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    Proba Midterm ISE 2018

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    Dương Ng
    This document is the final exam for a stochastic model course. It contains 6 questions testing concepts like probability, conditional probability, Markov chains, and expected values. Students are given 120 minutes to complete the exam which is worth a total of 100% of their grade for the course. It covers topics like binomial distributions, coin flipping probabilities, Markov processes, and determining probabilities and expected values for stochastic systems.

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    Proba Midterm ISE 2018

    Uploaded by

    Dương Ng
    20 views3 pages
    This document is the final exam for a stochastic model course. It contains 6 questions testing concepts like probability, conditional probability, Markov chains, and expected values. Students are given 120 minutes to complete the exam which is worth a total of 100% of their grade for the course. It covers topics like binomial distributions, coin flipping probabilities, Markov processes, and determining probabilities and expected values for stochastic systems.

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    OR2 midterm 2018

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    Proba_Midterm_ISE_2018

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    This document is the final exam for a stochastic model course. It contains 6 questions testing concepts like probability, conditional probability, Markov chains, and expected values. Students are given 120 minutes to complete the exam which is worth a total of 100% of their grade for the course. It covers topics like binomial distributions, coin flipping probabilities, Markov processes, and determining probabilities and expected values for stochastic systems.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    20 views3 pages

    Proba Midterm ISE 2018

    Uploaded by

    Dương Ng
    This document is the final exam for a stochastic model course. It contains 6 questions testing concepts like probability, conditional probability, Markov chains, and expected values. Students are given 120 minutes to complete the exam which is worth a total of 100% of their grade for the course. It covers topics like binomial distributions, coin flipping probabilities, Markov processes, and determining probabilities and expected values for stochastic systems.

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    You are on page 1of 3

    THE INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY (IU) Course: Stochastic Model

    Department of Industrial System Engineering

    FINAL EXAMINATION

    STOCHASTIC MODEL Duration:


    120 minutes
    Head of Department of Lecturer: Student ID: Date:
    Industrial & Systems 3 Apr, 2018
    Engineering

    Name:

    Assoc Prof. Ho Thanh Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc


    Phong

    INSTRUCTIONS:
    1. This is an open book examination. No laptops, PDA.
    2. Use of calculator is allowed; discussion and material transfer are strictly prohibited.

    Total pages: 3 (including this page)

    PART I (100 %)

    Question 1: (20 pts)


    There are 15 tennis balls in a box, of which 9 have 
not previously been used. Three of the balls are
    randomly chosen, played with, and then returned to the box. Later, another 3 balls are randomly chosen
    from the box.

    a) Find the probability that in the 1st pick, the number of balls that has never been used is 0,1,2,3.
    b) Find the probability that none of these balls in the 2nd pick has ever been used. 


    Question 2: (15 pts)


    a) A gambler has a fair coin and a two-headed coin in his pocket. He selects one of the coins at random;
    when he flips it, it shows heads. What is the probability that it is the fair coin?

    (b) Suppose that he flips the same coin a second time and, again, it shows heads. Now what is the
    probability that it is the fair coin? 


    (c) Suppose that he flips the same coin a third time and it shows tails. Now what is the probability that it
    is the fair coin? 


    Stochastic Model – Final Exam 3, Apr, 2018 1


    THE INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY (IU) Course: Stochastic Model
    Department of Industrial System Engineering

    Question 3: (15 pts)


    A coin having probability .8 of landing on heads is flipped. A observes the result—either heads or tails—
    and rushes off to tell B. However, with probability .4, A will have forgotten the result by the time he
    reaches B. If A has forgotten, then, rather than admitting this to B, he is equally likely to tell B that the
    coin landed on heads or that it landed tails. (If he does remember, then he tells B the correct result.

    a) What is the probability that B is told that the coin landed on heads?
    b) What is the probability that B is told the correct result?
    c) Given that B is told that the coin landed on heads, what is the probability that it did in fact land on
    heads? 


    Question 4: (10 pts)


    Find the expected processing time for finishing this project
    P(Fail)=0.4

    P(Pass)=0.3 P(Pass)=0.6
    Start Take 3 days Inspector 1 Take 7 days Inspector 2 End

    P(Fail)=0.7

    Figure 1

    Question 5: (20pts)
    Given that

    Cy on ROI
    f(x, y) = {
    0, otherwise

    a) Find C so that f(x,y) is a probability density function (7 pts)


    b) Determine the conditional distribution function fX|Y (x|y) (7 pts)
    c) Find the probability on the region ABCFEO (7 pts)

    Stochastic Model – Final Exam 3, Apr, 2018 2


    THE INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY (IU) Course: Stochastic Model
    Department of Industrial System Engineering

    Question 6: (20 pts)


    The customer demands for a specific product on a market can be classified as: high, medium and low.
    When customer demand is high, it follows Poisson distribution with rate 7 thousands per year. When
    demand is medium or low, it follows Poisson distribution with rate 4 thousands and 1 thousands per year,
    respectively. Following matrix gives the transition probability between each type of demands.
    High Medium Low
    High 0.5 0.3 0.2
    Medium 0.3 0.4 0.3
    Low 0.2 0.4 0.4

    a) Find the transition probability matrix after 2 years (5pts)


    b) Assumed we are at year 0 and the customer demand is high. Find the expected of total demand
    after 2 years. (10pts)
    c) Based on above data company will decide whether they should invest on a project. This project
    will last for 2 years. According to the plan, this project requires the minimum of 7.8 thousand
    demands so as to not suffer loss. Assumed that we are currently at year 0 and the demand of the
    market is not determined. Which case of demand in year 0 should we invest on this project? (10
    pts)

    GOOD LUCKS!

    Stochastic Model – Final Exam 3, Apr, 2018 3

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