’ motivations for pursuing them.
Sections 3 and 4 feature a three-step process for evaluating corporate
restructurings as an investment analyst. Sections 5–7 demonstrate
the evaluation process with case studies for each major type of cor-
porate restructuring. The reading concludes with a summary and
practice problems.
Summary
• Corporate issuers seek to alter their destiny, as described by the
corporate life cycle, by taking actions known as restructurings.
• Restructurings include investment actions that increase the
size and scope of an issuer’s business, divestment actions that
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe types and categories of alternative investments;
• describe characteristics of direct investment, co-investment, and
fund investment methods for alternative investments; and
• describe investment and compensation structures commonly
used in alternative investments.
Introduction
“Alternative investments” is a label applied to a disparate group of
investments to distinguish them from “traditional investments”—that
Commodities
Agricultural land and Timberland
• Hedge Funds
Summary
The following section provides an overview of the three main catego-
ries and their subcategories.
Private Capital
• Private equity. PE funds generally invest in companies, whether
startups or established firms, that are not listed on a public
exchange, or they invest in public companies with the intent to
take them private. The majority of PE activity, by value, involves
leveraged buyouts of established profitable and cash-generating
companies with solid customer bases, proven products, and
high-quality management.
• Venture capital funds, a specialized form of PE that typically
involves investing in or providing financing to startup or early-
stage companies with high growth potential, represent a small
portion of the PE market by value.
• Private debt. Private debt largely encompasses debt provided to
private entities. Forms of private debt include the following:
■■ direct lending (private loans with no intermediary),
■■ mezzanine loans (private subordinated debt),
Real Assets
• Real estate. Real estate investments are made in buildings or
land, either directly or indirectly. They include private commer-
cial real estate equity (e.g., ownership of an office building) and
private commercial real estate debt (e.g., directly issued loans or
mortgages on commercial property). Securitization has broad-
ened the definition of real estate investing to include public real
estate equity (e.g., real estate investment trusts, or REITs) and
public real estate debt (e.g., mortgage-backed securities).
• Infrastructure. Infrastructure assets are capital-intensive, long-
lived real assets, such as airports, roads, dams, and schools, that
are intended for public use and provide essential services. An
increasingly common approach to infrastructure investing is
a public–private partnership (PPP) approach, in which govern-
ments and private investors each have a stake. Infrastructure
investments provide exposure to asset cash flows, but the asset
generally returns to public authority ownership. Infrastructure
can be thought of as “real estate for the public,” with cash flows
from landing rights and road tolls.
• Natural resources
■■ Commodities. Commodity investments may take place in
physical commodity products, such as grains, metals, and
Hedge Funds
• Hedge funds are private investment vehicles that manage port-
folios of securities or derivative positions using a variety of
strategies. They may involve long and short positions and may
be highly leveraged. Some hedge funds try to deliver investment
performance that is independent of broader market performance.
Although hedge funds may be invested entirely in traditional
assets, these vehicles are considered alternative because of their
specialized approach.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe issues in performance appraisal of alternative invest-
ments, and
• calculate and interpret returns of alternative investments both
before and after fees.
Introduction
Investors frequently look to alternative investments for diversifica-
tion and a chance to earn relatively high returns on a risk-adjusted
basis. Investors also value low correlation and a more risk-neutral
source of alpha.
Summary
• Conducting performance appraisal on alternative investments
can be challenging because these investments are often char-
acterized by asymmetric risk–return profiles, limited portfolio
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• explain investment characteristics of private equity,
• explain investment characteristics of private debt,
• explain investment characteristics of real estate,
• explain investment characteristics of infrastructure,
• explain investment characteristics of natural resources, and
• explain investment characteristics of hedge funds.
Introduction
Private capital is the broad term for funding provided to companies
that is sourced neither from the public markets, such as from the
sale of equities, bonds, and other securities on exchanges, nor from
traditional institutional providers, such as a government or bank.
Capital raised from sources other than public markets and tradi-
tional institutions and in the form of an equity investment is called
private equity (PE). Similarly sourced capital extended to companies
through a loan or other form of debt is referred to as private debt.
Private capital relates to the entire capital structure, including PE and
private debt.
Private capital largely consists of private investment funds and
entities that invest in the equity or debt securities of privately held
companies, real estate, or other assets. Many private investment
firms have PE and private debt arms; however, these teams typically
refrain from investing in the same assets or businesses to avoid over-
exposure to a single investment and to avoid the conflict of interest
that arises from being invested in both the equity and debt of an
issuer. Private investment firms, even those with private debt arms,
typically are referred to as PE firms. Although PE is the largest com-
ponent of private capital, PE as a comprehensive generic category is
inaccurate because other forms of private alternative finance have
grown considerably in size and popularity.
Summary
• Private capital is a broad term used for funding provided to
companies sourced from neither the PE nor public debt markets.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• compare the characteristics, classifications, principal risks, and
basic forms of public and private real estate investments;
• explain portfolio roles and economic value determinants of real
estate investments;
• discuss commercial property types, including their distinctive
investment characteristics;
• explain the due diligence process for both private and public
equity real estate investments; and
• discuss real estate investment indexes, including their construc-
tion and potential biases.
Introduction
Real estate property is an asset class that plays a significant role in
many investment portfolios and is an attractive source of current
income. Investor allocations to public and private real estate have
increased significantly over the last 20 years. Because of the distinct
characteristics of real estate property, real estate investments tend
to behave differently from other asset classes—such as stocks, bonds,
and commodities—and thus have different risks and diversification
benefits. Private real estate investments are further differentiated
because the investments are not publicly traded and require analytic
techniques different from those of publicly traded assets. Because
of the lack of directly comparable transactions, an appraisal pro-
cess is required to value real estate property. Many of the indexes
and benchmarks used for private real estate also rely on appraisals.
Because of this characteristic, they behave differently from indexes
for publicly traded equities, such as the S&P 500, MSCI Europe,
FTSE Asia Pacific, and many other regional and global indexes.
Summary
General Characteristics of Real Estate
• Real estate investments can occur in four basic forms: private
equity (direct ownership), publicly traded equity (indirect own-
ership claim), private debt (direct mortgage lending), and pub-
licly traded debt (securitized mortgages).
• Many motivations exist for investing in real estate income prop-
erty. The key factors are current income, price appreciation,
inflation hedge, diversification, and tax benefits.
these factors. The key risk factors that can affect commercial real
estate include business condition, lead time for new development,
excess supply, cost and availability of capital, unexpected infla-
tion, demographics, lack of liquidity, environmental issues, avail-
ability of information, management expertise, and leverage.
• Location, lease structures, and economic factors—such as eco-
nomic growth, population growth, employment growth, and
consumer spending—affect the value of each property type.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• discuss the income, cost, and sales comparison approaches to
valuing real estate properties;
• compare the direct capitalization and discounted cash flow valu-
ation methods;
• estimate and interpret the inputs (e.g., net operating income,
capitalization rate, and discount rate) to the direct capitalization
and discounted cash flow valuation methods;
• calculate the value of a property using the direct capitalization
and discounted cash flow valuation methods; and
• calculate and interpret financial ratios used to analyze and eval-
uate private real estate investments.
INTRODUCTION
Direct property ownership and investment through private vehicles
has long been the preferred choice of institutional investors, includ-
ing insurance companies, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds,
foundations, endowments, and high-net-worth families and indi-
viduals. Investors consider private real estate for capital gain, income,
tax benefits, and low correlation with other asset classes. Long-term
investors expect to earn an illiquidity premium, as same-property
transactions are relatively rare. Direct property ownership allows
owners to decide where and when to invest and when to sell.
Summary
• Generally, three different valuation approaches are used by
appraisers: income, cost, and sales comparison.
• The income approach includes direct capitalization and dis-
counted cash flow methods. Both methods focus on net operat-
ing income as an input to the value of a property and indirectly
or directly factor in expected growth.
• The cost approach estimates the value of a property based on adjusted
replacement cost. This approach typically is used for unusual proper-
ties for which market comparables are difficult to obtain.
• The sales comparison approach estimates the value of a property
based on what price comparable properties are selling for in the
current market.
• When debt financing is used to purchase a property, additional
ratios and returns calculated and interpreted by debt and equity
investors include the loan-to-value ratio, the debt service coverage
ratio, and leveraged and unleveraged internal rates of return.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• discuss types of publicly traded real estate securities;
• justify the use of net asset value per share (NAVPS) in valuation
of publicly traded real estate securities and estimate NAVPS
based on forecasted cash net operating income;
• describe the use of funds from operations (FFO) and adjusted
funds from operations (AFFO) in real estate investment trust
(REIT) valuation;
• calculate and interpret the value of a REIT share using the net
asset value, relative value (price-to-FFO and price-to-AFFO), and
discounted cash flow approaches; and
• explain advantages and disadvantages of investing in real estate
through publicly traded securities compared to private vehicles.
Introduction
Historically, real estate investing was reserved for the wealthy and
for institutions. REITs were initially conceived of as a way for small
investors to gain exposure to a professionally managed, diversified
real estate portfolio. REITs were viewed as a type of (closed-end)
mutual fund and income passthrough vehicle through which the
portfolio manager would acquire attractively valued properties, occa-
sionally sell fully valued properties, and distribute property earnings
to the trust’s investors. Legislation was passed in the United States in
1960 to authorize REITs, and the Netherlands followed suit in 1969.
The US model and other types of tax-advantaged real estate invest-
ment vehicles have been adopted worldwide. The S&P 500 Index
added REITs as a separate Global Industry Classification Standard
sector in 2016.
REITs are held by individuals and institutions alike. As of
October 2020, more than 35 countries have REITs or REIT-like
structures and more are considering adopting similar vehicles.
Summary
• The principal types of publicly traded real estate securities
include REITs, real estate operating companies (REOCs), and
residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (RMBS
and CMBS).
• Compared with other publicly traded shares, REITs typically
offer higher-than-average yields and greater stability of income
and returns. They are amenable to a net asset value approach to
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe fintech;
• describe Big Data, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learn-
ing (ML);
• describe fintech applications to investment management; and
• describe financial applications of distributed ledger technology.
Introduction
The meeting of finance and technology, commonly known as fintech,
is changing the landscape of investment management. Advancements
include the use of Big Data, AI, and ML to evaluate investment
Summary
• The term “fintech” refers to technological innovation in the
design and delivery of financial services and products.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe the types of investment problems addressed by multiple
linear regression and the regression process;
• formulate a multiple linear regression model, describe the rela-
tion between the dependent variable and several independent
variables, and interpret estimated regression coefficients; and
• explain the assumptions underlying a multiple linear regression
model and interpret residual plots indicating potential violations
of these assumptions.
Introduction
Multiple linear regression uses two or more independent variables
to describe the variation of the dependent variable rather than just
one independent variable, as in simple linear regression. It allows
the analyst to estimate using more complex models with multiple
explanatory variables and, if used correctly, may lead to better pre-
dictions, better portfolio construction, or better understanding of
the drivers of security returns. If used incorrectly, however, multiple
linear regression may yield spurious relationships, lead to poor pre-
dictions, and offer a poor understanding of relationships.
The analyst must first specify the model and make several
decisions in this process. The analyst must answer the following
questions: What is the dependent variable of interest? What inde-
pendent variables are important? What form should the model take?
What is the goal of the model—prediction or understanding of the
relationship?
The analyst specifies the dependent and independent variables
and then employs software to estimate the model and produce
related statistics. The good news is that the software does the esti-
mation (see Exhibit 1). The analyst’s primary tasks are to specify the
model and interpret the output from this software, which are the
main subjects of this content.
Software Programs/Functions
Excel Data Analysis > Regression
Python scipy.stats.linregress
statsmodels.lm
sklearn.linear_model.LinearRegression
Software Programs/Functions
R lm
SAS PROC REG
PROC GLM
STATA regress
Summary
• Multiple linear regression is used to model the linear relation-
ship between one dependent variable and two or more indepen-
dent variables.
• In practice, multiple regressions are used to explain relationships
between financial variables, to test existing theories, or to make
forecasts.
• The regression process covers several decisions the analyst must
make, such as identifying the dependent and independent vari-
ables, selecting the appropriate regression model, testing if the
assumptions behind linear regression are satisfied, examining
goodness of fit, and making needed adjustments.
• A multiple regression model is represented by the following
equation:
Yi = b0 + b1 X1i + b2 X2i + b3 X3i + … + bk Xki + εi, i = 1, 2, 3, …, n,
where Y is the dependent variable, Xs are the independent
variables from 1 to k, and the model is estimated using n
observations.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• evaluate how well a multiple regression model explains the
dependent variable by analyzing analysis of variance (ANOVA)
table results and measures of goodness of fit;
• formulate hypotheses on the significance of two or more coef-
ficients in a multiple regression model and interpret the results
of the joint hypothesis tests; and
• calculate and interpret a predicted value for the dependent vari-
able, given the estimated regression model and assumed values
for the independent variable.
Summary
• In multiple regression, adjusted R2 is used as a measure of model
goodness of fit because it does not automatically increase as
independent variables are added to the model. Rather, it adjusts
for the degrees of freedom by incorporating the number of inde-
pendent variables.
• Adjusted R2 will increase (decrease) if a variable is added to the
model that has a coefficient with an absolute value of its t-statis-
tic greater (less) than 1.0.
• Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz’s Bayesian
information criteria (BIC) also are used to evaluate model fit and
select the “best” model among a group with the same dependent
variable. AIC is preferred if the purpose is prediction, whereas
BIC is preferred if goodness of fit is the goal; lower values of both
measures are better.
• Hypothesis tests of a single coefficient in a multiple regression,
using t-tests, are identical to those in simple regression.
• The joint F-test is used to jointly test a subset of variables in a
multiple regression, where the “restricted” model is based on
a narrower set of independent variables nested in the broader
“unrestricted” model. The null hypothesis is that the slope coef-
ficients of all independent variables outside the restricted model
are zero.
• The general linear F-test is an extension of the joint F-test, where
the null hypothesis is that the slope coefficients on all indepen-
dent variables in the unrestricted model are equal to zero.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe how model misspecification affects the results of
a regression analysis and how to avoid common forms of
misspecification;
• explain the types of heteroskedasticity and how it affects statisti-
cal inference;
• explain serial correlation and how it affects statistical inference;
and
• explain multicollinearity and how it affects regression analysis.
Summary
• Principles for proper regression model specification include
economic reasoning behind variable choices, parsimony, good
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• describe influence analysis and methods of detecting influential
data points;
• formulate and interpret a multiple regression model that includes
qualitative independent variables; and
• formulate and interpret a logistic regression model.
Summary
• Two kinds of observations may potentially influence regression
results: (1) a high leverage point, an observation with an extreme
value of an independent variable; and (2) an outlier, an observa-
tion with an extreme value of the dependent variable.
Learning Outcomes
The member should be able to:
• evaluate practices, policies, and conduct relative to the CFA
Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct;
and
• explain how the practices, policies, and conduct do or do
not violate the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of
Professional Conduct.
Introduction
This reading presents vignettes to illustrate how the CFA Institute
Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct (the Code and
Standards) can be applied in situations requiring professional and
Summary
This reading presents a number of scenarios involving individuals
in private and institutional asset management. The first five cases
focus on identifying whether violations of the Code and Standards
occurred, with discussion and rationale as to why or why not a
violation might have taken place. The last two cases focus on iden-
tifying violations of the Code and Standards, taking necessary cor-
rective actions, and developing a policy statement to prevent future
violations by a firm’s employees. These cases illustrate how applying
the framework might have helped each individual make decisions.