Investor Diary Expert Stock Analysis Excel (V-3) : How To Use This Spreadsheet?
Investor Diary Expert Stock Analysis Excel (V-3) : How To Use This Spreadsheet?
Investor Diary Expert Stock Analysis Excel (V-3) : How To Use This Spreadsheet?
http://www.investordiary.in/
Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/register/
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/excel/ -
and upload this excel file.
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of your
chosen company. Scroll down and come to the first financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View
Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company will be consolidated.
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
company's financial data will be exported in an excel file in the exact format as "Investor Diary Stock Analysis Excel".
Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on Screener.in will be downloaded in this very format.
IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS?
1. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download.
2. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step 2 mentioned
above. But DON'T touch the sheet titled "Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
3. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before working on the sheet.
4. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do that along with working
on this sheet. You may sometime find some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
5. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - [email protected] - and I will try to
fix the same and update the sheet
6. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.
Step-2: Kick out stocks that are out of your circle of competence. Don't worry if you have to kick ou
Step-3: With the remaining stocks, do the complete Stock Analysis by using this excel sheet.
Tip-1: You can Register your Email id with screener.in and can get updates by Email
Tip-2: In the search query, you can customize it as per your requirements, for example I used Market Capitalization > 500 (in
(High Quality Stocks)---List Of Stocks That Passed Our 2-Minute Test In India
Market Capitalization > 500 (in crores), you can feed in, higher or lower figure.
n India
pidilite industries
Hind. Unilever
Hind.Zinc
Infosys
ITC
Maruti Suzuki
Nestle India
TCS
Tech Mahindra
Titan Company
Wipro
Assoc.Alcohols
Control Print
Zensar Tech.
Jenburkt Pharma
Aurabindo Pharma
Balkrishna Ind
CCL Products
Investor Diary Stock Analysis Excel
http://www.investordiary.in/
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company SEPC LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1750
Face Value (Rs) 1
No. of Shares (Crore) 114
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 199552
3 Does the company generate consistent cash flow from operations? YES
9 Share Price
8 How much other is there?(One-time charges, etc) NONE
9 Has the number of shares outstanding increased markedly over the past several years? NO
Assuming no big acquisitions, if shares outstanding are consistently increasing around
by more than 2% per year, think long and hard before investing the firm
click here for the explanation
Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
1613 2,221 1,948 1,011 988 757 717 1,138 923 777
7666 8228 8532 5112 774 2942 3236 2454 4043 1385
8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 5% 5% 7% 5% 3%
4.93 6.51 12.41 5.37 8.08 15.18 22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34
CURRENT P/E RATIO 97.12 3-YR 140.52 5-YR 91.85 10-YR 49.65 Current
NONE
FEW
CONSISTENT
CYCLICAL
5.27
ERRATIC
DEBT-FREE
LOW-DEBT
MODERATELY-LOW DEBT
MODERATE DEBT
MODERATELY-HIGH DEBT
HIGH-DEBT
YES
NO
BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS WITH FLOW-CHART
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
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STEP-1 STEP-2 STEP-3 STEP-4
Borrowings BS
Borrowings CFA
Financial Leverage
Debt to Equity ratio
Equity Share Capital Reserves BS Int. Coverage ratio OTH Liabilities BS
ESC. CFA Reserves CFA T.Assets/T.Liabilities OTH Liabilities CFA
2 minute test T.Debt/T.Assets
T.Debt/T.Equity
Int. coverage ratio
T.Debt/Cash Flow
T.Debt/F.Cash Flow
IT’S AMOST A
NO DILUTION GOOD INCREASED
DEBTFREE COMPANY
AVANTI FEEDS IS A DEBTFREE COMPANY AND IS NOT SELLING ANY ADDITIONAL SHARES. ITS RESERVES ARE INCREASING
ASSETS IS 51%, WHERE AS ITS NET TANGIBLE ASSETS + CWIP (CAPITAL WORK IN PROGRESS) IS ONLY 19%. ITS ACCOU
Net Block BS
CWIP BS
Net Block CFA Invt BS OTH Assets BS A/R BS
CWIP CFA Invt CFA OTH Assets CFA A/R CFA
F.Asset Turnover Cash&Bank CFA A/R DAYS
RESERVES ARE INCREASING CONSISTENTLY. IT'S RUNNING A LOW CAPITAL INTENSIVE BUSINESS, i.e., CASH AS A % OF TOTAL
ESS) IS ONLY 19%. ITS ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE DAYS AND INTENTORY DAYS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE YEARS.
INV BS
INV CFA
INV Turnover
Days in INV
INV DAYS IS 40
Working Capital 12,386 11,296 17,987 13,564 12,540 15,184 9,703 9,590 8,220 5,901
Receivables 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099 14,307 13,147 11,983 13,712
Inventory 3,733 3,924 4,082 1,300 1,652 2,343 2,669 2,562 1,757 6,788
USE COMMON FORM ANALYSIS AND FINANCIAL HEALTH WORKSHEET TO ANALYSE THE BALANCE SHEET
Common Form Balance Sheet
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Equity Share Capital 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 19% 20% 20% 32% 29% 27% 34% 36% 33%
Borrowings 62% 61% 64% 46% 44% 31% 26% 26% 31%
Other Liabilities 19% 19% 16% 22% 27% 42% 39% 37% 35%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 44% 60% 64% 25% 29% 19% 21% 22% 21%
Capital Work in Progress 26% 11% 5% 18% 16% 10% 14% 16% 17%
Investments 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 11%
Other Assets 30% 29% 30% 54% 53% 69% 62% 58% 51%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 8% 9% 12% 24% 27% 21% 34% 28% 23%
Inventory 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3%
Cash & Bank 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4%
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AVG MIN MAX
Mar-21
0% 0% 0% 0%
22% 27% 19% 36%
41% 43% 26% 64%
37% 29% 16% 42%
100% 100% 100% 100%
30% 33% 19% 64%
23% 16% 5% 26%
4% 3% 0% 11%
43% 48% 29% 69%
100% 100% 100% 100%
13% 20% 8% 34%
7% 4% 3% 7%
4% 4% 3% 7%
SEPC LTD GOOD
FINANCIAL HEALTH BAD
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE= 4.56 MORE THAN 4 IS RISKY
DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO= 1.87 LESS THAN 1 IS GOOD
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO= 1.83 HIGHER IS BETTER (atleast greater than 10)
EXPENSES
Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
COST OF MATERIALS CONSUMED 33,931 38,409 42,516 28,196 30,945 30,771 33,821 34,350 29,791 57,651
POWER AND FUEL 18 31 31 8 7 3 6 12 13 59
OTHER MANUFACTURING EXPENSES 3,055 3,625 4,255 1,706 1,910 2,205 2,551 3,115 4,358 8,088
SELLING AND ADMIN 2,233 2,566 3,070 1,358 1,005 928 1,231 1,955 1,306 2,118
CHANGES IN INVENTORY -48 677 -295 -226 -36 773 500 -310 -457 3,934
EMPLOYEE BENEFIT EXPENSES 643 830 1,152 529 511 569 657 683 830 1,182
FINANCE COSTS 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250 1,625 1,572 1,377 2,526
DEPRECIATION 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664 390 472 537 1,248
OTHER EXPENSES 428 780 698 303 215 183 643 683 276 542
GOOD INCOME STATEMENT
Trailing BAD Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
130497 % % % % % % %
SALES 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
COST OF GOODS SOLD 79.69% 77.79% 72.14% 87.28% 89.85% 93.95% 91.33%
GROSS MARGINS 20.31% 22.21% 27.86% 12.72% 10.15% 6.05% 8.67%
SELLING,GENERAL&ADMINISTRATIVE EXP 7.12% 7.60% 7.63% 6.44% 4.74% 4.68% 6.27%
EBITDA MARGINS 16.81% 19.18% 20.54% 8.02% 7.26% 6.68% 6.13%
DEPRECIATION,DEPLETION&AMORTIZATION 4.95% 5.87% 5.46% 0.92% 0.86% 1.85% 0.97%
5,617 OPERATING MARGINS 8.03% 11.21% 13.85% 4.03% 4.34% 3.82% 3.91%
1,103 OTHER INCOME/EXPENSE 3.83% 2.11% 1.23% 3.07% 2.05% 1.01% 1.25%
3066 INTEREST EXPENSE 7.53% 10.38% 10.95% 3.99% 3.44% 3.48% 4.02%
2,551 PBT MARGINS 4.32% 2.94% 4.13% 3.10% 2.95% 1.36% 1.14%
TOTAL TAXES 1.70% -1.88% 0.57% 0.23% 0.74% 0.31% 0.36%
NET MARGINS 3.48% 4.04% 3.02% 2.97% 2.70% 2.11% 1.78%
2,055 EFFECTIVE TAX RATE 39.28% -63.95% 13.72% 7.38% 25.13% 23.03% 31.51%
18
97.1
click here for the explanation
1,750
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
% % %
100% 100% 100% AVG MIN MAX
85.63% 85.25% 100.45% 86.34% 72.14% 100.45%
14.37% 14.75% -0.45% 13.66% -0.45% 27.86%
7.65% 6.10% 5.54% 6.38% 4.68% 7.65%
7.30% 7.59% 6.81% 10.63% 6.13% 20.54%
1.09% 1.36% 1.80% 2.51% 0.86% 5.87%
4.20% 4.98% 3.55% 6.19% 3.55% 13.85%
2.01% 1.25% 1.46% 1.93% 1.01% 3.83%
3.62% 3.48% 3.64% 5.45% 3.44% 10.95%
2.59% 2.75% 1.37% 2.66% 1.14% 4.32%
0.75% 0.86% 0.69% 0.43% -1.88% 1.70%
2.62% 2.33% 1.12% 2.62% 1.12% 4.04%
28.90% 31.28% 50.07% 18.63% -63.95% 50.07%
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Common Form P&L
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 73% 70% 66% 83% 85% 86% 84% 79% 75%
Change in Inventory 0% 1% 0% -1% 0% 2% 1% -1% -1%
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11%
Employee Cost 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3%
Other Expenses 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1%
Operating Profit 13% 15% 20% 6% 5% 1% 2% 7% 9%
Other Income 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Depreciation 5% 6% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Interest 8% 10% 11% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3%
Profit Before Tax 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3%
Tax 2% -2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Net Profit 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GOOD
Mar-21 BAD AVG MIN MAX
100% 100% 100% 100%
83% 78% 66% 86% A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
6% 1% -1% 6% figure. Creating common-size financial statements
0% 0% 0% 0% makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
12% 7% 5% 12% compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
2% 2% 1% 2% raw financial statement may not uncover.
3% 4% 3% 5%
1% 1% 1% 2%
-6% 7% -6% 20%
1% 2% 1% 4%
2% 3% 1% 6%
4% 5% 3% 11%
1% 3% 1% 4%
1% 0% -2% 2%
1% 3% 1% 4%
0% 0% 0% 0%
ancial statement is displays line
age of one selected or common
mmon-size financial statements
nalyze a company over time and
ts peers. Using common-size
helps investors spot trends that a
tatement may not uncover.
SEPC LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Net Fixed Asset Turnover 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.0 3.0 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.4
NET MARGINS 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 10% 7% 8% 4% 4% 6% 6% 10% 12% 14%
Depreciation as % of NFA 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 6% 4% 5% 5% 4%
SELF-SUSTAINABLE GROWTH RATE (SSGR) -1.34% 1.01% 1.66% 2.69% 2.71% 3.75% 2.33%
NFAT
NPM
DPR
DEP
DUPONT-ANALYSIS
YEAR Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
NET MARGIN% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.1%
ASSET TURNOVER 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7
RETURN ON ASSETS% 1.44% 1.88% 1.49% 2.42% 2.07% 1.34% 1.69% 2.43% 1.79% 0.76%
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE 5.23 4.97 5.08 3.12 3.37 3.74 2.88 2.77 3.01 4.56
RETURN ON EQUITY% 7.5% 9.3% 7.6% 7.6% 7.0% 5.0% 4.9% 6.7% 5.4% 3.5%
YEAR Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
CFFO (CASH FLOW STATEMENT) 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39 3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 9356.66 9936.62 -72074.37 3536.69 -4654.49 -906.26 3510.22 2377.02 35251.9
OWNER'S EARNINGS(FCFE) -1128.94 -1405.0 77186.4 -2762.6 7596.9 4142.2 -1056.7 1666.3 -33866.6
FREE CASH FLOW/SALES(%) -2.05% -2.18% 226.96% -7.56% 21.15% 10.26% -2.43% 4.21% -48.78%
MINIMUM 5% IS GOOD
PROFITABILITY MATRIX
ROE<15% AND FREE CASH FLOW>5% ROE>15% AND FREE CASH FLOW>5%
RETURN ON EQUITY % 5.1%
GOOD FREE CASH FLOW BUT BAD ROE GREAT COMPANY
FREE CASH FLOW 5%
ROE<15% AND FREE CASH FLOW<5% ROE>15% AND FREE CASH FLOW<5%
LOW
15%
RETURN ON EQUITY
COMPANY STRATEGY
UNFAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE FAVORABLE
COMPANY GROWTH
MINDSET
LOWEST PAT GROWTH LOWER PAT GROWTH
1. AGGRESSIVE CAPACITY EXPANSION
2. INORGANIC GROWTH STRATEGY
3. OPERATING/FINANCIAL LEVERAGE LOW COMPANY GROWTH MINDSET LOW COMPANY GROWTH MINDSET
AND BUT
LOW INDUSTRY GROWTH HIGH INDUSTRY GROWTH
LOW
LOW INDUSTRY GROWTH HIGH
GROWTH
GROWTH
WEALTH DESTROYER QUALITY TRAP
1. EARNINGS YIELD
EXPENSIVE
☹
EARNINGS YIELD 1.03%
10 YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD 6.68% click here to know govt bond yield
click here for
YIELD SPREAD -5.65%
2. CASH RETURN
☹
CASH RETURN -4.76%
☹
3 YR AVG P/E RATIO 140.5
5 YR AVG P/E RATIO 91.8
10 YR AVG P/E RATIO 49.7
☹
3 YR AVG P/B RATIO 5.8
5 YR AVG P/B RATIO 3.9
10 YR AVG P/B RATIO 2.2
If you don't like using past growth rates, then you can use fundamental growth rates which are more dynamic and forwardin
reinvestment ( i.e., how much money you retain in the business ) and return of equity (i.e., the return you generat
1. SIZE 199552
2. FINANCIAL HEALTH STRONG FINANCIAL HEALTH
3. EARNINGS GROWTH CONSISTENT
4. ECONOMIC MOAT NO MOAT
5. MANAGEMENT HIGH QUALITY MANAGEMENT
6. COMPLEXITY LOW
☹
Terminal Year (15,792)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (72,226)
Terminal Value (61,631)
Total PV of Cash Flows (133,857)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 199,552
Share Price 1750
Value Per Share -1174
growth rates which are more dynamic and forwarding looking. Growth in net profit is the function of
ss ) and return of equity (i.e., the return you generate on incremental retained earnings).
Discounted Dividends 33
Estimated 10th Y
Estimated 10th Year Share P
Estimated 10th Y
Disounted Ea
IDEND INCOME ANALYSIS (MANUAL GROWTH)
EPS DPR Dividends Pr. Value
18.0 -329.91% -59.46
20.7 -329.91% -68.38 -61.06
23.8 -329.91% -78.64 -62.69
27.4 -329.91% -90.44 -64.37
31.5 -329.91% -104.00 -66.10
36.3 -329.91% -119.60 -67.87
41.7 -329.91% -137.54 -69.68
47.9 -329.91% -158.17 -71.55
55.1 -329.91% -181.90 -73.47
63.4 -329.91% -209.19 -75.43
72.9 -329.91% -240.56 -77.45
ome From This Stock In Next The 10 Years -1388 -689.67
☺
9 FY26 (25,978) (9,368) 9
10 FY27 (27,277) (8,782) 10
10 -272,766 (87,823) 10
Intrinsic Value (188,218) Intrinsic Va
Current Mkt. Cap. 199,552 Current Mkt. C
Premium/(Discount) -206% Premium/(Discou
Value Per Share (1,651) Value Per Sh
You have to adjust the initial free cash flows in case if they are negative.
lue Calculation CHEAP EXPENSIVE
vestor by Mohnish Pabrai
WOW, IT'S CHEAP! ☺
SEPC LTD
Dhandho - Best Case
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr)
IT'S EXPENSIVE
Assumed FCF Growth
☹
Excess Cash (Latest) 8,208 Year 1-3 20%
FY18 (13,303) (11,877) Year 4-6 15%
FY19 (15,963) (12,726) Year 7-10 10%
FY20 (19,156) (13,635) Discount Rate 12%
FY21
FY22
(22,029)
(25,334)
(14,000)
(14,375)
click here for the explanation
FY23 (29,134) (14,760)
FY24 (32,047) (14,497)
FY25 (35,252) (14,238)
☺
FY26 (38,777) (13,983)
FY27 (42,655) (13,734)
(639,825) (206,006)
Intrinsic Value (335,623)
Current Mkt. Cap. 199,552
Premium/(Discount) -159%
Value Per Share (2,944)
☹
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 18,201
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 199,552
ATTENTION PLEASE!
Make Sure That Capital Gains Are Atleast
15%
Multi-Bagger Gains %
14%
Intrinsic Value Range UNDER-VALUED
SEPC LTD OVER-VALUED
Market Cap Value Per Share
Lower Higher Lower Higher
Dhandho -188,218 -335,623 (1,651.03) (2,944.06)
DCF -133,857 (1,174.18)
Total Return 18,201 159.65
PE < G Price 6,619 58.06
Current Market Cap. 199,552 share price 1,750.45 W.Avg Intrinsic Value
-1110
TIONS
ught in Phase-1 (10)
ught in Phase-2 (11)
ught in Phase-3 (12)
ares Bought (33)
Total Return
10,000
-124%
(907)
218
SEPC LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Sales 9,126 11,620 13,525 12,579 13,218 18,758 24,866 40,844 38,175 26,612
% Growth YOY 45% 61% 84% 225% 189% 42%
Expenses 8,361 10,848 12,621 11,782 12,335 17,986 23,603 39,102 36,306 24,983
Operating Profit 765 772 904 796 883 772 1,262 1,742 1,869 1,629
Other Income 186 88 -16 152 379 206 276 222 266 339
Depreciation 124 132 156 126 320 354 449 417 531 592
Interest 304 323 436 443 754 708 622 915 934 596
Profit before tax 524 404 296 380 189 -84 468 632 670 780
PBT Margin 6% 3% 2% 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3%
% Growth YOY -64% -121% 58% 67% 255% -1024%
Tax 124 118 86 183 67 14 213 222 231 143
Net profit 362 297 234 271 212 -12 304 469 461 820
% Growth YOY -41% -104% 30% 73% 117% -7151%
OPM 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6%
NEVER PLACE YOUR BUY ORDER WITHOUT GOING THROUGH THIS CHECKLIST
STUDY ITS PRODUCTS/SERVICES CAREFULLY,CHECK WHETHER THEY EXIST IN REAL WORLD AND WHAT
THEY CLAIM ABOUT THEIR PRODUCT/SERVICE IS TRUE OR MAKES SENSE.
IS IT JUST LOW P/E OR LOW VALUATION THAT IS TEMPTING YOU TO INVEST? BUY CHEAP STOCKS, BUT
NOT CHEAP QUALITY STOCKS.
IF YOU FIND ANY RED FLAGS IN YOUR ANALYSIS, NEVER IGNORE, DIG DEEPER.
STAY AWAY FROM COMPANIES WHERE INSIDERS ARE SELLING LARGE STAKES.
READ 10-YEARS OF REVENUE RECOGNITION POLICIES AND WATCH OUT FOR ANY POLICY CHANGES.
BE WARY WITH COMPANIES NOT CONDUCTING CONFERENCE CALLS AND NO CHAIRMANS LETTER IN THE
ANNUAL REPORT.
META
Number of shares 114.00
Face Value 1
Current Price 1750.45
Market Capitalization 199551.5
Quarters
Report Date Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Sales 9126.42 11620.45 13525.07 12578.77 13218.02 18757.87
Expenses 8360.98 10848.48 12621.38 11782.33 12335.43 17986.15
Other Income 185.72 87.93 -15.57 151.86 379.09 205.53
Depreciation 123.59 132.2 156.2 125.63 319.58 353.94
Interest 304.02 323.29 436.37 443.13 753.53 707.68
Profit before tax 523.55 404.41 295.55 379.54 188.57 -84.37
Tax 124.31 117.81 86.42 182.76 66.83 13.79
Net profit 362.37 296.81 233.95 271.46 212.41 -11.63
Operating Profit 765.44 771.97 903.69 796.44 882.59 771.72
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
Reserves 21285.91 23647.21 25617.83 13267.63 14025.99 14979.19
Borrowings 69,331.83 71,979.92 83,570.64 19,169.35 20,845.72 17,636.69
Other Liabilities 21143.3 22364.81 21419.74 9132.42 12629.78 23679.48
Total 111871.02 118101.92 130718.19 41679.38 47611.47 56405.34
Net Block 48770.27 70578.7 83834.04 10473.3 13667.98 10555.19
Capital Work in Progress 29248.44 13573.6 6733.02 7704.94 7731.49 5525.87
Investments 323.04 288.39 744.11 804.95 1041.75 1460.72
Other Assets 33529.27 33661.23 39407.02 22696.19 25170.25 38863.56
Total 111871.02 118101.92 130718.19 41679.38 47611.47 56405.34
Receivables 9002.18 10112.53 15319.15 10187.46 12741.75 12098.77
Inventory 3,733.34 3,924.07 4,081.68 1,299.78 1,651.90 2,342.56
Cash & Bank 7074.24 3721.12 3651.04 1539.5 1715.09 1884.25
No. of Equity Shares 1099810083 1.1E+09 1.1E+09 1.1E+09 1.1E+09 1.1E+09
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Cash from Operating Activity 7666.23 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39
Cash from Investing Activity -14790.09 -8007.37 -11464.74 -1825.17 -1459.77 -7648.85
Cash from Financing Activity 7199.04 -1108.53 3445.23 -3448.05 715.82 5119.57
Net Cash Flow 75.18 -888.18 512.15 -161.21 30.12 413.11
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
1 1 1 1
TESTING:
This is a testing feature currently.
You can report any formula errors on the worksheet at: [email protected]
… do ANYTHING.
dalal-street.in
Warning! Excel can be a wond
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD a deadly weapon if you wish
careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
EP S v s P r i c e
Number of shares 114.00 Fair Value ₹ 2,500.00
Face Value 1.00 ₹ 2,000.00
Current Price 1750.45
Market Capitalization 199551.50 ₹ 1,500.00
EPS 7.06 3 Years Avarage ROE 3.90%
₹ 1,000.00
Price to Earning 285.34 3Years Avarage EPS 8.60
Debt to Equity 1.88 3 Years Avarage PE 45.40 ₹ 500.00
ROE 3.49%
₹ 0.00
ROCE 7.15%
Long-Term Debt (total liability - current liability) 906177 956271 1091885 324370
Debt Level 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reserves Mil 212,859 236,472 256,178 132,676
Borrowings Mil 693,318 719,799 835,706 191,694
Current Liabilities Mil (short term debt) 211,433 223,648 214,197 91,324
-0.70% 8%
0.002 6%
0.000 1%
0.001 2%
Inconsistency measure* Geometric average*
0.074 11193
0.069 10
0.055 1
1.379 -3%
5.869 -3%
0.058 -2%
0.695 -1%
0.005 8%
0.069 10
-1.137 0
0.025 164
0.870 0
0.002 0
0.023 3.78
0.001 2%
0.596 0%
2013
Choose 'none' if you want to get rid of a plot
Choose property (left y-axis) 3Y rolling growth RoE 3Y rolling growth RoE Diluted Dividend
Choose property (left y-axis) Diluted Dividend Per Share
Choose property (right y-axis) None 41000 41500 42000 42500 43000
1.6
Choose property (right y-axis) None
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
20.00 1.2
1
15.00
0.8
10.00 0.6
0.4
5.00
0.2
0.00 0
oE Diluted Dividend Per Share None None
10
3.55
-6.45
Neither self-fund
nor create value Create Value but not self-funding
-11.45
TOTAL CAPITAL = DEBT + EQ+ CASH 98125.00 99746.62 ### 34891.41 37738.53 36070.83
WACC Expectation 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
WACC INTEREST ON TOTAL CAPITAL 14718.75 14961.99 17054.04 5233.71 5660.78 5410.62
ENTERPRISE INCOME -14880.63 -13898.29 -15897.63 -5266.62 -5422.45 -5016.58
EPS 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19 8.98 6.89
Report Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ENTERPRISING EPS -126.37 -144.55 -47.89 -49.30 -45.61
DEFENSIVE EPS -10.26 -12.77 701.82 -25.12 69.08
S.no 2 3 4 5 6 7
Report Date Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
NET PROFIT 1612.98 2220.77 1948.05 1010.72 987.74 757.25
OTHER INCOME 1774.86 1157.07 791.64 1043.63 749.41 363.21
DEPRECIATION 2297.86 3223.07 3521.86 314.45 315.46 663.92
Net Block 48770.27 70578.70 83834.04 10473.30 13667.98 10555.19
Capital Work in Progress 29248.44 13573.60 6733.02 7704.94 7731.49 5525.87
Cash from Operating Activity 7666.23 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39
Equity Share Capital 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
Reserves 21285.91 23647.21 25617.83 13267.63 14025.99 14979.19
Borrowings 69331.83 71979.92 83570.64 19169.35 20845.72 17636.69
Investments 323.04 288.39 744.11 804.95 1041.75 1460.72
Cash & Bank 7074.24 3721.12 3651.04 1539.50 1715.09 1884.25
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
Create Value EPS DEFENSIVE EPS ENTER
& Self-fund 800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-200.00
-400.00
ES LTD
14785.03 17823.19 19663.07 53667.19
-906.26 3510.22 2377.02 35251.90
3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28
4142.18 -1056.66 1666.29 -33866.62
8 9 10 11
Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
717.14 1138.17 922.64 776.56
504.22 872.32 494.31 1012.11
389.77 472.06 537.14 1247.78
9020.11 10476.46 10837.61 30122.77
5764.92 7346.73 8825.46 23544.42
3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28
109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
14645.96 16836.59 17048.59 22146.53
11243.20 12419.30 16227.06 41604.03
1511.35 1952.49 5502.94 4292.21
1709.28 3376.68 1810.82 3915.86
109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
EPS DEFENSIVE EPS ENTERPRISING EPS
Working Capital/avg total assets 0.11 0.10 0.14 0.33 0.26 0.27
Retained earnings/avg total assets 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
EBIT/avg total assets 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.04 0.04 0.04
Market Cap/Total liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Net Sales/avg total assets 0.41 0.47 0.49 0.82 0.77 0.64
Altman Z-score (1968 formula) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Altman Z-score for emerging markets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Altman Z-score for non-manufacturing industries #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
(Banks, airlines etc)
0.35 0.12
0.30 0.10
0.25
0.08
0.20
Retained earnings/avg total
assets 0.06
0.15 Working Capital/avg total
assets
0.04
0.10
0.02
0.05
0.00 0.00
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21 Apr/12 Dec
0.02
0.05
0.00 0.00
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21 Apr/12 Dec
a measure of how close a firm is to bankruptcy
Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
97028 95902 82196 59011
0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7
403787 434026 395371 694202
425362 468751 516167 ###
424262 467651 515067 ###
403787 434026 395371 694202
1100 1100 1100 1100
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! Note stock price data is for #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
19693 22943.9 25057 37136
7171.4 11381.7 9226.4 7765.6
0.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 * Same units and denomination as Revenue
6732 10282 8127 6666 retained earnings from the previous year are not taken into account
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! >3 Safe from bankruptcy; Less than 3 but > 1.8 = Grey zone; Less than 1.8 = dis
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! >2.6 Safe from bankruptcy; Less than 2.6 but > 1.1 = Grey zone; Less than 1.1 =
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! >2.6 Safe from bankruptcy; Less than 2.6 but > 1.1 = Grey zone; Less than 1.1 =
0.12 1.00
0.90
0.10
0.80
0.70
0.08
0.60
EBIT/avg total assets
0.06 0.50
Market Cap/Total liabilities
0.40 Net Sales/avg total assets
0.04
0.30
0.20
0.02
0.10
0.00 0.00
Apr/12 Dec/14 Sep/17 Jun/20 Mar/23
0.02
0.10
0.00 0.00
Apr/12 Dec/14 Sep/17 Jun/20 Mar/23
ne; Less than 1.8 = distress
Tax burden 80% 138% 73% 96% 92% 156% 156% 101%
Interest burden 33% 17% 21% 63% 57% 24% 23% 49%
Operating Margin 13.0% 17.1% 19.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.3%
Asset Turnover (Average) 0.41 0.47 0.49 0.82 0.77 0.64 0.95 0.93
Financial Leverage 5.23 4.97 5.08 3.12 3.37 3.74 2.88 2.77
5% 3% 0
5.4% 3.5% Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Jan/22 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Jan/22 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
5.0%
0.0%
Jan/22 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
come INR Mil (EBIT)
Jan/21 Jan/22
Jan/21 Jan/22
Jan/21 Jan/22
Data as on March of year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Income INR Mil 16,130 22,208 19,481 10,107 9,877
Total assets INR Mil ### ### ### 416,794 476,115
Return on assets 1.4% 1.9% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1%
Operating Cash Flow INR Mil 76662.3 82277.2 85316.6 51120.1 7740.7
Operating Cash Flow/ Total Assets* 6.85% 7.22% 0.59% 7.76% 8.49%
* Cash flow return on assests
Long-Term Debt (total liability - current liability) 906177.4 956271.3 1091885 324369.8 348717.1
Long-term Debt/ Total Assets 81% 81% 84% 78% 73%
Current Ratio 1.586 1.505 1.840 2.485 1.993
Gross Margin % 19% 22% 26% 10% 9%
Shares outstanding Mil 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100
Asset Turnover 0.4145407 0.465253 0.493163 0.815952 0.767312
Piotroski Score for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD 8/9 6/9 8/9 5/9
1.00
1.00 0.89 0.67 0.89 0.56
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Graham Number
The Graham number or Benjamin Graham number is a figure us
Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_number
Data derived from Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Data as on March of year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Diluted Earnings Per Share* 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19 8.98
Current market price for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD 1750.45 Ensure market price and financials are for the same stock!!
Graham Number Stock is Margin of safety
Using 3Y average of Diluted EPS 197.88 Overvalued -785%
Using 5Y average of Diluted EPS 188.95 Overvalued -826%
Using 10Y average of Diluted EPS 223.75 Overvalued -682%
Reference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_number
Current price should not be more than 1½ times the book value las
However a multiplier of earnings below 15 could justify a correspondingl
As a rule of thumb we suggest that the product of the multiplier times th
(This figure corresponds to 15 times earnings and 1½ times book value. I
Graham Formula
The Benjamin Graham formula is an intrinsic value formula proposed by
Published in his book, The Intelligent Investor, Graham devised the form
As with any valuation formula, the final number is not designed to give a
Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham_formula
Use the above data to enter the projected EPS growth rate for the next 5 years 7.00
EPS lasy FY 7.06
No-growth PE of a company 7 PE ratio of a company with 0% growth.
This guy (OSV) uses 7.http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/v
I don’t know what applies to Indian Stocks.
This VR article says 7 is fine: https://www.valueresearcho
Multiplier to be used for the EPS growth rate 1 Ben Grram used 2. That is 2 x 700%
OSV uses 1.5
VR articles uses 1
High Grade corporae bond yield 8.00% Ben Graham used 4.4% in 1974!
VR article suggests setting to FD rate as a risk-free return
Current yield on long-term corporate bonds 8.50% I am still searching for a reliable source of this. If not known, s
Graham Number
ham number is a figure used in securities investing that measures a stock's so-called fair value
aham_number
ERPRISES LTD
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10Y Average Last 5Y average
6.89 6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06 10.99 7.84
vestor, chapter 14
Graham Formula
c value formula proposed by investor and professor, Benjamin Graham, often referred to as the "father of value investing".
or, Graham devised the formula for investors to be able to quickly determine how rationally priced their stocks were.
mber is not designed to give a true value of a stock, but only to approximate its range of possible values
njamin_Graham_formula
percentage
source of this. If not known, set it a bit above the risk-free rate
Last 3Y average
8.60
Current price 1,750.45 Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Average annual Diluted EPS Growth over last 10Y -3%
Standard Deviation 32% If the standard deviation is as high than the average, the
Expected conservative EPS growth 15%
Forward PE* 40
PE each fi
Current EPS (last FY) 7.06 300
Current Dividend per share (last FY) 1.00
Expected conservative rate of return 15% 250
200
* Either take a 'guess' from the graph or you can get the forward PE estimtae from
morning star page for the stock 150
100
50
0
Apr/12 Aug/13 Dec/14 May/16
250
200
150
100
50
0
Apr/12 Aug/13 Dec/14 May/16 Sep/17 Feb/19 Jun/20 Oct/21 Mar/23
Year Price Max Price Min Shares Mil Earnings Per Share INR
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 14.67
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 20.19
2007 #REF! #REF! 1100 17.71
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 9.19
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 8.98
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 6.89
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 6.52
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 10.35
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 8.39
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 7.06
Average
Average Sustainable Growth rate 6%
CAGR 3Y 0% 3%
CAGR 5Y 0% -5%
CAGR 7Y 0% -12%
CAGR 9Y 0% -7%
Valuation with TTM EPS and DPS and their past CAGR's
CAGR that will be use to project growth rates
Select CAGR to be used CAGR 3Y 3%
Average Earnings Per Share INR
Last FY 14.67
1Y from now 15.06
2Y from now 15.47
3Y from now 15.88
4Y from now 16.31
5Y from now 16.75
6Y from now 17.20
7Y from now 17.66
8Y from now 18.13
9Y from now 18.62
10Y from now 19.12
To find the actual return on investment based on parameters that influence sustainable growth, go to valuation-3
Source: http://www.aaii.com/computerized-investing/article/valuing-stocks-the-warren-buffett-way.touch
Diluted Dividen Book Value Per Share INR PE high PE low ROE% Payout Ratio% Revenue INR Mil (S
1.40 194.54 8% 10% 463750.9
1.40 216.01 9% 7% 549472.2
1.40 233.93 8% 8% 644653.6
0.40 121.64 8% 4% 340083.8
0.40 128.53 7% 4% 365328.6
0.40 137.20 5% 6% 359239.2
0.40 134.17 5% 6% 403786.6
1.00 154.09 7% 10% 434025.6
1.00 156.02 5% 12% 395371.3
1.00 202.37 3% 14% 694201.8
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6% 8%
owth, go to valuation-3
n-buffett-way.touch
Net Income INR Mil Equity Share Capital Mil Growth Rate
16129.8 1099.8
22207.7 1099.8
19480.5 1099.8
10107.2 1099.8
9877.4 1099.8
7572.5 1099.8
7171.4 1099.8
11381.7 1099.8
9226.4 1099.8
7765.6 1099.8
Return on investment based on book value growth rate Source:
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08
Source:
Long-term Bond yield 7.98% http://www.investing.com/rates-bon
ww.investing.com/rates-bonds/india-10-year-bond-yield-historical-data
Median PE
#VALUE!
Median PE
-1,750.45 negative sign signifies investment (necessary for IRR calcualtion)
1.03 These are the
1.07 dividends which
1.12 are assumed to be
1.16 received and not
1.21 reinvested. Such as
1.26 assumption is incorrect,
1.31 but should suffice for
1.36 estimation purposes
1.42
#VALUE!
#VALUE! Since entries are spaced an year apart, IRR = XIRR
Valuation using the Discounted Cash Flow Model Source:
Discounted Cash Flow projections (choose FCF growth rate in green cells) DCF projections beyond 10Y may no
Year FCF Growth Rate Free Cash Flow Present Value
1 5% 85 76
2 5% 89 71
3 5% 94 67
4 5% 98 63
5 5% 103 59
6 5% 109 55 Terminal year for 5Y projectio
7 5% 114 52
8 5% 120 48
9 5% 126 45
10 5% 132 42
11 5% 139 40 Terminal year for 10Y projectio
12 5% 145 37
13 5% 153 35
14 5% 160 33
15 5% 168 31
16 5% 177 29 Terminal year for 15Y projectio
17 5% 186 27
18 5% 195 25
19 5% 205 24
20 5% 215 22
Terminal year for 20Y projectio
http://www.focusinvestor.com/index.php/articles.html
http://www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/
#N/A
After 5Y, 10Y, 15Y or 20Y, if we assume the growth will saturate,
the growth rate at this point is the terminal growth rate
0.51
0.60
0.73
Valuation using the Reverse Discounted Cash Flow Model
Discounted Cash Flow projections (choose FCF growth rate in green cells)
Year FCF Growth Rate Free Cash Flow
1 127.28% 260
2 127.28% 590
3 127.28% 1341
4 127.28% 3049
5 127.28% 6929
What is the rate at which you would like to discount future cash flow to present values?
Technically this should be equal to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
This is (according to wikipedia), the minimum return that a company must earn
on an existing asset base to satisfy its creditors, owners, and other providers of
capital, or they will invest elsewhere. The WACC is difficult to compute.
So you will need to guess the discount rate conservatively
Margin of Safety 25%
n cells)
Present Value
232
470
955
1938
3932
12%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Trailing
Sales 46,375 54,947 64,465 34,008 36,533 35,924 40,379 43,403 39,537 69,420 ###
% Growth YOY 18% 17% -47% 7% -2% 12% 7% -9% 76%
Expenses 40,354 45,564 52,015 32,325 34,631 33,886 38,409 41,108 37,031 65,707 ###
Material Cost (% of Sales) 73% 70% 66% 83% 85% 86% 84% 79% 75% 83% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11% 12% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3%
Operating Profit 6,021 9,383 12,450 1,684 1,902 2,038 1,969 2,294 2,506 3,714 6,503
Operating Profit Margin 13% 17% 19% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Other Income 1,775 1,157 792 1,044 749 363 504 872 494 1,012 1,103
Other Income as % of Sales 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 3.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.2% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Depreciation 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664 390 472 537 1,248 1,989
Interest 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250 1,625 1,572 1,377 2,526 3,066
Interest Coverage(Times) 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2
Profit before tax (PBT) 2,005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487 459 1,122 1,086 952 2,551
% Growth YOY -20% 65% -60% 2% -55% -6% 145% -3% -12%
PBT Margin 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2%
Tax 788 -1,032 365 78 271 112 145 324 340 477 809
Net profit 1,218 2,646 2,298 978 808 375 314 798 746 475 1,741
% Growth YOY 117% -13% -57% -17% -54% -16% 154% -6% -36%
Net Profit Margin 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
EPS 11.1 24.1 20.9 8.9 7.3 3.4 2.9 7.3 6.8 4.3 15.3
% Growth YOY 117% -13% -57% -17% -54% -16% 154% -6% -36%
Price to earning 6.5 5.5 10.5 5.5 9.9 30.7 51.4 19.0 152.0 466.1 114.6
Price 72 131 220 49 73 105 147 138 1,031 2,015 1,750
Dividend Payout 9.5% 6.9% 7.9% 4.4% 4.5% 5.8% 6.1% 9.7% 11.9% 14.2%
Market Cap 7,945 14,461 24,180 5,423 7,977 11,493 16,140 15,133 ### ###
Retained Earnings 1,101 2,462 2,116 935 772 353 295 721 657 408
Buffett's $1 Test 21.8
Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Sales 9,126 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YOY 45% 61% 84% 225% 189% 42%
Expenses 8,361 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Operating Profit 765 772 904 796 883 772 1,262 1,742 1,869 1,629
Other Income 186 88 -16 152 379 206 276 222 266 339
Depreciation 124 132 156 126 320 354 449 417 531 592
Interest 304 323 436 443 754 708 622 915 934 596
Profit before tax 524 404 296 380 189 -84 468 632 670 780
PBT Margin 6% 3% 2% 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3%
% Growth YOY -64% -121% 58% 67% 255% ###
Tax 124 118 86 183 67 14 213 222 231 143
Net profit 362 297 234 271 212 -12 304 469 461 820
% Growth YOY -41% -104% 30% 73% 117% ###
OPM 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6%
Excel Sheet Made by Amol
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
(all figures in Rs crores) BALANCE SHEET COMMON SIZE BALANCE SHEET
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Equity Share Capital 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 21,286 23,647 25,618 13,268 14,026 14,979 14,646 16,837 17,049 22,147 19% 20% 20% 32% 29% 27% 34% 36% 33% 22%
Borrowings 69,332 71,980 83,571 19,169 20,846 17,637 11,243 12,419 16,227 41,604 62% 61% 64% 46% 44% 31% 26% 26% 31% 41%
Trade Payables (Manually copy from Screener.in) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Liabilities 21,143 22,365 21,420 9,132 12,630 23,679 16,537 17,509 18,231 37,726 19% 19% 16% 22% 27% 42% 39% 37% 35% 37%
TOTAL LIABILITIES 111,871 118,102 130,718 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 101,586 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 48,770 70,579 83,834 10,473 13,668 10,555 9,020 10,476 10,838 30,123 44% 60% 64% 25% 29% 19% 21% 22% 21% 30%
Capital Work in Progress 29,248 13,574 6,733 7,705 7,731 5,526 5,765 7,347 8,825 23,544 26% 11% 5% 18% 16% 10% 14% 16% 17% 23%
Cash & Bank 7,074 3,721 3,651 1,540 1,715 1,884 1,709 3,377 1,811 3,916 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4% 4%
Investments 323 288 744 805 1,042 1,461 1,511 1,952 5,503 4,292 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 11% 4%
Inventory 3,733 3,924 4,082 1,300 1,652 2,343 2,669 2,562 1,757 6,788 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3% 7%
Receivables 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099 14,307 13,147 11,983 13,712 8% 9% 12% 24% 27% 21% 34% 28% 23% 13%
Loans & Advances (Manually copy from Screener.in) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 13,720 15,904 16,355 9,669 9,062 22,538 7,555 8,014 10,900 19,211 12% 13% 13% 23% 19% 40% 18% 17% 21% 19%
TOTAL ASSETS 111,871 118,102 130,718 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 101,586 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Invested Capital from the Liability Side of Balance Sheet = (Book Value of Equity + Book Value of Debt - Cash)
Invested Capital 83,653 92,016 105,647 31,007 33,267 30,842 24,290 25,989 31,575 59,945
Average Invested Capital 87,835 98,832 68,327 32,137 32,054 27,566 25,140 28,782 45,760
Median Min Max
ROIC (EBIAT / Average Invested Capital) 11% 8% 2% 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 2% 11%
with DuPont breakup
EBIAT/Sales 18% 12% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 18%
Sales/Av Invested Capital 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.5 1.7
Fixed Asset 78,019 84,152 90,567 18,178 21,399 16,081 14,785 17,823 19,663 53,667
Average Fixed Assets 81,086 87,360 54,373 19,789 18,740 15,433 16,304 18,743 36,665
Av Fixed Assets/Sales 148% 136% 160% 54% 52% 38% 38% 47% 53% 53% 38% 160%
Av Fixed Asset Turnover 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 0.6 2.7
Average Invested Capital from the Asset Side of Balance Sheet = Average Net Block & CWIP + Average Net Working Capital
Average Invested Capital 94,472 104,078 69,817 32,729 33,158 31,142 32,646 33,467 53,785
Av Fixed Asset Turnover 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.9
Av Working Capital Turnover 4.1 3.9 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 4.1
Average Inventory Days 25 23 29 15 20 23 22 20 22 Note: Inventory Days and Payable Days are calculated using Sales & not COGS
Average Receivable Days 63 72 137 115 126 119 115 116 68
Average Payable Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Average Working Capital Cycle Days 89 95 166 129 146 142 137 136 90
Median Min Max Chart of ROIC Pre-Tax
ROIC Pre-Tax 7% 9% 2% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 2% 9%
Effective Tax Rate -64% 14% 7% 25% 23% 32% 29% 31% 50%
ROIC 11% 7% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 4% 2% 11%
NOTES:
1) The formula used for breaking up ROIC into its components is given in the adjacent image
2) To correctly calculate ROIC you need to several adjustments such as Identifying operating assets,
Capitalizing Operating & Financial Expenses, removing one-time & extra-ordinary items, adjusting taxes, etc
These adjustments are ESSENTIAL to get a correct measurement of ROIC or any other return such as ROE, ROA,
ROCE, etc. However, to do the same we need more granular level data from the Annual Report
HENCE, ROIC calculated without adjustments are ROUGH ESTIMATES of the actual return
Balance Sheet
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Equity Share Capital 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
Reserves 21,286 23,647 25,618 13,268 14,026 14,979 14,646 16,837 17,049 22,147
Borrowings 69,332 71,980 83,571 19,169 20,846 17,637 11,243 12,419 16,227 41,604
Other Liabilities 21,143 22,365 21,420 9,132 12,630 23,679 16,537 17,509 18,231 37,726
Total ### ### ### 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 ###
Net Block 48,770 70,579 83,834 10,473 13,668 10,555 9,020 10,476 10,838 30,123
Capital Work in Progress 29,248 13,574 6,733 7,705 7,731 5,526 5,765 7,347 8,825 23,544
Investments 323 288 744 805 1,042 1,461 1,511 1,952 5,503 4,292
Other Assets 33,529 33,661 39,407 22,696 25,170 38,864 26,240 27,099 26,451 43,627
Total ### ### ### 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 ###
Working Capital 12,386 11,296 17,987 13,564 12,540 15,184 9,703 9,590 8,220 5,901
Debtors 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099 14,307 13,147 11,983 13,712
Inventory 3,733 3,924 4,082 1,300 1,652 2,343 2,669 2,562 1,757 6,788
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports
DELTA DELTA
NETWORTH MKTCAP IMPACT*
10 YR 861 213637 248.24
7 YR 8879 216159 24.35
5 YR 7167 210089 29.31
3 YR 5310 206449 38.88
1 YR 5098 108176 21.22
* IMPACT – Every Rupee retained added xx.yy in incremental market value
back what is really driving RoA (Net Margins or Asset Turns, or both)
back what is really driving RoE (Net Margins, Asset Turns, or Financial Leverage)
back what is really driving RoIC (Op Margins or Capital Turns, or both)
10 YEARS NUMBERS
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Sales 46,375 54,947 64,465 34,008 36,533 35,924
Receivables 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099
% Sales 19% 18% 24% 30% 35% 34%
EBITDA 8,319 12,606 15,972 1,998 2,218 2,702
EBITDA % 18% 23% 25% 6% 6% 8%
Other Income 1,775 1,157 792 1,044 749 363
Depreciation 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664
Interest 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250
Profit before tax 2,005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487
Tax% 39% -64% 14% 7% 25% 23%
Tax 788 -1,032 365 78 271 112
Net Profit after Tax 1,613 2,221 1,948 1,011 988 757
NPM% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Cash from Operations 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942
Capex(NFA+WIP Change+Dep) 9,357 9,937 -72,074 3,537 -4,654
3% 6% 3% -2%
12% 7% -9% 76%Req. Funds ?
YES YES NO YES No
6% 7% 6% 3%
Price/Earnings 256.97
Cash Adjusted P/E ratio 246.40
Price/Book Value 8.97
Dividend Yield 0.1%
Earnings Growth -15.8%
Inverse PEG 0.00
Growth Nos:
3 Year Sales CAGR 20%
3 Years Profit CAGR 3%
1 Year Sales Growth 76%
1 Year EBIT Growth 63%
1 Year Profit Growth -16%
RM/ Sales 83%
5 yr Avg RM/Sales 81%
Inventory/Sales 10%
5 yr Avg Inventory/Sales 12%
Debt:Equity 1.87
Networth 22,256.51
Long Term Debt 41,604.03
Cash & Bank Balance 3,915.86
Investments 4,292.21
Management Effectiveness:
Book Value 195.23
ROE 3%
ROCE 3%
Shares ( in Cr) 114.00
Margins:
Operating 7.1%
Net Profit 1.1%
Latest Earnings:
Net Profit (TTM) 1,223.09
Q1
-11.63
Q2 304.32
Q3 469.46
Q4 460.94
Last 5 Years: RM
2014 30,771.08
2015 33,821.40
2016 34,350.20
2017 29,791.08
2018 57,651.32
Last 5 Years: Op CF
2014 2,942.39
2015 3,235.92
2016 2,453.56
2017 4,043.31
2018 1,385.28
Debt: Equity
Debt FY2017 16,227.06
Debt FY2018 41,604.03
Equity FY2017 17,158.57
Equity FY2018 22,256.51
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
500 -40%
0 -60% 1099.81
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 -80% Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan
1099.81 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22
-200.00
22.93%
18.95%
17.90%
25.00 1,000.00
4.58%
0.63%
20.00 800.00
15.00 600.00 1 0 YR C AGR 5 YR C
-0.62%
-3.67%
-3.58%
-4.96%
-7.80%
10.00 400.00
5.00 200.00
0.00 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22
-200.00
25.00 1,000.00
18.95
17.90
4
22.9
4.58%
0.63%
20.00 800.00
15.00 600.00 1 0 YR C AGR 5 YR C
-0.62%
-3.67%
-3.58%
-4.96%
-7.80%
10.00 400.00
5.00 200.00
0.00 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22
-200.00
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Growth (x)
35,924 40,379 43,403 39,537 69,420 1.90 Shareholder funds
757 717 1,138 923 777 0.79 30000
5% 5% 7% 5% 3% 0.50 25000
15.18 22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34 35.33 20000
0.76 1.09 0.89 6.61 9.96 17.64 15000
11,493 16,140 15,133 113,406 221,582 27.78 10000
5000
40000
20000
0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
Inventory Days
40
35
30
25
20
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 15
10
Receivable days (Lower is better) Working Capital Cycle 5
0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
GROWTH IN LAST 10 YEARS
Debtor Days
SALES GROSS PROFIT EBIT PAT
282.65%
80
60
40
20
0
109.54%
95.39%
75.58%
Receivable days
44.75%
41.22%
26.47%
25.74%
22.93%
22.35%
20.76%
140.00
18.95%
17.90%
14.02%
13.61%
120.00
0.63%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00
CAGR 5 YR C AG R 3 YR C AG R 1 YR G R OW TH 80.00
-3.67%
-3.58%
60.00
-15.83%
-17.40%
40.00
20.00
0.00
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
140.00
20.76
41
18.95
26.4
17.90
25.7
4
22.9
14.02
22.3
13.61
120.00
0.63%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00
CAGR 5 YR C AG R 3 YR C AG R 1 YR G R OW TH 80.00
-3.67%
-3.58%
60.00
-15.83%
-17.40%
40.00
20.00
0.00
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
Shareholder funds Cash from Operating Activ- RoIC
ity 14%
10,000 12%
8,000 10%
8%
6,000
6%
4,000 4%
2,000 2%
- 0%
Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
60000
40000
20000
0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 J
C
7 Jan-19 Jan-21
set Turn*Fin
= RoE
17 Jan-19 Jan-21
PAT/Sales
17 Jan-19 Jan-21
urns
7 Jan-19 Jan-21
bt/Equity)
7 Jan-19 Jan-21
7 Jan-19 Jan-21
80,000
Revenue Revenue and P
200%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a r
70,000 pare growth
150%
60,000
50,000 100%
40,000 50%
30,000
0%
20,000 Jan/14 Jan/16
10,000 -50%
- -100%
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21
Revenue Gro
Net Profit Gr
Management Effectiveness
Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
ROE 6% 11% 9% 7% 6% 2% 2% 5% 4%
ROCE 6% 8% 9% 7% 7% 5% 8% 9% 7%
Cash Flows
Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Operating Cash Flow 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942 3,236 2,454 4,043
Free Cash Flow 7,351 8,016 8,168 4,547 167 2,005 2,080 816 2,805
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year
ROE ROCE
Mar/22
2%
5%
Mar/22
69,420
952
475
Mar/22
1,385
561
Annual
Growth% 18% 17% -47% 7%
Exp as Sales% 87% 83% 81% 95% 95%
OPM % 13.0% 17.1% 19.3% 5.0% 5.2%
Tax % 39% -64% 14% 7% 25%
NPM % 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Quarterly
QoQ Sales 27% 16% -7% 5%
Tax % 29% 29% 48% 35%
Quarterly Contribution 29% 34% 32% 33%
Narration Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
Sales 9,126.42 11,620.45 13,525.07 12,578.77 13,218.02
Expenses 8,360.98 10,848.48 12,621.38 11,782.33 12,335.43
Operating Profit 765.44 771.97 903.69 796.44 882.59
Other Income 185.72 87.93 -15.57 151.86 379.09
Depreciation 123.59 132.20 156.20 125.63 319.58
Interest 304.02 323.29 436.37 443.13 753.53
Profit before tax 523.55 404.41 295.55 379.54 188.57
Tax 124.31 117.81 86.42 182.76 66.83
Net profit 362.37 296.81 233.95 271.46 212.41
0 0 0 0 0
OPM 8% 7% 7% 6% 7%
-2% 12% 7% -9% 76% 15% 15%
94% 95% 95% 94% 95% 89% 89%
5.7% 4.9% 5.3% 6.3% 5.3% 11.0% 11.2%
23% 32% 29% 31% 50% 35% 35%
2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 5% 5%
Nosh 114.00
QoQ
-30%
-31%
-13%
27%
11%
-36%
16%
-38%
78%
25%
Excel Sheet Made by Amol
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD All figures in Rs crores
PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 TTM COMMON SIZE P&L STATEMENT
y-o-y Sales Growth % 18% 17% -47% 7% -2% 12% 7% -9% 76% 88% Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 TTM
Sales 46,375 54,947 64,465 34,008 36,533 35,924 40,379 43,403 39,537 69,420 130,497
Raw Material Cost 33,979 37,732 42,811 28,422 30,982 29,998 33,321 34,660 30,248 53,718 - 73% 69% 66% 84% 85% 84% 83% 80% 77% 77%
Power and Fuel 18 31 31 8 7 3 6 12 13 59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 3,055 3,625 4,255 1,706 1,910 2,205 2,551 3,115 4,358 8,088 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11% 12%
Gross Profit 9,324 13,559 17,369 3,873 3,634 3,718 4,500 5,615 4,918 7,556 Gross Margin 20% 25% 27% 11% 10% 10% 11% 13% 12% 11%
Employee Cost 643 830 1,152 529 511 569 657 683 830 1,182 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Selling and admin 2,233 2,566 3,070 1,358 1,005 928 1,231 1,955 1,306 2,118 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3%
Other Expenses 428 780 698 303 215 183 643 683 276 542 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% Chart of Op.EBIT Margin
Depreciation 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664 390 472 537 1,248 1,989 5% 6% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Operating Profit (Op. EBIT) 3,723 6,160 8,928 1,369 1,587 1,374 1,580 1,822 1,969 2,466 4,514 Op.EBIT Margin 8% 11% 14% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3%
Other Income 1,775 1,157 792 1,044 749 363 504 872 494 1,012 1,103 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Interest 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250 1,625 1,572 1,377 2,526 3,066 8% 10% 11% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4%
Profit before tax 2,005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487 459 1,122 1,086 952 2,551 Chart of PAT Margin
Tax 788 -1,032 365 78 271 112 145 324 340 477 809
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 1,218 2,646 2,298 978 808 375 314 798 746 475 1,741 PAT Margin 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Effective Income Tax Rate 39% -64% 14% 7% 25% 23% 32% 29% 31% 50%
Marginal Income Tax Rate 33.99% 33.99% 34.61% 34.61% 34.61% 35.00% 30.00% 25.17% 25.17% #N/A
MARGINAL INCOME TAX DATA
GROWTH ANALYSIS Source KPMG for the years from 2011 until 2019
SALES Op. EBIT PAT from FY20 onwards, it is assumed that domestic companies will take advantage of Section 115BAA
9 Year CAGR 5% -4% -10% Mar-11 32.44%
7 Year CAGR 1% -17% -20% Mar-12 32.45%
5 Year CAGR 14% 9% -10% Mar-13 33.99%
3 Year CAGR 20% 16% 15% Mar-14 33.99%
TTM CAGR 88% 83% 266% Mar-15 34.61%
Mar-16 34.61%
Mar-17 34.61%
DEBT & SOLVENCY RATIOS Mar-18 35.00%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-19 30.00%
Debt 69,332 71,980 83,571 19,169 20,846 17,637 11,243 12,419 16,227 41,604 Mar-20 25.17%
Equity 21,396 23,757 25,728 13,378 14,136 15,089 14,756 16,947 17,159 22,257 Mar-21 25.17%
- Interest -5,703 -7,056 -1,357 -1,257 -1,250 -1,625 -1,572 -1,377 -2,526
+ Tax Benefit from Interest (Int x Tax) 1,938 2,442 470 435 438 488 396 347 #N/A
- Debt Repayment - - -64,401 - -3,209 -6,393 - - -
+ New Debt 2,648 11,591 - 1,676 - - 1,176 3,808 25,377
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY (FCFE) -4,184 3,129 11,428 -2,344 3,138 -3,876 -1,453 4,097 #N/A
Total CFO - Int Tax Shield #N/A (Cum CFO - Interest)/Cum PAT 640% (ideally, should be more than 75%. Higher the better)
- Total Capex 13,666
TOTAL FCFF #N/A Cum FCFF/Cum EBIAT #N/A
(Payout Ratio)
- Total Interest + Int Tax Benefit #N/A
Total FCFE through operations #N/A
VALUATION MULTIPLES
Based on Equity Value
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 2.4.23
No. of shares (in crores) 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
EPS 11 24 21 9 7 3 3 7 7 4 16
Stock Price 72 131 220 49 73 105 147 138 1,031 2,015 1,750
P / ETTM 6.5 5.5 10.5 5.5 9.9 30.7 51.4 19.0 152.0 466.1 110.6
Book Value / Share 194.5 216.0 233.9 121.6 128.5 137.2 134.2 154.1 156.0 202.4 202.4
P/B 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 6.6 10.0 8.6
EBITDA 7,796 10,540 13,242 2,727 2,652 2,401 2,474 3,167 3,000 4,726 7,606
EV / EBITDA TTM 17.9 7.8 7.9 8.5 10.2 11.3 10.4 7.6 42.6 54.9
EV / Sales 3.0 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 3.2 3.7
DIVIDENDS
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 2.4.23
Dividends (Rs crores) 154 154 154 44 44 44 44 110 110 110
% RETURN IF YOU PURCHASED THE STOCK IN THE PAST AND SOLD IT TODAY
INPUT Date of Purchase Mar/17
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 2.4.23
Stock Bought - - - - -73 - - - - -
Dividends - - - - 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0
Stock Sold 1,750
Total - - - - -72 0 0 1 1 1 1,750
IRR 70.3%
NOTE: The IRR calculated above DOES NOT account for buybacks, if any, by a company
ROIC PREDICTOR
Calculate the impact of ROIC of a company using your estimates of margins, tax and capital efficiency ratios
ROIC Pre-Tax 0%
1) Refer to the historical ranges of these inputs so that you make more informed estimates.
It is very much possible that you can have estimates higher/lower than the historical ranges.
But you should have strong reasons for doing so
2) Remember that these historical numbers are without adjustments as stated in the previous tab
ciency ratios
2.7
29
137
0
50%
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
QUARTER ANALYSIS
EBIT Margin 4% 2% 4% 3% 4% 4%
EBITDA Margin 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6%
PAT Margin 0% -2% 0% -2% 0% -1%
Dec-22 Dec-21 Dec-20 Sep-22 Sep-21 Sep-20 Jun-22 Jun-21 Mar-22 Mar-21
Sales 26,612 18,758 11,620 38,175 13,218 9,126 40,844 12,579 24,866 13,525
42% 61% 189% 45% 225% 84%
Operating Profit 1,037 418 640 1,338 563 642 1,325 671 814 747
148% -35% 138% -12% 98% 9%
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter
Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.
Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing those
companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can increase the
size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the circle is to
know its boundaries.
Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.
Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.
Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.
Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.
Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been employed
profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings and
strong return on equity in the past.
Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.
That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against competitors
will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.
Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.
Operating Margin 13.0% 17.1% 19.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.3% 6.3%
PBT Margin 4.3% 2.9% 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 1.4% 1.1% 2.6% 2.7%
Net Margin 2.6% 4.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% 1.9%
Debtor Days 70.9 67.2 86.7 109.3 127.3 122.9 129.3 110.6 110.6
Inventory Turnover 12.4 14.0 15.8 26.2 22.1 15.3 15.1 16.9 22.5
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.0 0.8 0.8 3.2 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.1 3.6
Debt/Equity 3.2 3.0 3.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9
Debt/Assets 62.0% 60.9% 63.9% 46.0% 43.8% 31.3% 26.4% 26.5% 31.4%
Interest Coverage (Times) 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.8
Return on Equity 5.7% 11.1% 8.9% 7.3% 5.7% 2.5% 2.1% 4.7% 4.3%
Return on Capital Employed 6.1% 7.6% 8.9% 7.4% 6.7% 5.3% 8.0% 9.2% 7.4%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 7,351 8,016 8,168 4,547 167 2,005 2,080 816 2,805
Mar/22
75.6%
-12.3%
-36.3%
0.0%
-65.7%
-80.0%
5.3%
1.4%
0.7%
72.1
10.2
2.3
1.9
41.0%
1.4
2.1%
5.4%
561
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai
Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 541.7 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (5.0) Long-Term Growth Rate
Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) (845) Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 199,552 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)
EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10
541.7
8.5
(10.1)
(6,294)
199,552
of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Final Calculations
Terminal Year 5,040
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 15,505
Terminal Value 16,228
Total PV of Cash Flows 31,733
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###