GTFS 3ed Ebook PDF
GTFS 3ed Ebook PDF
GTFS 3ed Ebook PDF
by Nathan Lewis
Copyright 2017 by Nathan Lewis. All rights reserved. No part of this book
may be reproduced or transmitted in any form of by any means electronic
or mechanical, including photocopying, printing, recording, or by any
information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing
from Canyon Maple Publishing.
Ayn Rand
Although gold and silver are not by nature money, money is by nature gold
and silver.
Karl Marx
Table of Contents
part of the economy which money has to measure. A measuring stick should
not be part of what it measures.
The use of gold as jewelry does not violate this principle. Many
advocates of gold think that people chose it as money because it is beautiful
and shiny as a bauble, and has some very limited uses in electronics—
because “it conducts electricity and love.” But as Richard Vigilante has put
it, “Money is not valuable because it is really jewelry; jewelry is valuable
because it is really money.”
All such theoretical observations, as interesting as they are, give way in
Lewis’s narrative to a long sweep of history in which the gold standard
accompanies humanity’s greatest industrial and economic
accomplishments. The climax is the worldwide spread of gold as a measure
of value that fostered the 18th and 19th century triumphs of the industrial
revolution and the British empire. Enabled were 200 years of
unprecedented growth and progress and centuries of perpetual
government bonds and “consols” in many nations bearing interest rates
under 4 percent.
In the eyes of the conventional wisdom, though, all the thousands of
years of gold serving as a felicitous measuring stick for commerce are
countervailed by the notion that the gold standard caused the Great
Depression. As Lewis shows, the arguments are all incoherent. The
Keynesian-monetarists believe the Great Depression was caused by a
collapse of the money supply—deflation—while the Austrians and
“austerians” contend that the crash was an inevitable effect of runaway
money creation—inflation.
Scores of books have been written to expound both arguments, their
fugues, fusions, and variations. On all sides, the accounts are so complex
and enigmatic and the retrospective policy advice so intricate that it makes
monetary policy essentially impossible to follow in the midst of economic
crises. In the view of the academic analysts, monetary policy in practice
turns out always to be wrong or inadequate or mistimed despite its conduct
by the leading monetary experts.
The canonical monetarist Milton Friedman epitomized the baffling
contradictions and elusive signals in 1998, when he wrote that “low interest
rates are generally a sign that money has been tight, as in Japan; high
interest rates, that money has been easy…After inflation and rising interest
rates in the 1970s, and disinflation and falling rates in the 1980s, I thought
the fallacy…was dead. Apparently old fallacies never die.” But low interest
rates can also signal easy money and high rates tight money. If it takes a
genius to fathom all the paradoxical or even tautological truths in real time,
perhaps monetarism is too enigmatic to be followed. The price of gold
remains a more readable and reliable guide because it is not a part of the
economy it measures.
By contrast, in his historical narrative, Lewis enlists in what might be
called the information theory of economics, which focuses less on the direct
iv Gold: The Final Standard
George Gilder
Tyringham, Massachusetts
27 April 2017
Preface
This is a wonky book. People new to the topic of money and monetary
history would be better served by my two previous books, Gold: The Once
and Future Money (2007), and Gold: The Monetary Polaris (2013). In the
future, I would like to do a book that is shorter and more accessible to the
newcomer than those. But: first things first.
Many people noticed that the theory and narrative of those first two
books did not coincide with today’s conventional wisdom. Indeed they did
not; there would hardly have been a reason to write them if they did. This
book aims to provide a clean narrative of monetary history, from ancient
times to the present day. Along the way, a great many counterclaims are
examined, in a manner that is necessarily brief, but, I hope, adequate to
address the issues in an effective way.
I assume that the reader has already read those previous books and
absorbed their contents. Topics discussed in depth in those books will get
light treatment here, probably too light to serve as anything but a vague
hint to those who are not already familiar with the subject. This book has
some overlap with the others, particularly in the use of graphs also found in
Gold: The Monetary Polaris. Readers of that book should also find much new
material, for each of the periods represented.
It is often claimed that people have been using gold and silver as money
“for five thousand years.” This is true; but few people know anything about
that long heritage. Typically, it is summarized by a few brief anecdotes
about Greeks and Romans, followed by a leap to the sixteenth or
seventeenth centuries. Yet, on closer investigation, the amazing thing is
how common and widespread gold and silver were throughout the world,
among any civilizations complex enough to mine metals and engage in
monetary exchange. Gold and silver, in bullion form, were the premier high-
quality money for two thousand years before the first coins were minted in
the seventh century B.C. After the fall of western Rome, the history of
money in the West was dominated by the success of the Byzantine solidus, a
gold coin that retained its original standard for over seven centuries. It
spawned many imitators, including the Arab dinar, the Italian florin and
ducat, and second-generation copies including Spanish escudos and Dutch
gulden. In the East, the Chinese began a four-century experience with paper
currency.
The Bank of England’s history of currency reliability during the
eighteenth and nineteenth centuries eventually served as the role model for
all currency-issuing banks, and later central banks. New data from the Bank
vi Gold: The Final Standard
of England shows the evolution of the Bank’s balance sheet over the
entirety of its history. This should help dispel the erroneous legend and lore
that has accumulated regarding the times before 1914. The United States
rejected the monopoly central bank model, exemplified by the Bank of
England, three times before it was finally introduced via the Federal
Reserve in 1913. Even then, the Federal Reserve did not have an effective
monopoly until the end of the 1930s. The United States’ experience with
“free banking” can also serve as a model for the future.
The Classical Gold Standard era of the latter nineteenth century is often
referred to, in admiring or sometimes critical terms, but little is known
about it. Although many books have been written on the topic, readers of
these books are often left even more confused than when they began, this
confusion worsened by a mistaken confidence. In fact it was a simple
system, and easy to understand, although this simplicity was clouded by the
complex variety of operating techniques common to central banks of the
time. If the Classical Gold Standard era is to be a model for future imitation,
or perhaps a cautionary example in some particulars, we had better know
something about it.
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944, has inspired a cacophony of wildly
contradictory “interpretations.” I sort through the major claims, and
evaluate their merits. None of the major interpretations are satisfactory in
themselves, but they point the way to a conclusion that is straightforward,
the most common view of those living at the time, and also a dominant view
since then.
The Bretton Woods era, 1944-1971, presents a strange combination of
stellar success – it was the most prosperous period since 1914 – and also
puzzling failure. The reasons for this failure are actually well known and
recognized, but economists today are still hesitant to admit just how
confused their profession had become in those days. They would rather
repeat the old nonsense for decade after decade than admit the
inadequacies of their predecessors.
Our floating fiat currency environment today emerged from the
collapse of Bretton Woods. It was wholly undesired and unintentional. The
record of our time has been one of stagnation and erosion, punctuated by
episodes of real crisis. The less-developed world has often had it even
worse, with many cases of currency crisis or outright hyperinflation.
Technological development has continued nevertheless. But, unlike past
eras, this has not been accompanied by soaring prosperity in general.
Academics today swear up and down that today’s floating fiat
environment is somehow the best of all possible worlds. And yet, if that
were true, there should have been some evidence of it over the past forty-
five years, and there is not. Central banks do not create any useful goods or
services. The floating currencies that arise from central bank foolishness
merely create difficulties for those that do.
Preface vii
At some point, the time may come to construct a new monetary order.
Many governments, including those of China and Russia, have been actively
preparing. This effort will need to be informed by correct understanding, if
we are to avoid the kind of failures built into Bretton Woods in 1944.
Without the confidence that comes from clear vision, people may be too
insecure even to begin.
Nathan Lewis
March 2017
viii Gold: The Final Standard
Chapter 1:
The Study of Currency History
History is complicated. Many people did a great many things. There is
this factor and that factor, and differing interpretations. Any historian has
to distill down this great mass of happenings into some representation of
what was important, and what was not.
Histories involving money and finance tend to be even more
complicated. The first complication is the inclusion of “finance”; this
includes equity and debt finance. Debt finance means, basically, borrowing
and lending. We will make our first simplification by deliberately omitting
discussion of finance.
The world of debt finance not only includes thousands of loan-making
banks, in over 150 countries, plus the usual bonds, but also all manner of
further complications including such things as money-market funds,
structured investment vehicles, and securitized debt instruments including
mortgage-backed securities, collateralized loan obligations, collateralized
debt obligations, and other such acronymic confections which are
continuously invented by financial technicians whenever it seems
advantageous to do so. On top of this is a further layer of derivatives
obligations. It would take a rather large book just to describe, in a
taxonomic sort of way, the various financial instruments in regular use
today and their basic characteristics, without even taking up the question of
their history.
And yet we can see that, in the United States to take one example, all of
this financial complication takes place with one uniform currency, the
dollar. In Europe, it takes place with the euro. The currency itself stands
apart from the entire process of finance. Central banks, which are now the
sole issuers of this currency, today are mostly not involved in commercial
bank activity at all. There were times of boom and bust, in the U.S. during
the 1834 to 1914 period, or Britain from 1700 to 1914, and a great many
thrilling tales could be told of the details of those times. But, the monetary
story is much simpler: the U.S. dollar, or British pound, was linked to gold,
with a few well-documented lapses. In the U.S. case, the parity ratio was
$20.67 per ounce of gold. In Britain, it was £3.89 per ounce. The history of
the dollar or pound could be summarized simply as: it was linked to gold.
All of the expansions and revulsions of finance, or more broadly, business
and the economy, can be safely segregated into a separate topic.
2 Gold: The Final Standard
A See Gold: The Monetary Polaris, Chapter 2, for an extended discussion of this topic.
The Study of Currency History 3
system is, at a fundamental level, very much like today’s “euro standard”
systems, except for the choice of the standard. Ideally, a gold standard
system would be operated much like today’s euro-linked currency boards,
and in practice, before 1914, they usually were.
In a fixed-value system, the supply of currency (the base money supply)
is a residual. The correct supply is the supply that produces the desired
outcome, of a stable value relationship (a fixed exchange rate) with the
standard of value. If the supply is insufficient, causing the currency to rise in
value above its benchmark, the supply is increased. If the supply is in
excess, causing a decline in currency value compared to the benchmark,
supply is reduced. Although currency managers with a fixed-value policy
have quite a few tools to achieve their goals, and typically do not express
their operating mechanisms in these terms, nevertheless that is the
ultimate result. B
The demand for a currency might increase by some large amount, for
some reason. Often, this coincides with economic growth, and perceived
currency reliability. To maintain the fixed-value system, the supply of the
currency must also expand by the equivalent amount. In 1775, the total
base money supply in the American Colonies has been estimated at $12
million, consisting primarily of gold and silver coins of foreign manufacture.
In 1900, the base money supply was $1,954 million, mostly in the form of
paper banknotes, an increase of 163 times. During this period (ignoring a
minor adjustment in 1834), the value of the dollar was the same:
$20.67/ounce of gold.
The fact that base money in the U.S. expanded by 163 times during this
125-year period is not, in itself, terribly relevant. The quantitative
expansion was a residual outcome of the fixed-value system. If the figure
was, instead, 12 times or 52 times or 275 times, our conclusion would be
the same: that such a figure was the appropriate increase in supply to meet
the increasing demand for money, thus producing the stable parity value.
We know it was not “too much” or “too little” because the dollar did indeed
maintain its gold parity value. Thus, it was “just right.” During the same
1775-1900 period, the Bank of England’s base money supply increased by
7.5 times, a figure that was, for Britain, also “just right.”
The dismal record of central bank failure to maintain fixed parity
values, especially since 1944, shows that even monetary specialists with
responsibility for these matters do not have an adequate understanding of
the proper operating mechanisms of an automatic fixed-value system. The
simplest version is a currency board; in terms of gold, it would be a “100%
reserve” or “warehouse receipt” system. Let’s assume that Country A’s
central bank (or other independent currency issuer) maintains the value of
a currency at A$1 per euro. We will assume for now that the central bank
B See Gold: The Monetary Polaris, for a discussion of the daily operations of fixed-
value systems, including gold standard systems.
4 Gold: The Final Standard
has no capital, and that it does not actually hold any euro base money, in the
form of euro banknotes and coins, or a deposit with the ECB. Rather, its
assets consist of euro deposits in foreign commercial banks (such as a large
German bank), and foreign euro-denominated government bonds. Initially,
its balance sheet looks like this:
The opposite occurs if the value of the A$ is sagging versus the euro,
such that the market value is around A$1.01 per euro. The central bank
offers to buy A$/sell euros in unlimited size. Again, the central bank takes
no discretionary action. The size and timing of transactions is entirely
determined by independent market participants willing to transact with the
central bank. Because the value of the A$ is sagging vs. the euro,
independent market participants sell A$1.0 million to the central bank, and
take €1.0 million in return. Total base money falls from A$11.0 million back
to A$10.0 million:
The Study of Currency History 5
Nevertheless, the central bank was able, even to the very end, to
exchange euros and A$ at the 1:1 parity.
Although a “100% reserve” or “warehouse receipt” gold standard
system has been rather rare in history, the basic principles are essentially
identical. Let’s assume a parity value of A$100 per ounce of gold. The bank’s
balance sheet looks like this:
Assets Liabilities
gold bullion 1,000,000 oz. Banknotes and coins A$50m
government bonds none Deposits A$50m
total assets A$100m total liabilities A$100m
The basic operation is the same. Any private market participant may
take A$100 to the central bank and get an ounce of gold in return; or take
an ounce of gold to the central bank and get A$100 in return. In practice,
when the value of the A$ is sagging vs. its gold parity such that the market
price is A$101 per oz., then the central bank becomes the cheapest seller of
gold (at A$100/oz.) and gold outflows ensue. When the value of the A$ is
rising vs. its gold parity such that the market price is A$99/oz., the central
bank becomes the highest bidder for gold (at A$100/oz.), and gold inflows
ensue. An inflow of 1 oz. of gold results in an increase in the monetary base
by A$100, necessary to finance the purchase. An outflow of 1 oz. of gold
results in the receipt of A$100 in payment, and a reduction in the monetary
base by that amount.
Just as is the case with the euro-based currency board, the central bank
takes no discretionary action. The system is entirely “automatic”: its activity
(changes in assets and liabilities) is determined by the actions of
independent market participants and the market value of the A$ compared
to its euro or gold parity. The monetary base is entirely a residual of this
process, and thus is also generated “automatically.”
6 Gold: The Final Standard
In the example of the euro currency board, the central bank does not
actually hold any euro base money (banknotes or deposits at the ECB) as
assets. Government bonds can be easily sold for euros, and commercial
bank deposits serve as an alternative to direct deposits at the ECB. Much
the same is commonly true of gold standard systems, where a large portion
of assets might be held in the form of interest-bearing government bonds,
which can be sold for bullion if the need arose. (In this example, the A$-
denominated bonds are linked to gold, because the A$ itself is linked to
gold.)
Assets Liabilities
gold bullion 500,000 oz. Banknotes and coins A$50m
government bonds A$50m Deposits A$50m
total assets A$100m total liabilities A$100m
above the par value), it means the money supply is too large ... and
therefore must be held in check. When the value of gold drops below
par, it means that the money supply needs to be increased. 2
Once again, the story of currencies, and their economic effects, are
described by changes in value, not changes in supply.
Many times, especially after 1950, countries might have had a fixed-
value policy, but the management and operation of the system was
incorrect in some way. This is typically easy to identify. We know that a
system was being managed correctly because it worked. It was successful in
maintaining the market value of the currency at the policy benchmark,
precisely, quietly, without difficulties, and without reliance on trade and
capital controls. Currency boards today have this characteristic. We know
that a system was not managed correctly because it fails: there was a
“currency crisis” in which the value of the currency deviates, often suddenly
and by a large amount, from its standard of value.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900
At times – especially in the 1950s and 1960s, and also among “dollar-
pegged” emerging market currencies in the 1980s and 1990s – a currency is
not being managed correctly. The operating mechanism is not an automatic
system like a currency board, with no discretionary input. Rather, a fixed-
value policy is combined with some form of discretionary “domestic”
currency management, typically within the framework of an “interest rate
target” or perhaps some kind of quantitative target. Thus, the base money
supply is no longer an automatic residual of the fixed-value mechanism, but
becomes independent. With no mechanism (base money adjustment) to
maintain the value of the currency at its value parity, the currency thus
The Study of Currency History 9
A Or nickels; in 2015, the U.S. nickel was 75% copper, while the penny was 97.5%
zinc. At a price of $3.00/lb., it would take fifty tons of copper to purchase a $300,000
house. At a price of $1,300/oz. of gold, it would take 230 ounces of gold (about
seven kilograms, in a volume of about 0.362 liters) to purchase the same house.
14 Gold: The Final Standard
Mesopotamia
The use of gold, silver and other monetary metals, potentially as money,
predates the use of writing; thus, it is hard to say when their use as money
began. The first known examples of writing date from the thirty-fifth to
thirty-second centuries B.C. in Sumer, the first known civilization in
Mesopotamia. The population of the Sumerian city of Uruk, in 3400 B.C., has
been estimated at 20,000. These early forms of writing are sometimes
termed “proto-literate,” and consist of lists and accounting. Sumerian
writing proper – a symbolic representation of the spoken language – began
16 Gold: The Final Standard
in the thirty-first century B.C. Copper smelting dates from about 5500 B.C.
Since gold is often found mixed with copper, it is not surprising that the first
gold artifacts, at Nahal Kana in today’s Israel, come from the early fifth
millennium B.C. 4 Gold artifacts at Varna in today’s Bulgaria have been dated
to 4600-4200 B.C. Silver is somewhat more difficult to extract than gold and
copper. The earliest known evidence of silver extraction dates from the late
fourth millennium B.C., in Turkey.
In ancient Sumerian times, barley, lead, copper or bronze, tin, silver and
gold – in ascending order of value – served as money. 5 Of this list, only
barley is not a metallic element, and served as the smallest small change.
The mina was an early unit of weight. When standardized in 2150 B.C.
during the Akkadian Empire under the reign of Naram-Sin, the mina was
about 504 grams – similar to the modern pound of 454 grams. The shekel
was one-sixtieth of a mina, around 8.40 grams.
Sumerians had a currency of standardized shell rings beginning from
around 3500 B.C. By the late fourth and early third millennium B.C., this had
evolved to a well-organized system of exchange based primarily on copper.
The actual transaction was often in the form of barter, but the values of the
bartered goods were expressed in terms of a common benchmark of value.
Thus, lumber worth one mina of copper could be traded for hides worth
one mina of copper. Later in the third millennium B.C., silver and barley
became the main media of exchange. 6 At its height around 2900 B.C., the
city of Uruk had an estimated 50,000-80,000 residents, the largest in the
world. For some time during the twenty-seventh century B.C., the city was
ruled by the legendary king Gilgamesh.
Between 2800 B.C. and 2500 B.C., silver began to be cast into rings or
coils of standard weights between 1 and 60 shekels, used primarily for
large-scale purchases. The “rings” were essentially short coils; neither could
be worn, but could be easily cut and subdivided, if desired. Small ingots
likely served as a larger form of money. Most texts indicate that the silver
was weighed, but some texts indicate the use of rings with a uniform
weight. 7
Beginning about 2700 B.C., Sumerian cuneiform clay tablets show
deeds of sale, including sales of fields, houses and slaves. Texts recording
loan agreements begin from around 2400 B.C. 8 More detailed descriptions
of monetary and commercial transactions are found in documents dating
from the Third Dynasty of Ur (Ur III), circa 2112 B.C. to 2004 B.C. Ur was
likely the largest city in the world at that time, with a population estimated
at 65,000.
The historian J. N. Postgate described early Sumerian accounting:
During the Ur III period, it was recorded that one shekel of gold cost ten
shekels of silver. 15 Beginning in the early second millennium B.C., gold was
mentioned sporadically, in large-scale transactions such as capital for
business ventures. 16
Besides inventing writing, the Sumerians also introduced the first
known examples of bicameral legislature, schools (they taught writing), the
library, and the wheel.
The founding of Babylon, about 250 kilometers upstream of Ur on the
Euphrates river, dates from roughly the twenty-third century B.C. Sumer, as
an independent state, was absorbed by Babylon around 1700 B.C. Babylon
was in turn dominated by nearby Assyria beginning in 911 B.C. These were
independent states with a shared Mesopotamian culture. After a brief spell
of independence beginning in 604 B.C. (the Chaldean Dynasty), Babylon was
conquered and absorbed by Persia in 539 B.C.
From 1770 to 1670 B.C., the city of Babylon was likely the largest in the
world, with a population estimated around 65,000. Silver and gold
continued to serve as money, by measured weight in transactions and as a
standard of account. Banking, in particular, became more sophisticated as it
evolved from its Sumerian foundations. Temples and royal houses became
major centers for banking, taking deposits in grain and precious metals,
making payment via deposits, and making loans. The Code of Hammurabi
(1754 B.C.) contained an extensive body of law concerning lending and
debt. 17
Private banking houses established themselves, gradually gaining a
greater share of business from the temples. The names of these early
banking houses are not known, but by the seventh century B.C. the
‘Grandsons of Egibi’ gained prominence in the Babylonian banking industry.
The ‘Sons of Marashcu,’ operating out of Nippur, not only engaged in
banking operations and lending, but also involved themselves in renting
and leasing, tax-farming and the management of large estates, constructed
irrigation canals and charged fees for their use, and had a partial monopoly
on beer. 18
By the fourteenth century B.C., gold commonly served not only in
transactions, but also as the unit of account, primary to silver rather than
The Ancient World, 3500 B.C.–400 A.D. 19
subsidiary. This may have reflected trade with nearby Egypt, which mined
large amounts of gold but had few silver resources. 19
achieve victory, to pay off neighboring hostile kingdoms. Despite some very
impressive burial artifacts, the pharaohs were constantly in need of gold to
maintain state control. The gold of Egypt did not remain in their hands. The
famous gold coffin of Tutankhamen (1332-1323 B.C.) contains an awesome
110 kilograms of gold, the largest single gold artifact found in Egypt. But the
mines of Egypt are thought to have produced at least 1,000 kilograms per
year at their peak around 1450 B.C., and perhaps multiples of that. 25
Historian Paul Johnson described:
As the mines ran out, or were lost to foreign control, the New Kingdom
fell in the twelfth century B.C. 27
With gold production monopolized by the pharaohs to pay for their
external campaigns, internal trade in Egypt was conducted largely upon the
basis of grain. The problem of denomination (it is difficult to make large
payments in physical grain) was solved by the extensive use of grain-based
banking. Farmers deposited their harvest in large grain banks. These
deposits were then used in payment of taxes, and also in many forms of
private payments. Just as with banks today, “the payments were effected by
the transfer from one account to another without money passing,“
according to historian Michael Rostovtzeff. 28 These grain banking and
deposit payment systems grew into systems that extended nationwide,
achieving a level of efficiency and sophistication “as to be almost beyond
the credence of modern man, who too readily assumes that the use of grain
as money must necessarily imply a primitive economic system.” 29 One
reason for the popularity of banking transactions was that a record was
kept of payment, which could be useful in legal disputes.
Egyptian grain banking continued even after the widespread use of
silver coinage after 600 B.C. among Egypt’s trading partners, and even after
Egypt fell under Greek rule beginning in 332 B.C., with the Greek-speaking
Ptolemaic pharaohs established at the new capital of Alexandria. Although
the new Greek kings introduced the Greek silver coinage system, they also
developed Egyptian grain banking still further by bringing all state banks
into a network controlled by what amounted to a central bank stationed in
The Ancient World, 3500 B.C.–400 A.D. 21
For over two thousand years before the widespread use of coinage,
monetary exchange and sophisticated banking systems had existed in the
earliest known civilizations. Even from the earliest days, silver, gold and, in
a subsidiary role, copper and its alloys, were the preferred form of money,
along with certain grains. This limited range of monetary commodities
resolved down still further. Although payment could be made in a number
of forms, the unit of account was either silver or gold, in essence no
different than Europe of the nineteenth century and, extended still further,
22 Gold: The Final Standard
the Bretton Woods period of the mid-twentieth century. Even the exception
– Egypt – proved the rule. Egypt used grain internally not because gold and
silver were not considered money, but because they were necessary
payment in foreign trade.
Despite numerous intriguing precedents, in Mesopotamia and the
ancient Mediterranean region, China and India, historians today generally
recognize the first use of coinage to have occurred in Lydia, now western
Turkey, in the seventh century B.C. Before then, in the same region for over
two thousand years, gold, silver and other metals, in any form, had been
used as money based on commodity weight.
In Mesopotamia, for centuries, a shekel of silver was a measure of
actual weight. It was never “devalued.” Arguably, it could not be. The
purpose of the first coins was not to produce standardized weights of
metals, but rather, to attempt to pass a lesser amount of gold or silver as if it
contained the represented weight, by stamping it with the name of the
represented weight, and adding a government decree that it should be
treated as such. The first Lydian coins were stamped with a symbol that
showed that they were to trade “at face value,” or ad talum rather than by
weight of contained metals. The earliest Lydian coins do not contain the
metals indicated by their face value. 33 The first coin was also the first
example of coinage debasement. The Lydian coinage also began the pattern
of government monopolization of coin production, which included
government oversight of mining, all elements needed to cause coins to
trade ad talum rather than by weight.
Even in later years (after 500 B.C.) when coinage became popular in the
Mediterranean region, records in Mesopotamia indicate that foreign-origin
coins were often used in payment, but only according to their actual weight
of contained metal. When one is making payment by metal weight, the form
of the metal is not important. A gold necklace, ring or armband could serve
as easily as an ingot or coin. Even at the level of the state, larger quantities
of gold and silver could be formed into public monuments and decoration, a
sort of grand public jewelry. If necessary, these also could be used as
money. The Athena Parthenos was a statue of the Greek goddess Athena,
created around 447 B.C. The statue contained 44 talents of gold, equivalent
to about 1,100 kilograms. The gold was removed in 296 B.C. to pay for the
defense of Athens against invasion by Macedon.
Although gold and silver jewelry commonly sells for much more than
its contained metal value in U.S. jewelry stores today – it has a high jewelry
fabrication premium – that is more of an exception than the rule.
Throughout India, Thailand and elsewhere in Asia, the cost of gold jewelry
is today only about 2% higher than the value of contained precious metals.
This was likely the pattern also throughout preindustrial human history. A
2% jewelry fabrication premium is actually not much different than the
retail fabrication costs of standardized one-ounce gold coins, such as the
popular Krugerrands or American Eagles. Plus, unlike a coin, it makes good
The Ancient World, 3500 B.C.–400 A.D. 23
jewelry. When monetary metals trade by weight, jewelry does not have to
be melted into ingots or stamped into coins to make payment, but can be
used in payment in its present state.
Nevertheless, coinage had an advantage, in that it did not need to be
constantly weighed, at least for domestic trade. Each coin could be treated
as equivalent to all the others. The government demanded that one do so –
the first “legal tender” laws. As long as the value of the coin did not deviate
too much from its indicated value – either because the contained metal was
close to the value indicated, or because the supply was controlled such that
the coins traded above their metal weight at the indicated value, much as
gold-linked paper currencies would in later centuries – it was an effective
advance.
A real king Midas ruled Lydia in the late eighth century B.C. The natural
deposits of electrum (a mixture of gold and silver) found in the Patroclus
river near Sardia were said to be due to his golden touch. The first Lydian
coins were made of electrum, and date from perhaps 640-620 B.C. They
were made from an artificial electrum with a higher silver content than the
natural electrum of the Patroclus. Given the potential for abuse inherent in
electrum coins, it is no surprise that, soon after, Lydian coinage was
separated into pure gold and silver coins, during the reign of Croesus (560-
547 B.C.). The implied gold:silver ratio was 1:13.5. 34
The Lydian coinage was imitated throughout the Hellenic realm.
Coinage had already been in common use long enough to undergo a coinage
reform by Solon of Athens, beginning around 594 B.C. 35 The drachma’s
value was lowered from 70 per mina (about 6.1 grams) to 100 (4.3 grams).
It was apparently intended as a means to reduce the rate of interest on
loans, and to reduce burdens on a broad swath of poor debtors. With the
beginning of coinage came the beginning of coinage debasement; and the
beginnings of the idea of using this debasement not only as a means of state
funding, but as a device for “economic management” on many levels.
Solon also forgave debts, and eliminated debtor enslavement. He
insisted that the coinage would thereafter remain of unchanging value and
metal content. This began a long period in which the Greek silver coinage
became one of the most reliable in the region. Copper coins, known as
chalkoi, also circulated. In the Athenian system, eight chalkoi were
equivalent to one obol, a small silver coin, and six obol were equivalent to a
silver drachma, which contained about 4.3 grams of silver. Larger two, four
and ten drachma coins were also minted. Gold was not minted into coins at
first, but traded in bullion form as a grander sort of money. The Greek
affinity for silver coinage reflected the abundance of silver mines under
Athenian control. When access to these mines was cut off in 407 B.C. by
Sparta, Athens minted a series of 84,000 gold coins, with the gold coming
from a statue of the goddess Nike adorning the Acropolis. In the midst of
those long years of war, in 406 B.C., the Athenian government attempted to
24 Gold: The Final Standard
pass a series of copper coins with a thin plating of silver, with predictable
consequences. Aristophanes, in The Frogs (405 B.C.), said: 36
As early as 600 B.C., Lycurgus banned gold and silver from Sparta, and –
as this was more than seven centuries before the invention of paper in
China – replaced it with a coinage made of iron.
From their beginnings in Lydia, throughout the ancient world,
governments monopolized the minting of coins, in a vertically-integrated
The Ancient World, 3500 B.C.–400 A.D. 25
Rome
The first bronze as coins weighed one Roman pound, or libra, which
also gives us the cursive £ later used to identify the British pound. (The
Roman libra was about 325 grams, and the Tower pound upon which the
British currency was based was about 350 grams.) The libra was divided
into twelve unciae (ounces) – similar to the troy ounces used for precious
metals today, twelve of which make a troy pound of 373 grams. Early as
coins weighed 12 unciae, as indicated by their face value, but their
contained metal was later reduced to 10 unciae around 270 B.C., to 5 unciae
at the start of the Second Punic War in 218 B.C., and then to 1.5-1.0 unciae
around 211 B.C. Silver coinage began to be produced in Rome around 269
B.C. During the Second Punic War, its silver content was reduced to as little
as 30%.
The denarius, which became the main silver coin of Rome for more than
four centuries, was introduced in 211 B.C. A small number of gold coins
were also introduced. The denarius was slowly debased; its 211 B.C. weight
of 4.5 grams of silver fell to 3.7 grams by 170 B.C. It is possible that minting
standards of new coins were adjusted to match the contained metal of older
coins as they wore down. This became an issue in British history, as we will
see, at the end of the seventeenth century.
Although the coinage of the Roman Republic was generally of bronze
and silver, gold served as a high-level form of money, especially for the
government. At the beginning of the Second Punic War in 218 B.C., the
historian Livy (64 B.C.–17 A.D.) noted that the Roman state treasury
contained about 41,800 troy oz. of gold. The war proved a huge success for
the Treasury, producing a net gain of 105,000 ounces. Livy estimated that
another 396,000 ounces of gold were obtained by 157 B.C., mostly from
wars in Spain and Macedonia. In that year, the Treasury held 181,326
ounces of gold and 363,000 ounces of silver, clearly showing a favoring of
gold in terms of total value. Sulla removed 93,750 oz. of gold in 88 B.C. to
finance expeditions against Mithradates, and returned with 156,250 oz. of
gold booty, plus another 1.2 million ounces of silver. Caesar took roughly
31,000 oz. of gold from the Treasury to finance his campaigns in Gaul, and
another 43,000 oz. (in the form of ingots) after 49 B.C. to seize control of
Rome. All of this happened before Rome had any significant gold coinage.
Caesar struck the first large-scale issuance of gold coinage in Rome’s
history. These followed the model of the aureus, a gold coin of about 8.1
grams based on the Persian daric. After a major coinage reform around 23
B.C. by Octavian (27 B.C–14 A.D.), the Roman coinage was officially
bimetallic. The value of the eight-gram aureus was indicated as equivalent
to 25 silver denarii of 3.86 grams, implying a silver:gold ratio of 12:1. The
tradition of bronze coinage continued with the sestertius, worth one quarter
of a denarius. The coin, with a weight of 25-28 grams (about one unciae) of
brass, had a nominal value of four as.
Banking is generally thought to have been less important to the Roman
economy than in the Babylonian and Egyptian examples. Payment in
The Ancient World, 3500 B.C.–400 A.D. 29
first allowed religious tolerance, but by the end of his reign he suppressed
other religions, and tore down the Roman temples.
The Council of Nicaea forbade lending at interest (“usury”) among the
clergy. By the fifth century, this was spread to the laity. During the Middle
Ages, usury became more broadly suppressed, reaching a peak perhaps in
1311 when Pope Clement V made the ban on usury absolute and declared
all secular legislation in its favor null and void. The monetary violence of
the latter years of Rome made banking near-impossible, and the imposition
of usury laws largely prevented its return in Europe on a widespread basis.
Lending still existed in Europe, practiced mostly by Jews not subject to
Christian dictates. However, large public institutions such as banks were
not allowed.
China
taels of gold for every one thousand fiefs of a noble’s domains. 46 Gold was
then paid out by the emperor to nobles in return for military engagements
and other duties on behalf of the emperor. In 124-123 B.C., the general Wei
Ch’ing was paid 1.6 million oz. of gold as a prize for a successful attack on
Hsiung-nu in northern China. 47 Gold also served as a unit of account during
the Han era. Salaries of senior government ministers were often designated
in gold, although they could be paid in copper coins or grain.
In 10 A.D., the Han emperor Wang Mang undertook a rather
bewildering currency reform which included tortoise shell, cowries, gold
and silver (both by weight, with no coins issued; the implied gold:silver
ratio was 1:5), six different copper coins, and spade money in ten
denominations. Wang Mang’s innovations included a bronze knife money
inlaid with gold lettering, which said “one knife worth five thousand,” and
another that said “inscribed knife five hundred,” apparently introducing the
idea of high-value token currencies. The experiment was not repeated,
perhaps because it was too easy to counterfeit. Although coinage in China
continued to focus on small-denomination copper/bronze coins, Wang
Mang’s treasury held roughly five million ounces (155 metric tons) of gold
bullion, a high point for the Chinese state that was not matched until
modern times, and the largest single gold concentration in the world at the
time. 48 The industrious Wang also introduced China’s first income tax, at a
rate of 10% of profits. After only four years, the overly-complicated bronze
coinage system was simplified to two basic coins, a round coin with a
denomination of one, and a large spade (by this time a sort of vaguely
spade-shaped ingot) with a denomination of 25. This arrangement
continued without major changes until the end of the Han Dynasty in 220.
In 220-280, apparent large-denomination bronze coins appear again,
marked with values of one hundred to five thousand. Given the constant
warfare of this period between three large kingdoms, perhaps these were a
form of military finance via currency devaluation, much as Aurelian and his
successors were conducting at the same time in Rome, by marking coins
with higher and higher denominations. After the reunification of China in
280, multiple denominations disappeared, and the bronze coins (their
shape and weight still largely unchanged) returned to an implicit value of
one.
fashion based on the weight of contained metals, as we know they often did
later, and still do so today.
We also know, from written records, that effective barter was often
carried out within the framework of a monetary standard of value, such as
silver. A cow worth fifty silver shekels would trade for fifty shekels of figs.
Tax payment of twenty shekels would be paid in hides. This seems a bit
alien to us today, but it was always a common part of agrarian human life,
whether in Sumer in the fourth millennium B.C., or for an American farmer
in 1850. Did this also happen commonly before it began to be recorded in
writing? Obviously, we do not know, but there is no particular reason why
not.
What we do know is that, throughout the world, people used the
monetary metals – gold, silver and copper alloys – if they were at all
available. For a state of any meaningful size and sophistication, trade or
possibly conquest by a foreign power eventually made them available. The
commonality of use did not necessarily indicate which metals were most
preferred. Most transactions in the early Byzantine Empire would have
been carried out with low-quality bronze coins, but gold was the basis of
their system, just as gold was the basis of the monetary system in the
United States in 1960, although paper banknotes were the means of
transactions and the use of gold coins was actually outlawed for U.S.
citizens. Even after token silver coins were removed from circulation, it still
remained, for a few years longer, a gold standard system.
In a narrowly restricted locale, silver mines may be productive but gold
nearly nonexistent, or vice versa; and this could be reflected in the
monetary arrangements of that place. But to the extent that trade barriers
– caused by the practical difficulties of transport, or human-imposed trade
restrictions – could be overcome, gold and silver would tend to equalize and
thus be the same value everywhere, and of equal availability everywhere.
This was even more the case since gold and silver were generally the things
that everyone would accept in trade, and therefore commonly traded in
large quantity, the universal money from Britain to India, and ultimately to
China and beyond. Soldiers were paid regularly in gold and silver coins,
often newly-minted from bullion captured from the royal treasuries of
conquered lands. Armies thus naturally became conduits of supply of
newly-minted coinage, spreading the indigenous monetary systems of the
conquering states, before all other institutions. The greater portability of
gold made it easier to transport over long distances than silver, which
would naturally make gold a favorite means of payment for the longest
trading expeditions, and would also tend to more fully equalize the value of
gold everywhere no matter what the productivity of local mines happened
to be. This is perhaps one reason why gold was ultimately viewed as a more
universal and more stable standard of value than silver, even if most
domestic commerce happened to be conducted in silver or bronze coins due
to their usefulness in smaller-denomination transactions.
The Ancient World, 3500 B.C.–400 A.D. 35
Money – and more specifically the use of gold, silver and copper alloys
as money – predated coinage by thousands of years. This fact is easily
overlooked. Numismatists, or coinage enthusiasts, tend to assume that
money did not exist before coinage. At least, a coin is clearly a form of
money, and used for no other purpose, while the various gold, silver or
bronze objects, in the form of outright jewelry or standardized proto-
jewelry, are not so obviously a form of money, although they were used as
such. Even the standardized ingots of the ancient world, including the ox-
hide-shaped bronze ingots that traded among the eastern Mediterranean
kingdoms during the 1600-1100 B.C. period, or the Chinese sycees of gold
and silver, do not seem to be fully regarded as money today, although they
were certainly used for that purpose and no other. Representative monies
have been made of clay tablets, leather, and later wood tally sticks, or even
token coins, but people have had a tendency to ignore these often widely-
used innovations because they were not made of familiar paper.
Coinage was not, in all ways, an improvement upon money. The
Mesopotamian practice of using actual metal weights was uncorrupted for
roughly three thousand years. The Chinese shared the same affinity for
precious metals traded by weight, limiting their coinage only to the
smallest-denomination bronze coins even into the twentieth century.
Coinage, from its introduction in Lydia, began as a means by which metals
could be traded at “face value” rather than their weights. This relieved the
need for constant weighing, but introduced endless examples of currency
corruption. After many such experiments, governments found that their
coins worked best when their metals contents were unchanged, and very
close to their face value, except perhaps for a small minting premium.
If we see beyond the variety of local custom, we find that gold or silver
became the basis of money nearly everywhere. Sometimes the focus was on
gold, as in ancient Persia. Sometimes it was on silver, as in ancient Greece.
Macedonia and Lydia adopted a formal bimetallism. Historians tend to
emphasize the differences rather than the similarities, in part because it
gives them something to talk about. In practice, gold and silver were
effectively much the same thing. They tended to trade in a close ratio,
reliable and unchanging enough from year-to-year that formal bimetallism
could be adopted. The foreshortening effect of history tends to emphasize
the changes, between the 10:1 silver:gold ratio of Alexander and the 12:1
ratio of Augustus – but 325 years separated them. In practical terms, for the
purposes of real business (typically with a timeframe of less than twenty
years, and often much less than that), the silver:gold ratio – either their
floating market values or an official bimetallic arrangement – would have
been predictably stable, and in practice probably resembled the market
silver:gold ratio of 1650-1870, for which we have detailed records. Thus,
silver and gold were, for practical purposes, two versions of the same thing,
like a one-dollar bill and a ten-dollar bill. Indeed, the original U.S. one-dollar
coins were made of silver, and the ten-dollar coins were made of gold. This
36 Gold: The Final Standard
official bimetallic arrangement, which reflected real market values, was not
much different than the system of Philip II of Macedon, in the fourth century
B.C.
Thus, in practical terms, a “silver-based” system, a “gold-based” system,
or a “bimetallic” system were virtually the same thing – a gold/silver
complex which functioned much the same way no matter what the specific
local preferences for one metal or the other may have been. Recognizing
this, we find a continuity in human monetary affairs, back to the very
beginnings of history, and around the world, up to the end of gold-based
money in 1971. Despite all the uncountable episodes of currency
debauchery over millennia, and endless fascinating local particulars that
entertain numismatists, humans have used gold, silver and copper as
money, in some kind of unified system, and with copper typically in a
subordinate role. Eventually, without really changing its basic character,
this became, toward the end of the nineteenth century, a focus on gold
alone. Even this nineteenth century monometallic gold consensus was not
something new, and not particularly different than the gold-centric policy of
ancient Persia or the Byzantine Empire. It was just more widely accepted,
reflecting the greater ease of trade over long distances, the greater
interconnectedness of economic activity, and thus the desire to further
homogenize monetary affairs.
The gold/silver complex – rhetorically abbreviated as “gold” because it
did finally become a global gold-centric system – has always been the basis
of money, the ultimate measure of value. “Ultimate,” meaning the best; and
also, the final. If there were something better, we would have found it by
now. If there were a burning need to find something better, we would have
looked. No doubt the entire academic profession today would argue that
our floating paper fiat currencies are superior. B The notion of overissuing
and thus devaluing a currency (often obscured as “lowering interest rates”
or “increasing the money supply”) as a remedy for some sort of economic
difficulty must be nearly as old as devaluation itself, which is as old as
coinage itself. No demonstrable track record of success has ever been
achieved. No empire ever rose above its neighbors and expanded its realm
through the mastery of currency devaluation, or some sort of artful floating
fiat currency management, or any other form of currency manipulation.
History is all the other way: the states that maintained the highest
currency quality, whose coins contained the same quantities of gold or
silver over generations and centuries, were the most successful.
Governments that debased their coinage soon found that their borders
BIn a 2012 survey of economic experts made by the University of Chicago’s business
school, 43 percent of those surveyed “disagreed” with the gold standard, and 57
percent “strongly disagreed.” Shea, Christopher. “Survey: No Support for Gold
Standard Among Top Economists.” WSJ Blog (Jan. 23, 2012)
The Ancient World, 3500 B.C.–400 A.D. 37
were retreating under the pressure of foreign invaders, while the domestic
economy languished and civil unrest grew more strident. To meet these
challenges, they debased the currency still further, and got the same results
with greater intensity. As is the case for any official government policy that
seems to be working, a chorus of courtiers can be found to sing its praises,
and no doubt such a chorus existed then too. Monetary decline tends to
coincide with the decline of governments and dynasties. Those who claim
“this time is different” simply have no idea how much it is the same.
Chapter 3:
The Medieval Era, 400-1500
Rome left Britain to its fate in 410. By 435, Britain abandoned coinage,
and did not use it again for two hundred years. It is perhaps more accurate
to say that coinage had abandoned Britain: the Roman coins by then were
hardly coinage at all, but rather bits of junk metal, devalued continuously
for 180 years, and which could not serve any meaningful purpose as a
standardized monetary system. By then, the economic system in Britain and
throughout western Europe did not require very much monetary commerce
in any case, having adapted, over a long period, to monetary degradation
and political instability by focusing on local self-sufficiency. Manorial
serfdom formed the basis of the economy. Small states proliferated, and
trade and travel became difficult beyond the immediate locality.
Britain’s abandonment of coinage was among the more extreme
examples within post-Roman Western Europe. Coinage continued to be
used on the continent, loosely based on the Byzantine model, although
there too economic arrangements had become drastically simplified. In
600-630, the British began to adopt coinage from Merovingian France (the
tremissis, one-third of a gold solidus) and Byzantium for local use. Around
630, a new gold coin of high quality began to be produced in Britain.
Beginning around 675, this coin was repeatedly debased by the inclusion of
increasing amounts of silver, a pattern that was also happening in France at
the same time. The outcome of this was that British coinage, around the
beginning of the eighth century, had become a silver coinage, which also
had the advantage of being of a small denomination more useful for many
forms of commerce. These silver coins were also debased for a century
afterwards with the inclusion of base metals, among many of the minor
kings of disunited Britain.
In France, the Merovingian dynasty declined along with the gold
content of its coinage. In 751, the Merovingians were replaced by the
Carolingian dynasty, which, like Britain, adopted a silver basis for its
coinage. Around 755, a new coinage system was introduced by Pepin the
Short. His son Charlemagne (800-814) later united large parts of Europe
and became the first Holy Roman Emperor, in the process also unifying the
coinage of his realm. In the new system, the livre was established as a
pound of silver (inspired by the Roman libra), subdivided into 20 sous each
of 12 deniers (inspired by the Roman denarius). Only deniers were originally
minted; the rest were units of account. Besides being copied in Britain, the
The Medieval Era, 400-1500 39
system was also used in Italy and Portugal through the end of the Middle
Ages. Gold coinage continued to be used, primarily of Byzantine origin, and
was preferred by many merchants. France began producing gold coins
again in 1266, and continued to issue both gold and silver coins into the
twentieth century.
Around 765, a new level of political unification was achieved in Britain.
This led to monetary reform, with the introduction of the silver penny by
King Offa of Mercia (757-796) in the early 790s. In Offa’s imitation of the
Carolingian system, 240 silver pennies, each containing 22.5 troy grains of
silver (32 Tower grains or about 1.5 grams), made up a Tower pound of
about 350 grams. The Roman/Frankish origins today remain reflected in
the use of £ and “lb.” (from the Roman libra) for pound, and “d.” (Roman
denarius and French deniers) for penny. Offa’s penny was made of fine
silver, 99.9% pure. It was produced in high quality and large quantities, and
was often more popular in Europe than locally-produced coins. It remained
the only minted English coin for five centuries, until gold coins and other
denominations were introduced in the thirteenth century.
6000
5000
troy grains of pure silver
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
700
800
900
The English silver penny was one of the better-quality coinages of the
region, and became a model imitated elsewhere in Europe. Bolesław I
Chrobry (992-1025) was crowned the first king of Poland, and also
40 Gold: The Final Standard
traveling to Italy to her wedding, Otto died. In 1028, she was married (at
age 50) to Romanos Argyros, a scion of an aristocratic family who had made
a career as a judge and was the urban prefect (mayor) of Constantinople.
Three days after the wedding, Constantine VIII died, and Romanos became
emperor Romanos III. Unable to conceive an heir with Zoe, Romanos later
refused to share a bed with her. Zoe openly took Michael, an uneducated
courtier from a family of commoners, as one of her several lovers. After
Romanos was found dead in his bath, Zoe married Michael the next day,
thus putting Michael on the throne of the empire. Michael IV was a money-
changer by profession; some suspected him of forging false coins. He
immediately reduced the solidus’ gold content from 100% pure to 90%.
Successive emperors reduced the gold content still further, until, by the
accession of Alexius I Comnenus (1081-1118), it was 10.6% gold. Another
decade of debasement followed, and the gold content dropped toward zero.
Alexius reformed the coinage in 1092, producing a new, high-quality
gold coin, the hyperpyron (“super-refined”) of 20.5 carats, or about 85%
purity, and 4.45 grams – the same weight as the solidus, but somewhat
lower purity. The coin was also known as the nomisma (“unit”). It remained
unchanged for over a century, but was then subject to gradual debasement.
Constantinople was sacked by Christian crusaders (in alliance with
Venetian merchants) in 1204, resulting in a division of the empire into
three successor states. During the Empire of Nicaea (1204-1261), the
hyperpyron fell to 18 karats; under Michael VIII Palaiologos (1259-1282) to
15 karats; and under Andronikos II Palaiologos (1282-1328) to 12 karats,
or 50% purity. The last gold hyperpyron were made around 1350, but the
name remained as a unit of account thereafter. From 1367, the largest coin
produced was the silver stavraton of 8.5 grams, which was soon lowered to
7.4 grams. The coin remained of relatively good quality until the conquest
of Constantinople by the Ottoman Turks in 1453.
The Venetians used the Byzantine solidus and its successor, the
hyperpyron, as the basis of trade and accounting. By the mid-thirteenth
century, with the debasement of the hyperpyron, and also the weakening of
the Arab empire and its gold dinar, the Venetians found that they were
without a reliable monetary standard. Thus, in 1285, they created the ducat,
of 3.56 grams of gold at 0.995 fineness, as a copy of the florin. It became a
major international coinage and basis of trade throughout the region, and
continued to be used – without debasement – until 1797, when the Republic
of Venice fell to the armies of Napoleon Bonaparte. A burst of gold coinage
production emerged throughout Europe in the early fourteenth century,
causing gold coinage to eclipse silver not only in Italy but also France,
Germany, and Flanders. 3 Gold “ducats” were also produced in the
Netherlands, Germany, Scandinavia, and elsewhere.
In 1257, England’s Henry III introduced a “gold penny,” the first gold
coin produced in England since the eighth century. It was valued at an
implied 1:10 gold:silver ratio, well below market values at that time, and
was thus unpopular. (The market value of the contained gold was well
above the face value of twenty silver pence.) Edward III issued a new gold
coin, called the “florin,” in 1343. Again, the face value was not well
calibrated to the market values of gold and silver, so a gold “noble” coin was
issued in Britain in 1346, whose face value accurately reflected market
values, and which gained broader acceptance.
The split tally stick was a liquid credit device that took on some of the
characteristics of representative money in medieval Europe, although it did
not quite attain the status of a currency. They represented either debt or a
deposit (also a form of debt), and traded regularly among third parties.
They were near-impossible to counterfeit, and were used well after the
advent of paper currencies and more advanced banking services. Tally
sticks were accepted as legal proof in the Napoleonic Code (1804), were
used in England until 1826, and were used into the twentieth century in
some parts of rural Switzerland and Germany.
King Henry I formalized the use of the split tally stick in England
around 1100, and brought it to perhaps its most sophisticated expression as
a credit and monetary instrument, beyond its origins as an accounting
receipt. Tax assessments owed to the king were recorded in a tally stick.
These tallies were then used by the king in payment to others. The receiver
of the tally could receive payment in coinage from the original tax debtor,
trade it again, or return it to the king as a later tax payment. Soon, the king
began to pay suppliers with tallies (tallia dividenda) that did not arise from
tax debts, but were created for the purpose and essentially represented a
government debt. These tallia dividenda were redeemable at the Exchequer
for coinage. Complicated markets in tallies arose, in which their market
44 Gold: The Final Standard
After the collapse of the Han Dynasty in 220, a long period of political
disunification and instability followed in China, mirrored in various
debasements and issuances of low-quality coins. Despite the Han
government’s giant gold holdings and abundant use of gold in payment,
gold was little seen after the Han era. Some have hypothesized that the
large gold holdings of that time were hidden and often buried during the
chaos of the collapse of the Han Dynasty. Gold continued to be used among
the nobility of the Six Dynasties era (265-589), for payments among
themselves or as a store of value, but bolts of silk were a more common
medium for large transactions. This reflected the economy of the time,
based largely on peasantry tied to the land with little monetary exchange,
and a land-owning nobility. A large trading and mercantile class, which
might have a need for large monetary payments, did not exist then as it did
The Medieval Era, 400-1500 45
in the Mediterranean region. Also, during the Six Dynasties era, the
influence of Buddhism spread from Tibet and caused a surge in the creation
of gold statues in the Buddha’s image, among other religious ornaments in
gold and silver. In 490, the emperor issued edicts curbing the use of gold
and silver for religious artifacts.
The establishment of the Tang Dynasty (618-907) brought a period of
greater political unification and stability. A new, high-quality bronze coin –
regulations specified 83% copper, 15% lead and 2% tin – began to be
minted, and production continued for nearly 300 years. Gold and silver, in
the form of ingots, again rose to prominence as a high-value money, trading
by weight. Production of silver during the Tang era was low, which seems to
have limited its widespread use in commerce. Large numbers of foreign
silver coins dating from the Tang era have been found, mostly from Persia
and Arabia. The most common coins were silver drachmas from the
Sassanid Empire (224-651) of Persia.
The Tang era also saw the emergence of an early form of paper money,
the “flying cash,” in the seventh century. These enabled merchants to make
payments over long distances, by depositing coinage in one bank office and
receiving payment in another, upon the presentation of a voucher of
deposit. This system was particularly popular with tea merchants, who
wished to move revenue from the sales of tea in the north to the tea-
producing regions in the south. The vouchers did not generally circulate
among third parties, however.
An early, and short-lived, experiment in floating fiat paper money was
undertaken during the reign of Hien Tsung (a.k.a. Xianzong, 806-821), who
made payments in sheets of paper rather than bronze coins. Hien Tsung
proved to be the last great Tang emperor; after a period of increasing
instability, the dynasty ended in rebellion in 907, followed by a period of
turmoil known as the “Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms Period.” Another
experimental government issue took place in 910, and then more
commonly after 960 during the wars in which the Song Dynasty (960-1279)
reunified China. By 1020, the notes were collapsing in a spiral of
overissuance. 5
A private paper currency was introduced in the Sichuan region under
the Song Dynasty at the beginning of the eleventh century. Coins were
deposited in banks, deposit receipts were received in turn, and these
receipts circulated widely among third parties. The government recognized
sixteen merchants and granted them a monopoly on the issuance of deposit
promissory notes. The merchants did not always honor their depository
receipts with prompt payment in coinage, however, which resulted in
protests and many legal cases. In 1032, the government established a
monopoly on paper monies. The reserve coverage of these notes, in the
form of coinage, was twenty-nine percent. 6 At first, the note issue was
maintained at a fixed level. However, in 1072, the issue was doubled, and
this practice was repeated in later years such that, by 1107, the note issue
46 Gold: The Final Standard
had increased by 21 times its original amount and the notes’ market value
declined substantially. By the end of the Northern Song Dynasty (960-
1127), issuance had roughly tripled again. In 1127, the Song lost control of
the northern part of China to the Jin Dynasty, ruled by the Jurchen peoples
of Manchuria.
The Song retreated to the south, marking the beginning of the Southern
Song Dynasty (1127-1279). In 1128, a currency reform took place and new
issue of paper money was undertaken by the Song government in the
Sichuan region. The system began with a limitation on issuance, but by the
early thirteenth century, issuance had expanded by about twenty-six times,
again with a substantial decline in the notes’ market value. 7
In the mid-twelfth century, private money-issuers began to issue paper
monies in the Hangzhou area. In 1160, the government monopolized money
issuance in Hangzhou, with a limitation on total circulation. Beginning
around 1176, governments again relied on paper money issuance as a
means of military finance. By 1195, the total circulation had expanded by
three times. By 1232, the circulation had expanded to thirty-three times its
original amount. The market value of the notes was stable until about 1208,
but then began to decline rapidly. By the end of the Song Dynasty in 1279,
the notes had been devalued to worthlessness.
The Song’s conquerors in the north, the Jin Dynasty (1115-1234),
issued their own paper currencies in the Song model beginning in 1153,
immediately after moving their capital to Beijing. The currency was well
maintained until the end of the twelfth century, when it began to depreciate
in value. The government undertook a series of reforms in 1206-1207,
including a reduction in circulation of large-denomination notes. Small-
denomination notes were made convertible to coin, but only in very small
amounts. However, in 1210, to pay military expenses just before a major
defeat by the Mongols, eighty-four cartloads of bills were distributed among
Jin troops. The bills’ value declined to worthlessness, and in 1214, a new
issue of notes was undertaken by the Jin government. Circulation of copper
coins was prohibited. Price controls were attempted, but failed after only
two months. In 1216, the new notes’ market value had depreciated to less
than a hundredth of their issue value only two years earlier. Yet another
new note was issued in 1217, with a value of one thousand of the notes
issued in 1214. By 1221, these notes’ value had depreciated by a factor of
200:1. Another new note was issued in 1222, with each worth 400 of the
notes issued in 1217. By this time, silver bullion had become the
predominant currency. The Jin government attempted to limit transactions
in silver, but this was soon abandoned as merchants refused to open their
shops. 8 The Jin Dynasty ended in 1234, after twenty-three years of war with
the Mongols at first led by Genghis Khan, in which many Jin officials and
military units defected to the Mongol side.
Around 1227, a Mongol military commander issued a paper currency
based on silk in the Shantung region, a major silk-producing district. Prior
The Medieval Era, 400-1500 47
to 1260, a number of local Mongol authorities issued paper notes for their
immediate jurisdiction, mostly based on silver. In 1236 and 1253, the
central government made some small issuances of silver-based paper
money based on the Jin model. With the ascension of Kublai Khan, grandson
of Genghis Khan, to the throne of Great Khan in 1260, a new note was
issued that would eventually unify the currency system of the empire. The
reserve consisted of gold and silver. Kublai Khan declared the beginning of
the Yuan Dynasty in China in 1271. With the defeat of the Southern Song in
1279, all of China was again unified, this time under Mongol rule. Chinese
paper money reached its zenith during the Yuan Dynasty, modeled after the
Jin and Song examples. By 1280, the note had become the universal paper
currency not only of China but of the Mongol Empire, which, in the single
year of 1274, conducted invasions of both Bulgaria and Japan. The Empire
reached the peak of its extent around 1280-1300, with invasions of Egypt
and Japan in 1281, Vietnam in 1284, Poland and Burma in 1287, Java
(Indonesia) in 1293, and Egypt again in 1299. Kublai Khan died in 1294.
Mongol records list 20,166 public schools established during his reign.
Already by 1262, the Mongol government forbade the use of gold and
silver as a medium of exchange, and required the use of paper currency.
Nevertheless, discipline over the currency’s issuance remained tight until
the late 1270s, when issuance stepped up considerably. Writing in 1286,
the historian Liu Xian recalled:
A Ahmad Fanākatī, a Persian Muslim who was finance minister of the Yuan
government beginning in 1262. After early success in tax administration, he later
became known for corruption, and was assassinated in 1282. After hearing
testimonies of Ahmad’s corruption, Kublai Khan ordered his body to be taken from
its tomb and eaten by dogs, and then chariot wheels used to smash the bones to
pieces.
48 Gold: The Final Standard
amounts of silver and copper, which China would eventually acquire from
Japan and the New World.
Despite extensive use of paper currency in China, banking and credit
never attained the state of development that it did in Mesopotamia, Greece
or Rome. Pawnshops date from the Six Dynasties period (222-589), and
constituted the primary form of credit institution in China until the
nineteenth century. Quantities were small, rates were high, and the primary
purpose was for small-scale individual use. Informal mutual financing
associations also provided funds for weddings, funerals, or productive
purposes. Direct lending in China existed from ancient times, before the
fourth century B.C. The Han government (206 B.C.-220 A.D.) set a limit on
interest rates around 100 per cent per year. Wang Mang (9-23 A.D.)
introduced government loans to needy people at a rate of 3 per cent per
month, apparently charitable by the standards of the time. By the early
Tang era (618-907), the ceiling rate was 6 per cent per month for private
loans and 7 per cent per month for loans from the government. During the
Yuan, Ming and Qing eras (1271-1912), the official maximum rate was three
per cent per month. 13
The prophet Muhammad was born around 570 A.D. in the Arabian city
of Mecca. Islamic tradition holds that in 610, the angel Gabriel appeared to
him and began to recite verses that were later included in the Quran.
Muhammad died in 632, soon after politically unifying Arabia. Immediately
after his death, a small army of Muslims burst forth from Arabia and, within
a couple decades, conquered the eastern Byzantine empire including Egypt
and Syria, and the Sassanid dynasty in Persia and Mesopotamia. By 661, the
Rashidun Caliphs controlled an area stretching from modern Tunisia to the
banks of the southern Indus, in Pakistan. By 700 the Umayyad Caliphate had
expanded across North Africa, and further east to control most of the Indus
valley. In 711, the Umayyad armies crossed the Strait of Gibraltar and
invaded the Iberian peninsula. Muslim caliphates eventually controlled
about 90% of Iberia’s land area at their peak around 1000, declining
afterwards until finally driven from Spain in 1492.
At first, the existing Byzantine and Persian gold coinage was used in the
new Arab empire. In 696-697, the gold dinar was created, at 4.25 grams and
0.970 fineness. The name derives from the Byzantine denarius auri, and it
was basically a copy of the solidus, with similar weight and fineness. A
silver dirham coin of 2.8-2.9 grams was added two years later, its name
derived from the Greek drachma. From their position the Arab caliphates
commanded the gold mines of Africa, and received tribute from states along
their borders. In 1046, Byzantine emperor Constantine IX sent 216,000
solidus and 300,000 dinars (2,250 kg total) of gold to Baghdad to mark the
signing of a peace treaty. The Tulunids and Fatimids of Egypt sent annual
50 Gold: The Final Standard
India
Bali (in eastern Indonesia) was influenced by the Hindu culture of Java
(western Indonesia). The earliest writing in Bali dates from 882 A.D., in
Sanskrit. Already by this time, gold was the preferred standard of payment
in Bali. Silver coins and stamped gold ingots were produced in Java from the
late eighth century, and their use spread to Bali by the late ninth century. 18
Silver and gold also served as the unit of account.
Before the introduction of coinage in Japan, arrowheads, rice, and gold
powder traded as money. In 708 A.D., the Empress Gemmei ordered the
creation of the first coinage system, based on the Chinese model. At first it
consisted of high quality copper and silver coins, in the familiar Chinese
style with a square hole, but they were quickly debased and devalued. In
760, a currency reform was undertaken in which new copper, silver and
gold coins were introduced.
By the middle of the ninth century, these coins too had been heavily
debased and devalued, with their market value compared to rice falling to
1/150th of their original issue value. The last issue of coinage took place in
958, of very low quality coins. By the end of the tenth century, coinage had
been abandoned, and the basis of monetary commerce returned to rice and
precious metals, trading by weight.
In the twelfth century, Chinese coins began to be imported for use as
money. This was enabled by the Chinese use of paper money, extending
even to intermittent bans on the use of coinage, which reduced the
domestic demand for coinage and thus freed it for use in export trade.
Chinese coinage continued to be used in Japan up to the early seventeenth
century, supplemented with some issuance of locally-produced coinage
generally of mediocre quality, reflecting the centuries of warring minor
states before the political reunification of Japan in 1600.
lengths of cotton cloth, turkey quills filled with gold dust, and standardized
gold figurines were used in payment.
Gold and silver had long been used in the Andean realm. Gold artifacts
in the Andean region have been dated to 2155-1936 B.C. The Chavin
culture, from 800-200 B.C., began a long history of gold artifacts of
exemplary craftsmanship. Writing never developed in the Andean region
before the conquest by the Spanish, so we cannot tell the extent to which
these objects had a monetary function, whether gold and silver in bullion
form was used as money, or whether gold, silver or some other object may
have been used as a unit of account in transactions. However, some of the
states that were eventually absorbed into the Inca Empire in the fifteenth
century did have what amounted to simple monetary systems. One common
currency was a standardized “axe-head” money made of copper, a simple
flat ingot with a vaguely axe-like shape, found among coastal cultures from
Peru to western Mexico that were engaged in maritime trade.
The Inca Dynasty of the Andes established their capital at Cuzco, Peru
in 1438. It was, at first, a small city-state. From there it conquered the
various states of the Andes, assembling them into an amalgamated empire
with multiple languages, peoples and cultures that was largely complete by
the death of its greatest expansionist, Huayna Capac, in 1527. At its peak,
the Inca empire was likely the largest in the world at that time. Spanish
conquistadores first arrived in Inca territory briefly in 1526, and returned
in 1532. Outbreaks of smallpox and other European diseases had already
decimated the Inca Empire’s population, and its political system, before any
battles with the Spanish soldiers themselves. Some have estimated that the
population had already fallen by 60% or more before Spanish contact,
accompanied by breakdowns in all existing social order and government
authority. 20 Civil war ravaged the empire from 1529 to 1532. The Inca
Empire fell to the Spanish in 1533, not even a hundred years after its
founding.
Like the Egypt under the Pharaohs, the empire of the Inca had a high
degree of central planning, and virtually no market-based exchange. “Axe-
head” currencies had a role in trade in some areas, but gold, silver and
copper were not used in the monetary fashion that had been common
throughout Europe and Asia for centuries, or as they were used in the
Mesoamerican regions to the north. However, ritualized exchange,
bestowing favors upon elites and lower-level managers, took on a money-
like quality. In addition to adornments of gold and silver, cloth became a
standardized commodity of quasi-payment, as had also taken place in Asia.
Gold and silver were also popular with the Chimor lords and their
traders, obtained by trading prestige goods with the highland regions (the
Incas). 21 The Chimor lords aimed to monopolize the production and
circulation of gold and silver, used to create artisanal works that in turn
served as trade goods and prestige items among elites. “[For the elites,] the
rewards included superb ceramics, lavish libation vessels, woodwork,
54 Gold: The Final Standard
lapidary arts, and splendid metalwork. Thus fine arts critical to wealth
finance [compensating elite service to the Inca state] were the end returns
of an elite investment strategy that used mit’a labor to gain agricultural
lands,” wrote historian Michael Mosley. The Chimor state presented the last
major challenge to Inca power, and was defeated with great struggle.
Mosley described: “[W]hen Tahuantinsuyu [the Inca Empire] subjugated
Chimor, tens of thousands of craftsmen at Chan Chan [the Chimor capital]
were moved to the environs of Cuzco to serve the new rulers. To the degree
that fine arts constituted the coin of the realm, Chan Chan was thus stripped
of the mint it needed to finance revolt.” 22
The Inca emperors – like the Egyptian pharaohs – directed the mining
of enormous amounts of gold and silver, devoting huge resources of labor to
the task. This gold and silver was concentrated at Cuzco, the capital city.
Cieza de León, in his Chronicles of Peru (1553), described the House of the
Sun at Cuzco as being more than 400 paces in circumference. “Round the
wall, halfway up, there was a band of gold, two palms wide and four dedos
[fingers] in thickness. The doorways and doors were covered with plates of
the same metal ... within were four houses ... with walls ... covered with
plates of gold, within and without. In one of these houses, which was the
richest, there was a figure of the sun, very large and made of gold, very
ingeniously worked.” 23
It is hard to believe that the gigantic amount of labor required to mine
the gold contained in a band of the size described (approximately three
inches by seven inches by 1200 feet) would be undertaken simply as a sort
of adornment – or that, once acquiring this colossal quantity of bullion at
enormous expense of labor and force of arms, the Inca emperors, drawing
on over three thousand years of sophisticated jewelry design in the Andean
region, could think of no better adornment than to make it into what
amounted to a very large ingot. Rather, the gold was, in effect, something
like money – not coinage for everyday use, but a standardized trading unit
potentially used between kings, lords and generals, to buy allegiances with
neighboring states, trade with foreigners, grant rewards for service, or pay
tribute; as a fundamental tool of statecraft. In a command economy, it is not
necessary to motivate people by payment of money – for example, by
paying soldiers in coinage. One simply issues commands. However, those
with some free agency, such as generals and leaders of foreign states,
cannot be motivated by simple command. They have to be compensated
somehow. This is how the Egyptian pharaohs used gold, even as they
banned commoners from owning any. So too did the Chinese emperors of
the Han era who, in 7 A.D., when their royal treasuries held perhaps the
largest accumulation of gold in the world of the time, outlawed the
ownership of gold by commoners.
The history of the expansion of the Inca Empire, as it has been
reconstructed, indicates many instances where gold, silver and other
precious items, were taken as booty from conquered states. 24 Diplomacy
The Medieval Era, 400-1500 55
was the first avenue of state expansion, with allegiance purchased with
gifts. 25 The fifth Inca ruler Topa Inca Yupanqui reportedly secured vows of
allegiance from the Chincha state with gifts of fine cloth and gold beads. 26
Another Inca military expedition to today’s Bolivia resulted in the payment
of great quantities of gold in tribute from the citizens of Chuquiabo (La
Paz). 27 After a successful expedition, rewards were given to officers and
also common soldiers who had served with exceptional valor, consisting of
elaborate textiles and decorative plates of gold and silver worn as battle
decorations. Nobles received larger distributions of cloth, gold, silver, and
other precious items. 28 These patterns are much the same as one might find
in Egyptian or Roman history.
The United States also outlawed gold ownership in 1933, even as the
U.S. Federal government itself became the world’s largest gold owner, at
one point during the 1940s holding over 40% of all the estimated
aboveground gold in the world. Although gold coins no longer circulated in
the United States, gold was still used as a unit of account and a high-level
form of payment between governments in the 1950s and 1960s, mostly
between central banks. The government of the Soviet Union, whose
command economy was similar to that of the Incas or Egyptians, outlawed
the ownership of gold among citizens. Nevertheless, the Soviet government
devoted large amounts of manpower and resources to gold mining.
Between the end of World War II and the end of the Soviet era in 1991, the
Soviet Union was the world’s second largest gold producer. The Western
industrialized countries did not have much interest in Soviet manufactured
goods, so sales of gold (and energy commodities) were a major avenue by
which the Soviet government obtained Western currencies, which were
then used to buy goods from the West. During the 1980s, the Soviet Union
became a major importer of Western foodstuffs and capital goods. Aid in
the form of Western currencies was also used to cement the alliance of
other communist states such as Cuba, Mongolia and Vietnam.
The Inca gold and silver was ultimately used as payment of tribute
between kings, generals, and foreign powers; specifically, to pay ransom to
the Spanish conquistadores for the return of the captured Inca emperor
Atahualpa. How convenient that the lords and generals of the Andean
realm, and those of Spain, paid and accepted tribute in the same medium of
exchange.
Chapter 4:
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850
As the Christian Byzantine Empire weakened, and finally fell to the
Ottoman Turks in 1453, European overland trade with Asia was blocked by
unfriendly Muslim states. Spanish and Portuguese explorers, taking
advantage of their position on the Atlantic, began to search for new routes
to Asia by sea. Exploration of the African coast by Portuguese navigators,
enabled by improved ships, began in 1418. (Around the same time, in 1405-
1421, far larger Chinese fleets explored the eastern shores of Africa.) In
1488, the Indian Ocean was reached for the first time by Portuguese sailors
rounding the southern tip of Africa. Christopher Columbus 1 attempted to
sail west to Asia in 1492, and accidentally discovered the Americas. In 1511,
Portuguese sailors reached the “spice islands” of Molucca (Indonesia), and
reached China a year later. The Isthmus of Panama was first crossed in
1513. A circumnavigation of the world was accomplished in 1522. The
Aztec Empire of Mexico was conquered by Spanish adventurers in 1521.
The Inca Empire fell in 1533. A Portuguese expedition had already touched
the edge of the Inca Empire from the eastern side in 1524-25, after
traveling overland through southern Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia.
Portuguese sailors accidentally reached Japan in 1543, and trade soon
began. In 1557, the Chinese government allowed a Portuguese trading
colony at Macau. The capital of the Spanish East Indies was established at
Manila, Philippines, in 1571. In 1580, after a crisis of succession, Portugal
was unified with Spain, also welding together a globe-spanning empire of
maritime trade and conquest.
Similar coins from different valleys, with different names all bearing the “-
thaler” suffix, soon became popular. These local efforts were standardized
when, in 1566, the Reichsthaler set the unit of account for the Holy Roman
Empire at 401 grains of contained silver. This particular coin was popular,
and was soon imitated in Burgundy and France. The Netherlands, in revolt
against Spain, began minting its own version of the thaler, the silver “daler,”
beginning in 1575; it was specifically to facilitate export trade. Spreading
from the Dutch colonies along the Hudson River including Albany and New
Amsterdam (later New York; both founded 1614), it began to be used in the
English colonies in North America as well. Swedes, Danes and Norwegians
later followed with their own identical “daler” coins. Much of Europe was
thus on a “thaler standard,” using a number of “thaler” coins from different
producers but all of similar size and weight, alongside a variety of gold
coins originally derived from the Byzantine hyperpyron and its later Italian
replacements.
After the initial looting of Inca and Aztec gold and silver, around 1520-
1560, the Spanish turned to mining in the Americas. Silver mines in the
Zacatecas region in Mexico and the awesome Potosí in Bolivia began
operations, causing the silver output of the Spanish colonies to triple during
the 1560s. Between 1500 and 1600, world silver production is estimated to
have increased by nine times, while gold production increased by only
50%. 2 This flood of new silver caused the gold:silver ratio in Europe to
decline from around 1:10.7 in 1500 to 1:12 by the 1570s. In 1700, the
gold:silver ratio was 1:16 in Spain, 1:14.7 in London, 1:14.2 in India, and 1:9
in China. In 1800, the gold:silver ratio was 1:16 in London.
In 1573, the first Spanish galleon, carrying Spanish silver, departed
from Acapulco, on the Pacific side of Mexico, and landed at Manila in the
Philippines, to trade with the merchants of Ming China. The Chinese had
been using silver bullion and copper coins exclusively, after abandoning
paper money in the 1430s. At first, the Chinese obtained this silver from
mines in Japan, which enjoyed an enormous silver mining boom beginning
around 1530. This commerce between Japan and China was facilitated in
part by Portuguese stationed at Macau, and established the principle of
obtaining silver via maritime trade. More silver was obtained from Europe
via the overland trade route, but this was difficult. By this point, the gold
and silver of Europe was coming from Spain’s American conquests. The
trade link over the Pacific brought gold and silver directly from Spain’s
mines in the Americas to China. Chinese demand for Spanish silver was
immense; as was Spanish demand for Chinese luxury items, especially silks.
It has been estimated that between 30 percent and 50 percent of all the
mining output of Spain in the Americas went directly to China over the
Pacific. 3 More ended up in China after traveling through Europe and then
east, via India or the Silk Road. 4
Spain enacted a monetary reform in 1497 that led to the first eight-real
coin, similar in size to thaler coins that came soon after. In 1536, the first
58 Gold: The Final Standard
eight-real coins, also known as pesos (“weight”), were minted in the New
World at Mexico City. These “pieces of eight” were soon the target of
Caribbean pirates preying on the Spanish treasure galleons. The gold
doubloon began to be minted in 1537. Its value of two escudos was also
equivalent to two ducats. In 1598, Spain adopted the continental thaler
standard for the eight-real coin. Since Spanish mines in the Americas were
the world’s primary producers of silver, most of the silver coins of the time
were minted by Spain. These coins were eventually used throughout the
American colonies, including in the English, Dutch and French colonies of
North America, and also throughout Asia via the trade with China. Produced
for export trade, they were among the most reliable and best quality coins
of the sixteenth through the nineteenth centuries, even as domestic
coinages used within Spain itself (vellon coins diluted with copper) began to
undergo debasements beginning in 1599.
Chinese at first treated the Spanish coins as something like ingots, to be
weighed, assayed, possibly melted and recast, and exchanged based on their
actual silver content – just as the Chinese had been doing with their own
domestic silver since the collapse of paper money in the 1430s. Before long,
they confirmed that the coins were reliably standardized. The Spanish
silver dollar thus became the regular silver coinage of China,
complementing the locally-produced copper coinage and also silver bullion
in the form of the sycee ingot, and remained so into the twentieth century. It
wasn’t until 1890 that a Chinese government first produced a silver coin; it
was an imitation of the Spanish silver dollar.
During the Qing dynasty (1644-1912) the Spanish silver dollar was
identified with the Chinese character 圓 (yuan, “round object”) alongside
the domestic copper coinage which had long been indicated with the
character 文 (wen). The 文 (wen) character was also used for Chinese-
inspired copper coinage in Japan (mon), Korea (mun) and Vietnam (van). As
the Spanish silver dollar became commonly used throughout East Asia
following the Chinese example, so too did the Chinese character
representing it. The traditional 圓 (yuan) character was later simplified to
元 in China. In Japan, the same character was simplified to 円 and
pronounced yen. In Korean, the original Chinese character was retained,
and pronounced won. The Spanish silver dollar also became the eventual
basis of the Philippine peso, the Mexican peso and other peso coins used
throughout Central and South America, the Singapore and Hong Kong
dollars, and the U.S. dollar.
In the Coinage Act of 1792, the U.S. silver dollar coin was defined with a
weight of 371.25 grains of pure contained silver, the average weight of
worn Spanish silver dollars then in circulation in the American colonies.
(The weight of a newly-minted Spanish silver dollar was about 377 grains
at that time.) Spanish silver dollars/Mexican pesos remained legal tender in
the U.S. until 1857. The U.S. dollar of 1792 was thus 92.6% of the weight of
the Reichsthaler of 1566, over two centuries earlier – an excellent record of
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 59
reliability for this particular coinage standard. The U.S. dollar’s value (later
translated into its gold equivalent) remained stable until its first permanent
devaluation in 1933.
The Netherlands
The rise of the Netherlands, the premier empire of trade and finance of
the seventeenth century, began with revolt against its Spanish rulers in
1568. The northern Netherlands declared independence in 1581. Inspired
by John Calvin (1509-1564), by the 1560s Calvinist Protestants already
formed a significant minority in the Netherlands. Calvinism also allowed
lending at interest, breaking from Catholic tradition on that topic. The
independent Dutch provinces, centered on Amsterdam, were thus
Protestant, which had been forbidden under Spanish rule. The Dutch also
sought escape from the oppressive taxes and currency debasements of the
troubled Spanish Empire, whose overseas successes were matched with
domestic difficulties. The new state drew the attention of Jews as a potential
new refuge, particularly the Jews of Spain and Portugal who had been
driven out by the Spanish Inquisition in 1492, or went underground as
apparent converted Christians. The Dutch revolution was led by William I,
of the House of Orange. Although he was assassinated in 1584, the House of
Orange remained a protector and supporter of Jewish migration to
Amsterdam. Many of the first wave of Spanish and Portuguese Jews,
arriving in Amsterdam beginning around 1593, had considerable
experience in trade throughout the Spanish Empire. Jews had already been
the primary lenders and, when permitted, bankers in Europe since the
imposition of Christian usury laws in the fourth century. In 1688, William
III of Orange became King of England.
At first, a menagerie of foreign coins was used in the newly
independent Dutch provinces, alongside domestically-minted coins. One
sixteenth-century record listed 48 different kinds of gold coins in common
circulation in Europe. Early Dutch gold coins, first minted in 1586, were
called ducats, and imitated the ducat standard of Spain during the rule of
Ferdinand and Isabella. Other coins imitated the ducat standard of Hungary.
Around 1680, the Dutch guilder was introduced as a new standard for gold
and silver coinage.
The Dutch Empire gradually took over much of the trade of the
declining Spanish Empire. The Dutch East India Company was founded in
1602, to trade throughout Asia. It has been considered the first
multinational corporation, and the first to issue stock; trading in the stock
formed the first modern stock exchange. Between 1602 and 1796, the
Dutch East India Company alone accounted for roughly half of all European
trade with Asia. By 1669, the Company was the richest private company in
the world, with a fleet of 150 merchant ships, 40 warships, 50,000
employees, and a private army of 10,000 soldiers. The Dutch West India
60 Gold: The Final Standard
Company was founded in 1621 to trade across the Atlantic, between Africa
and the Americas, with ports stretching from Brazil to the Dutch settlement
at New Amsterdam, now New York. New financial innovations flourished,
including an insurance industry, foreign exchange trading, and
sophisticated commodity markets that included futures and option
contracts. The stock exchange eventually embraced buying of stock on
margin, and nascent stock-index investing. An active market in public debt
emerged; during the second half of the seventeenth century, yields on long-
term government bonds were reliably in the 3.0%-4.0% range. Holland also
enjoyed a dominant role in trade within Europe. Domestic industries
including shipbuilding and textiles expanded dramatically. Holland became
the wealthiest country in the world, and ran the world’s biggest empire.
Although the beginning of the Industrial Revolution was still a century
away, Holland of the seventeenth century is considered by some to be the
first modern capitalist economy.
The Bank of Amsterdam was founded in 1609 as a private entity. It was
initially conceived as a “100% reserve” deposit bank, which did not engage
in any lending, and which held coins and bullion equivalent to all deposit
liabilities. Although it did not issue banknotes on a large scale, the Bank is
considered a precursor to, or possibly the first example of, the modern
central bank.
The Bank received foreign and local coins at their actual weight and
fineness, or gold and silver bullion, and credited the depositor according to
mint standards. Depositors could then make payments to each other via
deposit transfers, common especially for larger transactions. Thus, Bank
deposits were inherently standardized, and also free from wear, clipping or
counterfeiting; fire, robbery or other accidents; and, in payment, did not
have to be weighed, counted or transported. Deposit receipts were not
payable on demand, but had a six-month maturity. They were freely traded
but did not attain the nature of a paper currency. They were instead more
like short-term bills, for which a ready market was available. As it was not
conceived at first as a lending bank, the Bank sustained itself by charging
various fees for deposit and transfer.
In actual fact, the Bank’s “100% reserve” era was very short. By the end
of its first decade of existence, the Bank had begun to make loans to the
government-sponsored Dutch East India Company. The Bank also made
loans to the City of Amsterdam, the Amsterdam Lending Bank, and certain
individuals such as mint-masters. At the end of its second decade, the Bank
had outstanding loans of 2.1 million guilders, and bullion reserves of 1.6
million guilders. 5 This was done in secret; officially, the Bank operated as
originally conceived, as a 100% reserve bank of deposit. However, this
initial experimentation with lending was soon reversed. After 1640, the
Bank’s loans outstanding, though they remained as part of its balance sheet
throughout its history, became minor. Aggressive lending did not return
until the Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784), as the government pressured the
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 61
bank to lend out most of its bullion holdings to the Dutch East India
Company, then struggling against British blockade. This was not made
public until 1790, when the Bank declared itself insolvent. However, the
currency was never devalued, nor the coinage debased. The Bank was taken
over by the City of Amsterdam in 1791, and enjoyed a brief resurgence of
popularity as a refuge during the French Revolution. The Netherlands were
invaded by France in 1795, and became largely a puppet state until the
French retreated in 1813. An independent Kingdom of the Netherlands was
established in 1815. The Bank of the Netherlands was established in 1814,
superseding the Bank of Amsterdam, which closed in 1819.
Another representative of the “100% reserve” model was the Bank of
Hamburg, founded in 1619. Unlike the Bank of Amsterdam, the Bank of
Hamburg apparently did keep coinage and bullion in reserve against all
claims. When Napoleon took possession of the bank in 1813, he found
bullion and coinage slightly in excess of all liabilities. 6 The Bank of Hamburg
also institutionalized the use of the mark, an accounting unit of weight used
by the bank to standardize the values of the multitudes of coinage that then
passed through Europe. The mark as a unit of weight dates at least as far
back as the mid-ninth century. One-mark coins were struck in the sixteenth
century, although thalers and gulden (Dutch/German versions of the
florin/ducat gold coins of Italy) remained predominant. The modern mark
did not appear until after the reunification of Germany in 1871.
57% fineness. In 1706, a new coin returned to the original fineness, but at a
reduced size, lowering its gold content still further. In 1736, the coin was
again debased, as part of an attempt by emperor Tokugawa Yoshimune to
stimulate the economy and raise prices. The gold coinage was slightly
debased again in 1818 and 1832.
After 1772, silver coins were given a denomination relative to the gold
coins, and had significantly less silver than their face value. In effect, they
became token coins, and the coinage moved to a gold monometallic
standard, much as was the case in Britain after 1816. Token coins, by their
nature, are managed using techniques similar to those of paper banknotes.
Japan’s use of banknotes during that time probably aided the innovation of
token coinage, just as was the case in Britain.
After various abuses, the Tokugawa government banned the use of
paper currencies in 1707. In 1730, they were allowed again, with a time
limit for redemption of typically 15 or 25 years. By one count, there were
1,694 paper currencies in circulation in Japan in the 1850s. The reopening
of trade with the West in 1854 effectively undermined the existing currency
system, as the gold:silver ratio was at that time 1:5 in Japan and 1:16 in the
United States, producing enormous arbitrage opportunities. Foreign silver
flushed into Japan, and gold flushed out. For a time beginning in 1859,
Mexican silver dollars were declared official currency, as they already were
in China. Between 1859 and 1869, local governments issued various types
of their own currency, leading to many episodes of rampant devaluation
that reflected Japan’s own political unrest leading to the overthrow of the
medieval Tokugawa regime in the Meiji Restoration of 1868.
In 1871, the modern Meiji government introduced a new, uniform
currency, the yen, originally worth 24.26 grams of pure silver, in line with
the Spanish, Mexican and U.S. silver dollar coins then in use.
One solution to this is to lower the coinage standard, with a new issue
of coins containing the average contained metal as the older, worn coins.
This means a debasement from the previous coinage standard, with the
effect that, over time, official mint policy follows the natural debasement of
coin wear. This was the case for the U.S. dollar, initially based on the
average weights of worn Spanish dollars actually in circulation in the
Colonies, rather than the weights of newly-minted Spanish dollars. Another
solution is the constant reminting of coins, such as those received in tax
payments, before coin wear reaches the point at which people would be
motivated to treat worn coins and newly-minted coins differently. Besides
the cost of reminting itself, the government takes 100 worn coins in tax
payment and produces perhaps 90 new coins from them, in effect paying
the price of ten coins. The Byzantine government used this method during
the long era of unchanging value for the solidus, but governments can easily
lose the discipline to continue such a policy.
In the 1690s, British silver coinage in common circulation (the most-
worn, lightest-weight coins) were dramatically lighter than the standard for
newly-minted coins. The value of the bullion contained in new coins was
thus substantially higher than worn coins with the same face value.
Consequently, although roughly £3 million of silver coins were minted after
the introduction of high-quality, machine-pressed, milled-edge coins in
1663 (replacing the old hand-hammered coins), virtually none of these
remained in Britain, but were exported mainly to France. Gold coins,
however, tended to have little wear and were already preferred by bankers
as the standard for banknotes. A lively debate ensued on whether to lower
the official contained silver standard of new coinage to match the worn
existing coinage (in effect, a substantial official debasement). The proposal
of William Lowndes, Secretary of the Treasury, was to lower the standard
by twenty percent. The alternative was to keep the existing coinage
standard. Both sides had merit. In the end, the argument was won by the
philosopher John Locke, who insisted that the official coinage standard of
the British pound should not be reduced, but rather the coinage improved
to the official standard. This decision had a significance beyond the practical
matter at hand: it established the principle of long-term currency stability
over the exigencies of current conditions, and formed a basis of British
monetary thinking thereafter. In the first six months of the recoinage effort,
the Exchequer collected silver coins with a face value of £4.7 million. They
were found to have a total weight of £2.5 million in new coins.
The Mercantilist obsession with the “balance of trade” and a “shortage
of money” was perhaps related to the worn nature of English coins, as early
as 1600. Higher-quality coins were exported, and the mints fell silent.
Debates of the early seventeenth century focused on the below-par value of
British coinage on foreign exchange markets. In parliamentary proceedings
in 1621, King James I made an opening speech which said:
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 65
For the scarcite of coine, it is strange that my Mint for silver hath
not gone this nyne or ten years. Yes, so long it hath stood out of use
that I and my council cannot think to see silver coined there againe in
our time. How this may be redressed it concerneth you to consider
now in Parliament and let your King have your best advice about it. 7
bullion form) are often used in payment, especially for larger transactions
where silver’s lower value presents problems of transport and also the
sheer number of coins that must be minted. However, the value of these
gold coins, or bullion, vary on a daily basis when their market prices are
expressed in silver. The deviation was not particularly large, as it is today –
historical market prices show that deviation in gold:silver ratios remained
within a few percentage points for decades. Nevertheless, it introduced a
constant element of variability, thus undermining all of the advantages that
come from standardization and uniformity.
Thus, in an effort to standardize the entire monetary system, a formal
bimetallic system is imposed, where gold and silver are expected to trade at
an official, fixed ratio. Over time, this system comes into conflict due to the
natural variation in market gold:silver values. In a more primitive economy,
where prices are imprecise, where debt agreements and other long-term
contracts more scarce, and where foreign trade is difficult or restricted,
small differences (on the order of 3%, the difference between a gold:silver
ratio of 1:15.5 and 1:16) between the official values and market values of
gold and silver can perhaps be ignored. However, with increasing financial
sophistication, easier communication, and greater ease of domestic
transport and foreign trade, as was taking place in the seventeenth,
eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, these small anomalies could be more
easily identified and exploited. People would thus rush to trade exclusively
in either gold or silver, according to which had a small momentary
advantage (cheaper to deliver) within the bimetallic framework. Coinage
and bullion could even be exported and leave the country, according to
some small variance in official bimetallic bullion values and values on
foreign markets. This could lead to the disappearance of small-
denomination silver coinage, and other similar outcomes, even when there
was no practical shortage of silver bullion or lack of minting capacity. By the
late eighteenth century, private producers were introducing token coins in
small denominations, to relieve the shortage of silver coinage in Britain. 9
The recoinage of 1696-1700, and then the introduction of informal
token coinage in the late eighteenth century, finally resolved the “shortage
of money” issues in Britain. This time period also coincided with the rise of
the Classical economic conception over the Mercantilist, including a focus
on free trade.
Isaac Newton’s new bimetallic ratio pushed Britain – originally under
silver-centric bimetallism via Roman influence, then gold-centric in the
Byzantine model, then again silver-centric since the eighth century – back
toward a gold basis, not only in terms of coinage but perhaps more
importantly, as a unit of account and basis for paper banknotes. In practice,
states throughout the world had drifted to-and-fro within the context of the
gold/silver complex, from one pole (the silver-centric arrangement of China
at that time) to the other (the gold/copper system of Byzantium or the Han
Dynasty), and all the various intermediate stages in between. The
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 67
practices from the Italian banks since the late twelfth century. Despite their
rising popularity, the use of banknotes in payment fell into a sort of legal
limbo, which was not officially resolved until the Promissory Notes Act of
1704.
The mid-seventeenth century was the peak of the era of tally sticks in
Britain. They were often issued by the government in anticipation of future
revenue, and were payable upon an assigned maturity. Thus, they were a
form of short-term government debt. They became quite money-like,
although they had a specific maturity and paid interest. In 1665, parliament
granted Charles II the revenue of a tax expected to raise £1.5 million in
revenue. Tallies were immediately issued against this expected future
revenue, and the revenue was directly allocated to the holders of the tallies.
In addition, paper contracts called Exchequer Orders to Pay were issued,
functionally much like the tallies but in the form of paper. The tallies and
paper orders could be traded among third parties. Between 1667 and 1671,
paper orders began to be issued not against specific revenue streams, but
against the revenue in general. Consequently, there was no implied limit on
orders issued. The system began to take the shape of a government-issued
paper currency. When a default on the payment of tallies and orders was
made in 1672 (the “Stop of the Exchequer”), 97.5% of the £1,314,940 in
tallies outstanding were held by goldsmith-bankers. 10 The six largest
holders of the tallies all failed. The nascent system of liquid government
bills and goldsmith-issued paper currency collapsed.
Although banknotes and bills in paper or ledger form displaced tallies
during the eighteenth century, tallies were not fully abolished until the late
date of 1826. The tallies were later stored in rooms in the Parliament
building. In 1834, it was decided that, to free up the space and also provide
heat, the tallies would be burned. The blaze of tally sticks got out of hand,
and burned the Parliament building to the ground.
A separate introduction of paper money in the West was made by Johan
Palmstruch, through a new institution, the private Bank of Stockholm, in
1661. The bank quickly overissued banknotes. When, in 1663, they
returned en masse to the bank to be exchanged for coinage, the bank
defaulted and ceased operations. Nevertheless, the experiment set a
precedent for Sweden. In 1668, the Riksens Ständers Bank was founded by
the Swedish government. Later renamed the Sveriges Riksbank, it remains
the central bank of Sweden to the present. It did not issue banknotes until
1701, when permission was granted to issue “credit notes.” These became
widely used by the 1740s, but ceased their convertibility in 1745 after the
Bank printed them to finance Sweden’s wars with Russia. Several cycles of
currency reform and re-establishment of convertibility continued through
the eighteenth century.
The Dutch prince William III of Orange was the son of a Dutch
nobleman, William II, and his wife Mary, the daughter of England’s King
Charles I. William III married his first cousin Mary, daughter of King James
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 69
II of England. In June of 1688, James II’s second wife bore a son, who
displaced his daughter Mary as heir to the throne. James II’s conversion to
Catholicism, his increasing ties with Catholic France then ruled by the
aggressively expansionist Louis XIV, and the new prospect of a lineage of
Catholic kings in England fond of French-style absolute monarchy and
obeisant to Rome, caused great concern within Parliament. Both England
and France had been at war with Holland, during the latter Anglo-Dutch
Wars and the Nine Years’ War. A coalition in Britain’s parliament invited
William and Mary to usurp James II, and claim the throne of England. At
first, they asked that Mary alone be queen, but she refused. The result was
joint rule, and a new alliance between England and Holland against France.
At the time, Amsterdam was the world’s financial center. Its active
market in government bonds allowed the government to fund itself at
yields between three and four percent. William needed money – a lot of it –
to finance his wars against France. At the time, the English government had
used only the system of tallies and orders as an informal sort of short-term
credit, plus direct loans from the goldsmith bankers. All were in disarray
after the Stop of the Exchequer in 1672, which also rendered unreliable the
goldsmith-bankers paper banknote issuance. William’s first attempts to
borrow money were done in small size and rates in excess of 20%. In 1692-
93, £1.0 million was raised through the issuance of government bonds, at an
effective rate of 14 percent. Another £300,000 was raised in 1694.
The Bank of England was conceived, foremost, as a coalition of private
lenders to provide government finance, specifically a loan of £1.2 million at
a rate of eight percent. In addition, the Bank aggregated the existing lenders
and bondholders to the government, whose contributed capital consisted of
a transfer of their loans and bonds to the Bank. The Bank, established in
1694, was also permitted to issue banknotes. The Bank’s original location
was atop the ruins of a Roman temple to Mithras, the God of Contracts.
In 1696, the Bank’s balance sheet looked like this: 11
circulation included silver coin of an estimated £5.6 million and gold coin
£6.0 million. 12 At a rate of 8%, an additional £193,600 of profit was
generated annually, a rather smart 25.4% return on equity. Also, by holding
such a large portion of the government’s debt, and since the government
was also reliant upon the Bank for further financing, the Bank could
exercise considerable influence upon the government, if it wished. Of the
initial capital subscription of £720,000, only 25% was immediately payable;
some investors borrowed even this sum. 13
30
Total Assets
Government Debt
25 Other government securities
Other securities
Coins and bullion
20
millions of pounds
15
10
0
1690 1700 1710 1720 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790
confiscation of 1638, and the Stop of the Exchequer in 1672, made everyone
in Britain wary of government promises, particularly during wartime.
30
Total
Base Money
25 Notes in Circulation
Capital
Deposits
7 day and other bills
20
millions of pounds
15
10
0
1690 1700 1710 1720 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790
In 1697, the Bank was allowed to increase its capital, which could be
paid up to 80% in the form of tallies, and the remainder in banknotes. The
result was that tallies were further concentrated at the Bank, which made
their administration and eventual replacement far simpler. The Bank was
also allowed to issue more banknotes. The Act of 1697 also forbade the
establishment of any other company “in the nature of a bank” while the
Bank of England existed. In practice, this referred to the issuance of
banknotes, rendering an effective near-monopoly that was reinforced by
Acts of Parliament in 1708 and 1709 that prohibited companies of more
than six people to set up banks and issue banknotes. Nevertheless, in 1844
there were 280 private banks issuing banknotes in Britain, with a banknote
issuance of £8.6 million out of a total of £31 million. 16 In that year a formal
monopoly on banknotes was granted to the Bank of England.
Scotland took a somewhat different path than Britain, despite becoming
part of the United Kingdom in 1707. The Bank of Scotland was set up along
the model of the Bank of England in 1695. However, while England tended
72 Gold: The Final Standard
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1690
1700
1710
1720
1730
1740
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
The problems of war finance that resulted in the formation of the Bank
of England also led to the emergence of a formal market in government
bonds in England, as had been the case earlier in Holland. Between 1685
and 1700, the expenses of wartime, and the new tools of finance, pushed the
British government’s total net debt from £0.8 million to £13.8 million. 17
Much of this debt was then freely traded, thus establishing the London
government bond market and money market. This in turn formed a
foundation for a wide variety of financial activities in London.
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 73
Over the next two decades, the effective yield on the British
government’s debt fell to levels typical of high-quality government debt
denominated in a reliable gold-linked currency. By 1727, the yield on
British government perpetual debt had fallen to 4%. In addition, the British
government had been successful in reducing its total debt outstanding,
which, in 1739, had fallen to a low of £4 million before the outbreak of war
that year. In 1751, all of the government’s outstanding debt was
consolidated into a single issue of perpetual Consol bonds, yielding 3.0%.
Such was the perceived reliability of the British government, both in terms
of creditworthiness and the quality of its gold-based currency, that these
bonds traded above par for several years thereafter.
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1700 1800 1900 2000
The Bank of England thus formed the nucleus of the later popularity of
gold-linked banknotes in commerce, alongside and eventually in preference
to coinage. Banknotes grew to be the dominant form of money in Britain in
the nineteenth century, eclipsing coinage in the total amount outstanding.
For the first time in Western history, money was being made primarily by
private banking institutions rather than a government mint.
74 Gold: The Final Standard
The British experience with paper money reliably linked to gold was
extraordinary in the eighteenth century. Other countries experimented with
the widespread use of banknotes in the seventeenth and eighteenth
centuries – notably Sweden, France, Japan, and Britain’s colonies in America
– but they shared a history of unreliability, overissuance and collapse.
Despite Britain’s gold-centric (though still officially bimetallic) pattern
after 1717, the British colonies in North America retained a silver-centric
basis, due to the common use of the Spanish silver dollar (among many
foreign coins) throughout the colonies, many of them obtained in defiance
of restrictions on trade with unfriendly foreign powers. The use of foreign
coins came about in part from the requirement that taxes and debts be paid
only in British coins. Combined with various Mercantilist restrictions
including an outright ban on local minting of coins, and also various bans on
privately-issued paper monies, British coins were thus constantly in
shortage in the Colonies and often sent to Britain to pay taxes and debts.
Britain also tried to limit the use of foreign coins in its colonies, including
restrictions on the external trade that served as the source of the coinage.
This pushed the colonists to devise still more alternatives, such that, in
1775, seventeen commodities were recognized as legal tender in North
Carolina, some of which, notably tobacco, sprouted subsidiary warehouse
receipt currencies of their own. Even at the time, this was regarded as a
crude and primitive stopgap, by the mostly British colonists accustomed to
centuries of silver coinage, especially when the mines of nearby Mexico
were churning out silver then shipped to Europe and China. However, this
multitude of recognized means of payment was unified by a single unit of
account, the British pounds, shillings and pence.
When reading historical accounts, it must be remembered that
practically any conceivable problem of business, economics or statecraft
can be described as “a shortage of money.” However, it appears that various
restrictions on trade and coinage did produce problems of payment in the
Colonies. Free trade in silver (including with foreigners), and free coinage
of that silver into British coins (or acceptance of silver in any form in
payment), would have resolved any such issues. These “shortages” of
coinage in the Colonies could have only come about via various human-
imposed restrictions. The population of Europe was 203 million in 1800,
while the population of the United States was 5.3 million in 1800 and only
1.6 million in 1760. There was certainly enough silver in existence to fulfill
the monetary needs of the Colonists.
In part pushed by these artificial scarcities of coinage, the American
colonies became a great experiment in the direct issue of paper currencies
by colonial governments during the eighteenth century. The Massachusetts
Bay colony made the first such issuance in 1690, to pay soldiers. The notes
(known then as “bills of credit”) were accepted as legal tender in payment
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 75
First Bank of the United States. It would be privately owned, with the
government at first holding a 20% share. Seventy-five percent of the
privately-held shares would be purchased with government debt, thus
consolidating the debt within the bank.
Washington assembled his cabinet to discuss the issue. Attorney
General Edmund Randolph felt the bill was unconstitutional. Thomas
Jefferson, then Secretary of State, decided the proposal was against both the
spirit and letter of the Constitution. James Madison (the primary author of
the Constitution) believed that Congress had not received the power, under
the Constitution, to incorporate a bank. Nevertheless, Hamilton, as Treasury
Secretary, was able to convince Washington of its merits and legality. It was
chartered in 1791, with a twenty-year charter. It was the only Federally-
chartered bank, which allowed it to operate throughout the United States.
(State-chartered banks were only allowed to operate intrastate.) The Bank’s
banknotes could be used in tax payment, and were legally redeemable for
specie on demand. At first, the bank was capitalized at $10 million, with
25% of this payable in specie. However, when it began operations, it had
only $675,000 in coin and bullion. 23 The first president of the Bank was
Thomas Willing, partner of Robert Morris, and who previously served as the
president of the Bank of North America. The U.S. government’s stake in the
bank was later sold, and the Bank of the United States thus became a wholly
private bank. 24 In January, 1798, foreigners owned an estimated 13,000 of
the 25,000 shares. By March, 1809, foreigners’ estimated holdings had
increased to 18,000 shares. 25
By the end of 1795, the U.S. government had borrowed $6.2 million
from the Bank, but these debts were later paid off. During the 1803-6
period, the government’s average deposits at the Bank amounted to $4.0-
$5.5 million. 26 At the end of the Bank’s charter in 1811, total banknote
issuance in circulation by the Bank amounted to $5,037,125. 27 The Bank’s
banknotes were highly reliable, and maintained their face value versus
specie. 28
A debate ensued whether to recharter the Bank after its original
charter expired in 1811. “A private central bank issuing the public currency
is a greater menace to the liberties of the people than a standing army,”
argued Thomas Jefferson, recently retired after two terms as President. 29
The recharter bill failed to pass Congress by one vote in the House, and one
vote in the Senate, when Vice President George Clinton voted to break a tie.
The United States’ second central bank thus passed away.
The First Bank’s demise was followed, almost immediately, by the
outbreak of hostilities with the British, in the War of 1812. Washington D.C.
was invaded by British forces in 1814, and the White House burned. The
Federal government itself got back into the money-printing business with
the issuance of Treasury Notes beginning in 1812. Treasury Note issuance
continued intermittently up until 1861, when it was superseded by issuance
78 Gold: The Final Standard
Four more years of political battles ensued, and Jackson won in the end.
The Bank’s charter expired in 1836, ending the third attempt to set up a
privately-owned “central bank” and dominant currency issuer, in the model
of the Bank of England, within the United States. In its wake, small issuers of
currency continued to proliferate, in the most libertarian era of the “free
banking” model in U.S. history. In 1860, on the eve of the Civil War, 1,562
banks were in operation and issuing their own banknotes, linked to gold at
the dollar parity of 23.2 troy grains per dollar. 34 These banks had issued a
total of $207 million of banknotes, which circulated alongside $207 million
of gold coin and $21 million of silver coin. 35
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 79
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796
The Royal Prussian Seehandlung was one of the first Germanic banks to
issue banknotes, beginning in the 1770s. The Leyhaus Bank of Brunswick,
founded in 1765, also issued banknotes. In 1846 it became known as the
Bank of Prussia, and in 1875 as the Reichsbank. In 1800, greater Germany
was still a patchwork of 314 minor states, riven by around 1,800 customs
barriers, including 67 local tariffs within Prussia alone. 41 The banking and
monetary systems showed similar decentralization, with competing
regional coinages, currencies, and units of account. The post-Napoleonic
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 81
The first known work devoted to monetary affairs was the Chinese
Chhuan Chih or Treatise on Coinage, written by Hung Tsun in 1149. In the
West, the first work was the De Moneta (“The Mint”) of Nicholas Oresme, an
advisor to Charles V of France. It was written around 1365. By this time,
governments had been debasing coinage for roughly two thousand years. In
the first words of this first book on money, Oresme neatly delineated the
two sides of a discussion that continues to the present day – those who
would keep money as unchanged as possible, a stable measure of value and
constant of commerce, and those who would manipulate it as a means to
resolve various problems of economic health and public finance.
Citing the debasement of the Roman denarius during the decline of the
Roman Empire, Oresme concluded that governments should keep their
money as stable as possible. To allow alterations of the coinage, Oresme
argued, would change the kingdom to a tyranny, and consequently expose
the kingdom to ruin and foreign takeover.
Nicholas Copernicus, in the Treatise on Money (1526), agreed with
Oresme that money should remain stable and unchanging. Copernicus’
82 Gold: The Final Standard
“Alleviating the poverty of the people,” “facilitating the supply of all the
necessities of life,” and increasing the profits of merchants and artisans
(“trade competitiveness” via devaluation), remain familiar arguments
today, “applauded by those who were heretofore granted the right to coin
money,” which today are central banks.
Mercantilism, the pattern of British economic thought common in
1600-1750, was a reflection of the royal absolutism of the time. Murray
Rothbard described: “As the economic aspect of state absolutism,
mercantilism was of necessity a system of state-building, of Big
Government, of heavy royal expenditure, of high taxes, of (especially after
the late seventeenth century) inflation and deficit finance, of war,
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 83
The collapse of Law’s paper money scheme in France, and also the
decline of British long-term government bond yields to around the 3.0%
range by 1725 – accomplishing by free-market means what decades of
legalistic restrictions had failed to do – cemented the victory of Britain’s
hard-money intellectuals, most notably Locke. The Dutch strategy, of a
reliable and unchanging money, free of government manipulation, proved
ascendant. The Mercantilists continued to refine their money-manipulation
schemes, however. Bishop George Berkeley revived many of Law’s
arguments in The Querist (1735-37), where he advocated a central bank
that would lower interest rates and expand employment and economic
activity via an expansion of money and credit.
Mercantilist thought regarding money reached a pinnacle of
sophistication with James Denham Steuart. In An Inquiry into the Principles
of Political Economy (1767), he advocated a “statesman” who would artfully
manage money, interest and credit, and thus the economy as a whole, in a
manner almost indistinguishable from today’s fiat-currency central banker.
Steuart’s paper money scheme, like William Potter’s, would be based on
mortgages on land – a premise put into action with the French assignats
two decades later, with the result that they depreciated into
hyperinflationary oblivion.
With the publication of Adam Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature and
Causes of the Wealth of Nations in 1776, Mercantilist thought was largely
swept away in favor of the Classical conception of free trade, open
competition, unobtrusive government, low taxes and unchanging money.
Nevertheless, when British pound convertibility was suspended in 1797 at
the onset of the Napoleonic Wars, rendering the pound a floating currency,
some argued that this wartime expedient could be made into a permanent
fixture, a new tool of macroeconomic management. The most fervent claims
came soon after the end of the war at Waterloo in 1815. With wartime
expenditures ceasing and calls for a return to the gold standard gaining
support in Parliament, some concluded that a new program of government
spending, directly funded by the printing press, was necessary to maintain
economic activity. Spurred by the arguments of Thomas and Matthias
Attwood, the British government did exactly that in 1817. The pound again
sank vs. gold and foreign currencies.
Aided by the hard-money arguments of David Ricardo, a retired bond
speculator who became a Minister of Parliament in 1818, Britain returned
the pound to gold in 1821. Much of the work of building political consensus
for a resumption of gold convertibility was done by the young
parliamentarian Robert Peel, who exemplified the post-Adam Smith
classical liberalism that characterized the nineteenth century. Peel thus
rejected the Mercantilist-tinged High Tory statism of his father, Sir Robert
Peel, also a parliamentarian, who opposed the resumption of bullion
convertibility (in effect, maintaining a floating fiat pound), and was the
author (in 1780) of a pamphlet called National Debt Productive of National
Prosperity. The elder Peel had purchased his son’s seat in Parliament when
the youth was twenty-one. 46
As taxes came down – the wartime income tax was eliminated
completely in 1816 – and the British pound was reliably linked to gold,
Britain enjoyed an extraordinary century of success in which it would
become the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, the world’s center of
finance, the core of a global empire, and the model to emulate everywhere.
Mercantilist thought, and with it the idea of economic management via
currency and interest-rate manipulation, nevertheless re-emerged in the
late nineteenth century, before blooming in the twentieth to become again
dominant worldwide.
86 Gold: The Final Standard
Did the influx of Spanish silver and gold from the New World, during
the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, produce a major change in the
values of gold and silver in Europe? Some have claimed a “price revolution”
from 1500 to 1650, in which “prices” rose as much as six times. But, “prices”
can mean a lot of things, including the price of land or wages, which would
be expected to rise due to any increase in real incomes. A sixfold increase
over 150 years averages 1.20% per year. A rise in real incomes, due to
increasing productivity, could easily account for such a rate of increase,
with no need to resort to monetary factors for explanation. A more accurate
picture is provided by commodity prices.
1000
900
800
700
600
metric tons
500
400
300
200
100
0
1500 1600 1700 1800
Spanish looting of the Aztec and Inca realms created an influx of gold
and silver to Europe around 1520-1550. 48 After this initial burst, further
inflows came from mining production. Silver mines in Bolivia and Mexico
led to an estimated nine-fold increase in total world silver production
during this period, from 47 tons annually in 1493-1520 to 420 tons in
1580-1615. However, there was no such increase for gold, whose estimated
production increased by only about 50% (5.8 tons to 8.8 tons) over the
same time period. 49
The value of silver, compared to gold, certainly declined, but it did not
decline very much. From 1:10.7 in 1500, the gold:silver ratio declined to
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 87
around 1:12 in 1600 and 1:15 (depending on location) in 1700. This is not a
very large move over such a long period of time, similar to today’s
dollar/euro rate progressing smoothly from $1.07/euro to $1.50/euro over
the course of two centuries. Such a history would be a better record of
stability than any two currencies over the past two hundred years.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
160
140
1570-1600=100
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1400 1500 1600
The fact that prices for base metals had no such increase suggests that
the rise was nonmonetary in nature. If anything, the record is impressively
stable, and certainly not reflective of a decline in the real values of gold or
silver by a factor of six. This notion is related to the debasement of the
British coinage during the reign of Henry VIII beginning in 1527, which
coincided with the period of initial looting of the Spanish in the Americas.
After four debasements, the English penny in 1546 had only a third of the
silver it contained in 1525. The record of British commodity prices over this
period does not present much evidence of any meaningful change in gold’s
value. If there was some drift, it was gradual enough to be visible only with
the hindsight of decades.
Even such a simple system as bullion coinage has been subject to gross
misrepresentation, continuing to the present day in college textbooks and
The Bimetallic Era, 1500-1850 89
250
200
150
1930=100
100
50
0
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
remained the basis of commerce, just as it had been for centuries and
indeed millennia, alongside a few small-scale and localized issuers of
banknotes. The monetary system of the 1840s was not much different than
that of the Rome under Octavian. Barter still played a major role in
commoners’ practical affairs. Even in the 1840s, an American farmer might
barter a horse for some lumber, or some wheat for wool, with others in the
local community. However, just as was the case in Sumer, this barter
typically took place within the context of a standard unit of account based
on gold/silver, in this case U.S. dollars. Ten dollars of apples for ten dollars
of beer. A great many other commodities also served a monetary role
through the centuries, but gold and silver were always dominant in the
world’s centers of civilization even as payment sometimes took place in
cacao beans, cowrie shells or cattle.
Although coinage went through various cycles of debasement, along
with all manner of regulations and restrictions regarding its use, valuation,
and export, in general coins’ effective market value was equivalent to the
value of their contained metals. Thus, silver coins, in all their variety, were
essentially variants on the fundamental “currency” of silver bullion; as gold
coins were variants on the fundamental currency of gold bullion. The
practical exchange rate between coins mostly reflected how much silver or
gold they contained. Coinage was regularly imported and exported, and
often melted and reminted into local denominations.
Silver and gold formed a unified gold/silver complex, just as had been
the case for millennia previous. Their practical market values were stable
enough that they amounted to much the same thing, as a standard of value
or a unit of account. The migration of the gold:silver ratio in Europe from
1:14.5 in 1700 to 1:15.5 in 1800 was a change of about 7%, spread over a
century, with annual variation below 2%. In the sometimes bewildering
accounts of what were in effect minor differences between states or eras, it
can be easy to lose the broader picture that gold and silver served as the
common currency everywhere.
Chapter 5:
The Classical Gold Standard, 1850-1914
The second half of the nineteenth century was the age of coal and steel,
electricity and petroleum, European empire, and world trade empowered
by railroad and steamship. With it came the spread of a different sort of
monetary system. The monopoly banknote-issuing central bank, modeled
upon the Bank of England, was replicated throughout Europe. Via European
empire, and the legal, administrative, and financial systems that
accompanied it, Europe’s monetary and banking systems were spread
around the world. Although paper money had become common in Europe
by 1850, it was often issued by a myriad of small banks for local use, and
remained, in most places, secondary to the metallic coinage that had served
as the primary money since antiquity. By 1913, paper banknotes were
dominant, and bank deposit balances had ballooned.
Political unification and reorganization, notably in Germany, Italy and
Spain, led also to monetary unification and standardization. As transport
and communication became easier, various bimetallic standards (with
different official gold:silver ratios) could not coexist, and were themselves
standardized before, due to an unprecedented collapse in the market value
of silver vs. gold in the mid-1870s, gold alone became the sole effective
standard. This was made possible in part by the widespread use of
banknotes, and also the use of token coins (on the principles of banknotes),
which, though made of silver, did not require that silver hold a reliable
value versus gold, as in bimetallic systems. Banks became more common,
reliable and interconnected, so that bank payments via deposit accounts
were a preferred means of larger-scale payment, even on an international
basis.
For millennia, people had used some combination of silver and gold, the
“gold/silver complex.” The final triumph of gold, as the near-universal
standard of monetary value after 1875, was not a great change compared to
all of the bimetallic or even pure silver standards that preceded it. The
values of currencies in bimetallic systems, including the U.S. dollar and the
franc-based Latin Monetary Union, did not change after the effective
transition to gold monometallism in the 1870s. In practical terms, the
switch was somewhat irrelevant. Gold monometallism was not a new
standard or system, but more of a refinement, homogenization and
simplification of the existing gold/silver complex, which had served as the
monetary standard for centuries previous. The greater triumph was that of
92 Gold: The Final Standard
10%
8%
6%
France
4%
Britain
2%
China
0%
U.S.
-2% Japan
-4%
-6%
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
needed among the U.S.’s many minor note-issuing banks. Each was able to
maintain the value of its banknotes independent of the actions of all the
others, and adjust its assets and liabilities independently to attain this goal.
The status of most central banks as monopoly- or near-monopoly issuers
did not markedly change their natures. Monopoly did not give them
dictatorial powers, but simply greater market share.
The Bank of England led by example, not by hegemony and coercion.
The only “rule of the game” 5 was to, by one of the various operating
techniques available, adjust the base money supply appropriately to
maintain currency values at their gold parities. 6
Monetary and financial arrangements nevertheless took on a much
more international and integrated character after 1870. International
movements of capital (represented as a current account surplus or deficit)
reached a level not again seen until the 1990s. Railways and steamships
enabled the production of international trade commodities, and their
transport worldwide, to an unprecedented degree. Global merchandise
trade, as a percentage of GDP, reached a level in 1913 that was not
significantly exceeded until 1995. (On a value-added basis, it has not exceed
the 1913 level to this day.) London began to be used as a clearinghouse for
all manner of international payments, thus relieving any need to transact
with long-distance shipments of coinage or bullion.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
competitive rate, and the Bank of England’s total amount of lending would
shrink. A discount rate at or slightly below the market rate could allow (on
the discretion of both borrower and lender) an increase in lending.
The discount rate acted as a means to adjust the total volume of lending
and discounting on the central bank’s balance sheet, and thus a means to
affect total base money supply. The Bank of England, and all other central
banks operating in the same model, would have to keep their discount rate
near the market rate, if they were to maintain a stable volume of lending. As
market rates changed, so too must the Bank’s discount rate. Thus, discount
rate changes are not necessarily representative of anything in themselves,
and may merely reflect natural market movements.
100
80
millions of pounds
60
40
20
0
1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910
relatively uncompetitive against other lenders. The Bank’s loan book would
shrink, along with the base money supply. This base money contraction
would tend to lead to a rise in currency value. If the currency’s value rose
above its gold parity then gold bullion would be offered to the Bank in trade
for base money. The Bank would be the highest bidder in the gold bullion
market.
Today, many interpretations of the pre-1914 era have an excessive
focus on “confidence” in central banks, and “cooperation” between central
banks. The basic reason for this is because the mechanisms by which gold
parities were maintained are not understood. 12 Without this understanding,
some reason must be invented by which currencies nevertheless
maintained unchanging gold parities for decade after decade, an experience
very different from many recent central banks whose ill-managed “currency
pegs” blow up over and over – the inherent instability of Currency Option
Three. Yet, today’s currency boards are extremely reliable, and have no
need for “confidence” or “cooperation.” These systems, like the gold
standard systems of the pre-1914 era, are automatic Currency Option One
systems.
The Bank of England served as the model for monopoly central banks
worldwide, and also illustrated typical behavior for smaller note-issuing
banks in those countries where currency monopoly had not yet been
instituted. A look at the Bank’s long-term and also short-term operation
gives a flavor of the practical application of the worldwide gold standard
during the period.
On a weekly basis, the Bank of England’s assets and liabilities showed
considerable variation. The Bank was active in bullion (gold conversion),
open-market operations in bonds, and discounting and lending on a
continuous basis. Overall base money varied considerably in the short-
term, reflecting seasonality and also a high degree of variability in public
deposits, the government’s bank account at the Bank.
Variation in gold bullion represents gold conversion. When the pound’s
value was a little below its gold parity, base money would be converted to
gold and gold outflows would ensue. This outflow would coincide with a
corresponding reduction in base money. When the pound’s value was a
little higher than its gold parity, gold inflows would occur, and base money
would expand in proportion. Continuous activity in gold shows that this
occurred on a weekly and even daily basis. Thus, any oversupply or
undersupply of base money from discounts or open-market operations of
bonds would be naturally corrected by corresponding changes in the
monetary base from gold conversion. The overall level of base money was
thus an amount appropriate to keep the value of the pound at its gold
parity. The three elements would thus often work in opposite directions: an
100 Gold: The Final Standard
120
Total Assets
Government Debt
100 Other government securities
Other securities
Coins and bullion
80
millions of pounds
60
40
20
0
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
However, on the larger scale and longer term, the Bank maintained its
gold bullion reserve in a stable ratio with base money. It did not allow
bullion reserves to decline continuously, or to expand continuously. If
bullion had an extended outflow, debt holdings could be contracted
(perhaps via a rise in the discount rate, making the Bank relatively
uncompetitive vs. other lenders), which would support the value of the
pound and thus turn outflow to inflow. Continuous bullion inflows would
indicate that debt holdings could expand, thus increasing interest-bearing
assets and the profits of the Bank. In this larger scale, debt holdings and
bullion reserves would indeed expand or contract in tandem.
Central banks that also had substantial transactions in foreign exchange
(in practice, nearly all of them except for the U.S., Britain and France) added
yet another component of complexity to the already-complex model of the
Bank of England. However, behind this complexity lay an essential
The Classical Gold Standard, 1850-1914 101
simplicity: when the currency’s value rose against the reserve currency, the
reserve currency would be bought and the domestic currency sold on the
foreign exchange market. This would increase the monetary base and thus
depress the value of the domestic currency. The opposite would occur when
the domestic currency was weak vs. the reserve currency. The operating
mechanism was thus identical to direct bullion conversion, and identical to
currency boards today. Although the simultaneous operation of bullion
conversion, foreign exchange activity, open-market operations in bonds,
and direct lending and discounting, can seem dauntingly difficult, the basic
operation was simple: when the currency’s value was high, base money
would expand; and when the currency’s value was low, base money would
contract.
120
Total
Base Money
100
Notes in Circulation
Capital
Deposits
80
millions of pounds
60
40
20
0
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
reliability. Nevertheless, the low and stable gold standard interest rates that
Amsterdam had enjoyed in the seventeenth century, and Britain in the
eighteenth, spread to government and corporate borrowers throughout the
world by the end of the nineteenth.
1,200
Coin and bullion
loans, securities, notes
1,000 discounts
800
million marks
600
400
200
-
1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905
2,500
Notes in circulation
Capital
Deposits and other liabilities
2,000 Notes and deposits
1,500
million marks
1,000
500
-
1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905
various small states that occupied the peninsula. In 1861, the Kingdom of
Italy was established, and the Italian lira was introduced that same year. It
had a value again equivalent to the French franc at 4.5 grams of silver or
290.322 milligrams of gold. Small independent banknote-issuing banks had
been active since the first half of the nineteenth century, although banknote
use was still sparse. After the introduction of the lira standard, existing
banks retained their right to issue banknotes. In 1874, six competing banks
were authorized to issue currency in Italy. A financial crisis and scandal
resulted in the Bank Act of 1893, which created the Bank of Italy from the
merger of three banknote-issuing banks; three others remained. In 1926,
the Bank of Italy gained a monopoly on banknote issuance.
4500
4000 Bullion
Commercial Discounts
3500 Total Loans
3000
million francs
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905
(except for a tiny adjustment in 1875) until 1914. From its inception, the
DNB was the sole issuer of banknotes in the Netherlands, and also served as
the government’s bank, receiving and making all government payments.
Shares in the bank were owned by private investors. The new monopoly
central bank was initially greeted with mistrust, however, and coins were
generally preferred to banknotes. 18 From 1863, the bank was required to
hold bullion equivalent to 40% of circulating banknotes.
4000
million francs
3000
2000
1000
0
1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905
participants in 1865; Peru adopted the franc system in 1863; Colombia and
Venezuela joined in 1871; Finland joined in 1877; Serbia in 1878; Bulgaria
in 1880; the Dutch West Indies in 1904; and Albania in 1912. Due to the
drop of silver vs. gold in the 1870s, bimetallism was provisionally
suspended in 1873, and this made permanent in 1878. The LMU bimetallic
system had migrated to gold monometallism.
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
6%
5%
Australia
Belgium
4%
Canada
Switzerland
3%
Germany
France
2% Britain
Netherlands
1% Sweden
0%
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
their unreliable banknotes. This was not fully accomplished until a reform
in 1898 established a monometallic gold standard system, with the State
Bank the sole issuer of high quality, redeemable banknotes. Unlike the
privately-owned Bank of England model, the State Bank of Russia was
under the direct control of the Ministry of Finance. 22
10%
9%
8%
7% Denmark
Spain
6%
Finland
5%
Italy
4% Japan
Norway
3%
Portugal
2%
1%
0%
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
$4,000
gold coin
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
1880 1890 1900 1910
The Civil War, and the issuance of United States Notes (“greenbacks”)
to finance it, led to the effective devaluation and floating of the dollar. A
long process of restoration returned the dollar to its prewar gold parity in
1879. During this time, in 1873, production of silver coinage was halted,
which effectively put the dollar on a monometallic gold basis as was
occurring in Europe at the time. Thus, the United States, although it did not
have a monopoly central bank in the model of the Bank of England,
110 Gold: The Final Standard
basis of value from that point hence. Silver, which had been a mirror image
of gold for centuries, became unusable as a practical standard of value.
money;” and for all of these problems, one simple solution presented itself.
The Mercantilists’ vision of managing the economy by manipulating the
currency began to dance again in their dreams.
A liquidity-shortage crisis in the U.S. in 1907, exacerbated by reserve
requirements that prevented banks from using the resources they had,
provided the political impetus for the introduction of the Federal Reserve in
1913. The Federal Reserve was not supposed to be a “central bank” in the
model of the Bank of England. It would not have a currency monopoly or be
a dominant issuer of banknotes. To allay fears of centralization, the Federal
Reserve system was conceived as a combination of twelve regional banks.
Nor was the Federal Reserve supposed to act as a regular commercial
discount bank, as the Bank of England did. Rather, it was supposed to stand
idly by, awaiting a crisis such as that of 1907. It might have to wait years,
even decades. In a crisis, it would make short-term loans at a penalty
interest rate; a few weeks later, these loans would be paid back, and the
Federal Reserve would return to idleness. In the meantime, it would act as a
payments clearinghouse between banks, replacing existing institutions in
that role. The 1907 crisis was the last liquidity-shortage crisis in the U.S.
The outbreak of war in 1914, and the U.S. entry into that war in 1917
just as the Federal Reserve system was becoming operational, radically
changed the Federal Reserve’s activities. During the 1920s, the Federal
Reserve was acting in much the manner of the Bank of England, active in
the discounting market on a continuous basis and experimenting with
open-market operations in government bonds. Federal Reserve banknotes
constituted roughly half of all banknotes in circulation. By the end of World
War II, the Federal Reserve had become an effective monopoly central bank.
300
Bullion
250 Foreign Reserves
Private-sector loans
200 Government loans and bonds
millions of kronor
150
100
50
0
1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
In 1903, the governments of Mexico and China asked for the services of
American economists to discuss monetary options. President Theodore
Roosevelt requested the organization of a group known as the “Commission
of the Gold Exchange Standard.” The group soon focused on the Philippines,
which had become a U.S. colonial interest after being taken from Spain in
the Spanish-American War of 1898, and after the U.S. military defeated a
local independence movement in the Philippine-American War of 1899-
1902. The Philippines had a tradition of silver coinage, along with China,
which had become problematic due to the decline in the value of silver
since the 1870s. The chief architect of the Philippine gold exchange
standard was Edwin Walter Kemmerer, who later designed several gold
exchange standards for Latin American countries in the 1920s. 33
The Classical Gold Standard, 1850-1914 115
The pre-1914 pattern was largely replicated after 1920, with core
European countries on an independent gold standard system and
peripheral countries on some form of gold-exchange standard. The
increasing use of banknotes instead of bullion coins in peripheral countries
after 1920, and the further establishment of monopoly central banks
throughout the world outside of Europe, increased the general dependence
upon gold-exchange standard arrangements as decades passed.
400
Banknotes
350
Deposits
Capital
300 Banknotes + Deposits
250
millions of kronor
200
150
100
50
0
1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
exchanged for gold with the central bank. In this way, the central bank
could avoid transactions in gold. Thus, there was an effective continuum,
from currency managers that did not use such mechanisms at all, to those
who used them 100% of the time, thus mimicking a modern currency board
completely in operations, although even in that case they might still hold
some gold bullion as a reserve asset.
In 1913, the Sveriges Riksbank had foreign currency reserve assets
(bonds, bills and bank deposits) of 122.1 million kronor, compared to gold
reserves of 102.1 million kronor. Although the central bank maintained
direct gold convertibility, over 99% of its transaction volume in
“international assets” (gold and foreign exchange) that year was via foreign
exchange, in five different currencies – Norwegian and Danish kroner,
British pounds, German marks, and French francs. 35 In this way, it was
acting much like a currency board, with five different reserve currencies
reflecting the underlying single currency of gold. The Riksbank was also
highly active in domestic lending and discounting, with holdings of 180.1
million kronor of private loans, and 3.4 million kronor of domestic
securities.
120
100
80
British pence
60
40
20
0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920
120
100
80
60 Spain 1870=100
Italy 1905=100
40 Greece 1910=100
Chile 1870=100
Portugal 1870=100
20
Argentina 1882=100
0
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
In Italy, banks were so little used in 1861 that bank deposits totaled
only 13% of currency in circulation – not surprising considering the
political turmoil leading to the establishment of the Kingdom of Italy that
year. By 1885, bank deposits exceeded currency in circulation, and in 1913,
deposits were 266% of currency. 47
The unification of Germany, and the unification of its currency with the
introduction of the mark and a Reichsbank monopoly, was followed by a
giant expansion of banking. In 1880, commercial banks had 529 million
marks of deposits, compared to 945 million of banknotes in circulation and
1,275 million of gold coin. 48 In 1907, deposits had risen to 7,067 million
marks, 49 an increase of thirteen times. Acceptance credit among Berlin’s
nine largest banks grew from 8.2 million marks in 1860 to 80.3 million in
1880 and 1,392 million in 1913. 50 In 1907, the Reichsbank had 1,478
million marks of banknotes in circulation. Other note-issuing banks had a
total of 142 million marks. 51 The banknote/deposit ratio was 1:4.4 that
year.
In 1871, deposits of savings banks in France were 537 million francs. In
1908, this had expanded to 5,226 million. 52 However, this was still
relatively low compared to 2,307 million of gold coinage in circulation, and
4,310 million of banknotes, in 1903. 53
In 1880, the U.S. had currency in circulation of $973 million, consisting
of $226 million of gold coin, $69 million of silver coin, and $678 million of
banknotes. 54 Bank deposits totaled $2,082 million. The currency/deposit
ratio was 1:2.1. In 1913, currency totaled $3,419 million including $608
million of gold coin, $226 million of silver coin, and $2,530 million of
banknotes. Bank deposits totaled $17,735 million, a currency/deposit ratio
of 1:5.2. 55
Two mining booms took place in the 1840-1914 period, which have
often been accused of causing changes in the value of gold during that time.
The first began in the 1840s.
By 1847, the production of gold mines had already expanded
considerably, with Russia alone contributing about 25 metric tons out of a
total of 54 metric tons that year. This was more than triple the 17 metric
tons that had been mined in 1830. However, that rise was soon
overshadowed when gold was discovered in California in January 1848.
World production reached a peak of 227 tons in 1855, over thirteen times
the 1830 level. The quantities were unimaginable: in 1848, two men with
hand tools were said to have extracted $17,000 (about 822 ounces) of gold
in seven days’ work. 56 A mania ensued. Additional discoveries in Australia
in 1851 raised global production still further.
But did this unprecedented expansion in mine output undermine gold’s
role as a stable measure of value? Did gold’s value change? Gold is generally
The Classical Gold Standard, 1850-1914 121
not consumed, but instead accumulates gradually over time, in the form of
bullion and jewelry. In 1855, an estimated 18,461 metric tons of
aboveground gold existed in the world, the product of over 4,500 years of
gold mining throughout human history. A The 227 tons mined in 1855 was
only 1.3% of this figure. For most commodities, annual production and
“supply” are nearly synonymous. However, in this case, the “supply” of gold
hardly changed. Thus, it would not be surprising to find that the value of
gold also hardly changed.
3,000
2,500
2,000
metric tons
1,500
1,000
500
0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
A This estimate comes from Gold Fields Minerals Services, an analytical advisory
now part of Thompson/Reuters. Aboveground gold statistics are subject to
substantial debate. Production statistics after 1492 are generally agreed-upon, but
estimates of accumulated production before 1492 are wildly divergent. GFMS’s
implied estimate of 12,780 tons in 1492 is on the high end of debated figures. It is
apparently based on a study by Govett and Govett (1982). Others, including Turk
(2012), have argued for figures that are half or less than this. Cutting the pre-1492
figure in half, for example, would reduce the 1848 aboveground gold figure by 6,390
tons, or 37%. By 1920, the difference loses relevance as the GFMS aboveground gold
estimate is 40,113 tons. In 2011, it was 171,300 tons.
122 Gold: The Final Standard
250
200
150
metric tons
100
50
0
1820 1830 1840 1850
25,000
20,000
15,000
metric tons
10,000
5,000
0
1820 1830 1840 1850
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1820 1830 1840 1850
After 1860, the Civil War makes interpretation of U.S. commodity prices
difficult. However, annual data of commodity prices in Britain indicate that
no great rise in commodity prices followed 1850. Instead, after a slightly
anomalous dip in the 1840s, prices were quite stable around a plateau that
was unchanged since roughly 1600. Thus, it appears that the extraordinary
increase in gold production in the 1850s caused no meaningful change in
gold’s value.
During the 1880s and 1890s, world commodity prices fell to unusual
lows, creating distress among a broad swath of commodity producers
including family farms. Did this “deflation” represent a monetary effect
caused by a rise in gold’s value, or was it again a matter of the
supply/demand conditions for commodities – a lower market value for
commodities, as measured in money of stable value?
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
Mining supply of gold tapered gently down during this period, as the
discoveries of California and Australia were depleted. However, the levels of
production were still many multiples of anything in the pre-1840 era,
averaging about 170 tons per year, or ten times the figure for 1830.
Centuries of low mining production prior to 1840 had never caused a
meaningful rise in gold’s value.
In 1887, mining production began to rise again, due to the mammoth
Witwatersrand discovery in South Africa in 1886. In 1895, global
production hit 297 tons, a 93% increase from 1886, and an all-time high up
to that point. It later rose to 707 tons in 1912, about four times its earlier
The Classical Gold Standard, 1850-1914 125
level. South Africa provided around 280 tons, or 40% of this total. In 1893,
another discovery in Kalgoorlie, Australia led to a peak production of 119
tons in 1903, although that fell off quickly afterwards. A discovery in the
Klondike, Alaska, in 1896 spurred a dramatic migration of adventurers, but
actual production was small compared to either South Africa or Australia,
averaging only about 25 tons per year over the three years of its peak. 62 The
increase in global production was impressive, but still modest in terms of
total aboveground gold supplies, representing 2.09% of that figure at the
peak in 1909. 63
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Gold production was not particularly low prior to 1890, nor did it
change in a fashion suggestive of a rise in gold’s value without precedent in
the previous three centuries. When commodity prices made a low in 1896,
gold production had been rising for a decade, and had nearly doubled to the
highest levels ever seen up to that point.
Arguments for a rise in gold’s monetary value in the 1880-1895 period
thus turn toward demand; in particular, demand from the world’s new
central banks for bullion reserves in the midst of dramatic economic
126 Gold: The Final Standard
expansion during that time, and also demand related to the switch to gold
monometallism after 1870.
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
metric tons
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
800
700
600
500
metric tons
400
300
200
100
0
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920
doubling in a single human generation. Between 1896 and 1913 the growth
rate of production fell to 0.82% annually, or a 16% total increase during
that interval. In 1930, the index was only 4% higher than in 1913. 68 Exports
of U.S. wheat were 37 million bushels in 1870, the highest in U.S. history up
to that point. In 1892, wheat exports made a peak of 157 million bushels,
more than four times greater. This was the highest level reached until the
outbreak of World War I. 69
60%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1845
1850
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
200
180
160
140
120
1930=100
100
80
60
40
20
0
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
roughly 50% vs. gold by the mid-1890s (32:1 vs. 16:1), “free coinage” would
have effectively allowed anyone to take silver with a market value of $0.50
and make a $1 coin from it. The result would have been an effective 50%
devaluation of the dollar and a consequent silver standard, which would
have floated in value against the monometallic gold systems common
throughout Europe. From a monetary standpoint, the United States would
abandon Britain, France and Germany, and join China.
600
U.S.
Germany
500
Britain producer goods
400
1880=100
300
200
100
0
1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910
urging of his own party and indeed going farther in his pro-gold support
than many Republicans. In the 1896 election, the Democratic Party rejected
the incumbent Cleveland, and instead put forth the starkly pro-silver
William Jennings Bryan as their candidate. This led to another round of
financial turmoil, known as the Panic of 1896. The victory of pro-gold
Republican William McKinley effectively settled the “free coinage” debate.
With the threat of devaluation resolved, business boomed. The Gold
Standard Act of 1900 officially put the United States on a monometallic gold
basis. 76
Similar things were happening worldwide, expressed by the large
numbers of bimetallists (in effect, “free coinage” advocates from other
countries) at an international monetary conference in 1892. Other financial
troubles, such as the near-collapse of Britain’s Barings Bank in 1890,
marred the early part of the decade. Barings had been involved in making
loans and underwriting debt to the government of Argentina, a major
commodity producer, which threatened to default. The government also
began printing currency to meet its fiscal needs, leading to a substantial
drop in the value of banknotes. Barings was one of London’s largest banks
at the time, and the prospect of its failure threatened much of the British
financial system. The Crisis of 1890 enveloped a broad swath of financial
institutions worldwide, and emerging markets in general. It has been called
“the first-ever emerging-markets crisis of the modern era.” 77
Reviewing gold’s performance as a standard of stable monetary value
during the nineteenth century, we find that the apparent worst-case
scenario (the 1880-1895 period) was actually a time of considerable
economic expansion and wealth-creation. Nobody expects gold to be a
perfect representation of the ideal of Stable Money. However, the deviation
of gold from that perfect ideal, whatever it may have been, was small
enough not to matter very much.
In the Theory of Money and Credit (1912), Ludwig Von Mises, as if giving
a warning to the Fischers and Jevonses of his day, made much the same
point:
Gesell was considered a marginal crank in his day, but his proposals were
remarkably similar to the policies of major central banks in 2016.
On the eve of World War I, the world gold standard was considered a
near-unanimous success. Those who had lived with it, who had directly
enjoyed all the advantages it offered and suffered any consequences, looked
back on their work with a mood of self-congratulation. Major exchange
rates were fixed worldwide. Governments whose currencies floated were
chided for their irresponsibility; mostly, these views were shared by those
governments themselves. Bond yields around the world converged on the
low and stable rates that the Britain had enjoyed for nearly two centuries.
In the midst of the troubling decline of commodity prices during the 1880s
and 1890s, and “free coinage” arguments that amounted to currency
devaluations, governments had decided to remain fixed to gold. Two
splendid decades followed. In the end, the biggest problems were caused by
the “free coinage” debates themselves – the turmoil caused by their risk of
passage clouded the early 1890s with a series of financial crises. Technical
issues regarding short-term demand for base money had been largely
resolved by the Bank of England’s “lender of last resort” function. In the
U.S., restrictions related to the National Bank System prevented individual
banks from accommodating these short-term changes, causing a crisis in
1907 that led, eventually, to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
Triumphs of technology were quickly followed by triumphs of
capitalism, as huge sums were invested in the implementation of the new
breakthroughs. The electric light bulb was invented in 1879. In 1895, a
hydroelectric dam was built at Niagara Falls, New York, to power the new
electric utility grid. The first modern oil well, at Titusville, Pennsylvania in
1859, led to the creation of Standard Oil by John D. Rockefeller in 1870, and
its eventual breakup in 1911, when it had become so immense that the U.S.
Supreme Court declared it an illegal monopoly. Kerosene from petroleum
soon displaced whale oil for lighting, its price falling from 26 cents a gallon
in 1870 to 9.2 cents in 1911. The American whaling fleet reached its peak of
199 ships in 1858. Gasoline powered the first internal-combustion engines.
The pioneering assembly-line techniques that allowed the Ford Model T to
be introduced in 1908 at the radically low price of $850 were imitated in
many other industries. By 1925, the car’s price had fallen to $260. Between
1870 and 1890, world steel production increased by twenty times, as the
Bessemer Process reduced production costs by a factor of six. Cheap steel
poured into railways, ships, bridges, and new steel-framed buildings. In the
peak year of 1887, the United States added 12,876 miles of new rail. New
York’s Brooklyn Bridge of 1883 was followed, in 1902, by New York's first
“skyscraper,” the 22-story Flatiron Building. The Wright Brothers’ initial
The Classical Gold Standard, 1850-1914 135
success with heavier-than-air flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903 led, only a decade
later, to the aerial dogfights of World War I.
It was one of the finest eras of wealth-creation and general prosperity
since the first glimmerings of the Industrial Revolution around 1780.
Titanic fortunes were made; but the middle and working classes also
enjoyed steadily rising wages and new opportunities. Throughout Asia,
Africa and Latin America, a vast influx of European capital and expertise
helped lift the poorest out of poverty, even as it came with European
political supremacy. For the multitudes of Asian poor, the new European
despots were usually no worse than the homegrown despots and barbarian
invaders they had suffered under for centuries. New railroads and
telegraphs crisscrossed India, China and southern Africa.
At the time, money based on gold was simply conventional wisdom;
wisdom mostly unchanged for five thousand years. Perhaps only after the
catastrophes of World War I could the achievements of that era be fully
appreciated. Benjamin Anderson was Chase National Bank’s chief
economist from 1920 to 1939. He recalled:
Hungary, Poland, the Baltic states and Russia, which had by then
become the Soviet Union.
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
U.S.: Value of $1000 in Gold Oz., 1922-1941 2
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
ANote: Values of currencies vs. gold reflect official exchange rates with the U.S.
dollar, which were under capital controls during wartime. The official value of the
U.S. dollar during wartime was unchanged at $20.67/oz. The U.S. dollar’s true value
vs. gold sank during the war, due to pressure on the Federal Reserve to finance war
deficits, but this deviation was masked by the wartime gold embargo. Beginning in
1919, and certainly by the end of 1922, these issues were resolved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
140
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1916 1913
1917 1914
1918 1915
1919 1916
1920 1917
1921 1918
1922 1919
1923 1920
1921
1924
1922
1925
1923
1926
1924
1927
1925
1928
1926
1929
1927
1930 1928
Gold: The Final Standard
1931 1929
1932 1930
1933 1931
1934 1932
1935 1933
1936 1934
1937 1935
1938 1936
1939 1937
1940 1938
1941 1939
1940
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 141
30
25
20
15
10
0
1910 1920 1930 1940
The Great Depression began with a decline in U.S. stock prices at the
end of 1929. Although some minor Latin American currencies depreciated
immediately after the initial stock market distress, the world gold standard
nevertheless was maintained mostly intact until Britain devalued in
September 1931. This explosive event, of what was then the world’s
premier international currency, was followed by a chain of devaluations
worldwide, and effectively pitched the world into an environment of
currency chaos. Some countries, notably the United States, devalued but
remained on a gold standard system at a devalued rate. This embrace of
gold standard discipline, even after the 1933 devaluation, was a major
reason why the U.S. dollar became the world’s dominant international
currency afterwards. A few countries did not devalue, including Germany,
Poland, Bulgaria and Turkey, but especially in the case of Germany, this
involved substantial capital controls that obscured true conditions. In most
cases including Britain and France, devaluations were followed by floating
currencies, in a worldwide stew of currency turmoil combined with
extensive capital controls, a collapse of international trade, and, eventually,
increasing military activity.
In the end, the reconstructed world gold standard system existed for
only about six years, between the resumption of British pound gold
convertibility at the prewar parity in 1925, and Britain’s devaluation and
floating of the pound in 1931. Despite its brevity, or perhaps because of it,
142 Gold: The Final Standard
The gold standard system seemed to receive blame for all manner of
ills, but this was based on the idea that governments should have
responded to the worsening recession with some sort of monetary action –
in essence, a devaluation. Although this idea grew in stature in the following
decades, none of the major “interpretations” of the Interwar Period – the
mainstream Keynesian, the Monetarist, the Austrian, and other minor
variants – claimed that gold, in its role as a standard of value, underwent
some violent and historically-unprecedented change in value, of world-
economy-destroying magnitude. Except for some minor particulars, the
natural evolution of institutions that had always been in constant evolution,
there was little substantial difference between the gold standard era of
1925-1931, and the 1900-1914 period.
The resumption of the world gold standard during the 1920s was
accompanied by excellent economic results, at least in those countries that
also reduced high wartime tax rates. In the United States, where tax rates
fell throughout the decade, the “Roaring Twenties” enjoyed the widespread
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 143
35
30
25
1982=100
20
15
10
0
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
During the Great Depression itself, and also the decades that followed,
economists were largely blind to these nonmonetary factors. Although the
higher tariffs were broadly blamed for the downturn in international trade
that followed, many others considered high tariffs to be an effective
counter-recessionary measure, as it protected domestic industry. Higher
taxes to reduce government budget deficits was a canon of responsible
public policy at the time. Budget deficits themselves were considered a
major economic negative; by resolving them, higher taxes were thought to
help bring about economic recovery.
The study of economics was once known as “political economy.” The
term differentiated from household economy, or the running of the
household – the original meaning of the term “economics.” “Political” meant
the study of government in the broad sense. Thus “political economy”
meant, more or less, the study of government economic policy. This was a
wide-ranging topic that had been explored from the earliest times, and
discussed by the philosophers of ancient Greece and China. It involved
taxation, money, price controls, regulation of every sort of economic
activity, trade policy, welfare systems, public spending, education, religion
and morality, the response to war, famine, disease, or natural disaster, and
every other conceivable aspect of statecraft.
In the 1870s, as the Industrial Revolution forever changed economic
relationships using the tools of science, technology, physics and
mathematics, economists wished to advance their study from the realm of
gentlemanly speculation to something like a science. In 1874, Leon Walras
expressed the new spirit in his book Elements of Pure Economics. The title
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 147
(including Britain) been reduced to balance the budget exactly when they
were needed most, would be expanded. Interest rates would be
manipulated to produce desired reactions in investment and saving. Prices
might be manipulated, through regulation or restrictions on supply. The
money would become a floating fiat currency to allow interest-rate
manipulation, or could be devalued to influence nominal prices, profit and
loss, foreign exchange rates and trade relationships, or to effectively lower
wages, the key price affecting employment. The Keynesian solution,
expressed in Keynes’ 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest
and Money, took the “general equilibrium” models of the nineteenth
century, and put them to use in service of big-government socialism. A
theory of self-organizing non-intervention became a roadmap for
centralized influence and control, using prices, interest and money.
The economists allied with small-government conservatism, notably
the Austrians and, later, the Monetarists, were not satisfied with the idea
that capitalism was inherently unstable and doomed to ultimate failure.
They wanted reasons for such an unprecedented disaster. But they too
stayed within the prices, interest and money box. With little to complain
about regarding prices and interest rates, which were largely free of
government molestation, they focused on money. 19 Friedrich Hayek,
Keynes’ intellectual opponent in the 1930s, wrote books titled Monetary
Theory and the Trade Cycle (1929), Prices and Production (1931) and Profits,
Interest and Investment (1939). “The trade cycle is a purely monetary
phenomenon,” claimed economist Ralph Hawtrey in 1922. 20 It was an
absurd notion, but it didn’t seem so at the time.
The problem, they argued, was either that governments had interfered
where they should not have, in prices, interest and money (Austrian), or
that governments had failed in their job to keep the money stable
(Monetarist). By claiming some sort of monetary problem, they implicitly or
explicitly blamed the gold standard systems of the time. In this way, the
small-government free-market economists, who had always been the
primary defenders of Stable Money in principle and the gold standard in
practice, became its primary critics. A strange role-inversion took place: As
the conservatives “blamed money” in one way or another, the socialists did
not.
The conservative economists also did not focus on the many
nonmonetary errors of government policy taking place. This also had
political roots: many of the errors, including higher tariffs, higher domestic
taxes, an excessive fixation on budget deficits, and the slashing (in some
countries) of welfare program budgets exactly when they were most
needed, were undertaken by the small-government conservative politicians
of the time. Then as now, economics was highly politicized, in no small part
because economists tended to draw their livelihoods, directly or indirectly,
via some political affiliation. A small-government conservative economist
that criticized the policies of conservative governments did not have much
150 Gold: The Final Standard
of a place to go in those days, and nobody wanted to lose their job in the
middle of the Great Depression.
The idea that the Great Depression had nonmonetary causes – and that
there was no particular problem with the gold standard systems of the time
– was the prevailing view until the 1960s, and continues to be a major
“interpretation” today. It always lay at the heart of the Keynesian view. But
Keynesianism did not require any identification of causes at all; and
consequently, did not find any. The idea that nonmonetary government
policy – tariffs, taxes, regulation, and all the rest – was the initial cause of
the Great Depression was not embraced until the 1970s, with the “supply
side” school of economics. In the 1970s, the idea emerged that reducing
high tax rates would produce an economic benefit. It was an ancient
concept. The Confucian philosopher Mencius (372-289 B.C.) persuaded
many princes of the benefits of the “well-field system” of taxation, which
was an effective one-ninth (11%) tax rate on agricultural production – far
more lenient than the oppressive and typically arbitrary tax practices in
China at the time. For merchants, Mencius suggested 10%. The basic
principle re-emerged as the “flat tax” proposals of the 1980s and 1990s. It
was one of the first major intellectual excursions outside the realm of
prices, interest and money since the 1870s, a century earlier.
People looked for historical examples of their low-tax principles, and
discovered the tax reforms of president Kennedy in the 1960s, Andrew
Mellon in the 1920s, those of Germany and Japan in the 1950s and 1960s,
and France in the 1920s. It naturally followed that increasing tax rates, or
other harmful nonmonetary incursions upon the workings of the private
sector, could be an economic negative; and the Great Depression offered
itself as an obvious example of the principle. With this insight, no longer
was it necessary for a small-government conservative economist to choose
between the uncomfortable idea that economies disintegrate for no good
reason; or to otherwise claim that there was some kind of catastrophic
problem with the money, even while governments adhered to the gold
standard system. Capitalism was not inherently unstable, and did not
require big-government socialism to tame it, including a floating fiat
currency that would allow price and interest rate manipulation, or some
sort of “easy money” response to problems that nobody understood.
But, it did require that governments behave themselves, and implement
constructive economic policy rather than destructive. “Political economy”
was back. Again the field opened beyond prices, interest and money to
embrace taxes, regulation, spending and welfare programs; all of
government policy in all of its details and specifics, not just as some
numerical aggregate of “government demand.” Microeconomics and
macroeconomics were again merged in a coherent continuum of
understanding. Now it could be seen why economists’ mathematical
models, which they had cultivated since the 1870s, didn’t work.
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 151
Austrian Interpretations
4,000
$millions
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
During the 1920s, the Federal Reserve was not a monopoly issuer of
banknotes in the United States. Roughly half of the banknotes in circulation
were U.S. Treasury gold certificates and other U.S. Treasury notes, and also
banknotes of thousands of National Banks. The Federal Reserve balance
sheet at the time aggregated the gold reserves of the Treasury and National
152 Gold: The Final Standard
Banks, and also the banknote liabilities of the Treasury and National Banks,
thus providing a picture of the total monetary system.
On the asset side of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, we find gold
reserves, and also a variety of credit instruments, including “bills
discounted,” “bills bought,” “U.S. government securities,” and “other” assets.
These non-gold assets are aggregated as “total credit.”
7,000
$ millions
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
Federal Reserve to help finance the government during World War I and
the period immediately after. The overissuance of currency led to declining
dollar value, although this was hidden by wartime capital controls. As the
wartime gold embargo was lifted in 1919, gold flowed out due to gold
convertibility, indicating that the value of the dollar was below its gold
parity of $20.67/oz. To raise the value of the dollar, base money supply was
limited and then contracted in 1921, accompanied by gold inflows. This
contributed to a sharp but brief recession in 1921, which was also
moderated by substantial reductions in the high tax rates left from the war.
By the end of 1922, this period of correction was complete, and a return to
normalcy at the prewar $20.67/oz. parity was achieved including full gold
convertibility.
After 1922, base money shows a smooth curve, with surprisingly little
expansion despite the dramatic economic advances of the period. This
curve of base money growth was essentially the residual outcome of the
gold standard policy. If the dollar’s value was below its parity, then gold
outflows would lead to a contraction in the monetary base, as was the case
in 1919. If the dollar’s value was above its parity, gold inflows would lead to
an expansion of the monetary base. Continual changes in the quantity of
gold reserves show that this convertibility process was active.
The Federal Reserve also held a variety of credit assets over which it
held some discretion, in large part replicating the manner of the Bank of
England in the pre-1914 period. The composition of these credit assets
varied considerably, but their total maintained a rather even level
throughout the decade, with a seasonal spike related to the year-end. A
minor dip can be noted in 1924, and a modest rise around 1928. These dips
and rises were countered by changes in gold reserves, producing the
smoother curve of overall base money. The changes in gold reserves came
about via the conversion process. The reduction in base money caused by
the dip in credit in 1924 led to a rising dollar value – for example, a dollar
that was worth 1/20th of an ounce of gold on the open market (a “gold price
of $20.00/oz.”), rather than the parity value of 1/20.67th (“$20.67/oz.”). If
the market price is $20.00/oz., and the Federal Reserve is willing to pay
$20.67/oz., then the Federal Reserve (or Treasury) becomes the highest
bidder, and purchases gold. Base money expands.
The contrary process took place in 1928. As base money expanded due
to an increase in credit assets, the value of the dollar sank vs. its gold parity.
For example, the open market value of the dollar could be 1/21st of an
ounce (“$21.00/oz.”) instead of 1/20.67th. The Federal Reserve becomes the
cheapest seller of gold, gold flows out, and base money contracts.
The end result was that any excessive expansion of credit assets would
be countered by gold outflows, and any excessive contraction of credit
assets would be countered by gold inflows, thus producing a total base
money supply that maintained the $20.67/oz. gold parity. The base money
supply was thus generated as an automatic consequence of the fixed-value
154 Gold: The Final Standard
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
Many have claimed that the Federal Reserve’s actions were contrary to
what they perceive to be the “rules” of a gold standard system: that changes
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 155
10%
4-6m commercial paper
9% 90 day bankers' acceptances
8% 90 day Stock Exchange loans
Federal Reserve discount rate
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
meeting, Strong said his actions would deliver “a little coup de whiskey to
the stock market.” 28 In any case, a modest expansion in Total Credit,
beginning in May 1927, accompanied a small reduction in the Federal
Reserve’s official discount rate, which was reversed a few months later.
This expansion in credit was completely offset by gold conversion
outflows, and resulted in no change in base money supply, from what it
would have been without this action. The outcome was no different than if
Strong had stayed home and played dominoes. The Federal Reserve could
not have caused the effects Rothbard claimed, because the Federal Reserve
did not actually do anything at all, and couldn’t have even if it wanted to
(which, apparently, it did). But, the notion that the Federal Reserve was
somehow engaging in a meaningful “activist” policy of discretionary
management was thick in the air. 29 Strong himself seemed to believe so;
and also Adolph Miller, a member of the Federal Reserve board of
governors at the time. In Congressional testimony, he claimed that the 1927
actions were an inflationary policy that produced an “inevitable” reaction
leading to the collapse of late 1929 – a position essentially the same as
Rothbard’s. 30 Lionel Robbins, a prominent economist of the time, also took
a similar view.
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Yet Norman was one of the era’s great gold standard advocates. According
to Norman, failure to restore the gold standard, in Britain and throughout
the world, would result in “violent fluctuations of the exchanges, with
probably progressive deterioration of the values of foreign currencies vis-a-
vis the [gold-linked] dollar; it would provide an incentive to all of those who
were advancing novel ideas for nostrums and expedients other than the
gold standard to sell their wares; and incentives to governments at times to
undertake various types of paper money expedients and inflation.” 32
By the end of the 1920s, modest ambitions for an activist monetary
policy had ensnared the era’s gold standard advocates, even as they held
the ramparts against a tide of more aggressive soft-money notions. The
view commonly held before 1914, that the purpose of a gold standard
system was simply to maintain the value of the currency at the gold parity,
and that great economic advantages flow from this, was fading from their
vision. The debates of the 1890s, the floating currency experience during
and after World War I, the debates surrounding the return to gold in the
1920s, the general trend toward greater socialist involvement in all spheres
of government – perhaps even the broad notion that the success of
technological innovation justified overturning existing practices in all fields
of endeavor – created a new interest in the possibilities presented by
currency manipulation. In A Tract on Monetary Reform (1924) – the British
pound was still a floating currency at the time – John Maynard Keynes
wrote:
clouding of their vision, they would surely have noticed that nothing was
actually being achieved by their activist ambitions, and that nothing could
be achieved without departing the gold standard policy entirely and
embracing floating fiat currencies.
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
They inherited the traditions, habits and forms, but were forgetting the
principles behind them. Nevertheless, enough held over from the pre-1914
period that effective management of the gold standard policy did take place.
Currencies’ real market values were maintained at gold parities, and base
money adjustment was undertaken appropriately to achieve this goal. Gold
convertibility was a chief element of this. To a large extent, even central
bankers did not really understand what convertibility, the inflows and
outflows of gold bullion, represented – variations in the value of their
currencies from their gold parities. They blamed the actions of other central
banks, a “balance of payments imbalance,” or a dozen other things, in much
the manner that economists do today. All of these themes became more
entrenched under the pressures of the 1930s, and further still in the
Bretton Woods era of 1944-1971.
Monetarist Interpretations
The Federal Reserve did not “contract the money supply” in 1929-1932.
Total base money expanded. Should it have expanded more? To do so
would have caused the value of the dollar to sag vs. its gold parity, leading
to gold outflows and, if this expansion continued, the eventual failure of the
gold standard system. Should the Federal Reserve, perhaps, have had less
base money expansion? This would have created gold inflows, thus
correcting any undersupply of base money, which is exactly what was
already happening in 1929-1931. The actual base money supply of the
Federal Reserve was thus exactly what it should have been, to maintain the
value of the dollar at the gold parity. The automatic operating mechanisms
of the gold standard system insured that it would be so. The Federal
Reserve did not have the discretionary ability to take any action that would
have meaningfully affected bank deposits. That would have required a
floating currency.
The Federal Reserve’s task, in the 1920s and 1930s, was to maintain
the value of the dollar at its gold parity, and to address any genuine
liquidity-shortage crises that may arise, indicated by very high short-term
borrowing rates. The Federal Reserve did both admirably, in challenging
conditions. 35
Between 2010 and 2015, the nominal GDP of Greece declined by 25%,
as the economy buckled under relentless tax increases. This was without a
tariff war (another form of taxes), or many of the other negative factors that
were present during the 1930s. M2 in Greece, the credit measure favored
by Friedman, fell by over 40% in the 2010-2015 period. Greece was part of
the eurozone, and used the euro common currency. Many economists,
comparing the euro to the gold standard of the early 1930s, called for
Greece to leave the eurozone and devalue. But Greece’s problems were not
monetary. Other eurozone members, that did not have Greece’s
nonmonetary problems, also did not have Greece’s disastrous outcomes.
The idea of “activist” monetary policy had become widespread enough,
by the early 1930s, that the Federal Reserve came under criticism that it
was undersupplying base money. Under direct pressure from Congress, in
1932 the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive program of
government securities purchases, to resolve any doubts that it was being
stingy with its base money supply. The result was an immediate outflow of
gold, indicating that base money was being oversupplied, and that the
dollar’s value was sagging vs. its gold parity. The gold outflow naturally
canceled out the effects of the purchase, in this case also accompanied by a
decline in discount lending. (The decline in discount lending was related to
the reduction in short-term market rates caused by the open-market
purchases. If there was no decline in discount lending, gold outflows would
have been larger.) The purchase of $1,009 million of government securities
between March and July 1932 was offset by $431 million of gold outflows,
and a $239 million decline in other lending, resulting in a net base money
expansion of $336 million – a net expansion that still would have occurred
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 161
300
250
200
billions of euros
150
100
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
The Federal Reserve also came under some criticism for failing to act as
a “lender of last resort” during a wave of bank failures in the early 1930s.
During the early 1930s, overnight lending rates between solvent banks
remained low, indicating that there was no systemwide shortage 37 – a
conclusion shared by many at the time. Claims that the Federal Reserve
should have been more active as a “lender of last resort” amount to the
assertion that the Federal Reserve should have propped up failing banks, or
perhaps, that the Federal Reserve should have attempted to prop up the
economy as a whole with an expansionary policy. Use of the term “lender of
last resort” outside of its historical context and meaning, as a label for
“activist monetary policy,” amounts to semantic subterfuge. Any such action
would have led to an oversupply of currency and eventual failure of the
gold standard system.
162 Gold: The Final Standard
300
250
200
billions of euros
150
100
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Greece: M2, 2001-2016 38
Blame France
quantities were rather small – about 10.5 billion francs of foreign exchange
sold and bullion purchased, or about 12.4% of total assets of 85 billion
francs – and the operation was complete in early 1929.
140
gold
foreign exchange
120 advances to government
domestic bills
loans on securities
100
other assets
billions of francs
80
60
40
20
0
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
Further sales of foreign exchange for gold bullion were done after the
British devaluation of 1931, which made all too obvious the risks of holding
the debt of foreign governments on central bank balance sheets.
This adjustment of reserve assets had no monetary effects, and was
completely compatible with gold standard operating principles. The Bank of
France had always held large bullion reserves, against its banknote and
deposit liabilities. In 1907, the reserve ratio was 66%. 41 The United States
itself had bullion coverage ratios that varied from less than 20% to over
100%, in the years 1880-1970. The Bank of England, especially before
1845, had bullion reserve ratios that varied wildly from less than 10% to
over 60%. Nor did the Bank of France’s reserve asset rebalancing have any
effects on other central banks. 42 If at any time the Federal Reserve, Bank of
England, or any other central bank felt that it held too little or too much
bullion, they could have also adjusted their reserve asset mix just as the
Bank of France did, with no monetary effects.
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 165
160
notes in circulation
deposits
140
other liabilities
base money
120
billions of francs
100
80
60
40
20
0
1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937
Keynesian Interpretations
By the publication in 1992 of Golden Fetters: the Gold Standard and the
Great Depression, 1919-1939, by Barry Eichengreen, commitment to soft-
money activism had reached such a degree, among Anglophone academics,
that they could hardly imagine any alternative. Rather than a choice,
between a hard money stable value system represented by the gold
standard, in which one does not attempt to solve nonmonetary problems
with a monetary solution, and a soft-money floating fiat system in which
one does – or, perhaps, a once-a-century disaster that might warrant
making an exception to monetary principles, as seemed to be Keynes’ view
later in life – they saw only madness and sanity. This is not a choice at all,
but simply, in their view, a mistake. Eichengreen’s book remains influential,
and describes common sentiment among many academics to the present
day.
Typical of Keynesian narratives – and also, mainstream narratives
before mainstream thought itself became predominantly “Keynesian” after
1936 – the onset of the Great Depression was conceived of as being
166 Gold: The Final Standard
The search was apparently not successful. Besides the fact that there
was no real “tightening” in Federal Reserve policy in 1928-29 – reductions
in total credit were offset by gold inflows – the notion of an “autonomous
decline” amounts to “it just happened.” The emphasis on “confidence”
following the stock market declines in 1929 mirrored Keynes’ “animal
spirits,” the notion that Great Depression-type events can come about
basically because people get the heebie-jeebies. 45
Prior to the publication in 1963 of Friedman and Schwartz’s Monetary
History, the conventional view was that the onset of the Great Depression
was essentially nonmonetary in nature. Central banks could do little,
because the problems lay outside their realm. This view remained popular
afterwards as well. “For at least a quarter-century after the Depression’s
nadir, the prevailing interpretation concluded that monetary factors,
specifically the actions of the Federal Reserve, were quite simply unable to
stem the decline,” concluded Frank Steindl, in a review of the intellectual
landscape. 46 Anna Schwartz, Friedman’s collaborator, explained: “In the
’30s, ‘40s, and ‘50s, the prevailing explanation of 1929-1933 was essentially
modeled on Keynesian income-expenditure lines. A collapse in investment
as a result of earlier overinvestment, the stock market crash, and the
subsequent revision of expectations induced through the multiplier process
a steep decline in output and employment. ... Try as the Federal Reserve
System might, its easy money policies ... did not stabilize the economy.” 47
In Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? (1976), Peter Temin
described the common thinking of that time:
The “gold exchange standard” systems of the 1920s have come under
criticism in some circles, once again identified as a monetary cause of the
Great Depression. This view is represented in the writing of Jacques Rueff,
who, as the London-based manager in charge of the Bank of France’s
foreign reserves of British pounds in the 1920s, had an intimate view of the
issue. 51 He later became deputy governor of the Bank of France.
Despite his privileged vantage point, Rueff’s views were rather
confused. A “gold exchange standard” is functionally much like a modern
currency board, which causes no particular problems today. Rueff claimed
that a flaw in the “gold exchange standard” led to dramatic and inflationary
monetary expansion in both the reserve currency and the subsidiary
currency, which then led to bust in a manner reminiscent of Rothbard’s
arguments. A currency board, or “gold exchange standard,” does no such
thing. Despite serving as the primary reserve currency for “gold exchange
standards” worldwide, the Bank of England did not have even modest
growth in base money in 1925-1930, nor any decline in currency value
indicating an excess of base money supply. As for France, Rueff was
probably witnessing, and reacting to, the consequences of the French
franc’s wartime devaluation and return to gold at roughly one-fifth of its
prewar gold parity in 1926. Nominal prices in France would rise in
168 Gold: The Final Standard
[Gold] no longer passes from hand to hand, and the touch of the
metal has been taken away from men’s greedy palms. The little
household gods, who dwelt in purses and stockings and tin boxes,
have been swallowed by a single golden image in each country, which
lives underground and is not seen. Gold is out of sight—gone back
again into the soil. But when gods are no longer seen in a yellow
panoply walking the earth, we begin to rationalize them; and it is not
long before there is nothing left. 52
A closer look shows that there was actually not very much difference
between the arrangements of the late 1920s, and the arrangements of
1900-1914. Outside of the four major currencies (U.S., U.K., France and
Germany), the average holding of foreign currency reserves by other central
banks in Europe in 1913 was 24.6% of “international reserves” consisting
of gold bullion and foreign currency. In the Americas, Africa, Asia and
Australia, it was 38.8%. By 1929, these ratios had risen, but the difference
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 169
£600
millions of pounds
£500
£400
£300
£200
£100
£0
1930 1931 1932
£800
Currency in circulation
£700 total deposits
base money
£600
millions of pounds
£500
£400
£300
£200
£100
£0
1930 1931 1932
The notion that gold itself underwent some radical change in value, a
rise so abrupt and so gigantic in magnitude that it blew up the world
economy, has actually been rather rare. None of the theories previously
mentioned include it in any meaningful form. No evidence of any such rise
in value appears in the history of gold over the prior 500 years. The only
arguably similar episode was during the 1880s and 1890s, which can be
perhaps better explained as a glut of commodity supply. In any case, the
1880s and 1890s were also a time of great economic expansion.
The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 173
40000 60%
35000
50%
30000
40%
25000
metric tons
20000 30%
15000
20%
10000
Central bank reserves
% aboveground gold 10%
5000
0 0%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
One such argument was that central banks reduced their gold reserve
holdings dramatically during the floating-currency period of World War I,
and increased them dramatically afterwards, as part of their return to gold
convertibility in the 1920s. 62 This story was true for France, but not for
central banks as a whole. Ex-U.S. central bank bullion holdings increased by
31% between 1913 and 1920. Including the U.S., they increased by 47%. 63
However, the basic idea dates at least as far back as the debates of the
1890s. The dramatic rise in central bank gold reserves after 1850 suggested
a rise in gold’s value, which would create a similar rise in value for all
currencies linked to gold, with the associated monetary effects.
The economist Gustav Cassel, in particular, focused on the potential
problems arising from aggressive central bank bullion accumulation. He
was influential at a 1922 meeting of central bankers in Genoa, where it was
loosely agreed that countries returning to a gold standard after wartime
currency floating would not pursue aggressive bullion reserve policies, but
174 Gold: The Final Standard
800
Total non-major
700 Britain
France
600 U.S.
millions of ounces of gold
500
400
300
200
100
0
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
In the end, the only question we need to answer is: Did gold fail to serve
its role as the Monetary Polaris, a stable standard of value? This claim can
now be dismissed; and with it, all related claims that the gold-based
monetary systems of the time were a primary cause of the Great
Depression.
This conclusion should not be controversial. The Keynesian view, and
the dominant view until the 1960s, was that there was no monetary
problem, and little that central banks could do while remaining with the
gold standard system. The Austrian and Monetarist views both tended to
ignore the gold standard system altogether; both assume – erroneously –
that central banks were already operating a highly discretionary floating
fiat currency. Those that blame the “gold exchange standard” mostly blame
it for the failure of gold standard systems in 1931. Those devaluations did
indeed introduce a new element of turmoil, but “gold exchange standards”
were not the primary cause of them.
By the end of the 1930s, academia had turned into a hothouse of soft-
money enthusiasm. Governments and businessmen, however, were not
convinced. Currency devaluations often brought some relief, but also a
basket of nasty consequences. It had been no lasting solution – the Great
Depression dragged on through the decade, and unemployment remained
high. By the Tripartite Agreement of 1936, governments were moving back
toward a system of stable exchange rates. In 1944, they gathered together,
this time at a hotel in New Hampshire, to once again recreate the world gold
standard system.
Chapter 7:
The Bretton Woods Period, 1944-1971
The United States and Britain invaded German-held France at
Normandy on June 6, 1944. This created a two-front war for Germany,
which was already in rapid retreat on its Eastern front. The end of the war
was in sight; and with it, a return to normalcy in commerce and finance. In
July 1944, forty-four Allied governments assembled at the Mount
Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to rebuild a world
monetary system based on gold.
The result was enormously successful. Worldwide economic growth
and prosperity during the two decades that followed, the 1950s and 1960s,
were the best of any time from 1914 to the present day. Technological
wonders flowed forth: antibiotics, vaccines, synthetic fabrics, plastics,
nuclear power, commercial jet aviation, transistors, superhighways,
skyscrapers, and a “green revolution” in agriculture that resulted in a
threefold increase in per-acre yields. The propeller planes of 1945 led to a
small satellite, Sputnik 1, in orbit around the Earth in 1957. Only twelve
years later, in 1969, a man walked upon the moon. Incomes soared: U.S. per
capita GDP was $1,611 in 1946, and $5,246 in 1970 – all measured in a
currency of unchanging value at $35/oz. of gold. The 1970 figure
represented 150 ounces of gold. It was the highest this measure ever
reached. (U.S. per capita GDP in 2015 was equivalent to 48 ounces of gold.)
Germany and Japan, reduced to rubble after the war, did even better than
the United States.
The governments that gathered at Bretton Woods understood that
something had gone terribly wrong in the 1930s. To prevent the kind of
disorganized collapse of the international monetary system that began in
September 1931, they established an International Monetary Fund. Its
purpose was to defend the new gold standard system. Changes in gold
standard parity values would have to get permission from the Fund; the
Fund, in turn, would use its resources prevent any unplanned breakdowns.
A World Bank would extend credit to governments in financing difficulties,
thus preventing the kind of sovereign defaults that blackened 1931 and
1932. An International Trade Organization would prevent another
cascading tariff war. The ITO was not constituted, and instead became the
weaker General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Capitalism may indeed be
unstable, but a downturn would not cause a structural failure of sovereign
178 Gold: The Final Standard
This plan is the exact opposite of [the gold standard]. ... For
instead of maintaining the principle that the internal value of a
national currency should conform to a prescribed de jure external
value, it provides that its external value should be altered if necessary
to as to conform to whatever de facto internal value results from
domestic policies, which themselves shall be immune from criticism by
the [International Monetary] Fund. 3
government in the 1990s, confirmed that White had indeed been a Soviet
agent. 4
Economist Frank Graham was also well aware of the Bretton Woods
arrangement’s inherent contradictions. He said in 1949:
It would seem that, after all this, we might have learned that we
cannot both have our cake and eat it. We should know that we must
either forgo fixed exchange rates or national sovereignty [independent
domestic monetary policy] if we are to avoid the disruption of
equilibrium in freely conducted international trade or the system of
controls and inhibitions which is the only alternative when the internal
values of independent currencies deviate ... There is ... not even the
slightest provision for the adoption, by the various participating
countries, of the congruent monetary policies without which a system
of fixed exchange rates simply does not make sense. 5
Graham added:
60
50
40
gold oz.
30
20
10
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
the war. In 1947, the Federal Reserve raised its peg on the Treasury bill
rate, but reluctantly continued to restrain yields. Disagreements between
the Treasury and the Federal Reserve continued until, in March 1951, an
accord was reached with the Treasury that eliminated the ceilings on bond
yields. This allowed the Federal Reserve to address the problem of sagging
dollar value, which began to recover soon after. The value of the dollar
returned to its $35/oz. parity in November 1953.
although with one side of the trade on the current account, and one side on
the financial account.
A “balance of payments” can be described between any two parties, or
any two regions, using the same currency. It is not a monetary
phenomenon. There is no “Britain” that is trading with “France.” These are
simply statistical aggregates of millions of individual economic entities –
individuals, corporations, government entities – who have been identified
(often somewhat arbitrarily) as “British” or “French.” The only trade that
actually exists is between individual economic entities. Just as individual
entities in the same country can trade with each other without creating
“imbalances,” so can individual entities that happen to reside in different
countries.
Nevertheless, for a very long time – at least as far back as the
Mercantilist writers of the seventeenth century, although one could reach
even to Rome – governments have been intensely concerned about the
“trade balance.” This often has a foundation in real issues. Government
fiscal profligacy, or the expenses of war, can easily be reflected in trade
statistics. A low savings rate, and a pattern of excessive household
indebtedness, can lead, on the aggregate level, to borrowing money from
and selling assets to foreigners. Before 1800, vagaries in the bimetallic
coinage systems commonly in use could lead to a disappearance (via trade)
of either gold or silver coinage, and resulting difficulties. Increased
international trade can lead to new competitive pressures against
established domestic industries, and what amounts indirectly to a new
supply of cheap labor to compete with domestic labor. These are all genuine
issues of concern, but they don’t have anything to do directly with the
“balance of payments,” which is simply their statistical shadow, or the
currency, which is simply the medium of exchange.
Over the centuries, so much concern has been directed at the “balance
of payments” that it has served as an all-purpose political justification for
anything and everything. Foreign competition must be blocked because of
the “balance of payments.” Government deficits must be resolved because
of the “balance of payments.” Currencies must be devalued because of the
“balance of payments.” Policymakers typically cannot make much sense of
this rhetoric. People say these things ... because people have always said
these things. They do not actually understand what the “balance of
payments” technically refers to, or what it represents. Unfortunately, most
economists do not either, and don’t particularly want to. Many of them are
employed, directly or indirectly, to provide rhetorical support for one
interest group or another. The “balance of payments” has been one of their
best tools for decades. And so it goes, up to the present day.
In the 1950s and 1960s, economic thought had turned away from the
Classical conception of the nineteenth century, and, in so many ways, back
toward the Mercantilist habits of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.
Depression and World War had reintroduced big-government statism, and
The Bretton Woods Period, 1944-1971 185
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
-0.20%
-0.40%
-0.60%
-0.80%
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
U.S.: Current Account Balance as a Percentage of GDP, 1950-1970
120
100
80 monetary base
gold reserves at $35/oz.
$ billions
60
40
20
0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
been falling since the end of World War II due to rising GDP, and in 1970
reached 35%. Interest rates were indeed rising in the late 1960s, which was
broadly interpreted as the precursor of a looming debt crisis. Given the
minor deficit and low overall debt levels of the time, the rise was almost
certainly due to growing concern that the U.S. dollar would be devalued.
Although the Federal Reserve was not involved in direct deficit financing at
the time, these concerns led to pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue
to expand the monetary base at an aggressive pace by purchasing Treasury
bonds.
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
-1.00%
-2.00%
-3.00%
-4.00%
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
12%
10%
10yr Treasury bond yield
8% Federal funds rate
6%
4%
2%
0%
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
U.S.: Yield on 10yr Treasury Bond and Fed Funds Rate, 1942-1973
While the basic principles of the gold standard were eroding badly
among even the monetary specialists, they were floating outside the
thoughts of nonspecialists altogether. It had been illegal for citizens to own
gold coinage in the U.S. since 1933. But even before then, during the 1910s
The Bretton Woods Period, 1944-1971 191
Within this most recent expression of the world gold standard system,
the culmination of five thousand continuous years of gold and silver-based
money in the Western world – even as gold remained the basis of the
world’s major currencies, the official policy of governments, central banks
and the IMF – gold standard advocates themselves had become outcasts.
Two of the twentieth century’s leading economists in the Classical tradition,
Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, could not find a regular paying job
in academia. Both were supported, during their U.S. careers, by private
patrons. The president of the University of Chicago, Robert Hutchings,
asked the economics department to give Hayek a position; they refused.
Hayek later found more appreciation in Europe. He accepted a
professorship in Germany in 1962. In 1974, the Swedes gave him a Nobel
Prize. Von Mises’ position at New York University was funded by a private
businessman, Lawrence Fertig. Despite Fertig’s seat on NYU’s Board of
Trustees, Mises remained an unsalaried “visiting professor” for his twenty-
four years at the institution.
Murray Rothbard described the situation in his 1962 book The Case for
a 100% Gold Dollar:
Despite all of the self-inflicted difficulties, the broader picture was that
currencies’ values were reasonably well linked to gold. Even the dollar’s
slide to a momentary nadir of $40/oz. in 1960, though a gross deviation
from the $35/oz. peg, was not terribly important in the broader context.
Money was tolerably stable in value. Exchange rates mostly remained fixed,
which meant that other currencies tied to the dollar were also tied to gold.
Before 1971, the consequences of the inherent contradictions of Bretton
Woods were felt mostly in the form of capital and trade controls, and the
rising interest rates representing the fear of the system’s eventual rupture.
To the continuing frustration of the Keynesian and Monetarist money
The Bretton Woods Period, 1944-1971 195
marks did not seem like it achieved anything at all. The dissolution of the
London Gold Pool, and the effective end of gold conversion, allowed the
London gold price to reflect the true value of the dollar at the time.
250
200
150
100
50
0
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973 U.S.: CRB Commodity Index, 1947-1973
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
Intellectual Failure
Allan Sproul, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
described the problem in 1949:
Yet, the striking thing is how poorly this was understood at the time,
and how this misunderstanding also continues to the present. All of the talk
of “balance of payments imbalances,” liquidity, reserves, bullion flows,
relative prices, budget deficits, “fundamental disequilibrium” and so forth,
which consumed the attention of economists throughout the 1950s and
1960s, amounted to evidence of just how little economists comprehended
of what was happening around them. They couldn’t fix the problem,
because they couldn’t perceive the problem. 31
This confusion continued into the 1990s: Britain – still at it – dropped
out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (a kind of continental
Bretton Woods) in 1992, as its domestic monetary policy once again came
into conflict with the fixed-rate regime. 32 In 1997-1998, a large number of
countries with “pegged” Currency Option Three systems experienced
widespread failure. (Currency Option One currency boards in Hong Kong
and Argentina, however, were fine.) Another group of mostly Eastern
European countries, with Currency Option Three euro-pegged currencies,
had similar failures in 2008-2009, while the euro-linked currency board
systems remained unruffled. After four decades, the lessons of Bretton
100
10
Gold oz. per $1000
0.1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Interest rates around the world soared to levels not seen in the
previous two hundred years. Prices for commodities – especially oil –
quickly adjusted upward to reflect declining currency value. Prices for all
other things also adjusted upwards, at a slower pace. “Inflation” raged.
Economists were confused. They blamed anything and everything for the
“inflation” – everything, that is, except the most obvious thing, a decline in
currency value. The “inflation” was due to pushing costs and pulling wages,
naughty Arabs, a world that was “running out of everything,” budget
deficits, or any other fig leaf that could be used to cover up the fact that a
major mistake had been made.
With all currencies essentially sucked into the wake of the declining
dollar, the responsibility for halting this disaster also fell upon the United
States. This took the form of Paul Volcker’s leadership of the Federal
Reserve, which began in August of 1979. But it was more than one man. The
political consensus had finally shifted. “Easy money” was no longer seen as
the solution to all the economic problems of the day. It was seen as the
cause.
204 Gold: The Final Standard
16%
14%
Britain
12%
United States
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1730
1740
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
The process was rough – far rougher than it needed to be. The first
result of Volcker’s initial fumbling was a sickening collapse in the dollar’s
value. But, it turned out to be the last such breakdown, as Volcker found his
footing. Years of trauma followed, as the dollar’s value careened up and
down. In the past, the reinstatement of a gold standard system, after a
period of floating and devaluation, had typically been the start of a great
economic boom. This was the case in the U.S. in 1880, France in 1926, and
Japan and Germany in 1950. Despite the early difficulties, in time the value
of the dollar stabilized in a rough band – a very rough band – around
$350/oz. of gold, between 1982 and 2005. When it moved toward the edges
of this band, beyond $425/oz. or $300/oz., problems erupted and efforts
were made to bring the dollar back toward the $350/oz. level. The 1985
Plaza Accord, formed when the dollar was at $300/oz. was to deal with a
strong dollar; the 1987 Louvre Accord, formed at $400/oz. was to deal with
The Floating Currency Era, 1971- 205
a weak one. The whole world was helping stabilize the dollar around
$350/zo.
Volcker was succeeded by Alan Greenspan at the Federal Reserve in
August 1987. Greenspan had been among the few remaining gold standard
advocates in the 1960s, part of a circle of libertarians associated with the
writer Ayn Rand. In 1966, he penned a memorable essay called “Gold and
Economic Freedom.” In 1981 – already a member of the elite establishment
following a term (1974-1977) as the head of president Gerald Ford’s
Council of Economic Advisors – he offered an op-ed for the Wall Street
Journal calling for a return to the gold standard. While Volcker was
appointed during the Carter administration, Greenspan was appointed
under president Ronald Reagan, himself a gold standard admirer. For the
1980 election campaign, Reagan recorded a television advertisement
outlining his support for a new gold standard system. 2 The ad never ran,
however, after it was opposed by Reagan’s Monetarist advisors.
After Greenspan’s retirement in 2006, he again made numerous
comments in praise of the gold standard system. He said in 2016: “Now if
we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure
of the gold standard as it exists let’s say, prior to 1913, we’d be fine.
Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive
periods economically that we’ve had in the United States, and that was a
golden period of the gold standard.” 3 Perhaps it is no surprise that, during
Greenspan’s tenure, the dollar became even more stable vs. gold than it had
been under Volcker.
The Volcker/Greenspan era, 1982-2005, is often called the “Great
Moderation” by economists today, typically with little understanding of
what had made it possible. As the value of the dollar was stabilized – in
practical terms, stabilized against gold, even if the majority of economists
wished to ignore that fact – interest rates again came down and economies
prospered. The degree of prosperity was still far short of what had been
achieved during the gold standard years, even the problematic Bretton
Woods years. Yet, it was far better than the 1970s, and better than the
period of stagnation and ever-increasing government control of markets
and economies that followed Greenspan’s departure. By intent or by
accident, it amounted to a dirty gold standard. Greenspan explained in
2017:
Problems began in 1997 as the dollar rose out of its crude trading band,
reaching near $250/oz. in 2000. Currency crises erupted worldwide. The
too-strong dollar was corrected, but at the end of 2005, the dollar fell out of
its “Great Moderation” range on the other side, its value descending below
1/500th of an ounce of gold and continuing to nearly 1/2000th of an ounce
in 2011. Benjamin Bernanke, who replaced Greenspan at the beginning of
2006, was a lifelong academic Keynesian – or Monetarist; by this time, the
two camps had meshed into an undifferentiated stew of soft-money
rationalization. A He was followed, in 2014, by another soft-money
academic, Janet Yellen. The “Great Moderation” was over, and a strange new
era ensued, characterized by soaring and then crashing commodity prices,
asset bubbles in housing, bonds, and finally, by 2015, seemingly everything.
Central bank target interest rates fell to near-zero after 2008, and remained
there for years. Aggressive “quantitative easing” programs, involving
monetary expansion by trillions of dollars’ worth worldwide, became
commonplace. Yields on sovereign debt fell to historic lows, and then even
went negative for a sustained period, something that had never been seen
in the past 500 years of capitalism. It was possible only with unprecedented
coordination and control of asset markets.
A“In one sense, we’re all Keynesians now,” Milton Friedman told Time magazine in
1965. “In another, nobody is any longer a Keynesian.” This was an advanced notion
at the time, but accurately described the situation in 2015.
The Floating Currency Era, 1971- 207
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
shared the Australian dollar; two used the Indian rupee; five used the New
Zealand dollar; and four used the South African rand.
Unfortunately, the majority of those 120+ countries that have some sort
of fixed-value arrangement, have a Currency Option Three system
(sometimes called a “pegged” arrangement), often without even the
stabilizing element of substantial capital controls. The result has been an
endless series of currency breakdowns, even by well-meaning governments
with no wish to engage in devaluation or domestic monetary management.
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
The small states of Europe, tightly linked in trade and finance over the
centuries, had always used a shared currency standard – the gold standard
– even to the point (among the members of the Latin Monetary Union) of
issuing identical coinage. In 1972 – perhaps foreseeing the upcoming
dissolution of the Smithsonian Agreement in 1973 – most governments of
the European Economic Community agreed to tie their currencies together,
and prevent exchange rate fluctuations of more than 2.25%. This was
known as the “snake.” There was no central standard of value, although the
deutschemark soon became the effective center of the system. The
arrangement was troubled by chronic deviations and revaluations, as
governments and central banks still did not have effective Currency Option
One operating mechanisms to facilitate their goals. In March 1979, a formal
standard of value was established with the European Currency Unit, in
effect a supranational fiat currency standard similar to Keynes’ bancor in
1944 and the IMF’s SDR in 1968. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism
210 Gold: The Final Standard
still suffered from chronic instability due to the lack of proper operating
mechanisms. A crisis in 1992, in which Britain left the arrangement, further
exposed the system’s weakness. A more integrated system was agreed upon
with the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, which led to the adoption of a shared
currency, the euro, in 1999.
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
China: Value of 1000 Renminbi in U.S. Dollars, 1957-2016
$100,000
$10,000
$1,000
$100
$10
$1
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mexico: Value of 100 pesos in U.S. dollars, 1950-2014
logarithmic scale
increase in the official consumer price index by more than 100% over three
years. This is an annualized rate of 27%, or about 2% per month, which is
far milder than the extreme hyperinflations that tend to attract attention.
Nevertheless, a situation in which the official CPI is rising at 27% per year
or more, for three years or more, is one in which normal monetary and
market systems tend to break down. Lending becomes impossible, except
for very short maturities and typically small volumes. Basic accounting, of
costs or depreciation, turns into a guessing game. Pensions and savings are
destroyed, along with all other long-term contracts and commitments. At
least seventy-three countries had a hyperinflation episode during 1970-
2013, according to this definition. B
$1,000,000,000
$100,000,000
$10,000,000
$1,000,000
$100,000
$10,000
$1,000
$100
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
This count does not include milder, but still quite destructive trends
toward currency depreciation common throughout the globe. Between
1980 and 2000, the value of the Greek drachma fell by 5:1 vs. the dollar; the
Indian rupee by 6:1; the South African rand by 9:1; and the Portuguese
escudo by 4:1. Some currencies had the opposite problem: the Japanese yen
was 260/dollar in 1985, and touched 80/dollar in 1995, more than a
threefold increase in relative value. The German mark was 3.30/dollar in
1985, and 1.40/dollar in 1995. All attempts at international trade and
finance were thrown into mayhem by these moves – a long way indeed
from the prior era of “globalization” before 1914, when gold-based
BThis does not count numerous states that had such turmoil – including
Afghanistan, Vietnam and Cambodia – that the IMF has no statistics at all.
The Floating Currency Era, 1971- 213
currencies had fixed exchange rates. After the trade wars of the 1930s,
governments embraced the principle of “free trade;” but “free trade”
became nonsensical under such conditions, and endless conflicts broke out.
The “Great Moderation” period was still troubled by debilitating currency
turmoil, in both the developed and developing economies.
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Germany: Value of 100 marks in U.S. dollars, 1945-2015
The currency turmoil led to chronic financial crises. The high short-
term rates of the 1970s and early 1980s demolished the U.S. savings and
loan industry. Large U.S. commercial banks, not restricted to domestic
residential lending, financed a surge of investment in developing
economies, especially focused on commodity production. These went bust
in the 1980s, causing industry-wide insolvency particularly among lenders
to Latin American countries then collapsing in hyperinflation. Chastened by
their Latin American losses, they pursued opportunities in Asia, which in
turn went bust in 1997-98. The Asian Crisis caused attention to focus on
seemingly-safe U.S. equities in general, and technology-media-telecom
sectors in particular, driving valuation metrics to levels never before seen.
Residential real estate was the next area of focus, which again had a history
of seeming stability. The combination of declining currency values (vs. gold)
and low interest rates also made houses a hard-asset inflation play, as had
been so successful in the 1970s. This too turned to bust in 2007-2008, and
again caused a wave of financial system insolvency. In 2012-2016, bond
yields worldwide were pushed to levels never before seen; indeed, to levels
that people once said were theoretically impossible.
214 Gold: The Final Standard
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
The floating fiat regime had led to disaster and chaos over most of the
globe. The IMF and World Bank, originally intended to keep currencies
stable among the developed countries, found a new role as the engine of
soft re-colonization as they saddled one government after another with
debt and then commandeered economic policy – often, via deregulation and
mass privatization, in favor of multinational corporations.
160
140
120
100
gold oz.
80
60
40
20
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
society declines. In the extreme example, all people spend all day building
excess houses. Employment soars, along with official GDP; but the real
productivity of the economy collapses. They soon die of starvation, in a
landscape littered with empty buildings.
140
120
100
80
gold oz.
60
40
20
0
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
U.S.: Hourly Wages of Production Workers,
Adjusted by CPI, 1880-2015 7
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
-1.00%
-2.00%
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
U.S.: Annualized Growth Rate of Wages of Production Workers,
Adjusted by CPI, Prior Ten-Year Period, 1880-2015
technology, evidence for this abounds: the lifestyle that could be supported
by a single working parent, with a high school education – a house, a car or
two, adequate healthcare, a college education for the children, and a 15%
savings rate – often seemed unattainable in 2016, even for two working
parents.
120
100
80
gold oz.
60
40
20
0
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
U.S.: Wages of Production Workers, 1000 Hours, in Gold Oz. 1880-2015
In the United States, per capita GDP as measured in ounces of gold – the
standard measure of value used in the United States for nearly two
centuries before 1971 – was, in 2015, at a level comparable to the early
1950s. Hourly wages of production workers, adjusted by the official
consumer price index, showed an extended stagnation after 1971
unprecedented in U.S. history. This is bad enough; but the official consumer
price index itself was constantly modified since 1980, with each
modification making it look better than it would have otherwise. When
using a consumer price index calculated in the same fashion that it was
done in 1980, the outcome is similar to the story told by gold – a decline in
the real value of wages to levels of the 1950s, or even below that. 8
Much of the developed world showed a similar pattern. Except for a few
outliers, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, the experience of the rest of the
developed world was not clearly superior to the United States after 1971.
World per capita GDP, in terms of gold, tells a story much like that for the
U.S. A few emerging markets had great success after 1970, notably in Asia:
China, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and, to a lesser degree,
India. They were characterized by very high rates of savings and
investment, relatively low tax rates, and a low tax revenue/GDP ratio. Their
monetary policies focused on maintaining a fixed exchange rate with the
U.S. dollar, largely abandoning any ambition to manage the domestic
economy by monetary means. The most successful Asian countries did not
get rich by being better money-fiddlers than the United States. They got rich
220 Gold: The Final Standard
25
20
15
gold oz.
10
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
With the exception of Hong Kong’s currency board, however, the Asian
countries did not have a coherent operating mechanism to achieve this goal,
and instead used a grab-bag of vaguely Keynesian monetary tools –
Currency Option Three. The result was periodic failure of currency pegs, in
China in 1980-1994, followed by widespread failure across dollar-pegged
currencies in Asia in 1997-1998.
100% Total
Non-Hispanic white
Non-Hispanic black
80% Hispanic
Percentage of All Births
60%
40%
20%
0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
The Golden Rule – “Do unto others as you would have them do unto
you” – is rendered, in terms of a long-term debt, pension or wage contract,
as: pay me in a currency whose value is the same as when we formed the
agreement. In the U.S. before 1933, this commonly took the form of a “gold
clause” in commercial contracts. In the environment of floating currencies,
no such assurances could be made. “You get what you get” was the principle
of the age, expressed in every daily interaction, and anyone who aspired to
a higher ideal was seen as hopelessly naive. No longer did people feel
constrained by moral principles codified in legal contract. “Do as thou wilt”
becomes the subtle principle of all business. In politics, in divorce court,
during a weekend in Las Vegas, it becomes the principle of all life.
In such an environment, capitalism loses its moral foundation. Personal
reward does not lead to collective prosperity. In The Foundations of
Morality (1964), the libertarian economist Henry Hazlitt wrote:
Nothing places the farmer, the wage-earner, and all those not
closely connected with financial affairs at so great a disadvantage in
disposing of their labor or products as changeable "money." ... You all
know that fish will not rise to the fly in calm weather. It is when the
wind blows and the surface is ruffled that the poor victim mistakes the
lure for a genuine fly. So it is with the business affairs of the world. In
stormy times, when prices are going up and down, when the value of
the article used as money is dancing about–up to-day and down to-
morrow–and the waters are troubled, the clever speculator catches
the fish and fills his basket with the victims. Hence the farmer and the
The Floating Currency Era, 1971- 223
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Why did the political balance change, right around 1971 with the
emergence of floating fiat currencies? Why did the budget discipline that
had been common throughout the Western world for two centuries,
suddenly evaporate at that time? At some level, perhaps people understood
that the money didn’t have to be paid back in a currency of unchanging
value. The debt would, in essence, be inflated away. Almost immediately
people sensed the change in mood, described in detail by James Buchanan
and Richard Wagner in Democracy In Deficit (1977).
The core flaw in floating fiat currencies, Currency Option Two, may be
that it encourages expediency, short-termism, and self-interest in all
aspects of life, from marriage, family, employment, and business, up to
Congress, the Presidency, and the Federal Reserve itself – a deterioration of
what, in the nineteenth century, would have been called “public morality.”
The purpose of a floating fiat currency is to attempt to use monetary
distortion as a tool to solve nonmonetary problems. Since monetary
226 Gold: The Final Standard
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
U.S.: Wages of Financial Sector, Percent of All Corporate Wages,
1948-2014
In 2016, the issue of public debt was already being resolved by the
printing press. “Quantitative easing” had been variously implemented by
the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of
Japan since the aftermath of a financial crisis in 2008. Initially, this offset a
dramatic rise in demand for central bank reserves among commercial
banks, but by 2012 it took on a flavor of government debt management. By
2016, assets of major central banks had increased to $17.2 trillion, from
$6.5 trillion at the beginning of 2008. In 2016, the European Central Bank
continued to purchase government bonds via base money expansion –
what, in earlier times, would have been called the “printing press” – at a
rate of €960 billion per year, equivalent to about 9.1% of eurozone GDP.
The euro area’s aggregate gross government debt/GDP ratio was 90.7%,
but that manageable figure obscured continuing sovereign debt crises
among several members including Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
The Bank of Japan was purchasing ¥80 trillion of bonds per year in 2016,
equivalent to 15.0% of GDP. Japan’s gross government debt/GDP ratio was
229%.
The forty-plus years of floating fiat currencies since 1971 have been a
relatively brief period, compared to Britain’s 379 years under a largely
unchanged gold/silver standard from 1552 to 1931, 14 or the 722 years (312
– 1034) that the gold content of the Byzantine solidus remained unchanged.
The floating fiat era’s end may already be in sight. At least, the end of its
first iteration; over the past three and a half centuries, the Western
governments have tended to return to a gold standard system after the
failure of a fiat paper regime, but the Chinese experience of the eleventh
through fifteenth centuries showed that many more cycles of
reconstruction and collapse are possible.
228 Gold: The Final Standard
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
U.S.: Federal Debt to GDP, 1792-2015 15
The floating fiat era was accidental and unplanned, born of ignorance
and failure, wanted by no government. Despite the glee of certain
economists, who saw monetary manipulation as the solution to all
conceivable problems, the immediate result was a decade of worldwide
currency decline and economic stagnation. Recessions were not particularly
rare, or gentle. Unemployment was never very low. Financial crises and
rounds of systemic bank insolvency became, if anything, more common.
Curious asset bubbles began to pop up, in equities, housing, bonds, or art,
and observers blamed monetary causes. As one bubble collapsed,
governments and central banks seemed eager to replace it with another. At
no time did people look back on what they had created, and say, as people
said in 1910: it is good.
Times were best when currencies were most like the gold standard era.
Real economic progress was made in the 1980s and 1990s, the “Great
Moderation,” although the results did not come anywhere near the stellar
successes of the 1960s or the 1880s. The more unreliable and changeable
the money became – in 1971-1982, or 1998-2015 – the more disappointing
the economic results. Much the same was true for less-developed countries
as well. The most successful had a reliable currency, in practice achieved by
linking its value to a major international currency such as the dollar,
deutschemark or euro. When their currencies became unstable, economic
stagnation and decline was the common result.
Continuous currency chaos, and with it endless contention over trade,
polluted relations between the major developed countries. Incomes
stagnated across much of the developed world, as a parasitic financial
The Floating Currency Era, 1971- 229
The free market economy has, inherent within it, the assumption that
money is stable in value. This is the basis upon which its mechanisms work.
Through the processes of market prices, profit margins, interest rates, and
returns on capital, all of the activities of the market economy are organized.
When the nominal market price of corn rises, that is interpreted to
represent some change in the supply and demand characteristics of corn,
not a decline in the value of the money. The result of the price change might
be that some people curtail their corn consumption, and others increase
their corn production – a productive and beneficial response to real
changes in the supply and demand for corn, and a nonsensical or
destructive response if it is caused by changes in the money.
When building condos in Florida produces an ample profit margin and
a high return on capital, while making steel in Pennsylvania does not,
capital is directed at producing condos in Florida, while capital is
withdrawn from steelmaking in Pennsylvania. Condo construction
increases; steelmaking production declines. Jobs are created here and lost
there, people migrate, population expands in one city and declines in
another; all according to the informational signals produced by prices,
profit margins, and returns on capital. As described by George Gilder in The
Scandal of Money (2016), this process can function properly when money
itself is as “noiseless” as possible, so that the “signals” of the informational
market economy are least corrupted. When money becomes “noisy,” the
market signals are corrupted, and economic activity becomes chaotic,
wasteful, inefficient, and destructive. The failure of the free market system
to produce productive outcomes then leads to greater government
intervention and control of all economic processes. This intervention too
then leads to greater free market failure.
No economic problem can arise from money that is perfectly stable in
value. A rise in the value of money causes certain distortions; a fall also
causes distortions. The floating currency advocates believe that they can
use these distortions to their advantage. An economy can certainly have a
great many problems, even when its money is stable. But, these are not
monetary problems.
The various advantages claimed by soft-money doctrines come about,
in large part, because stability of value is inherent in the concept of money.
This is the “money illusion” – the tendency for people to treat money as
unchanging, when it is not. Even supposed sophisticates complain today
that gold is “too volatile,” assuming – in defiance of all evidence – that the
floating fiat currencies in which gold’s price is expressed are themselves
perfectly stable in value.
Nobody can claim that gold and silver – and finally, after the retirement
of silver in the 1870s, gold alone – were a perfect representative of this
ideal of “stable money,” as precise and unchanging as the length of the
meter. But we can confirm that gold has been close enough to this ideal that
whatever minor variance existed didn’t matter very much. A more perfect
232 Gold: The Final Standard
expression of stable monetary value has never been found. Mostly, people
didn’t feel the need to search for one.
Unfortunately, there is no perfect measure of value against which gold
can be compared, to gauge with certainty how much the value of gold has
deviated from that perfect ideal over the centuries. Commodity prices are
an imperfect measure, since commodity values themselves vary due to the
supply and demand for commodities. If gold were perfectly stable in value,
we would expect to see variation in commodity prices roughly equivalent to
what we do indeed see – year-to-year variance within a relatively small
range, and longer trends related to broad changes in supply and demand for
commodities. Changes in mining production seem to have had virtually no
effect on the value of gold, probably due to the large amount of
aboveground gold in relation to annual production. Even the tenfold
increase in mining production around 1850 seems to have had no
discernible effect. A tenfold increase in silver production, in the second half
of the sixteenth century, was accompanied by only a modest and slow
decline in the value of silver vs. gold.
If we could measure gold’s value against some perfect scientific
standard, what would it look like? Perhaps it would look something like
silver’s relationship to gold, in the centuries before 1870.
Any variation in the value of gold, large enough to have substantial
economic effects, should be apparent in commodity prices. The historical
record shows only two episodes of importance, outside of the disruption of
large-scale war – the decline of commodity prices in the 1880s and 1890s,
and the decline in the 1930s. The first can be explained primarily – perhaps,
entirely – as a result of increased commodity supply. If there was some rise
in the value of gold during that time, it did not interfere with the splendid
economic expansion of that period. The primary economic difficulties,
around 1890-1896, were related to the threats, via “free coinage of silver”
arguments, that the U.S. dollar, and other currencies worldwide, would be
devalued. The Classical Gold Standard era, 1870-1913, is not remembered
as a time of difficulty and distress, but as a belle époque, the most perfect
expression of the Stable Money ideal that humans have ever achieved.
The idea that the Great Depression “had something to do with the gold
standard” is pervasive today. Yet, the claim that gold somehow failed to
serve its role as a stable standard of value – the only meaningful criticism
that can be made – has not been common. To make that claim is to say that
gold somehow had an aberration of value unprecedented in half a
millennia; that this happened, for no obvious reason, in the middle of the
late-1920s prosperity; and that it was unrelated to any significant change in
supply/demand conditions for gold. Perhaps, given these difficulties, it is
no surprise that the most common (“Keynesian”) view of the Depression is
that it emerged from undefined nonmonetary causes, expressed as a
“decline in aggregate demand.” More monetary-themed views, from the
Austrian or Monetarist schools, nevertheless did not claim any change in
Conclusions 233
gold’s value. They mostly ignored the fact that the gold standard existed at
all. The relatively small group that claimed some sudden and gigantic rise in
gold’s value, a rise large and abrupt enough to blow up the world economy,
blamed an increase in central bank accumulation that demonstrably did not
exist. The decline in commodity prices during the 1930s was a
nonmonetary phenomenon related to the economic downturn, itself arising
from nonmonetary causes – a cascade of error involving virtually every
aspect of economic policy, except for the money. It was, after all, the Great
Depression.
The world gold standard was once again reassembled after World War
II; and once again, it helped produce prosperity and bounty everywhere.
But a fatal flaw had been introduced, at the beginning in 1944. The idea that
governments could conduct a discretionary “domestic” monetary policy,
while maintaining an “external” fixed exchange rate with gold or the U.S.
dollar, was inherently contradictory and caused endless problems. Most
economists still did not perceive this error even in 1971, instead blaming a
host of imaginary “imbalances” and “dilemmas” somehow related to the
“balance of payments.” It was, they insisted loudly, Not Their Fault. The
actual problem was solved by the comically effortless means of reducing the
rate of base money growth, which allowed Federal Reserve Chairman
William McChesney Martin to return the value of the U.S. dollar to its
$35/oz. gold parity in January 1970. But, it was the last month of his term.
It had taken a World War, a Great Depression, and then another World
War, to break up the world gold standard of the past. The Bretton Woods
system disintegrated in the midst of blue-sky prosperity and friendly
international cooperation, despite even the many safeguards put in place to
prevent such an event.
has been around since the invention of coinage introduced the initial
fracture between face value and metallic content. The only surprising thing
is how little the arguments have changed. The primary innovation of the
past century has been to sprinkle spurious math upon these age-old claims.
The math itself is not convincing; rather, it is confusing, which is convincing.
The Classical economists, who became dominant after 1780 following
the popularity of Adam Smith, instead focused on the importance of a stable
and unchanging monetary unit. This idea too is as old as coinage itself: the
first coinage debasement was certainly followed by the first complaint
about coinage debasement. Since the very first known coins of Lydia were
inherently debased, not containing the metallic content claimed by their
face value, these complaints also must have begun very early. Later, the
ideal of Stable Money was expressed in the Classical Gold Standard of the
latter part of the nineteenth century. The success of the Stable Money
paradigm – exemplified by Britain, the U.S., France and Germany – stood in
contrast to the difficulties of those countries that allowed their currencies
to deviate from that ideal. The devaluations and floating currencies of Italy,
Spain, Greece, Portugal or several Latin American countries, in 1850-1914,
caused nothing but problems. Not one of them, by way of some sort of
skillful manipulation of their floating currencies, rose to challenge the
British Empire, or the financial dominance of London.
Coinage was often debased, but it rarely floated. Coinage values
typically reflected their metal content. The introduction and spread of
paper money, a token currency, after 1650 created the possibility of a
currency that could float, up and down unpredictably, for long periods of
time. Before 1850, paper money experiments tended to either stay soundly
attached to a metallic basis, or quickly decline in a one-way road to oblivion.
After 1850, as paper currencies became more common worldwide along
with monopoly central banks, floating fiat currencies could remain viable
for some extended period of time, even if they still tended to depreciate.
The British pound’s floating fiat era during wartime, in 1797-1821, was an
early example of this principle.
The Classical ideal of a neutral and unchanging money, a universal
constant of commerce free of human intervention – practically expressed by
the gold standard system – experienced some erosion towards the end of
the nineteenth century. The idea of a “lender of last resort,” as it developed
around the middle of the century, introduced a new element of
discretionary management and apparent intervention by central banks. In
actual practice, the “lender of last resort” function was wholly compatible
with the gold standard system, and aimed to address short-term variance in
base money demand. There was no ambition to influence the broader
economy, or alter currency values. However, this was not very well
understood. The idea that central bankers could “resolve financial crises” or
“reduce interest rates” with discretionary money creation – the idea that
Conclusions 235
Over a century has now passed since the end of the Classical Gold
Standard in 1914. Only a few alive today even have an adult memory of the
flawed gold standard system of the Bretton Woods era.
Many people today would claim that recreating a world gold standard
system is “impossible.” By this, they mean: politically unlikely in the near
term. It is not very difficult at all to use gold as a standard of value, instead
236 Gold: The Final Standard
The outbreak of the current crisis and its spillover in the world
have confronted us with a long-existing but still unanswered question,
i.e., what kind of international reserve currency do we need to secure
global financial stability and facilitate world economic growth, which
was one of the purposes for establishing the IMF? There were various
institutional arrangements in an attempt to find a solution, including
the Silver Standard, the Gold Standard, the Gold Exchange Standard
and the Bretton Woods system. The above question, however, as the
ongoing financial crisis demonstrates, is far from being solved, and has
become even more severe due to the inherent weaknesses of the
current international monetary system.
Theoretically, an international reserve currency should first be
anchored to a stable benchmark and issued according to a clear set of
rules, therefore to ensure orderly supply; second, its supply should be
flexible enough to allow timely adjustment according to the changing
demand; third, such adjustments should be disconnected from
economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country. The
acceptance of credit-based national currencies as major international
reserve currencies, as is the case in the current system, is a rare
special case in history. The crisis again calls for creative reform of the
existing international monetary system towards an international
reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance
and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding
global economic and financial stability. 1
The Chinese seem to know exactly what they want, and, though they
don’t say the words outright, exactly how to get it.
Most governments in the world have already repudiated the idea of
domestic monetary manipulation, and have adopted a fixed-value policy by
joining a major currency bloc. Their attention then turns from domestic
affairs to international: the major currency blocs must themselves be
beneficially managed. The conclusion of this line of thought is a world gold
Conclusions 237
standard system similar to the single “currency bloc” of the Classical Gold
Standard and Bretton Woods era.
Even in the United States, although academic opinion remained heavily
skewed towards soft-money ideals, in 2016 five Republican presidential
contenders – Donald Trump, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Mike
Huckabee – indicated that they were friendly toward the idea of restoring
the dollar’s link to gold. One of them, Donald Trump, became president. In
2010, Mike Pence, then a Congressman from Indiana, said:
[The] most effective central banks in this fiat money period tend
to be successful largely because we tend to replicate which would
probably have occurred under a commodity standard in general. 4
But even his tenure was marred by numerous distortions, booms and
crashes that, to many, looked suspiciously like they had a monetary origin:
the Asian Crisis of 1997-1998, the tech bubble of 1999-2000, and the
housing bubble of 2002-2005, among others. As successful as he was, he
was also, by his own implicit judgment, not successful enough. In 2017 he
remained, as in his youth, an admirer of the pre-1914 Classical gold
standard era:
I view gold as the primary global currency. ... The gold standard
was operating at its peak in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a
period of extraordinary global prosperity, characterised by firming
productivity growth and very little inflation.
But today, there is a widespread view that the 19th century gold
standard didn’t work. ... It wasn’t the gold standard that failed; it was
politics. ...
[I]f the gold standard were in place today we would not have
reached the situation in which we now find ourselves. 5
Mervyn King was the governor of the Bank of England for a decade,
2003-2013. What did he learn from this experience? In The End of Alchemy:
Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy (2016), he said:
There are those who advocate even more monetary and fiscal
stimulus to trigger a recovery ... Further monetary stimulus, however,
is likely to achieve little more than taking us further down the dead-
end road of the paradox of policy. ...
Only a recognition of the severity of the disequilibrium into which
so many of the biggest economies of the world have fallen, and of the
nature of the alchemy of our system of money and banking, will
provide the courage to undertake bold reforms. 6
King did not share Greenspan’s Stable Money convictions. But even in
the citadels of soft-money rationalization, an uneasy recognition spread
that the entire contemporary system of monetary and financial
manipulation – the “alchemy” – was rotten and self-destructive. During
King’s tenure, researchers at the Bank of England found:
In Fed Up: An Insider’s Take On Why The Federal Reserve Is Bad For
America (2017), Danielle DiMartino Booth described ten contentious years
on the staff of the Federal Reserve. Finally disgusted with the process by
which the monetary alchemy is concocted, she concluded:
We must demand that the Fed stop offering excuse after excuse
for its failures. Short-term interest rates must return to some
semblance of normality and the Fed’s outrageously swollen balance
sheet must shrink in size. And most of all, the Fed must never follow
Europe by taking interest rates into negative territory.
No more excuses. The Fed’s mandate isn’t to have a perfect
world. That only exists in fairy tales, dreams, and the Fed’s
econometric models. 8
and the logic behind it. Today, the idea that money should be, or even could
be, based on something besides the variable whims of central bankers can
be a little unfamiliar.
We can no longer rely upon habit and custom. A new grasp of the
underlying principle of Stable Money is necessary. Only money that is stable
in value can prevent the distortion of prices, interest rates, profit margins
and returns on capital, and all the other myriad effects that follow from
money that either rises or falls in value. Gold is simply a tool to achieve this
result – the best tool that humans have ever found, and perhaps the only
tool humans ever needed.
When the principle of Stable Money is fully grasped, today’s floating fiat
currencies, and the activities of major central banks, are seen as abhorrent
and absurd.
Yet still we hesitate. We still carry a kind of emotional trauma, from all
of the monetary failures, and broader economic policy failures, of the past
century. This trauma should be examined and resolved.
Currency Option One Vs. Currency Option Three: Governments did not
want to abandon the Bretton Woods gold standard system in 1971. Rather,
it seemed that the gold standard had abandoned them. It became, to their
eyes, so obstreperous and difficult to manage, subject to so many
“fundamental disequilibriums” and “Triffin dilemmas,” that even the great
many capital controls and earnest international agreements laid upon it
could not keep it from disintegrating. Currencies, it seemed, wanted to float
freely, and nothing could keep them from doing so. Governments and
242 Gold: The Final Standard
It is not the right time: Despite all the brilliant arguments by David
Ricardo and others, returning Britain’s floating pound to its gold anchor
was “politically impossible” until after the wars with France ended in 1815.
Today, governments have spent the last four decades making promises with
the tacit assumption that it would all be eventually resolved by the printing
press. To return to a gold standard system today would mean that all those
obligations – existing government debt, state pensions (Social Security),
healthcare obligations, and the habit of persistent deficits – would have to
be either paid off in hard money, or completely renegotiated. This is
possible: the British government’s giant debts after the Napoleonic Wars,
estimated at possibly over 200% of GDP, were eventually paid off in a
currency of unchanging value. The U.S. Federal government’s debt of 119%
of GDP in 1946 shrank to 35% of GDP in 1970, entirely through an increase
in GDP, since the nominal amount of debt increased. These displays of
virtue and fortitude have been rare, however, and demonstrate one reason
why Britain dominated world affairs after 1815, and the U.S. after 1945.
The political balance at this time may favor a monetary resolution,
whether through a short-term event or a long period of erosion sometimes
called “financial repression.” This position would rarely be voiced in those
terms. Just as was the case in Britain prior to Waterloo, it would be
expressed as a continual stream of threadbare rationalizations why the
floating fiat system must continue, and why central banks, and their money-
creation mechanism, must be the final response to all concerns of statecraft.
Conclusions 243
If so, then so be it. Such a political consensus is likely to lead to its own
demise before too long, especially since its own demise is an inherent part
of its constitution. In the time that comes after, a time of broken promises
and broken currencies, a wholly different political consensus will form,
which will be: anything but that.
All gold standard systems have the same goal – to fix the value of the
currency to a defined quantity of gold. The institutional arrangements used
to attain this goal have always varied, over time and among different
governments. The world gold standard systems of the twenty-first century
would be different, in their details, from those of the nineteenth, and
certainly different from the flawed Bretton Woods arrangements.
Over time, the world economy’s demand for money has tended to grow
faster than available aboveground gold. It would not be possible today to
replace all base money (banknotes and central bank deposits) with gold
coins and bullion, a pure coinage or “100% reserve” system. It might be
difficult to return to the roughly 30% reserve ratios common to central
banks in the late nineteenth century. Certainly a small country could do so –
Malaysia, perhaps – but not the world as a whole. This is not a problem,
because it is necessary only to maintain the value of currencies at their gold
parities, not to warehouse giant amounts of bullion in vaults. Indeed, it
would arguably be better – that gold would more perfectly serve its role as
a stable standard of value – if most of the gold in the world was in private
hands, trading freely, rather than being locked up by central banks and
possibly subject to centralized decisions to buy and sell. Today, roughly
20% of the world’s aboveground gold is reportedly held by central banks, a
ratio that seems appropriate for the purpose, and also the same ratio as in
1910.
Some have suggested forms of a gold standard system which do not
require any bullion reserves at all, and in which base money is not
convertible to bullion at the currency issuer. A This is technically possible,
but politically weak: such systems are more prone to accidental or
intentional mismanagement. Traditionally, central banks have offered
unlimited bullion conversion. In practice, this was not a problem. However,
any central bank might justifiably feel nervous about making such a
commitment when gold reserves are perhaps 5%-10% of base money
liabilities. At the end of 2016, the United States had official gold holdings of
261 million oz., worth $313 billion at $1200/oz., against Federal Reserve
base money liabilities of $3,531 billion – a reserve ratio of 9.5%.
A A “gold price rule,” described in detail in Chapter 8 of Gold: The Monetary Polaris. A
monopoly central banks – even if, for the time being, Bitcoin itself is far too
volatile to serve as the basis of contracts or coherent pricing.
Another communist agent, Harry Dexter White, helped create the IMF, and
served as its first director.
An international gold standard system requires no such superstate, or
single global currency run by a world central bank. Any country that wished
to participate could do so, unilaterally. There need be no other policy
coordination on any other level. Currencies would not be under the control
of an unelected board of bureaucrats, at the national or international level,
but could be provided by a multi-issuer “free banking” model.
Throughout history, gold has been the money of liberty and
sovereignty, justice and morality, prosperity and cooperation. Fiat
currencies have been the money of absolutism and tyranny, favoritism and
expediency, parasitism and conflict. Governments have devalued, debased
and floated their currencies many times for many reasons, but never
because gold itself failed to serve its role as a reliable standard of value –
not in 1914, not in 1931, and not in 1971. If a crisis is in our future, wiping
away the present order, let the solution be one that benefits all of humanity,
not one that serves as a new mechanism of global enslavement. We know
what that solution is.
Would it work? It has always worked. It has always been the only thing
that worked.
Notes
Chapter 1:
1Edwin Walter Kemmerer, who established gold standard systems for
several countries between 1905 and 1930, explained in 1944:
Chapter 2:
1 Interview with National Public Radio, November 19, 2010.
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131430755/a-
chemist-explains-why-gold-beat-out-lithium-osmium-einsteinium
2 Mill (1848), III.7.6
3 The Silver Institute (2016).
4 The objects at Nahal Kana appear to have been an early form of "ring
money."
5 Powell (1996).
6 Crawford (2004), p. 159.
7 Postgate (1992), p. 203
8 Postgate (1992), p. 66
9 Postgate (1992), p. 202
10 Postgate (1992), p. 193
248 Gold: The Final Standard
11 Heichelheim (1958).
12 Mundell (2002).
13 Mundell (2002).
14 Postgate (1992), p. 193
15 Crawford (2013).
16 Powell (1996) and Postgate (1992).
17 Among the 282 laws:
113: If a man hold a [debt of] grain or money against a man, and if
he take grain without the consent of the owner from the heap or
the granary, they shall call that man to account for taking grain
without the consent of the owner from the heap or the granary, and
he shall return as much grain as he took, and he shall forfeit all that
he has lent, whatever it be.
114: If a man do not hold a [debt of] grain or money against a man,
and if he seize him for debt, for each seizure he shall pay one-third
mina of silver.
Chapter 3:
1 Warren and Pearson (1933), p. 316.
2 Drelichman and Voth (2011).
3 Green (2007), p. 245.
4 Kohn (1999).
5 Davies (1995), p. 180-181.
6 Yang (1952), p. 53.
7 Yang (1952), p. 57.
8 Yang (1952), p. 61.
9 Von Glahn (1996), p. 61-62.
10 Yang (1952), p. 64.
11 Von Glahn (1996), p. 71.
12 Yang (1952), p. 67.
13 Yang (1952), p.95.
14 For an exhaustive record of Indian gold coinage, see Friedberg and
Friedburg (2009).
15 Toda (1882).
16 Lochan (1988), pp. 222, 229-230.
17 Wicks (1992), p. 184.
18 Wicks (1992), p. 278.
19 for example: Hosler (1988), p. 832-855.
250 Gold: The Final Standard
Chapter 4:
1 Columbus was born in Genoa, Italy in 1451, and did not migrate to Spain
until 1485. Known as Cristóbal Colón in Spanish, his name in Latin was
Christophorus Columbus, and in Italian Cristoforo Colombo.
2 Green (2007), p. 285.
3 Von Glahn (1996), p. 113.
4 Von Glahn (1996) estimated that, between 1550 and 1645 roughly 7,200
metric tons of silver was imported into China. Surprisingly, Von Glahn
concluded that roughly half of this (3,700 tons) came from Japan, 2,300 tons
came from the Spanish mines via the Pacific, and 1,230 tons came from the
west via India and Europe. (p. 140) During the overlapping 1601-1700
period, Von Glahn estimated total imports of 4,704 tons, of which 3,596
tons came from Japan. (p. 232)
5 Quinn and Roberds (2012), p. 10.
6 Griffin (1994), p. 173.
7 Suprinyak (2011).
8 Mayhew (1999), p. 105.
9 See Selgin (2008).
10 Davies (1994), p. 253.
11 Shareholders’ equity is the sum of “capital” (initial capital) and “rest”
24 The First Bank was likely controlled by the Rothschild family. See Griffin
(1994), p. 331.
25 Wettereau (1937).
26 Holdsworth (1910).
27 Holdsworth (1910).
28 Galbraith, (1975), p. 72.
29 Griffin (1994), p. 329.
30 U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975), p. 1018, 1020.
31 Holdsworth (1910). p. 204.
32 Holdsworth (1910). Appendix F.
33 Krooss (1983), pp. 26-27. Quoted in Griffin (1994), p. 350.
34 U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975), p. 1020.
35 U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975), p. 995.
36 Warren and Pearson (1933), p. 316.
37 See White (1990), p. 251-276.
38 Quigley (1966), p. 515.
39 Nataf (1992).
40 Source: White (2011), pp. 245-274.
41 Davies (1994), p.567.
42 Copernicus (1985), pp. 190-191.
43 Rothbard (1995a), p. 213.
44 Cantillon (2010), p. 223.
45 Book II, Chapter XXVII.
46 Rothbard (1995b), pp. 207-208.
47 Source: Indiana Monetary Commission (1898), p. 554-555.
48 The amount of gold obtained by Pizarro in the initial looting of the Inca
hoards has been estimated at five metric tons. Bernstein (2000), p. 130.
49 Magee, J.D. (1910), pp. 54-58.
50 Source: Magee (1910), years 1500-1686; measuringworth.com, years
1687-2011.
51 The value of the British pound was devalued from 2000 troy grains of
silver in 1543 to 1200 grains in 1545, 800 grains in 1546, and 400 grains in
1551, before being restored to 1768 grains in 1552. Thus, the volatility of
commodity prices in terms of gold in Britain around 1550-1560, as
represented here from the calculations of Jastram (1977), may have been
mostly an effect of these monetary changes.
52 Source: Jastram (1977).
53 “The intricate debate that has run on for two-and-a-half centuries is the
Chapter 5:
1 A similar opinion was put forth by McCloskey and Zecher (1976):
On this subject there has been much confusion growing out of the
popular notion that gold moves in international trade only “to pay
balances.” As a matter of fact, gold moves for the same fundamental
reason that any other commodity moves—to seek the best market. It
goes abroad whenever it is worth abroad more than at home, by a
sufficient margin to yield an attractive profit after paying all the
expenses of its exportation. Its importation from abroad is merely the
other side of the same shield.
3 Source: Jones and Obstfeld (2001), available at nber.org, and the
States and across the Atlantic – including the ease with which gold bullion
could be transported – can be found in Calomiris and Hubbard (1996).
5 The first use of the term “rules of the game” was ascribed to Sir Robert
There were no hard and fast rules, naturally frustrating later attempts
to find them. Due to the wide variety of operating mechanisms available
(gold convertibility, open market operations in bonds, foreign exchange
operations, and operations via lending and discounting), plus the option of
altering asset composition at will, considerable discretion was allowed to
central bankers, with the goal, as per Keynes, of maintaining the currency’s
value at its gold parity. The ultimate rule was that base money should be
contracted, by some means, when the currency value was less than its
parity value (causing gold conversion outflows), and increased when the
currency value was greater (causing gold conversion inflows). In the end,
254 Gold: The Final Standard
changing the monetary base, via one mechanism or another, is the only
thing that central banks are able to do, so to say that a gold standard system
is maintained by appropriate changes in the monetary base is close to a
tautology.
The modern equivalent of such a system is a currency board. Because it
has only one operating mechanism – foreign exchange transactions – its
operation is much more easily reduced to a simple rule, which is to buy or
sell at the parity price. Even in this case, however, a central bank has some
discretion as to its reserve asset mix. The equivalent would be a gold
standard system where base money adjustment would be done entirely via
gold conversion, and there would be no open-market operations, lending
and discounting, or foreign-exchange transactions. The Issue Department of
the Bank of England was structured along these lines after 1844, although
in practice it worked as part of an integrated system with the Banking
Department.
6 McGouldrick (1984) came to this conclusion in regard to Germany during
(1996):
centerforfinancialstability.org.
37 Lindert (1969), p. 23.
256 Gold: The Final Standard
nber.org
69 U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975), p. 898-899.
70 Source: Green (1999), GFMS.
71 See, for example, Bordo, Landon-Lane and Redish (2009), Atkenson and
nber.org.
73 National Bureau of Economic Research, “macro history database.”
nber.org.
74 Source: Jastram (1977).
Notes 257
Chapter 6:
1 Dowd (2001).
2 Source: Globalfinancialdata.com.
3 This chart, and others in this series, do not accurately represent currency
values vs. gold before 1920. The figures are calculated as a product of
exchange rates vs. the dollar, and dollar prices of gold. However, during
wartime, both exchange rates and dollar gold prices came under capital
controls. The real value of the U.S. dollar vs. gold in 1916-1919 did not
remain at its gold parity at $20.67/oz., as the Federal Reserve expanded
aggressively to fund U.S. government wartime deficits. Source: Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve (1943).
4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (1943).
5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (1943).
6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (1943).
7 Shlaes (2007), p. 97.
8 Wanniski (1978), pp. 136-159, and Reynolds (1979).
9 Wanniski (1978), pp. 136-159.
10 Hall and Ferguson (1998), p. 71.
11 Saint-Etienne (1984), p. 27.
12 Hall and Ferguson (1998), p. 72.
13 See “Dates of Adoption of Major State Taxes,” taxfoundation.org.
14 Reinhart, Carmen and Kenneth Rogoff (2009), p. 96.
15 “All Debtors To U.S. Excepting Finland To Default Today,” New York
Chapter Five, “Why Did Monetary Policy Fail in the Thirties?” including
references to many influential interpretations. Yet, the Federal Reserve did
not fail, in its mandate to maintain the dollar at its gold parity, and to
resolve any liquidity-shortage crisis issues. The whole notion of “failure”
presumes that the Federal Reserve was already on a floating-fiat system,
with a mandate for broad macroeconomic management. While the authors
of the many papers and books that Meltzer references would no doubt
agree with the notion that floating fiat currencies, and an aggressive activist
policy, are preferable to a fixed-value gold standard policy, their advocacy
for floating currencies has unfortunately clouded their interpretation of
history to such an extent that they fail to perceive the basic elements of
policy at the time.
36 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve.
37 This argument was also made by Temin (1976), p. 169.
38 Source: Bank of Greece.
39 Similar arguments were made by Douglas Irwin (2010), and Irwin
gold accumulation. Yet, the franc, pound and dollar did not rise vs. gold;
Federal Reserve and Bank of England gold reserves were higher in July
Notes 259
1931 than they were in 1926, even as France’s reserves tripled; and the
monetary bases of the Federal Reserve and Bank of France had expanded
considerably, while the Bank of England’s was essentially unchanged. These
suggestions of “deflation” (without argument that the value of gold itself
rose) are not supported by theory or evidence.
43 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (1943).
44 Eichengreen (1995), p. 12.
45 The idea that the 1929 stock market crash had serious psychological
“The decline that started in 1929 was due to a failure of aggregate demand.”
(p. 60.)
50 Boyle (1967), p. 258.
51 Rueff (1932), and Rueff (1954).
52 Keynes (1963), p. 183-184. Quoted in Bernstein (2000), p. 293.
53 source: Eichengreen (1990).
54 This conclusion was prominent in the Macmillan Report, issued July 23,
government securities came first, and thus caused the gold outflow, or
whether the gold outflow was followed by a purchase of government
securities. Either action had dire consequences.
58 source: Bank of England (2016b).
59 The claim that a contraction in the monetary base, to support the
after the Communist Revolution in 1917. The actual fate of Russia’s gold
reserves is unclear.
66 A similar conclusion was reached in Eichengreen (1990), p. 241.
67 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (1943).
68 Green (1999).
Chapter 7:
1 Eichengreen (1996), p. 96
2 Quoted in Cesarano (2006), p. 162.
3 Quoted in Cesarano (2006), p. 166.
4 Wikipedia.org, “Harry Dexter White.”
5 Quoted in Cesarano (2006), p. 179.
6 Quoted in Cesarano (2006), p. 179.
7 By the 1970s, economists began to unravel the confusion of the 1950s and
By this point, they are not talking about any real “balance of payments”
at all, but simply the regular adjustment process of a properly-operating
fixed-value currency regime, like a currency board or gold standard system.
However, the continued use of the term “balance of payments” reflects the
continuing confusion of economists of that time, to the present.
Notes 261
preceded a recession dated from April 1960 to February 1961. The high
rates of 1969 were followed by a recession dated December 1969 to
November 1970.
27 Wells (1994), p. 75.
28 For an explicit expression of this idea, see James (1996), p. 226:
James’ book was commissioned by the International Monetary Fund for the
organization’s fiftieth anniversary.
29 Friedman (1965). The term “balance of payments” refers to the increase
Chapter 8:
1 Wells (1994), p. 76.
2 In 2016, this television advertisement was rediscovered by the Lone Star
Project, and used in a television advertisement in support of presidential
candidate Ted Cruz.
3 Interview with Bloomberg Television, June 28, 2016.
4 Greenspan (2017).
5 International Monetary Fund (2014). The IMF classified the eighteen
14 The adjustment of the gold parity in 1717, which effectively made gold
the standard of value for the pound instead of silver, was a relatively minor
adjustment to a silver basis of the pound that was officially unchanged since
1601, when the “62 shilling standard” (62 shillings per troy pound of silver)
was introduced. This was a minor adjustment from the 60-shilling standard
of 1552, which stabilized the value of the pound after a series of major
debasements earlier in the sixteenth century. Thus, the value of the pound,
defined in silver and then gold, did not change much from 1552 to 1931.
Changes in the silver/gold ratio, and issues relating to coin wear,
introduced elements of variability, but these were not related to
government policy.
15 Samuel H. Williamson, "What Was the U.S. GDP Then?"
MeasuringWorth.com, 2015. U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975).
Chapter 9:
1 Zhou (2009).
2 Speech at Detroit Economic Club, November 29, 2010.
3 Remarks by Paul Volcker at the Bretton Woods Annual Committee, 2014.
4 Congressional testimony, July 21, 2004.
5 Greenspan (2017).
6 King (2016), p. 358, 369.
7 Bush, Farrant and Wright (2011).
8 Booth (2017), p. 266.
9 Rickards (2016), p. 278.
10 For a discussion of existing plans along these lines, see Rickards (2016).
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interpretations (Great N
Depression), 142, 149, 158–163, Nahal Kana, 15–16
176 Napoleon III, 107
Monetarists, 143, 149, 163, 191– Napoleonic Code, 43
92, 195, 198, 204–6, 232 Napoleonic Wars, 103, 242
monetary base, 7–8 Naram-Sin, 16
monetary gold, 126 National Bank of Belgium, 105
Monetary Gold as a Percentage of National Bank System (U.S), 76,
Aboveground Gold, 1845-1950, 108–10, 134, 151–52
128 National Bureau of Economic
A Monetary History of the United Research, 155–56, 197, 201
States, 1867-1960 (1963), 159, National Debt Productive of
166 National Prosperity (1780), 85
monetary manipulation before Nero, 29
1914, intellectual trends, 131–33 Netherlands, 59–61, 103–5, 113,
Monetary Theory and the Trade 138
Cycle (1929), 149 Neupauer, Josef, 133
money. see also commodity prices; New Economics, 179
floating fiat currencies; gold New Zealand dollar, 209
standard; paper money Newton, Sir Isaac, 65–67
in the ancient world, 33–37 Nicaragua, 145, 211
characteristics and definition of, nickels, 13n1
13–15 Niger, 211
defined, 1–2 Nine Years' War, 69
Egypt and Indus Valley 1985 Plaza Accord, 205
Civilization, 19–21 1987 Louvre Accord, 205
Mesopotamia, 15–19 Nixon, Richard, 178, 197–99, 201,
money, as human ideal, 230 204
Money and the Mechanism of "noble" coin, 43
Exchange (1875), 132 nomisma, 41
Money and Trade Considered, with Norman, Montagu, 155–56, 167
a Proposal for Supplying the Northern Song Dynasty, 45
Nation with Money (1705), 83–84 Norway, 111, 113, 138
"money in circulation," 151–53
money-market funds, 2 O
Mongol paper currency, 46–48 obol, 23
mon/mun/van (copper coins, Octavian, 29, 89
Japan/Korea/Vietnam), 58 "100% reserve," 3–6
moral values, 220–21 Oresme, Nicholas, 81–82, 223
morality, definition of, 220 Otto III, 40–41
Morris, Robert, 76–77 Overend and Gurney, 112
Mosley, Michael, 54 owl coinage, 24
Mozambique, 211
Mughal Empire, 50 P
Mundell, Robert, 10–11 Palmstruch, Johan, 68
Panama, 145
Index 289
R ryo, 61
rand, 209
Rand, Ayn, 205 S
Randolph, Edmund, 77 Sargon of Akkad, 21
Rashidun Caliphs, 49 Sassanid Empire, 45, 49
Reagan, Ronald, 205 Scandal of Money (2016), 231
Red Turbans, 48 schilling (Austrian), 133
The Reformation of the Monetary Schwartz, Anna, 159, 166
System as a Bridge to the SDR, 195–96, 210, 245–46
Socialist State (1891), 133 seals (signature stamps), 17, 21
Reichsbank, 107, 155–56 Second Bank of the United States,
relative prices, 200 78
representative money, 43–44. see Second Empire (1852-1870), 107
also banknotes Second Punic War, 28
Republic of Genoa, 42 Serbia, 106
reserve currencies, 117–18, 174 A Serious Fall in the Value of Gold
reserve-currency systems before Ascertained, and Its Social Effects
1914, 113–19 Set Forth (1863), 131–32
retaliatory tariffs, 143–44 sesterces, 27
Ricardo, David, 85, 132, 242 Shanghai Gold Exchange, 244
rice as commidity money, 51, 61 shat, 19
Riksens Ständers Bank, 68 shell rings, as money, 16
"Rising Value of Gold" Shlaes, Amity, 144
interpretation (Great Depression), Sierra Leone, 211
172–76 silk cloth as commodity money,
Rist, Charles, 155–56 46–47, 51
Roaring Twenties, 142–43 silver mining boom in 16th century,
Rockefeller, John D., 134 86–90
Roman Treasury, 28 silver penny, English, 39–40. see
Romanos III, 40–41 also Britain
Rome, 27–31 silver ruble coin, 81
Roosevelt, Theodore, 114 silver vase coin, 51
The Roots of Capitalism (1959), silver-based monetary system. see
191–92 also bimetallic coinage system;
Rostovtzeff, Michael, 20 bimetallic era, 1500-1854
Rothbard, Murray, 83, 151, 155– in ancient world, 35
56, 158, 192–93 as bimetallic system, 36
Royal Bank of Scotland, 72 in China, 32, 47, 250n3
Royal Prussian Seehandlung, 80– decline of, 110–12
81 end of with death of gold
ruble, 207 standard, 192
Rueff, Jacques, 167, 193–94 free coinage, 129–130
rupee, 50, 209, 212 in medieval Britain, 38–40
rupiya, 50 Singapore, 219
Russia, 79–81, 107–8, 113, 120, Six Dynasties, 44
136–37, 236 Smith, Adam, 85, 191–92, 215, 234
Index 291
Yugoslavia, 211
Z
Zambia, 211
Zhou Dynasty, 31–33
Zhou Xiaochuan, 236
Zhu Yuanzhang, 48
Zoe (daughter of Constantine VIII),
40–41
Zoellick, Robert, 237