Tishk International University

Engineering Faculty
Petroleum and Mining Department

Petroleum Production Engineering II

Lecture 3: Production Decline Analysais
4th-Grade- Spring 2022-2023

Instructor: Nabaz Ali

[email protected]
 Various Pressure Losses in The Production System

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Content
• Introduction
• Exponential Decline
• Harmonic Decline
• Hyperbolic Decline
• Model Identification
• Determination of Model Parameters
• Illustrative Examples
• Summary
• Homework

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3.1 Introduction
Production decline analysis is a traditional means of
identifying well production problems and predicting well
performance and life based on real production data. It
uses empirical decline models that have little fundamental
justifications.
These models include:

1. Exponential decline
2. Harmonic decline
3. Hyperbolic decline

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3.1 Introduction
While the hyperbolic decline model is more general, the
other two models are degenerations of the hyperbolic
decline model. These three models are related through the
following relative decline rate equation (Arps, 1945):
1 dq
= −bq d (3.1)
q dt
where b and d are empirical constants to be determined based on
production data.
When
d = 0, Eq. (3.1) degenerates to an exponential decline model
d =1, Eq. (3.1) yields a harmonic decline model.
0 < d < 1, Eq. (3.1) derives a hyperbolic decline model.
The decline models are applicable to both oil and gas wells.

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3.2 Exponential Decline
3.2.1 Relative Decline Rate
Under the pseudo-steady state flow condition, the production
rate at a given decline time t can be expressed as:

kh( pt − p cwf )
q= (3.2)
  0.472 re  
141 .2 B0  ln   + s 
  rw  
p t = average reservoir pressure at decline time t,
c = the critical bottom hole pressure maintained during
p wf
the production decline.
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The cumulative oil production of the well after the
production decline time t can be expressed as:

t kh( pt − p cwf )
Np =  dt (3.3)
  0.472 re  
141 .2 Bo  ln   + s 
0

  rw  
The cumulative oil production after the production decline upon decline time t
can be also be evaluated based on the total reservoir compressibility:
ct N i
Np = ( p 0 − pt ) (3.4)
Bo
c = total reservoir compressibility,
t

Ni = initial oil in place in the well drainage area,

p = average reservoir pressure at decline time zero.
0

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 Substituting Eq (3.3) into Eq (3.4) yields:

t kh( pt − p cwf )
 dt =
ct N i
( p0 − pt ) (3.5)
  0.472 re   Bo
141.2 Bo  ln   + s 
0

  rw  

Taking derivative on both sides of this equation with respect to time t gives
the differential equation for reservoir pressure:

kh( pt − p cwf ) dpt

= − ct N i (3.6)
  0.472 re   dt
141 .2 ln   + s 
  rw  
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Since the left-hand-side of this equation is q and Eq (3.2) gives

dq kh dpt
= (3.7)
dt   0.472 re   dt
141.2 B0  ln   + s 
  rw  
Eq (3.6) becomes

  0.472 re  
− 141.2ct N i  ln   + s 
  rw   dq
q=
(3.8)
kh dt

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or the relative decline rate equation of

1 dq
= −b (3.9)
q dt

Where,

kh
b=
  0.472 re   (3.10)
141 .2ct N i ln   + s 
  rw  

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3.2.2 Production Rate Decline

Equation (3.6) can be expressed as:

dpt
− b( pt − p wf ) = c (3.11)
dt
By separation of variables, Eq (2.11) can be integrated

t pt
dpt
−  bdt =  (3.12)
0 p0
( p t − p c
wf
)
to yield an equation for reservoir pressure decline:

pt = p wf + p0 − p wf
c
( c
)e −bt
(3.13)

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 Substituting Eq (3.13) into Eq (3.2) gives well production rate decline
equation:

kh( p0 − p wf ) c
−bt
q= e
  0.472 re  
(3.14)

141 .2 Bo  ln   + s 
  rw  

or

bct N i −bt
q= ( p0 − p wf ) e
c (3.15)

Bo
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which is the exponential decline model commonly used for production
decline analysis of solution-gas-drive reservoirs. In practice, the
following form of Eq (3.15) is used:

−bt
q = qi e (3.16)

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3.2.3 Cumulative Production

Integration of Eq (3.16) over time gives an expression for the

cumulative oil production since decline of

t t
N p =  qdt =  qi e dt −bt (3.17)

0 0

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i.e.,

qi
N p = 1− e
b
−bt
( ) (3.18)

Since q = qi e −bt , Eq (3.18) becomes

N p = (qi − q )
1 (3.19)

b
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3.2.4 Determination of Decline Rate

The constant b is called the continuous decline rate. Its

value can be determined from production history data.

If production rate and time data are available, the b

value can be obtained based on the slope of the
straight line on a semi-log plot. In fact, taking logarithm
of Eq (3.16) gives:

ln (q ) = ln (qi ) − bt (3.20)

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which implies that the data should form a straight line with a
slope of b on the log(q) versus t plot, if exponential decline is
the right model. Picking up any two points, (t1, q1) and (t2, q2),
on the straight line will allow analytical determination of b
value because

(3.21)
ln (q1 ) = ln (qi ) − bt1

and
(3.22)
ln (q2 ) = ln (qi ) − bt2
give
1  q1 
b= ln  
(t2 − t1 )  q2  (3.23)

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 If production rate and cumulative production data are
available, the b value can be obtained based on the
slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot. In fact,
rearranging Eq (3.19) yields:

q = qi − bN p (3.24)

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Picking up any two points, (Np1, q1) and (Np2, q2), on the
straight line will allow analytical determination of b value
because

q1 = qi − bN p1 (3.25)

and

q2 = qi − bN p 2 (3.26)

give

q1 − q2
b= (3.27)
N p 2 − N p1
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Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have different
units such month -1 and year -1. The following relation
can be derived:

ba = 12bm = 365bd
(3.28)

where ba, bm, and bd are annual, monthly,

and daily decline rates.
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3.2.5 Effective Decline Rate
Because the exponential function is not easy to use in hand
calculations, traditionally the effective decline rate has been used.

Since e− x  1 − x
for small x-values based on Taylor’s expansion,
−b
e  1− b
holds true for small values of b. The b is substituted by b’, the effective
decline rate, in field applications. Thus Eq (3.16) becomes

q = q (1− b')
t
(3.29)
i
Again, it can be shown that
q 2 q3 qn
= = ...... = = 1 − b'
q1 q2 qn−1
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.
Depending on the unit of time t, the b’ can have
different units such month-1 and year-1. The
following relation can be derived:

(1 − b'a ) = (1 − b'm ) 12
= (1 − b'd )
365 (3.30)

where b’a, b’m, and b’d are annual,

monthly, and daily effective decline
rates.

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Example Problem 3-1:

Given that a well has declined from 100 stb/day to 96 stb/day during a one-
month period, use the exponential decline model to perform the
following tasks:

a) Predict the production rate after 11 more months

b) Calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year

c) Project the yearly production for the well for the next 5 years.

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3.3 Harmonic Decline
When d = 1, Eq (3.1) yields differential equation for a harmonic
decline model:

1 dq
= −bq (3.31)

q dt

which can be integrated as

q0
q= (3.32)

1 + bt
where q0 is the production rate at t = 0.
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Expression for the cumulative production is obtained by integration:

which gives:
t
N p =  qdt
0

N p = ln (1 + bt ) (3.33)
q0
b
Combining Eqs (3.32) and (3.33) gives

N p = ln (q0 ) − ln (q )
q0
(3.34)
b

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3.4 Hyperbolic Decline
When 0 < d < 1, integration of Eq (3.1) gives:

q t
dq
q q1+d = −0 bdt (3.35)
0

q0
q= (3.36)
(1+ dbt)
which results in 1/ d

q0
or q= a (3.37)
 b 
1 + t 
 a 
where a = 1/d.
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Expression for the cumulative production is obtained by integration:

t
N p =  qdt which gives:

aq0   b  
1−a

Np = 1 − 1 + t  
b(a − 1)   a  
(3.38)

Combining Eqs (2.37) and (2.38) gives

a   b 
Np =  q 0 − q 1 + t  
b(a − 1) 
(3.39)
 a 
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3.5 Model Identification
Production data can be plotted in different ways to identify a
representative decline model.
If the plot of log(q) versus t shows a straight line (Fig. 3.1),
according to Eq. (3.20), the decline data follow an
exponential decline model. q

t
Figure 3-1: A Semi log plot of q versus t indicating an exponential decline
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If the plot of q versus Np shows a straight line (Fig.
3.2), according to Eq. (3.24), an exponential decline
model should be adopted.

Np

q
Figure 3-2: A plot of Np versus q indicating an exponential decline
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If the plot of log(q) versus log(t) shows a straight line (Fig. 3.3),
according to Eq. (3.32), the decline data follow a harmonic
decline model.
q

t
Figure 3-3: A plot of log(q) versus log(t) indicating a harmonic decline
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 If the plot of Np versus log(q) shows a straight line
(Fig. 3.4), according to Eq. (3.34), the harmonic decline
model should be used.
Np

q
Figure 3-4: A plot of Np versus log(q) indicating a harmonic decline
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If no straight line is seen in these plots, the hyperbolic decline
model may be verified by plotting the relative decline rate
defined by Eq. (3.1). Figure 3.5 shows such a plot.

q
−
qt
ne
Decli
rm onic
Ha
b olic D ecline
Hyper

Exponential Decline

q
Figure 3-5: A plot of relative decline rate versus production rate
2022-2023 Nabaz Ali Production Engineering II 32
3.6 Determination of Model Parameters
Once a decline model is identified, the model parameters a and
b can be determined by fitting the data to the selected model. For
the exponential decline model, the b value can be estimated
based on the slope of the straight line in the plot of log(q) versus t
(Eq. [3.23]). The b value can also be determined based on the
slope of the straight line in the plot of q versus Np (Eq. [3.27]).

For the harmonic decline model, the b value can be estimated

based on the slope of the straight line in the plot of log(q)
versus log(t) or Eq. (3.32): The b value can also be estimated based
q0 on the slope of the straight line in the plot
−1 of Np versus log(q) (Eq. [3.34]).
q1
b= (3.40) For the hyperbolic decline model, determination
of a- and b-values is of a little tedious. The
t1 procedure is shown in Figure 3-6.

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 1. Select points (t1, q1)
and (t2, q2)

q3 = q1 q 2
2. Read t3 at q
 b  t + t − 2t 3
3. Calculate   = 1 2 2
a t 3 − t1t 2
4. Find q0 at t = 0 1

5. Pick up any point (t*, q*) q3 (t*, q*)

6. Use q 
log 0  2
q* =
q0
a=  q* 
 b 
a
 b 
1 +  t*  log1 +  t* 
 a   a 
t3
b
7. Finally b =  a
a
t
Figure 3-6: Procedure for determining a and b values

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3.7 Illustrative Examples
For the data given in Table 3-1, identify a suitable decline model, determine model
parameters, and project production rate until a marginal rate of 25 stb/day is
reached. Table 3-1: Production Data
t (Month) q (STB/D) t (Month) q (STB/D)

1.00 904.84 13.00 272.53

2.00 818.73 14.00 246.60
3.00 740.82 15.00 223.13
4.00 670.32 16.00 201.90
5.00 606.53 17.00 182.68
6.00 548.81 18.00 165.30
7.00 496.59 19.00 149.57
8.00 449.33 20.00 135.34
9.00 406.57 21.00 122.46
10.00 367.88 22.00 110.80
11.00 332.87 23.00 100.26
12.00 301.19 24.00 90.72
2022-2023 Nabaz Ali Production Engineering II 35
Solution:
A plot of log(q) versus t is presented in Figure 3-7 which
shows a straight line. According to Eq (3.20), the exponential
decline model is applicable. This is further evidenced by the
relative decline rate shown in Figure 3-8.
Select points on the trend line:
t 1= 5 months, q1 = 607 STB/D
t 2= 20 months, q 2 = 135 STB/D

Decline rate is calculated with Eq (3.23):

1  135 
b= ln   = 0.1 1/month
(5 − 20 )  607 

2022-2023 Nabaz Ali Production Engineering II 36

Projected production rate profile is shown
in Figure 3-9.
10000

1000
q (STB/D)

100

10

1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
t (month)

Figure 3-7: A plot of log(q) versus t showing an exponential decline

2022-2023 Nabaz Ali Production Engineering II 37
 0.15
0.14
0.13
- q/ t/q (Month-1)

0.12
0.11
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
3 203 403 603 803 1003

q (STB/D)

Figure 3-8: Relative decline rate plot showing exponential decline

2022-2023 Nabaz Ali Production Engineering II 38
 1000
900
800
700
q (STB/D)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 10 20 30 40
t (month)

Figure 3-9: Projected production rate by an exponential decline model

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