California Auto Outlook

TM
Publication Sponsored By:

Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market

Volume 18, Number 4
Released November 2022 Covering Third Quarter 2022

California New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Increase in 2023

California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2023 KEY TRENDS IN
NEW VEHICLE
2.5
2.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.09 MARKET
ANNUAL
New vehicle regs. (millions)

1.93 1.86
2.0 1.80
1.64 1.68 1.77
TRENDS 1.5
1.45
1.29
1.62
Predicting the impact of supply
1.17 chain issues has been difficult,
1.04
1.0
to say the least. Lost production
due to the microchip shortage
0.5 during 2022 was significantly
higher than expected at the
0.0 beginning of the year. As a result,
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22* '23* vehicle sales projections have
Years been lowered during the year.
Registrations for all of 2022 are
Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. *2022 and 2023 forecasts by Auto Outlook. now predicted to decline 9.7
percent from 2021.
California New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales Demand is softening due
YTD ‘21 and YTD ‘22 thru September to deteriorating economic
conditions, but pent-up demand
California U.S. is accumulating. Assuming
YTD '21 YTD '22 Change YTD '21 YTD '22 Change supply chain issues ease
Registrations during the next 12 months,
TWO YEAR TOTAL 1,484,862 1,245,748 -16.1% 11,768,255 10,236,245 -13.0% Auto Outlook believes that the
market will increase next year.
Car 509,554 394,315 -22.6% 2,727,094 2,162,757 -20.7%
PERSPECTIVE Light Truck 975,308 851,433 -12.7% 9,041,161 8,073,488 -10.7%
It would likely take a severe
economic downturn for the
Domestic 454,480 448,781 -1.3% 4,736,335 4,553,339 -3.9% market to fall, while the chances
European 225,279 187,294 -16.9% 1,223,286 1,075,711 -12.1% for an upside surprise are above
Japanese 682,790 496,247 -27.3% 4,633,154 3,519,869 -24.0% average. Current forecast is
Korean 122,313 113,426 -7.3% 1,175,480 1,087,326 -7.5% for registrations in the state to
Market Share
reach 1.77 million units next
year, a 5.4 percent increase from
Car 34.3 31.7 -2.6 23.2 21.1 -2.1 this year.
Light Truck 65.7 68.3 2.6 76.8 78.9 2.1
Domestic 30.6 36.0 5.4 40.2 44.5 4.3 The California new vehicle
European 15.2 15.0 -0.2 10.4 10.5 0.1 market slipped 16.1 percent
during the first nine months of
Japanese 46.1 39.8 -6.3 39.4 34.4 -5.0
2022 versus 2021, as limited
Korean 8.2 9.1 0.9 10.0 10.6 0.6 inventories and strong year
earlier sales impacted results.
Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. U.S. market declined by 13
Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News. percent during the same period.

California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Light trucks accounted for 68.3
percent of the California new
Percent Change vs. Year Earlier
vehicle market compared to 78.9
QUARTERLY percent in the Nation.
% change vs. year earlier

96.0%
RESULTS As shown on the graph to the
left, the state market posted
7.8% its fourth consecutive double
digit percentage decline in the
-15.5% -13.8% -11.9% Third Quarter of this year. That
-21.6%
streak will almost certainly end
in the Fourth Quarter of this year,
2Q '21 vs. 3Q '21 vs. 4Q '21 vs. 1Q '22 vs. 2Q '22 vs. 3Q '22 vs. however, as registrations should
2Q '20 3Q '20 4Q '20 1Q '21 2Q '21 3Q '21 increase versus weak year earlier
levels.
Data source: AutoCount data from Experian.
Page 2 California Auto Outlook

SEGMENT MARKET SHARE TRENDS

SUVs Accounted for 51 Percent of California New Vehicle Market So Far This Year

Segment Market Shares in California Segment Market Shares in California

YTD 2021 thru September YTD 2022 thru September

Non-Luxury Mid- Non-Luxury Mid-

Size & Large Size & Large
Cars, 10% Cars, 9%
Luxury & Sports Non-Luxury
Luxury & Sports Non-Luxury Cars, 11% SUVs, 34%
Cars, 9% SUVs, 33%

Non-Luxury SUV Share Non-Luxury SUV Share

YTD ‘21: YTD ‘22:

34%
Small Cars, 12%
Small Cars, 16%
33%
Pickups and
Luxury SUVs, Vans, 17%
Pickups and 15% Luxury SUVs,
Vans, 17% 17%

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first nine months of 2021 and 2022.

HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Estimated Electric Vehicle Market Share Approaches 16 Percent

Estimated Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share

Hybrid/electric vehicle market
share, YTD ‘22:
18.0%
29.9%
16.0%

14.0%
Estimated Hybrid and Electric New Vehicle Registrations and Market Share
12.0%
Market Share

YTD
10.0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

8.0% Electric registrations 99121 106752 101628 176357 196828

6.0% Electric share 4.6% 5.1% 6.2% 9.5% 15.8%

Hybrid regs. (excl. plug ins) 92658 117218 113103 196777 139524
4.0%
Hybrid share (excl. plug ins) 4.3% 5.6% 6.9% 10.6% 11.2%
2.0%
Plug in hybrid regs. 64644 52329 31144 61261 36127
0.0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD '22 Plug in hybrid share 3.0% 2.5% 1.9% 3.3% 2.9%

Electric Hybrid (excl. plug ins) Plug in Hybrid

The graph above shows the estimated hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle market share in the state. Registrations by powertrain for
vehicles equipped with multiple engine types were estimated by Auto Outlook. The estimates are based on model registrations compiled
by Experian, and engine installation rates collected from other sources.
Covering Third Quarter 2022 Page 3

MODEL RANKINGS

Tesla Model Y Retains Top Spot in California Market

The table below shows the top five
selling models during the first nine
BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTS
months of 2022 in 18 segments. In
addition to unit registrations, it also Small Cars: Toyota Corolla Full Size Pickup: Chevrolet Silverado
shows each model’s market share in its
Mid-Size and Large Cars: Toyota Camry Compact SUV: Toyota RAV4
respective segment. Sales results so
far this year were primarily determined Near Luxury Cars: Tesla Model 3 3 Row Mid-Size SUV: Toyota Highlander
by vehicle production and availability.
Comp./Mid Size Pickup: Toyota Tacoma Luxury Mid Size SUV: Lexus RX
New registrations of the Honda Civic
and Toyota Camry, two perennial
top-sellers in the state, were impacted
by diminished inventories.

Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD 2022 thru September)
Small Cars Mid Size and Large Cars Sports/Pony Cars Near Luxury Cars
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Toyota Corolla 32216 25.1 Toyota Camry 40358 37.6 Ford Mustang 5644 34.3 Tesla Model 3 56851 54.3
Honda Civic 23723 18.5 Honda Accord 23933 22.3 Dodge Challenger 4386 26.6 Lexus ES 7707 7.4
Kia Forte 14553 11.3 Nissan Altima 13698 12.8 Toyota 86 2049 12.4 BMW 3-Series 5509 5.3
Nissan Sentra 8264 6.4 Dodge Charger 7994 7.4 Chevrolet Camaro 1962 11.9 BMW 4-Series 4616 4.4
Toyota Prius 8004 6.2 Chevrolet Malibu 7956 7.4 Toyota Supra 811 4.9 Mercedes C-Class 4251 4.1
Luxury and High End Sports Cars Compact/Mid Size Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Van
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Tesla Model S 7683 20.8 Toyota Tacoma 28342 45.4 Chevrolet Silverado 29543 28.0 Toyota Sienna 8277 41.5
BMW 5-Series 3785 10.2 Nissan Frontier 6233 10.0 Ford F-Series 29055 27.6 Chrysler Pacifica 6542 32.8
Mercedes E-Class 3518 9.5 Ford Maverick 5981 9.6 Ram Pickup 25698 24.4 Honda Odyssey 3229 16.2
Mercedes S-Class 3486 9.4 Chevrolet Colorado 5621 9.0 GMC Sierra 12922 12.3 Kia Carnival 1080 5.4
Chevrolet Corvette 2463 6.7 Ford Ranger 5471 8.8 Toyota Tundra 7113 6.7 Chrysler Voyager 791 4.0
Large Van Subcompact SUV Compact SUV 2 Row Mid Size SUV
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Ford Transit Connect 7515 33.6 Subaru Crosstrek 15430 20.2 Toyota RAV4 44738 25.0 Subaru Outback 11995 21.3
Mercedes Sprinter 6047 27.1 Honda HR-V 12380 16.2 Honda CR-V 19087 10.7 Toyota 4Runner 9479 16.8
Ram Promaster 4539 20.3 Kia Niro 5567 7.3 Jeep Wrangler 13943 7.8 Ford Mustang Mach-E 7310 13.0
Chevrolet Express 1699 7.6 Nissan Kicks 5509 7.2 Mazda CX-5 12706 7.1 Hyundai Santa Fe 6292 11.2
Ford E-Series 1676 7.5 Volkswagen Taos 5480 7.2 Subaru Forester 9066 5.1 Ford Edge 5841 10.4
3 Row Mid Size SUV Large SUV Luxury Subcompact SUV Luxury Compact SUV
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Toyota Highlander 19778 22.7 Ford Bronco 8188 28.2 Audi Q3 3183 27.3 Tesla Model Y 61544 52.1
Ford Explorer 11729 13.5 Chevrolet Tahoe 5274 18.2 Lexus UX 2263 19.4 Mercedes GLC-Class 11821 10.0
Honda Pilot 8007 9.2 Jeep Grand Wagoneer 3076 10.6 Mercedes GLA-Class 1959 16.8 BMW X3 8009 6.8
Kia Sorento 6851 7.9 Chevrolet Suburban 2939 10.1 Volvo XC40 1441 12.4 Audi Q5 7136 6.0
Kia Telluride 6620 7.6 GMC Yukon 2550 8.8 BMW X1 1059 9.1 Lexus NX 6947 5.9
Luxury Mid Size SUV Luxury Large SUV Top Selling Passenger Cars Top Selling Light Trucks
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Lexus RX 12871 18.8 Cadillac Escalade 3546 24.6 Tesla Model 3 56851 14.4 Tesla Model Y 61544 7.2
Mercedes GLE-Class 9121 13.3 Mercedes GLS-Class 3281 22.7 Toyota Camry 40358 10.2 Toyota RAV4 44738 5.3
BMW X5 9078 13.3 BMW X7 2833 19.6 Toyota Corolla 32216 8.2 Chevrolet Silverado 29543 3.5
Tesla Model X 7467 10.9 Mercedes G-Class 1351 9.4 Honda Accord 23933 6.1 Ford F-Series 29055 3.4
Acura MDX 3604 5.3 Land Rover Range Rover 1307 9.1 Honda Civic 23723 6.0 Toyota Tacoma 28342 3.3

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Figures for Prius include Prius Prime.
Page 4 California Auto Outlook

BRAND SUMMARY

Toyota Maintains Big Lead in California New Vehicle Market

Percent Change in Brand Registrations California and U.S. Market Share - YTD 2022 thru Sept.
YTD 2022 thru September vs. YTD 2021 (Top 15 selling brands in state)
(Top 30 selling brands in state)

17.4%
Toyota
13.4%
Tesla 62.8%
Genesis 41.9% 10.7%
Tesla
3.3%
Kia -1.6%
Mercedes -3.0% 8.5%
Ford
12.8%
Chrysler -5.4%
Ford -6.3% 7.8%
Honda
6.4%
BMW -9.9%
Cadillac -10.7% 6.7%
Chevrolet
10.7%
Subaru -11.7%
GMC -12.7% 4.8%
Kia
5.1%
MINI -14.7%
Porsche -15.7% 4.4%
Mercedes
2.6%
Hyundai -16.6%
Lexus -16.9% 4.4%
Nissan
4.9%
Jeep -17.6%
Lincoln -19.3% 3.9%
Subaru
3.9%
Chevrolet -20.4%
Toyota -21.3% 3.8%
Hyundai
5.2%
Ram -21.9%
Dodge -23.3% BMW 3.6%
2.3%
Audi -24.0%
Volkswagen -27.0% 3.0%
Lexus
1.9%
Volvo -27.1%
Mitsubishi -29.3% 2.9%
Jeep
5.3%
Nissan -29.4%
Mazda -34.2% 2.4% State
Ram
4.1%
Acura -37.4% U.S.
Honda -41.1% Volkswagen 2.1%
2.3%
Land Rover -43.8%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Infiniti -45.4%
Market Share
-130.0% -80.0% -30.0% 20.0% 70.0% 120.0%
Percent change in registrations

Registrations increased for Tesla Toyota, Tesla, Ford, Honda, and

and Genesis. Kia, Mercedes, Chevrolet were market share
Chrysler, Ford, and BMW had leaders in California.
declines of less than 10 percent.

Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. market share: Automotive News.
Covering Third Quarter 2022 Page 5

BRAND REGISTRATIONS

Detailed Results for All Brands in California Market

C a lifo r n ia Ne w C a r a n d L ig h t T r u c k Re g is tr a tio n s
Third Quarter Year to date thru September
Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%)
3Q '21 3Q '22 % Change 3Q '21 3Q '22 Change YTD '21 YTD '22 % Change YTD '21 YTD '22 Change
TOTAL 445,633 392,401 -11.9 1,484,862 1,245,748 -16.1

Acura 5,036 2,350 -53.3 1.1 0.6 -0.5 14,459 9,055 -37.4 1.0 0.7 -0.3
Alfa Romeo 736 757 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 2,499 1,757 -29.7 0.2 0.1 -0.1
Audi 8,017 7,966 -0.6 1.8 2.0 0.2 31,442 23,891 -24.0 2.1 1.9 -0.2
BMW 16,112 15,182 -5.8 3.6 3.9 0.3 50,207 45,228 -9.9 3.4 3.6 0.2
Buick 1,401 716 -48.9 0.3 0.2 -0.1 5,543 2,442 -55.9 0.4 0.2 -0.2
Cadillac 2,247 2,658 18.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 8,528 7,612 -10.7 0.6 0.6 0.0
Chevrolet 27,142 29,702 9.4 6.1 7.6 1.5 104,123 82,928 -20.4 7.0 6.7 -0.3
Chrysler 1,223 2,364 93.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 8,543 8,081 -5.4 0.6 0.6 0.0
Dodge 5,339 5,849 9.6 1.2 1.5 0.3 19,115 14,667 -23.3 1.3 1.2 -0.1
Ford 27,362 31,748 16.0 6.1 8.1 2.0 113,066 105,894 -6.3 7.6 8.5 0.9
Genesis 1,661 2,129 28.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 3,738 5,306 41.9 0.3 0.4 0.1
GMC 7,948 7,883 -0.8 1.8 2.0 0.2 27,339 23,880 -12.7 1.8 1.9 0.1
Honda 52,066 24,649 -52.7 11.7 6.3 -5.4 165,633 97,639 -41.1 11.2 7.8 -3.4
Hyundai 17,431 16,679 -4.3 3.9 4.3 0.4 57,254 47,776 -16.6 3.9 3.8 -0.1
Infiniti 1,469 992 -32.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 6,458 3,525 -45.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1
Jaguar 605 339 -44.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2,454 1,113 -54.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1
Jeep 14,223 11,643 -18.1 3.2 3.0 -0.2 43,710 36,007 -17.6 2.9 2.9 0.0
Kia 20,295 21,542 6.1 4.6 5.5 0.9 61,321 60,344 -1.6 4.1 4.8 0.7
Land Rover 3,410 1,937 -43.2 0.8 0.5 -0.3 13,037 7,321 -43.8 0.9 0.6 -0.3
Lexus 14,610 13,027 -10.8 3.3 3.3 0.0 45,308 37,657 -16.9 3.1 3.0 -0.1
Lincoln 771 959 24.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 3,774 3,045 -19.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1
Maserati 336 232 -31.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 988 918 -7.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mazda 11,846 7,248 -38.8 2.7 1.8 -0.9 38,187 25,134 -34.2 2.6 2.0 -0.6
Mercedes 16,519 19,551 18.4 3.7 5.0 1.3 57,074 55,366 -3.0 3.8 4.4 0.6
MINI 1,516 1,350 -10.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 4,381 3,735 -14.7 0.3 0.3 0.0
Mitsubishi 1,469 642 -56.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 5,057 3,574 -29.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
Nissan 20,733 14,025 -32.4 4.7 3.6 -1.1 78,030 55,077 -29.4 5.3 4.4 -0.9
Other 854 862 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 2,779 2,782 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
Porsche 4,219 3,505 -16.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 13,595 11,461 -15.7 0.9 0.9 0.0
Ram 11,498 9,820 -14.6 2.6 2.5 -0.1 38,696 30,233 -21.9 2.6 2.4 -0.2
Subaru 16,485 15,743 -4.5 3.7 4.0 0.3 54,465 48,086 -11.7 3.7 3.9 0.2
Tesla 32,165 42,650 32.6 7.2 10.9 3.7 82,040 133,545 62.8 5.5 10.7 5.2
Toyota 83,384 63,662 -23.7 18.7 16.2 -2.5 275,193 216,500 -21.3 18.5 17.4 -1.1
Volkswagen 11,262 9,828 -12.7 2.5 2.5 0.0 35,152 25,663 -27.0 2.4 2.1 -0.3
Volvo 4,243 2,212 -47.9 1.0 0.6 -0.4 11,674 8,506 -27.1 0.8 0.7 -0.1
Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

The table above shows new light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in California. Figures are shown for the Third Quarters of 2021
and 2022, and year-to-date totals. Vehicle registrations are recorded based on when the vehicle title information is processed by the state,
which typically occurs after the vehicle is sold. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow.

California Auto Outlook

Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc., PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone 610-640-1233 Email: [email protected]
Any material quoted must be attributed to California Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the California New Car Dealers Association.
Data source must also be shown as “Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.” Please contact CNCDA with any questions or comments regarding
the publication. Copyright: Auto Outlook, Inc. November 2022.
At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us.  However, our forecasts are derived from third-party
data and contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled.  As a result, Auto
Outlook can make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based
upon such data.   Auto Outlook expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. 
Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.
 Page 6 California Auto Outlook

BREAKDOWN OF RETAIL AND FLEET MARKETS

Retail Market Down 16.6 Percent Thru September; Fleet Registrations Decline 13.3 Percent
California New Car and Light Truck Retail and Fleet Registrations - YTD ‘20, ‘21, & ‘22 thru Sep.

900000

800000

700000

600000
Registrations

500000 PERCENT CHANGE:

YTD ‘22 thru Sept. vs. YTD ‘21
400000
Retail cars: DOWN 22.7%
300000
Retail light trucks: DOWN 13.3%
200000
Fleet cars: DOWN 21.9%
100000
Fleet light trucks: DOWN 9.3%
0
Retail Light Trucks Retail Passenger Cars Fleet Light Trucks Fleet Passenger Cars

YTD '20 YTD '21 YTD '22

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

REGIONAL MARKETS IN CALIFORNIA

Northern and Southern California Markets Post Similar Results

New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (excluding fleets) YTD thru Sep. Percent Change in New Retail Registrations - YTD ‘22 vs. YTD ‘21
North and South California YTD '21 YTD '22 % chg.
Statewide Total 1,244,271 1,037,353 -16.6%
Cars 431,598 333,449 -22.7% Northern California
Light Trucks 812,673 703,904 -13.4% Cars DOWN 21.3%
Northern California 418,615 350,717 -16.2% Light trucks DOWN 13.8%
Cars 134,803 106,049 -21.3%
Light Trucks 283,812 244,668 -13.8%
Southern California 825,656 686,636 -16.8%
Cars 296,795 227,400 -23.4%
Light Trucks 528,861 459,236 -13.2%
Selected Regional Markets
San Francisco Bay 216,907 188,019 -13.3%
Cars 72,905 60,249 -17.4%
Light Trucks 144,002 127,770 -11.3%
LA and Orange Counties 468,282 384,464 -17.9%
Cars 175,453 132,798 -24.3%
Light Trucks 292,829 251,666 -14.1%
San Diego County 110,369 94,409 -14.5% Southern California
Cars 33,928 27,727 -18.3% Cars DOWN 23.4%
Light Trucks 76,441 66,682 -12.8% Light trucks DOWN 13.2%

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

Covering Third Quarter 2022 Page 7

SEGMENT CLOSE-UP: MID SIZE SUVs

Toyota and Ford Lead State Mid Size SUV Segment

Model Sales Leaders
Top 10 Selling Models in State for Two Row and Three Row Mid Size SUVs Two
YTD ‘22 thru September Key
Trends
Market Share for Two Row Mid Size SUVs Market Share for Three Row Mid Size SUVs
Mid Size SUV segment
Subaru Outback 21.3% Toyota Highlander 22.7%
#1 is performing better
than overall market...
Toyota 4Runner 16.8% Ford Explorer 13.5%
% Change in New Vehicle Registrations
YTD ‘19 thru Sept. to YTD ‘22
Ford Mustang Mach-E 13.0% Honda Pilot 9.2%

Hyundai Santa Fe 11.2% Kia Sorento 7.9% Mid Size SUVs: DOWN 13.2%

Ford Edge 10.4% Kia Telluride 7.6% Industry DOWN 21.6%

Toyota Venza 7.9% Chevrolet Traverse 6.1%

Two row SUVs have
been gaining market
Jeep Grand Cherokee 4.9% Subaru Ascent 6.0%
#2 share in Mid Size SUV
Honda Passport 4.7% Hyundai Palisade 5.5% segment...

Chevrolet Blazer 4.1% Jeep Grand Cherokee L 5.1%

2 Row SUV Share of Mid Size SUV
Segment - YTD ‘19 and YTD ‘22

VW Atlas Cross Sport 3.0% Nissan Pathfinder 4.6%

YTD 2019: 36.0%

YTD 2022: 39.3%

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

Brand Market Share in Mid Size SUV Segment, California and U.S. Markets - YTD 2022 thru September

Toyota, Ford, and Subaru market shares were

25.0
higher in the state than in the U.S.
23.5
State
U.S.
Share of Mid Size SUV Segment (%)

20.0
17.3 17.3

15.0
12.9
12.0
11.1
10.2 10.0
9.4
10.0 8.8
7.7 7.4 6.9 7.3
5.4 5.0
5.0 3.6 3.6 4.0
3.4

0.0
Toyota Ford Subaru Kia Hyundai Honda Chevrolet Jeep Nissan Volkswagen

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Figures in the graph above include retail transactions only. U.S. figures estimated by Auto Outlook.
Page 8 California Auto Outlook

CALIFORNIA USED VEHICLE MARKET

California Used Vehicle Market Declined 13.1 Percent During First Nine Months of 2022

TWO KEY TRENDS IN

Percent Change in New and Used Vehicle Registrations - YTD ‘22 thru Sept. vs. YTD ‘21 USED VEHICLE
MARKET
Used vehicle registrations in the
state declined 13.1 percent during
4.8% the first nine months of this year
01. versus a year earlier, a smaller drop
than the 16.1 percent fall in the new
vehicle market.

As the year has progressed, strong

-9.1%
headwinds have emerged that have
-13.1%
-16.1% impacted used vehicle sales. All
of these headwinds are related to
-23.6% vehicle supplies and pricing. Below
average new vehicle sales during
the past two years have reduced the
availability of newer used cars and
02. have resulted in fewer trade ins. In
New vehicles All used vehicles 3-year-old or newer 4- to 6-year-old 7- to 10-year-old
used vehicles used vehicles used vehicles addition, escalating used vehicle
prices in 2021 and the first half of
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. this year, combined with a weakening
economy have cooled demand. Used
vehicle prices have softened over the
past several months, however, which
should provide a mild boost.
USED VEHICLE BRAND MARKET SHARE

Toyota is Top Seller in California Used Vehicle Market

The graph below shows used light vehicle registrations by brand for two age categories: vehicles newer than four years old, and vehicles
five to eight years old. Brands are positioned from left to right based on market share for four year old or newer vehicles.

Brand Market Share for Top 15 Selling Brands, by Vehicle Age (YTD ‘22 thru September)

18.0% Toyota was the best-selling brand

for 4-year-old or newer vehicles.
16.0%
4-yrs.-old or newer

14.0%
5- to 8-yrs.-old
Ford market share was higher
12.0% for 5- to 8-year-old vehicles.

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.