DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011
MARKET S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION

ENTRY LEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Exited at 1.4205 (Breakeven). Missed buy at 1.6190. Await fresh signal. Awaiting Buy Trade Setup above 80.00. Final objective met at 0.7600. Await signal. Await Trade Buy Setup. Awaiting Sell Trade Setup. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await Trade Setup. Await Trade Setup.

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/GBP EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports. CH-2008 Neuchtel [email protected] Switzerland www.migbank.com

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 EURUSD remains bearish under resistance at 1.4420.

FAILED
BREAKOUTS
PIVOT ZONE

Exited at 1.4205 (Breakeven). EUR/USDs price activity remains bearish, despite a two-day reactionary bounce which failed in resistance at 1.4420. This confirms another bearish pattern, weighed down by additional failed breakouts from the major Bermuda triangle pattern. We prefer to open a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningful directional breakout.

REVERSAL PATTERN REVERSAL PATTERN AT 200 DMA (1.3928)

Our long standing bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (from May) holds. A resumption of lower will target 1.3938 (200-DMA), where a large amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for repeat support or a big squeeze lower. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead to a reassessment of this view. Inversely, the US dollar index is resuming its oversold bounce from key support at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multiweek/month horizon.
+27% +19%

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (76.91) US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily 2 years) US$ INDEX (Weekly) (4 YEARS)

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.
Please select link: REPORT
TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL 13

VIDEO

TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50)

TRIGGER (15000) COT LIQUIDITY

STILL UNWINDING!

EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Exited at 1.4205 (Breakeven).

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD
Higher low now in place at 1.6225.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011

GBP/USD exhibits a number of characteristics on longer-term charts that are suggestive of further gains. These include a bounce from the 50 week moving average, currently at 1.6044, and a push above the resistance of a daily bear channel, warning of a return to 1.6547 and then 1.6747. Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested as support (not shown), suggesting that the recovery from 1.4231, in the weekly timeframe, remains intact. The correction that took place in the hourly timeframe narrowly missed our target zone (near 1.6200), reaching 1.6225/29 in recent trade. 1.6225 may now mark the higher low that we sought for a return to 1.6747. To a degree we view the recent strength seen in Sterling is down to it GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP being perceived as a haven from the stresses in the Eurozone. Failure to remain above 1.6200 will warn of a fresh relapse towards 1.5781, in the longer-term.

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Missed buy at 1.6190. Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011
POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR)

Unwinding after recent BOJ intervention.

USD/JPY is unwinding sharply after the recent surge higher (above that allimportant level at 80.00), following the BOJs Intervention.

84.50

EARTHQUAKE SHOCK!

83.30
POST G7 MOVE HIGH

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, watching for stable price moves to initiate a buy trade setup and sustained resumption of the preferred new structural bull-cycle.

82.00

To sustain the impulsive move higher, we still need a close above strategic levels at 80.00, then 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

MAJOR TRIANGLE (WAVE IV) SIGNALS FINAL MOVE DOWN

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto
USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET ZONE (88.00)

88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).

CONFLUENCE ZONE

BOJ INTERVENTION (PART II)

NEW POST WWII RECORD LOW !!! (76.25)

MONTHLY TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL

13

WAVE 5
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Falling wedge formation now potentially complete.
Final objective met at 0.7600 last Friday. USD/CHF met our last target at 0.7600. Although further weakness cannot be ruled out, we would only anticipate continued losses if a hold cannot be found above 0.7579 (05/08/2011 low). Considering what is taking place in other risk markets we see the potential for USD demand to pick up over coming sessions, thus placing a near-term floor on USD/CHF. In the hourly timeframe we see a slowing of momentum. With this in mind we view the current region as potentially offering medium-term scope for USD/CHF long positioning. However, we remain wary of issues in the Eurozone periphery which have been responsible for

USD/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

the extreme pricing we see now. We await the appropriate short-term set up.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short at 0.7997 met final objective at 0.7600. Await signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily) EXPANDING REVERSAL PATTERN
USD/CAD (Weekly )

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Accelerated recovery extends above 200-dMA (0.9817).
BULLISH REVERSAL PATTERN EXTENDS HIGHER USD/CADs accelerated recovery has extended above its long-term 200dMA at 0.9817. A sustained close above this area will signal an important change in the primary trend, into positive territory around parity 1.0000.

However, price activity remains very extreme at the moment and should be due some unwinding into near-term support at 0.9751 and 0.9670. We look to buy on these potential dips for the major move higher.

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still holding strong having recently breached its

MAJOR LOW (0.9446)

200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE CHF/CAD (Daily)

In contrast, CHF/CAD is still very overbought, having recently accelerated

DOJI PATTERN SIGNALS EXHAUSTION

to a new 2011 high. The overall move has strengthened the uptrend and continues to signal further unwinding of risk appetite in the global markets.

50% (1.3466) 61.8% (1.3379)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Awaiting Buy Trade Setup.

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Sharp decline holds at 200-dMA (1.0305).
AUD/USDs sharp decline is now holding at its long-term 200-dMA near 1.0303 (TDST line). We are watching price reactions into this area closely.

Probabilities favour an temporary oversold bounce around this area, which we would look to sell into for a break lower into 1.0205, then 1.0000 and
200-DMA (1.0303)

0.9706.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

AUD/NZD (Daily) 200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT

AUD/JPY (Daily)

13

TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNAL

The Aussie dollar has extended weakness against the Japanese yen and resumed its pattern breakout through our extreme support at 80.42 (61.8% Fib). The downside breakout adds to risk aversion in the global financial community.

38.2% (84.09) 50% (82.25) 61.8% (80.42) 200-DMA (83.75) KEY SUPPORT 1.2500 / 1.2463

BREAKOUT ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY Awaiting Sell Trade setup. Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Short-term consolidation favoured to resolve higher.
GBP/JPY broke over daily falling channel resistance yesterday, but has faced initial resistance close to the 200 day moving average, returning to trade within the confines of the old bear channel. Short-term structure needs to break under the 126.97 high printed on 02/08/11. In the meantime a continued push higher remains favoured. For now we are wary of extremely volatile range bound trade. Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00. However, any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by shortterm structure that is suggestive of further gains in the hourly timeframe at the very least.

GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Returns to recent daily trading range.
EUR/JPY appears to be stabilising following last weeks intervention by the the BOJ. We have seen a test of the 200 day moving average, which has thus far been met by supply, with a relapse back into the trading range of the last few weeks. A sustained break over 114.18 is required to suggest an end to the downphase that was initiated from 117.74. With this in mind we look to see if a push back over the 50 week moving average, currently at 113.57, can be achieved. Failure to do so will warn of a fresh bout of weakness. We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in trade

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

direction.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Meets initial demand at the base of a possible daily channel.
EUR/GBP peaked at 0.9084 recently, potentially marking the end of the rising phase seen since 0.8285. After testing the 200 day moving average last week, this being our nearterm target, we have seen a minor recovery higher within a possible rising daily channel. While above 0.8643 a continuation of this recovery remains favoured. We also note that a push under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term bullish structure.

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Support seen following break under daily channnel support.
EUR/CHF continues to print fresh all-time lows, reaching 1.0711 thus far. However, we note that the last four days of trade have failed to make significant downside progress, warning of a possible false break lower. We also note that the yields on Periphery government bond spreads have fallen from their highs. In particular Spanish and Italian 10 year government bond yields are now trading with a 5% handle. This should also be supportive near term for EUR/CHF.

However, the question still remains as to how long the ECB can maintain yields at or below current levels, considering the size of the Italian bond market. As mentioned in earlier reports, a sustained break over 6% in EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Spanish and Italian 10 year yields could potentially cause serious funding issues in both of these nations. Maintaining these yields under 6% in the absence of any real improvements may prove a step too far for the ECB. While under 1.1374 our bias remains firmly lower. Back over 1.1892 is required to end our bearish bias.

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Gold holding near psychological level at 1700.00.
Gold prices remain surprisingly resilient and are now holding near psychological level at 1700.00, having broken above its recent

consolidation zone. Next resistance can be found at 1755.00 and 1800.00.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity which has tentatively pushed above the 12-year trend-channel, that had also recently developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.
10 consecutive Higher Closes

Keeping this in mind, there is still potential for a sharp unwinding lower, which would be healthy following such a powerful surge higher.

Near-term support can be found at 1640.40 (recent low) and 1600 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
GOLD COT Net Large Speculation Positions

(previous psychological level). A sustained close beneath here would warn of a sharp reversal lower.

ACCELERATION IN LONG POSITIONS

GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY Await Trade Setup. Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily) 13
TARGET 2 (43.1136/43.8477) 50% (41.0513) TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Sharp bearish reversal continues to weigh.
Silvers recent sharp bearish reversal pattern continues to weigh, while also signaling an important divergence from Gold. Only a push back above 42.2300 (recent high) will expose our next target zone at 43.1136-43.8477. Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20th July low). A break here would trigger downside risk into 34.0519 (200-dMA).
200 dMA (32.9235)

13

38.2% (32.3135)

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

Gold/Silver Ratio 50% (26.9150)

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.

13 YEAR LEVEL UNWINDING 37% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

37%

61.8% (21.5165)

OVER

30 YEAR BASE

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await Trade Setup.
www.migbank.com

Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011 Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

8 August, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist [email protected]

Ron William Technical Strategist [email protected]

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist [email protected]

MIG BANK [email protected] www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15