Phillip 3Q22 Singapore Strategy

Demand destruction spiral

SINGAPORE | STRATEGY 4 July 2022
Review: The STI was down 9.1% in 2Q22. After reversing all the gains chalked up this 2Q22 performance
year, the index was flat in 1H22. Its largest drags were banks (Figure 1), the consumer Figure 1: Banks the worst performers
sector and industrial REITs (Figure 2). Despite rising rates that will benefit banks’
interest margins, recession worries buffeted cyclicals, particularly the banks.
Reopening proxies also suffered. These included Genting Singapore and SATS. The
-8.0%
biggest gainers were helped largely by company-specific factors (Figure 3). Dividends
in specie of its financial arm benefitted Yangzijiang Shipping. Stellar earnings at Astra
International provided a tailwind for Jardine Cycle and Carriage. Sembcorp Industries
rallied on higher spark spreads in India and Singapore.
-17.2%
Outlook: The global economy is facing a downward spiral of demand destruction, -18.0%

caused by a duet of higher inflation and interest rates. Higher inflation is outpacing
income, shrinking household budgets and confidence levels. For corporates, costlier OCBC DBS UOB

energy and materials eat into margins and force cutbacks in production. The negative
spiral that ensues has workers demanding higher wages and corporates jacking up Figure 2: REITs remain under pressure
prices. Aggregate demand is further worsened by rising interest rates, triggering a
deflationary shock for asset prices. We are in the middle of this downward spiral. It is
hard to short-circuit rising inflation without demand destruction. There are silver
bullets to lowering inflation but these are of low probability: an end to the Ukraine
conflict, lowering of tariffs on goods going from China to the US and higher crude oil -2.7%
production following Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia. The most critical macro call this year -3.2% -3.3%
will be inflation. We expect inflation to peak by 4Q22, though remaining stubborn.
Supply chain conditions are easing (Figures 5, 6), commodity prices are rolling over
(Figure 7) and capacity is responding to higher commodity prices, albeit cautiously Ascendas REIT Mapletree Comm. Mapletree Ind.
(Figure 8). Any sustained rally in equities will also depend on the direction of the
Federal Reserve’s interest rates. Our base case is rates will rise to a neutral level of 3% Figure 3: Top gainers during the quarter
by the September FOMC meeting. Thereafter, we expect the Fed to step down on its
rate-hike cycle to 25 basis points or even pause. Firstly, higher interest rates work with 17.0%
a lag. We believe the Fed will pause to assess economic conditions before resorting to
13.0%
more aggressive moves. Secondly, inflation has largely been driven by supply chain
constraints and disruptions. Monetary tools cannot resolve these bottlenecks. As for
the threat of recession, leading indicators point to a weakening economy, raising the 6.7%
probability of a recession in the US. But computing probabilities is pointless. A
probability of say, 60%, only means the predictors were not wrong, whatever the
outcome. Economic conditions in Singapore remain resilient. Industrial growth is
YZJ Jardine C&C Sembcorp Ind.
hovering at 9% this year. This is slower than last year's 14% but far stronger than the
pre-pandemic level of 2% (Figure 9). Foreign direct investments into the country have Source (Fig 1-3): PSR, Bloomberg, 30 June 2022
recovered sharply. They are close to the record levels of 2019 (Figure 10). Employment
is surging with record vacancies (Figure 11). Paul Chew (+65 6212 1851)
Recommendation: We remain positive on the banking sector. Banks benefit from Head of Research
higher rates through their excess liquidity or float and the repricing of variable loans. [email protected]
Benefits immediately flow through to the bottom line. Weaker macros and inflation
will likely lead to modestly higher general provisioning. Staff costs will escalate due to
a robust employment market. We prefer OCBC (OCBC SP, BUY, TP S$14.22) for its
highest capital ratios, high CASA, exposure to a reopening of China and Hong King and
dividend upside. Softer economic conditions will raise provisions but not significantly.
For instance, the bank’s loan growth has been toeing nominal GDP growth, unlike the
2008 and 2016 provisioning cycles when loans outpaced GDP by 2-5% points over two
years (Figure 12). The margin call now is in crypto assets. Residential property prices
have been climbing back, to double-digit levels not seen since end-2019 and 2011.
New launches have sold more than 70% just over a weekend. A dearth of supply with
unsold inventories of 14,000 is the lowest in more than a decade and only 1.2 years to
sales (Figure 13). Rising prices work in the favour of developers with planned launches
such as City Developments (CIT SP, BUY, TP S$9.19).
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)
Ref. No.: SG2022_0094
 3Q22 OUTLOOK STRATEGY
Figure 4: Sell-down on tech and commodity cyclicals Figure 5: Container rates down 37% from the peak
MSCI BONDS GOLD CMDTY
STI REITS APXJ S&P 500 NASDAQ ETF ETF ETF
Container Rates (US$ per 40 foot box)
15,000

21%
10,000

-1%
-4%

-7%

-6%
-8%
-8%

-9%
5,000
-11%

-11%

-16%

-17%
-17%

-21%

-22%
-30%

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
YTD22 2Q22 Shanghai to LA Shanghai to Rotterdam
Source: PSR, Bloomberg Source: PSR, CEIC

Figure 6: Global supply chain starting to ease Figure 7: Some signs commodities are rolling over
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Commodity Prices
700
5

4 600

3
500

2
400
1

300
0

-1 200
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: PSR, Federal Reserve Source: PSR, CEIC, CRB

Figure 8: Oil CAPEX is 40% below peak despite the energy shock Figure 9: Manufacturing activity above pre-pandemic levels
350 Oil Major Capex proxy (US$ bn) SG: Industrial production (3MMA YoY)
328
70%

300
50%

30%
250

10%

200 191
-10%

-30%
150

-50%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e IPI Electronics

Source: PSR, CEIC Source: PSR, CEIC

Page | 2 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)

 3Q22 OUTLOOK STRATEGY
Figure 10: Singapore FDI have climbed back to record Figure 11: Spike in job vacancies
SG: Foreign Direct Investment SG: Job Vacancies (000 persons)
(US$bn - 4Q cumulative)
110 110

90 90

70
70

50
50

30
30
10
10 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2021
2005 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2021 Vacancies Vacancies: PMET
Source: PSR, CEIC Source: PSR, CEIC
Figure 12: Loans growth not outpacing nominal GDP Figure 13: Decade lows in supply or unsold inventories
Nominal GDP growth vs Loans growth (YoY %) SG: Unsold residential units (Excluding EC)
40 40,000 4.5

30 4.0
35,000

3.5
20 30,000

Average 2.7 years 3.0

10 25,000
2.5
0
20,000
2.0
-10 14,087
15,000
1.5
-20
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 10,000 1.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Nominal GDP Growth Loans Growth Unsold homes (units - LHS) Inventory to 12m sales (years)
Source: PSR, CEIC Source: PSR, CEIC

Figure 14: Singapore valuations at attractive levels Figure 15: Sharp recovery in RevPAR, the re-opening theme is intact
STI: Forward PE (x) Revenue per Available Room (S$)
20 250

EXPENSIVE
18 200 169
159

16 + 1 std dev 150

14 100
Average 72

- 1 std dev
12 50
CHEAP

10
0
2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2021
Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22
Source: PSR, Bloomberg Source: PSR, CEIC

Page | 3 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)

 3Q22 OUTLOOK STRATEGY
Phillip Absolute 10 Figure 16: Monthly movements
During the quarter our model portfolio was down 3.7% YoY. Banking stocks were the largest Absolute STI
drag on the portfolio: DBS (-17%) and OCBC (-8%). Worries of a global slowdown and recession 10
Jan22 0.0% 4.0%
have punished cyclical stocks. Positive contributors to the portfolio were City Developments,
Feb22 1.1% -0.2%
Keppel Corp, Ascott Residence Trust and HRnetGroup. The rebound in property prices post- Mar22 3.7% 5.1%
December 2021 cooling measure will drive up development margins. Keppel Corp rallied Apr22 1.4% -1.5%
following the agreement to dispose of the marine business and uncompleted rigs. Ascott rides May22 -3.7% -3.7%
on recovery in international travel and RevPAR. HRnetGroup pays out a dividend yield of 5% and Jun22 -1.4% -4.0%
will benefit from the spike in job demand and vacancy rates. Jul22
4Q21 - Add: CDL, HRnetGroup; Delete: Ascendas REIT, CapitaLand Investment Aug22
Sep22
1Q22 - Add: Del Monte Pacific; Delete: Thai Beverage
Oct22
2Q22 - Add: OCBC; Delete: Q & M Dental
Nov22
3Q22 - Add: Singtel; Delete: Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Dec22
YTD 1.0% -0.7%
Strategy commentary: Rising interest rates make it harder to keep leveraged yield stocks such Out/(Under)perf. 1.7%
as REITs in the portfolio. Our strategy is to ride on rising interest rates through banks with their Source: Bloomberg, PSR,
variable rate loans and excess deposits. Beneficiaries of the re-opening of borders and activities
are Ascott Residence Trust, ComfortDelgro and SingTel. Our mid-cap growth names are Del Performance is for illustration only
and excludes brokerage fees,
Monte Pacific and HRnetGroup. dividends and monthly rebalancing
Deletions from our model: We removed Frasers Centrepoint Trust. We find the current costs.
dividend yields unattractive as interest rates climb up further. We added Singtel due to the
return of roaming revenue as borders re-open, economic recovery in emerging markets and
potential restructuring or monetization Bharti and Optus.
Stock commentaries
Company Comments
1. Ascott Res. We believe travel is at an early stage of recovery. The first wave is leisure travellers, the next will be business travel
Trust and the final recovery phase is the re-opening of China borders.
2. Asian PayTV Dividend yield of 8% is attractive and well supported by annual free cash flow of S$70-S$80mn vs $18mn payout.
3. DBS With the highest CASA ratio, DBS is the major beneficiary of rising interest rates. We expect a benign provisioning
cycle due to tepid lending and resilient real estate prices.
4. Del Monte 4Q22 earnings surged 38% YoY, helped by strong sales in the US. Revenue in the US jumped 25% on the back of new
product sales, rising prices and households shifting consumption away from restaurants to home dining.
5. HRnetGroup With 700 recruiters across the region, the company will benefit from the rise in volume and salary of hiring.
6. OCBC OCBC is our preferred pick due to the upside in dividends and lower provisioning cycle.
7. Singtel The three share price catalysts are the rebound in roaming revenue, recovery in emerging markets and restructuring
or monetization of assets and mobile holdings.
8. CDL A pipeline of more than 2,000 units to ride the resilient Singapore residential market. Another driver of earnings is
the recovery in the hospitality sector. The stock trades at a 43% discount to RNAV.
9. ComfortDelgro Our proxy to reopening theme with the huge operating leverage and share price is still 40% below pre-pandemic
levels and net cash balance sheet of S$578mn.
10. KeppelCorp Re-rating catalyst is obtaining the requisite approvals for the SMM deal, the release of the combined entity
integration plan and its plan for the $500mn in cash it will receive from the SMM deal.

Figure 17: Phillip Absolute 10 for 3Q22

Company 1M 3M YTD Rating Target Px (S$) Share Px (S$) Upside Mkt Cap (US$m) Dvd. Yield
Yield
As cott Res i dence Tr. -1.7% 0.9% 10.7% Accumulate 1.23 1.14 8% 2,683 3.8%
As i a n Pa yTV -5.3% -7.5% -7.5% Accumulate 0.15 0.124 21% 160 8.1%

Dividend / Earnings Growth

DBS -4.1% -17.2% -9.1% Buy 41.60 29.68 40% 54,688 4.0%
Del Monte Pa ci fi c 5.6% -1.3% -7.4% Buy 0.69 0.38 84% 522 4.5%
HRnetGroup 6.9% 0.6% -3.7% Buy 1.18 0.78 52% 556 5.4%
OCBC -3.7% -8.0% -0.1% Buy 14.22 11.39 25% 36,651 4.7%
Si ngtel (New) -2.3% -4.2% 9.1% Accumulate 3.05 2.53 21% 29,915 3.7%

Re-rating Plays
Ci ty Devel opments -1.3% 6.2% 22.8% Buy 9.19 8.15 13% 5,292 1.0%
ComfortDel gro -2.8% -6.0% 0.0% Buy 1.80 1.4 29% 2,172 3.0%
Keppel Corp. -5.8% 1.1% 26.8% Buy 7.07 6.49 9% 8,229 5.1%
Avera ge -1.5% -3.5% 4.1% 30% 4.3%
Source: Bloomberg, PSR ^ Dividend yields are historical for all stocks
Page | 4 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)
 3Q22 OUTLOOK STRATEGY

Contact Information (Singapore Research Team)

Head of Research Research Admin
Paul Chew – [email protected] Qystina Azli - [email protected]

Consumer | Industrial | Conglomerates Property | REITs Banking & Finance

Terence Chua – [email protected] Darren Chan - [email protected] Glenn Thum – [email protected]

US Technology Analyst (Internet) US Technology Analyst (Software/Services) Credit Analyst

Jonathan Woo – [email protected] Ambrish Shah – [email protected] Shawn Sng - [email protected]

Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)

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 3Q22 OUTLOOK STRATEGY
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