Chapter 6 - Scheduling

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 21
At a glance
Powered by AI
The key takeaways are that proper planning is important for construction projects, and planning has advantages during various stages including before, during and after project completion. Planning techniques discussed include network scheduling.

Some advantages of construction planning include helping estimate resources, project duration and costs before starting, and facilitating ordering of materials and resource utilization during construction. Planning also serves as a database for future projects.

The steps involved in construction planning discussed are choice of technology and construction methods, determining activities, ascertaining sequential relationships, determining activity durations, and presenting the information in a schedule or network.

Construction Management Lecture Notes

CHAPETR VI
CONSTRUCTION PROJECT SCHEDULING TECHNIQUES
6.1. Planning Studies

A trail and error approach is no longer valid for the construction industry and proper
planning is now vital. The amount of detailing in planning is likely to be the function of the
size of the firm, the complexity of the project and the expertise of the management.

Usually may things interfere with the construction thus making the task of planning and
controlling much difficult. Obviously planning will not automatically solve or answer these
problems. It serves as a guideline, which is flexible enough to accommodate the changes and
be used for checking planned against the actual executed work.

6.1.1. Advantages of Planning: -

Planning has advantages at all of the following stages of construction:


1. Before the project is started:
It is important for the client to estimate his resources and to prepare the resources
properly and also know the estimated project duration.
And helps the consultant to evaluate the tenders submitted by contractors before
the project is started.
2. During the construction stage:
Ordering of materials: like for example doors on time to fix it according to the
time schedule.
For resource utilization like equipments.
3. After completion of a project:
Serve as a data base for future planning and scheduling.

6.1.2. Construction Planning – Initial Stage

Before the actual formation of the plan the following should be considered:
The planning/scheduling technique to be used
The number and type of programs required.
The purpose of the program.

The programs usually developed are:


Performance based on Financial Schedule
Equipment Schedule
Material delivery Schedule
Manpower Schedule

__________________________________________________________________
74
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

In developing a construction plan, it is common to adopt a primary emphasis on either cost


control or on schedule control as illustrated in Fig. 6-1. Some projects are primarily divided
into expense categories with associated costs. In these cases, construction planning is cost or
expense oriented. Within the categories of expenditure, a distinction is made between costs
incurred directly in the performance of an activity and indirectly for the accomplishment of
the project. For example, borrowing expenses for project financing and overhead items are
commonly treated as indirect costs. For other projects, scheduling of work activities over time
is critical and is emphasized in the planning process. In this case, the planner insures that the
proper precedences among activities are maintained and that efficient scheduling of the
available resources prevails. Traditional scheduling procedures emphasize the maintenance of
task precedences (resulting in critical path scheduling procedures) or efficient use of resources
over time (resulting in job shop scheduling procedures). Finally, most complex projects
require consideration of cost and scheduling over time, so that planning, monitoring and
record keeping must consider both dimensions. In these cases, the integration of schedule and
budget information is a major concern.

Figure 6-1 Alternative Emphases in Construction Planning

The construction planning may be said to consist of the following steps:

Choice of technology and construction method,


Determination of the job steps or ‘activities’ that must be performed to construct the
project,
Ascertainment of the sequential relationships among these activities,
Determination of duration of activities, and
The presentation of this planning information in the form of a schedule or network,

__________________________________________________________________
75
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

1) Choice of Technology and Construction Method:

As in the development of appropriate alternatives for facility design, choices of appropriate


technology and methods for construction are often ill-structured yet critical ingredients in
the success of the project. For example, a decision whether to pump or to transport concrete
in buckets will directly affect the cost and duration of tasks involved in building construction.
A decision between these two alternatives should consider the relative costs, reliabilities, and
availability of equipment for the two transport methods. Unfortunately, the exact
implications of different methods depend upon numerous considerations for which
information may be sketchy during the planning phase, such as the experience and expertise
of workers or the particular underground condition at a site.

2) Determination of job activities:

At the same time that the choice of technology and general method are considered, a parallel
step in the planning process is to define the various work tasks that must be accomplished.
These work tasks represent the necessary framework to permit scheduling of construction
activities, along with estimating the resources required by the individual work tasks and any
necessary precedence or required sequence among the tasks. The terms work "tasks" or
"activities" are often used interchangeably in construction plans to refer to specific, defined
items of work. The scheduling problem is to determine an appropriate set of activity start
time, resource allocations and completion times that will result in completion of the project
in a timely and efficient fashion. Construction planning is the necessary fore-runner to
scheduling. In this planning, defining work tasks, technology and construction method is
typically done either simultaneously or in a series of iterations.

More formally, an activity is a single work step that has a recognizable beginning and end and
requires time for its accomplishment. The following are suggested as guidelines for use when
activities are being identified.

By category of work as distinguished by materials such as concrete, timber, steel etc,


By category of work as distinguished by craft or crew requirements (formworks slab,
formwork footings)
By category of work as distinguished by equipment requirements,
By area of responsibility. Work items done by the general contractor and each of his
sub-contractor should be separated,
By distinct structural elements such as footings, walls, beams, columns and slabs, etc
With regard to owner’s breakdown of the work for bidding or payment purposes,
With regard to contractor’s breakdown for estimating and cost accounting purposes.

It is generally advantageous to introduce an explicit hierarchy of work activities for the


purpose of simplifying the presentation and development of a schedule. For example, the
initial plan might define a single activity associated with "site clearance." Later, this single
activity might be sub-divided into "re-locating utilities," "removing vegetation," "grading",

__________________________________________________________________
76
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

etc. However, these activities could continue to be identified as sub-activities under the
general activity of "site clearance." This hierarchical structure also facilitates the preparation
of summary charts and reports in which detailed operations are combined into aggregate or
"super"-activities.

In practice, the proper level of detail will depend upon the size, importance and difficulty of
the project as well as the specific scheduling and accounting procedures which are adopted.
However, it is generally the case that most schedules are prepared with too little detail than
too much. It is important to keep in mind that task definition will serve as the basis for
scheduling, for communicating the construction plan and for construction monitoring.
Completion of tasks will also often serve as a basis for progress payments from the owner.
Thus, more detailed task definitions can be quite useful. But more detailed task breakdowns
are only valuable to the extent that the resources required, durations and activity
relationships are realistically estimated for each activity. Providing detailed work task
breakdowns is not helpful without a commensurate effort to provide realistic resource
requirement estimates.

Example 6-1: Task Definition for a Road Building Project

As an example of construction planning, let’s use a developed plan for a road construction
project including two culverts.

Figure 6-1 Illustrative Hierarchical Activity Divisions for a Roadway Project

__________________________________________________________________
77
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

3) Job Logic /Sequential Relationships/ or Precedence:

Job logic refers to the determined order in which the activities are to be accomplished in the
field. The start of some activities obviously depends on the completion of the others. A
concrete wall cannot be poured until the formworks are in place and the reinforcing steel has
been tied. Yet many activities are independent of one another and can proceed concurrently.

For a project of any consequence, there is always more than one general approach and no
unique order of procedure exists. It is the planner’s responsibility to examine the workable
choices and select the most suitable alternatives.

Example 6 - 2:

Suppose that a site preparation and concrete slab foundation construction project consists of
nine different activities:

A. Site clearing (of brush and minor debris)


B. Removal of trees
C. General excavation
D. Grading general area
E. Excavation for utility trenches
F. Placing formwork and reinforcement for concrete
G. Installing sewer lines
H. Installing other utilities
I. Pouring concrete.

Activities A (site clearing) and B (tree removal) does not have preceding activities since they
depend on none of the other activities. We assume that activities C (general excavation) and
D (general grading) are preceded by activity A (site clearing). It might also be the case that
the planner wished to delay any excavation until trees were removed, so that B (tree removal)
would be a precedent activity to C (general excavation) and D (general grading). Activities E
(trench excavation) and F (concrete preparation) cannot begin until the completion of general
excavation and grading, since they involve subsequent excavation and trench preparation.
Activities G (install lines) and H (install utilities) represents installation in the utility trenches
and cannot be attempted until the trenches are prepared, so that activity E (trench
excavation) is a preceding activity. We also assume that the utilities should not be installed
until grading is completed to avoid equipment conflicts, so activity D (general grading) is also
preceding activities G (install sewers) and H (install utilities). Finally, activity I (pour
concrete) cannot begin until the sewer line is installed and formwork and reinforcement are
ready, so activities F and G are preceeding. Other utilities may be routed over the slab
foundation, so activity H (install utilities) is not necessarily a preceding activity for activity I
(pour concrete). The results of our planning are the immediate precedence shown herewith.

__________________________________________________________________
78
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

Precedence Relations for a Nine-Activity Project Example


Activity Description Predecessors
A Site clearing ---
B Removal of trees ---
C General excavation A
D Grading general area A
E Excavation for utility trenches B,C
F Placing formwork and reinforcement for concrete B,C
G Installing sewer lines D,E
H Installing other utilities D,E
I Pouring concrete F,G

4) Determination of duration of activities:

All formal scheduling procedures rely upon estimates of the durations of the various project
activities as well as the definitions of the predecessor relationships among tasks. The
variability of an activity's duration may also be considered. Formally, the probability
distribution of an activity's duration as well as the expected or most likely duration may be
used in scheduling. A probability distribution indicates the chance that particular activity
duration will occur. In advance of actually doing a particular task, we cannot be certain
exactly how long the task will require.

A straightforward approach to the estimation of activity durations is to keep historical records


of particular activities and rely on the average durations from this experience in making new
duration estimates. Since the scopes of activities are unlikely to be identical between different
projects, unit productivity rates are typically employed for this purpose. For example, the
duration of an activity Dij such as concrete formwork assembly might be estimated as:

Dij = Aij / (Pij * Nij)

Where Aij is the required formwork area to assemble (in m2), Pij is the average productivity of
a standard crew in this task (measured in m2 per hour), and Nij is the number of crews
assigned to the task.

The following important rules apply to the estimation of activity durations:


i) Evaluate activities one at a time, independently of all others. For a given activity,
assume that materials, labor, equipment and other needs will be available when
required,
ii) For each activity assume a normal level of manpower and/or equipment. Compute the
estimate duration by applying a crew or equipment production rate to the total
number of units of work to done.

__________________________________________________________________
79
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

Example: Activity duration to pour 230 m2 of slab formwork, assuming a production


rate of 1.5 m2/hr /crew (assuming 8 working hours per day) can be established as
follows
Duration = quantity/productivity
= 230 m2/ 12 m2/day = 17.5 days
iii) If time units of working days are being used, assume a normal working day. Do not
consider overtime or multiple shifts unless this is a usual procedure or a part of the
standard work day.

6.2. Construction Project Scheduling

The scheduling of a construction project is often confused with Planning, which is an entirely
different and separate function. Although the planning function may never be accomplished
in a total manner, it can be accomplished in a broad and practical sense. Planning must be
done before the project can be intelligently scheduled.

Scheduling is a mechanical process for formalizing the planning function, assigning time
boundaries for each part of the work in such a manner that the work proceeds in logical
sequence and in an orderly and systematic manner.

Thus, a construction project scheduling is a projected time table of construction operations


that will serve as the principal guide line for project evaluation.

Preparation of schedules:

Preparation of schedules involves the following three steps:


1. Determination of activities or job steps. Breaking the works into smaller units or
activities.
2. Determining of the activity durations.
3. Determining the sequential relationships among the activities or preparing the Job
Logic.
4. Establishment of a plan network i.e. developing a bar chart or network diagram.

6.2.1 General Information:

Construction Stages:
On large projects it may be desirable or essential to divide the project into several
construction stages, which may be constructed independently or in conjunction with each
other.

Example: A new water supply scheme for a city might include the following stages:

__________________________________________________________________
80
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

Clearing the reservoir site


The earth – fill dam
The concrete dam, spillway, and controls
The pump station
The transmission line
The water treatment plant

Construction Activities:

Most projects are divided into construction activities to facilitate job planning. It is a portion
of a project, which may be performed by a classification of laborers (CREW) or perhaps by a
single type of equipment.

Construction/Job Activity: – is thus a segment of work in the construction project that has
a recognizable beginning and end, implying that it requires time to accomplish the task.

6.2.2. Scheduling Techniques:

There are two common methods of scheduling used in the construction industry. This are:
A. Bar chart (Gantt chart) Scheduling method.
B. Network scheduling method: which include the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT).

6.2.2.1. Bar Chart (Gantt Chart) Method: -

The bar chart is probably the best known of all the planning techniques. It basically features a
plan of a project split into a logically related individual activities each represented graphically
by scaled lines. Bar charts present the project schedule plotted to a horizontal line scale. The
bar lines represent the time period allocated to each operation and the relationship between
the commencement and completion of each can be readily observed. The bar chart has been
the traditional management device for planning and scheduling construction projects. Bar
charts are particularly helpful for communicating the current state and schedule of activities
on a project. As such, they have found wide acceptance as a project representation tool in the
field. For planning purposes, bar charts are not as useful since they do not indicate the
precedence relationships among activities. Thus, a planner must remember or record
separately that a change in one activity's schedule may require changes to successor activities.
There have been various schemes for mechanically linking activity bars to represent
precedence, but it is now easier to use computer based tools to represent such relationships.

Advantages of Bar chart:


Useful to report information to people who are concerned about a project but may not
be involved in day-today management.
A simple format and readily understood at all levels of management,

__________________________________________________________________
81
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

It can provide a quick, visual overview of a project in convenient way to monitor job
progresses, schedule equipment and crews and record project advancement.
Disadvantages:
Interdependencies among activities are difficult to show. The bar chart itself doesn’t
provide a basis for ascertaining which activities are critical and which are floaters.
It is not an adequate planning and scheduling tool because it doesn’t portray a
detailed, integrated and complete plan of operations.
Can't tell what will be the effect of a delay today will have on the timing of future
activities.

Example of schedule using bar chart:

6.2.2.2. NETWORK SCEHDULING: -

Network Scheduling: - is a method of scheduling activities by joining them in a series of


interconnected links, which reflect relationships of activities by the planner.

Basic Assumptions:

__________________________________________________________________
82
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

1. The project can be broken down into a group of activities.


2. Each activities can be assigned a duration.
3. The logical relationship among activities are known and fixed in the network chains.

Rules for Preparing the Network Diagram:

1. No activity can start before the preceding activity is finalized.


2. There is only one start and finish for an activity.
3. No activity leads back and forms a loop.
4. The logical precedence, concurrent and subsequent activities must be clearly
developed.
5. A Dummy activity is established only to show relationship. A dummy activity is
assumed to have duration of ZERO time units and it is introduced on the network
when it is necessary.

Presentation of Networks: -

Showing the job activities and their order of sequence (logic) in pictorial form produces the
project network. This network is a graphical display of the proposed plan.

There are two methods. These are: -

i. Arrow or Activity on Arrow Diagram

3
B D

A 5 F 6
1 2

C E
4

ii. Node or Activity on Node Diagram

B D

ST A F

__________________________________________________________________
83
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

C E

Network Logic:

Network logic refers to the determined order in which the activities are interrelated in order
to accomplish the task.

Identifying the preceding activity and immediately preceding activity (IPA) is the easiest
method to develop the network logic and draw the network diagram.

Example 6 -3: Develop the network logic for the activities given in example 6 -2.

Using the Precedence Relations table of the project the following network logic can be
developed.

Types of Network Schedules:

The two common types of network schedules used in the construction industry are the
Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Program Review and Evaluation Technique (PERT).

6.2.2.2.1 Critical Path Method (CPM)

The most widely used scheduling technique is the critical path method (CPM) for scheduling,
often referred to as critical path scheduling. This method calculates the minimum completion
time for a project along with the possible start and finish times for the project activities.
Indeed, many texts and managers regard critical path scheduling as the only usable and
practical scheduling procedure. Computer programs and algorithms for critical path
scheduling are widely available and can efficiently handle projects with thousands of
activities.

__________________________________________________________________
84
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

The critical path itself represents the set or sequence of predecessor/successor activities which
will take the longest time to complete. The duration of the critical path is the sum of the
activities' durations along the path. Thus, the critical path can be defined as the longest
possible path through the "network" of project activities. The duration of the critical path
represents the minimum time required to complete a project. Any delays along the critical
path would imply that additional time would be required to complete the project. Formally,
critical path scheduling assumes that a project has been divided into activities of fixed
duration and well defined predecessor relationships. A predecessor relationship implies that
one activity must come before another in the schedule. No resource constraints other than
those implied by precedence relationships are recognized in the simplest form of critical path
scheduling.

Calculation of Event Times:

Basically the two event times are the one that starts in the earliest possible time and the other
on the latest possible time. The method used to calculate them is different from each as
shown below:

A. Earliest Event Time (TE)

 Earliest event time is the earliest possible time, when all activities leading to
the event will or are completed.
 It is written above the node or the activity line.
 At each node, the TE is found as TE of the preceding event plus the activity
duration of the activity connecting the two events. This method of calculation
is called Forward Pass.
 If there are more than one TE at a given node the maximum of earliest event
time should be taken as the governing one.

B. Latest Event Time (TL)

 Latest event time is the latest possible occurrence of an event without


delaying the project completion time.
 It is written below the node or the activity line.
 At each node, the TL is found as TL of the subsequent or succeeding event
minus the activity duration of the activity connecting the two events. This
method of calculation is called the Backward Pass.
 If there are more than one TL at a given node the minimum of latest event
times should be taken as the governing one.

Important Definitions:

__________________________________________________________________
85
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

A. Earliest Start Time ( EST = TE)

This is the earliest time that an activity can start. It represents the earliest event time of the
preceding activity.

B. Earliest Finish Time ( EFT)

It is the earliest time, when an activity can be finished:

EFT = EST + Activity Duration

C. Latest Finish Time( LFT)

This is the latest time, when an activity may be completed without affecting the project
completion time. It represents the late event tine of the succeeding event.

D. Latest Start Time ( LST)

It is the latest possible time that an activity can start without affecting the project completion
time.

LST = TL – Activity Duration

E. Total Float Time ( TF)

Total float time is the amount of time that an activity can be delayed without affecting the
total project completion time.

TF = LFT – EFT

F. Free Float Time ( TFF)

Free float time is the time that an activity can be delayed without affecting the early start of
the following activity.

TFF = T E,j - ( T E,i +D i – j ) , where T E,j - earliest event time of event j,


T E,i - earliest event time of event i,
D i – j - duartion of activity i – j.

The total float time that can't be exceeded as it will cause a delay in the project. Meanwhile
the free float of an activity can be exceeded.

Example 6 – 4: For the project indicated below,

__________________________________________________________________
86
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

A. Develop a clear logic network for the activities.


B. Show the critical path.
C. Using tabular format calculate the event, activity, total and free float times.

Activity Duration, Days Preceding Activity


A 3 ---
B 2 ---
C 5 A
D 4 A
E 6 B, C
F 2 B, C
G 3 D, E
H 2 D, E
I 7 F, G
J 5 H, I

A. Network Logic:

2 4
F
I
B
C E G J
6 7
1

A H
5
3
D

__________________________________________________________________
87
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

B. Critical Path - Duration Calculation

2 4
F
I
B
C E G J
6 7
1

A H
5
3
D

CRITICAL PATH: -
2 4

C E G J
6 7
1

A
5
3

Activity Duration EST EFT LFT LST TF FF


A 3 0 3 3 0 0 0
B 2 0 8 8 6 6 6
C 5 3 8 8 3 0 0
D 4 3 14 14 10 7 7
E 6 8 14 14 8 0 0
F 2 8 17 17 15 7 7
G 3 14 17 17 14 0 0
H 2 14 24 24 22 8 8
I 7 17 24 24 17 0 0
J 5 24 29 29 24 0 0

__________________________________________________________________
88
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

Exercise: Develop a network diagram for a factory project with the following
information and determine completion time and floating times of activities.

Notation Activity Preceded Followed Durations


by by (days)
A Boiler house foundation --- B,C 1
B Boiler house walls A D 1
C Chimney foundation A E 2
D Boiler house flooring B F 2
E Chimney base construction C G 6
F Boiler house roof work D H 2
G Erect chimney E I 4
H Boiler house finishing F I 4
I Install boilers H,G J 4
J Test boilers I T 2
K Set up site clearing -- L 1
L Factory foundation K M,N 2
M External brick wall L O 4
N Erect steel frame L P 1
O Ground floor slab M Q 4
P Roof cladding N R 2
Q Service ducts O S 2
R Wall cladding P S 2
S Building services (Elect, Q,R T 1
water )
T External works S,J --- 4

6.2.2.2.1 Program Review and Evaluation Technique (PERT)

The two commonly used network methods for project planning and scheduling are the
program evaluation and review technique (PERT) and the critical path method (CPM). Both
PERT and CPM are termed critical path methods because both use the critical path to
complete expected project duration, early and late times, and slack. The two are frequently
described under one term, PERT/CPM. Despite their similarities, PERT and CPM were
developed independently in different problem environments and industries.

PERT was developed for application in projects where there is uncertainty associated with
the nature and duration of activities. It originated in the late 1950s during the U.S. Navy’s
Polaris Missile System Program. In complex research and development programs, there are

__________________________________________________________________
89
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

questions about the kind of research to be done, how long it will take, what stages of
development are necessary, and how fast they can be completed- largely because of the
uncertainty about the exact nature of the final outcomes. Such projects are contracted as new
developments unfold and before problems in technology, materials, and processes can be
identified and resolved. Thus, the duration of the project is uncertain and there is
considerable risk that the project will overrun the target completion time.

Three Time Estimates:


PERT addresses uncertainty in the duration by using three time estimates: Optimistic, most
likely, and pessimistic. These estimates then are used to calculate the expected time for an
activity. The range between the estimates provides a measure of variability, which permits
statistical inferences to be made about the likelihood of project events happening at particular
times. As seen in the figure, the optimistic time ‘a’ is the minimum time an activity could
take- the situation where everything goes well; there will be little hope of finishing earlier.
The most likely time ‘m’ is the normal time to complete the activity. It is the time that would
occur most frequently if the activity could be repeated. Finally, the pessimistic time ‘b’ is the
maximum time an activity could take- the situation where bad luck is encountered at every
step. The pessimistic time includes likely internal problems in development, but not force
majors such as strikes, power shortages, and bankruptcy, fire or naturals disasters. The three
estimates are obtained from the people most knowledgeable about difficulties likely to be
encountered and about the potential variability in time- expert estimators or those who will
actually perform or manage the activity.

The three estimates are related in the form of a Beta Probability distribution, Figure 6 -2 with
parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ as the end points, and ‘m’ the modal, or most frequent value. The PERT
originates chose the Beta distribution because it is not necessarily symmetrical- properties
that seem desirable for a distribution of activity times.

Based on this distribution, the mean or expected time, te, and the variance, V, of each activity
are computed with the three time estimates using the following formulas.

a  4m  b
te 
6
2
(b  a )
 V
( 6 )
The expected time, te, represents the point in the normal distribution where there is 50-50
chance that the activity will be completed earlier or later than it.

__________________________________________________________________
90
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

a m te b

Figure 6 – 2: Beta and Normally Distributed Activity Durations

The variance ’V ‘ is a measure of variability in the activity completion time. The larger V, the
less reliability, te,, and the higher the likelihood that the activity will be completed much
earlier or much later than the expected time. This simply mean that the farther apart a and b,
the more dispersed the distribution and the greater the chance that the actual time will be
significantly different from the expected time, te .If a and b are close to each other, V is small
and the expected time is more reliable.

Probability of Finishing a Project by a Target Completion Date:

Statistically the expected time of a sequence of independent activities is the sum of their
individual expected times. Hence the expected time of the project, Te, is the sum of the
expected activity times along the critical path.

Te  ∑te
CP

Where, te, are expected times of the activities along the critical path.
In PERT, the project duration is not considered a single point estimate contrary to CPM, but
an estimate subject to uncertainty owing to the uncertainties of the activity times along the
critical path. Because the project duration; Te, is computed as the sum of average activity
times along the critical path, it follows that, Te, is an average time. Thus the project duration

__________________________________________________________________
91
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

can be thought of as a probability distribution with an average of Te. So the probability of


completing the project prior to Te is 50 percent, and the probability of completing it later
than Te is 50 percent.

The variation in the project duration distribution is computed as the sum of the variances of
the activity durations along the critical path.

Vp  ∑v
CP

Where, V, are variances of activities on the critical path.


The distribution of project durations is approximated using the familiar bell shaped, normal
distribution. Given this assumption, the probability of meeting any targeted project
completion date, Ts, different from, Te, can be determined.

Example 6 – 5: As an example, consider the following questions about the project shown in
the network.

i) What is the probability of completing the project in 27 days?


ii) What is the latest (95% probable) likely date by which the project will be completed?

__________________________________________________________________
92
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

Both questions can be answered using the standard normal distribution curve (Z-values)
given in the attached table.

i) Given , Ts= 27 days


Te = 29 days; Vp = 6.0 ; Find F(Z)

According to the Z values of normal distribution,


TS TE
Z ; Z = -0.82
VP
The probability of completing the project within 27 days is equal to the area under the
normal curve to the left of Z =-0.82. Referring to the table,

F(-Z) = 1- F(Z);

= 1- F (0.82)

= 1-0.7939

= 21%

ii) Given, F(Z) = 0.95, Te= 29 days, Vp= 6.0

Find, Ts

From the normal distribution table, the Z values for 95% probability is approximately 1.645

1.645  Ts  29
6.0

Ts =33.03 days

In other words, it is highly likely (95% probability) that the project will be completed within
33 days.

Advantages of network scheduling:

Requires and promotes the planner to think logically,


Activities upon which the contractor must concentrate high efforts during the project
are identified in the process of planning,
Non critical activities are also identified and resource leveling is facilitated,
Arguments in support of claims can be developed where some action on the part of
the Client or his adverse delays a critical activity.
Crash times –alternative durations based on increased gang sizes may be introduced in
order to recover lost ground.

__________________________________________________________________
93
WU
Construction Management Lecture Notes

Disadvantages of the network scheduling:


Not readily understood as a graphical statement of the contract duration,
Updating calls for a redrafted network from the date concerned. Frequent updating
entails continuous redrafting in a situation of uncertainty and becomes remote from
managerial decision making,
A thorough knowledge of the construction process and of practical sequences is
required prior to preparing the network: This will involve liaison between site
management and the planner preparing the network. This liaison facility is rarely
available.

__________________________________________________________________
94
WU

You might also like