Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

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Resources Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/resourpol

Oil prices volatility and economic performance during COVID-19 and

financial crises of 2007–2008
Yang Yu, SongLin Guo *, XiaoChen Chang
School of Finance, Renmin University of China, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: We examine the time-frequency dynamics of spillovers between oil price shocks and economic performance
Oil price shocks globally. We use both time and frequency domains simultaneously to find the response of macroeconomic
Economic performance performance to changes in oil prices during the global financial and pandemic crises. Using Wavelet analysis, this
Global financial crises
seminal study explores the connectedness between oil price shocks and economic activities during COVID-19 and
COVID-19
Wavelet analysis
the financial crises of 2008. This study finds that both economic activities and oil prices have shown high power
during the period of global financial crises. The recently COVID-19 outbreak indicates significant volatility in
economic activities and oil prices during the period of crisis. Moreover, we observe a strong interconnectedness
between oil prices and economic activities during global financial crises and COVID-19 crises. We argue that a
shock to oil prices in global financial crises and the COVID-19 outbreak has serious repercussions for economic
activities. The highest total connectedness between oil prices and economic activities is observed during the
COVID-19 outbreak, which advocates that the speed of information transmission amid oil prices and economic
activities is greater in the era of the COVID-19 outbreak as compared to other global financial crises. The results
of this study have significant implications for policymakers.

1. Introduction COVID-19 outbreak has strongly affected the volatility and returns in the
oil market.
The epidemic coronavirus disease has produced devastating effects As the world’s largest commodities market, crude oil is a critical
globally. The virus brings a series of chain reactions such as a surge in component of the global oil price system, and benchmark crudes are a
unemployment, a drop in oil prices, and a decline in the stock markets vital component of that system. The price of crude oil has a significant
(Su et al., 2020a, 2021a). The novel coronavirus has had an unprece­ influence on the global economy. On the other hand, oil shocks have a
dented global impact. This lethal virus has had a significant impact on a number of key implications for asset allocation and portfolio risk man­
large number of countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) re­ agement in international stock markets (Mensi, 2019; Umar et al.,
ported 226.84 million confirmed coronavirus cases and 4.67 million 2021b; Wang et al., 2021). The natural resources commodity markets
people losing their lives as of September 20, 2021. Governments are are considered as more efficient in sending a shock to other sectors of the
attempting to combat the virus by introducing extensive diagnostic economy. Hence, natural resources commodity markets are more con­
testing and social distancing recommendations. The goal is to place nected with financial, stock, and equity markets. Moreover, it is recog­
human health at the top of the priority list. The COVID-19 pandemic has nized that the natural resources commodities show extremely volatile
badly affected the economies. Among others, the oil market is the worst behavior in the period of crisis. The financial emergencies and pan­
affected market. A considerable level of uncertainty in the oil market demics have encouraged researchers and policymakers to investigate the
added further challenges to policymakers and investors around the dynamics of spillovers oil prices and macroeconomic activities (Foglia
globe. Since there is strong nexus between oil and other financial mar­ and Angelini, 2020a; Khan et al., 2020; Sheng et al., 2020a). The spill­
kets, the spillover of oil shocks to other financial markets is considered over of natural resource commodities prices to other markets tends to be
more persistent during the COVID-19 outbreak. Hence, strong volatility more persistent during the crisis period, primarily due to the strong
has been observed in other markets. According to (Narayan, 2020), the linkages between the farmer and the latter. On the same analogy, it is

* Corresponding author. 59 Zhongguancun Street, Haidian District, Beijing, China.

E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Guo).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102531
Received 29 September 2021; Received in revised form 2 December 2021; Accepted 18 December 2021
Available online 22 December 2021
0301-4207/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Y. Yu et al. Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

argued that oil market spillovers to macroeconomic activities tend to be The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: the next section
more persistent. However, the interconnectedness among the natural provides a review of relevant literature covering all of the variables used
resource market and macroeconomic activities has not been investigated in the study; Section-3 presents details of the methodology; Section-4
so far. The visible co-movement in oil prices and macroeconomic ac­ presents empirical findings and their discussion. The concluding re­
tivities has attracted the attention of researchers to investigate the marks are given in the last section.
interconnectedness between oil prices and macroeconomic
performance. 2. Literature review
It is widely recognized that oil shocks and their prices are strongly
related to economic growth. Many macroeconomic aggregates have The literature on the impact of energy commodities on output is well
been suggested to be unstable as a result of oil price variations in documented (Ahmad and Du, 2017; Aydin and Esen, 2016; Kilian, 2008;
different countries. As a result of this significance, it has been stated that Li et al., 2020; Mustapha and Fagge, 2015; Nasreen et al., 2020; Tang
oil price is more unpredictable and unexpected (Bhowmik et al., 2016; et al., 2016; Yan et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2021). Energy is the engine of
Qin et al., 2020; Umar et al., 2021c). A surge in oil prices is attached economic growth (Tang et al., 2016; Umar et al., 2020, 2021a), and Oil,
with increased costs and prices of petroleum products, which in turn which contributes one-third of global energy consumption, is considered
decreases productivity and, hence, ends up with low economic growth. the main energy source. In recent years, energy consumption, predom­
Hence, fluctuations in the price of oil have a detrimental impact on inant by oil, has been increasing at an extraordinary speed. However,
economic growth. Since most sectors of the economy, such as transport, due to the volatile behavior of oil during the period of crises and the
power, and industrial sectors, heavily depend on oil consumption, a strong connectedness of the oil with other markets, the oil sector has
shock in oil prices and subsequent decrease in its consumption strongly significantly affected the macroeconomic activities in the coronavirus
affects major sectors of the economy. Moreover, it is also recognized that pandemic. The connection between the oil market and other markets has
uncertainty is bad for the consumer, investors, and economy. The oil been widely examined in the literature (Awartani et al., 2016; Bibi et al.,
market behaves differently in a period of crisis. For instance, in financial 2021; Cong et al., 2008; Foglia and Angelini, 2020a; Gu et al., 2020; Ji
emergencies, the oil prices were dropped from $150 to $40. However, et al., 2021; Maghyereh et al., 2016; Reboredo, 2015; Sadorsky, 2012;
the prices started to rise again as soon as the recovery started. Similarly, Su et al., 2021b, 2020b). Different researchers have examined the
the oil prices dropped remarkably during the COVID-19 outbreak, which connectedness of oil prices with different markets, such as financial
in turn badly affected the revenue of key oil producers (Yarovaya et al., markets (Awartani et al., 2016), clean energy markets (Foglia and
2021). A high level of volatility is observed in the oil market, and the Angelini, 2020a; Reboredo, 2015), the stock market (Nasreen et al.,
prices cross the threshold level. 2020), equity markets (Awartani et al., 2016). The nexus between oil
It is recognized that the association between oil price and economic prices and macroeconomic performance has attained massive impor­
growth is not constant throughout business cycles and crises. Since the tance from researchers and policymakers during the last several years
spillovers effects of volatility between oil and other macroeconomic (Sadorsky, 2012). Additionally, the volatility of oil prices receives a
activities become more important due to a considerable high level of great deal of attention in the academic literature. The record high
uncertainty in markets; hence, it is imperative to examine the connect­ volatility in oil prices and correspondingly spillovers to other markers
edness between oil prices and GDP in the era of financial emergencies has increased the attention of researchers to work on the dynamics of
and COVID-19 outbreak. This work adds to the body of knowledge by these spillovers (Okonjo-Iweala, 2009). stated that oil prices are more
using time-frequency data of oil prices and economic activities with a volatile than any other products, resulting in unfavorable consequences
wide-ranging coverage in the time dimension (November 2007 till on the real product side of the equation.
November 2020). Our dataset includes the period from 2007 to 2020, The global recession of the 1970s laid a solid base for future research
which allows us to explore the effect of the global financial crises on the connectedness between oil price changes and macroeconomic
(2007–2008) and COVID-19 outbreak (2019–2020). This research ex­ performance. The seminal work of (Rasche and Tatom, 1977) has
plores the interconnectedness of oil prices and macroeconomic activities received immense importance. The researchers discovered a substantial
from a global perspective. Because fluctuations in oil prices significantly link between oil price changes and macroeconomic activity. A number of
impact macroeconomic performance, assessing this impact and projec­ different research have been conducted to look into the connections
ting how sensitive economic performance during the crises is to these between oil price changes and macroeconomic activities. (Darby, 1982;
changes is critical. The aim is to find the reaction of economic perfor­ Hamilton, 2009a; Hooker, 1996). These studies explored whether the
mance to changes in oil prices during the global financial and pandemic global recession of the 1970s contributed to oil shocks and corre­
crises. Using Wavelet analysis, this study is the first attempt to examine spondingly economic activities. The existing literature employed two
the interlinked between oil price volatility and economic performance distinct methodologies to cover the dynamics of oil price shocks and
during COVID-19 and the financial crises of 2008. We use time-series economic activities, i.e., findings of transmission mechanism channels
variables of GDP and oil prices to analyze the time-frequency de­ and empirical investigation. At the start of the 21st century, the world
pendency of economic activities and oil prices from a global perspective. had seen another episode of oil price shocks. Correspondingly, several
The purpose is to check the impact of oil shocks in global crises (such as studies were carried out to examine the movements of oil prices with
COVID-19 and financial crises of 2008) on economic activities. The re­ macroeconomic activities (Du et al., 2010). The world has observed
sults of this study have great implications for policymakers. Using another peak in oil prices during the global financial crises of 2008,
Wavelet analysis, this study finds that both economic activities and oil which further attracted researchers to find out the connectedness be­
prices have shown high power during the period of global financial tween oil price shocks and economic performance (Essaadi and Bouta­
crises. The recently COVID-19 outbreak indicates significant volatility in har, 2008; Hamilton, 2009a). The recent COVID-19 outbreak has
economic activities and oil prices during the period of crisis. Moreover, strongly affected the volatility and returns in the oil market and hence,
we observe a strong interconnectedness between oil prices and eco­ attained enormous attention from researchers to explore the dynamics
nomic activities in the era of crises. We argue that oil prices volatility has of spillovers between oil price shocks and other markets (Foglia and
serious repercussions for economic activities, particularly in global cri­ Angelini, 2020a; Sharif et al., 2020; Sheng et al., 2020a). On the inci­
ses. The highest connection between oil prices and economic activities is dence of the COVID-19 outbreak, considerable research has been carried
observed when comparing the COVID-19 outbreak to other global out in the past couple of years (Ashraf, 2020; Bouri et al., 2020; Dutta
financial crises. This suggests that the flow of information transmission et al., 2020; Rizwan et al., 2020). (Bouri et al., 2020) investigated the
between oil prices and economic activities is greater during the COVID- power of uncertainty caused by COVID-19 and other infectious diseases
19 outbreak than during other global financial crises. in affecting the volatility of oil returns. Using a newspaper-based index,

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Y. Yu et al. Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

the authors found volatility in oil returns during the COVID-19 outbreak. and macroeconomic activities are specifically more important for short
Moreover, the authors found that transmittable diseases have a strong time horizons. Nevertheless, in particular, two periods have gotten
impact on equity and oil markets. Similarly (Dutta et al., 2020), find that much attention: the period of global financial crises and the COVID-19
the COVID-19 outbreak has significantly affected the global energy crises. It is widely acknowledged that severe oil price changes, com­
markets (Foglia and Angelini, 2020a). examined the volatility inter­ bined with unfavorable oil supply shocks, were the causes of global
connectedness of oil with renewable energy firms in the COVID-19 era. macroeconomic volatility and stagflation during the crisis period.
Using volatility spillover models, the authors find evidences of strong Including both time periods of crises enable us to compare the volatility
nexus between markets in the era of the COVID-19 outbreak (Le et al., and heterogeneity of key variables in global financial crises with the
2021). identifies the influencing variables to the historic oil price COVID-19 outbreak. As for the empirical, analytical framework employs
volatility during the COVID-19 epidemic. The results of the ARDL the wavelet transform method to examine the relationships between oil
technique show that the major contributors to decline in the oil price in prices and economic activity from November 2007 to November 2020.
US are emergence of COVID-19 cases, uncertainty, and anticipated
volatility. 3. Methodology
Additionally, oil futures speculation is an important factor respon­
sible for the collapse of the oil markets. Our expectations were met with 3.1. Theoretical basis for the linkage among oil prices and economic
the results. The authors suggest that with the eradication of new coro­ growth
navirus, the work might increase oil demand. According to (Bildirici
et al., 2020), oil prices have experienced unprecedented and abrupt The theoretical underpinning regarding the association between oil
swings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors studied the presence prices and output is based on the idea that a rise in oil prices will in­
of nonlinear behavior in oil prices throughout the pandemic and crease manufacturing costs and higher pricing for other goods and ser­
contemporaneous war. Oil prices demonstrate erratic behavior, ac­ vices. Therefore, fluctuations in oil prices can significantly impact the
cording to the experiments. In addition, the current research provides a prices of other commodities, and as a result, play a significant influence
new hybrid modeling strategy for analyzing oil price volatility (Jeris and in the association between oil prices and output (Akinsola and
Nath, 2020). tried to answer how the UK’s policy uncertainties are Odhiambo, 2020). It has been demonstrated that fluctuations in crude
affected by the spread of the coronavirus. Using the ARDL model, the prices are a major contributing factor to financial turmoil and weak
authors found a strong interconnectedness between COVID-19 cases and economic performance (Akinsola and Odhiambo, 2020). Increased costs
UK economic policy uncertainty. The relationship, however, does not and prices of petroleum goods are linked to an increase in oil prices,
hold in the long run (Aloui et al., 2020). used structural VAR model to which reduces productivity and, as a result, results in sluggish economic
assess the influence of coronavirus shocks on the energy futures markets, growth. As a result of the increase in oil prices, there is an increase in the
specifically on the S&P GS Indexes for crude oil and natural gas. The costs and prices of petroleum products, which in turn lowers produc­
authors found that energy commodities respond to COVID-19 shocks in tivity and results in lower economic growth. As a result, fluctuations in
different ways over time, depending on fundamentals, behavioral, and the price of oil have a detrimental impact on economic growth. Hence,
psychological aspects (Abdelsalam, 2020). investigate the extreme oil price shocks have a detrimental impact on economic growth. Because
impact of oil price volatility on the economic performance in the MENA most areas of the economy, such as transportation, power, and
countries. The unequal and dynamic connection between oil price and manufacturing, rely largely on oil consumption, a spike in oil prices and
economic performance is also investigated. In addition, each MENA consequent drop in consumption substantially affect major sectors of the
oil-exporting and the oil-importing country is subjected to a thorough economy. Furthermore, it is well acknowledged that uncertainty is
examination. The author found that changes in oil prices have a positive harmful for consumers, investors, and the economy. During the period of
effect on volatility in oil-exporting countries. crises, the spillover of natural resource commodities prices to other
To sum up, the existing literature on the connectedness between the markets tends to be more persistent, primarily due to the strong linkages
oil market and macroeconomic activities is rich. Several studies have between the farmer and the latter. On the same analogy, it is argued that
been carried out since (Hamilton, 2009b) pioneering study, but none oil market spillovers to macroeconomic activities tend to be more
have come to any conclusive conclusions about the relationship between persistent. Natural resource commodities markets are thought to be
oil and macroeconomic activities. Given the fact that the first stream of more effective in sending shocks across the economy. As a result, com­
research indicates a negative association between oil shocks and eco­ modity markets for natural resources are more closely linked to finan­
nomic output, other empirical studies find positive relationships be­ cial, stock, and equity markets. The spillover of oil shocks to other
tween oil and macroeconomic activities. The third body of literature financial markets is expected to be more persistent during the COVID-19
describes statistically insignificant relationships. Moreover, a bulk of epidemic due to the strong link between oil and other financial markets.
literature is conducted to examine the movement between oil price As a result, we anticipate high volatility in other markets.
shocks and macroeconomic activities during the global recession of the
1970s, oil shock in the 1990s, and global financial crises (2008–09). 3.2. Analytica technique
However, to our knowledge, the volatility spillovers between oil prices
and macroeconomic activities in the recent COVID-19 pandemic The wavelet approach is a well-known instrument for researchers in
outbreak have not yet been studied. This seminal study examines the medical and engineering. Nevertheless, in recent years, the strategy has
spillovers effects of volatility between oil and other macroeconomic become increasingly popular in other fields such as energy, environ­
activities in the era of global financial crises and the COVID-19 outbreak. ment, and business as because it enables for the extraction of highly
A comparative analysis of the dynamics of spillovers between oil price important information on the time-frequency movement between time
shocks and macroeconomic activities for different time periods is per­ series variables that cannot be detected using the other approaches
formed. Additional research should be carried out to consider additional outlined by (Ramsey, 2002), it is particularly useful in the field of sta­
evidence on the relationship between oil and macroeconomic activities. tistics. According to (Ramsey, 2002), the wavelet method is preferable to
This study contributes to the literature by using time-frequency data of other techniques due to its power to obtain valued information by
oil prices and economic activities with a wide-ranging coverage in the simultaneously taking the time and frequency dimensions into account.
time dimension (November 2007 till November 2020). Our dataset in­ The wavelet power spectrum aids in the acquisition of local information
cludes the period from 2007 to 2020, which allows us to explore the in real-time. A null hypothesis, which states that a stationary process
effect of the global financial crises (2007–2008) and COVID-19 outbreak creates the series with a particular background power spectrum, can be
(2019–2020). The assessments of the linkage between oil price volatility used to determine the statistical significance of wavelet power in the

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Y. Yu et al. Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

series. It is possible to presume that a peak in the wavelet power spec­ 4. Results and discussions
trum is a real feature with particular percent confidence if the peak is
much higher than the background spectrum (Das, 2021). Since the article’s main purpose is to identify the co-movement of
The wavelet power spectrum (WPS) and wavelet coherence (WC) are economic activities (measured by GDP) and oil prices within a global
the two popular methods of Wavelet analysis. Through the Wavelet perspective, the WPS method is used to identify the rapid changes in oil
coherence method, both the long-term and short-term causal nexus be­ prices during the period of 2007–2020. The time period is split into three
tween oil prices and economic activities can be explored from a global major time periods; 2007–2009, 2010–2018, and 2019–2020. The first
perspective. Since this study examines the interlinked between oil prices period covers the global financial crises, the second period covers
volatility and economic activities during COVID-19 and the financial COVID and financial crises, and the third period covers the COVID-19
crises of 2008; hence, we carried out the wavelet analysis. We use time- crises. The descriptive statistics of the study’s primary variables are
series variables of GDP and oil prices to analyze the time-frequency presented in the tables below (see Table 1). The mean value of the GDP
dependency of economic activities and oil prices from a global growth rate is clearly higher between COVID-19 and the period of
perspective for the time period November 2007 till November 2020). financial crises. During COVID-19 and financial crises, the GDP growth
The purpose is to check the impact of oil shocks in global crises (such as rate is close to zero. During the financial crisis, however, the average
COVID-19 and financial crises of 2008) on economic activities. To serve price of oil rose to 81.65624. However, during COVID-19, the average
this purpose, WPS and WC are the most relevant methods. Wavelet () price of oil was 48.33344. The mean value of oil price between COVID-
formation is given as: 19 and the financial crises period is 74.15813.

(1)
1 iω0 t − 12t2
ψ (t) = π− 4 e− e p(t), t = 1, 2, 3
4.1. Oil prices and economic activities during the period of global
where t indicates the place where the wavelet is operated on a time financial crises
series. Time and location are represented by k and f. By transforming ψ,
we can get ψ k, f parameter. The transformed equation is given as: The wavelet power spectrum for GDP and oil prices during global
( ) financial crises is reported in Figs. 1 and 2. It is evident from these fig­
1 t− k
ψ k.f (t) = √̅̅̅ ψ , k, f ∈ ℝ, f ∕
=0 (2) ures that both GDP and OP have shown high power during the period of
h f
global financial crises, which indicates significant volatility in economic
After taking the time series data in the form of p(t), the correspon­ activities and oil prices during global financial crises. GDP is signifi­
dence continuous wavelet function can be found in equation (3): cantly vulnerable in 2008–08 to 2008–12 (at 4–5 periods of scale). It is
∫∞ ( ) evident from Fig. 2 that the oil prices were mostly vulnerable between
1 t− k
Wp (k, f ) = p(t) √̅̅̅ ψ dt (3) 2008–03 and 2008–12 at different frequencies. Moreover, there is high
− ∞ f f heterogeneity in the distribution of GDP and OP in the period of global
By reconstructing the series p(t) with annexing the ψ coefficient, we financial crises. Hence, we conclude that the pattern of the economic
obtain equation (4) as: activities and oil prices are significantly influenced by the global
∫ ∞[ ∫ ∞ ] financial crisis of 2007–08. These results support the earlier findings of
1 ⃒ ⃒
p(t) = ⃒Wp (a, b)⃒2 da db (4) (Marina et al., 2018). In the next step, the Wavelet Coherence approach
Cψ 0 − ∞ b2 is employed to explore the pattern of co-movements between GDP and
To capture the behavior of series, this study uses by using the wavelet oil prices. The wavelet coherence enables us to find out the strength of
power spectrum (WPS) approach. The WPS approach enables us to the correlation between GDP and OP. We observe a high correlation
capture the volatility, vulnerability, heterogeneity, and behavior of value between GDP and OP with reference to as in Eq. (6). The warm
variables. The equation of WPS is given as: color in the cone represents the high connections among the variables
⃒ ⃒2 GDP and OP. It is evident that the warm color dominates the cone, and
WPSp (k, f ) = ⃒Wp (k, f )⃒ (5) hence, we conclude that there is strong interconnectedness between
GDP and OP during the period of global financial crises. Moreover, in the
Contrary to classic causality tests, the wavelet approach incorporates
cone, the arrows encircled by the black line represent the dimension of
both time and frequency approaches to analyze the relationship between
the causality. The decision is made based on the arrow inside the cone.
the time series p(t) and the frequency series q. (t). The time series is
The path of the arrow indicates the nature of causality between GDP and
transformed using the cross-wavelet transform (CWT).
Wpq (k, f) = Wp (k, f) Wq (k, f), and the squared wavelet coherence
Table 1
of Wpq (k, f) is
Descriptive statistics.
⃒ ( −1 )⃒
⃒C f Wpq (k, f ) ⃒2 Financial Crises Period
R2 (k, f ) = ( ⃒ ⃒2 ) ( ⃒ ⃒2 ) (6)
C f − 1 ⃒Wp (k, f )⃒ C f − 1 ⃒Wq (k, f )⃒ GDP OP

Mean 0.358973 81.65624

where c denotes the smoothing process over time. Through the equation Median 0.566417 76.72500
Maximum 3.652158 145.3100
of WPS, we can get more information about the range of the series. R2(k,
Minimum − 2.133936 30.28000
f) indicates the connectedness of variables. Warmer color sections in Std. Dev. 2.030541 28.44729
wavelet coherence diagrams imply strong linkages between time series COVID-19 Period
variables, whereas cold or blue areas suggest no connectivity. The di­ Mean − 0.161270 48.33344
rection of substantial causality is represented by arrows enclosed by a Median 0.609983 53.28000
Maximum 3.550668 66.24000
black line in wavelet coherence research. The arrows pointing to the left
Minimum − 6.925427 − 36.98000
indicate that the time series variables have a negative correlation, while Std. Dev. 3.111271 12.68828
the arrows pointing to the right indicate that the variables are in phase Between COVID-19 and Financial Crises Period
(Kirikkaleli and Güngör, 2021). Mean 3.036264 74.15813
Median 2.898553 77.06000
Maximum 5.005794 113.3900
Minimum 2.452823 26.19000
Std. Dev. 0.574123 22.46931

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Y. Yu et al. Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

Fig. 1. Wavelet power spectrum for GDP

Fig. 2. Wavelet power spectrum for OP.

OP. In Fig. 3, we observe the path of the arrows to the left-down at the run, supported by the evidence. As a result, we contend that a spike in oil
relatively higher scales of 16 and 32 periods, which suggests that there is prices during a global financial crisis has major ramifications for eco­
one-way causation between oil prices and economic growth in the long nomic activity. Moreover, we observe the path of the arrows to the

Fig. 3. Wavelet coherence between GDP and OP.

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Y. Yu et al. Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

up-right-at-the-low scales of 4 and 8 periods, which implies that there is equity markets. Furthermore, it is widely acknowledged that commod­
unilateral causality running from oil prices to economic growth in the ities derived from natural resources exhibit particularly volatile
short-run. Hence, we infer that any policy to target oil prices signifi­ behavior during times of crisis. The occurrence of financial crises and
cantly influences economic activities. pandemics has prompted scholars and policymakers to explore the dy­
namics of spillovers between oil prices and other macroeconomic vari­
4.2. Oil prices and economic activities between COVID -19 and financial ables and activities.
crisis

This study also investigated the co-movement of economic activities 4.3. Oil prices and economic activities during the period of COVID-19
and oil prices during post-financial crises and pre-COVID periods. For pandemic crises
this purpose, the wavelet power spectrum (WPS) method is used to
identify the changes in oil prices during 2011–2019. The wavelet power This study also investigated the co-movement of economic activities
spectrum for GDP and oil prices are reported in Figs. 4 and 5, respec­ and oil prices during the period of COVID crises period. For this purpose,
tively. According to these figures, it is clear that both GDP and OP have the wavelet power spectrum (WPS) method is used to identify the
shown low power during the period, which indicates less volatility in changes in GDP and oil prices during 2019–2020. The wavelet power
economic activities and oil prices during the post-global financial crises spectrum for GDP and oil prices in the period of the COVID-19 pandemic
and pre-pandemic period. It is evident from Fig. 2 that the oil prices were are reported in Figs. 7 and 8, respectively. It is evident from these figures
mostly vulnerable between 2011 to 2012 and 2013 to 2015 at low fre­ that GDP and OP have shown high power during the period, which in­
quencies. Moreover, there is low heterogeneity in the distribution of dicates higher volatility in economic activities and oil prices during the
GDP and OP in the period of post-global financial crises and pre- pandemic period. It is evident from Fig. 8 that the oil prices were mostly
pandemic crises. Hence, we conclude that the pattern of the economic vulnerable between 2020–02 to 2020–05 at high frequencies. Moreover,
activities and prices of oil is significantly less volatile during the normal there is high heterogeneity in the distribution of GDP and OP in the
periods when there is no global crisis. It is evident from Fig. 6 that the period of pandemic crises. Hence, we conclude that the pattern of the
warm color dominates the cone, and hence, we conclude that there is economic activities and prices of oil are significantly more volatile
strong interconnectedness between GDP and OP during the period of during the pandemic era. In the next step, the Wavelet Coherence
2011–2019. Moreover, in the cone, the arrows encircled by the black approach is employed to explore the pattern of co-movements between
line represent the dimension of the causality. Fig. 6 shows that during GDP and oil prices in the period of a global pandemic. We observe a high
the period of 2010–11, arrows point to the left-down at the relatively correlation value between GDP and OP with reference to as in Eq. (6). It
higher scales of 64 and 512 periods (high frequency), implying that is evident from Fig. 9 that the warm color dominates the cone, and
there is unilateral causality from oil prices to economic growth. Hence, hence, we conclude that there is strong interconnectedness between
we argue that a shock to oil prices in the period of post-financial crises GDP and OP during the period of the pandemic, i.e., 2019 to 2020.
and pre-pandemic crises has important repercussions for economic ac­ The decision is made based on the arrow inside the cone. The path of
tivities. Moreover, during the period of 2017–18, the path of the arrows the arrow indicates the nature of causality between GDP and OP. In
is pointed towards right-up at the higher scales of 64 and 512 periods, Fig. 3, we observe the path of the arrows to the up-right at the relatively
which imply that there is unilateral causality running from oil prices to lower scales of the 2 and 4 periods; it follows from this that there is one-
economic growth in the short-run. Hence, we infer that any policy to way causation from oil prices to economic activity. As a result, we
target oil prices significantly influences economic activities. These re­ contend that a spike in oil prices during a global financial crisis has
sults support (Foglia and Angelini, 2020b) and (Sheng et al., 2020b) major ramifications for the economy. Moreover, we also observe the
studies, who argue that when it comes to delivering a shock to other path of the arrows to the up-right at the high scales of 32 and 64 periods,
sectors of the economy, the natural resources commodity markets are which imply that there is unilateral causality running from oil prices to
considered to be the most efficient. As a result, commodity markets for economic growth in the short run. Hence, we infer that any policy to
natural resources are more closely linked to the financial, stock, and target oil prices significantly influences economic activities.

Fig. 4. Wavelet power spectrum for GDP

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Y. Yu et al. Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

Fig. 5. Wavelet power spectrum for OP.

Fig. 6. Wavelet coherence between GDP and OP.

Fig. 7. Wavelet power spectrum for GDP

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Fig. 8. Wavelet power spectrum for OP.

Fig. 9. Wavelet coherence between GDP and OP.

5. Conclusions and policy implications movement between the variables. Based on the results, we find (i)
there is strong interconnectedness between GDP and OP during the
The natural resources commodity markets are considered as more period of global financial crises; ii) a shock in oil prices has repercussions
efficient in sending a shock to other sectors of the economy. However, for economic activities in the long run iii) in the short-run, there is
the interconnectedness among the natural resource market and macro­ unilateral causality running from oil prices to economic growth; iv) any
economic activities has not been investigated so far. The apparent co- policy to target oil prices significantly influences economic activities; v)
movement of oil prices and macroeconomic activity has caught the in­ there is strong interconnectedness between GDP and OP during the
terest of researchers, who are now examining the interconnectivity of oil period of 2011–2019; vi) Between 2011 and 2019, stable co-moments
prices and macroeconomic activity in greater depth. With the global between oil prices and economic activities are observed; vii) the
financial crisis and the COVID-19 outbreak in mind, this seminal study pattern of the economic activities and prices of oil are significantly more
investigates the spillover effects of volatility between oil and other volatile during the pandemic era; ix) there is strong interconnectedness
macroeconomic activity in the post-crisis era. The COVID-19 pandemic between GDP and OP during the period of the pandemic, i.e., 2019 to
has had a significant negative impact on the economy. The oil market, 2020; x) in the short-run, there is unilateral causality running from oil
among other things, has been the most adversely affected. A high level of prices to economic growth.
uncertainty in the oil market has posed additional hurdles to govern­ This study examines pertinent policy implications to understand the
ments and investors worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. Because volatility nature of oil prices and prescribe appropriate policy responses.
there is a tight nexus between oil and other financial markets, the In terms of policy implications, it is suggested that policy initiatives may
spillover of oil shocks to other financial markets is expected to be more would be helpful to mitigate the rapid drop in oil prices. Governments
persistent during the COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, there has been may ease the restriction of lockdowns and restart their economies to
significant volatility observed in other markets. It has been claimed that support the oil market. Furthermore, economies must prepare for po­
the COVID-19 epidemic has had a significant impact on both the vola­ tential disasters. It’s worth noting that the Covid-19 epidemic had a
tility and returns in the oil market. Hence, it is necessary to conduct a significant long-term impact on oil prices in this study. The oil markets
comparative investigation of the dynamics of spillovers between oil will be able to return to normal once the coronavirus has been
price shocks and macroeconomic activities over a variety of different eradicated.
time periods. This study uses a wavelet coherence approach to examine
whether there is time-frequency dependency between oil prices and Declaration of competing interest
GDP. The approach also explores the causal link between oil prices and
economic activities from a global perspective. The wavelet method is We declare that there is not conflict of interest.
used to obtain highly valued information about the time-frequency

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Y. Yu et al. Resources Policy 75 (2022) 102531

Data availability Marinaș, M.-C., Dinu, M., Socol, A.-G., Socol, C., 2018. Renewable energy consumption
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stock markets in Saudi Arabia: a VaR based wavelet. Borsa Istanbul Review 19,
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