sustainability

Article
The Indonesian Digital Workforce Gaps in 2021–2025
Gati Gayatri 1, * , I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya 2 and Vience Mutiara Rumata 1,3

1 Research Center for Society and Culture, The Research and Innovation Agency of the Republic of Indonesia,
Jalan Jenderal Gatot Subroto 10, Jakarta 12710, Indonesia
2 Department of Statistics, The Faculty of Math and Science, The University of Padjadjaran,
Bandung 45363, Indonesia
3 Faculty of Communication Science, The University of Esa Unggul, Jalan Arjuna Utara,
Jakarta 11510, Indonesia
* Correspondence: [email protected]

Abstract: The development and advancement of information and communication technologies have
led to major changes in industry and the labor system in Indonesia. In the context of the digital
economy, Indonesia needs to immediately improve digital labor policies based on research results.
However, studies on Indonesian digital workforces mostly come from global nonacademic publica-
tions, which acknowledge the limitation of the workforces. This study addresses the gaps between
the supply and demand of digital workforces in 2021–2025 by conducting a Bayesian analysis on the
data from the 2018 Indonesian Statistics Bureau and the 2020 ILO ICT job demand forecast. According
to the findings, the supply of digital workforces will outnumber the demand, which is expected to
be 600,000 workers per year. This surplus number poses a new challenge for the government if the
available workforce lacks the competencies needed in the industry. According to the study, IT system
programmer/developer/administrator/system analyst and IT web designer/developer will still be
popular job roles during this time. It is suggested that improving these digital skills in the current
and future workforces should be a top priority for the government.

Keywords: digital workforce; supply and demand; Indonesia; 2021–2025

Citation: Gayatri, G.; Jaya, I.G.N.M.; 1. Introduction

Rumata, V.M. The Indonesian Digital
The Industrial Revolution 4.0 is the result of recent digital technology developments
Workforce Gaps in 2021–2025.
that have disrupted the processes of production, distribution, and consumption of products
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754. https://
and services. This disruption has occurred in nearly all sectors: health, education, politics,
doi.org/10.3390/su15010754
public services, finance and trade, commerce, and even manufacturing. The Internet no
Academic Editor: Carla Maria longer only allows human–computer communication but also human–machine–product
Marques Curado communications through smart technologies beyond time and space. Smart automation,
Received: 16 November 2022
integrated product development (physical and digital production), advanced predictive
Revised: 16 December 2022
analytics, and business model disruption are the four pillars of this revolution.
Accepted: 26 December 2022
This disruption inevitably requires the adoption of new skills beyond ordinary digital
Published: 31 December 2022 literacy. Some of the new skills needed include cloud computing, big data analytics, the
Internet of Things (IoT), encryption and cyber security, and artificial intelligence [1,2].
Even robotic technology requires new skills, such as those of mechatronics specialists and
industrial cognitive scientists, and automation bionics [3]. Smart factories, which are the
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. essential feature of the 4.0 Industrial Revolution, need skilled workforces that can operate
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. the convergence between mechanical or electronic components and software-based system
This article is an open access article
applications. Globally, smart factories collect at least 2.5 quintillion bytes of data, making
distributed under the terms and
this “cyber–physical production system” extremely complex in terms of data management
conditions of the Creative Commons
and security [4].
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
As a result, job requirements are shifting to either entirely new job titles or old job
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
titles with upgraded and expanded skill sets. According to LinkedIn (2022), job roles
4.0/).

Sustainability 2023, 15, 754. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010754 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 2 of 15

such as machine learning engineer, business development representative with software

as a service (SaaS) skills, user experience researcher, business system administrator with
troubleshooting skills, and technical product manager with agile methodologies or software
development life cycle skills have grown exponentially in the United States over the last
five years [5].
The availability of skilled digital workforces remains difficult, at least in South-
east Asia. A comparative study of four countries—Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and
Cambodia—reveals that the biggest proportion of the employed population (approxi-
mately 40–60 percent) is in very low digital occupations (jobs that require minimal digital
technology, such as chefs who might use computers or smartphones), while the advanced
digital skill vocation has the lowest employment proportion, ranging from 0.8% in Cambo-
dia to 4.7% in Malaysia [6]. As previously mentioned, with new emerging job titles and
skill set requirements, basic digital skills, such as using search engines to find information
or sending emails, are no longer relevant. The industry needs more advanced digital skills
that fit specific tasks and functions.
Indonesia is a developing country with great digital economic potential. The value
of the country’s digital economy is projected to reach USD 146 billion by 2025 and USD
330 billion by 2030, the highest GMV value in the Southeast Asian area [7]. To grasp this po-
tential, the government proposed a national acceleration program for digital transformation
that encompasses five priorities: (1) digital and internet infrastructure development; (2) a
digital transformation roadmap in strategic sectors, such as public services, social services,
education, health, commerce, industry, and broadcasting; (3) the development of a national
data center; (4) the development of digitally skilled human resources; and (5) digital regu-
latory and funding schemes [8,9]. Digitally skilled human resources will probably be the
government’s primary concern to anticipate the future needs in 2045, when workers of
productive age will dominate the population, which will reach approximately 180 million
people (while those of an unproductive age will be approximately 80 million) [10]. This
is known as the “Indonesia Gold 2045” vision in which one of the goals is to remove the
nation from the “middle income trap” [11].
Amid this enormous digital economy potential, the lack of advanced digitally skilled
workers remains the nation’s biggest challenge. The number of science, technology, engi-
neering, and mathematics (STEM) graduates in Indonesia is quite low compared to other
nations, at 0.8 per 100 graduates, compared to Iran (4.2), Russia (3.9), China (3.4), India
(2.0), the United States (1.8), and Japan (1.5) [12]. Moreover, the penetration of vocational
graduates in the industry is relatively low. The vocational graduates who majored in
computer and informatics are the second largest unemployed group after graduates who
major in automotive, which reached 246,091 and 373,444 graduates, respectively [13]. The
digitally skilled workforce gap does not occur due to the lack of graduates in STEM or
others related majors only. Conversely, the gap also occurs when the number of graduates
may be outnumbering the numbers of available jobs. Nevertheless, it is common that most
of the graduates’ competence may not meet the industry’s requirements. In addressing
this, companies may be either upskilling their current employees in particular digitally
skilled areas [14] or obtaining foreign professionals to cover the voids in digital marketing,
software engineering, operations, and finance [12]. It is worth noting that the recent Om-
nibus Act permits enterprises to recruit foreign labor, with authorization from the federal
government [15]. Digital start-ups are one of these enterprises.
Studies on the digital workforce in Indonesia are dominated by reports issued by
well-known global consultants. They may state the potential growth numbers in the report,
but the data source used is questionable. On the other hand, studies on this matter by local
academicians are insufficient to analyze the digital skilled workforce mismatch, shortage,
and gap at the national level. This study addressed how and in what way the digitally
skilled workforce gap may potentially exist in 2021–2025 by analyzing supply and demand
trends in 2016–2020. Apart from the number, this study also analyzed potential digital skill
set gaps within that period. This study is important in two ways. First, this study may
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 3 of 15

provide empirical data, such as the potential digital workforce supply and demand, which
are needed by policymakers and executors for digital workforce development in Indonesia.
Second, this study may support other relevant nongovernmental stakeholders in Indonesian
digital workforce development, such as in education, training, and certification institutions.

Conceptual Framework
The emerging need for an advanced digitally skilled workforce is aligned with the idea
of an “information society” in which the production, distribution, consumption, integration,
and manipulation of information become the core of economic, political, and cultural activ-
ities. The post-industrial society theory, which emphasizes the dominance of knowledge
and creativity-based occupations, service-based economy, innovation-based transformation,
and computerization, has had a strong influence on the idea of information society the-
ory [16]. The nature of this society allows for continuous changes in technology, economy,
occupation, spatiality, and culture, resulting in increased white collar employment and
important professional positions, a greater role for intellectuals, more person-to-person
employment, a decrease in laissez-faire work patterns, an increase in better work plan-
ning, interpersonal relationships becoming more important, and economization becoming
sociological [17].
The adoption of digital technologies in the industry is not solely for increasing their
products’ quality but to transform their business products and processes in vigorous ways
to survive in the tight competition of today. Thus, industry needs more and more digitally
skilled workers. When recruiting a digital workforce, it is important for a candidate to be
able to demonstrate the ability to operate IT strategically and in a transformative way that
may go beyond traditional tasks and functions. The digital workforce, mostly dominated
by digital natives and digital immigrants, is supposed to have a level of digital fluency
that goes beyond data manipulation, creative presentation of information, creative product
designs, and ways of working [18].
Scholars try to conceptualize digital skills and propose frameworks that encompass
levels or categorizations of digital skills with slightly distinct characteristics (Table 1).
Digital skills, in general, refer to skill sets to manage data and information through digital
devices, communication applications, and networks. Individuals with these talents may
create and disseminate digital material and successfully communicate, collaborate, and
solve problems for self-development, social, and task-related purposes.
In this study, digital skills are understood to be specialized or advanced skills that
promote the daily use of digital technology for intelligence-related tasks, technical functions
for specific purposes, innovation-based outputs, transformative business models, and
workplace culture both for the present and the future. According to Presidential Regulation
No. 8 of 2012 [23], the Indonesian government has standardized qualifications for education,
job training, and work experience (the Indonesian Qualifications Framework, or hereinafter
KKNI). The KKNI has nine competency levels that are classified into three groups: an
operator group (levels 1–3), a technical/analytical group (levels 4–6), and an expert group
(levels 7–9). Based on KNNI, digital workforces are made up of workers or professionals
who have ICT skills as a supplement or specialty (expert groups), as well as ICT technicians,
analysts, and managers (technical and analytical groups) (Figure 1).
A “digital-skilled workforce gap” exists when the number of available graduates
with certain digital skills cannot be absorbed by the industry. This can be caused by a
shortage of skilled workers in a company [25–27] or by a shortage of workers with relevant
skills for a specific task or function that is required in a company, which is referred to as
a skill deficiency or skill mismatch [28–30]. This deficiency eventually may influence the
company’s performance.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 4 of 15

Table 1. Existing digital skills frameworks.

No. Institution Classification Characteristics

Entry-level digital skills Basic digital devices and online applications functions
1 UNESCO (2018) [19] The usage of digital technology for task-related
Advanced digital skills
professions transformation

Daily working skills such as accessing online

Generic skills
information or using software

Skills for ICT product and services functions, such as

2 OECD (2016) [20] Specialist skills cloud computing, network managing, application
development, or big data analysis

Skills for information, communication, and

Complementary skills
problem-solving functions

Basic digital hardware and software literacy skills,

Basic skills such as communication through email or filling out
online forms

Skills to use digital technology for profitable and

Intermediate skills meaningful purposes, such as digital content creator,
3 ITU (2018) [21]
digital graphic design, and others

ICT-related specialists, such as computer

programming, network management, artificial
Advanced skills
intelligence (AI), big data, coding, cybersecurity,
Internet of Things (IoT), and mobile app development

Basic Digital literacy

Job classifications encompass technical support,

animation, computer graphics, digital marketing,
Applied
enterprise software, graphic design, information
management, social media, and system administration

Job classifications encompass computer hardware,

computer networking, data storage technologies,
4 Zhu et al. (2018) [22] game development, mobile application development,
Software and Hardware
product development, scientific computing, signal
processing, software development life cycle (SDLC),
software testing, and web development

Job classifications encompass development tools,

artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, data science,
Disruptive fintech, human–computer interaction, materials
science, nanotechnology, robotics, aerospace
engineering, and genetic engineering

The digital-skilled workforce gap in Indonesia gets little attention among researchers.
Existing reports or working papers in this matter may show a projection or a map of labor
demands in Indonesia. However, these reports show defects to some degrees. In January
2020, a report on Indonesia’s critical occupation lists for 2018 was released, containing
35 shortage occupations based on Indonesian Job Codebook classifications [31]. These
35 critical occupations contribute nearly 11 percent of the overall 312 occupations under
Indonesian Job Codebook classifications, whereby each of these occupations has specific job
titles that are also in shortage. Among these critical occupations, three occupations are in in-
formation and communication sectors: (1) professionals in business intelligence (including
data management experts, data scientists, DevOps engineers, big data engineers, network
engineers, system analysts, digital marketing specialists, and business intelligence ana-
lysts); (2) apps and system developers (including app developers, backend developers, web
 ICT-related specialists, such as computer programming, network
Advanced skills management, artificial intelligence (AI), big data, coding, cyberse-
curity, Internet of Things (IoT), and mobile app development
Basic Digital literacy
Job classifications encompass technical support, animation, com-
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 5 of 15
puter graphics, digital marketing, enterprise software, graphic de-
Applied
sign, information management, social media, and system admin-
istration
developers, software engineers, programmers, and mobile app developers); and (3) cloud
Job classifications encompass computer hardware, computer net-
solution architects and UI/UX designers. This study applied “dovetailing” procedures
Zhu et al. (2018) that combine top-down (nationaldata
working, laborstorage
markettechnologies,
analysis based game development,
on the mobile
existing classification
4
[22] Software and Hardware application development, product development,
of occupation data) and bottom-up (institutional qualitative analysis) approaches. scientific compu-
Even
so, this report did notting, signal
further showprocessing,
the exactsoftware
numberdevelopment
and competency life cycle
level,(SDLC),
based on
either international or software
Indonesian testing, and web
standards, development
of each job title in shortage. Another World
Bank (2018) report suggestsJob classifications encompass
a potential shortage of 9development
million skilled tools,
andartificial intelli-
semi-skilled ICT
workers between 2015gence and 2030
(AI), [32]. Nevertheless,
cybersecurity, this report
data science, did not
fintech, show the exact
human–computer
numberDisruptive
of shortages each year within that period.
interaction, materials science,In addition to the robotics,
nanotechnology, COL, some reports
aerospace
list job titles that are inengineering,
high demandand in the Indonesian
genetic engineeringindustry. McKinsey (2019) reports
those occupations that include digital marketing, software development life cycle (SDLC),
human–computer
In this study,interaction,
digital skillsdevelopment
are understood tools,
todata storage technologies,
be specialized or advanced artificial in-
skills that
telligence, data science, and social media specialists. Likewise, ILO (2020a)
promote the daily use of digital technology for intelligence-related tasks, technical func- reports some
occupations that include
tions for specific information
purposes, security analyst,
innovation-based business
outputs, system analyst,
transformative e-commerce
business models,
specialist, training and development specialist, user acquisition specialist,
and workplace culture both for the present and the future. According to Presidential AI and machine
Reg-
learning
ulation No.specialist, digital
8 of 2012 transformation
[23], the specialist, organizational
Indonesian government has standardized specialist, IT service
qualifications for
specialist, people and culture specialist, digital marketing specialist, IoT specialist, and
education, job training, and work experience (the Indonesian Qualifications Framework,
cyber security specialist.
or hereinafter KKNI). The KKNI has nine competency levels that are classified into three
Similar to studies on demand, studies on digital skill supply in Indonesia are also
groups: an operator group (levels 1–3), a technical/analytical group (levels 4–6), and an
deficient. A study on this subject only identifies factors that may contribute to an increase
expert group (levels 7–9). Based on KNNI, digital workforces are made up of workers or
in the number of graduates in ICT sectors between 2011 and 2018. These factors include
professionals who have ICT skills as a supplement or specialty (expert groups), as well as
ICT infrastructure usage, demography, economic structure, and education level [33].
ICT technicians, analysts, and managers (technical and analytical groups) (Figure 1).

Figure1.1.The
Figure TheIndonesian
IndonesianQualifications
Qualifications Frameworks.
Frameworks. Source
Source from
from thethe Indonesian
Indonesian Directorate
Directorate Gen-
General
eral of Higher Education in 2012 cited in [24].
of Higher Education in 2012 cited in [24].

2. Materials and Methods

The purpose of this study was to forecast the Indonesian digital workforce shortage
in 2021–2025 by comparing labor supply and demand over the last five years, 2016–2020.
The data on supply were derived from data on tertiary vocational and higher education
school graduates that major in STEM and other fields related to communication and
informatics that were issued by the Ministry of Education and Culture. The demand data
were derived from the rate of employment growth reported in the “National Labor Force
Survey” report [34].
This study applied a Bayesian analysis technique that was properly designed for a
relatively small sample size and possible missing value data [35]. The Bayesian method
was superior for short time series compared to classical time series approaches, such
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 6 of 15

as exponential smoothing or autoregressive integrated moving average, which require

a minimum sample size [35]. The method is able to forecast by involving information
obtained from observation and prior distributions. The Bayesian method is applied using
the R-INLA application program [36]. Notably, the use of a short time series does not
permit model comparisons using the in-and-out sample method. To calculate the number
of workforces and identify the demand for occupations or job titles, this study employs
the Rapid Assessment of Information and Communication Technology Skills Demands in
Indonesia data report that was issued by the ILO as the proportional basis of value [37].

3. Results
In this study, the future digitally skilled workforces are those who graduate from
both the tertiary vocational schools and the higher-degree universities, particularly those
majoring in STEM and other communication and informatics-related fields. They may
or may not have received digital course academy training or certification from nonfor-
mal educational institutions. Therefore, this study used data on graduates with selected
majors from three formal educational institutions in Indonesia: (1) the vocational high
school (Sekolah Menengah Kejuruan, or hereinafter SMK); (2) the vocational higher degree
(polytechnic); and (3) the higher degree (university) (Table 2). Based on the Indonesian
standard’s KKNI, the digital skill level of SMK’s graduates was considered complementary,
while the digital skill level of graduates with higher degrees (vocational and university)
was considered complementary and specialist. Both complementary and specialist skills
are needed for Indonesian workforces nowadays, apart from soft skills such as leadership,
communication, and business/marketing [32].

Table 2. List of selected digital skilled related courses.

No. Educational Institution Courses/Majors/Programs

Communication group:
Graphic Design, Graphic Preparation, Graphic Production, Visual Communication Design, Animation,
Radio Program Production and Broadcasting Engineering, Radio and Television Program Production
and Broadcasting Engineering, Film and Television Program Production, Film Production,
Marketing/Marketing, Online Business and Marketing.
1 The vocational high school
Informatics group:
Industrial Automation Engineering, Power Electronics and Communication Engineering, Audio Video
Engineering, Communication Electronics Engineering, Mechatronics Engineering, Autotronic
Engineering, Information Systems, Networks and Applications, Software Engineering, Computer and
Network Engineering, Access Network Engineering, Telecommunication Transmission Engineering,
Suitsing Engineering.

Technology group:
Management of Informatics

Engineering group:
Mechatronics, Industrial Electronics Engineering, Telecommunication (including Telecommunication
Engineering, and Telecommunication Technology), Informatics Engineering, Computer Engineering
(including Computer and Network Engineering), Application Software Engineering, Electronic
Engineering, Informatics Engineering, Industrial Electrical Engineering, Manufacturing Electronics
Engineering, Systems Information, Information Technology, Computer Control Engineering,
The vocational higher degree Accounting Information Systems, Electrical Engineering, Computer Technology, Statistics, Graphic
2
(polytechnic) Engineering, Visual Information Systems, and Server Administration and Computer Networks.

Communication group:
Mass Communication, Applied Communication, Radio and Television Broadcasting, Journalism, and
Graphic Design (including Computer Graphics).

Arts group:
Network Computer Engineering Technology, Game Animation, Visual Communication Design, Film
and Television Production (including Television and Film), Video and TV Film Management and
Production, Multimedia Computers, and Visual Information Systems.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 7 of 15

Table 2. Cont.

No. Educational Institution Courses/Majors/Programs

STEM group:
Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Physics, Statistics and Data Science, Applied Statistics and
Computerized Statistics, Mathematics (including Mathematics and Science Applications), Computer
Science, Computational Science or Science, and Library and Information Science.

Technology group:
Information Management, Information Systems and Technology, Game Technology, Information
Security, Accounting Computing Systems and Accounting computerization, Information Systems,
Information Technology (except Information Technology Education), and Automation Engineering
(including Automation Engineering Engineering).

Engineering group:
Informatics Engineering, Software Engineering, Computer Science, Computer Engineering (including
Computer and Network Engineering), Electrical Engineering (except Electromedical Engineering,
3 The higher degree (university)
Shipping Electrical Engineering), Telecommunication Engineering (including digital
telecommunications networks), Engineering Physics, Computer Systems, Computer Systems
Engineering, Mechatronics Engineering, Cartography and Remote Sensing, Telecommunication
Engineering or Engineering, Software Engineering Technology, Communication Management
(Engineering Field), and Communication Information Management (Engineering Field).

Math group:
Mathematics and Applied Mathematics (excluding Mathematics Education).

Arts and Communication groups:

Graphic Design, Journalism (including Islamic Journalism), Communication Studies, Broadcasting
(including Islamic Communication and Broadcasting), Media Production Management, Film (including
Film and Television Production, Film and Television Production Management), and Media and
Communication.

3.1. The Workforce Supply and Demand in 2016–2020

Table 3 shows the number of vocational high school graduates in communication and
informatics from 2016 to 2020. The number of graduates in 2018 and 2020 is not available
in the report. Even so, the data show that the number of graduates in informatics is higher
than for communication. The average number of vocational high school graduates from
both courses reached more than 300,000 alumni per year.

Table 3. The vocational high school graduates in 2016–2020. Data source and permission: Directorate
of Vocational Education, the Ministry of Education and Culture (2021).

No. Course 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1 Informatics 234,274 204,121 NA 285,643 NA

2 Communication 73,694 61,022 NA 81,744 NA

Total 307,968 265,143 NA 367,387 NA

Meanwhile, the number of vocational higher degree graduates was the lowest com-
pared to the other two educational institutions, which had an average of 32,500 alumni
annually. Graduate data from 2016 to 2020 show a fluctuating trend, particularly in the
years 2018 and 2020, which declined significantly compared to those in 2016, 2017, and
2019 (Table 4). The course in technology was the most attractive course in the vocational
higher degree institution, at least until 2018, when the number of graduates declined quite
significantly in the following years. In contrast, the number of engineering graduates
remained relatively stable between 2016 and 2018, before declining significantly in 2019.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 8 of 15

Table 4. The vocational high degree graduates in 2016–2020. Data source and permission: Directorate
of Vocational Education, the Ministry of Education and Culture (2021).

No. Course 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1 Technology 18,995 17,904 11,994 8489 6956
2 Engineering 15,545 15,061 14,229 25,683 17,699
3 Communication 1449 1892 1803 1760 1527
4 Arts 466 507 558 503 390
Total 36,455 35,364 28,584 36,435 26,572

The trend for higher degree (university) graduates gradually increased from 2016
to 2019, but it declined in 2020. This tendency occurred at every level: undergradu-
ate (hereinafter S1), master’s (hereinafter S2), and doctorate (hereinafter S3). The num-
ber of higher degree (university) graduates between 2016 and 2020, with an average of
600,855 graduates per month or approximately 120 thousand per year (Table 5), Graduates
of higher education are supposedly workforces of intermediate (IQF levels 4, 5, and 6)
and advanced/specialist (IQF levels 7, 8, and 9). According to this data, the number of
intermediate-level digitally skilled workforces, which is equivalent to undergraduate (S1)
workers, totaled 569,778, while the number of specialists master’s (S2) and doctorate (S3)
graduates was 29,810 and 1267, respectively.

Table 5. The higher degree (university) graduates in 2016–2020. Data source and permission:
Directorate of Vocational Education, the Ministry of Education and Culture (2021).

Communication
Year Course STEM Technology Engineering Math Total
and Arts
S1 1135 25,986 53,687 3065 22,024 113,047
2016 S2 1473 847 2515 291 1623 6458
S3 146 0 73 - 58 277
S1 11,955 26,736 5489 3045 23,439 11,702
2017 S2 136 1026 2381 248 1672 6439
S3 131 0 75 - 85 291
S1 12,176 25,553 54,175 316 25,89 117,794
2018 S2 1336 865 1892 311 1662 5755
S3 142 0 108 - 60 310
S1 13,113 24,912 53,898 3401 28,726 120,649
2019 S2 137 890 2167 239 1668 6095
S3 163 0 113 - 75 351
S1 10,063 21,614 44,534 2668 25,057 101,268
2020 S2 1097 998 1699 152 1269 5063
S3 119 38 73 - 38 268

In addition to the number of graduates of those three formal educations, the supply
data may derive from nonformal education that offer professional certificate-based training
programs that are delivered by public or private institutions. The Indonesian government
launched several professional certificate-based training programs to meet the demand for
skilled digital workforces. The Ministry of Communication and Informatics (hereinafter
Kominfo), as a leading regulator in the digital sector, launched a “Digital Training Scholar-
ship” to support national development priorities in the last five years. In 2020, there were
 In addition to the number of graduates of those three formal educations, the supply
data may derive from nonformal education that offer professional certificate-based train-
ing programs that are delivered by public or private institutions. The Indonesian govern-
ment launched several professional certificate-based training programs to meet the de-
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 mand for skilled digital workforces. The Ministry of Communication and Informatics 9 of 15
(hereinafter Kominfo), as a leading regulator in the digital sector, launched a “Digital
Training Scholarship” to support national development priorities in the last five years. In
2020,
at leastthere
58,116were at least 58,116
participants participants
(public, freshmen,(public,
and publicfreshmen,
sector and public sector
employees) employ-
who received
ees) who received professional training and certificates, most of which
professional training and certificates, most of which originated from international or global originated from
international or global
technology companies [38]. technology companies [38].
Inaddition,
In addition,the the government
government hashas a national
a national competency-based
competency-based standard
standard (Standar(Standar
Kom-
Kompetensi Kerja Nasional Indonesia, hereinafter SKKNI). Three
petensi Kerja Nasional Indonesia, hereinafter SKKNI). Three SKKNI in the communications, SKKNI in the commu-
nications, telecommunications,
telecommunications, and informatics
and informatics sectors aresectors are available
available as a reference
as a reference of pro-
of professional
fessional competency for the industry (including professional certificate-based
competency for the industry (including professional certificate-based institutions). Nonethe- institu-
tions).
less, Nonetheless,
these these SKKNI
SKKNI documents are documents are intended
intended primarily primarily
for the unskilledfor and
the unskilled
semi-skilled and
semi-skilled workforce (ICT operators and technicians). So far, the
workforce (ICT operators and technicians). So far, the number of vocational high school number of vocational
highdegree
and schoolgraduates
and degree whograduates
have a who have a competency-based
competency-based certificate iscertificate
relativelyislow,
relatively
at ap-
low, at approximately
proximately 472,089 (BAPPENAS,
472,089 (BAPPENAS, 2019). In to
2019). In addition addition to the government-aided
the government-aided training
training programs,
programs, the otherthe other professional
professional certificate-based
certificate-based training training
providers providers
are in the are in the
private
privateincluding
sector, sector, including global technology
global technology companies, companies, such asMicrosoft,
such as Oracle, Oracle, Microsoft, Google,
Google, Cisco, or
Cisco, or EC Council. But the number of certificate
EC Council. But the number of certificate holders remains unknown. holders remains unknown.
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determiningthe the growth
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the growth
growth of ICT-related
ICT-related occupa-
occupa-
tions
tionsfrom
from20162016toto2020.
2020.The
Theannual
annualgrowth
growthwithinwithinthis
thisperiod
periodisisapproximately
approximately600,000.
600,000.

632,474
608,298 602,022
561,678

445,068

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Figure2.2.The
Figure TheICT-related
ICT-relatedoccupational
occupationalgrowth
growthinin2016–2020
2016–2020[34].
[34].

3.2. The Digital-Skilled Workforce Forecast in 2021–2025

3.2. The Digital-Skilled Workforce Forecast in 2021–2025
Based on the available data and the y.o.y comparison between the number of vocational
Based on the available data and the y.o.y comparison between the number of voca-
high school, vocational higher degree, and higher degree graduates and the ICT-related
tional high school, vocational higher degree, and higher degree graduates and the ICT-
occupational growth, there was a workforce deficit from at least 2017 to 2020 (Table 6).
related occupational growth, there was a workforce deficit from at least 2017 to 2020 (Ta-
Despite a graduate surplus compared to available jobs at the time, the average number of
ble 6). Despite a graduate surplus compared to available jobs at the time, the average
digitally skilled workers in 2016–2020 was 86,300 per year.
number of digitally skilled workers in 2016–2020 was 86,300 per year.
Table 6. The workforce gap y.o.y in 2016–2020.

Higher Vocational Vocational Supply in Occupation

Year Gap
Degree Degree School Total in Total

2016 119,787 36,457 307,962 464,206 445,068 19,138

2017 123,734 35,358 265,156 424,248 561,678 −137,430

2018 123,903 28,599 302,044 454,546 608,298 −153,752
2019 127,041 36,421 367,381 530,843 632,474 −101,631
2020 106,623 26,577 450,278 583,478 602,022 −18,544
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 10 of 15

To calculate the forecast of a digitally skilled workforce shortage within 2021–2025, the
first thing to know is the estimate of the number of graduates in those three educational
institutions by means of a Bayesian approach. The results are presented in Table 7.

Table 7. A forecast of the graduate numbers in three educational institutions (2016–2025).

Vocational Vocational High

Year Higher Degree Total
Degree School

2016 119,787 36,457 307,962 464,206

2017 123,734 35,358 265,156 424,248

2018 123,903 28,599 302,044 454,546

2019 127,041 36,421 367,381 530,843

2020 106,623 26,577 450,278 583,478

2021 123,598 32,994 469,780 626,372

2022 123,936 33,881 490,531 648,348

2023 126,741 34,720 512,667 674,128

2024 126,999 35,460 536,336 698,795

2025 126,999 36,044 561,706 724,749

3.3. The ICT-Related Occupational Growth in 2016–2020 and Its 2021–2025 Forecast
Based on the Bayesian analysis, there will be at least 3,220,897 occupations, or an
average of 600,000 in growth each year, available within the years 2021–2025 (Table 8).
According to the Bayesian time series analyses, ICT-related occupations will grow at a
similar rate, with an average annual growth of nearly 10,000.
This means that the availability of a digitally skilled workforce will be greater than
the availability of occupations, with the average number reaching 30,300 surplus workers
per year (Table 9). This finding is in line with previous studies, which predicted that there
will be a digitally skilled workforce deficit of at least 9 million in total in 2015–2030, or
approximately 600,000 shortages each year [2,12,32,39].

Table 8. The forecast of the digital-skilled workforce demand in 2021–2025.

Year Bayesian
2016 445,068
2017 561,678
2018 608,298
2019 632,474
2020 602,022
2021 624,492
2022 634,189
2023 644,032
2024 654,023
2025 664,161
Total 6,070,437
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 11 of 15

Table 9. The supply and demand of the digitally skilled workforce in 2016–2025.

Higher Vocational Vocational Supply in Occupation

Year Gap
Degree Degree School Total in Total

2016 119,787 36,457 307,962 464,206 445,068 19,138

2017 123,734 35,358 265,156 424,248 561,678 −137,430

2018 123,903 28,599 302,044 454,546 608,298 −153,752
2019 127,041 36,421 367,381 530,843 632,474 −101,631
2020 106,623 26,577 450,278 583,478 602,022 −18,544
2021 123,598 32,994 469,780 626,372 624,492 1880

2022 123,936 33,881 490,531 648,348 634,189 14,159

2023 126,741 34,720 512,667 674,128 644,032 30,096

2024 126,999 35,460 536,336 698,795 654,023 44,772

2025 126,999 36,044 561,706 724,749 664,161 60,588

4. Discussion
This study shows the potential oversupply of up to 151,495 graduates within 2021–2025.
This poses challenge for the Indonesian government if this oversupply cannot be absorbed
into the industry. Instead of creating a potential digitally skilled workforce, it generates
new unemployment, which may eventually increase poverty. The current digital skilled
workforce mismatch issue can be exacerbated by this oversupply. In addition, the availabil-
ity of advanced or expert digital skills in Indonesia is less than one percent [40], whereas
the availability of a digitally skilled workforce with basic and intermediate skills is only
50 percent [41]. The SMERU report also mentions that the percentage of digitally over-
and under-skilled workers in Indonesia is higher than the OECD’s average percentage.
In Jakarta, for instance, the digitally over-skilled workers are 14.5 percent or more than
10 percent of the OECD’s average, while the digitally less-skilled workers are 4.7 percent or
more than 3.8 percent of the OECD’s average [41]. Furthermore, the report also states that
54.6 percent of workers occupy jobs that are different from their educational backgrounds,
and this percentage is higher than the 39.6 percent of the OECD’s average. In other words,
the overqualified skilled workforce may perform lower skilled digital tasks and functions
or the underqualified skilled workforce may perform higher digital tasks and functions.
The higher educational graduates may not have the competency certificates that are re-
quired in the industry. The available digitally skilled workers cannot meet the industry’s
requirements, particularly in start-up industries [42].
Upskilling and reskilling are inevitably strategic responses to the digital skill mismatch
and gap issues in Indonesia. A survey report by AWS and Alpha Beta shows that 98 percent
of respondents believe that digital upskilling is important for their job and career, while
36 percent think that they are not skilled enough for their job roles. This survey also predicts
that there are at least 17.2 million Indonesians who need digital training, particularly in
cloud computing, cyber security, digital marketing, or digital migration [43,44]. As part of
the Short to Medium Term Development Plan (BAPPENAS, 2019), the government aims to
increase the number of existing workers with intermediate or advanced digital skills by
50% by 2024. One of Kominfo’s strategic priorities is the Digital Talent Scholarship (here-
inafter DTS), which is a certificate-based digital training program for Indonesian society
from various sociodemographic backgrounds (from household wives to fresh graduate
students). DTS aims to advance students’ digital skills from beginner to intermediate [38].
It has eight academies, of which two are aimed at future digitally skilled workforces: the
Fresh Graduate Academy (hereinafter FGA) and the Vocational School Graduate Academy
(VSGA). Even so, the output of this program may be less than the supply. This year, there
 According to the Bayes method, the following occupations are in high demand in
Indonesia: (1) IT system programmer/developer/admin/system analyst (450,926); (2) IT
web designer and developer (PHP, Magento, WordPress) (322,090); (3) creative con-
tent/content creator/creative designer/video editor/graphic designer (257,672); (4) mobile
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 apps developer/android developer/app engineer (257,673); (5) IT software engineer. The
12 of 15
results of the analysis showed a tendency that was almost the same as the results of the
analysis using the Bayes method (Figure 3).
are atThe
leastfindings confirmparticipants
281.1 thousand previous studies. McKinsey
who passed predictsinthat
the training there will in
all academies beDTS
an addi-
[45].
tional 300,000 jobs in Indonesia related to technology professionals, such
Yet, it is not clear the extent of the penetration of DTS graduates in the industry. as web develop-
ers and IT specialists, who will experience a change in skills towards automation with a
Future Job Demand
proportion in Indonesia 1% of the total number of jobs in 2030 [12]. This trend will
of approximately
certainly have ato
According direct impact
the Bayes on the increasing
method, need
the following for a digital
occupations workforce,
are such asinpro-
in high demand In-
grammers
donesia: (1)for online programmer/developer/admin/system
IT system commerce applications or platforms. Inanalystaddition, due to(2)
(450,926); theITrapid
web
growth ofand
designer e-commerce
developerin Indonesia,
(PHP, it isWordPress)
Magento, estimated that the number
(322,090); of e-commerce
(3) creative actors
content/content
will increase from
creator/creative 4 million in 2019
designer/video to 26 million
editor/graphic in 2022.(257,672);
designer The inevitability
(4) mobileofapps
the digital
devel-
transformationdeveloper/app
oper/android in the MSME engineer
industry (257,673);
may necessitate the needengineer.
(5) IT software for a digitally skilled
The results of
workforce
the analysisfor an online
showed businessthat
a tendency model
was that includes
almost the samefinancial
as thetechnology andanalysis
results of the digital
using the Bayes method (Figure 3).
marketing.

Figure 3. The distribution of the digitally skilled workforce demand forecasted

Figure 3. forecasted for
for 2021–2025
2021–2025 based
based
on primary
on primary data
data sources
sources that
that used
used the
the Bayesian
Bayesian method.
method.

The
The findings
results ofconfirm previous
this analysis, studies.still
of course, McKinsey
need to predicts that there
be interpreted withwill be an espe-
caution, addi-
tional
cially 300,000 jobstointhe
in relation Indonesia related of
large number to technology
workforces professionals,
in the “other”such as web
category ofdevelopers
ICT skills.
and
The IT
BPSspecialists,
data usedwho willanalysis
in this experience
werea structured
change in skills
by thetowards automation
categorization with
of ICT a propor-
work fields
tion of approximately 1% of the total number of jobs in 2030 [12]. This trend
according to the KBLI in 2020, where the “other” skills category included the types of ICT will certainly
have
skillsaatdirect
that impact
time that on the
didincreasing
not includeneed for ajobs.
future digital
In workforce,
the next fewsuch as programmers
years, there is the
for online commerce applications or platforms. In addition, due to the rapid growth of
e-commerce in Indonesia, it is estimated that the number of e-commerce actors will increase
from 4 million in 2019 to 26 million in 2022. The inevitability of the digital transformation
in the MSME industry may necessitate the need for a digitally skilled workforce for an
online business model that includes financial technology and digital marketing.
The results of this analysis, of course, still need to be interpreted with caution, espe-
cially in relation to the large number of workforces in the “other” category of ICT skills.
The BPS data used in this analysis were structured by the categorization of ICT work
fields according to the KBLI in 2020, where the “other” skills category included the types
of ICT skills at that time that did not include future jobs. In the next few years, there is
the possibility of the emergence of new fields of work or positions due to the increasing
use of ICT in the workplace, and this will certainly encourage an increase in the need
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 13 of 15

for the number of digitally skilled workers in Indonesia. As explained in the Report on
the Future of Jobs [2], the fields of future work are data analytics and science, AI and
machine learning specialists, big data specialists, digital marketing and strategy specialists,
process automation specialists, business development professionals, digital transformation
specialists, information security analysts, software and application developers, Internet
of Things specialists, project managers, business services and administration managers,
database and network professionals, robotics engineers, strategic advisors, management
and organization analysts, fintech engineers, mechanics and machinery repairers, organiza-
tional development specialists, and risk management specialists. These fields of work may
be included in the category of “Other” ICT work fields because they have not been clearly
recorded in the KBLI 2020, especially business fields related to future jobs or future ICT
jobs and new jobs or positions in the ICT field that are currently beginning to emerge and
develop in Indonesia.

5. Conclusions
This study analyzed the digital skills gap in Indonesia through supply and demand. In
this study, digital skills were understood to be specialized or advanced skills that promote
the daily use of digital technology for intelligence-related tasks, technical functions for spe-
cific purposes, innovation-based outputs, transformative business models, and workplace
culture both for the present and the future. Based on Indonesia’s KKNI, digital workforces
are workers or professionals who have ICT skills as complementary and specialist skills
(expert groups) as well as ICT technicians, analysts, and managers (technical and analytical
groups). The supply of skilled digital workforces is made up of graduates from vocational
education (both high school and polytechnic) and higher degree education (universities)
who are majoring in STEM, information, and communication programs. There were at least
2,457,321 graduates between 2016 and 2020. While the growth of ICT-related occupations
in the same period was based on the Indonesian Statistic Agency’s Sakernas data, there
were at least 2,849,540 occupations. This means that there was a 392,219-person digital
skills shortage during this time.
Based on the Bayesian method, it was forecasted that the supply of digitally skilled
workers will exceed the demand in 2021–2025. The supply will reach at least 3,372,392 grad-
uates, while there will be at least 3,220,897 occupations, or an average of 600,000 each
year, available within that period, which means that the supply will be at least 151,495.
Even though skilled digital workers are in short supply, this does not necessarily mean
something positive. The biggest issues continue to be the mismatch and gap in digital skills.
This study recommends strategic planning to overcome these issues, which include
the establishment of a national certification system in the ICT sector so that educational,
training, and industrial employment institutions have clear guidelines on developing
human resources for digital workers and prospective workers; the development of centers
of excellence for industrial and university collaboration and the digital industry for the
purpose of forming and enhancing digital skills as well as preparing prospective workers
to enter industrial employment; and efforts to develop digital skills and talent training
center models (including online training models, which can be applied by stakeholders
according to the context of their respective situations and conditions). Furthermore, it
suggests increasing apprenticeship and on-the-job training in industrial companies to more
effectively and efficiently form new digital skills; talent scouting; and efforts to develop
job market information systems and the digital economy business world to bring together
job providers and job seekers so that a match between the supply and demand of a digital
workforce can be realized.
It is important for the government to continue digital upskilling and reskilling pro-
grams that focus on high-demand occupations, such as data analysts, data scientists,
information security analysts, business system analysts, e-commerce specialists, training
and development specialists, user acquisition specialists, AI and machine learning spe-
cialists, digital transformation specialists, organizational specialists, IT service specialists,
Sustainability 2023, 15, 754 14 of 15

people and culture specialists, digital marketing specialists, IoT specialists, and cyber
security specialists.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, G.G.; methodology, G.G.; software, I.G.N.M.J.; validation,

G.G. and I.G.N.M.J.; formal analysis, G.G. and V.M.R.; investigation, G.G., V.M.R. and I.G.N.M.J.;
resources, G.G., V.M.R. and I.G.N.M.J.; data curation, I.G.N.M.J.; writing—original draft preparation,
G.G., V.M.R. and I.G.N.M.J.; writing—review and editing, G.G. and V.M.R.; visualization, I.G.N.M.J.;
supervision, G.G. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the Ministry of Communication and Informatics of the
Republic of Indonesia through the Center of Informatics Application and Information and Public
Communication’s 2021 annual budget.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Acknowledgments: The authors thank the other researchers that were part of a team based on a
decree by the head of the Research and Human Resources Department of the Ministry of Communi-
cation and Informatics of the Republic of Indonesia, number 5/2021.
Conflicts of Interest: All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. The views and
opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official
policy or position of the Indonesian government, particularly the Ministry of Communication and
Informatics of the Republic of Indonesia.

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