Investor Diary Expert Stock Analysis Excel (V-3) : How To Use This Spreadsheet?

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Investor Diary Expert Stock Analysis Excel (V-3)

http://www.investordiary.in/

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET?

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/register/

Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/excel/ -
and upload this excel file.
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of your
chosen company. Scroll down and come to the first financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View
Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company will be consolidated.

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
company's financial data will be exported in an excel file in the exact format as "Investor Diary Stock Analysis Excel".
Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on Screener.in will be downloaded in this very format.

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS?
1. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download.
2. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step 2 mentioned
above. But DON'T touch the sheet titled "Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
3. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before working on the sheet.
4. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do that along with working
on this sheet. You may sometime find some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
5. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - [email protected] - and I will try to
fix the same and update the sheet
6. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in


click here for the explanation
Most investors in the stock market wonder in which stock they should invest because remember we have almost 6000 stocks
So you can use my Winner's list of stocks to generate your Investment Ideas.

Let's make this process simple for you:

Step-1: Click Here To Get Multi-Bagger List Of Stocks

Step-2: Kick out stocks that are out of your circle of competence. Don't worry if you have to kick ou

Step-3: With the remaining stocks, do the complete Stock Analysis by using this excel sheet.

Tip-1: You can Register your Email id with screener.in and can get updates by Email
Tip-2: In the search query, you can customize it as per your requirements, for example I used Market Capitalization > 500 (in

Click Here: List Of 52-Week Low Stocks In India

Click Here: IPO Historic Table

(High Quality Stocks)---List Of Stocks That Passed Our 2-Minute Test In India

Alembic Pharma Dhanuka Agritech Cupid Kajaria Ceramics Relaxo Footwear


3M India Cera Sanitary. Gulf Oil Lubric. Orient Refrac. Tide Water Oil
Abbott India Colgate-Palm. Hawkins Cookers P & G Hygiene TTK Prestige
Accelya Kale CRISIL Honeywell Auto P I Inds. V-Guard Inds.
AIA Engg. Cummins India ICRA Page Industries Vinati Organics
Ajanta Pharma Cyient Indraprastha Gas Persistent Sys VST Inds.
Akzo Nobel DFM Foods Jyothy Lab. Poly Medicure Whirlpool India
Amara Raja Batt. Divi's Lab. Kansai Nerolac Sanofi India Zydus Wellness
Amrutanjan Healt Dr Lal Pathlabs Kewal Kir.Cloth. Sheela Foam Galaxy Surfactant
Astral Poly eClerx Services L & T Infotech Solar Inds. Asian Paints
Atul Auto Elantas Beck La Opala RG Sonata Software Avenue Super.
Avanti Feeds Endurance Tech. Marico Sun TV Network Bajaj Auto
Berger Paints FDC Mayur Uniquote Supreme Inds. Britannia Inds.
Bombay Burmah Foseco India Mindtree Swaraj Engines Dabur India
Cadila Health. G M Breweries MRF Symphony Eicher Motors
CARE Ratings Gabriel India Navneet Educat. Syngene Intl. Godrej Consumer
Castrol India Gillette India NESCO Tata Elxsi HCL Technologies
Century Ply. GlaxoSmith C H L Oracle Fin.Serv. Thyrocare Tech. Hero Motocorp
http://www.investordiary.in/

r we have almost 6000 stocks to select from.

y if you have to kick out a lot of stocks in the process.

this excel sheet.

Market Capitalization > 500 (in crores), you can feed in, higher or lower figure.

n India

pidilite industries
Hind. Unilever
Hind.Zinc
Infosys
ITC
Maruti Suzuki
Nestle India
TCS
Tech Mahindra
Titan Company
Wipro
Assoc.Alcohols
Control Print
Zensar Tech.
Jenburkt Pharma
Aurabindo Pharma
Balkrishna Ind
CCL Products
Investor Diary Stock Analysis Excel
http://www.investordiary.in/
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company SEPC LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1750
Face Value (Rs) 1
No. of Shares (Crore) 114
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 199552

Key Financials - Trend


Parameters Details

Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 4.58%

Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -7.94%


Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) -7.80%
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.10
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 5.09%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 91.85
Latest P/E (x) 97.12
SEPC LTD
http://www.investordiary.in/ 2-MINUTE TEST BUY

1 Does the firm pass minimum quality hurdle? YES

2 Has the firm ever made any Net Profit? YES

3 Does the company generate consistent cash flow from operations? YES

4 Are returns on equity consistently above 15% with reasonable leverage? NO

5 Is earnings growth consistent or erratic? CONSISTENT

6 How clean is the balance sheet? LOW-DEBT

c Do you understand the debt? YES

7 Does the firm generate free cash flow? YES

8 Price To Earnings Ratio UNFAVORABLE

9 Share Price
8 How much other is there?(One-time charges, etc) NONE

9 Has the number of shares outstanding increased markedly over the past several years? NO
Assuming no big acquisitions, if shares outstanding are consistently increasing around
by more than 2% per year, think long and hard before investing the firm
click here for the explanation

Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 199552

Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
1613 2,221 1,948 1,011 988 757 717 1,138 923 777

7666 8228 8532 5112 774 2942 3236 2454 4043 1385

8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 5% 5% 7% 5% 3%

38% -12% -48% -2% -23% -5% 59% -19% -16%


NET PROFITS CAGR 3-YR 3% 5-YR -5% 7-YR -12% 10-YR -8%

FINANCIAL LEVERAGE= 4.56 DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO= 1.8692971 ICR 1.83

FREE CASH FLOW TO SALES -3.12%

-1128.94 -1404.96 77186.38 -2762.62 7596.88 4142.18 -1056.66 1666.29 -33866.62

4.93 6.51 12.41 5.37 8.08 15.18 22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34
CURRENT P/E RATIO 97.12 3-YR 140.52 5-YR 91.85 10-YR 49.65 Current

72 131 220 49 73 105 147 138 1,031 2,015 1,750


Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
NSI 0 %change 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
No. of Equity Shares 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
New Bonus Shares 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BUY
SELL
HOLD
AVOID

NONE
FEW

CONSISTENT
CYCLICAL

5.27

ERRATIC
DEBT-FREE
LOW-DEBT
MODERATELY-LOW DEBT
MODERATE DEBT
MODERATELY-HIGH DEBT
HIGH-DEBT

YES
NO
BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS WITH FLOW-CHART
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
http://www.investordiary.in/
STEP-1 STEP-2 STEP-3 STEP-4
Borrowings BS
Borrowings CFA
Financial Leverage
Debt to Equity ratio
Equity Share Capital Reserves BS Int. Coverage ratio OTH Liabilities BS
ESC. CFA Reserves CFA T.Assets/T.Liabilities OTH Liabilities CFA
2 minute test T.Debt/T.Assets
T.Debt/T.Equity
Int. coverage ratio
T.Debt/Cash Flow
T.Debt/F.Cash Flow

IT’S AMOST A
NO DILUTION GOOD INCREASED
DEBTFREE COMPANY

AVANTI FEEDS IS A DEBTFREE COMPANY AND IS NOT SELLING ANY ADDITIONAL SHARES. ITS RESERVES ARE INCREASING
ASSETS IS 51%, WHERE AS ITS NET TANGIBLE ASSETS + CWIP (CAPITAL WORK IN PROGRESS) IS ONLY 19%. ITS ACCOU

STRONG FINANCIAL HEALT


BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS WITH FLOW-CHART
ASSETS

STEP-5 STEP-6 STEP-7 STEP-8

Net Block BS
CWIP BS
Net Block CFA Invt BS OTH Assets BS A/R BS
CWIP CFA Invt CFA OTH Assets CFA A/R CFA
F.Asset Turnover Cash&Bank CFA A/R DAYS

IT’S A LOW CAPITAL CASH AS % OF


A/R IS 5
INTENSIVE TOTAL ASSETS IS DECREASED
DAYS
BUSINESS AROUND 51%

RESERVES ARE INCREASING CONSISTENTLY. IT'S RUNNING A LOW CAPITAL INTENSIVE BUSINESS, i.e., CASH AS A % OF TOTAL
ESS) IS ONLY 19%. ITS ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE DAYS AND INTENTORY DAYS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE YEARS.

STRONG FINANCIAL HEALTH


STEP-9

INV BS
INV CFA
INV Turnover
Days in INV

INV DAYS IS 40

e., CASH AS A % OF TOTAL


TLY OVER THE YEARS.
STRONG FINANCIAL HEALTH
AVERAGE FINANCIAL HEALTH
WEAK FINANCIAL HEALTH
Balance Sheet http://www.investordiary.in/
SEPC LTD GOOD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 BAD
Equity Share Capital 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
Reserves 21,286 23,647 25,618 13,268 14,026 14,979 14,646 16,837 17,049 22,147
Borrowings 69,332 71,980 83,571 19,169 20,846 17,637 11,243 12,419 16,227 41,604
Other Liabilities 21,143 22,365 21,420 9,132 12,630 23,679 16,537 17,509 18,231 37,726
Total ### ### 130,718 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 101,586
click here for the explanation
Net Block 48,770 70,579 83,834 10,473 13,668 10,555 9,020 10,476 10,838 30,123
Capital Work in Progress 29,248 13,574 6,733 7,705 7,731 5,526 5,765 7,347 8,825 23,544
Investments 323 288 744 805 1,042 1,461 1,511 1,952 5,503 4,292
Other Assets 33,529 33,661 39,407 22,696 25,170 38,864 26,240 27,099 26,451 43,627
Total ### ### 130,718 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 101,586

Working Capital 12,386 11,296 17,987 13,564 12,540 15,184 9,703 9,590 8,220 5,901
Receivables 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099 14,307 13,147 11,983 13,712
Inventory 3,733 3,924 4,082 1,300 1,652 2,343 2,669 2,562 1,757 6,788
USE COMMON FORM ANALYSIS AND FINANCIAL HEALTH WORKSHEET TO ANALYSE THE BALANCE SHEET
Common Form Balance Sheet
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Equity Share Capital 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 19% 20% 20% 32% 29% 27% 34% 36% 33%
Borrowings 62% 61% 64% 46% 44% 31% 26% 26% 31%
Other Liabilities 19% 19% 16% 22% 27% 42% 39% 37% 35%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 44% 60% 64% 25% 29% 19% 21% 22% 21%
Capital Work in Progress 26% 11% 5% 18% 16% 10% 14% 16% 17%
Investments 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 11%
Other Assets 30% 29% 30% 54% 53% 69% 62% 58% 51%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 8% 9% 12% 24% 27% 21% 34% 28% 23%
Inventory 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3%
Cash & Bank 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4%

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AVG MIN MAX
Mar-21
0% 0% 0% 0%
22% 27% 19% 36%
41% 43% 26% 64%
37% 29% 16% 42%
100% 100% 100% 100%
30% 33% 19% 64%
23% 16% 5% 26%
4% 3% 0% 11%
43% 48% 29% 69%
100% 100% 100% 100%
13% 20% 8% 34%
7% 4% 3% 7%
4% 4% 3% 7%
SEPC LTD GOOD
FINANCIAL HEALTH BAD
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE= 4.56 MORE THAN 4 IS RISKY
DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO= 1.87 LESS THAN 1 IS GOOD
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO= 1.83 HIGHER IS BETTER (atleast greater than 10)

Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


INVENTORY TURNOVER 12.42 14.00 15.79 26.16 22.12 15.34 15.13
DAYS IN INVENTORY 29.38 26.07 23.11 13.95 16.50 23.80 24.12
DAYS IN RECEIVABLES 70.85 67.17 86.74 109.34 127.30 122.93 129.33
FIXED ASSET TURNOVER 0.95 0.78 0.77 3.25 2.67 3.40 4.48
Total assets/Total liabilities= 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.47 1.42 1.37 1.53
Total debt/Total assets= 0.62 0.61 0.64 0.46 0.44 0.31 0.26
Total debt/Total equity= 3.24 3.03 3.25 1.43 1.47 1.17 0.76
Interest coverage ratio= 1.57 1.28 1.38 1.78 1.86 1.39 1.28
CFFO/capital expenditures= 0.9 0.9 0.2
Depreciation/CFFO= 30.0% 39.2% 41.3% 6.2% 40.8% 22.6% 12.0%
Capital expenditures/Depreciation= 2.90 2.82 -229.21 11.21 -7.01 -2.33
TOTAL DEBT / CASH FLOW = 9.04 8.75 9.80 3.75 26.93 5.99 3.47
TOTAL DEBT / FREE CASH FLOW = -63.76 -59.48 0.25 -7.55 2.32 2.71

click here for the explanation


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Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 AVG MIN MAX


16.94 22.50 10.23 17.06 10.23 26.16
21.55 16.22 35.69 23.04 13.95 35.69
110.56 110.62 72.10 100.69 67.17 129.33
4.14 3.65 2.30 2.64 0.77 4.48
1.57 1.50 1.28 1.39 1.24 1.57
0.26 0.31 0.41 0.43 0.26 0.64
0.73 0.95 1.87 1.79 0.73 3.25
1.71 1.79 1.38 2 1 2
0.7 1.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.7
19.2% 13.3% 90.1% 31.5% 6.2% 90.1%
7.44 4.43 28.25 -20.17 -229.21 28.25
5.06 4.01 30.03 10.68 3.47 30.03
-11.75 9.74 -1.23 -14.31 -63.76 9.74
LESS THAN 3 IS BEST
INCOME STATEMENT
Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
SALES 46375 54947 64465 34008 36533 35924 40379 43403 39537 69420
% of Growth YoY 18% 17% -47% 7% -2% 12% 7% -9% 76%
COST OF GOODS SOLD 36,955 42742 46505.9 29682.8 32826.6 33751.6 36878.4 37167.5 33705.6 69731.8
GROSS PROFIT 9420 12,205 17,959 4,326 3,706 2,172 3,500 6,235 5,832 -312
SELLING,GENERAL&ADMINISTRATIVE EXP 3,303 4,176 4,919 2,190 1,731 1,680 2,531 3,320 2,412 3,842
OPERATING INCOME BEFORE DEPRECIATION 7796 10540 13242 2727 2652 2401 2474 3167 3000 4726
DEPRECIATION,DEPLETION&AMORTIZATION 2298 3223 3522 314 315 664 390 472 537 1248
OPERATING PROFIT 5498 7,317 9,720 2,413 2,336 1,737 2,084 2,695 2,463 3,478
OTHER INCOME 1775 1,157 792 1,044 749 363 504 872 494 1,012
INTEREST EXPENSE 3492 5703 7056 1357 1257 1250 1625 1572 1377 2526
PRETAX INCOME 2005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487 459 1,122 1,086 952
% of Growth YoY -20% 65% -60% 2% -55% -6% 145% -3% -12%
TOTAL TAXES 788 -1032 365 78 271 112 145 324 340 477
NET PROFIT 1613 2,221 1,948 1,011 988 757 717 1,138 923 777
% of Growth YoY 38% -12% -48% -2% -23% -5% 59% -19% -16%
EPS 14.7 20 18 9 9 7 7 10 8 7
% of Growth YoY 38% -12% -48% -2% -23% -5% 59% -19% -16%
PRICE TO EARNINGS 4.9 6.5 12.4 5.4 8.1 15.2 22.5 13.3 122.9 285.3
PRICE 72 131 220 49 73 105 147 138 1,031 2,015
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 9.5% 6.9% 7.9% 4.4% 4.5% 5.8% 6.1% 9.7% 11.9% 14.2%
MARKET CAP 7945 14,461 24,180 5,423 7,977 11,493 16,140 15,133 113,406 221,582
RETAINED EARNINGS 1459 2067 1794 967 944 713 673 1028 813 667
BUFFETT'S $1 TEST 19.2

EXPENSES
Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

COST OF MATERIALS CONSUMED 33,931 38,409 42,516 28,196 30,945 30,771 33,821 34,350 29,791 57,651
POWER AND FUEL 18 31 31 8 7 3 6 12 13 59
OTHER MANUFACTURING EXPENSES 3,055 3,625 4,255 1,706 1,910 2,205 2,551 3,115 4,358 8,088
SELLING AND ADMIN 2,233 2,566 3,070 1,358 1,005 928 1,231 1,955 1,306 2,118
CHANGES IN INVENTORY -48 677 -295 -226 -36 773 500 -310 -457 3,934
EMPLOYEE BENEFIT EXPENSES 643 830 1,152 529 511 569 657 683 830 1,182
FINANCE COSTS 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250 1,625 1,572 1,377 2,526
DEPRECIATION 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664 390 472 537 1,248
OTHER EXPENSES 428 780 698 303 215 183 643 683 276 542
GOOD INCOME STATEMENT
Trailing BAD Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
130497 % % % % % % %
SALES 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
COST OF GOODS SOLD 79.69% 77.79% 72.14% 87.28% 89.85% 93.95% 91.33%
GROSS MARGINS 20.31% 22.21% 27.86% 12.72% 10.15% 6.05% 8.67%
SELLING,GENERAL&ADMINISTRATIVE EXP 7.12% 7.60% 7.63% 6.44% 4.74% 4.68% 6.27%
EBITDA MARGINS 16.81% 19.18% 20.54% 8.02% 7.26% 6.68% 6.13%
DEPRECIATION,DEPLETION&AMORTIZATION 4.95% 5.87% 5.46% 0.92% 0.86% 1.85% 0.97%
5,617 OPERATING MARGINS 8.03% 11.21% 13.85% 4.03% 4.34% 3.82% 3.91%
1,103 OTHER INCOME/EXPENSE 3.83% 2.11% 1.23% 3.07% 2.05% 1.01% 1.25%
3066 INTEREST EXPENSE 7.53% 10.38% 10.95% 3.99% 3.44% 3.48% 4.02%
2,551 PBT MARGINS 4.32% 2.94% 4.13% 3.10% 2.95% 1.36% 1.14%
TOTAL TAXES 1.70% -1.88% 0.57% 0.23% 0.74% 0.31% 0.36%
NET MARGINS 3.48% 4.04% 3.02% 2.97% 2.70% 2.11% 1.78%
2,055 EFFECTIVE TAX RATE 39.28% -63.95% 13.72% 7.38% 25.13% 23.03% 31.51%

18

97.1
click here for the explanation
1,750
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
% % %
100% 100% 100% AVG MIN MAX
85.63% 85.25% 100.45% 86.34% 72.14% 100.45%
14.37% 14.75% -0.45% 13.66% -0.45% 27.86%
7.65% 6.10% 5.54% 6.38% 4.68% 7.65%
7.30% 7.59% 6.81% 10.63% 6.13% 20.54%
1.09% 1.36% 1.80% 2.51% 0.86% 5.87%
4.20% 4.98% 3.55% 6.19% 3.55% 13.85%
2.01% 1.25% 1.46% 1.93% 1.01% 3.83%
3.62% 3.48% 3.64% 5.45% 3.44% 10.95%
2.59% 2.75% 1.37% 2.66% 1.14% 4.32%
0.75% 0.86% 0.69% 0.43% -1.88% 1.70%
2.62% 2.33% 1.12% 2.62% 1.12% 4.04%
28.90% 31.28% 50.07% 18.63% -63.95% 50.07%

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Common Form P&L
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 73% 70% 66% 83% 85% 86% 84% 79% 75%
Change in Inventory 0% 1% 0% -1% 0% 2% 1% -1% -1%
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11%
Employee Cost 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3%
Other Expenses 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1%
Operating Profit 13% 15% 20% 6% 5% 1% 2% 7% 9%
Other Income 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Depreciation 5% 6% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Interest 8% 10% 11% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3%
Profit Before Tax 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3%
Tax 2% -2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Net Profit 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GOOD
Mar-21 BAD AVG MIN MAX
100% 100% 100% 100%
83% 78% 66% 86% A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
6% 1% -1% 6% figure. Creating common-size financial statements
0% 0% 0% 0% makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
12% 7% 5% 12% compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
2% 2% 1% 2% raw financial statement may not uncover.
3% 4% 3% 5%
1% 1% 1% 2%
-6% 7% -6% 20%
1% 2% 1% 4%
2% 3% 1% 6%
4% 5% 3% 11%
1% 3% 1% 4%
1% 0% -2% 2%
1% 3% 1% 4%
0% 0% 0% 0%
ancial statement is displays line
age of one selected or common
mmon-size financial statements
nalyze a company over time and
ts peers. Using common-size
helps investors spot trends that a
tatement may not uncover.
SEPC LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Net Fixed Asset Turnover 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.0 3.0 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.4
NET MARGINS 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 10% 7% 8% 4% 4% 6% 6% 10% 12% 14%
Depreciation as % of NFA 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 6% 4% 5% 5% 4%

SELF-SUSTAINABLE GROWTH RATE (SSGR) -1.34% 1.01% 1.66% 2.69% 2.71% 3.75% 2.33%

TRENDS: 3 YEARS 5 YEARS 7 YEARS 10 YEARS


SALES GROWTH RATE (CAGR) 19.8% 13.7% 1.1% 4.6%
PBT Growth (CAGR) 27.6% -2.5% -13.7% -7.9%
Net Profit Growth (CAGR) 2.7% -4.7% -12.3% -7.8%

Price to Earning 140.5 91.8 67.5 49.7


Receivables (CAGR) -1.4% 1.5% -1.6% 4.8%
Inventory (CAGR) 36.5% 32.7% 7.5% 6.9%
Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over past 3 or
5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to 10 years)
growth numbers.
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NFAT
NPM
DPR
DEP

FORMALA FOR SSGR = NFAT*NPM*(1-DPR)-DEP

click here for the explanation


SEPC LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
SALES 46375 54947 64465 34008 36533 35924
NET PROFIT 1613 2221 1948 1011 988 757
NET MARGINS 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%
DEPRECIATION,DEPLETION& 2298 3223 3522 314 315 664
NFA 48770 70579 83834 10473 13668 10555
Depreciation as % of NFA 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 6%
Net Fixed Asset Turnover 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.0 3.0
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 10% 7% 8% 4% 4% 6%
(1-DPR) 0.90 0.93 0.92 0.96 0.96 0.94
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
40379 43403 39537 69420
717 1138 923 777
2% 3% 2% 1%
390 472 537 1248
9020 10476 10838 30123
4% 5% 5% 4%
4.1 4.5 3.7 3.4
6% 10% 12% 14%
0.94 0.90 0.88 0.86
Cash Flow Statement 5,000
SEPC LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942 3,236 2,454 4,043 1,385 44,372 -
% Growth YoY 7% 4% -40% -85% 280% 10% -24% 65% -66% Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20
Cash from Investing Activity ### -8,007 -11,465 -1,825 -1,460 -7,649 2,487 -1,082 -8,611 ### -69,442
Cash from Financing Activity 7,199 -1,109 3,445 -3,448 716 5,120 -6,158 -221 3,109 15,901 24,554 -5,000
CFFO
Net Cash Flow 75 -888 512 -161 30 413 -436 1,151 -1,459 246 -516 Cf-invest
CFO/Sales 17% 15% 13% 15% 2% 8% 8% 6% 10% 2% Cf-finance
-10,000
CFO/Net Profit 475% 370% 438% 506% 78% 389% 451% 216% 438% 178% 353.99%
Capex 9,357 9,937 -72,074 3,537 -4,654 -906 3,510 2,377 35,252
FCF -1,129 -1,405 77,186 -2,763 7,597 4,142 -1,057 1,666 ### 50,372 -15,000
Average FCF (3 Years) -11,086 CFFO (Good, i.e., business is generating cash)
FCF Growth YoY 24% -5594% -104% -375% -45% -126% -258% -2132% CFI (Bad, i.e, instead of reinvesting in business, they are liquidating it)
-20,000
FCF/Sales -2% -2% 227% -8% 21% 10% -2% 4% -49%
FCF/Net Profit -51% -72% 7637% -280% 1003% 578% -93% 181% -4361% 9,000
Cf-finance Cf-invest CFFO Net Profit CFFO 8,000 Cash Flow From Operating Activities
Some Important Questions to Ask while Analysing Mar-21 15,901 -17,041 1,385 Mar-21 777 1,385 Cash Flow From Investing Activities
7,000
the Cash Flow Statement of the Company Mar-20 3,109 -8,611 4,043 Mar-20 923 4,043 Cash Flow From Financing Activities
6,000
What are the major sources of cash? Mar-19 -221 -1,082 2,454 Mar-19 1,138 2,454 Multiple Sources
5,000
Cash Flow From Operating Activities Mar-18 -6,158 2,487 3,236 Mar-18 717 3,236 Net Profit
4,000 CFFO
Is cffo sufficient to cover cap ex? Mar-17 5,120 -7,649 2,942 Mar-17 757 2,942 Cash Flow From Operating Activities
3,000
YES Mar-16 716 -1,460 774 Mar-16 988 774 Cash Flow From Investing Activities
2,000
Relationship between Net Profit & CFFO for past 10yrs? Mar-15 -3,448 -1,825 5,112 Mar-15 1,011 5,112 Cash Flow From Financing Activities
Mar-14 3,445 -11,465 8,532 Mar-14 1,948 8,532 1,000
Consistent Multiple Sources
Jun-13 -1,109 -8,007 8,228 Jun-13 2,221 8,228 0
click here for the explanation Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20
Mar-12 7,199 -14,790 7,666 Mar-12 1613 7,666 Consistent
In-Consistent
SEPC LTD
PROFITABILITY
YEAR Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED% 6.1% 7.6% 8.9% 7.4% 6.7% 5.3% 8.0% 9.2% 7.4% 5.4%

DUPONT-ANALYSIS
YEAR Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

NET MARGIN% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.1%

ASSET TURNOVER 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7

RETURN ON ASSETS% 1.44% 1.88% 1.49% 2.42% 2.07% 1.34% 1.69% 2.43% 1.79% 0.76%

FINANCIAL LEVERAGE 5.23 4.97 5.08 3.12 3.37 3.74 2.88 2.77 3.01 4.56

RETURN ON EQUITY% 7.5% 9.3% 7.6% 7.6% 7.0% 5.0% 4.9% 6.7% 5.4% 3.5%

FREE CASH FLOW TO SALES ANALYSIS

FREE CASH FLOW = CASHFLOW FROM OPERATIONS-CAPITAL SPENDING

YEAR Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

CFFO (CASH FLOW STATEMENT) 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39 3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 9356.66 9936.62 -72074.37 3536.69 -4654.49 -906.26 3510.22 2377.02 35251.9

OWNER'S EARNINGS(FCFE) -1128.94 -1405.0 77186.4 -2762.6 7596.9 4142.2 -1056.7 1666.3 -33866.6
FREE CASH FLOW/SALES(%) -2.05% -2.18% 226.96% -7.56% 21.15% 10.26% -2.43% 4.21% -48.78%
MINIMUM 5% IS GOOD

PROFITABILITY MATRIX

FREE CASH FLOW TO SALES -3.12% HIGH LESS RISKY COMPANY

ROE<15% AND FREE CASH FLOW>5% ROE>15% AND FREE CASH FLOW>5%
RETURN ON EQUITY % 5.1%
GOOD FREE CASH FLOW BUT BAD ROE GREAT COMPANY
FREE CASH FLOW 5%

HIGH RISK COMPANY

ROE<15% AND FREE CASH FLOW<5% ROE>15% AND FREE CASH FLOW<5%

WORST COMPANY GOOD ROE BUT BAD FREE CASH FLOW

LOW
15%
RETURN ON EQUITY

PROTABILITY MATRIX GREAT COMPANY

PRICING POWER MOAT NONE STRENGTH


COST ADVANTAGE MOAT NONE NO MOAT
COMPETETIVE ADVANTAGE PERIOD
FAVORABLE
LONG CAP LONGEST CAP

FAVORABLE COMPANY STRATEGY FAVORABLE COMPANY STRATEGY


BUT AND
UNFAVORABLE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE FAVORABLE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

COMPANY STRATEGY

SHORTEST CAP SHORT CAP


1. PRICING POWER
2. LOW-COST
3. BOTH UNFAVORABLE COMPANY STRATEGY FAVORABLE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
4. NONE AND BUT
UNFAVORABLE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE UNFAVORABLE COMPANY STRATEGY

UNFAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE FAVORABLE

COMPETETIVE ADVANTAGE MATRIX SHORTEST CAP

GROWTH ADVANTAGE PERIOD


HIGH
HIGH PAT GROWTH HIGHEST PAT GROWTH
HIGH COMPANY GROWTH MINDSET HIGH COMPANY GROWTH MINDSET
BUT AND
LOW INDUSTRY GROWTH HIGH INDUSTRY GROWTH

COMPANY GROWTH
MINDSET
LOWEST PAT GROWTH LOWER PAT GROWTH
1. AGGRESSIVE CAPACITY EXPANSION
2. INORGANIC GROWTH STRATEGY
3. OPERATING/FINANCIAL LEVERAGE LOW COMPANY GROWTH MINDSET LOW COMPANY GROWTH MINDSET
AND BUT
LOW INDUSTRY GROWTH HIGH INDUSTRY GROWTH

LOW
LOW INDUSTRY GROWTH HIGH

GROWTH ADVANTAGE MATRIX HIGHEST PAT GROWTH

MOAT GROWTH ADVANTAGE PERIOD


HIGH
GROWTH TRAP TRUE WEALTH CREATOR

HIGH GROWTH HIGH GROWTH


BUT AND
WEAK MOAT HIGH MOAT

TRANSITORY MULTIBAGGER ENDURING MULTIBAGGER

GROWTH
GROWTH
WEALTH DESTROYER QUALITY TRAP

LOW GROWTH HIGH MOAT


AND BUT
WEAK MOAT LOW GROWTH

PERMANENT LOSS OF CAPITAL UNDERPERFORMER


WEAK
WEAK MOAT HIGH

MOAT GROWTH MATRIX TRUE WEALTH CREATOR


GOOD click here for the explanation
BAD

AVG MIN MAX


7.20% 5.31% 9.18%

AVG MIN MAX %ROE

2.6% 1.1% 4.0% 40.61%

0.7 0.4 0.9 -13.74%

1.7% 0.8% 2.4%

3.9 2.8 5.2 73.1%

6.4% 3.5% 9.3% 100%


`
GREAT COMPANY
GOOD FREE CASH FLOW B
GOOD ROE BUT BAD FREE
WORST COMPANY
GREAT COMPANY
GOOD FREE CASH FLOW BUT BAD ROE
GOOD ROE BUT BAD FREE CASH FLOW
WORST COMPANY
SEPC LTD
RELATIVE VALUATION
CHEAP

1. EARNINGS YIELD
EXPENSIVE


EARNINGS YIELD 1.03%

10 YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD 6.68% click here to know govt bond yield
click here for
YIELD SPREAD -5.65%

2. CASH RETURN


CASH RETURN -4.76%

10 YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD 6.68%

YIELD SPREAD -11.44%

3. HISTORICAL PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIO


Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
P/E RATIO 4.9 6.5 12.4 5.4 8.1 15.2 22.5 13.3 122.9 285.3


3 YR AVG P/E RATIO 140.5
5 YR AVG P/E RATIO 91.8
10 YR AVG P/E RATIO 49.7

TRAILING P/E RATIO 97.12

4. HISTORICAL PRICE TO SALES RATIO


Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
P/S RATIO 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 2.9 3.2

3 YR AVG P/S RATIO 2.1
5 YR AVG P/S RATIO 1.4
10 YR AVG P/S RATIO 0.8

TRAILING P/S RATIO 1.53

5. HISTORICAL PRICE TO BOOK RATIO


Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
P/B RATIO 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 6.6 10.0


3 YR AVG P/B RATIO 5.8
5 YR AVG P/B RATIO 3.9
10 YR AVG P/B RATIO 2.2

TRAILING P/B RATIO 8.97


CHEAP WOW, IT'S CHEAP! ☺
EXPENSIVE IT'S EXPENSIVE ☹
click here for the explanation
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
SEPC LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) ### (133,857)


Want to use my fundamental growth YES 199,552
Years 1-10 -67%
FCF Growth Rate 15.00%
Discount Rate 12.00%
Terminal Growth Rate 3.75%
click here for the expla
Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) 33,396

Year FCF Growth Present Value


1 (11,418) 2.99% (10,194)
2 (11,760) 2.99% (9,375)
3 (12,112) 2.99% (8,621)
4 (12,475) 2.99% (7,928)
5 (12,848) 2.99% (7,290)
6 (13,252) 3.15% (6,714)
7 (13,689) 3.30% (6,192)
8 (14,161) 3.45% (5,720)
9 (14,671) 3.60% (5,291)
10 (15,221) 3.75% (4,901)

If you don't like using past growth rates, then you can use fundamental growth rates which are more dynamic and forwardin
reinvestment ( i.e., how much money you retain in the business ) and return of equity (i.e., the return you generat

GROWTH RATE= (1- Payout Ratio) x Return on equity

ROE X (1- PAYOUT RATIO) = GROWTH


YEAR ROE (1-DPR) GROWTH
CURRENT 3.49% 85.84% 2.99%
1 3.49% 85.84% 2.99%
2 3.49% 85.84% 2.99%
3 3.49% 85.84% 2.99%
4 3.49% 85.84% 2.99%
5 3.49% 85.84% 2.99%
6 5.79% 73.67% 3.15%
7 8.09% 61.50% 3.30%
8 10.40% 49.34% 3.45%
9 12.70% 37.17% 3.60%
10 15.00% 25.00% 3.75%
TERMINAL (STABLE) 15.00% 25.00% 3.75%
What IF, Initial FCF Is Negative, Then Make Your Best Case Assumptions,

YEAR CFFO CAP EX FCF


CURRENT 1385 50% 693
1 1427 50% 713
2 1470 50% 735
3 1514 50% 757
4 1559 50% 779
5 1606 50% 803
6 1656 50% 828
7 1711 50% 855
8 1770 50% 885
9 1833 50% 917
10 1902 50% 951

1. SIZE 199552
2. FINANCIAL HEALTH STRONG FINANCIAL HEALTH
3. EARNINGS GROWTH CONSISTENT
4. ECONOMIC MOAT NO MOAT
5. MANAGEMENT HIGH QUALITY MANAGEMENT
6. COMPLEXITY LOW

ESTIMATING THE RISKINESS IN CASH FLOWS (DISCOUNT RATE)


Valuation GOOD
BAD
WOW, IT'S CHEAP! ☺
DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)
Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
IT'S EXPENSIVE

click here for the explanation
Final Calculations


Terminal Year (15,792)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (72,226)
Terminal Value (61,631)
Total PV of Cash Flows (133,857)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 199,552
Share Price 1750
Value Per Share -1174

growth rates which are more dynamic and forwarding looking. Growth in net profit is the function of
ss ) and return of equity (i.e., the return you generate on incremental retained earnings).

TH RATE= (1- Payout Ratio) x Return on equity

EXPECTED DIVIDEND INCOME ANALYSIS (FUNDAMENTAL GROWTH)


YEAR EPS DPR Dividends Pr. Value
CURRENT 18.0 14.16% 2.55
1 18.6 14.16% 2.63 2.35
2 19.1 14.16% 2.71 2.16
3 19.7 14.16% 2.79 1.99
4 20.3 14.16% 2.87 1.83
5 20.9 14.16% 2.96 1.68
6 21.5 26.33% 5.67 2.87
7 22.3 38.50% 8.57 3.88
8 23.0 50.66% 11.67 4.71
9 23.9 62.83% 14.99 5.40
10 24.7 75.00% 18.56 5.98
Expected Dividend Income From This Stock In Next The 10 Years 73 32.84

Current Share Price 1750


Estimated 10th Year Share Price 495
Estimated 10th Year Share Price + Dividends 568
Total Return -10.64%

Investment Return = % EPS Growth + Dividend Income

Investment return = 3.22% 1.23%

Investment return = 4.45%

DIVIDENDS IN CRORES = 8369

Capital Gains + Dividends 36646

Estimated 10th Year Market Cap 56426

Discounted Estimated 10th Year Market Cap 18168

Discounted Dividends 33

Discounted Value 18201

Disounted Earnings Valuation 160


GROWTH RATE (MANUALLY INPUTTED)
ROE X (1- PAYOUT RATIO) = GROWTH EXPECTED DIVIDEND INCOME ANALYS
YEAR ROE (1-DPR) GROWTH YEAR
CURRENT 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% CURRENT
1 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 1
2 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 2
3 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 3
4 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 4
5 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 5
6 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 6
7 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 7
8 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 8
9 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 9
10 3.49% 429.91% 15.00% 10
Expected Dividend Income From This Stock In Ne

Estimated 10th Y
Estimated 10th Year Share P
Estimated 10th Y

Discounted Estimated 10th

Disounted Ea
IDEND INCOME ANALYSIS (MANUAL GROWTH)
EPS DPR Dividends Pr. Value
18.0 -329.91% -59.46
20.7 -329.91% -68.38 -61.06
23.8 -329.91% -78.64 -62.69
27.4 -329.91% -90.44 -64.37
31.5 -329.91% -104.00 -66.10
36.3 -329.91% -119.60 -67.87
41.7 -329.91% -137.54 -69.68
47.9 -329.91% -158.17 -71.55
55.1 -329.91% -181.90 -73.47
63.4 -329.91% -209.19 -75.43
72.9 -329.91% -240.56 -77.45
ome From This Stock In Next The 10 Years -1388 -689.67

Current Share Price 1750


Estimated 10th Year Share Price 495
mated 10th Year Share Price + Dividends -893
Total Return #NUM!

Investment Return = % EPS Growth + Dividend Income

Investment return = 15.00% #NUM!

Investment return = #NUM!

DIVIDENDS IN CRORES = -158281

Capital Gains + Dividends -130004

Estimated 10th Year Market Cap 56426

counted Estimated 10th Year Market Cap 18168

Discounted Dividends -690

Discounted Value 17478

Disounted Earnings Valuation 153


Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

SEPC LTD SEPC


Dhandho - Worst Case Dhandho -
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 8,208 Year 1-3 15% 0
1 FY18 (12,749) (11,383) Year 4-6 10% 1
2 FY19 (14,661) (11,687) Year 7-10 5% 2
3 FY20 (16,860) (12,001) Discount Rate 12% 3
4 FY21 (18,546) (11,786) 4
5 FY22 (20,400) (11,576) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5
6 FY23 (22,441) (11,369) Sales 14% 6
7 FY24 (23,563) (10,659) PBT -2% 7
8 FY25 (24,741) (9,992) FCF 65% 8


9 FY26 (25,978) (9,368) 9
10 FY27 (27,277) (8,782) 10
10 -272,766 (87,823) 10
Intrinsic Value (188,218) Intrinsic Va
Current Mkt. Cap. 199,552 Current Mkt. C
Premium/(Discount) -206% Premium/(Discou
Value Per Share (1,651) Value Per Sh

You have to adjust the initial free cash flows in case if they are negative.
lue Calculation CHEAP EXPENSIVE
vestor by Mohnish Pabrai
WOW, IT'S CHEAP! ☺
SEPC LTD
Dhandho - Best Case
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr)
IT'S EXPENSIVE
Assumed FCF Growth

Excess Cash (Latest) 8,208 Year 1-3 20%
FY18 (13,303) (11,877) Year 4-6 15%
FY19 (15,963) (12,726) Year 7-10 10%
FY20 (19,156) (13,635) Discount Rate 12%
FY21
FY22
(22,029)
(25,334)
(14,000)
(14,375)
click here for the explanation
FY23 (29,134) (14,760)
FY24 (32,047) (14,497)
FY25 (35,252) (14,238)


FY26 (38,777) (13,983)
FY27 (42,655) (13,734)
(639,825) (206,006)
Intrinsic Value (335,623)
Current Mkt. Cap. 199,552
Premium/(Discount) -159%
Value Per Share (2,944)

they are negative.


Total Returns Model
SEPC LTD
Particulars Mar/12 Jun/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,613 2,221 1,948 1,011 988 757 717 1,138 923 777
Net Profit Margin 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Return on Equity 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 5% 5% 7% 5% 3%
Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 3.22%
GOOD WOW, IT'S CHEAP! ☺
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr)
Current P/E (x)
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated)
2,821
97.1
20.0
BAD IT'S EXPENSIVE ☹
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 56,426
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%


Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 18,201
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 199,552

If you invest 1 lakh today, in 10 yrs it will grow into 36646


Investment Return from this stock in the next 10 years 4.45%
Speculative Return from this stock in the next 10 years -15.09%
Capital Gains -11.87%
Dividend Return 1.23% Total
+ Speculative Return =
Total Return = Investment Return + Speculative Return -10.64% Investment Return Return
PEG RATIO 30.15 3.22% 1.23% + -15.09% = -10.64%
3.2%
DANGER! DANGER! You have Inputted The Most Unrealistic And Irrational Growth Rate
ATTENTION PLEASE! Make Sure That Capital Gains Are Atleast 15%
CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
-8% -5%

ATTENTION PLEASE!
Make Sure That Capital Gains Are Atleast
15%

Multi-Bagger Gains %

14%
Intrinsic Value Range UNDER-VALUED
SEPC LTD OVER-VALUED
Market Cap Value Per Share
Lower Higher Lower Higher
Dhandho -188,218 -335,623 (1,651.03) (2,944.06)
DCF -133,857 (1,174.18)
Total Return 18,201 159.65
PE < G Price 6,619 58.06
Current Market Cap. 199,552 share price 1,750.45 W.Avg Intrinsic Value

ENTRY PRICE Implied PE ASSUMPTIONS


PHASE-1 -999 -55.44 No.Of Shares Bought in Phase-1
PHASE-2 -888 -49.28 No.Of Shares Bought in Phase-2
PHASE-3 -833 -46.20 No.Of Shares Bought in Phase-3
Total No.Of Shares Bought
EXIT PRICE Implied PE
PHASE-1 200 11.07 Capital Gains by selling in Phase-1
PHASE-2 216 11.96 Capital Gains by selling in Phase-2
PHASE-3 239 13.29 Capital Gains by selling in Phase-3
Total Capital Gains (PROFITS)
LET'S CALCULATE THE RETURN YOU CAN GENERATE

YOUR INVESTMENT = 30,000

Phase-1 Phase-2 Phase-3


10000 10000 10000

-1110

TIONS
ught in Phase-1 (10)
ught in Phase-2 (11)
ught in Phase-3 (12)
ares Bought (33)

elling in Phase-1 (12,213)


elling in Phase-2 (12,391)
elling in Phase-3 (12,656) Before 30,000
ins (PROFITS) (37,260) -124.20% After -7260
-2213
-2390.543
-2656
-7260

Total Return
10,000

-124%

(907)
218
SEPC LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Sales 9,126 11,620 13,525 12,579 13,218 18,758 24,866 40,844 38,175 26,612
% Growth YOY 45% 61% 84% 225% 189% 42%
Expenses 8,361 10,848 12,621 11,782 12,335 17,986 23,603 39,102 36,306 24,983
Operating Profit 765 772 904 796 883 772 1,262 1,742 1,869 1,629
Other Income 186 88 -16 152 379 206 276 222 266 339
Depreciation 124 132 156 126 320 354 449 417 531 592
Interest 304 323 436 443 754 708 622 915 934 596
Profit before tax 524 404 296 380 189 -84 468 632 670 780
PBT Margin 6% 3% 2% 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3%
% Growth YOY -64% -121% 58% 67% 255% -1024%
Tax 124 118 86 183 67 14 213 222 231 143
Net profit 362 297 234 271 212 -12 304 469 461 820
% Growth YOY -41% -104% 30% 73% 117% -7151%
OPM 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6%
NEVER PLACE YOUR BUY ORDER WITHOUT GOING THROUGH THIS CHECKLIST

STUDY ITS PRODUCTS/SERVICES CAREFULLY,CHECK WHETHER THEY EXIST IN REAL WORLD AND WHAT
THEY CLAIM ABOUT THEIR PRODUCT/SERVICE IS TRUE OR MAKES SENSE.

READ ATLEAST 10 YEARS OF ANNUAL REPORTS SLOWLY AND SKEPTICALLY.

ARE YOU EXITED BY STORYLINE AND IGNORING WARNING SIGNS?

IS IT JUST LOW P/E OR LOW VALUATION THAT IS TEMPTING YOU TO INVEST? BUY CHEAP STOCKS, BUT
NOT CHEAP QUALITY STOCKS.

STAY AWAY FROM ACQUISITION HUNGRY COMPANIES.

IF YOU FIND ANY RED FLAGS IN YOUR ANALYSIS, NEVER IGNORE, DIG DEEPER.

IF RESULTS ARE GETTING DELAYED.STAY AWAY.

STAY AWAY FROM COMPANIES WHERE INSIDERS ARE SELLING LARGE STAKES.

PROMOTER SHARES ARE PLEDGED,THAT IS ALMOST EQUAL TO SELLING SHARES, SO BE WARY.

IF COMPANY IS FACING TROUBLES COLLECTING CASH (INCREASING RECEIVABLE DAYS).STAY AWAY.

ANALYSE RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS CAREFULLY, ESPECIALLY LOANS.

READ 10-YEARS OF REVENUE RECOGNITION POLICIES AND WATCH OUT FOR ANY POLICY CHANGES.

READ 10-YEARS OF AUDITOR REPORTS.

BE WARY WITH COMPANIES NOT CONDUCTING CONFERENCE CALLS AND NO CHAIRMANS LETTER IN THE
ANNUAL REPORT.

NO FINANCIAL DATA ABOUT ACQUIRED COMPANIES, WATCH OUT.

NEVER INVEST IN COMPANIES WITH HIGH POLITICAL CONNECTION.


COMPANY NAME SEPC LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 114.00
Face Value 1
Current Price 1750.45
Market Capitalization 199551.5

PROFIT & LOSS


Report Date Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 46375.09 54947.22 64465.36 34008.38 36532.86 35923.92
Raw Material Cost 33,930.60 38,408.70 42,515.78 28,195.81 30,945.16 30,771.08
Change in Inventory -47.97 676.69 -295.09 -226.21 -36.38 772.74
Power and Fuel 17.57 31.18 30.62 7.5 7.42 2.91
Other Mfr. Exp 3055.09 3625.38 4254.57 1705.69 1910.37 2204.89
Employee Cost 642.56 829.76 1151.79 528.99 511.48 568.97
Selling and admin 2232.85 2566.34 3069.77 1358.01 1004.69 928.28
Other Expenses 427.75 779.77 697.84 302.58 215.13 182.82
Other Income 1774.86 1157.07 791.64 1043.63 749.41 363.21
Depreciation 2297.86 3223.07 3521.86 314.45 315.46 663.92
Interest 3492.47 5703.04 7056.29 1356.99 1257.31 1250.17
Profit before tax 2005.23 1613.74 2663.39 1055.78 1078.87 486.83
Tax 787.66 -1031.92 365.39 77.94 271.15 112.11
Net profit 1612.98 2220.77 1948.05 1010.72 987.74 757.25
Dividend Amount 153.97 153.97 153.97 43.99 43.99 43.99

Quarters
Report Date Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Sales 9126.42 11620.45 13525.07 12578.77 13218.02 18757.87
Expenses 8360.98 10848.48 12621.38 11782.33 12335.43 17986.15
Other Income 185.72 87.93 -15.57 151.86 379.09 205.53
Depreciation 123.59 132.2 156.2 125.63 319.58 353.94
Interest 304.02 323.29 436.37 443.13 753.53 707.68
Profit before tax 523.55 404.41 295.55 379.54 188.57 -84.37
Tax 124.31 117.81 86.42 182.76 66.83 13.79
Net profit 362.37 296.81 233.95 271.46 212.41 -11.63
Operating Profit 765.44 771.97 903.69 796.44 882.59 771.72

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
Reserves 21285.91 23647.21 25617.83 13267.63 14025.99 14979.19
Borrowings 69,331.83 71,979.92 83,570.64 19,169.35 20,845.72 17,636.69
Other Liabilities 21143.3 22364.81 21419.74 9132.42 12629.78 23679.48
Total 111871.02 118101.92 130718.19 41679.38 47611.47 56405.34
Net Block 48770.27 70578.7 83834.04 10473.3 13667.98 10555.19
Capital Work in Progress 29248.44 13573.6 6733.02 7704.94 7731.49 5525.87
Investments 323.04 288.39 744.11 804.95 1041.75 1460.72
Other Assets 33529.27 33661.23 39407.02 22696.19 25170.25 38863.56
Total 111871.02 118101.92 130718.19 41679.38 47611.47 56405.34
Receivables 9002.18 10112.53 15319.15 10187.46 12741.75 12098.77
Inventory 3,733.34 3,924.07 4,081.68 1,299.78 1,651.90 2,342.56
Cash & Bank 7074.24 3721.12 3651.04 1539.5 1715.09 1884.25
No. of Equity Shares 1099810083 1.1E+09 1.1E+09 1.1E+09 1.1E+09 1.1E+09
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Cash from Operating Activity 7666.23 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39
Cash from Investing Activity -14790.09 -8007.37 -11464.74 -1825.17 -1459.77 -7648.85
Cash from Financing Activity 7199.04 -1108.53 3445.23 -3448.05 715.82 5119.57
Net Cash Flow 75.18 -888.18 512.15 -161.21 30.12 413.11

PRICE: 72.24 131.49 219.86 49.31 72.53 104.5

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21


40378.66 43402.56 39537.13 69420.18
33,821.40 34,350.20 29,791.08 57,651.32
499.99 -310.13 -456.74 3,933.82
5.74 12.22 13.4 58.98
2551.28 3115.25 4357.88 8087.64
657.18 683.28 830.36 1182.1
1230.62 1954.57 1306.48 2118.32
643.09 682.52 275.54 542.04
504.22 872.32 494.31 1012.11
389.77 472.06 537.14 1247.78
1625.07 1572.32 1,376.85 2,525.88
458.72 1122.33 1085.97 952.05
144.54 324.33 339.65 476.68
717.14 1138.17 922.64 776.56
43.99 109.98 109.98 109.98

Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21


24865.52 40844.25 38175.23 26612.23
23603.08 39101.86 36305.88 24983.06
276.04 222.18 266.23 338.6
448.63 417.1 531.39 592.22
621.54 915.00 933.98 595.90
468.31 632.47 670.21 779.65
213.3 221.74 231.31 142.99
304.32 469.46 460.94 820.06
1262.44 1742.39 1869.35 1629.17

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21


109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
14645.96 16836.59 17048.59 22146.53
11,243.20 12,419.30 16,227.06 41,604.03
16537.04 17509.19 18231.09 37725.82
42536.18 46875.06 51616.72 101586.36
9020.11 10476.46 10837.61 30122.77
5764.92 7346.73 8825.46 23544.42
1511.35 1952.49 5502.94 4292.21
26239.8 27099.38 26450.71 43626.96
42536.18 46875.06 51616.72 101586.36
14307.03 13146.53 11982.65 13712.19
2,668.82 2,562.37 1,757.04 6,788.28
1709.28 3376.68 1810.82 3915.86
1.1E+09 1099810083 1099810083 1099810083

1 1 1 1

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21


3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28
2486.91 -1081.85 -8610.66 -17040.62
-6158.41 -220.9 3108.81 15901.42
-435.58 1150.81 -1458.54 246.08

146.75 137.6 1031.15 2014.75

109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98


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dalal-street.in
Warning! Excel can be a wond
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD a deadly weapon if you wish
careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m

Basic Company Details


Parameters Details
Company ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1,750 Remember! Focus on decision
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 114.0
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 199,552

Key Financials - Trend


Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 4.6% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've des
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -7.9% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) -7.8% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.1 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can co
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 3.2%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 143.8
Latest P/E (x) #REF!
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
a deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming


evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
EP S v s P r i c e
Number of shares 114.00 Fair Value ₹ 2,500.00
Face Value 1.00 ₹ 2,000.00
Current Price 1750.45
Market Capitalization 199551.50 ₹ 1,500.00
EPS 7.06 3 Years Avarage ROE 3.90%
₹ 1,000.00
Price to Earning 285.34 3Years Avarage EPS 8.60
Debt to Equity 1.88 3 Years Avarage PE 45.40 ₹ 500.00
ROE 3.49%
₹ 0.00
ROCE 7.15%

Report Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17


PROFIT & LOSS , RATIO
Sales 46375.09 54947.22 64465.36 34008.38 36532.86
18% 17% -47% 7%
Expense 40354.39 45564.44 52015.46 32324.79 34630.63
13% 14% -38% 7%
Net profit 1612.98 2220.77 1948.05 1010.72 987.74
EPS 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19 8.98
0.38 -0.12 -0.48 -0.02
Price 72.24 131.49 219.86 49.31 72.53
Mcap 8235.37 14989.88 25064.07 5621.35 8268.43
82% 67% -78% 47%
Price to Earning 4.93 6.51 12.41 5.37 8.08
Debt to Equity 3.26 3.04 3.26 1.44 1.49
Return on Equity 8% 9% 8% 8% 7%
Return on Capital Emp 8% 9% 3% 7%
BALANCE SHEET
Equity Share Capital 110 110 110 110 110
Reserves 21,285.91 23,647.21 25,617.83 13,267.63 14,025.99
Borrowings 69,331.83 71,979.92 83,570.64 19,169.35 20,845.72
Other Liabilities 21,143.30 22,364.81 21,419.74 9,132.42 12,629.78
Total 111,871.02 118,101.92 130,718.19 41,679.38 47,611.47
Net Block 48,770.27 70,578.70 83,834.04 10,473.30 13,667.98
Capital Work in Progress 29,248.44 13,573.60 6,733.02 7,704.94 7,731.49
Investments 323.04 288.39 744.11 804.95 1,041.75
Other Assets 33,529.27 33,661.23 39,407.02 22,696.19 25,170.25
Total 111,871.02 118,101.92 130,718.19 41,679.38 47,611.47
EP S v s P r i c e Equity Share Capial D e b t( B o r r owin g ) Sales
EPS Price

R e se r v e s D e bt : E qui ty Net Profit

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Trailing


OFIT & LOSS , RATIO
35923.92 40378.66 43402.56 39537.13 69420.18 130497.23
-2% 12% 7% -9% 76% 88%
33886.21 38409.32 41108.17 37031.48 65706.58 123993.88
-2% 13% 7% -10% 77% 89%
757.25 717.14 1138.17 922.64 776.56 2054.78
6.89 6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06 18.02
-0.23 -0.05 0.59 -0.19 -0.16 1.55
104.50 146.75 137.60 1031.15 2014.75
11913.01 16729.52 15686.42 117551.22 229681.73 0.00
44% 40% -6% 649% 95%
15.18 22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34 97.12
1.18 0.77 0.74 0.95 1.88
5% 5% 7% 5% 3%
5% 7% 10% 8% 7%
BALANCE SHEET
110 110 110 110 110
14,979.19 14,645.96 16,836.59 17,048.59 22,146.53
17,636.69 11,243.20 12,419.30 16,227.06 41,604.03
23,679.48 16,537.04 17,509.19 18,231.09 37,725.82
56,405.34 42,536.18 46,875.06 51,616.72 101,586.36
10,555.19 9,020.11 10,476.46 10,837.61 30,122.77
5,525.87 5,764.92 7,346.73 8,825.46 23,544.42
1,460.72 1,511.35 1,952.49 5,502.94 4,292.21
38,863.56 26,239.80 27,099.38 26,450.71 43,626.96
56,405.34 42,536.18 46,875.06 51,616.72 101,586.36
Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LT Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Tax Rate % 39% -64% 14% 7%
Gross Margin % 19% 22% 26% 10%
EBT Margin 4.32% 2.94% 4.13% 3.10%
Operating Margin % 12.98% 17.08% 19.31% 4.95%
1Y rolling growth growth in op margin 32% 13% -74%
3Y rolling growth op margin -27%
5Y rolling growth op margin
7Y rolling growth op margin
Return on Equity % 8% 9% 8% 8%
1Y rolling growth growth in RoE 24% -19% 0%
3Y rolling growth RoE 0%
5Y rolling growth RoE
7Y rolling growth RoE
Return on Invested Capital % 1.10% 1.46% 1.15% 1.76%
1Y rolling growth growth in RoIC 33% -21% 53%
3Y rolling growth ROIC 17%
5Y rolling growth ROIC
7Y rolling growth ROIC
Return on Assets % 1.44% 1.88% 1.49% 2.42%
Dividend Amount Mil 1540 1540 1540 440
Shares Mil 1100 1100 1100 1100
Net Income INR Mil 16,130 22,208 19,481 10,107
Earnings Per Share INR 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19
Diluted Dividend Per Share 1.40 1.40 1.40 0.40
1Y rolling growth growth in Div per share 0% 0% -71%
3Y rolling growth in Div per share -34%
5Y rolling growth in Div per share
7Y rolling growth in Div per share
Dividend Payout 10% 7% 8% 4%
Diluted Earnings Per Share* 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19
1Y rolling growth growth in Diluted EPS 38% -12% -48%
3Y rolling growth diluted EPS -14%
5Y rolling growth diluted EPS
7Y rolling growth diluted EPS
Book Value Per Share INR 194.54 216.01 233.93 121.64
1Y rolling growth growth in BV per share 11% 8% -48%
3Y rolling growth BV per share -14%
5Y rolling growth BV per share
7Y rolling growth BV per share

EBT Margin 4.32% 2.94% 4.13% 3.10%


1Y rolling growth growth in EBT margin -32% 41% -25%
3Y rolling growth EBT margin -10%
5Y rolling growth EBT margin
7Y rolling growth EBT margin
Debt/Equity 5.22 4.97 5.08 3.11
Free Cash Flow INR Mil
1Y rolling growth growth in cash flow
3Y rolling growth free cash flow
5Y rolling growth free cash flow
7Y rolling growth free cash flow
Return on Assets % 1.44% 1.88% 1.49% 2.42%
1Y rolling growth growth in RoA 30% -21% 63%
3Y rolling growth RoA 19%
5Y rolling growth RoA
7Y rolling growth RoA
Operating Cash Flow Growth % YOY
3Y rolling growth OCF
5Y rolling growth OCF
7Y rolling growth OCF
Free Cash Flow/Sales %
1Y rolling growth growth in FCF/Sales
3Y rolling growth FCF/Sales
5Y rolling growth FCF/Sales
7Y rolling growth FCF/Sales
Revenue INR Mil (Sales) 463,751 549,472 644,654 340,084
1Y rolling growth growth in Revenue 18% 17% -47%
3Y rolling growth in revenue -10%
5Y rolling growth in revenue
7Y rolling growth in revenue
Equity Share Capital Mil 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Err:504 123,860 112,964 179,873 135,638
1Y rolling growth growth in Work. Cap. -9% 59% -25%
3Y rolling growth in Work. Cap. 3%
5Y rolling growth in Work. Cap.
7Y rolling growth in Work. Cap.
Operating Profit Mil (EBIT) 60,207 93,828 124,499 16,836
Err:504 12.98% 17.08% 19.31% 4.95%
EBT Margin 4.32% 2.94% 4.13% 3.10%
Net Sales Mil 463751 549472 644654 340084
Earnings before taxes Mil 20052 16137 26634 10558
Debt/Equity 5.22 4.97 5.08 3.11
Total liabilities Mil 1,117,610 1,179,919 1,306,082 415,694
Return on Assets % 1.44% 1.88% 1.49% 2.42%
Total assets Mil 1118710 1181019 1307182 416794
Total liabilities Mil 1117610 1179919 1306082 415694
Cash & Short-Term Investments
Cash & Short-Term Investments

Long-Term Debt (total liability - current liability) 906177 956271 1091885 324370
Debt Level 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reserves Mil 212,859 236,472 256,178 132,676
Borrowings Mil 693,318 719,799 835,706 191,694
Current Liabilities Mil (short term debt) 211,433 223,648 214,197 91,324

Net Block Mil 487,703 705,787 838,340 104,733


Capital Work in Progress Mil 292,484 135,736 67,330 77,049
Investments Mil 3,230 2,884 7,441 8,050
Current Assets Mil 335,293 336,612 394,070 226,962
Sales Mil 463,751 549,472 644,654 340,084
Raw Material Cost Mil 339,306 384,087 425,158 281,958
Power and Fuel Mil 176 312 306 75
Other Mfr. Exp Mil 30,551 36,254 42,546 17,057
Employee Cost 6,426 8,298 11,518 5,290
Selling and admin 22,329 25,663 30,698 13,580
Other Expenses 4,278 7,798 6,978 3,026
Change in Inventory -480 6,767 -2,951 -2,262
Total Expenses 403,544 455,644 520,155 323,248
Cash from Operating Activity Mil 76,662 82,277 85,317 51,120
Cash from Investing Activity -147,901 -80,074 -114,647 -18,252
Cash from Financing Activity 71,990 -11,085 34,452 -34,481
Net Cash Flow 752 -8,882 5,122 -1,612
Depreciation Mil 22,979 32,231 35,219 3,145
Tax Mil 7,877 -10,319 3,654 779
Cost of good sold (COGS) 376,458 428,950 479,528 304,380
Gross Profit 87,293 120,522 165,126 35,704
Return on Capital Employed 4.80% 8.78% 8.41% 5.37%
1Y rolling growth in ROCE 83% -4% -36%
3Y rolling growth in ROCE 4%
5Y rolling growth in ROCE
7Y rolling growth in ROCE
Price 72.24 131.49 219.86 49.31
Price to earning 4.93 6.51 12.41 5.37
Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Average Std Dev
25% 23% 32% 29% 31% 50% 18.63% 31%
9% 7% 8% 12% 11% 4% 12.75% 7%
2.95% 1.36% 1.14% 2.59% 2.75% 1.37% 2.66% 1%
5.21% 5.67% 4.88% 5.29% 6.34% 5.35% 8.71% 6%
5% 9% -14% 8% 20% -16%
-33% -34% 0% 1% 4% 3%
-15% -22% -23% 5% 1%
-12% -13% -17%
7% 5% 5% 7% 5% 3% 6.45% 2%
-8% -28% -3% 38% -20% -35%
-9% -13% -14% -1% 2% -10%
-8% -12% -2% -7% -13%
-2% -8% -10%
1.53% 1.00% 1.18% 1.61% 1.18% 0.54% 1.25% 0%
-13% -35% 18% 37% -27% -54%
2% -5% -13% 2% 6% -23%
-2% -4% 7% -8% -19%
6% -3% -10%
2.07% 1.34% 1.69% 2.43% 1.79% 0.76% 1.73% 1%
440 440 440 1100 1100 1100 Average Std Dev
1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100
9,877 7,573 7,171 11,382 9,226 7,766 12092 5314
8.98 6.89 6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06 11.0 4.8
0.40 0.40 0.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.9 0.4
0% 0% 0% 150% 0% 0% 9% 58%
-34% -34% 0% 36% 36% 36% 1% 35%
-22% -22% -7% 20% 20% -2% 21%
-5% -5% -5% -5% 0%
4% 6% 6% 10% 12% 14% 8% 3%
8.98 6.89 6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06 11.0 4.8
-2% -23% -5% 59% -19% -16% -3% 32%
-24% -27% -11% 5% 7% 3%
-14% -20% -10% -2% -5%
-5% -12% -12%
128.53 137.20 134.17 154.09 156.02 202.37 167.8 40.4
6% 7% -2% 15% 1% 30% 3% 21%
-16% -16% 3% 6% 4% 15%
-7% -9% -8% 5% 10%
-3% -5% -2%

2.95% 1.36% 1.14% 2.59% 2.75% 1.37% 0.0 0.0


-5% -54% -16% 128% 6% -50%
0% -31% -28% -4% 27% 6%
-21% -17% -9% -2% -14%
-7% -1% -15%
3.36 3.73 2.88 2.76 3.00 4.56 3.87 1.0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2.07% 1.34% 1.69% 2.43% 1.79% 0.76%
-14% -35% 26% 44% -26% -57%
3% -3% -11% 5% 10% -23%
-1% -2% 10% -6% -18%
8% -1% -9%
1.73% 1%

-0.70% 8%

365,329 359,239 403,787 434,026 395,371 694,202


7% -2% 12% 7% -9% 76%
-13% -18% 6% 6% 3% 20%
-5% -6% -8% 3% 14%
-1% -5% 1%
1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
125,405 151,841 97,028 95,902 82,196 59,011 116371.7 12392849%
-8% 21% -36% -1% -14% -28%
4% -5% -11% -9% -19% -15%
4% -3% -12% -10% -14%
-4% -4% -15%
19,022 20,377 19,693 22,944 25,057 37,136
5.21% 5.67% 4.88% 5.29% 6.34% 5.35%
2.95% 1.36% 1.14% 2.59% 2.75% 1.37%
365329 359239 403787 434026 395371 694202
10789 4868 4587 11223 10860 9521
3.36 3.73 2.88 2.76 3.00 4.56
475,015 562,954 424,262 467,651 515,067 1,014,764
2.07% 1.34% 1.69% 2.43% 1.79% 0.76%
476115 564053 425362 468751 516167 1015864 0.01441821
475015 562954 424262 467651 515067 1014764 0.0%

348717 326159 258892 292559 332757 637506


1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
140,260 149,792 146,460 168,366 170,486 221,465
208,457 176,367 112,432 124,193 162,271 416,040
126,298 236,795 165,370 175,092 182,311 377,258

136,680 105,552 90,201 104,765 108,376 301,228


77,315 55,259 57,649 73,467 88,255 235,444
10,418 14,607 15,114 19,525 55,029 42,922
251,703 388,636 262,398 270,994 264,507 436,270
365,329 359,239 403,787 434,026 395,371 694,202
309,452 307,711 338,214 343,502 297,911 576,513
74 29 57 122 134 590
19,104 22,049 25,513 31,153 43,579 80,876
5,115 5,690 6,572 6,833 8,304 11,821
10,047 9,283 12,306 19,546 13,065 21,183
2,151 1,828 6,431 6,825 2,755 5,420
-364 7,727 5,000 -3,101 -4,567 39,338
346,306 338,862 384,093 411,082 370,315 657,066
7,741 29,424 32,359 24,536 40,433 13,853
-14,598 -76,489 24,869 -10,819 -86,107 -170,406
7,158 51,196 -61,584 -2,209 31,088 159,014
301 4,131 -4,356 11,508 -14,585 2,461
3,155 6,639 3,898 4,721 5,371 12,478
2,712 1,121 1,445 3,243 3,397 4,767
333,744 335,479 370,356 381,610 349,927 669,800
31,584 23,761 33,431 52,416 45,444 24,401
5.02% 4.90% 7.66% 7.47% 8.55% 5.52%
-7% -2% 56% -3% 14% -35%
-17% -16% 13% 14% 20% -10%
0% -3% -2% 10% 2%
7% 0% -6%
72.53 104.5 146.75 137.6 1031.15 2014.75
8.08 15.18 22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34
Inconsistency measure* Geometric average*
0.347 12%
0.015 13%
0.002 3%
0.014 9%

0.002 6%

0.000 1%

0.001 2%
Inconsistency measure* Geometric average*

0.074 11193
0.069 10
0.055 1
1.379 -3%
5.869 -3%
0.058 -2%
0.695 -1%
0.005 8%
0.069 10
-1.137 0

0.025 164
0.870 0

0.002 0

0.023 3.78
0.001 2%

0.596 0%
2013
Choose 'none' if you want to get rid of a plot
Choose property (left y-axis) 3Y rolling growth RoE 3Y rolling growth RoE Diluted Dividend
Choose property (left y-axis) Diluted Dividend Per Share
Choose property (right y-axis) None 41000 41500 42000 42500 43000
1.6
Choose property (right y-axis) None
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4

Projected Earnings Per Share (crude and approxi


This Year Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
cannot be Price to earning 4.92564 6.512 12.41252 5.36559
used for all Earnings Per Share INR 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19
businesses! Projected EPS in yellow 16.39 15.20 14.00 12.79
Projection from Log(EPS) fit 1.16632 1.30519 1.248286 0.96332
1.20551 1.16156 1.117609 1.07354

Earnings Per Share INR projection Projection from Log(EP


04/2012 08/2013 12/2014 05/2016 09/2017 02/2019 06/2020 10/2021 03/2023 04/2012 08/2013 12/2014
25.00 1.4

20.00 1.2
1
15.00
0.8

10.00 0.6
0.4
5.00
0.2
0.00 0
oE Diluted Dividend Per Share None None

42000 42500 43000 43500 44000 44500 45000


12

10

er Share (crude and approximate and as on Mar 31st of that year)


Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Apr/22 Apr/22
8.075859 15.177167 22.50546 13.29612 122.9145 285.3382
8.98 6.89 6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06
11.59 10.40 9.20 7.99 6.79 5.60 5.59 5.59
0.953329 0.8379256 0.81429 1.014893 0.923719 0.848861 6.45 6.45
1.029588 0.9856374 0.941687 0.897616 0.853666 0.809715 0.8095948314 0.8094744192

Projection from Log(EPS) fit projection


04/2012 08/2013 12/2014 05/2016 09/2017 02/2019 06/2020 10/2021 03/2023
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
6 7 8 9
42825.00 43190.00 43555.00 43921.00
-0.092452 -0.128116 -0.136767 -0.013108
0.399982 0.399982 0.399982 1
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
10 11
44286.00 44651.00
0.023275 -0.10458
1 1
#N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A
COMPANY NAME ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD Create


& Self-
Self-funding, but not enough value
8.55

3.55

-8.51 -6.51 -4.51 -2.51 -0.51 1.49 3.49 5.49 7


-1.45

-6.45

Neither self-fund
nor create value Create Value but not self-funding
-11.45

Earnings Power Box Data For ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD


NET BLOCK + CWIP 78018.71 84152.30 90567.06 18178.24 21399.47 16081.06
CAPEX 9356.66 9936.62 -72074.37 3536.69 -4654.49
CFO 7666.23 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39
DEFENSIVE INCOME (FCF) -1128.94 -1404.96 77186.38 -2762.62 7596.88

TOTAL CAPITAL = DEBT + EQ+ CASH 98125.00 99746.62 ### 34891.41 37738.53 36070.83
WACC Expectation 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
WACC INTEREST ON TOTAL CAPITAL 14718.75 14961.99 17054.04 5233.71 5660.78 5410.62
ENTERPRISE INCOME -14880.63 -13898.29 -15897.63 -5266.62 -5422.45 -5016.58
EPS 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19 8.98 6.89
Report Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ENTERPRISING EPS -126.37 -144.55 -47.89 -49.30 -45.61
DEFENSIVE EPS -10.26 -12.77 701.82 -25.12 69.08

S.no 2 3 4 5 6 7
Report Date Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
NET PROFIT 1612.98 2220.77 1948.05 1010.72 987.74 757.25
OTHER INCOME 1774.86 1157.07 791.64 1043.63 749.41 363.21
DEPRECIATION 2297.86 3223.07 3521.86 314.45 315.46 663.92
Net Block 48770.27 70578.70 83834.04 10473.30 13667.98 10555.19
Capital Work in Progress 29248.44 13573.60 6733.02 7704.94 7731.49 5525.87
Cash from Operating Activity 7666.23 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39
Equity Share Capital 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
Reserves 21285.91 23647.21 25617.83 13267.63 14025.99 14979.19
Borrowings 69331.83 71979.92 83570.64 19169.35 20845.72 17636.69
Investments 323.04 288.39 744.11 804.95 1041.75 1460.72
Cash & Bank 7074.24 3721.12 3651.04 1539.50 1715.09 1884.25
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
Create Value EPS DEFENSIVE EPS ENTER
& Self-fund 800.00

600.00

400.00

200.00

.49 5.49 7.49


0.00
Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan

-200.00

-400.00

but not self-funding

ES LTD
14785.03 17823.19 19663.07 53667.19
-906.26 3510.22 2377.02 35251.90
3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28
4142.18 -1056.66 1666.29 -33866.62

29219.77 34695.04 40699.39 72068.61


15% 15% 15% 15% Assumed to be 15%. Vary if necessary
4382.97 5204.26 6104.91 10810.29
-4170.05 -4938.41 -5676.58 -11045.84
6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06
2019 2020 2021 2022 min max abs min abs max
-37.92 -44.90 -51.61 -100.44 -144.55 -37.92 144.5502 37.9164 144.5502
37.66 -9.61 15.15 -307.93 -307.93 701.82 307.9344 701.822 701.822

8 9 10 11
Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
717.14 1138.17 922.64 776.56
504.22 872.32 494.31 1012.11
389.77 472.06 537.14 1247.78
9020.11 10476.46 10837.61 30122.77
5764.92 7346.73 8825.46 23544.42
3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28
109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
14645.96 16836.59 17048.59 22146.53
11243.20 12419.30 16227.06 41604.03
1511.35 1952.49 5502.94 4292.21
1709.28 3376.68 1810.82 3915.86
109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98
EPS DEFENSIVE EPS ENTERPRISING EPS

Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22


Altman Z-score is a measure of how
Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Working Capital INR Mil 123860 112964 179873 135638 125405 151841
Asset Turnover (Average) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6
Revenue INR Mil 463751 549472 644654 340084 365329 359239
Average total assests* ### ### ### 416794 476115 564053
Total liabilities* ### ### ### 415694 475015 562954
Net Sales* 463751 549472 644654 340084 365329 359239
Shares outstanding Mil 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100
Avg of max and min share price #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Market Cap* #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Operating Income INR Mil (EBIT) 60207 93827.8 124499 16835.9 19022.3 20377.1
Net Income INR Mil 16129.8 22207.7 19480.5 10107.2 9877.4 7572.5
Dividends INR per share 1.40 1.40 1.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
Retained earnings 14590 20668 17941 9667 9438 7133

Working Capital/avg total assets 0.11 0.10 0.14 0.33 0.26 0.27
Retained earnings/avg total assets 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
EBIT/avg total assets 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.04 0.04 0.04
Market Cap/Total liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Net Sales/avg total assets 0.41 0.47 0.49 0.82 0.77 0.64

Altman Z-score (1968 formula) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Altman Z-score for emerging markets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Altman Z-score for non-manufacturing industries #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
(Banks, airlines etc)

0.35 0.12

0.30 0.10

0.25
0.08

0.20
Retained earnings/avg total
assets 0.06
0.15 Working Capital/avg total
assets
0.04
0.10

0.02
0.05

0.00 0.00
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21 Apr/12 Dec
0.02
0.05

0.00 0.00
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21 Apr/12 Dec
a measure of how close a firm is to bankruptcy
Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
97028 95902 82196 59011
0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7
403787 434026 395371 694202
425362 468751 516167 ###
424262 467651 515067 ###
403787 434026 395371 694202
1100 1100 1100 1100
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! Note stock price data is for #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
19693 22943.9 25057 37136
7171.4 11381.7 9226.4 7765.6
0.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 * Same units and denomination as Revenue
6732 10282 8127 6666 retained earnings from the previous year are not taken into account

0.23 0.20 0.16 0.06


0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
0.95 0.93 0.77 0.68

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! >3 Safe from bankruptcy; Less than 3 but > 1.8 = Grey zone; Less than 1.8 = dis

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! >2.6 Safe from bankruptcy; Less than 2.6 but > 1.1 = Grey zone; Less than 1.1 =

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! >2.6 Safe from bankruptcy; Less than 2.6 but > 1.1 = Grey zone; Less than 1.1 =

0.12 1.00

0.90
0.10
0.80

0.70
0.08
0.60
EBIT/avg total assets
0.06 0.50
Market Cap/Total liabilities
0.40 Net Sales/avg total assets
0.04
0.30

0.20
0.02
0.10

0.00 0.00
Apr/12 Dec/14 Sep/17 Jun/20 Mar/23
0.02
0.10

0.00 0.00
Apr/12 Dec/14 Sep/17 Jun/20 Mar/23
ne; Less than 1.8 = distress

zone; Less than 1.1 = distress

zone; Less than 1.1 = distress


Dupont 5-step ROE Analysis with Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Inputs Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Net Income INR Mil 16130 22208 19481 10107 9877 7573 7171 11382
Tax Rate % 39% -64% 14% 7% 25% 23% 32% 29%
Pre-tax income (EBT) INR Mil 20052 16137 26634 10558 10789 4868 4587 11223
Operating Income INR Mil (EBIT) 60207 93828 124499 16836 19022 20377 19693 22944

Tax burden 80% 138% 73% 96% 92% 156% 156% 101%
Interest burden 33% 17% 21% 63% 57% 24% 23% 49%
Operating Margin 13.0% 17.1% 19.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.3%
Asset Turnover (Average) 0.41 0.47 0.49 0.82 0.77 0.64 0.95 0.93
Financial Leverage 5.23 4.97 5.08 3.12 3.37 3.74 2.88 2.77

Return on Equity % (as per Screener.in) 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 5% 5% 7%


Calculated Return on Equity 7.5% 9.3% 7.6% 7.6% 7.0% 5.0% 4.9% 6.7%

Tax burden Interest burden


180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22

Return on Equity % (as per Screener.in) Calculated Return on Equity


10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
3%
2%
1%
0%
Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
Mar/21 Mar/22 Net Income INR Mil Pre-tax income (EBT) INR Mil Operating Income INR Mil (EBIT)
9226 7766 140000
31% 50%
120000
10860 9521
25057 37136 100000

85% 82% 80000


43% 26%
60000
6.3% 5.3%
0.77 0.68 40000
3.01 4.56
20000

5% 3% 0
5.4% 3.5% Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22

Asset Turnover (Average) Financial Leverage


6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
Jan/22 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22

ity Operating Margin


25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
Jan/22 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
5.0%

0.0%
Jan/22 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22
come INR Mil (EBIT)

Jan/20 Jan/21 Jan/22

Jan/21 Jan/22

Jan/21 Jan/22
Jan/21 Jan/22
Data as on March of year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Income INR Mil 16,130 22,208 19,481 10,107 9,877
Total assets INR Mil ### ### ### 416,794 476,115
Return on assets 1.4% 1.9% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1%

Operating Cash Flow INR Mil 76662.3 82277.2 85316.6 51120.1 7740.7
Operating Cash Flow/ Total Assets* 6.85% 7.22% 0.59% 7.76% 8.49%
* Cash flow return on assests
Long-Term Debt (total liability - current liability) 906177.4 956271.3 1091885 324369.8 348717.1
Long-term Debt/ Total Assets 81% 81% 84% 78% 73%
Current Ratio 1.586 1.505 1.840 2.485 1.993
Gross Margin % 19% 22% 26% 10% 9%
Shares outstanding Mil 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100
Asset Turnover 0.4145407 0.465253 0.493163 0.815952 0.767312

Piotroski Score for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD 8/9 6/9 8/9 5/9
1.00
1.00 0.89 0.67 0.89 0.56
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Piotroski Score for ADANI ENTER


2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
7,573 7,171 11,382 9,226 7,766
564,053 425,362 468,751 516,167 ###
1.3% 1.7% 2.4% 1.8% 0.8%

29423.9 32359.2 24535.6 40433.1 13852.8

326158.8 258891.6 292558.9 332756.5 637505.6


58% 61% 62% 64% 63%
1.641 1.587 1.548 1.451 1.156
7% 8% 12% 11% 4%
1100 1100 1100 1100 1100
0.636888635 0.949278 0.92592 0.765975 0.683361

5/9 7/9 6/9 4/9 5/9


0.56 0.78 0.67 0.44 0.56

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

core for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD


In this sheet you can value the stock using the Graham n

Graham Number
The Graham number or Benjamin Graham number is a figure us
Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_number

Data derived from Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Data as on March of year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Diluted Earnings Per Share* 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19 8.98

Book Value Per Share INR (last reported) 202.3687

Current market price for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD 1750.45 Ensure market price and financials are for the same stock!!
Graham Number Stock is Margin of safety
Using 3Y average of Diluted EPS 197.88 Overvalued -785%
Using 5Y average of Diluted EPS 188.95 Overvalued -826%
Using 10Y average of Diluted EPS 223.75 Overvalued -682%

Reference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_number
Current price should not be more than 1½ times the book value las
However a multiplier of earnings below 15 could justify a correspondingl
As a rule of thumb we suggest that the product of the multiplier times th
(This figure corresponds to 15 times earnings and 1½ times book value. I

— Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, chapter 14

Graham Formula
The Benjamin Graham formula is an intrinsic value formula proposed by
Published in his book, The Intelligent Investor, Graham devised the form
As with any valuation formula, the final number is not designed to give a
Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham_formula

Data as on March of year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


1Y rolling growth growth in Diluted EPS 38% -12% -48% -2%
3Y rolling growth diluted EPS -14% -24%
5Y rolling growth diluted EPS
7Y rolling growth diluted EPS

Use the above data to enter the projected EPS growth rate for the next 5 years 7.00
EPS lasy FY 7.06
No-growth PE of a company 7 PE ratio of a company with 0% growth.
This guy (OSV) uses 7.http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/v
I don’t know what applies to Indian Stocks.
This VR article says 7 is fine: https://www.valueresearcho

Multiplier to be used for the EPS growth rate 1 Ben Grram used 2. That is 2 x 700%
OSV uses 1.5
VR articles uses 1

High Grade corporae bond yield 8.00% Ben Graham used 4.4% in 1974!
VR article suggests setting to FD rate as a risk-free return

Current yield on long-term corporate bonds 8.50% I am still searching for a reliable source of this. If not known, s

Graham formula (intrisic value) 93.03801

Current market price for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD 1750.45


Margin of safety -1781%
ock using the Graham number and Graham formula (scroll down)

Graham Number
ham number is a figure used in securities investing that measures a stock's so-called fair value
aham_number

ERPRISES LTD
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10Y Average Last 5Y average
6.89 6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06 10.99 7.84

als are for the same stock!!

½ times the book value last reported.


could justify a correspondingly higher multiplier of assets.
duct of the multiplier times the ratio of price to book value should not exceed 22.5.
gs and 1½ times book value. It would admit an issue selling at only 9 times earnings and 2.5 times asset value, etc.)

vestor, chapter 14

Graham Formula
c value formula proposed by investor and professor, Benjamin Graham, often referred to as the "father of value investing".
or, Graham devised the formula for investors to be able to quickly determine how rationally priced their stocks were.
mber is not designed to give a true value of a stock, but only to approximate its range of possible values
njamin_Graham_formula

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


-23% -5% 59% -19% -16%
-27% -11% 5% 7% 3%
-14% -20% -10% -2% -5%
-5% -12% -12%

percentage

Ben Graham used 8.5.


w.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/value-stocks-benjamin-graham-formula/
https://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyView.asp?str=27759

rate as a risk-free return

source of this. If not known, set it a bit above the risk-free rate
Last 3Y average
8.60

set value, etc.)

her of value investing".


heir stocks were.
1750.45 #REF!
Price Multiple Model
Calculate if the stock is overvalued or undervalued
Source: http://investexcel.net/how-to-calculate-if-a-stock-is-undervalued-or

Current price 1,750.45 Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Average annual Diluted EPS Growth over last 10Y -3%
Standard Deviation 32% If the standard deviation is as high than the average, the
Expected conservative EPS growth 15%

Forward PE* 40
PE each fi
Current EPS (last FY) 7.06 300
Current Dividend per share (last FY) 1.00
Expected conservative rate of return 15% 250

200
* Either take a 'guess' from the graph or you can get the forward PE estimtae from
morning star page for the stock 150

100

50

0
Apr/12 Aug/13 Dec/14 May/16

Expected EPS Growth


Year 0 7.06
Year 1 8.12
Year 2 9.34
Year 3 10.74
Total 3Y EPS 28.20

Expected Share Price in 3 Years 429.55


Dividend Payout Ratio 0.09
Total Dividends Per Share Over 3 Years 2.63
Expected Share Value at End of 3 Years 432.18
Present Share Value for Good Value 284.16 Stock is overvalued
Undervaluation could mean trouble too!
"Analysis is purely quantitative, and does not incorporate qualitative aspects that may lead to investors prefering the over valu
Thanks to Raghavendre Shenoy for suggesting this disclaimer.
lculate-if-a-stock-is-undervalued-or-overvalued/

n data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD

tion is as high than the average, the average is useless!

PE each financial year


300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Apr/12 Aug/13 Dec/14 May/16 Sep/17 Feb/19 Jun/20 Oct/21 Mar/23

Expected EPS Growth


Year 0 7.06
Year 1 8.12
Year 2 9.34
Year 3 10.74
Year 4 12.35
Year 5 14.20
Total 5Y EPS 54.75

Expected Share Price in 5 Years 568.08


Dividend Payout Ratio 0.07
Total Dividends Per Share Over 5 Years 3.85
Expected Share Value at End of 5 Years 571.94
Present Share Value for Good Value 284.35 Stock is overvalued

to investors prefering the over valued stock"


Valuation using sustainable growth rate
Before using please ensure both Analysis of screener.in data for ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
morning star and yahoo finance Money Control Data is for #REF!
data is for the same stock!

Year Price Max Price Min Shares Mil Earnings Per Share INR
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 14.67
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 20.19
2007 #REF! #REF! 1100 17.71
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 9.19
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 8.98
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 6.89
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 6.52
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 10.35
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 8.39
#REF! #REF! #REF! 1100 7.06
Average
Average Sustainable Growth rate 6%
CAGR 3Y 0% 3%
CAGR 5Y 0% -5%
CAGR 7Y 0% -12%
CAGR 9Y 0% -7%

Valuation with TTM EPS and DPS and their past CAGR's
CAGR that will be use to project growth rates
Select CAGR to be used CAGR 3Y 3%
Average Earnings Per Share INR
Last FY 14.67
1Y from now 15.06
2Y from now 15.47
3Y from now 15.88
4Y from now 16.31
5Y from now 16.75
6Y from now 17.20
7Y from now 17.66
8Y from now 18.13
9Y from now 18.62
10Y from now 19.12

Total Dividend over next 10Y 108.89


EPS 10Y from now 19.12 This calculation is similar to that done in 'Valuation-1' shee
Proected price after 10Y with average PE #DIV/0! Projected price after 10Y with median PE
Total gain #DIV/0! Total gain
Projected return #DIV/0! Projected return
Valuation with TTM BVS and projected EPS and DPS with average of past ROE and payout ratios
Average Earnings Per Share INR
Current projected (BVS is last FY) 12.54
1Y from now 13.28
2Y from now 14.07
3Y from now 14.90
4Y from now 15.79
5Y from now 16.72
6Y from now 17.71
7Y from now 18.76
8Y from now 19.87
9Y from now 21.05
10Y from now 22.30
Projected CAGR
5.92%

Total Dividend over next 10Y 15.13


Projected EPS 10Y from now 22.30
Proected price after 10Y #DIV/0! Projected price after 10Y with median PE
Total gain #DIV/0! Total gain
Projected return #DIV/0! Projected return

To find the actual return on investment based on parameters that influence sustainable growth, go to valuation-3
Source: http://www.aaii.com/computerized-investing/article/valuing-stocks-the-warren-buffett-way.touch

TERPRISES LTD Current price 1,750.45

Diluted Dividen Book Value Per Share INR PE high PE low ROE% Payout Ratio% Revenue INR Mil (S
1.40 194.54 8% 10% 463750.9
1.40 216.01 9% 7% 549472.2
1.40 233.93 8% 8% 644653.6
0.40 121.64 8% 4% 340083.8
0.40 128.53 7% 4% 365328.6
0.40 137.20 5% 6% 359239.2
0.40 134.17 5% 6% 403786.6
1.00 154.09 7% 10% 434025.6
1.00 156.02 5% 12% 395371.3
1.00 202.37 3% 14% 694201.8
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6% 8%

36% 15% -10%


20% 10% -13%
-5% -2% -10%
-3% 0% -7%

ill be use to project growth rates Average high PE Average low PE


36% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Diluted Dividend Per Share
1.40
1.90
2.58
3.50
4.75
6.45
8.75
11.88
16.12
21.88
29.69

r to that done in 'Valuation-1' sheet


Y with median PE #VALUE!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Diluted Dividen Book Value Per Share INR
1.01 194.54
1.07 206.07
1.14 218.28
1.21 231.21
1.28 244.91
1.35 259.42
1.43 274.79
1.52 291.07
1.61 308.32
1.70 326.59
1.80 345.94
Projected CAGR
5.92% 5.92%

Y with median PE #VALUE!


#VALUE!
#VALUE!

owth, go to valuation-3
n-buffett-way.touch

Net Income INR Mil Equity Share Capital Mil Growth Rate
16129.8 1099.8
22207.7 1099.8
19480.5 1099.8
10107.2 1099.8
9877.4 1099.8
7572.5 1099.8
7171.4 1099.8
11381.7 1099.8
9226.4 1099.8
7765.6 1099.8
Return on investment based on book value growth rate Source:
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08
Source:
Long-term Bond yield 7.98% http://www.investing.com/rates-bon

Year Book Yield Per Share Payout Ratio% Retention Ratio%


#REF! 0.08 0.10 0.90
#REF! 0.09 0.07 0.93
2007 0.08 0.08 0.92
#REF! 0.08 0.04 0.96
#REF! 0.07 0.04 0.96
#REF! 0.05 0.06 0.94
#REF! 0.05 0.06 0.94
#REF! 0.07 0.10 0.90
#REF! 0.05 0.12 0.88
#REF! 0.03 0.14 0.86
Average 0.06 0.08 0.92
Median 0.07 0.07 0.93

Choose Book value Growth rate 4% #N/A

Projection with avg BYS and Payout Ratio


Book Value Per Share INR Earnings Per Share INR Diluted Dividend Per
Last FY 194.54 12.54 1.01
1Y from now 202.53 13.06 1.06
2Y from now 210.84 13.59 1.10
3Y from now 219.50 14.15 1.14
4Y from now 228.51 14.73 1.19
5Y from now 237.89 15.33 1.24
6Y from now 247.65 15.96 1.29
7Y from now 257.82 16.62 1.34
8Y from now 268.40 17.30 1.40
9Y from now 279.42 18.01 1.46
10Y from now 290.88 18.75 1.52
CAGR 3.72% 3.72% 3.72%

Estimated CAGR of investment with different PE values


Choose Projection with median BYS and Payout Ratio
Lowest PE Highest PE Average PE
Historical
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
Projected CAGR with Lowest PE Highest PE Average PE
Investment at today's price -1,750.45 -1,750.45 -1,750.45
Dividend received 1Y from now 1.03 1.03 1.03
Dividend received 2Y from now 1.07 1.07 1.07
Dividend received 3Y from now 1.12 1.12 1.12
Dividend received 4Y from now 1.16 1.16 1.16
Dividend received 5Y from now 1.21 1.21 1.21
Dividend received 6Y from now 1.26 1.26 1.26
Dividend received 7Y from now 1.31 1.31 1.31
Dividend received 8Y from now 1.36 1.36 1.36
Dividend received 9Y from now 1.42 1.42 1.42
Future value (incl. Div) 10Y from now 1.48 1.48 #DIV/0!
IRR Err:523 Err:523 #DIV/0!
Sometimes IRR will give an error if it cannot calculate the return
r.pepperdine.edu/2010/08/the-buffett-approach-to-valuing-stocks/

ww.investing.com/rates-bonds/india-10-year-bond-yield-historical-data

Assumed Growth in Book Value


with avg BYS and RR 6% Sustainable Growth rate
with median BYS and RR 6%
historical 1Y average 3%
lower limit (hist avg- std.dev) -18%

Projection with median BYS and Payout Ratio


Earnings Per Share INR Diluted Dividend Per Share
13.33 0.99
13.88 1.03
14.45 1.07
15.04 1.12
15.66 1.16
16.30 1.21
16.97 1.26
17.67 1.31
18.39 1.36
19.15 1.42
19.93 1.48
3.72% 3.72%

Median PE
#VALUE!
Median PE
-1,750.45 negative sign signifies investment (necessary for IRR calcualtion)
1.03 These are the
1.07 dividends which
1.12 are assumed to be
1.16 received and not
1.21 reinvested. Such as
1.26 assumption is incorrect,
1.31 but should suffice for
1.36 estimation purposes
1.42
#VALUE!
#VALUE! Since entries are spaced an year apart, IRR = XIRR
Valuation using the Discounted Cash Flow Model Source:

Current price 1,750.45


Shares Mil outstanding 1100
Debt level in the last year 1 (see Notes for definition) Negative implies more cash than de
Year Diluted Dividend PROE% Payout Ratio% Growth Rate
#REF! 1.40 7.54% 9.55% 7%
#REF! 1.40 9.35% 6.93% 9%
2007 1.40 7.57% 7.90% 7%
#REF! 0.40 7.56% 4.35% 7%
#REF! 0.40 6.99% 4.45% 7%
#REF! 0.40 5.02% 5.81% 5%
#REF! 0.40 4.86% 6.13% 5%
#REF! 1.00 6.72% 9.66% 6%
#REF! 1.00 5.38% 11.92% 5%
#REF! 1.00 3.49% 14.16% 3%
3Y Average 1.00 5.19% 11.92% 5%
5Y Average 0.76 5.09% 9.54% 5%
7Y Average 0.66 5.71% 8.07% 5%
10Y Average 0.88 6.45% 8.09% 6%

Next 3Y average Dividends pe 1.05 Initial Cash Flow 81


Next 5Y average Dividends pe 0.80
Next 7Y average Dividends pe 0.69 What is the rate at which you would like to discount future
Next 10Y average Dividends p 0.93 Technically this should be equal to the weighted average c
3Y Cost of Equity* 4.64% This is (according to wikipedia), the minimum return that a
5Y Cost of Equity 4.65% on an existing asset base to satisfy its creditors, owners, a
10Y Cost of Equity 5.29% capital, or they will invest elsewhere. The WACC is difficult
10Y Cost of Equity 5.98% So you will need to guess the discount rate conservatively
* Also known as required rate of return Margin of Safety 25%

Discounted Cash Flow projections (choose FCF growth rate in green cells) DCF projections beyond 10Y may no
Year FCF Growth Rate Free Cash Flow Present Value
1 5% 85 76
2 5% 89 71
3 5% 94 67
4 5% 98 63
5 5% 103 59
6 5% 109 55 Terminal year for 5Y projectio
7 5% 114 52
8 5% 120 48
9 5% 126 45
10 5% 132 42
11 5% 139 40 Terminal year for 10Y projectio
12 5% 145 37
13 5% 153 35
14 5% 160 33
15 5% 168 31
16 5% 177 29 Terminal year for 15Y projectio
17 5% 186 27
18 5% 195 25
19 5% 205 24
20 5% 215 22
Terminal year for 20Y projectio
http://www.focusinvestor.com/index.php/articles.html
http://www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/

ve implies more cash than debt


Free Cash Flow INR Mil
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 Use this as reference for FCF growth rate
0 FCF Last 3Y growth rate #DIV/0!
0 FCF Last 5Y growth rate #DIV/0!
0 FCF Last 7Y growth rate #DIV/0!
0 FCF Last 9 growth rate

#N/A

u would like to discount future cash flow to present values?


ual to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
a), the minimum return that a company must earn
satisfy its creditors, owners, and other providers of
ewhere. The WACC is difficult to compute.
discount rate conservatively 12%

ojections beyond 10Y may not be of much use!

After 5Y, 10Y, 15Y or 20Y, if we assume the growth will saturate,
the growth rate at this point is the terminal growth rate

Growth rate in terminal year FCF in terminal year PV of Cash flow


Terminal year for 5Y projection 5% 108.55 335

erminal year for 10Y projection -10% 118.75 578


erminal year for 15Y projection -10% 151.55 754

erminal year for 20Y projection 0% 214.92 881


Year average Dividends per share Price Max
#REF! #REF!
#REF! 1.52 #REF!
2007 1.50 #REF!
#REF! 0.43 #REF!
#REF! 0.43 #REF!
#REF! 0.42 #REF!
#REF! 0.42 #REF!
#REF! 1.06 #REF!
#REF! 1.05 #REF!
#REF! 1.03 #REF!

Terminal Value Total cash flow PV DCF value per share


879.90 1215 1.10

173.79 752 0.68


125.86 879 0.80

185.66 1066 0.97


Price Min Max Cost of Equity Min Cost of Equity Avg Cost of Equity
#REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

The price at or below which you can buy


DCF value per share with margin of safety
0.83

0.51
0.60

0.73
Valuation using the Reverse Discounted Cash Flow Model

Current price 1,750.45


Shares Mil outstanding 1099.8
Debt level in the last year 1 (see Notes for definition)
Year Diluted Dividend Per Share ROE%
#REF! 1.39998181487543 7.54%
#REF! 1.39998181487543 9.35%
2007 1.39998181487543 7.57%
#REF! 0.399981814875432 7.56%
#REF! 0.399981814875432 6.99%
#REF! 0.399981814875432 5.02%
#REF! 0.399981814875432 4.86%
#REF! 1 6.72%
#REF! 1 5.38%
#REF! 1 3.49%
3Y Average 1.00 5.19%
5Y Average 0.76 5.09%
7Y Average 0.66 5.71%
10Y Average 0.88 6.45%

Next 3Y average Dividends per share 1.05


Next 5Y average Dividends per share 0.80
Next 7Y average Dividends per share 0.69
Next 10Y average Dividends per share 0.93
3Y Cost of Equity* 4.64%
5Y Cost of Equity 4.65%
10Y Cost of Equity 5.29%
10Y Cost of Equity 5.98%
* Also known as required rate of return

Discounted Cash Flow projections (choose FCF growth rate in green cells)
Year FCF Growth Rate Free Cash Flow
1 127.28% 260
2 127.28% 590
3 127.28% 1341
4 127.28% 3049
5 127.28% 6929

After 5Y, if we assume the growth will saturate,


the growth rate at this point is the terminal growth rate

Growth rate in terminal year If you wish to


projected gro
should b
If you wish to
Terminal year for 5Y projection 5% projected gro
FCF in terminal year 7271.84
should b
PV of Cash flow 7527
Terminal Value 58467.95
Total cash flow PV 65995
DCF value per share 60.01
When you click on the black button,
Current price will be equal to DCF value per share with margin of safety
DCF value per share with margin of safety 45.00
For this to happen, the FCF growth rate for next 5 years should be 127.28%
Source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental-analysis/09/reverse-discount-ca

Notes for definition) Negative implies more cash than debt


Payout Ratio% Growth Rate Free Cash Flow INR Mil
9.55% 7% 0
6.93% 9% 0
7.90% 7% 0
4.35% 7% 0
4.45% 7% 0
5.81% 5% 0
6.13% 5% 0
9.66% 6% 0
11.92% 5% 0
14.16% 3% 0
11.92% 5% 0
9.54% 5% 0
8.07% 5% 0
8.09% 6% 0

Initial Cash Flow 114 #N/A

What is the rate at which you would like to discount future cash flow to present values?
Technically this should be equal to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
This is (according to wikipedia), the minimum return that a company must earn
on an existing asset base to satisfy its creditors, owners, and other providers of
capital, or they will invest elsewhere. The WACC is difficult to compute.
So you will need to guess the discount rate conservatively
Margin of Safety 25%

n cells)
Present Value
232
470
955
1938
3932

If you wish to buy at current price, the


projected growth rate in free cash flow
should be: (Click to find out)
If you wish to buy at current price, the
projected growth rate in free cash flow
should be: (Click to find out)
undamental-analysis/09/reverse-discount-cash-flow.asp

Use this as reference for FCF growth rate


FCF Last 3Y growth rate #DIV/0!
FCF Last 5Y growth rate #DIV/0!
FCF Last 7Y growth rate #DIV/0!
FCF Last 9 growth rate

12%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Trailing
Sales 46,375 54,947 64,465 34,008 36,533 35,924 40,379 43,403 39,537 69,420 ###
% Growth YOY 18% 17% -47% 7% -2% 12% 7% -9% 76%
Expenses 40,354 45,564 52,015 32,325 34,631 33,886 38,409 41,108 37,031 65,707 ###
Material Cost (% of Sales) 73% 70% 66% 83% 85% 86% 84% 79% 75% 83% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11% 12% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3%
Operating Profit 6,021 9,383 12,450 1,684 1,902 2,038 1,969 2,294 2,506 3,714 6,503
Operating Profit Margin 13% 17% 19% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Other Income 1,775 1,157 792 1,044 749 363 504 872 494 1,012 1,103
Other Income as % of Sales 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 3.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.2% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Depreciation 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664 390 472 537 1,248 1,989
Interest 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250 1,625 1,572 1,377 2,526 3,066
Interest Coverage(Times) 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2
Profit before tax (PBT) 2,005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487 459 1,122 1,086 952 2,551
% Growth YOY -20% 65% -60% 2% -55% -6% 145% -3% -12%
PBT Margin 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2%
Tax 788 -1,032 365 78 271 112 145 324 340 477 809
Net profit 1,218 2,646 2,298 978 808 375 314 798 746 475 1,741
% Growth YOY 117% -13% -57% -17% -54% -16% 154% -6% -36%
Net Profit Margin 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
EPS 11.1 24.1 20.9 8.9 7.3 3.4 2.9 7.3 6.8 4.3 15.3
% Growth YOY 117% -13% -57% -17% -54% -16% 154% -6% -36%
Price to earning 6.5 5.5 10.5 5.5 9.9 30.7 51.4 19.0 152.0 466.1 114.6
Price 72 131 220 49 73 105 147 138 1,031 2,015 1,750
Dividend Payout 9.5% 6.9% 7.9% 4.4% 4.5% 5.8% 6.1% 9.7% 11.9% 14.2%
Market Cap 7,945 14,461 24,180 5,423 7,977 11,493 16,140 15,133 ### ###
Retained Earnings 1,101 2,462 2,116 935 772 353 295 721 657 408
Buffett's $1 Test 21.8

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS


Sales Growth 4.6% 1.1% 13.7% 19.8%
PBT Growth -7.9% -13.7% -2.5% 27.6%
PBT Margin 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 2.2%
Price to Earning 75.7 104.9 143.8 212.3

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Sales 9,126 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YOY 45% 61% 84% 225% 189% 42%
Expenses 8,361 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Operating Profit 765 772 904 796 883 772 1,262 1,742 1,869 1,629
Other Income 186 88 -16 152 379 206 276 222 266 339
Depreciation 124 132 156 126 320 354 449 417 531 592
Interest 304 323 436 443 754 708 622 915 934 596
Profit before tax 524 404 296 380 189 -84 468 632 670 780
PBT Margin 6% 3% 2% 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3%
% Growth YOY -64% -121% 58% 67% 255% ###
Tax 124 118 86 183 67 14 213 222 231 143
Net profit 362 297 234 271 212 -12 304 469 461 820
% Growth YOY -41% -104% 30% 73% 117% ###
OPM 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6%
Excel Sheet Made by Amol
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
(all figures in Rs crores) BALANCE SHEET COMMON SIZE BALANCE SHEET
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Equity Share Capital 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 21,286 23,647 25,618 13,268 14,026 14,979 14,646 16,837 17,049 22,147 19% 20% 20% 32% 29% 27% 34% 36% 33% 22%
Borrowings 69,332 71,980 83,571 19,169 20,846 17,637 11,243 12,419 16,227 41,604 62% 61% 64% 46% 44% 31% 26% 26% 31% 41%
Trade Payables (Manually copy from Screener.in) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Liabilities 21,143 22,365 21,420 9,132 12,630 23,679 16,537 17,509 18,231 37,726 19% 19% 16% 22% 27% 42% 39% 37% 35% 37%
TOTAL LIABILITIES 111,871 118,102 130,718 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 101,586 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Net Block 48,770 70,579 83,834 10,473 13,668 10,555 9,020 10,476 10,838 30,123 44% 60% 64% 25% 29% 19% 21% 22% 21% 30%
Capital Work in Progress 29,248 13,574 6,733 7,705 7,731 5,526 5,765 7,347 8,825 23,544 26% 11% 5% 18% 16% 10% 14% 16% 17% 23%
Cash & Bank 7,074 3,721 3,651 1,540 1,715 1,884 1,709 3,377 1,811 3,916 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4% 4%
Investments 323 288 744 805 1,042 1,461 1,511 1,952 5,503 4,292 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 11% 4%
Inventory 3,733 3,924 4,082 1,300 1,652 2,343 2,669 2,562 1,757 6,788 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3% 7%
Receivables 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099 14,307 13,147 11,983 13,712 8% 9% 12% 24% 27% 21% 34% 28% 23% 13%
Loans & Advances (Manually copy from Screener.in) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 13,720 15,904 16,355 9,669 9,062 22,538 7,555 8,014 10,900 19,211 12% 13% 13% 23% 19% 40% 18% 17% 21% 19%
TOTAL ASSETS 111,871 118,102 130,718 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 101,586 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

FUND FLOW ANALYSIS


5 YEAR 1 YEAR
Equity Share Capital - -
Reserves 8,121 5,098
Borrowings 20,758 25,377
Trade Payables - -
Other Liabilities 25,096 19,495
TOTAL CHANGE IN LIABILITIES 53,975 49,970

Net Block + WIP 32,268 34,004


Cash & Bank 2,201 2,105
Investments 3,250 -1,211
Inventory 5,136 5,031
Receivables 970 1,730
Loans & Advances - -
Other Assets 10,149 8,310
TOTAL CHANGE IN ASSETS 53,975 49,970

FROM THE LIABILITY SIDE RETURN ON AVERAGE INVESTED CAPITAL (ROIC)


Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Operating EBIT 3,723 6,160 8,928 1,369 1,587 1,374 1,580 1,822 1,969 2,466 Median Min Max
Effective Tax Rate 39% -64% 14% 7% 25% 23% 32% 29% 31% 50% 27% -64% 50%
Operating EBIAT 2,260 10,099 7,703 1,268 1,188 1,057 1,082 1,296 1,353 1,231

Invested Capital from the Liability Side of Balance Sheet = (Book Value of Equity + Book Value of Debt - Cash)
Invested Capital 83,653 92,016 105,647 31,007 33,267 30,842 24,290 25,989 31,575 59,945
Average Invested Capital 87,835 98,832 68,327 32,137 32,054 27,566 25,140 28,782 45,760
Median Min Max
ROIC (EBIAT / Average Invested Capital) 11% 8% 2% 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 2% 11%
with DuPont breakup
EBIAT/Sales 18% 12% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 18%
Sales/Av Invested Capital 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.5 1.7

FROM THE ASSET SIDE RETURN ON AVERAGE INVESTED CAPITAL (ROIC)


The section below breaks down ROIC into various components and thus allows us to use just one ratio-ROIC to measure it ALL operational parameters!
However it is helpful if you read a short note on this before using this section. Click HERE to read this short note
Please Manually Input the Trade Payables Data in 'Row 8' above from Screener.in BEFORE using this section

DATA NEEDED TO CALCULATE ROIC FROM THE ASSET SIDE


Net Working Capital 12,736 14,037 19,401 11,487 14,394 14,441 16,976 15,709 13,740 20,500
Average Net Working Capital 13,386 16,719 15,444 12,940 14,417 15,709 16,342 14,724 17,120
Median Min Max
Av Working Capital/Sales 24% 26% 45% 35% 40% 39% 38% 37% 25% 37% 24% 45%
Av Working Capital Turnover 4.1 3.9 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 4.1 2.7 2.2 4.1

Fixed Asset 78,019 84,152 90,567 18,178 21,399 16,081 14,785 17,823 19,663 53,667
Average Fixed Assets 81,086 87,360 54,373 19,789 18,740 15,433 16,304 18,743 36,665

Av Fixed Assets/Sales 148% 136% 160% 54% 52% 38% 38% 47% 53% 53% 38% 160%
Av Fixed Asset Turnover 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 0.6 2.7

Average Invested Capital from the Asset Side of Balance Sheet = Average Net Block & CWIP + Average Net Working Capital
Average Invested Capital 94,472 104,078 69,817 32,729 33,158 31,142 32,646 33,467 53,785

RETURN ON AVERAGE INVESTED CAPITAL (ROIC) with DETAILED BREAK-UP


Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Median Min Max Chart of Op. EBIT Margin
Operating EBIT Margin 11% 14% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 14%
Gross Margin 25% 27% 11% 10% 10% 11% 13% 12% 11%
- SG&A & Others -8% -8% -6% -5% -5% -6% -8% -6% -6%
- Depreciation -6% -5% -1% -1% -2% -1% -1% -1% -2%
Chart of Sales/Av Invested Capital
Sales/Av Invested Capital 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.3
Sales/Av Invested Capital is further broken down into Fixed Asset Turnover and Working Capital Turnover as below:

Av Fixed Asset Turnover 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.9

Av Working Capital Turnover 4.1 3.9 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 4.1
Average Inventory Days 25 23 29 15 20 23 22 20 22 Note: Inventory Days and Payable Days are calculated using Sales & not COGS
Average Receivable Days 63 72 137 115 126 119 115 116 68
Average Payable Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Average Working Capital Cycle Days 89 95 166 129 146 142 137 136 90
Median Min Max Chart of ROIC Pre-Tax
ROIC Pre-Tax 7% 9% 2% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 2% 9%

Effective Tax Rate -64% 14% 7% 25% 23% 32% 29% 31% 50%
ROIC 11% 7% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 4% 2% 11%

NOTES:
1) The formula used for breaking up ROIC into its components is given in the adjacent image

2) To correctly calculate ROIC you need to several adjustments such as Identifying operating assets,
Capitalizing Operating & Financial Expenses, removing one-time & extra-ordinary items, adjusting taxes, etc
These adjustments are ESSENTIAL to get a correct measurement of ROIC or any other return such as ROE, ROA,
ROCE, etc. However, to do the same we need more granular level data from the Annual Report
HENCE, ROIC calculated without adjustments are ROUGH ESTIMATES of the actual return
Balance Sheet
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Equity Share Capital 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
Reserves 21,286 23,647 25,618 13,268 14,026 14,979 14,646 16,837 17,049 22,147
Borrowings 69,332 71,980 83,571 19,169 20,846 17,637 11,243 12,419 16,227 41,604
Other Liabilities 21,143 22,365 21,420 9,132 12,630 23,679 16,537 17,509 18,231 37,726
Total ### ### ### 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 ###

Net Block 48,770 70,579 83,834 10,473 13,668 10,555 9,020 10,476 10,838 30,123
Capital Work in Progress 29,248 13,574 6,733 7,705 7,731 5,526 5,765 7,347 8,825 23,544
Investments 323 288 744 805 1,042 1,461 1,511 1,952 5,503 4,292
Other Assets 33,529 33,661 39,407 22,696 25,170 38,864 26,240 27,099 26,451 43,627
Total ### ### ### 41,679 47,611 56,405 42,536 46,875 51,617 ###

Working Capital 12,386 11,296 17,987 13,564 12,540 15,184 9,703 9,590 8,220 5,901
Debtors 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099 14,307 13,147 11,983 13,712
Inventory 3,733 3,924 4,082 1,300 1,652 2,343 2,669 2,562 1,757 6,788
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 71 67 87 109 127 123 129 111 111 72


Inventory Turnover 12 14 16 26 22 15 15 17 23 10
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.0 0.8 0.8 3.2 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.1 3.6 2.3
Debt/Equity 3.2 3.0 3.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.9
Return on Equity 6% 11% 9% 7% 6% 2% 2% 5% 4% 2%
Return on Capital Employed 6% 8% 9% 7% 7% 5% 8% 9% 7% 5%
Cash Flow Statement
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942 3,236 2,454 4,043 1,385 44,372
% Growth YoY 7% 4% -40% -85% 280% 10% -24% 65% -66%
Cash from Investing Activity ### -8,007 ### -1,825 -1,460 -7,649 2,487 -1,082 -8,611 ### -69,442
Cash from Financing Activity 7,199 -1,109 3,445 -3,448 716 5,120 -6,158 -221 3,109 15,901 24,554
Net Cash Flow 75 -888 512 -161 30 413 -436 1,151 -1,459 246 -516
CFO/Sales 17% 15% 13% 15% 2% 8% 8% 6% 10% 2%
CFO/Net Profit 630% 311% 371% 523% 96% 785% 1030% 307% 542% 291%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 7,351 8,016 8,168 4,547 167 2,005 2,080 816 2,805 561 36,516
Average FCF (3 Years) 1,394
FCF Growth YoY 9% 2% -44% -96% 1100% 4% -61% 244% -80%
FCF/Sales 16% 15% 13% 13% 0% 6% 5% 2% 7% 1%
FCF/Net Profit 456% 361% 419% 450% 17% 265% 290% 72% 304% 72%

** Manually enter this number;


Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD

DELTA DELTA
NETWORTH MKTCAP IMPACT*
10 YR 861 213637 248.24
7 YR 8879 216159 24.35
5 YR 7167 210089 29.31
3 YR 5310 206449 38.88
1 YR 5098 108176 21.22
* IMPACT – Every Rupee retained added xx.yy in incremental market value

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD SALES GROSS PROFIT EBIT PAT


10 YR CAGR 4.58% -0.62% -4.96% -7.80%
5 YR CAGR 17.90% 22.93% 18.95% 0.63%
3 YR CAGR 26.47% 14.02% 13.61% -17.40%
1 YR GROWTH 75.58% 20.76% 41.22% -15.83%
**modify (if, then) for negative values
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Total Assets/Networth= Financial Leverage 5.23 4.97 5.08 3.12
Long term debt/Earning 42.98 32.41 42.90 18.97
Current liablility/Earning 13.11 10.07 11.00 9.04
Total liability/Earning 56.09 42.48 53.90 28.00
Debt/Equity 3.24 3.03 3.25 1.43
Interest Coverage 1.57 1.28 1.38 1.78
Working Capital/Sales 26.71% 20.56% 27.90% 39.88%
Inventory Turns 12.42 14.00 15.79 26.16
Inventory Days 29 26 23 14
Debtor Days 71 67 87 109
Creditor Days
Cash Conversion Cycle
Cash In/Cash Out Ratio 0.76 0.62 0.89 1.28
Current Ratio 1.59 1.51 1.84 2.49
CFO/PAT 4.75 3.70 4.38 5.06

Gross Margin =Gross Profit/Sales 26.83% 30.10% 34.05% 17.09%


EBIT/Sales 11.85% 13.32% 15.08% 7.09%
EBITDA/Sales 16.81% 19.18% 20.54% 8.02%
Op Profit (Ex Other Income)/Sales 12.98% 17.08% 19.31% 4.95%
Net Margin =PAT/Sales 3.48% 4.04% 3.02% 2.97%
Op Cash Flow/Sales 16.53% 14.97% 13.23% 15.03%
Free Cash Flow/Sales 0.00% -2.05% -2.18% 226.96%
EPA/Sales -16.19% 0.99% -7.20% -4.63%

Sales/Invested Capital =Capital Turns 0.51 0.58 0.59 1.07


Sales/Fixed Assets= Fixed Asset Turns 0.95 0.78 0.77 3.25
Sales/Total Assets= Asset Turns 0.41 0.47 0.49 0.82
Net Margin*Asset Turns= RoA 1.44% 1.88% 1.49% 2.42%
Net Margin*Asset Turn*Fin Leverage= RoE 7.54% 9.35% 7.57% 7.56%
RoCE 6.06% 7.64% 8.89% 7.41%
EBIT Margin*Cap Turns*(1-Tax rate)= RoIC 3.69% 12.57% 7.73% 7.04%

Altman Z-Score 0.77 0.88 1.03 1.51


Dividend Payout 9.55% 6.93% 7.90% 4.35%
Cash/Assets 6.32% 3.15% 2.79% 3.69%
EBIT/Invested Capital 6.08% 7.67% 8.95% 7.60%
EPA -7510.37 541.71 -4640.28 -1574.39
MktCap 7945 14461 24180 5423
MktCap Change 6516 9719 -18757
MktCap Change - EPA 5974.60 14359.21 -17182.70

Capex/Net Profits 10 yr -113%


Capex/Net Profits 7 yr -522%
Capex/Net Profits 5 yr 825%
Capex/Net Profits 3 yr 1450%
Capex/Depreciation 10 yr -105%
HISTORICAL VALUATIONS
P/E P/B EV/EBITDA P/SALES YIELD
MIN 4.93 0.37 7.63 0.16 1.94%
MAX 285.34 9.96 54.86 3.19 0.05%
TRAILING 97.12 8.97 54.86 2.87 0.06%

DIVIDEND EPA** MKTCAP CFO** FCF** NETWORTH TOTAL RETURNS


-3.67% -3.58% 44.75% -17.31% 52.98% 0.44% 44.45%
25.74% 22.35% 109.54% -17.17% #NUM! 10.20% 109.37%
0.00% 98.48% 282.65% -24.86% 466.13% 14.60% 281.36%
0.00% 227.31% 95.39% -65.74% -2132.46% 29.71% 95.30%

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22


3.37 3.74 2.88 2.77 3.01 4.56
21.10 23.29 15.68 10.91 17.59 53.57
12.79 31.27 23.06 15.38 19.76 48.58
33.89 54.56 38.74 26.30 37.35 102.16
1.47 1.17 0.76 0.73 0.95 1.87
1.86 1.39 1.28 1.71 1.79 1.38
34.33% 42.27% 24.03% 22.10% 20.79% 8.50% Check for improving or deteriorating picture
22.12 15.34 15.13 16.94 22.50 10.23
17 24 24 22 16 36
127 123 129 111 111 72
Check back to see if Creditor policy change is

1.14 0.59 0.97 0.94 0.76 0.47


1.99 1.64 1.59 1.55 1.45 1.16
0.78 3.89 4.51 2.16 4.38 1.78

15.29% 14.34% 16.24% 20.86% 24.65% 16.95%


6.39% 4.84% 5.16% 6.21% 6.23% 5.01%
7.26% 6.68% 6.13% 7.30% 7.59% 6.81%
5.21% 5.67% 4.88% 5.29% 6.34% 5.35%
2.70% 2.11% 1.78% 2.62% 2.33% 1.12%
2.12% 8.19% 8.01% 5.65% 10.23% 2.00%
-7.56% 21.15% 10.26% -2.43% 4.21% -48.78%
-6.36% -6.72% -3.74% -3.16% -4.18% -7.80%

1.08 1.15 1.65 1.58 1.42 1.17


2.67 3.40 4.48 4.14 3.65 2.30
0.77 0.64 0.95 0.93 0.77 0.68
2.07% 1.34% 1.69% 2.43% 1.79% 0.76% Check back what is really driving RoA (Net M
6.99% 5.02% 4.86% 6.72% 5.38% 3.49% Check back what is really driving RoE (Net M
6.68% 5.31% 8.01% 9.18% 7.38% 5.45%
5.15% 4.28% 5.83% 6.99% 6.07% 2.92% Check back what is really driving RoIC (Op M

1.37 1.20 1.63 1.59 2.45 2.18


4.45% 5.81% 6.13% 9.66% 11.92% 14.16%
3.60% 3.34% 4.02% 7.20% 3.51% 3.85%
6.88% 5.56% 8.51% 9.83% 8.83% 5.84% Check back the significant role of EBIT/Inves
-2323.76 -2414.82 -1511.33 -1373.65 -1653.38 -5411.63 Check back what is really driving EPA (Invest
7977 11493 16140 15133 113406 221582
2554 3516 4647 -1006 98273 108176
4877.50 5930.88 6157.99 367.34 99926.01 113587.96
PRE-TAX BOND
LongTerm Bond 9%
LTB Quote 0.25
Equity Quoting @ 3.26%

for improving or deteriorating picture

back to see if Creditor policy change is impacting Working Cap cycle

back what is really driving RoA (Net Margins or Asset Turns, or both)
back what is really driving RoE (Net Margins, Asset Turns, or Financial Leverage)

back what is really driving RoIC (Op Margins or Capital Turns, or both)

back the significant role of EBIT/Invested Capital


back what is really driving EPA (Invested Capital or RoIC, or both)
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD

Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


Gross Profit 12444.49 16538.52 21949.58 5812.57 5587.7 5152.84
Gross Margin 27% 30% 34% 17% 15% 14%
EBIT 5497.7 7316.78 9719.68 2412.77 2336.18 1737
EBITDA 7795.56 10539.85 13241.54 2727.22 2651.64 2400.92
Operating Profit (excl Other Income) 6020.7 9382.78 12449.9 1683.59 1902.23 2037.71
PAT 1612.98 2220.77 1948.05 1010.72 987.74 757.25
Dividend 153.97 153.97 153.97 43.99 43.99 43.99
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Networth 21395.89 23757.19 25727.81 13377.61 14135.97 15089.17
Working Capital 12385.97 11296.42 17987.28 13563.77 12540.47 15184.08
Invested Capital 90404.68 95448.72 108554.34 31742.01 33939.94 31265.14
Capital Employed 90727.72 95737.11 109298.45 32546.96 34981.69 32725.86
Total Assets 111871.02 118101.92 130718.19 41679.38 47611.47 56405.34
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Operating Cash Flow 7666.23 8227.72 8531.66 5112.01 774.07 2942.39
Capex 9356.66 9936.62 -72074.37 3536.69 -4654.49
Free Cash Flow -1128.94 -1404.96 77186.38 -2762.62 7596.88
Tax Rate 39% -64% 14% 7% 25% 23%
NOPLAT 3338.19 11995.56 8386.24 2234.65 1749.03 1336.99
RoIC 4% 13% 8% 7% 5% 4%
WACC 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
EPA (Economic Profit Added) -7510.37 541.71 -4640.28 -1574.39 -2323.76 -2414.82
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
MktCap 7944.96 14461.27 24180.20 5423.11 7976.85 11492.91
MktCap+Dividend 8098.93 14615.24 24334.17 5467.10 8020.84 11536.90
Retained Profit 1459.01 2066.8 1794.08 966.73 943.75 713.26
Shares Outstanding (Mn) 1099.81 1099.81 1099.81 1099.81 1099.81 1099.81
EPS 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19 8.98 6.89
EV 70202.55 82720.07 104099.80 23052.96 27107.48 27245.35
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Price/Earnings 4.93 6.51 12.41 5.37 8.08 15.18
Price/Book 0.37 0.61 0.94 0.41 0.56 0.76
Price/CashFlow 1.04 1.76 2.83 1.06 10.31 3.91
Price/Sales 0.17 0.26 0.38 0.16 0.22 0.32
EV/EBITDA 9.01 7.85 7.86 8.45 10.22 11.35
Dividend Yield 1.94% 1.06% 0.64% 0.81% 0.55% 0.38%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Working Capital/Total Assets 0.11 0.10 0.14 0.33 0.26 0.27
Retained Profits/Total Assets 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
EBIT/Total Assets 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.03
Market Cap/Total Liabilities 0.07 0.12 0.18 0.13 0.17 0.20
Sales/Total Assets 0.41 0.47 0.49 0.82 0.77 0.64
Altman Z-Score 0.77 0.88 1.03 1.51 1.37 1.20
Z > 2.99 -“Safe” Zones
1.81 < Z < 2.99 -“Grey” Zones
Z < 1.81 -“Distress” Zones

10 YEARS NUMBERS
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Sales 46,375 54,947 64,465 34,008 36,533 35,924
Receivables 9,002 10,113 15,319 10,187 12,742 12,099
% Sales 19% 18% 24% 30% 35% 34%
EBITDA 8,319 12,606 15,972 1,998 2,218 2,702
EBITDA % 18% 23% 25% 6% 6% 8%
Other Income 1,775 1,157 792 1,044 749 363
Depreciation 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664
Interest 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250
Profit before tax 2,005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487
Tax% 39% -64% 14% 7% 25% 23%
Tax 788 -1,032 365 78 271 112
Net Profit after Tax 1,613 2,221 1,948 1,011 988 757
NPM% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Cash from Operations 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942
Capex(NFA+WIP Change+Dep) 9,357 9,937 -72,074 3,537 -4,654

YoY Sales Growth (%) 18% 17% -47% 7% -2%


YoY Op. Profit Growth (%) 52% 27% -87% 11% 22%
Business Risk (Op. Leverage) 1.79 0.54 0.85 0.48 -14.09

Self Sustainable Growth Rate(SSGR) -2% -2% 6% 5% 1%


Growth in Sales 18% 17% -47% 7% -2%
Need for External Funds (Debt/Equity) YES YES NO YES NO
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) 4% 13% 8% 7% 5% 4%

Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


Capital Intensity (EBITDA / EBIT) 1.38 1.34 1.28 1.19 1.17 1.33
Net Fixed Assets Turns (Higher is be 0.95 0.78 0.77 3.25 2.67 3.40
Depreciation/NFA (consistency) 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 6%
Receivable days (Lower is better) 70.85 67.17 86.74 109.34 127.30 122.93
Inventory Turnover (Higher is bette 12.42 14.00 15.79 26.16 22.12 15.34
Working Capital Cycle 100.24 93.24 109.85 123.29 143.81 146.73

Net Fixed Assets 48770.27 70578.7 83834.04 10473.3 13667.98 10555.19


CWIP 29248.44 13573.6 6733.02 7704.94 7731.49 5525.87
Share Capital 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98

Dividend Paid (Div) without DDT 154 154 154 44 44 44


Dividend Payout (Div/PAT) 10% 7% 8% 4% 4% 6%
Retained Earnings (PAT-Div) 1459 2067 1794 967 944 713
Cash + Investments (CI+NCI) 7397 4010 4395 2344 2757 3345
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Total Debt(D) 69332 71980 83571 19169 20846 17637
Total Equity(E) 21396 23757 25728 13378 14136 15089
D/E 3.24 3.03 3.25 1.43 1.47 1.17
Cost of Funds 12%
Interest Outgo (Rs Cr) (Calculated) 8,320 8,638 10,028 2,300 2,501 2,116
Interest Coverage (Op/Int. Outgo) 1.00 1.46 1.59 0.87 0.89 1.28

Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


Cash from Operating Activity 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942
Cash from Investing Activity -14,790 -8,007 -11,465 -1,825 -1,460 -7,649
Cash from Financing Activity 7,199 -1,109 3,445 -3,448 716 5,120
Net Cash Flow 75 -888 512 -161 30 413
Cash & Eq at end of Year 7074 3721 3651 1540 1715 1884

Market Cap 7945 14461 24180 5423 7977 11493


P/B 0 1 1 0 1 1
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
6557.26 9052.36 9746.05 11768.86
16% 21% 25% 17%
2083.79 2694.65 2462.82 3477.93
2473.56 3166.71 2999.96 4725.71
1969.34 2294.39 2505.65 3713.6
717.14 1138.17 922.64 776.56
43.99 109.98 109.98 109.98
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
14755.94 16946.57 17158.57 22256.51
9702.76 9590.19 8219.62 5901.14
24487.79 27413.38 27882.69 59568.33
25999.14 29365.87 33385.63 63860.54
42536.18 46875.06 51616.72 101586.36
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
3235.92 2453.56 4043.31 1385.28
-906.26 3510.22 2377.02 35251.9
4142.18 -1056.66 1666.29 -33866.62
32% 29% 31% 50%
1427.20 1915.95 1692.54 1736.57
6% 7% 6% 3%
12% 12% 12% 12%
-1511.33 -1373.65 -1653.38 -5411.63
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 CURRENT
16139.57 15133.25 113405.88 221582.21 199551.5
16183.56 15243.23 113515.86 221692.19
673.15 1028.19 812.66 666.58
1099.81 1099.81 1099.81 1099.81
6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06
25673.49 24175.87 127822.12 259270.38
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34
1.09 0.89 6.61 9.96
4.99 6.17 28.05 159.95
0.40 0.35 2.87 3.19
10.38 7.63 42.61 54.86
0.27% 0.73% 0.10% 0.05%
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Z-Weights
0.23 0.20 0.16 0.06 1.2
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 1.4
0.05 0.06 0.05 0.03 3.3
0.38 0.32 2.20 2.18 0.6
0.95 0.93 0.77 0.68 1
1.63 1.59 2.45 2.18
MBERS
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Total 10 Yrs CAGR
40,379 43,403 39,537 69,420 464,991 5%
14,307 13,147 11,983 13,712 5%
35% 30% 30% 20%
2,359 2,766 3,043 4,961 -6%
6% 6% 8% 7%
504 872 494 1,012
390 472 537 1,248 12,983
1,625 1,572 1,377 2,526 27,216
459 1,122 1,086 952 -8%
32% 29% 31% 50%
145 324 340 477
717 1,138 923 777 12,092 -8%
2% 3% 2% 1%
3,236 2,454 4,043 1,385 44,372 -17%
-906 3,510 2,377 35,252 -13,666 18%
FCF 58,038
12% 7% -9% 76%
-13% 17% 10% 63% Avg Op. Lev
-2.02 1.31 -2.12 -0.17 -1.49

3% 6% 3% -2%
12% 7% -9% 76%Req. Funds ?
YES YES NO YES No
6% 7% 6% 3%

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22


1.20 1.21 1.21 1.34
4.48 4.14 3.65 2.30
4% 5% 5% 4%
129.33 110.56 110.62 72.10
15.13 16.94 22.50 10.23
153.45 132.11 126.84 107.79

9020.11 10476.46 10837.61 30122.77


5764.92 7346.73 8825.46 23544.42
109.98 109.98 109.98 109.98

44 110 110 110


6% 10% 12% 14%
673 1028 813 667 11,124
3221 5329 7314 8208
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
11243 12419 16227 41604
14756 16947 17159 22257
0.76 0.73 0.95 1.87

1,349 1,490 1,947 4,992 43,683


1.75 1.86 1.56 0.99

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Total 10 Yrs


3,236 2,454 4,043 1,385 44,372
2,487 -1,082 -8,611 -17,041 -69,442
-6,158 -221 3,109 15,901 24,554
-436 1,151 -1,459 246 -516
1709 3377 1811 3916

16140 15133 113406 221582


1 1 7 10
PETER LYNCH KPIs
Current Price 1,750
Cash Held Per Share 72
Dividend Paid 0.96
Dividend Payout (%) 14%
Current EPS 6.81
Cash EPS 12.15
Cash Yield on CMP 0.7%

A) NET PROFIT MARGIN 1.1%


B) ASSET TURNOVER 0.68
C) LEVERAGE 2.87
ROE = A X B X C 2.2%

Price/Earnings 256.97
Cash Adjusted P/E ratio 246.40
Price/Book Value 8.97
Dividend Yield 0.1%
Earnings Growth -15.8%
Inverse PEG 0.00

Growth Nos:
3 Year Sales CAGR 20%
3 Years Profit CAGR 3%
1 Year Sales Growth 76%
1 Year EBIT Growth 63%
1 Year Profit Growth -16%
RM/ Sales 83%
5 yr Avg RM/Sales 81%
Inventory/Sales 10%
5 yr Avg Inventory/Sales 12%

Debt:Equity 1.87
Networth 22,256.51
Long Term Debt 41,604.03
Cash & Bank Balance 3,915.86
Investments 4,292.21

Management Effectiveness:
Book Value 195.23
ROE 3%
ROCE 3%
Shares ( in Cr) 114.00
Margins:
Operating 7.1%
Net Profit 1.1%

Latest Earnings:
Net Profit (TTM) 1,223.09

Q1
-11.63
Q2 304.32
Q3 469.46
Q4 460.94

Last 5 Years: Sales


2014 35,923.92
2015 40,378.66
2016 43,402.56
2017 39,537.13
2018 69,420.18

Last 5 Years: Inventory


2014 2,342.56
2015 2,668.82
2016 13,146.53
2017 1,757.04
2018 6,788.28

Last 5 Years: RM
2014 30,771.08
2015 33,821.40
2016 34,350.20
2017 29,791.08
2018 57,651.32

Last 5 Years: EBIT


2014 2,701.63
2015 2,359.11
2016 2,766.45
2017 3,042.79
2018 4,961.38

Last 5 Years: Profits


2014 757.25
2015 717.14
2016 1,138.17
2017 922.64
2018 776.56

Last 5 Years: Dividends


2014 43.99
2015 43.99
2016 109.98
2017 109.98
2018 109.98

Last 5 Years: Op CF
2014 2,942.39
2015 3,235.92
2016 2,453.56
2017 4,043.31
2018 1,385.28

Debt: Equity
Debt FY2017 16,227.06
Debt FY2018 41,604.03
Equity FY2017 17,158.57
Equity FY2018 22,256.51
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD

Sales Other Income Depreciati


80000 2000 4000
70000 3500
60000 1500 3000
50000 2500
40000 1000 2000
30000 1500
20000 500 1000
10000 500
0 0 0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan

Gross Profit Gross Margin Operating Profit (


25000 40% Other Income
34%
35% 30% 14000
20000 30% 27% 25% 12000
15000 25% 21% 10000
20% 17% 15% 17%
10000 14% 16% 8000
15% 6000
5000 10% 4000
5% 2000
0 0% 0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan

EBITDA EBITDA Margin Operating Cash F


30%
16,000 8000
25%
12,000 20% 6000

8,000 15% 4000


10%
4,000 2000
5%
- 0% 0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan

Profit before tax Tax Percentage Shares Outstanding


3000 60% 1099.81
2500 40%
2000 20%
1500 0% 1099.81
1000 -20% Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

500 -40%
0 -60% 1099.81
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 -80% Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan

PAT PAT Margin EPS


2500 5% 25.00
2000 4% 20.00
1500 3% 15.00
1000 2% 10.00
500 1% 5.00
0 0% 0.00
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan
2500 5% 25.00
2000 4% 20.00
1500 3% 15.00
1000 2% 10.00
500 1% 5.00
0 0% 0.00
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan
Mar-17
Depreciation Quarterly Sales Sales (INR Cr) 36,533
4000 PAT (INR Cr) 988
3500 40,000.00
ROE (%) 7%
3000
30,000.00 PE (x) 8.08
2500
2000 20,000.00 PB (x) 0.56
1500
1000 Mcap (INR Cr) 7,977
10,000.00
500
0 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22
OCF as part of Sales
OCF as part of Profits
Operating Profit (excl Other Income
Other Income) 500.00
14000
12000
400.00 R
10000 300.00
180.00
8000
200.00
6000 160.00
4000 100.00
2000 140.00
0 -
120.00
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22
-100.00
100.00
80.00
Operating Cash Flow Quarterly EBITDA
60.00
8000 2,000.00
40.00
6000 1,500.00 20.00

4000 1,000.00 0.00


Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan
2000 500.00
Receivable day
0 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22
GROW
Shares Outstanding (Mn) Quarterly PBT SALES
1099.81 1,000.00 DIVIDEN
800.00
600.00
1099.81
400.00
200.00

1099.81 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22
-200.00

EPS Quarterly PAT


44.75%

22.93%
18.95%
17.90%

25.00 1,000.00
4.58%

0.63%

20.00 800.00
15.00 600.00 1 0 YR C AGR 5 YR C
-0.62%

-3.67%
-3.58%
-4.96%
-7.80%

10.00 400.00

5.00 200.00

0.00 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22
-200.00
25.00 1,000.00

18.95
17.90
4

22.9
4.58%

0.63%
20.00 800.00
15.00 600.00 1 0 YR C AGR 5 YR C

-0.62%

-3.67%
-3.58%
-4.96%
-7.80%
10.00 400.00

5.00 200.00

0.00 -
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22
-200.00
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Growth (x)
35,924 40,379 43,403 39,537 69,420 1.90 Shareholder funds
757 717 1,138 923 777 0.79 30000
5% 5% 7% 5% 3% 0.50 25000
15.18 22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34 35.33 20000
0.76 1.09 0.89 6.61 9.96 17.64 15000
11,493 16,140 15,133 113,406 221,582 27.78 10000
5000

10 Years 3 Years Total Retained Earnings (10 Yrs) 11,124 0


Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
10% 5% Total Mcap Increase (10 Yrs) 213,637
367% 278% Value created per INR of RE 19.20 Total Debt
80000
Receivable vs WCAP 60000

40000

20000

0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

Inventory Days
40
35
30
25
20
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 15
10
Receivable days (Lower is better) Working Capital Cycle 5
0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
GROWTH IN LAST 10 YEARS
Debtor Days
SALES GROSS PROFIT EBIT PAT
282.65%

DIVIDEND EPA** MKTCAP 140


120
100
227.31%

80
60
40
20
0
109.54%

Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21


98.48%

95.39%
75.58%

Receivable days
44.75%

41.22%
26.47%
25.74%
22.93%

22.35%

20.76%

140.00
18.95%
17.90%

14.02%
13.61%

120.00
0.63%

0.00%

0.00%

100.00
CAGR 5 YR C AG R 3 YR C AG R 1 YR G R OW TH 80.00
-3.67%
-3.58%

60.00
-15.83%
-17.40%

40.00
20.00
0.00
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
140.00

20.76
41
18.95

26.4
17.90

25.7
4

22.9

14.02
22.3

13.61
120.00

0.63%

0.00%

0.00%
100.00
CAGR 5 YR C AG R 3 YR C AG R 1 YR G R OW TH 80.00
-3.67%
-3.58%

60.00

-15.83%
-17.40%
40.00
20.00
0.00
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
Shareholder funds Cash from Operating Activ- RoIC
ity 14%
10,000 12%
8,000 10%
8%
6,000
6%
4,000 4%
2,000 2%
- 0%
Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

Total Debt Depreciation/NFA (consis- Net Margin*Asset Turn*Fin


tency) Leverage= RoE
7% 10.00%
6% 8.00%
5%
4% 6.00%
3% 4.00%
2%
1% 2.00%
0% 0.00%
Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

Inventory Days Capital Intensity (EBITDA / Net Margin =PAT/Sales


EBIT)
4.00%
1.40
1.35 3.00%
1.30
1.25 2.00%
1.20
1.15 1.00%
1.10
1.05 0.00%
an-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

Debtor Days Receivable as % Sales Assets Turns


40% 5.00
35%
4.00
30%
25% 3.00
20%
15% 2.00
10% 1.00
5%
0% 0.00
Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

Receivable days Interest Coverage Leverage (Debt/Equity)


2.00 3.50
3.00
1.50 2.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50 1.00
0.50
0.00 0.00
Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
2.00 3.50
3.00
1.50 2.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50 1.00
0.50
0.00 0.00
Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

Net Fixed Assets


80000

60000

40000

20000

0
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 J
C

7 Jan-19 Jan-21

set Turn*Fin
= RoE

17 Jan-19 Jan-21

PAT/Sales

17 Jan-19 Jan-21

urns

7 Jan-19 Jan-21

bt/Equity)

7 Jan-19 Jan-21
7 Jan-19 Jan-21

Net Fixed Assets

an-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21


25% Profit Margin Capital All
12%
Check for a rising trend a
20% 10% Numbers > 20% long term
has zero/marginal debt. C
8%
15%
6%
10%
4%
5% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 2%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21 Jan/13 Jan/15

Operating Margin PBT Margin


Net Margin RO

80,000
Revenue Revenue and P
200%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a r
70,000 pare growth
150%
60,000
50,000 100%
40,000 50%
30,000
0%
20,000 Jan/14 Jan/16
10,000 -50%
- -100%
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21
Revenue Gro
Net Profit Gr

3,000 Profit Over Time Operating an


10,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive num
2,500 which are rising over ti
8,000
2,000
6,000
1,500
4,000
1,000
500 2,000
- -
Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21 Jan/13 Jan/15

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash


Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Operating Margin 13% 17% 19% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6%
PBT Margin 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3%
Net Margin 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
ROE 6% 11% 9% 7% 6% 2% 2% 5% 4%
ROCE 6% 8% 9% 7% 7% 5% 8% 9% 7%

Revenue & Profit Growth


Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
Revenue Growth 18% 17% -47% 7% -2% 12% 7% -9% 76%
PBT Growth -20% 65% -60% 2% -55% -6% 145% -3% -12%
Net Profit Growth 117% -13% -57% -17% -54% -16% 154% -6% -36%

Revenue & Profit


Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Revenue 46,375 54,947 64,465 34,008 36,533 35,924 40,379 43,403 39,537
PBT 2,005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487 459 1,122 1,086
Net Profit 1,218 2,646 2,298 978 808 375 314 798 746

Cash Flows
Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Operating Cash Flow 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942 3,236 2,454 4,043
Free Cash Flow 7,351 8,016 8,168 4,547 167 2,005 2,080 816 2,805
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year

Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)


Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility. Com-
pare growth rates with a close competitor.

Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20 Jan/22

Revenue Growth PBT Growth


Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow


0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0
0
0
0

Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow


Mar/22
5%
1%
1%

Mar/22
2%
5%

Mar/22
69,420
952
475

Mar/22
1,385
561
Annual
Growth% 18% 17% -47% 7%
Exp as Sales% 87% 83% 81% 95% 95%
OPM % 13.0% 17.1% 19.3% 5.0% 5.2%
Tax % 39% -64% 14% 7% 25%
NPM % 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%

Narration Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17


Sales 46,375.09 54,947.22 64,465.36 34,008.38 36,532.86
Expenses 40,354.39 45,564.44 52,015.46 32,324.79 34,630.63
Operating Profit 6,020.70 9,382.78 12,449.90 1,683.59 1,902.23
Other Income 1,774.86 1,157.07 791.64 1,043.63 749.41
Depreciation 2,297.86 3,223.07 3,521.86 314.45 315.46
Interest 3,492.47 5,703.04 7,056.29 1,356.99 1,257.31
Profit before tax 2,005.23 1,613.74 2,663.39 1,055.78 1,078.87
Tax 787.66 -1,031.92 365.39 77.94 271.15
Net profit 1,612.98 2,220.77 1,948.05 1,010.72 987.74
EPS 14.67 20.19 17.71 9.19 8.98
Price to earning 4.93 6.51 12.41 5.37 8.08
Price 72.24 131.49 219.86 49.31 72.53

Quarterly
QoQ Sales 27% 16% -7% 5%
Tax % 29% 29% 48% 35%
Quarterly Contribution 29% 34% 32% 33%
Narration Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
Sales 9,126.42 11,620.45 13,525.07 12,578.77 13,218.02
Expenses 8,360.98 10,848.48 12,621.38 11,782.33 12,335.43
Operating Profit 765.44 771.97 903.69 796.44 882.59
Other Income 185.72 87.93 -15.57 151.86 379.09
Depreciation 123.59 132.20 156.20 125.63 319.58
Interest 304.02 323.29 436.37 443.13 753.53
Profit before tax 523.55 404.41 295.55 379.54 188.57
Tax 124.31 117.81 86.42 182.76 66.83
Net profit 362.37 296.81 233.95 271.46 212.41
0 0 0 0 0
OPM 8% 7% 7% 6% 7%
-2% 12% 7% -9% 76% 15% 15%
94% 95% 95% 94% 95% 89% 89%
5.7% 4.9% 5.3% 6.3% 5.3% 11.0% 11.2%
23% 32% 29% 31% 50% 35% 35%
2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 5% 5%

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24


35,923.92 40,378.66 43,402.56 39,537.13 69,420.18 79,833.21 91,808.19
33,886.21 38,409.32 41,108.17 37,031.48 65,706.58 71,051.55 81,525.67
2,037.71 1,969.34 2,294.39 2,505.65 3,713.60 8,781.65 10,282.52
363.21 504.22 872.32 494.31 1,012.11 1,113.32 1,224.65
663.92 389.77 472.06 537.14 1,247.78 1,372.56 1,509.81
1,250.17 1,625.07 1,572.32 1,376.85 2,525.88 2,652.17 2,519.57
486.83 458.72 1,122.33 1,085.97 952.05 5,870.24 7,477.79
112.11 144.54 324.33 339.65 476.68 2,054.58 2,617.23
757.25 717.14 1,138.17 922.64 776.56 3,815.66 4,860.56
6.89 6.52 10.35 8.39 7.06 33.47 42.64
15.18 22.51 13.30 122.91 285.34 52.30 20.00
104.50 146.75 137.60 1,031.15 2,014.75 1,750.45 852.73

Nosh 114.00

42% 33% 64% -7% -30% 30%


-16% 46% 35% 35% 18% 35%
27% 36% 59% 55%
Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 YoY
18,757.87 24,865.52 40,844.25 38,175.23 26,612.23 34,595.90 42%
17,986.15 23,603.08 39,101.86 36,305.88 24,983.06 32,901.82 39%
771.72 1,262.44 1,742.39 1,869.35 1,629.17 1,694.08 111%
205.53 276.04 222.18 266.23 338.60 275.76 65%
353.94 448.63 417.10 531.39 592.22 592.19 67%
707.68 621.54 915.00 933.98 595.90 8.00 -16%
-84.37 468.31 632.47 670.21 779.65 1,369.65 -1024%
13.79 213.30 221.74 231.31 142.99 476.45 937%
-11.63 304.32 469.46 460.94 820.06 893.20 -7151%
0 0 0 0 0
4% 5.08% 4.27% 4.90% 6.12% 5% 49%
15% 15% 15%
89% 89% 89%
11.3% 11.4% 11.5%
35% 35% 35%
6% 6% 6%

Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 5 Yr Cagr


105,579.42 121,416.33 139,628.78 15%
93,648.94 107,574.87 123,571.47 13%
11,930.47 13,841.46 16,057.31 34%
1,347.12 1,481.83 1,630.01 10%
1,660.80 1,826.87 2,009.56 10%
2,393.59 2,513.27 2,638.93 1%
9,223.21 10,983.15 13,038.83 69%
3,228.12 3,844.10 4,563.59 57%
5,995.09 7,139.05 8,475.24 61%
52.59 62.62 74.34 60%
20.00 20.00 20.00
1,051.77 1,252.46 1,486.88 -6%

QoQ
-30%
-31%
-13%
27%
11%
-36%
16%
-38%
78%

25%
Excel Sheet Made by Amol
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD All figures in Rs crores
PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 TTM COMMON SIZE P&L STATEMENT
y-o-y Sales Growth % 18% 17% -47% 7% -2% 12% 7% -9% 76% 88% Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 TTM
Sales 46,375 54,947 64,465 34,008 36,533 35,924 40,379 43,403 39,537 69,420 130,497
Raw Material Cost 33,979 37,732 42,811 28,422 30,982 29,998 33,321 34,660 30,248 53,718 - 73% 69% 66% 84% 85% 84% 83% 80% 77% 77%
Power and Fuel 18 31 31 8 7 3 6 12 13 59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 3,055 3,625 4,255 1,706 1,910 2,205 2,551 3,115 4,358 8,088 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11% 12%
Gross Profit 9,324 13,559 17,369 3,873 3,634 3,718 4,500 5,615 4,918 7,556 Gross Margin 20% 25% 27% 11% 10% 10% 11% 13% 12% 11%

Employee Cost 643 830 1,152 529 511 569 657 683 830 1,182 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Selling and admin 2,233 2,566 3,070 1,358 1,005 928 1,231 1,955 1,306 2,118 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3%
Other Expenses 428 780 698 303 215 183 643 683 276 542 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% Chart of Op.EBIT Margin
Depreciation 2,298 3,223 3,522 314 315 664 390 472 537 1,248 1,989 5% 6% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Operating Profit (Op. EBIT) 3,723 6,160 8,928 1,369 1,587 1,374 1,580 1,822 1,969 2,466 4,514 Op.EBIT Margin 8% 11% 14% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3%

Other Income 1,775 1,157 792 1,044 749 363 504 872 494 1,012 1,103 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Interest 3,492 5,703 7,056 1,357 1,257 1,250 1,625 1,572 1,377 2,526 3,066 8% 10% 11% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4%
Profit before tax 2,005 1,614 2,663 1,056 1,079 487 459 1,122 1,086 952 2,551 Chart of PAT Margin
Tax 788 -1,032 365 78 271 112 145 324 340 477 809
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 1,218 2,646 2,298 978 808 375 314 798 746 475 1,741 PAT Margin 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Effective Income Tax Rate 39% -64% 14% 7% 25% 23% 32% 29% 31% 50%

Marginal Income Tax Rate 33.99% 33.99% 34.61% 34.61% 34.61% 35.00% 30.00% 25.17% 25.17% #N/A
MARGINAL INCOME TAX DATA
GROWTH ANALYSIS Source KPMG for the years from 2011 until 2019
SALES Op. EBIT PAT from FY20 onwards, it is assumed that domestic companies will take advantage of Section 115BAA
9 Year CAGR 5% -4% -10% Mar-11 32.44%
7 Year CAGR 1% -17% -20% Mar-12 32.45%
5 Year CAGR 14% 9% -10% Mar-13 33.99%
3 Year CAGR 20% 16% 15% Mar-14 33.99%
TTM CAGR 88% 83% 266% Mar-15 34.61%
Mar-16 34.61%
Mar-17 34.61%
DEBT & SOLVENCY RATIOS Mar-18 35.00%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-19 30.00%
Debt 69,332 71,980 83,571 19,169 20,846 17,637 11,243 12,419 16,227 41,604 Mar-20 25.17%
Equity 21,396 23,757 25,728 13,378 14,136 15,089 14,756 16,947 17,159 22,257 Mar-21 25.17%

Debt Coverage Ratios (Lower is Better)


Debt/Equity Ratio 3.2 3.0 3.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.9
Debt/EBITDA 11.5 7.7 6.7 11.4 11.0 8.7 5.7 5.4 6.5 11.2

Interest Coverage Ratios (Higher is better)


Op. EBIT/Interest 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.0
EBITDA/Interest 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.5

NET DEBT (as at) Mar-22


Outstanding Debt 41,604
- Investments - Investments of 4292 NOT deducted from debt. Deduct it, only if it is liquid. Check from Annual Report
- Cash & Bank 3,916
Net Outstanding Debt 37,688

FREE CASH FLOW


Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
CASH FROM OPERATIONS 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942 3,236 2,454 4,043 1,385
- CAPEX -9,357 -9,937 72,074 -3,537 4,654 906 -3,510 -2,377 -35,252 Chart of FCFF
- Tax Benefit from Interest (Int x Tax) -1,938 -2,442 -470 -435 -438 -488 -396 -347 #N/A
FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM (FCFF) -3,067 -3,847 76,717 -3,198 7,159 3,655 -1,452 1,320 #N/A

- Interest -5,703 -7,056 -1,357 -1,257 -1,250 -1,625 -1,572 -1,377 -2,526
+ Tax Benefit from Interest (Int x Tax) 1,938 2,442 470 435 438 488 396 347 #N/A
- Debt Repayment - - -64,401 - -3,209 -6,393 - - -
+ New Debt 2,648 11,591 - 1,676 - - 1,176 3,808 25,377
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY (FCFE) -4,184 3,129 11,428 -2,344 3,138 -3,876 -1,453 4,097 #N/A

FREE CASH FLOW OVER 9 YEARS FROM Mar-14 UNTIL Mar-22

Total CFO - Int Tax Shield #N/A (Cum CFO - Interest)/Cum PAT 640% (ideally, should be more than 75%. Higher the better)
- Total Capex 13,666
TOTAL FCFF #N/A Cum FCFF/Cum EBIAT #N/A
(Payout Ratio)
- Total Interest + Int Tax Benefit #N/A
Total FCFE through operations #N/A

Repayment of Debt -27,728


TOTAL FCFE #N/A
#N/A
Total Dividends in 9 yrs 814 #N/A

CASH FLOW STATEMENT


Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 TOTAL
Cash from Operating Activity 7,666 8,228 8,532 5,112 774 2,942 3,236 2,454 4,043 1,385 44,372
Cash from Investing Activity -14,790 -8,007 -11,465 -1,825 -1,460 -7,649 2,487 -1,082 -8,611 -17,041 -69,442
Cash from Financing Activity 7,199 -1,109 3,445 -3,448 716 5,120 -6,158 -221 3,109 15,901 24,554
Net Cash Flow 75 -888 512 -161 30 413 -436 1,151 -1,459 246 -516

VALUATION MULTIPLES
Based on Equity Value
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 2.4.23
No. of shares (in crores) 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
EPS 11 24 21 9 7 3 3 7 7 4 16
Stock Price 72 131 220 49 73 105 147 138 1,031 2,015 1,750
P / ETTM 6.5 5.5 10.5 5.5 9.9 30.7 51.4 19.0 152.0 466.1 110.6

Book Value / Share 194.5 216.0 233.9 121.6 128.5 137.2 134.2 154.1 156.0 202.4 202.4
P/B 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 6.6 10.0 8.6

Based on Enterprise Value


Debt - Cash 62,258 68,259 79,920 17,630 19,131 15,752 9,534 9,043 14,416 37,688 Put updated figures
Enterprise Value (EV) 139,534 82,720 104,100 23,053 27,107 27,245 25,673 24,176 127,822 259,270 -
EBIT 5,498 7,317 9,720 2,413 2,336 1,737 2,084 2,695 2,463 3,478 5,617
EV / EBITTTM 25.4 11.3 10.7 9.6 11.6 15.7 12.3 9.0 51.9 74.5

EBITDA 7,796 10,540 13,242 2,727 2,652 2,401 2,474 3,167 3,000 4,726 7,606
EV / EBITDA TTM 17.9 7.8 7.9 8.5 10.2 11.3 10.4 7.6 42.6 54.9

EV / Sales 3.0 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 3.2 3.7

DIVIDENDS
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 2.4.23
Dividends (Rs crores) 154 154 154 44 44 44 44 110 110 110

Dividends/Net Profit 13% 6% 7% 4% 5% 12% 14% 14% 15% 23%


Dividends/Share 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0
Stock Dividend Yield 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%

% RETURN IF YOU PURCHASED THE STOCK IN THE PAST AND SOLD IT TODAY
INPUT Date of Purchase Mar/17

Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 2.4.23
Stock Bought - - - - -73 - - - - -
Dividends - - - - 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0
Stock Sold 1,750
Total - - - - -72 0 0 1 1 1 1,750

IRR 70.3%

NOTE: The IRR calculated above DOES NOT account for buybacks, if any, by a company
ROIC PREDICTOR
Calculate the impact of ROIC of a company using your estimates of margins, tax and capital efficiency ratios

Input ONLY in Cells denoted as:


Historical Data of 9 years
Operating EBIT Margin 0% Median Min
Gross Margin 11% 10%
- SG&A & Others Input % as a negative number -6% -8%
- Depreciation Input % as a negative number -1% -6%

Sales/Av Invested Capital -


Fixed Asset Turnover 1.9 0.6

Working Capital Turnover -


Average Inventory Days 22 15
Average Receivable Days 115 63
Average Payable Days 0 0
Average Working Capital Cycle Days -

ROIC Pre-Tax 0%

Effective Tax Rate 25% -64%


ROIC 0%

1) Refer to the historical ranges of these inputs so that you make more informed estimates.
It is very much possible that you can have estimates higher/lower than the historical ranges.
But you should have strong reasons for doing so
2) Remember that these historical numbers are without adjustments as stated in the previous tab
ciency ratios

ical Data of 9 years


Max
27%
-5%
-1%

2.7

29
137
0

50%
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
QUARTER ANALYSIS

Latest Quarter Latest 6 Months Period Latest 9 Months Period


Dec-22 Dec-21 Growth Latest Year Ago Growth Latest Year Ago Growth
Sales 26,612 18,758 42% 64,787 31,976 103% 105,632 44,555 137%
Expenses 24,983 17,986 61,289 30,322 100,391 42,104
Depreciation 592 354 1,124 674 1,541 799
Operating Profit 1,037 418 148% 2,375 981 142% 3,700 1,652 124%

Other Income 339 206 605 585 827 736


Interest 596 708 1,530 1,461 2,445 1,904
Profit before tax 187 -438 326 -569 542 -315
Tax 143 14 374 81 596 263
Net profit 44 -452 -110% -48 -650 -93% -54 -579 -91%

EBIT Margin 4% 2% 4% 3% 4% 4%
EBITDA Margin 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6%
PAT Margin 0% -2% 0% -2% 0% -1%

Dec-22 Dec-21 Dec-20 Sep-22 Sep-21 Sep-20 Jun-22 Jun-21 Mar-22 Mar-21
Sales 26,612 18,758 11,620 38,175 13,218 9,126 40,844 12,579 24,866 13,525
42% 61% 189% 45% 225% 84%

Operating Profit 1,037 418 640 1,338 563 642 1,325 671 814 747
148% -35% 138% -12% 98% 9%
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an


upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it


knows?

Has the company been buying back its


shares?

Have retained earnings been invested


well?

Is the company’s return on equity above


average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to


inflation?

Does the company need to constantly


reinvest in capital?
Conclusion

Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing those
companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can increase the
size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the circle is to
know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been employed
profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings and
strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.

Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against competitors
will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.
Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.


Key Ratios
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Sales Growth 18.5% 17.3% -47.2% 7.4% -1.7% 12.4% 7.5% -8.9%
PBT Growth -19.5% 65.0% -60.4% 2.2% -54.9% -5.8% 144.7% -3.2%
Net Profit Growth 117.3% -13.1% -57.4% -17.4% -53.6% -16.2% 154.0% -6.5%
Dividend Growth 0.0% 0.0% -71.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 150.0% 0.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 7.3% 3.7% -40.1% -84.9% 280.1% 10.0% -24.2% 64.8%
Free Cash Flow Growth 9.0% 1.9% -44.3% -96.3% ### 3.7% -60.8% 244.0%

Operating Margin 13.0% 17.1% 19.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.3% 6.3%
PBT Margin 4.3% 2.9% 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 1.4% 1.1% 2.6% 2.7%
Net Margin 2.6% 4.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% 1.9%

Debtor Days 70.9 67.2 86.7 109.3 127.3 122.9 129.3 110.6 110.6
Inventory Turnover 12.4 14.0 15.8 26.2 22.1 15.3 15.1 16.9 22.5
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.0 0.8 0.8 3.2 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.1 3.6
Debt/Equity 3.2 3.0 3.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9
Debt/Assets 62.0% 60.9% 63.9% 46.0% 43.8% 31.3% 26.4% 26.5% 31.4%
Interest Coverage (Times) 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.8
Return on Equity 5.7% 11.1% 8.9% 7.3% 5.7% 2.5% 2.1% 4.7% 4.3%
Return on Capital Employed 6.1% 7.6% 8.9% 7.4% 6.7% 5.3% 8.0% 9.2% 7.4%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 7,351 8,016 8,168 4,547 167 2,005 2,080 816 2,805
Mar/22
75.6%
-12.3%
-36.3%
0.0%
-65.7%
-80.0%

5.3%
1.4%
0.7%

72.1
10.2
2.3
1.9
41.0%
1.4
2.1%
5.4%
561
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)


Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 73% 70% 66% 83% 85% 86% 84% 79% 75% 83%
Change in Inventory 0% 1% 0% -1% 0% 2% 1% -1% -1% 6%
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11% 12%
Employee Cost 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3%
Other Expenses 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Operating Profit 13% 15% 20% 6% 5% 1% 2% 7% 9% -6%
Other Income 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Depreciation 5% 6% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Interest 8% 10% 11% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4%
Profit Before Tax 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1%
Tax 2% -2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Net Profit 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet


Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 19% 20% 20% 32% 29% 27% 34% 36% 33% 22%
Borrowings 62% 61% 64% 46% 44% 31% 26% 26% 31% 41%
Other Liabilities 19% 19% 16% 22% 27% 42% 39% 37% 35% 37%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 44% 60% 64% 25% 29% 19% 21% 22% 21% 30%
Capital Work in Progress 26% 11% 5% 18% 16% 10% 14% 16% 17% 23%
Investments 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 11% 4%
Other Assets 30% 29% 30% 54% 53% 69% 62% 58% 51% 43%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 8% 9% 12% 24% 27% 21% 34% 28% 23% 13%
Inventory 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3% 7%
Cash & Bank 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4% 4%
A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD


Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 1,603 1,431 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 1,844 1,470 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 2,120 1,509 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 2,332 1,482 4 FY21
5 FY22 2,565 1,456 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 2,822 1,430 Sales 14% 6 FY23
7 FY24 2,963 1,340 PBT -2% 7 FY24
8 FY25 3,111 1,257 FCF 27% 8 FY25
9 FY26 3,267 1,178 9 FY26
10 FY27 3,430 1,104 10 FY27
10 34,300 11,044 10
Intrinsic Value 30,529 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 199,552 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 554% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD


Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
1,673 1,494 Year 4-6 15%
2,007 1,600 Year 7-10 10%
2,409 1,715 Discount Rate 12%
2,770 1,760
3,186 1,808
3,664 1,856
4,030 1,823
4,433 1,790
4,876 1,758
5,364 1,727
80,456 25,905
Intrinsic Value 49,065
Current Mkt. Cap. 199,552
Premium/(Discount) to IV 307%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting


, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name DANI ENTERPRISES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/22 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 541.7 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (5.0) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) (845) Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 199,552 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y


Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations


m Formula (High Range)
DANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Mar/22

541.7
8.5
(10.1)

(6,294)
199,552

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 1,394 31,733


###
Years 1-5 6-10 16%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) 35,775

Year FCF Growth Present Value


1 1,603 15% 1,431
2 1,844 15% 1,470
3 2,120 15% 1,509
4 2,438 15% 1,549
5 2,804 15% 1,591
6 3,140 12% 1,591
7 3,517 12% 1,591
8 3,939 12% 1,591
9 4,412 12% 1,591
10 4,941 12% 1,591

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 5,040
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 15,505
Terminal Value 16,228
Total PV of Cash Flows 31,733
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here


Valuation
LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)


Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
Expected Returns Model
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Particulars Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,613 2,221 1,948 1,011 988 757 717
Net Profit Margin 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Return on Equity 6% 11% 9% 7% 6% 2% 2%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)


Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 2,412
Current P/E (x) 257.0
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 48,238
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 15,531
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 199,552

Note: See explanation of this model here


el
Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,138 923 777 -8% -5%
3% 2% 1%
5% 4% 2%
Intrinsic Value Range
ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho 30,529 49,065 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham -845 -6,294 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF 31,733 understand this business?
Expected Return 15,531
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 199,552
mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ve answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-


are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the


vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

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