Online lecture

Flood Disasters Resilience and Sustainability under Climate Change

Flood Disasters Resilience and Sustainability

under Climate Change

Toshio KOIKE
Executive director, International Centre for Water Hazards and Risk Management (ICHARM),
Public Works Research Institute (PWRI)
Adjunct Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies(GRIPS)
Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo
Chair, River Council of Japan, National Land Development Council
Council Member, Science Council of Japan, Cabinet Office of Japan
 1896 1964 1997 2

•Birth of modern river •Enactment of water •Improvement and conservation

administration system use regulations of river environment
•Incorporate the opinions of
local residents

Flood Flood
Control Control Water Use

Flood
Control +

Water Use Environment

Planning system
Basic river River improvement
River projects
management policy plan
 3
Overall Losses for Natural Loss Events Worldwide 1980-2018

Number of Events
Worldwide
1980-2018
Water-related
Disasters
flood

cyclone
drought

earthquake, tsunami
2021 March: Australia
July: Germany/Belgium, China, India
December: Malaysia
 Recurrent Water-related Disasters in Japan 4
Events and Countermeasures
Oct., 2013 Nov., 2014
Izu Oshima Island（Sediment） Amendment: Sediment Disasters
• 824mm/24hrs (Typhoon) Prevention Act
• Human Loss: 39 Jan., 2015：
• evacuation warning Policy Vision: Disaster Prevention
and Mitigation against a New Stage
Aug., 2014
Hiroshima City (Sediment) May, 2015
• 121mm/hr (Typhoon, Frontal Line) Amendment: Flood Risk Management
• Human Loss: 77 Act
• evacuation warning, land use • Probable Maximum Rainfall for Life-
Saving
Sep., 2015 Dec., 2015
Kanto & Tohoku (Bank Breach) Policy Vision: Rebuilding Flood-
• 551mm/24hrs (Typhoons) Conscious Societies: Class A Rivers
• Human Loss：20 • Raising public awareness
• evacuated by helicopter: 1343 • Structural measures for crisis
and by boat: 2919 management
Aug., 2016 Jan., 2017
Hokkaido & Tohoku (Bank Policy Vision: Rebuilding Flood-
Breach and Sediment) Conscious Societies: Class B Rivers
• 251mm/72hrs (Typhoons) • Life-saving of physical handicaps
• Human Loss: 31 • Local socio-economical continuity
• evacuation of physical handicaps May, 2017
• local socio-economic impact Amendment: Flood Risk Management
June, 2017 Act
Northern Kyushu (Sediment) • Mega-Flood Management Committee
• 299mm/6hrs (Frontal Line) • Evacuation planning and drilling for
• Human Loss: 44 handicap-accessible facilities
• sediment and flood complex • Recovery by the national government 4
 Recurrent Water-related Disasters in Japan 5
Events and Countermeasures

Seasonal rain front, July 2018 Typhoon 19, October 2019

Record high rainfall at 124 sites Record high rainfall at 120 sites

2,581 Sediment Disasters 952

18.010 Houses Completely 33,332
or Partially Collapsed
27 Banks Breached 142
7,173 Houses Inundated 8,129
above the First Floor Level
245 Missing or Dead 107
New River Planning and New River Management 6

66
 New River Planning: Observed Data and Climate Change Projections 7

Climate change projection by MEXT, JMA and ME.

“Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change” (d4PDF)
• global：60km, 6000yr in past, 3240yr under 2d increase, 5400yr under 4d increase.
• Around Japan: 20km and 5km, 6000yr in past, 3240yr under 2d increase, 5400yr
under 4d increase.
Data is available from DIAS

Revising Plans Considering Climate Change

by the National Land Development Council in April 2021
Region short

Hokkaido discharge frequency

Kyushu 1.2 times 2 times

Others 1.4 times 4 times

<Flood management design based on the cutting-edge science and technology>

New River Management: River Basin Disaster Resilience and Sustainability by All
 9
“Basin-wide Flood Management”

①flood ③disaster- ②reducing

prevention resilience exposure
Working
together Localizing
with every Storm water retention and Cooperation inundation areas
stakeholder retarding by every with water Sharp reduction of by newly setting
stakeholders including users economic losses and making
businesses and households maximum use of
banking structure

The
Comprehensive
Flood Control
Extension Plan River works Promotion of Residential
Flood to a by river by river proactive evacuation promotion to
nationwide administrators administrators by people low-risk areas
management scale and local
by river governments
administrators in rapidly
urbanized areas.

basin river flood plain

Measures up to now Measures to be implemented

River Basin Disaster Resilience and Sustainability by All
Governance Finance
Amendment of related nine acts
 Unanimous passage Promoting National Resilience
about 70B$ from 2018 to 2020

Accelerating National Resilience

about 150B$ from 2021 to 2025

The Lower House Budget Committee Science

February 2021
Science Council Japan

The Upper House Land Infrastructure

Committee, April 2021 10
 Recommendations 11
1. The scientific community should develop
the Online Synthesis System (OSS) to
promote DRR and Sustainable
Development.
2. The scientific community should foster
Facilitators.

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 Society 12
On-site Stakeholders Fresh learning by Socio-economic survey data
integrated scientific
knowledge and statistics with large variety
Filling Gap User needs and local and strict confidentiality.
data and knowledge
• trust-based relationship Observation,
• causes and structure of on- monitoring and
site problem
• local implications of data prediction data with
and information Maximum Online Synthesis large volume & high
• goals, possible solutions, Use System for throughput.
and governance Sustainability and
• on-site stakeholders’ Resilience
responsibilities (OSS-SR) Functions
• convincing • Exploration, collection, archive
and search of scientific
Facilitator information in mother tongues
not just as • Prediction and simulation, and
“a master of ceremony" visualization
but as • Data integration, information
"catalytic beings” fusion
New
perspective • Coordination of various
Supporting consilience disciplines
by providing information • Mutual risk communication
Science between society and science
Community community
Proposing a new framework
 Recommendations 13
1. The scientific community should develop
the Online Synthesis System (OSS) to
promote DRR and Sustainable
Development.
2. The scientific community should foster
Facilitators.
3. On-site stakeholders, in cooperation with
Facilitators and effectively taking
advantage of the OSS, should develop
integrated scenarios for DRR and
Environment/Development and execute
concrete measures toward enhancement
of disaster resilience and achievement of
SDGs.

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 End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation
Science & Technology Governance

Scientific Approach Engineering Approach Socio-economical Approach

Climate Integrated Water Adaptation Monitoring

Model Observed simulation, Extreme evaluation
Outputs Data Sets prediction & events options
management
system Early
warning

Impact assessment
Climatology flood Environment

Implementation
Check irrigation Innovative
technology

Decision
making
hydro power Socio- - Flood
Down- economics
scaling water supply control
- quality
water quality Culture & control
Bias history
Correction Urban sewage Land use
ground water Regime Contingency
Quantifying shift Planning
Uncertainty drought

Finance
 Recommendations 15
1. The scientific community should develop
the Online Synthesis System (OSS) to
promote DRR and Sustainable
Development.
2. The scientific community should foster
Facilitators.
3. On-site stakeholders, in cooperation with
Facilitators and effectively taking
advantage of the OSS, should develop
integrated scenarios for DRR and
Environment/Development and execute
concrete measures toward enhancement
of disaster resilience and achievement of
SDGs.
4. International scientific organizations,
UN/international agencies and
international aid agencies should support
the development of the OSS, Facilitators
and integrated scenarios for each country
chrome- and region to take actions.
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 Overall Human Loss Events
Worldwide 1980-2018 The 2030 Agenda

We are determined to take

the bold and transformative steps
which are urgently needed to
shift the world onto
a sustainable and resilient path.

Overall Economic Loss Events Economic losses (relative to GDP) caused

Worldwide 1980-2018 by climate-related disasters, 1998-2017 (%)

Upper
middle
16
 The Fourth Asia Pacific Water Summit
Kumamoto. Japan, April 23-24, 2022

Yoshiro Mori, President of the APWF Emperor and Empress of JAPAN Antonio Guterres, UNSG Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister, Japan
and former Prime Minister, Japan
18 Heads of State and Government, including Presidents, Prime Ministers and Deputy Presidents,
as well as 19 government ministers, who attended either in person, virtually, or via video message.

Kumamoto Declaration
• Require transformation into quality-oriented societies that are resilient, sustainable, and inclusive.
• Improve governance, close the financial gap and appeal to the science and technology community.
• Explore what role science and technology should play in the cross-sectoral decision-making of leaders.
Parallel
Integration Sessions: Governance, Finance, Science and Technology Overall
Parallel Science and Technology Integration Session Integration
Session l１
Parallel
Session ２
Parallel Session
Session 3
Parallel
Session 4
Parallel
Session 5
Parallel
Session 6
Parallel
Session
Parallel
7
Session
Session8 9 Chair’s
Special Session: SIDS Summary
Special Session: Showcase
 The Fourth Asia Pacific Water Summit
Kumamoto. Japan, April 23-24, 2022

Yoshiro Mori, President of the APWF Emperor and Empress of JAPAN Antonio Guterres, UNSG Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister, Japan
and former Prime Minister, Japan
18 Heads of State and Government, including Presidents, Prime Ministers and Deputy Presidents,
as well as 19 government ministers, who attended either in person, virtually, or via video message.

Kumamoto Declaration
• Require transformation into quality-oriented societies that are resilient, sustainable, and inclusive.
• Improve governance, close the financial gap and appeal to the science and technology community.
• Explore what role science and technology should play in the cross-sectoral decision-making of leaders.

Chair’s Summary
• Promote water cycle consilience by accelerating the Open Science policy, particularly focusing on
observation, modeling and data integration;
• Foster "Facilitators," that is, catalytic beings who can lead the way toward resolving problems by
providing professional advice on-site using a broad range of scientific and indigenous knowledge;
• Work together beyond disciplines and sectors among different levels while taking an end-to-end
approach.