BON 410-OPERATIONS RESEARCH-TUTORIAL 1-2023

1. A, B and C are three arbitrary events. Find expressions for the events noted below, in the context of A, B and
C:
i. Only A occurs
ii. Both A and B, but not C occur
iii. All three events occur
iv. At least one occurs
v. At least two occur
vi. One and no more occurs
vii. Two and no more occurs
viii. None occurs.

2. A, B and C are independent witnesses of an event which is known to have occurred. A speaks the truth three
times out of four, B four times out of five and C five times out of six. What is the probability that the occurrence
will be reported truthfully by majority of three witnesses?

3. A town has two doctors X and Y operating independently. If the probability that doctor X is available is 0.9 and
that for Y is 0.8, what is the probability that at least one doctor is available when needed?

4. The chance that doctor A will diagnose a disease X correctly is 60%. The chances that a patient will die by his
treatment after correct diagnosis is 40% and the chance of death by wrong diagnosis is 70%. A patient of doctor
A, who had disease X, died. What is the chance that his disease was diagnosed correctly?

5. Three newspapers A, B and C are published in a certain city. It is estimated from a survey that 20% read A,
16% read B, 14% read C, 8% read A and B, 5% read A and C, 4% read B and C and 2% read all the three
newspapers. What is the probability that a normally chosen person:
(i) does not read any paper
(ii) read A and B but not C.

6. A petrol pump is supplied with petrol once a day. If its daily volume X of sales in thousands of litres is distributed
by
f(x) = 5(1 − x)4 ; 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
What must be the capacity of its tank in order that the probability that its supply will be exhausted in a given
day shall be 0.01?
7. The time one has to wait for a bus at a downtown bus stop is observed to be random phenomenon (X) with the
following probability density function:
0 , for x < 0
1
(x + 1) ,0 ≤ x < 1
9
4 1
(x − ) , 1 ≤ x < 1.5
9 2
4 5
f(x) = ( − x) , 1.5 ≤ x < 2
9 2
1
(4 − x) ,2 ≤ x < 3
9
1
,3 ≤ x < 6
9
{0 ,6 ≤ x

Let the events A and B defined as follows:

A: one waits between 0 to 2 minutes inclusive
B: one waits between 1 to 3 minutes inclusive.
2
(i) Show that P(B|A) = 3
1
(ii) P[Neither A nor B occur] = 3
1.
(i) (A ∩ B̅ ∩ C̅)
(ii) (A ∩ B ∩ C̅)
(iii) (A ∩ B ∩ C)
(iv) (A ∪ B ∪ C)
(v) (A ∩ B ∩ C̅) ∪ (A ∩ B ̅ ∩ C) ∪ (A
̅ ∩ B ∩ C) ∪ (A ∩ B ∩ C)
̅ ̅ ̅ ̅
(vi) (A ∩ B ∩ C) ∪ (A ∩ B ∩ C) ∪ (A ̅∩B ̅ ∩ C)
(vii) (A ∩ B ∩ C̅) ∪ (A̅ ∩ B ∩ C) ∪ (A ∩ B
̅ ∩ C)
(viii) (A̅∩B ̅ ∩ C̅)

2. Ei : event denoting the witness i; i=A, B, C speaks the truth

3 4 5
P(EA ) = 4 , P(EB ) = 5 , P(EC ) = 6
P[majority witnesses speaks the truth]
= P[EA ∩ EB ∩ E ̅C ] + P[EA ∩ E ̅B ∩ EC ] + P[E̅A ∩ EB ∩ EC ] + P[EA ∩ EB ∩ EC ]
3 4 1 3 1 5 1 4 5 3 4 5
=4 × 5 × 6 + 4 × 5 × 6 + 4 × 5 × 6 + 4 × 5 × 6
12+15+20+60
= 120
107
=120

3. Ai : doctor i is operating; i=X, Y

P(AX ) = 0.9 ; P(AY ) = 0.8
P(AX ∪ AY ) = P(AX ) + P(AY ) − P(AX ∩ AY )
=0.9 + 0.8 − 0.9 × 0.8
=0.98

4. E1: disease X is diagnosed correctly by doctor A

E2 : A patient of doctor A who has disease X dies
P(E1 ) = 0.6 ⇒ P(E ̅1 ) = 0.4
P(E2|E1)=0.4 and P(E2|E ̅1)=0.7

P(E1 ∩E2 ) P(E1 ∩E2 )

P(E1|E2) = = P(E ∩E )+P(E̅ 1 ∩E2 )
P(E2 ) 1 2

P(E2 |E1 )P(E1 )

= ̅ 1 )P(E
̅1)
P(E2 |E1 )P(E1 )+P(E2 |E

0.4×0.6
= 0.4×0.6+0.7×0,4

6
= 13
5. Ei : event denoting the 𝑖 𝑡ℎ paper read in city i=A, B, C
P(EA ) = 0.2 ; P(EB ) = 0.16 ; P(EC ) = 0.14 ; P(EA ∩ EB ) = 0.08 ; P(EB ∩ EC ) = 0.04 ;
P(EA ∩ EC ) = 0.05 ; P(EA ∩ EB ∩ EC ) = 0.02

̅A ∩ E
(i) P(E ̅B ∩ E
̅C ) = 1 − P(EA ∪ EB ∪ EC )
=1 − P(EA ) − P(EB ) − P(EC ) + P(EA ∩ EB ) + P(EB ∩ EC ) +
P(EA ∩ EC ) − P(EA ∩ EB ∩ EC )

̅C ) = P(EA ∩ EB ) − P(EA ∩ EB ∩ EC )
(ii) P(EA ∩ EB ∩ E
= 0.08 − 0.02
= 0.06

6. X: sales in thousands of litres

a: capacity of the thank (in thousands of litres)
1
P(X ≥ a) = 0.01 ⇒ ∫a f(x)dx = 0.01

1
⇒ ∫a 5(1 − x)4 dx = 0.01

⇒ [−(1 − x)5 ]1𝑎 = 0.01

⇒ (1 − a)5 = 0.01
1
⇒ a = 1 − (0.01)5

⇒ a = 1−0.3981

= 0.6019

⸫ Capacity of the tank = 0.6019 × 1000 = 601.9 litres

2
7. P(A) = ∫0 f(x)dx
3
1 1 4 1 2 4 5
= ∫0 (x + 1)dx + ∫12 (x − ) dx + ∫3 ( − x) dx
9 9 2 2 9 2
3
1 2
1 x2 4 x2 x 2 4 5x x2
= [9 ( 2 + x)] + [9 ( 2 − 2)] + [9 ( 2 − 2 )]3
0 1
2
1 1 4 9 3 1 1 4 15 9
= 9 (2 + 1) + 9 (8 − 4 − 2 + 2) + 9 (5 − 2 − + 8)
4

1 3 4 3 4 3
=9×2+9×8+9×8

1 1 1
=6+6+6

1
=2
 0 1 2 3

P(A ∩ B) = P(1 ≤ x ≤ 2)
2
=∫0 f(x)dx
A B
3
4 1 2 4 5
= ∫1 2 (x − 2) dx + ∫3 ( − x) dx
9 2 9 2

3
2
4 x2 x 2 4 5x x2
= [9 ( 2 − 2)] + [9 ( 2 − 2 )]3
1
2

4 9 3 1 1 4 15 9
= 9 (8 − 4 − 2 + 2) + 9 (5 − 2 − + 8)
4

4 3 4 3
=9×8+9×8

1 1
=6+6

1
=3

P(A∩B)
(i). P(B|A) = P(A)

1
3
= 1
2

2
=
3

̅∩B
(ii). P[Neither A nor B occur] = P(A ̅)

6 6 1
= P(x > 3) = ∫3 f(x)dx = ∫3 dx
9

1
= [x]63
9

1
= 3
 BON 410-OPERATIONS RESEARCH-TUTORIAL 2-2023

1. If A and B are independent events, prove that A and B̅ are independent. Also prove that A̅ and B, and
A̅ and B̅ are independent.

2. The probability that a 50-year-old man will be a live at 60 is 0.83 and the probability that a 45-year-old
woman will be alive at 55 is 0.87. What is the probability that a man who is 50 and his wife who is 45
will both be alive 10 years hence?
1 3
3. A problem in Probability is given to three students A, B, and C whose chances of solving it are 2, 4 and
1
respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved if all of them try independently?
4

4. The odds against Manager X settling the wage dispute with the workers are 8 : 6 and odds in favour of
Manager Y settling the same dispute are 14 : 16.
(i) What is the chance that neither settles the dispute, if they both try independently of each other?
(ii) What is the probability that the dispute will be settled?

5. The odds that person X speaks the truth are 3:2 and the odds that person Y speaks the truth are 5:3.
ln what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other on an identical point?

6. Three groups of children contain respectively 3 girls and 1 boy, 2 girls and 2 boys, and 1 girl and 3
boys. One child is selected at random from each group. What is the chance that the three selected
consist of 1 girl and 2 boys?

7. The machines X, Y, Z with capacities proportional to 2 : 3: 4 are producing bullets. The probabilities
that the machines produce defectives are 0.1, 0.2 and 0.7 respectively. A bullet is taken from a day's
production and found to be defective. What is the probability that it came from machine X, Y, or Z?

8. ln a bolt factory machines A, Band C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of their
output 5, 4, 2 percent are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be
defective. What are the probabilities that it was manufactured by machines A, B and C?

9. In terms of probability:
P1 = P(A), P2 = P(B), P3 = P(A ∩ B), P1 , P2 , P3 > 0
Express the following in terms of P1 , P2 , P3
(i) P(A̅∩B ̅)
(ii) P(A̅∪B ̅)
(iii) P(A ∩ B ̅)
(iv) P(A̅ ∪ B)
(v) P(A̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∩ B)
(vi) ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
P(A ∪ B)
(vii) P(A|B)
(viii) P(A|B̅)
(ix) P(B|A ̅)
1. A & B are independent ⇒P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)
Consider P(A ∩ B̅) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)
= P(A) − P(A)P(B) A B
= P(A)[1 − P(B)]
̅)
= P(A)P(B
̅
⸫ A and B are independent

A∩B
A∩B ̅ ∩B
A

̅ ∩ B) = P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
Consider P(A
= P(B) − P(A)P(B)
= P(B)[1 − P(A)]
= P(B)P(A̅)
̅ and B are independent
⸫ A

̅∩B
Consider P(A ̅) = 1 − P(A ∪ B)
= 1 − P(A) − P(B) + P(A ∩ B)
= 1 − P(A) − P(B) + P(A)P(B)
= [1 − P(A)] − P(B)[1 − P(A)]
= [1 − P(A)][1 − P(B)]
̅)P(A
= P(B ̅)
̅ ̅
⸫ A and B are independent

2. A: 50-year-old man will be alive

B: 45-year-old woman will be alive
P(A) = 0.83, P(B) = 0.87

P[50 year old man and 45 year old woman will be alive] = P(A ∩ B)
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)=0.83 × 0.87
= 0.732
Since A and B are independent.

3. Ei : event that the person i solves the problem

i = A, B, C
P[the problem will be solved] = P(E1 ∪ E2 ∪ E3 )
= 1 − P(E̅1 ∩ E̅2 ∩ E
̅3 )
= 1 − P(E ̅1 )P(E
̅2 )P(E
̅3 )
1 1 3
= 1−2×4×4
29
= 32
4. A: the manager X will settle the dispute
B: the manager Y will settle the dispute
8 4 3
̅) =
P(A = 7 ⇒ P(A) = 7
8+6

14 7
̅) = 8
P(B) = 14+16 = 15 ⇒ P(B 15

̅∩B
(i) P[neither settles the dispute] = P(A ̅)

̅)P(B
= P(A ̅)

4 8
= 7 × 15

32
= 105

̅∩B
(ii) P[at least one of X and Y settles the dispute] = P(A ∪ B) = 1 − P(A ̅)

32 73
= 1 − 105 = 105

5. A: x speaks the truth

B: Y speaks the truth
3 3
̅) = 2
P(A) = 3+2 = 5 ⇒ P(A 5

5 5 3
̅) =
P(B) = 5+3 = 8 ⇒ P(B 8

There are two possibilities:

(i) x speaks the truth, Y lies.
(ii) x lies, Y speaks the truth.

̅) + P(A
P[X and Y contradict each other]= P(A ∩ B ̅ ∩ B)

̅) + P(A
= P(A)P(B ̅)P(B)

3 3 2 5
=5×8+5×8

19
= 40
6.
I II III
I G B B
II B G B
III B B G

B: boy; G: girl.

Required Probability = P(I) + P(II) + P(III)

3 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 1
=4×4×4+4×4×4+4×4×4

9 3 1
= 32 + 32 + 32

13
= 32

7. Ai : capacity of machine i; i = X, Y, Z
2 3 4
P(Ax ) = 9 ; P(Ay ) = 9 ; P(Az ) = 9
D: defective

P(D|Ax ) = 0.1 ; P(D|𝐴𝑦 ) = 0.2 ; P(D|𝐴𝑧 ) = 0.7

P(Ax )P(D|𝐴𝑥 )
P(Ax |D) = ∑𝑧
𝑖=𝑥 P(Ai )P(D|𝐴𝑖 )
2
×0.1
9
= 2 3 4
×0.1+ ×0.2+ ×0.7
9 9 9

2
= 36

1
= 18

P(Ay )P(D|𝐴𝑦 )
P(Ay |D) = ∑𝑧
𝑖=𝑥 P(Ai )P(D|𝐴𝑖 )
3
×0.2
9
= 2 3 4
×0.1+ ×0.2+ ×0.7
9 9 9

6
= 36

1
=6
 P(Az |D) = 1 − P(D|Ax ) − P(D|Ay )

1 1 7
= 1 − 18 − 6 = 9

8. Ei : bolts manufactured by machine i;

i = A, B, C
P(EA ) = 0.25; P(EB ) = 0.35; P(EC ) = 0.40
D: defective bolt

P(D|EA ) = 0.05; P(D|EB ) = 0.04; P(D|EC ) = 0.02

P(EA )P(D|𝐸𝐴 )
P(EA |D) = ∑𝐶
𝑖=𝐴 P(Ei )P(D|Ei )

0.25×0.05
= 0.25×0.05+0.35×0.04+0.40×0.02

0.0125
=0.0345

=0.36232

P(EB )P(D|𝐸𝐵 )
P(EB |D) = ∑𝐶
𝑖=𝐴 P(Ei )P(D|Ei )

0.35×0.04
= 0.25×0.05+0.35×0.04+0.40×0.02

0.014
=0.0345

=0.4058

P(EC |D) = 1 − P(EA |D) − P(EB |D)

= 1 − 0.36232 − 0.4058

= 0.23188

9.
P1 = P(A), P2 = P(B), P3 = P(A ∩ B), P1 , P2 , P3 > 0
A B
(i) ̅∩B
P(A ̅) = 1 − P(A ∪ B)
= 1 − P1 − P2 + P3

(ii) ̅∪B
P(A ̅) = P(A̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∩ B)
A∩B

= 1 − P(A ∩ B)
̅
A∩B ̅ ∩B
A
= 1 − P3
(iii) ̅) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)
P(A ∩ B
= P1 − P3

(iv) ̅ ∪ B) = P(A
P(A ̅) + P(B) − P(A ̅ ∩ B)
= 1 − P1 + P2 − [P2 − P3 ]
= 1 − P1 + P3

(v) ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
P(A ∩ B) = 1 − P(A ∩ B)
= 1 − P3

(vi) ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
P(A ∪ B) = 1 − P(A ∪ B)
= 1 − [P1 + P2 − P3 ]
= 1 − P1 − P2 + P3

P(A∩B) P
(vii) P(A|B) = = P3
P(B) 2

P(A∩B̅) P(A)−P(A∩B)
(viii) ̅) =
P(A|B =
̅)
P(B 1−P(B)
P1 −P3
= 1−P2

P(B∩A̅) P(B)−P(A∩B)
(ix) ̅) =
P(B|A =
̅)
P(A 1−P(A)
P2 −P3
= 1−P1