CLIMATE BRIEF 2022

Navigating Pakistan's Climate Crisis

Climate Brief 2022
Navigating Pakistan’s Climate
Crisis

Authored by

Meera Nadeem
Abdulla Wasti
Zahaid Rehman
Salman Zaidi

Copyright Jinnah Institute 2022

Introduction outpaces us in more ways than we have indicators
for.
Existential challenges require concerted action,
Pakistan remains highly vulnerable to slow onset
consensus and policy clarity. So far, on climate
disasters owing to poor data, administrative
stress, Pakistan seems to be caught in a
incapability and malgovernance. Extreme weather
commitment trap where at the international level it
events confirm that our preparedness is grossly
has promised far more than it can properly
inadequate, and the toll for disadvantaged groups
measure, let alone deliver. The problem is not a
will remain high. Recent disaster responses show an
new one, and indicators for vulnerability have
urgent need to operationalise adaptation plans that
steadily gotten worse, not better over the last few
match needs on ground, not just expectations at
years. Yet building consensus on perennial
international climate forums.
challenges has become a bitterly contested political
battle between the centre and provinces, especially
As Pakistan makes a case for updating its guiding
on issues like water sharing and controlling air
documents on climate change, decision-makers
pollution. While climate costs to Pakistan
must consider the extreme potential of social
consistently rise, responsibility for action is often
destabilization that compounding vulnerabilities
positioned as externally located in multilateral
pose to the future, both immediate and medium-
forums, where climate injustice at the expense of
term. Resetting policy frameworks eventually
the Global South has become normalised.
serves little purpose if the institutional setting for
climate action, and the deployment of resources is
The threat at home is acute. 40% of the population
indifferent to marginalised groups’ suffering, or
is food insecure, and 80% citizens in urban centres
inadvertently programmed to deliver more
do not have access to clean drinking water.
inequity. This has been the case for decades.
Pakistani cities rank perilously high on the air
pollution score in the world, and smog now cuts
This policy brief serves as a reminder about
five years from life spans in Punjab and elsewhere.
Pakistan’s longstanding challenges, which are water
One in ten deaths among children under the age of
availability, food insecurity and deteriorating air
five is caused by air pollution, while 128,000
quality. These domains constitute the bedrock of
persons die from airborne particulate matter in
Pakistan’s environmental fragility and human
Pakistan each year.1
vulnerability. The sections below summarize the
major challenges in these areas and submit policy
These facts need to be emphasised over and over
recommendations for decision-makers’ attention as
again. Climate action cannot be postponed to some
well as other policy stakeholders. The information
distant future, nor remain mired in policy
presented here may follow known trendlines, but
reframing. Pakistan may have achieved SDG Goal
the urgency to act is much greater than before.
13 on climate action a decade earlier, but the haze
surrounding policy impact makes it unclear
whether we are any closer to achieving climate
justice and equity. Meanwhile, the climate crisis

1S Khan, “Why Pakistan Has Some of the Most 59686579#:~:text=In%20Pakistan%2C%20one%20in

Polluted Cities in the World,” DW.COM, November 1, %2010,from%20air%20pollution%2Drelated%20illnes
2021, https://www.dw.com/en/why-pakistan-has- ses.
some-of-the-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world/a-
 in the near future.2 Drought and dried up
freshwater resources in rural areas has created a
The Water Sector: constant flow of migrants to cities, which are water-
deficient as well. Moreover, rapid onset hazards like
Addressing the Scarcity Crisis floods create a large cohort of internal
displacement persons, in need of water, sanitation
Pakistan faces a multitude of challenges that are a and hygiene support. The burden of this stress is
direct consequence of its acute water shortage. borne chiefly by women and children, who have the
Despite reaching alarming levels, its water scarcity fewest survival resources to cope with water stress
issues continue to worsen due to policy inaction in urban and rural areas.
and the lack of an integrated water management
system. Inequitable access and distribution of clean Agriculture is a water guzzler
water, growing population, rapid urbanization, At the moment, 97 per cent of fresh water in
progressive industrialization, lack of storage Pakistan is consumed by the agriculture sector,
capacity, and burgeoning climate risks altogether whose contribution is 18% on average to GDP.
make water management in the country an almost Outmoded agricultural practices, flood irrigation, a
unmanageable task. The problems that arise lack of hybrid seeding and poor water management
directly from water scarcity consequently have a overconsume Pakistan’s precious water resources.
large impact on the country’s subsystems such as
agriculture, food security, and holistic health. More
importantly, the commoditization of water has
emboldened water mafias within the country that
exploit impoverished and vulnerable groups; this
threat combined with climate change and water
governance issues is very likely to worsen per capita
water availability, and creating further stress on
ground. While public outcries and financial losses
driven by low crop-yields have led the government
to revise the National Water Policy (NWP),
solutions that enhance water endowments are likely How Pakistan Wastes its Water Resources
still a distant reality. Source: DAWN News

Pakistan is the third most water stressed country

and home to the world’s fifth largest population. There is no system to prevent evaporation or
Over the years, there has been an astounding 400% pilferage and over 40% water is lost as a result.
decrease in per person access, coupled with the Furthermore, 13% cultivatable land is saline and
parallel issue of unclean water. The per capita water 30% of agricultural land is waterlogged. 3 Water
storage capacity in Pakistan is a meagre 150 cubic pricing in Pakistan is categorised according to
metres. With an estimated stress increase of 32% irrigation, domestic and industrial tariffs. Low
by 2025, Pakistan will face a severe food shortage irrigation tariffs are also responsible for water

2 Aneel Salman, “Pakistan's Looming Water Crisis,” 3 Ibid.

East Asia Forum, November 13, 2021,
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/11/13/pakistans
-looming-water-crisis/.
wastage, and are mired in political controversies. for the deterioration of groundwater quality.
When tariffs for the use of surface water are much Besides salinity, higher contents of fluoride and
lower than for groundwater usage, irregular arsenic have been found in irrigated areas, owing to
electricity supply also means farmers rely on other the disposal of untreated wastewater into the
costly alternatives such as diesel power to operate nearby water bodies. Moreover, higher levels of
water pumps. sodium, and to a lesser extent of chloride,
magnesium and potassium have also been found.
Overuse of groundwater sources As a result, the water that 70% of tube wells in
Pakistan is the third largest user of groundwater, Punjab extract is saline sodic, which in turn when
consuming about 9% of the global groundwater used for irrigation is turning irrigated lands into
abstraction and occupying 4.6% of the total saline-sodic soils.5
groundwater-irrigated areas of the world. This
extensive use of groundwater in the country began Damming and Storage
in the 1960s, when 16,700 drainage wells with a With Pakistan’s water storage capacity already
discharge capacity of 0.80 m3 /sec were installed limited, the likelihood of climate change induced
under the state sponsored Salinity Control and glacial loss and reductions in the runoff feeding the
Reclamation Projects (SCARPs). The SCARP tube Indus will further burden its groundwater capacity.
wells were installed to control water-logging and At the moment, Pakistan can store only 10% of the
salinity problems, and this model motivated average annual flow of its rivers, far below the
farmers to install their own tube wells, resulting in global average of 40%. The river flows are uneven
the massive development of private tube wells, throughout the year, and agricultural yields depend
from a mere 30,000 in 1960, to over 1.2 million in on storage capacity. Pakistan’s annual storage
2018.4 capacity is only 30 days, compared to 700 days in
Egypt, 900 days in the US, and 120-220 in India.
Until 1980, groundwater was only supplementing Pakistan currently has only two major reservoirs,
surface water supplies because the area under the Tarbela and Mangla dams, which are beset with
cultivation was less, and the need for irrigation siltation problems, and have lost about 32 and 20%
water was rather conservative. After this period, of their storage capacities, respectively.6 Solutions
farmers started extensive exploitation of remain under-discussed and beyond the public gaze
groundwater to increase the cultivated area of as issues that merit attention.
wheat and other cash crops such as rice and
sugarcane. The unregulated use of groundwater for Access for Marginalised Groups
agriculture have resulted in an excessive lowering Most of the water scarcity burden falls on women
of groundwater levels in irrigated areas of the in rural areas with very limited access to potable
Punjab and Balochistan provinces. At present, 50% water and longer distances to carry it back, as
of the total cultivated area in Punjab has a climate stress increases. According to UN studies,
groundwater table depth below 600 cm. The an estimated 70% of households still drink
declining groundwater levels are also responsible bacterially contaminated water. While Pakistan’s

4Qureshi, Asad Sarwar. “Groundwater Governance in 6 Janjua, Shahmir, Ishtiaq Hassan, Shoaib Muhammad,
Pakistan: From Colossal Development to Neglected Saira Ahmed, and Afzal Ahmed. “Water Management
Management,” n.d. https://www.mdpi.com/2073- in Pakistan's Indus Basin: Challenges and
4441/12/11/3017/pdf#:~:text=Currently%2C%201.2 Opportunities.” Water Policy. IWA Publishing,
%20million%20private%20tubewells,is%20about%206 December 1, 2021.
0%20billion%20m3. https://iwaponline.com/wp/article/23/6/1329/84494
/Water-management-in-Pakistan-s-Indus-Basin.
5 Ibid.
policy documents recognise water management as Cholistan, Kohistan, Thar and Thal for agriculture
a critical issue, water rights should be safeguarded and livestock survival, and especially as rising
through constitutional protections. Safe drinking temperatures trigger droughts and flooding,
water and sanitation for all is recognised by the UN followed by soil erosion.9 Traditionally a crisis that
as a basic human right, yet the SDG goal of disrupts rural life, flooding has recently been seen
ensuring safe access to drinking water and in metropolitan centres like Karachi, Lahore and
sanitation by 2030 remains far off track. Existing even Islamabad. Improving urban drainage and
water management practices do not take into undertaking non-structural measures is crucial as
account the needs of women, and discourse itself rapid urban sprawl takes place. All along the Indus
needs to be gender-sensitised in both rural and Basin, protecting groundwater reserves, recharging
urban contexts. Water collection still remains a and water quality improvement are needs that must
‘female’ burden in rural households, made perilous be met with immediate action. Moreover, Pakistan
by insecurity in all parts of the country. Where has the seventh largest mangrove system in the
physical mobility for women is threatened or world that plays a pivotal role in preventing sea
curtailed, households invariably experience a incursion. Pollution and reduced glacial melt have
degradation in water consumption, sanitation and endangered the mangrove cover, and coastal areas
hygiene. 7 including Karachi and Keti Bunder face severe
flooding as a result.10
Pakistan’s population growth and water usage.8
Governance Framework
Pakistan’s water governance framework dates back
to partition, and the country’s first water policy was
notified in 2018. The National Water Policy
addresses issues driving Pakistan’s water crisis, and
identifies strategic priorities such as climate change,
drinking water and sanitation, urban water and
flood management, water rights and obligations,
etc. However, the policy is geared towards mega
environmental infrastructure such as dams among
other priorities, and has little connection with food
security, healthcare or even life expectancy that
Sustainable Water Management Practices
result from poor water access and quality.11 It also
Climate research shows that there is a dire need to
does not incorporate a Basin-wide understanding
harvest rainwater, particularly in arid areas like
of water resources, especially when it comes to the

7“Wash: Water, Sanitation and Hygiene.” UNICEF Contemporary Research, September 25, 2020.
Pakistan. Accessed January 25, 2022. https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/energy-
https://www.unicef.org/pakistan/wash-water- environment/water-crisis-and-rainwater-harvesting-
sanitation-and-hygiene-0. prospects-in-pakistan/.

8
Qureshi, Asad. (2005). Climate Change and Water 10 “Pakistan's Looming Water Crisis.” East Asia Forum.
Resources Management in Pakistan. In: Climate
Change and Water Resources in South Asia. 11Abubakar, Syed Muhammad. “Pakistan's Water
10.1201/9780203020777.ch8. Woes: Assessing the National Water Policy.” The
Express Tribune, September 14, 2018.
9Anwar, Rida. “Water Crisis and Rainwater Harvesting https://tribune.com.pk/story/1795801/10-pakistans-
Prospects in Pakistan.” Centre for Strategic and water-woes-assessing-national-water-policy.
transboundary nature of Pakistan’s rivers deliberation is needed on how to enable reform,
originating in India and flowing through all the equity, gender inclusion and sustainability.
provinces.

One aspect of water law and governance in

Pakistan is evident: there is no unified framework
for how water is to be managed centrally by the
federation, independently by the provinces, or in
some form of water-federalism yet to be
negotiated. The Constitution of 1973 regards water
as a subject of provincial control unless the
provinces resolve to let the federation intervene.
Water Availability Forecast
But the provinces have not done so to date, while
Source: National Drought Monitoring Cell,
contestations over the interpretation and
Islamabad
implementation of water-distribution agreements
along the basin such as IRSA remain unresolved.
Despite the furor that “Pakistan will run dry by Recommendations
2025”, no provincial assembly has ever passed a
resolution requesting parliament to make federal 1. Improve water storage capacity
laws with respect to water. The strategic construction of reservoirs and water
catchments such as dams and canals in areas that
In an effort to regulate the distribution of water receive more rainfall is key to improving annual
sources of the Indus River, the Indus River System water storage and usage capacity. Improving the
Authority (IRSA) was established under the Water longevity of these water storage catchments for
Appointment Accord (WAA) in March 1991, and sustained use throughout the year is also crucial.
soon thereafter approved by the Council of There are opportunities to store rainwater in urban
Common Interests (CCI) a week later. A landmark areas, even within the capacity of households with
arrangement, it aims to manage the country’s water simple and inexpensive infrastructure for domestic
issues amongst the provinces, particularly KP, use that municipal governments should consider.
Punjab and Sindh. The provinces of Punjab and KP Landowners can be incentivised to harvest
are upper riparians, whereas Sindh and Balochistan rainwater in proportion to the size of their land and
are lower riparians on the receiving end of both to recharge groundwater sources.
water excess shortage. The government of Sindh
has long complained that it does not receive its due 2. Enable overdue governance tools
share as per the WAA. IRSA and other bodies have Water use efficiency can be improved through
tried to patch-over the inter-provincial water strife, monitoring and evaluation at the district and tehsil
often with stop gap measures like water quotas. levels; capacity building of municipal duty bearers;
Yet, this remains a point of contention between installation of water meters; wastewater
provincial administrations. management systems; regulations for water
Water law too is underdeveloped in Pakistan. There treatment plants; awareness of water conservation
are numerous laws that contain an element related in schools. Climate resilient agriculture practices
to some scale of water, but have yet to be and public awareness through campaigns must also
reconciled: provincial water laws, drinking water be conducted. Local governments and police can
laws, laws on healthcare and sanitation to name a work together to enforce a mechanism to control
few. More importantly, within these domains, and penalise ‘tanker mafias’, and ensure that water
does not become unavailable to poor communities.
 needed, as well as assessing the health of eco-
3. Regulate urban growth systems dependent on rivers.
Illegal construction leads to overburdened urban
centers, whose waterways and drainage systems are 7. Manage the distribution of water inside
choked with solid waste. This has been the direct Pakistan
cause for urban flooding and building damage in The ISRA must take the necessary steps to address
urban centres and the northern areas where tourism the complaints made by all provinces, particularly
is booming. Improved systems for solid waste lower riparians who continue to face acute water
management and urban planning by provincial shortages. The Council of Common Interests must
governments must be implemented to prevent play a mediating role here, and constitute a
urban flooding and related crises that result in committee that includes equal representation from
preventable casualties. provinces, IRSA and other bodies that can improve
the existing protocols over water sharing and
4. Invest in clean water projects management.
Recent initiatives to provide clean water need to be
scaled, and further investments in desalination
efforts and improvement of rural and urban water
infrastructure should be undertaken, especially in
districts where there is evident water stress.

5. Leverage technology and innovation

Technology can improve the quality and usability
of existing water sources such as sea water
desalination plants. Wastewater treatment facilities
that treat contaminated water sources must be
used. Crops and livestock resistant to heat and
water stresses must be diversified, along with
efficient controls on water pricing. The widespread
and most common use of flood irrigation systems
in Pakistan must be replaced with drip and sprinkler
irrigation systems, that are known to positively
impact crop yield and use water more efficiently.
However, care must be taken not to impose
technological innovation on small holders, as its
acquisition is expensive.

6. Take a Basin-wide approach

Water issues have previously triggered conflict
between India and Pakistan. As climate stress
worsens the availability of water across South Asia,
and makes conflict between India-Pakistan-
Afghanistan more likely, multilateral coordination
must be undertaken. Preservation of the Basin
through investing in river systems management is
Agriculture: production and expansion; exploitative trading
practices that dispossess smallholders.
Tackling food insecurity
Pakistan ranks among the bottom one-third of
countries surveyed by the Global Food Security
The agriculture sector is the backbone of Pakistan’s Index (75 out of 113)15, with only marginal
economy, providing livelihoods to about 68% of improvements in recent years. During FY 2020, as
the population living in rural areas, and employing many as 40% households suffered from moderate
45% of the national labour force.12 Unfortunately, to severe food insecurity.16 20% of the population
this sector is also the most severely impacted from in Pakistan is undernourished, and 45% children
climate degradation, with varying crop yields over less than five years of age are stunted as a result of
recent years. The situation is compounded by water this. Food insecurity is also driven by falling
stress that is expected to worsen over coming purchasing power of vulnerable groups, who are
decades, as the demand for water outstrips forced to devote more income to food expenditure.
availability. The areas of the country that are The rise of food inflation is matched by a
particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate corresponding increase in malnutrition and
change include existing arid and hyper-arid areas, vulnerability. Estimates project that an additional
the flood-prone lowland areas in Sindh and Punjab, 9.32 deaths per million will take place every year by
and the coastal areas at risk of saltwater intrusion.13 2050 owing to food insecurity in Pakistan. The
The agriculture sector is jointly composed of four graph below indicates variation in malnutrition
domains: food and fiber crops; horticulture and over two decades.
orchards; livestock and dairy; fisheries; and
forestry. Growth in the agriculture sector today is
lower than in other sectors of the economy and its
contribution to the GDP is 19.5%, half of what it
was 50 years ago.14 Growth has stagnated around
3.3% for a decade owing to familiar challenges:
poor mechanization or technological innovation;
very slow technology transfer; varying input quality,
quantity, and timing; poor road and transport
facilities; unduly strict commercial regulations;
difficulty in accessing credit or loans for farm

12“PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020-21,” https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agricultural-census-

Govt of Pakistan - Finance Division, accessed January 2010-pakistan-report.
25, 2022,
https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_21/02- 15“Global Food Security Index (GFSI).” n.d.
Agriculture.pdf. Foodsecurityindex.eiu.com.
https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/f
13Chaudhry, Qamar Uz Zaman. 2017. Climate Change ood-security-index/index.
Profile of Pakistan. www.adb.org. Asian Development
Bank. https://www.adb.org/publications/climate- 16“Survey Shows 40pc Households Facing Moderate or
change-profile-pakistan. Severe Food Insecurity.” n.d. Www.thenews.com.pk.
Accessed March 22, 2022.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/772048-covid-19-
14“Agricultural Census 2010 - Pakistan Report | survey-shows-40pc-households-facing-moderate-or-
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.” 2020. Pbs.gov.pk. 2020. severe-food-insecurity.
While extreme weather events threaten food there is a lot of catching up to do if Pakistan has to
security by causing crop failures and supply chain respond to this crisis.
disruptions, rising temperatures coupled with
Forestry
variations in precipitation and monsoon patterns
are resulting in decreased iron, zinc, protein, and As for forestry that is included as part of the
the quality of protein in crops. The effects of agriculture sector, Pakistan has only 5% forest
climate change pose a serious threat to the crop cover, and environmental conditions do not
support large scale afforestation. Forest resources
production system of Pakistan’s major crops such
are inadequate to meet domestic demand for
as wheat, maize, cotton, rice and sugarcane. fuelwood. Many indigenous communities depend
Temperature increases in South Asia of 0.5°C–2°C on forests for subsistence and livelihoods, and
could bring about 8–10% loss in agriculture yield, rapidly depleting forests have compelled the
with rice and sugarcane being the worst affected governments of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Khyber
and undergoing a 25% reduction. Some projections Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Azad Kashmir (AJK) to
warn of a 3°C rise by 2040 and 5-6°C by the end of address illegal felling of trees. There are evident
gaps in forest monitoring mechanisms, inter-
the century in Asian countries.17 Pakistan’s NDC
provincial timber trade needs oversight and there is
(2021)18 appropriately captures the severity of the a high vulnerability to climate degradation.
threat to the agricultural sector, however, in terms Financial constraints in provinces and deficits in
of planning ahead and taking adaptation measures, technical knowledge in forest management have led
to a rapid deterioration. Pakistan’s deforestation
rate is 27,000 hectares per annum, chiefly taking
place in community owned and private forests.19

17Syed, Areeja, Taqi Raza, Talha Tufail Bhatti, and https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedD

Neal S. Eash. 2022. “Climate Impacts on the ocuments/Pakistan%20First/Pakistan%20Updated%2
Agricultural Sector of Pakistan: Risks and 0NDC%202021.pdf.
Solutions.” Environmental Challenges 6 (January):
100433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100433. Zaidi, S. n.d. Review of 'Climate Equity and Gender:
19

Women as Agents of Climate Action. National

“THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE
18 Commission on the Status of Women and United
CONTEXT NATIONAL VISION for CLIMATE Nations Development Programme, Islamabad,
ACTION 12.” n.d. Pakistan. 2022.
Pakistan’s flagship Ten Billion Tree Tsunami has Seed varieties available in Pakistan are not suitable
been lauded internationally for trying to reverse for a changing climate characterised by frequent
Pakistan’s low forest cover. droughts, rising temperatures and increasing pest
Agro-ecological zoning attacks. There has not been much progress when it
Experts have repeatedly emphasised the need to comes to piloting adaptability measures like
update the agro-ecological zoning of Pakistan by drought-tolerant crop varieties and collaboration
classifying cultivable areas according to its on technology and deployment for climate action.
physiographic features, rainfall potential, soil It has been pointed out by policy experts that
characteristics, temperature and soil storage etc. technology transfer and cooperation must be
The previous zoning has now become obsolete due pursued with countries like China that have made
to shifting weather patterns, introduction of new remarkable progress in developing wheat varieties
crop varieties and changes in land use.20 This that can resist drought as well as rust. In fact,
exercise will aid policy makers in devising strategies Chinese biotechnologists are working on
for the sustainable use of natural resources, enable developing new cotton and vegetable varieties that
farmers to increase yield, and help the agricultural can be adapted to Pakistani agricultural conditions.
sector better adapt to climate change. Some private initiatives have led to piloting these
new seed varieties, but not on a large scale.21
Research, Development and Technology
Blind Spots in Data
There is a glaring information deficit when it comes
to reliable climate data. Despite being

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/688737-turning-
Suleri, Abid. 2020. Review of Turning to Agriculture.
20 to-agriculture.
The News. July 19, 2020. “Turning to Agriculture.” n.d.
www.thenews.com.pk. 21 Ibid.
acknowledged as a national security issue, the against crop failures due to extreme events such as
impact of climate change is documented with a droughts and floods.
patchwork of evidence collected by development
Care must be taken that an over-reliance on
agencies or private sector platforms. Government
technology-based solutions will not benefit
data is either securitised, inadequate or misleading.
smallholders or poor farmers. Where possible,
This applies to the agricultural sector as well, and
indigenous methods for adaptation must be
the government concedes that estimates do not
prioritized to provide cost effective options, such
exist for new costs associated with infrastructure
as reviving Balochistan’s centuries old karez water
upgradation, falling crop yields or agricultural
channels that provided more equitable irrigation
productivity, nor are climate stress scenarios
possibility to small holders.
known. Additionally, data on long-term and non-
economic losses related to internal migration, 2. Bridge glaring data gaps
displacement, rising poverty levels, nutrition, The information deficit needs to be urgently
stunting, and gender is also not available. addressed when it comes to climate related data,
particularly in the agricultural sector. Detailed cost
Adaptation
benefit analyses on innovation and development
Currently, a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is must be made available, in addition to a
being formulated, so Pakistan may yet be far away comprehensive political-economic analysis of
from implementing the measures catalogued in its adaptation costs under rising temperature
policy wish-lists. Adaptation needs to be on top of scenarios. This has been done internationally, but
the priority list. Of course, financing is an issue, and Pakistan needs to have a projection of its own to
the government must divert more resources toward work with. There is also a need to gather data on
adaptation from the national pool instead of a long-term and non-economic losses relating to
heavy reliance on multilateral funds. internal migration and displacement, rising poverty
levels and implications relating to nutrition,
Recommendations stunting, gender, and other socio-cultural issues.
1. Enable the use of modern farming Gender disaggregated data needs to be made
practices available that can assist policy interventions for
There is a need to incorporate climate-smart reducing vulnerability among marginalized groups,
agriculture (CSA) practices such as laser land- especially women’s differentiated burdens during
leveling and solar power-driven irrigation systems, climate stress.
management amendments like crop divergence, 3. Update the classification of cultivable
appropriate cropping models, and optimised areas
planting dates. Farmers should be encouraged— Classifications should be made according to
particularly those in rain-fed areas—to avoid physiographic features, rainfall potential, soil
monoculture and, instead, plant a variety of heat characteristics, temperature and soil storage, etc., to
and drought resistant low delta crops in order to better devise strategies for the sustainable use of
minimise the risk of crop failure. natural resources. This will assist with increasing
It is also imperative to improve post-harvest crop yield, and aid adaptation in the agricultural
capacity, such as storage and processing facilities sector to the climate crisis. In addition to this,
and infrastructure, preferably at the farm level. capacity must be developed to incorporate Remote
Also, a proper risk management system must be Sensing and GIS techniques to assess temporal
developed including crop insurance to safeguard changes in land cover in different agro-ecological
zones.
 4. Undertake land reforms 6. Improve access to agriculture inputs
There is a dire need to undertake land reforms that The real change in agriculture will come about
undercut the control of large landowners over when farmers have access to modern agricultural
inputs, including improved seeds, fertilizers, crop
agricultural production, pace of innovation,
protection chemicals, and machinery. Farmers will
availability of farming inputs especially water, and benefit from subsidies on these items, as well as
price control. Many supply chain disruptions are access to credit in availing them, especially
caused by excessive control of large landholders, technology.
who withhold supply of foodgrains for better
prices, and create shortages at provincial or even
national levels.

Land reforms can also determine an optimal farm

size as both large and small land holdings are
unproductive. This will incentivise cultivators and
tenants to invest in adaptation practices, as well as
technologies that increase land productivity.

A related legal issue is the discrimination against

women’s ownership of assets, especially land
tenureship. This must be addressed as part of land
reforms. Enabling women’s ownership and control
over land has increased productivity and
community welfare in all documented cases, as well
as improved food security for households.

5. Train farmers and improve information

systems in agriculture
Farmer’s access to information can accelerate
adaptation. Information on safe pesticide use,
high-yielding varieties, modern cultivation and
irrigation technologies, efficient use of inputs,
water availability and weather patterns, as well as
market related information can help them take
decisions that help productivity and reduce
losses. This information can be disseminated
though public radio and television channels, or
through social media which tends to be more
diffuse. Early warning signals in natural disasters
must also be disseminated through these
channels.

Training and education among farmers are known

to improve agricultural productivity, and create
resilience on ground. Where climate stress is
forcing farmers to opt out of agriculture, the
availability of information can help families adapt
into other livelihoods.
 Source: AFP
Air Quality:
Gasping for Breath The Environment Protection Agency (EPA)
decided to adopt a new formula in December 2021,
Air pollution has been one of the more prominent which brought down the air quality numbers by as
fallouts of overall climate degradation, particularly much as 25%,22 because of its inability to control
in Pakistan, where city centres become routinely emissions and shut down polluting industry players.
choked with smog and thick layers of visible EPA had asked media outlets and researchers to
smoke. These consist of greenhouse gases Carbon only use its data going forward, which is
Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide unverifiable. Even the data ‘released’ by the EPA is
(N2O) and particulate matter that combine in a difficult to get access to, considering there is no
lethal mix. While media coverage of the ‘smog public platform where this information is readily
season’ in Lahore city is known and expected, other and regularly released.
cities adjoining Lahore and across Punjab are not
faring much better, according to independent air Air quality also regularly degrades during the winter
quality monitors. The government’s reaction to months of October to December in Pakistan due
2021’s public outcry has been to denounce to a number of factors, but as pointed out
independent data, and develop a new means of repeatedly, the degraded air quality is a near
calculating air quality altogether. permanent condition that can be felt more acutely

22Ali Raza, “EPA to Adopt New Formula to Bring https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/917082-epa-to-

down AQI,” The News (The News International, adopt-new-formula-to-bring-down-aqi.
December 16, 2021),
when air density increases during winter months.
At the heart of the matter is increasing emissions— Source: IQAir
city centres have industrial complexes within or
around them—ensuring that emissions continue to
remain high throughout the year. Urban centres Source apportionment studies conducted over
also get more pollution from vehicular transport, recent years have helped identify where the
and constant construction and development going challenge lies. Provincial governments have strived
on. to curb these emissions at source, but eliminating
them entirely is not feasible, as it involves high
The adverse implications for health cannot be economic costs in terms of industrial shutdowns or
emphasised enough. An AQI of between 100 and adaptation to new technology which is out of reach
150 poses a potential risk to children and people of private sector entities as well as citizens. The
with heart and lung disease—Pakistan’s average major source of emissions are small industries;
AQI for 2020 was measured at 153. An AQI of households’ usage of biomass or ‘dirty fuel’ due to
above 150 is unhealthy for everyone, while levels gas shortages; brick kilns; vehicular traffic using
over 300 are classified as hazardous. Air pollution poor quality fuels; and re-suspended soil dust from
is responsible for millions of deaths worldwide construction sites
every year, and in South Asia, the health of around
12 million children is at risk, as they are exposed to Energy sector
air pollution six times the safe limit.23 To put things Energy production accounts for over 44% of
into perspective, in Pakistan, one in ten deaths in Pakistan’s total emissions count. This sector is
children under the age of five is caused by air responsible for emissions made through power
pollution. According to the Global Alliance on production, as well as manufacturing industries,
Health and Pollution, approximately 128,000 construction, transport, and energy consumed for
Pakistanis die annually from air pollution-related commercial, residential and agricultural
illnesses.24 consumption. Finally, fugitive fuel emissions or

23S. Khan, “Why Pakistan Has Some of the Most https://www.dw.com/en/why-pakistan-has-some-of-

Polluted Cities in the World: DW: 01.11.2021,” the-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world/a-59686579.
DW.COM, November 1, 2021, 24 Ibid
accidental emissions through leakages and faulty where provincial authorities are attentive to the
equipment are also part of the mix.25 issue of air pollution.

The interrupted supply of energy leads to more, not Crop burning

less emissions. The volatility of supply on the Crop burning is another seasonal contributor to air
national grid leads to interruptions in power, and pollution. Both India and Pakistan regularly face
hence, production capacity for industries. the seasonal issue of stubble burning in agricultural
Manufacturers try to offset this through the use of fields where farmers set fire to the remaining straw
cheap, inefficient and high-emission fuel in a bid to stubble in an agricultural field after grains have
meet orders and keep the supply line going. This in been harvested. This is a quick removal process and
turn becomes a major contributor to emissions, as considered low effort. It is also a convenient
evidenced by November and December 2021, method to get rid of weeds and pests. However, the
where factories were found to be operating in increase in pollution from smoke and the potential
secrecy at night with low-quality fuel in Lahore. loss of nutrients in the soil means that there is a
Government officials have claimed they lack the need to move on from this practice. The
capacity to find and force such factories to close government has often claimed that the practice is
down. banned, and yet, there is no enforcement. During
the winter months, crops being burned is a
The use of biomass by households across the common site in Punjab, often even visible on main
country, including fuelwood, is often compelled by highways in close proximity to agricultural land.
shortages of natural gas, or unaffordable sources of
energy. Biomass produces emissions that are Vehicular traffic
hazardous to human health, as well as air pollution. Estimates for Pakistan’s transport emissions vary,
but one estimate holds that it is responsible for
Brick kilns 43% of the total ambient air pollution in the
Brick kilns are another major source of pollution as country.26 Vehicles with poor fitness, and outdated
they use mainly coal, rubble and shoe soles as fuel, diesel engines have yet to come off the road,
emitting lethal black carbon into the atmosphere. A especially in smaller cities. Add this to the rapid,
lot of these are located around urban areas and vehicle-centric urbanisation of most city centres—
contribute significantly to air pollution. In addition as evidenced by the focus on ring roads,
to air pollution, the traditional techniques result in underpasses and bridges in cities such as Islamabad,
myriad adverse social and environmental effects Rawalpindi, Lahore and Karachi in the past decade,
including climate change, cardio-respiratory which indicates that carbon output due to vehicles
diseases, land use impacts and deforestation. The is likely to increase. The addition of several
introduction of zigzag technologies and other hundred thousand new cars each year in the major
carbon-free practices are being adopted by brick city centres exacerbates this challenge.
kilns users where enforcement is possible, and

25Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Pakistan: CO2 September 15, 2019),
Country Profile,” Our World in Data, May 11, 2020, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/527192-vehicular-
https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/pakistan. emissions-exacerbate-air-pollution.

26APP, “Vehicular Emissions Exacerbate Air

Pollution,” The News (The News International,
Agriculture and Livestock built electronic cars, but a 12% sales tax was
The other major contributor is Agriculture, imposed on electronic vehicles after a very brief
Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), at over window. The incumbent government aims to put
45% of the total emissions of the country. A as many as 100,000 electronic cars on the road by
majority of this sector is emissions through 2025, in a major bid to cut back vehicular air
livestock farming. The excess breeding of cattle,
and increase in animal-based diets across Pakistan,
has led to the high emissions.

Other industries
Pakistan’s emissions through waste and industrial
processes and product use, cumulatively only
account for 9.69% of the country’s emissions. Out
of this, a key concern is the mineral industry and
waste disposal—both solid waste and wastewater
treatment and discharge, which require a more
holistic waste management plan and more efficient Source: APP
treatment of wastewater.

Reforms Introduced pollution. It is difficult to predict if this transition

The current government has brought about will come about.
reforms in the sector through emergency measures
such as announcing a stricter enforcement and Pakistan’s energy grid distribution is also supremely
check on vehicle fitness, alongside the guidelines inefficient. With 9 coal-fired, 20 gas-fired and 20 oil
for all fuel providers to switch to Euro5 fuel. power plants currently under operation with a
However, most of Pakistan is still reliant on the cumulative power generation capability of 23,202
inexpensive and polluted Euro2 quality. MW, more than half of Pakistan’s entire capacity is
dependent on non-renewable and high-emission
An Electronic Vehicle Policy has also been fuel based power plants.28 While 26% of the
announced, although the cost of electric vehicles is country’s national grid is on hydro-electric power
still very much in the luxury car bracket as well, this does not do enough to mitigate the
internationally. With lower-than-average impact of non-renewable energy generation,
purchasing power of citizens and the lack of any especially that powered by coal. While there is a
electronic vehicle plants in Pakistan—either moratorium in place on new coal based projects,
foreign or local—buying an electric vehicle in the import of alternative sources like solar have
Pakistan is still only possible for a very small been heavily taxed which creates a prohibitive
fraction of the population in the country.27 Tax effect on both domestic and industrial usage. There
exemptions were made for importing electronic car
parts, in some cases down to 1%, and 10% on fully

27“Poor Response to Electric Vehicles Policy,” The 28“PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020-21,”
Express Tribune, January 4, 2022, Govt of Pakistan - Finance Division, accessed January
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2337165/poor- 25, 2022,
response-to-electric-vehicles-policy. http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters/15-
Energy.pdf.
is 20% tax on solar panels and wind turbines place to implement regulations. The National
according to recent policy announcements.29 Climate Change Policy 2021 does mention the
incorporation of economic incentives to promote
emission reduction by upgrading industrial
Recommendations processes and technologies; but this in and of itself
is not sufficient. The government must establish a
1. Make air quality monitoring more monitoring mechanism for industrial emissions,
transparent accompanied by penalties that prohibit emissions.
Instead of the opacity the government is going for, Similar checks have been brought in place for brick
it may be best to let independent data collectors kiln owners, with some level of success. This may
publish daily reports on AQI as the government’s come with a political fallout in some districts, but it
own numbers are both inaccurate and not easily is a step in the right direction.
accessible. Climate change cannot be beaten by
governments alone, and the misrepresentation of There must be greater coordination and regulation
data can bring about fatal outcomes. over industries to manage the level of emissions
and ensure that rules such as bans on certain types
2. Enforce better regulations for vehicular of fuels are adhered to. Better regulation in the
emissions industrial sector on the type of fuel being used must
Efforts to cut down on transport-related emissions also be prioritised.
have been lackluster at most. Policy statements
aside, implementation on the ground needs to be 4. Curb emissions in livestock farming
bolstered. The transition to higher grade fuels The emissions through cattle farming can be
needs to be managed at the supply end, through countered with an increase in production through
incentivising big industrial players to make the herd health and breeding practices, composting,
switch. Fitness certification for vehicles needs to be including additives in manure to suppress
prioritised, especially in cities where vehicular unwanted biological activity, implementing manure
emissions are high. storage covers and anaerobic digesters and finally,
feeding cattle based on nutrient needs. Developed
The targets identified in the Electric Vehicle Policy countries such as the US and the Netherlands are
are not realistic, nor does the policy look to address quickly adapting digital technology in cattle
the question of cost; electric cars are likely to stay breeding and farming to both reduce emissions and
expensive, and there is no real incentive for private keep livestock healthy, to both maximise yield and
investors to set up charging stations and other use the data to ensure that emissions are kept to a
infrastructure if there is no significant consumer minimum.
base on the horizon.

3. Increase costs for industrial emissions

There are laws and policies already in place to
prevent high emissions from industrial plants and
factories, but there is no monitoring framework in

29Sher Ali Khalti, “Taxing Renewable Energy: Political

Economy,” The News (TNS, March 13, 2022),
https://www.thenews.com.pk/tns/detail/940870-
taxing-renewable-energy.
Conclusion

We have let the climate crisis claim too many

previous lives, and cause irreparable damage, out of
inadequate preparedness for disasters, and poor
adaptation mechanisms. Spurred by international
climate commitments, we have rightly undertaken
policy and institutional reform, but even now the
costs of climate stress are too high for some to bear.
The eventual success of any climate
implementation framework is through the
maximization of security benefits and resource
sharing among the widest number of beneficiaries.
Any gains achieved through new policy protocols
must reflect improvements in key climate sectors,
such as water, agriculture, and air quality.

As this brief has tried to demonstrate, there are

long-standing challenges in each of these domains
that have solutions waiting to be implemented since
decades. It is contingent on the motivation of
policy planners and implementers how soon these
solutions are realized into practice. This brief has
examined multiple policy frameworks related to
climate action in Pakistan, each of whom have an
outsized focus on technical and administrative
approaches to adaptation and mitigation, but not
much attention is paid to human vulnerability. The
ultimate test of any intervention for climate action
must be the extent to which it reduces vulnerability
and enhances resilience, if not save lives and
livelihoods.