Economic-News: Daily Market Review

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1st March 2023 DAILY MARKET REVIEW


9

Interbank
KEY PAKISTAN STATS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1-Mar-23
Rates-PKR-Rs
Open 261.50
Items Period Unit Figure Last Day
ECONOMIC-NEWS High 266.00 Close-LDC
Foreign Exchange-FX-Reserves
Low 261.50 261.50
FX-Reserves-WoW 17-Feb-23 USD bn 8.726
Close 266.00
 Moody`s cuts Pakistan credit ratings to Caa3 Yesterday,
FE-25 Import Financing Jan, 2022 USD mn 925.00 DAILY USD/PKR SWAP YIELDS-%

SBP Forward/Swap Position Dec, 2022 USD bn (5.29) Moody`s Investors Service downgraded Pakistan`s local Swap
Change in
PERIOD SWAP Implied
Premiums
Net International Reserves-NIR (EST) 17-Feb-23 USD bn (29.70) PKR Yield
and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt
1-Week 0.2900 (0.0311) 10.25%
Kerb USD/PKR 1-Mar-23 Bid/Ask 266.50/269.50
ratings by 2-notches to Caa-3 from Caa-1 but improved 2-Week 0.3900 (0.0181) 8.39%
Real Effective Exchange Rate-REER Jan, 2022 Rs 92.75
1-Month 0.6150 0.0053 7.33%
Roshan Digital Account-RDA 7MFY23 USD bn 5.69 the outlook to stable from negative.
2-Month 1.2500 (0.0691) 7.53%
Consumer Price Index-CPI  The international rating agency 1 of the top 3-global rating 3-Month 2.4500 (0.1700) 8.62%
Sensitive Price Index-SPI-WoW 23-Feb-23 bps 241.29 4-Month 3.5000 (0.2601) 8.77%
firms said its decision to downgrade the ratings is driven
CPI (YoY) Feb, 2023 % 31.50 5-Month 4.7500 (0.2444) 9.27%
CPI- (MoM) Feb, 2023 % 4.30 by an assessment that Pakistan`s increasingly fragile 6-Month 6.2500 (0.2858) 10.01%

CPI-Urban-YoY Feb, 2023 % 28.80 9-Month 8.0000 (0.1690) 9.32%


liquidity and external position significantly raises default
CPI-Rural-YoY Feb, 2023 % 35.60 1-Year 10.0000 (0.3895) 9.35%
risks to a level consistent with a Caa-3 rating. MONEY Market-
PAK CPI-YoY munus US CPI-YoY 31.50%-6.40% % 25.10 MM Rates-%
1-Mar-23

Broad Money Supply-M2 Growth:  In particular, the country`s FX-Reserves have fallen to Open 17.25 Last Day
Close-LDC
1 Jul 22 To 27 High 17.60
M2 Growth-YoY % 0.44 extremely low levels, far lower than necessary to cover its
Jan 23 Low 16.80 16.75
1 Jul 22 To 27
Net Govt. Sector Borrowing Rs bn 1,618.39 import needs and external debt obligations over the Close 17.50
Jan 23
GOVT. Borrowing for budgetary 1 Jul 22 To 27 KIBOR AND PKRV RATES
28-Feb-23
Rs bn 1,626.11 immediate and medium term. (%)
support from SBP Jan 23
1 Jul 22 To 27 Tenor KIBOR-% PKRV Rates-%
Private Sector Credit-PSC Rs bn 435.04
Jan 23
1-M 18.88 18.74
Govt. Foreign Commercial Banks
1HFY-23 USD mn 200.00
Borrowing 3-M 19.60 19.53
Policy Rate 6-M 19.81 19.82

SBP Policy Rate FY-23 YTD % 17.00 12-M 19.90 19.93

Pakistan Investment Bonds-PIB


SBP O/N REPO & Reserve REPO Rate Floor & Ceiling % 16.00-18.00
16-Feb-23 1-Mar-23
SBP PR minus USD FED Fund Rate 17.00%-4.50% % 12.50 Period Cut Off
Bid-% Ask -%
Yields-%
1-Year KIBOR minus 1-Year LIBOR 19.77-5.62% % 14.15 3-Yrs 13.8360 18.30 18.15

FX-Economic Data 5-Yrs 13.3500 15.90 15.80

Foreign Direct Iivestment-FDI 7MFY-23 USD mn 683.50 10-Yrs-


12.9500 15.00 14.20
Fixed
Home Remittance 7MFY-23 USD bn 16.006 Floating 17.8255 102 101.75
Trade Bal-S/(D) 7MFY-23 USD bn (17.32) 15-yrs* - 15.27
CAB-S/(D) 7MFY-23 USD bn (3.80) 20-yrs* - 15.25
Special Convertible Rupee Account- Market Treasury Bills-MTB
SCRA
23-Feb-23 1-Mar-23
SCRA-Cumulative inflow/(outflow) July 22 till date USD bn (97.58) Tenor Cut Off
Bid-% Ask-%
Yields-%
SCRA-MTB+PIB inflow/(outflow) July 22 till date USD bn (41.44) 3-M 19.9500 19.75 19.55
Govt., Circular Debt & External 6-M 19.9000 17.15 16.80
Liabilities
12-M 19.7900 17.15 16.80
Govt. Domestic Debt & Liabilities As at 30-11-2022 Rs trn 33.60 Note: * The secondary yields for 15 & 20-
years Bonds are not available, so instead of
External Debt As at 30-9-2022 USD bn 126.914 leaving it blank, we inputed PKRV Rates.

Central Debt As at 30-11-2022 Rs trn 50.903

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