Vcscvea 20230215 Buy
Vcscvea 20230215 Buy
Vcscvea 20230215 Buy
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 15, 2023 | 1
2022 Recap: Strong vehicle sales elevate earnings growth
Figure 1: VEA’s Q4 2022 and 2022 results, including VCSC’s estimates of associate profits HOLD
2022/
Q4
VND bn YoY 2022A YoY VCSC’s VCSC comments on 2022A
2022
Old 2022F
Mainly driven by the agricultural machinery, foundry
Revenue 1,267 7% 4,748 18% 103%
and automobile part businesses.
Mainly driven by 34% YoY higher SG&A costs,
EBIT -88 N.M. -9 N.M. -8% including VND96bn of provision expenses (+14x
YoY).
Associate profits 2,369 39% 6,984 35% 109%
We attribute the strong profitability to improved
motorbike sales and margins due to (1) eased supply
Honda 2,050 52% 5,975 37% 110%
shortages alleviating input costs and (2) higher
average selling prices in 2022.
Mainly dragged by a 43% decline in Q4 2022 profit
Toyota 160 -43% 735 2% 92% that we partly attribute to strong promotions and
discounts with the early arrival of the Lunar New Year.
Strong profitability backed by new launches/updates
Ford + Others 159 103% 275 3.5x 171%
of products.
Other non-
296 91% 876 27% 111% Thanks to higher bank deposit rates.
operating profits
PBT 2,577 34% 7,852 32% 108%
NPAT-MI 2,512 34% 7,602 32% 108%
Sell-out performance
Honda 2W (‘000 Honda’s market share to expand 30 bps to 80.2% in
715 15% 2,408 21% 103%
units) 2022 vs 79.9% in 2021.
Weak results due to heightened competition with
other lower-price brands in the market, including the
Honda 4W 5,502 -28% 30,645 41% 91%
launch of updated flagship models Hyundai Tucson
and Kia Sportage.
Thanks to strong growth of new models such as
compact SUV Raize (CBU, 9x YoY), and MPV Veloz
Toyota 27,221 -10% 92,625 34% 102%
(CBU, launched in April 2022 — 15% of total Toyota
sales in 2022).
Strong results in 2022 across models, led by Transit
Ford 13,329 51% 28,847 22% 135% (minibus, CKD, +170% YoY), and the launch of Ford
Territory (MPV, CKD, 7% of Ford’s sales in 2022).
Source: VEA, VAMA, Vietnam Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers (VAMM), VCSC estimates
CBU (complete built-up): imported cars; CKD (complete knock-down): locally assembled cars; for other
definitions, please see glossary on page 7.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 15, 2023 | 2
2023F: Weak auto demand to put pressure on earnings
Figure 2: VCSC’s 2023 forecasts HOLD
Old New
VND bn 2022 YoY VCSC comments on new 2023F
2023F 2023F
Revenue 4,748 4,298 4,415 -7%
Operating profits -9 69 12 -237%
We project PC and 2W industry sales to decrease 5% YoY and
grow 1% YoY in 2023F, respectively, which is due to the outlook
for a global economic slowdown that will result in expected weaker
discretionary spending from consumers — even those in the
middle affluent class. This should negatively impact the profit
growth of VEA’s associates.
We expect consumers to trade down because of economic
Associate profits 6,984 5,976 6,297 -10%
headwinds, which partly shift sales to segment B models due to
their affordability, including Toyota Vios and Honda City.
Meanwhile, we project SUVs continue to acquire market share
from sedans due to consumer preferences, and we believe
compact and affordable SUVs/MPVs will outpace large
SUVs/MPVs in 2023 as we believe consumers will be more price
sensitive.
Other non-
876 980 844 -4%
operating items
PBT 7,852 7,025 7,152 -9%
NPAT-MI 7,602 6,766 6,918 -9%
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 15, 2023 | 3
Figure 3: Vietnam’s 4W industry sales in 2022 and January 2023
Units 2022 YoY January 2023 YoY
Total auto sales
By segment
486,165 30% 20,810 HOLD
-45%
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: VAMA, Hyundai Thanh Cong; excluding Mercedes and VinFast; VinFast’s sales volume could include
pre-orders, whereas the other auto producers report completed retail sales.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 15, 2023 | 4
Figure 7: Honda’s monthly 2W sales volume (units)
300,000
-16% YoY in January 2023
+21% YoY in 2022
HOLD
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Valuation
In this Update Report, we increase our TP by 2% as we nudge up our aggregate 2023F-2025F
NPAT-MI forecast by 3% mainly due to our upward revision for profit from VEA’s associates in 2023.
We maintain our dividend discounted model (DDM) valuation approach for VEA as we believe it
suits VEA’s stable dividend policy (i.e., almost a 100% payout based on annual earnings at the
parent company’s level). We also maintain a discount on our estimated equity value of 25% as a
result of (1) VEA’s lack of control over its automobile affiliates and limited information disclosures
regarding these companies as well as (2) the risk of value erosion by VEA’s core businesses, which
face stiff competition from Chinese products and lack competitive advantages.
Figure 8: VCSC’s valuation for VEA
Cost of equity Current Previous DDM (five years) VND bn
Beta 1.0 1.0 PV of dividends 24,515
Market risk premium % 8.0% 8.0% PV of terminal value (5% g) 52,158
Risk free rate % 6.0% 6.0% Equity value 76,673
Cost of equity % 14.0% 14.0% Shares (million) 1,329
Equity value per share (VND) 57,701
Valuation discount 25.0%
Target Price (VND) 43,300
Implied target 2023F/2024F P/E 8.4x/7.5x
Source: VCSC
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Figure 10: Sensitivity analysis of our target price for VEA in relation to cost of equity and
terminal growth rate in our DDM valuation, ceteris paribus
Target price (VND)
12.0% 13.0%
Cost of equity
14.0% 15.0%
HOLD
16.0%
3.0% 46,100 41,400 37,500 34,200 31,500
4.0% 50,400 44,700 40,100 36,300 33,200
Terminal growth (g) 5.0% 55,900 48,800 43,300 38,900 35,200
6.0% 63,300 54,100 47,300 41,900 37,700
7.0% 73,600 61,200 52,400 45,800 40,700
Source: VCSC
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
70,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Market price Target price
0
Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Jan-23
Glossary
Abbreviation Full name or description
VAMA Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers’ Association
VAMM Vietnam Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers
2W Two-wheeler (motorbikes)
4W Four-wheeler (including passenger cars and commercial vehicles)
CBU Complete built-up (imported cars)
CKD Complete knock-down (locally assembled cars)
Passenger car, including sedan, hatchback, multi-purpose vehicle and sport utility
PC
vehicle
CV Commercial vehicle, including minibus, pick-up truck and cargo truck
Mini cars in the EU passenger car classification or mini-compact cars in the US car
Segment A
classification
Small cars in the EU passenger car classification or subcompact cars in the US car
Segment B
classification
Medium cars in the EU passenger car classification or compact cars in the US car
Segment C
classification
Large car in the EU passenger car classification or mid-size cars in the US car
Segment D
classification
SUV Sport utility vehicle
MPV Multi-purpose vehicle
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 15, 2023 | 7
Financial Statements
P&L (VND bn)
Revenue
2022
4,748
2023F
4,415
2024F
4,724
2025F
5,055
B/S (VND bn)
Cash & cash equivalents
2022
294
2023F
273
HOLD
2024F
2025F
292 313
COGS -4,096 -3,810 -4,076 -4,362 ST investment 12,593 15,026 14,420 15,394
Gross Profit 651 606 648 693 Accounts receivable 3,636 3,182 3,263 3,422
Sales & Marketing exp. -105 -100 -102 -102 Inventories 1,541 1,560 1,647 1,726
General & Admin exp. -555 -494 -519 -526 Other current assets 146 391 355 258
Operating Profit (EBIT) -9 12 27 66 Total Current assets 18,209 20,432 19,977 21,113
Financial income 818 811 727 673 Fixed assets, gross 5,524 5,655 5,786 5,916
Financial expenses -23 -49 -44 -42 - Depreciation -3,792 -4,086 -4,387 -4,695
- o/w interest expense -14 -49 -44 -42 Fixed assets, net 1,732 1,569 1,398 1,221
Associates 6,984 6,297 7,143 8,006 LT investments 6,893 6,205 7,052 7,915
Net other income/(loss) 81 81 81 81 LT assets other 621 621 621 621
Profit before Tax 7,852 7,152 7,934 8,785 Total LT assets 9,246 8,395 9,072 9,757
Income Tax -180 -171 -158 -156 Total Assets 27,455 28,827 29,048 30,870
NPAT before MI 7,672 6,981 7,776 8,629
Minority Interest -70 -64 -71 -79 Accounts payable 394 439 477 533
NPAT less MI, reported 7,602 6,918 7,705 8,550 Short-term debt 1,014 943 1,009 1,080
NPAT less MI, adjusted (1) 7,602 6,918 7,705 8,550 Other ST liabilities 761 761 761 761
Total current liabilities 2,169 2,143 2,248 2,374
EBITDA 8,125 7,398 8,192 9,051 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0
EPS basic reported, VND 5,671 5,137 5,737 6,365 Other LT liabilities 56 56 56 56
EPS basic adjusted (1), VND 5,671 5,137 5,737 6,365 Total Liabilities 2,225 2,199 2,304 2,430
EPS fully diluted, VND 5,671 5,137 5,737 6,365
DPS, VND 4,188 5,771 5,211 5,832 Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0
DPS/EPS (%) 74% 112% 91% 92% Paid-in capital 13,288 13,288 13,288 13,288
(1) Adjusted for one-offs Share premium 0 0 0 0
RATIOS 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F Retained earnings 11,713 13,040 13,086 14,702
Growth Other equity -7 0 0 0
Revenue growth 18.1% -7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Minority interest 236 300 371 449
Associate profits growth 34.9% -9.8% 13.4% 12.1% Total equity 25,230 26,628 26,745 28,440
PBT growth 32.2% -8.9% 10.9% 10.7% Liabilities & equity 27,455 28,827 29,048 30,870
EPS growth 32.7% -9.4% 11.7% 11.0%
Y/E shares out, mn 1,329 1,329 1,329 1,329
Profitability Y/E treasury shares, mn 0 0 0 0
Gross Profit Margin 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% CASH FLOW (VND bn) 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Op Profit, (EBIT) Margin -0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 1.3% Beginning Cash Balance 280 294 273 292
EBITDA Margin 171.1% 167.5% 173.4% 179.1% Net Income 7,602 6,918 7,705 8,550
NPAT-MI Margin 160.1% 156.7% 163.1% 169.1% Dep. & amortization 287 294 301 308
ROE 31.4% 27.0% 29.2% 31.5% Change in Working Capital 38 234 -93 -86
ROA 29.2% 24.8% 26.9% 28.8% Other adjustments -7,036 -6,244 -7,057 -7,931
Cash from Operations 101 1,201 856 842
Efficiency
Days Inventory on Hand 134 149 144 141 Capital Expenditures, net -130 -130 -130 -130
Days Accts. Receivable 278 282 249 241 Investments, net 5,273 4,544 6,896 6,163
Days Accts. Payable 32 40 40 42 Cash from Investments 5,143 4,414 6,765 6,033
Cash Conversion Days 381 391 352 341
Dividends Paid -5,997 -5,565 -7,669 -6,924
Liquidity ∆ in Share Capital 0 0 0 0
Current Ratio 8.4 9.5 8.9 8.9 ∆ in LT debt 0 0 0 0
Quick Ratio 7.6 8.6 8.0 8.1 ∆ in ST debt 767 -71 66 71
Cash Ratio 5.9 7.1 6.5 6.6 Other financing cash flows -0 0 0 0
Debt / Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash from Financing -5,230 -5,636 -7,602 -6,854
Debt / Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Debt / Equity -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Net Change in Cash 14 -21 19 20
Interest Coverage N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Ending Cash Balance 294 273 292 313
Source: VEA, VCSC
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VCSC Rating System
HOLD
Stock ratings are set based on projected total shareholder return (TSR), defined as (target price – current price)/current
price + dividend yield, and are not related to market performance.
Unless otherwise specified, these performance parameters are set with a 12-month horizon. Movement in share prices may
cause a temporary mismatch between the latest published rating and projected TSR for a stock based on its market price
and the latest published target price.
Target prices are generally based on the analyst's assessment of the stock's fair value over a 12-month horizon. However,
the target price may differ from the analyst's fair value if the analyst believes that the market will not price the stock in line
with assessed fair value over the specified time horizon.
Risks: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely
affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. For investment advice, trad e
execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative.
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Disclaimer
Analyst Certification of Independence
HOLD
We, Han Mai and Nam Hoang, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject
securities or issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive
compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm
revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.
VCSC and its officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment)
and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment).VCSC may have, within the last three years, served as
manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities
mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in
relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
Copyright 2023 Viet Capital Securities Company "VCSC". All rights reserved. This report has been prepared on the basis of information
believed to be reliable at the time of publication. VCSC makes no representation or warranty regarding the completeness and accuracy of such
information. Opinions, estimates and projection expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication
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Contacts
Corporate HOLD
www.vcsc.com.vn
Head Office Hanoi Branch
Bitexco Financial Tower, 15th Floor 109 Tran Hung Dao
2 Hai Trieu Street, District 1, HCMC Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi
+84 28 3914 3588 +84 24 6262 6999
Research
Research Team: +84 28 3914 3588 Alastair Macdonald, Head of Research, ext 105
[email protected] [email protected]
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