STANDARD PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

CHAPTER- 5

Question –1
A company makes raincoats and claims that 95% of its coats will pass a standard
waterproof test. 50 coats are chosen at random from the production line. Assuming
that the firm’s claim is correct, find

(a) The average number of coats that would be expected to fail;

(b) The probability that more than one coat will fail the test;
(c) The probability that six or more coats will fail the test;

If (c) happens. What would you conclude about the company’s claim?

Solution:-

Probability of passing test = 95/100 = 0.95

No. of samples = 50
(a) expected number of coats failing the test = (1-0.95)*50
=2.5

(b) probability that more than 1 coat will fail the test = pr(X>1)
=1-{pr(X=0)+ pr(X=1)}
=1-0.279
=0.72
pr(X=0) 0.0769
pr(X=1) 0.2024
pr(X=2) 0.261
pr(X=3) 0.2198
pr(X=4) 0.1359
pr(X=5) 0.0658

(C) Probability that six or more coats will fail the test = pr(X>=6)

= 1-{pr(X=0) + pr(X=1) + pr(X=2) + pr(X=3) + pr(X=4) + pr(X=5)}

= 1-0.9618
= 0.0382

If (c) happens, it means that 3.82% of coats are defectives which are less than 5%
claimed by the company and hence company’s claim is true.
Question –2

In a certain factory, the machines tend to break down at random, and the average
number of breakdowns per day is 2.1. The mechanic can deal with up to three
breakdowns during a normal working day. If more than three machines breakdown, the
mechanic has to work overtime. Then,

(a) What is the probability that the mechanic will have to work overtime on a
particular day?
(b) What is the most probable number of stoppages in a day?
(c) If. On a certain day, six machines broke down, what would you conclude, and
why?

Solution:-

Average no. of breakdown, n= 2.1

(a) Probability that mechanic will do overtime = pr(X>3)

= 1-{pr(X=0) + pr(X=1) + pr(X=2) + pr(X=3)}

= 1-0.837 where pr(X=r) = (e-2.1*2.1r)/r!
= 0.163

pr(X=0) 0.122
pr(X=1) 0.257
pr(X=2) 0.269
pr(X=3) 0.189
pr(X=4) 0.098
pr(X=5) 0.041
pr(X=6) 0.014

(b) Since probability of two stoppages is highest, therefore two numbers of

stoppages will occur frequently.

(c) Probability of sic no. of stoppages = pr(X=6)

= (e-2.1*2.16)/6!
= 0.014
Since chances if its occurrence is only 1.4% it would rarely occur.
Question-3
A roll of fabric contains, on average, eight defects scattered at random in 100 m2.
Pieces of fabric, 5 m by 2 m, are cut from the roll. What is probability that –
(a) A piece will contain no defects;
(b) A piece will contain more than one defect;
(c) A piece will contain fewer than two defects;
(d) Five pieces selected at random will all be free from defects.

Solution:-
Given p= 0.08

Number of samples (n) = 100/10 = 10

Mean = n*p=10*0.08= 0.8

pr(X=0) 0.449
pr(X=1) 0.359

(a) Probability of no defect = pr (x=0)

= (e-x * x r)/r!
= (e-0.8 * 0.8 0)
= 0.449

(b) Probability of more than one defect = pr (x>1)

= 1-{pr (x=o) + pr (x=1)}
= 1- {0.45+0.359}
= 0.191

(c) Probability of fewer than two defects = pr (x<2)

= pr (x=o) + pr (=1)
=0.45+0.359
=0.809
= 0.81

(d) Probability that the five pieces selected at random will all be free from defects =
=0.45*0.45*0.45*0.45*0.45
= 0.018
Question –4
A manufacturer sells articles in lots of 100 and agrees to pay the purchaser a penalty of
£30 if five or more articles in a lot are defective. He knows from past experience that,
on average 2% of the articles are defective. It costs £2 to make each article. What
should the selling price be if the manufacturer’s over-all profit is to be 25%?

Solution:-

Probability of a article in a lot are defective = 2/100

=0.02

Probability of five or more articles in a lot are defective = pr (x>=5)

= 1-{pr (x=0) +pr (x=1) +pr (x=2) + pr (x=3) + pr (x=4)}

=1- 0.948
=0.051

pr (x=0) 0.132
pr (x=1) 0.271
pr (x=2) 0.273
pr (x=3) 0.182
pr(x=4) 0.09

This shows that 5% of the articles are defective in the particular lot. Therefore
A penalty of £30 has to be paid.

Total cost price of articles = (5*2) + (95*2) +30

=£230

Therefore selling price for a 25% profit = cost price (1+ profit %)
= 230 *(1+0.25)
= £287.5

Question –6
 The distribution of the masses of a certain type of garment is known to be approx.
Normal with the standard deviation of 6g. It is required that not more than 1% of the
garments produced should have a mass less than 213g. What should be the average
mass of the garments? Assuming the garments is made with this average mass. What
proportion if the garments will have masses between 218g and 233g.

Solution:-
Given µ=213g
S.D = 6g

(a) Probability of garments having mass less than 213g = 1/100=0.01

We know
 pr {(X-213)/6} = 0.01
 (X-213)/6 = 2.32 (From table)
 X =213+6*2.32
 X = 226.92

From this, the average mass of the garments so that 1% of garments produced should
have a mass less than (213gm) = 226.92gm
=227gm

(b) Proportion of garments lying between 218—233 = pr (218<X<233)

218 227 233

(U>=233) = (233-227)/6
=1
pr (X) = 0.1587 (From table)

(U<=218) = (227-218)/6
=1.5
pr (X) = 0.0668 (From table)

Therefore, proportion of garments will have mass between 218-233 g

=1-(0.1587+0.0668)
= 0.7745
The proportion of garments will have mass between 218-233 g = 0.77

Question –7
 A mass of 150g was hung in turn from 250 pieces of a certain yarn, and 12 of the
pieces broke. A load of 200g was then hung from the previously unbroken pieces and a
further 213 pieces broke. Assume that yarn strength is distributed normally. Estimate
the mean and standard deviation of the yarn strength.

Solution:-

Let the mean strength = X gm

And standard deviation = p gm
Given pr {(X-150)/p} = 12/250

Pr {(X-150)/p} = 0.048

(X-150)/p = 1.6646 (From table)

»» X-1.66p =150 ------------------- (1)

Also pr {(200-X)/p} = 213/238

pr {(200-X)/p} = 0.894

(200-X)/p = 1.0356 (From table)

»» X+1.03p=200 ------------------- (2)

From the equations (1) and (2)

X= 178.22
And p = 16.98

Therefore the mean strength is 178g and standard deviation is 17g.

0.048 0.894
150 178 200

Question –8
 The weekly orders for a certain garment have as Normal distribution, with a mean of
820 dozen and a standard deviation of 50 dozen. At the start of each week, a number of
garments are placed in the store to meet the week’s orders.

(a) How many dozen should be in the store at the start of a week in order to be 97%
certain of being able to meet the week’s orders?

(b) If the maximum capacity of the store is 880 dozen and this capacity is used to the
full, what is the probability of failing to meet all the week’s orders?

Solution:-
Mean X= 820
Standard deviation = 50

(a) According to the condition pr {(X-820)/50} = 0.97

(X-820)/50 = 0.03 (From table)

X= 820+94.04
= 914.04 dozen.

820 880
(b) Probability of failing to meet all the week’s orders
= pr {(880-820)/50}
= pr(X>=1.2)
=0.1151

SELF GENERATED PROBLEMS

Q1. In a fabric strength test, 200 samples were tested. 1 out of 4 samples would fail the
test. What is probability from 25 to 30 failures for 80 samples out of 200 samples
will occur?

Probability of a failure for each 80 samples is

p= ¼ =0.25
Therefore probability from 25 to 30 failures
= Pr (25x30)
Using normal curve approximation
=np
=80(1/4)
=20
And = (npq)1/2
= (80*1/4*3/4)1/2
=3.873

U=25-20 (x25)
= 3.873

U=30-20 (x30)
=3.873

Probability from 25 to 30 samples failing

=Pr(u >=1.16)-Pr(u<=2.71)
=0.1230 – 0.0034
=0.1196

0 1.16 2.71

Q2. The buyer sets specification on the diameter to be 0.030.01cm. The implication is
that no part falling outside these specifications will be accepted. It is known that in
the process the diameter of yarn has a normal distribution with mean 0.03 and
standard deviation 0.005 on average what percentage of the number of yarns
produced will be rejected?

Sol:

0.0228 0.0228
0.02 0.03 0.04

Mean  = 0.03
 = 0.005

 Probability Pr (0.02<x<0.04)
U=0.02-0.03 (x<0.02)
0.005
= -2.00

U= 0.04-0.03 (x>0.04)
0.005
=2

From table: Pr(x<0.02) = 0.0228

Pr(x>0.04) = 0.0228
 Pr (0.02<x<0.04) = 0.0228+0.0228
= 0.0456

Probability of rejecting= 4.56%

 Q3. The average life of a certain fabric is 10 years with a standard deviation of 2 years.
The manufacturer replaces free all fabrics that fails while under guarantee. If he is
willing to replace only 3% of the fabrics that fail, how long a guarantee should he
offer? Assume that the life time of the fabric follows normal distribution.

Sol:

Given
P (u) = 0.03
From table U = 1.88

 Pr (10-) = 0.03


From table, 10- = 1.88

2
 = 6.24

Therefore, a guarantee of 6.24 years should be offered.

0.03
1.88

Q4. The average tex of yarn in a lot of packages is 30 tex and a standard deviation of 2
tex. Assuming a normal distribution what percentage of yarn has:
a) Higher than 31.7 tex
b) Between 29.3 and 33.5 tex
c) Less than 25.5 tex.
Sol:
a) U = 31.7-30 (x31.7)
2
= 0.85

Probability of yarn having tex more than 31.7

= Pr (u 0.85)
= 0.1977
 = 19.77%

b) Pr(29.3x33.5)

U = 29.3-30 (x29.3)
2
= -0.35

And U = 33.5-30 (x33.5)

2
= 1.75

Probability of yarn between 29.3 and 33.5 tex

= Pr(x<33.5) – Pr(x29.3)
= 0.9592 – 0.3632
= 0.59
= 59%

c) Probability of yarn having less than 25.5 tex

= Pr(x25.5)
= Pr (25.5-30)
2
= Pr (-2.25)
= 0.0122
= 1.22%

Q5. A certain spinning machine makes yarn having a mean strength of 4 g/tex and a
standard deviation of 0.2 Assuming the strength follows a normal distribution and
can be measured to any degree of accuracy what percentage of yarns will have a
strength exceeding 4.3 g/tex?

Sol:

4.0 4.3

U = 4.3-4.0
0.2
= 1.5
 Pr(x>4.3) = Pr(u>1.5) = 1 – Pr(u<1.5)
= 1 – 0.9332
= 0.0668

Therefore 6.68% of yarns are having strength exceeding 4.3 g /Tex.

Q6. The probability that a fabric fails from a strength test is 0.4 If 100 samples are known
to have contracted this test, what is the probability that less than 30 fails?

Sol:
Let the binomial variable X represents the number of fabrics that fails the test.
Since n =100, we should obtain fairly accurate results using the normal curve
approximation with

=np
= (100)0.4
= 40
And  = (npq)1/2
= [(100)(0.4)(0.6)]1/2
= 4.899

To obtain the desired probability, we have to find the area to the left of x=30
Pr(x<30) = 30-40
4.899
= -2.04

From table Pr(x<30) = Pr(u<-2.04) = 0.0207

-2.04 0

Q7. A sewing thread manufacturer knows that 5% of his product is defective. If he sells
bobbins in boxes of 100 and guarantees that not more than 10 will be defective,
what is the approximate probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed
quality?

Sol:
 n= 100
p= probability of a defective bobbin
= 5% = 0.05

Since p is small so we use Poisson distribution

 = mean number of defective bobbins
=np
= 100(0.5)
=5
let the random variable x denote the number of defective bobbins in a box of
100, then by Poisson probability law, the probability of r defective bobbins in a
box is:
Pr(x=r) = e- r = e-5 5r; r=1, 2, 3…
r! r!

Probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality is:
10
Pr(x>10) =1-Pr(x10) = 1- e-5 5r
r=0 r!

BINOMIAL AND POISSONS

Question 1: Ten percent of the garments produced in a certain manufacturing process

turn out to be defective. Then according to the criteria of the customer if two out
of 10 is defective then the lot will be rejected. Find out the probability of
acceptance of the lot.
 a. Using binomial distribution.
b. Using poisons distribution.

Sol:
The probability of defective garments is =0.1 = p

a) Pr { 2 defective garment in 10 } = 10 (0.1)2 (0.9)8

= 0.19

The probability of acceptance is 1-.19 = 0.18

= 81%

b) with the help of poissons distribution

λ = NP = 0.14; e = 2.718

Pr {2 defective garments in 10} = λx e-1 / x!

= (1)2 e-1 / 2! = 1/2e
= 0.1839
= 18.39%

Acceptance is = 81.6%.

In general the approximation is good in p<=0.1 and λ <= 0.5.

Q -1. A sales man of the company sell ring spun yarn and rotor spun yarn i.e. A and B.
during a morning he makes 3 calls to customers. Let suppose the chance that on
any call he makes a sale of the yarn. A is 1in 3 and for the yarn B is 1in 4 suppose
that the sale of product A on the call is independent of the sale of product B and
that the results of the 3 calls are independent of one another. Calculate the
probability that the sales man will
 a. Sell both product A and B at the first call
b. Sell one product at the first call.
c. Make no sales on product A during the morning.
d. Makes no sale on the product A and B during the morning.

Sol:

For the sale of product A and B.

a. P (A intersection B) = P (A) * P(B)

= 1/3*1/2 = 1/12

b. P(A sold B not) = P(Ac intersection Bc )

= 1/3*3/4=1/12

c. probability A not sold B sold = 2/3*1/4 = 1/6

d. for A not sold, B not sold = 2/3*3/4 = ½

Q. 2 Hairiness index value of a lot of yarns are measured on Uster tester. Nominal value of
hairiness is 3.2 and it is assumed that sample S.D. is equal to population S.D. How
much samples are there in population for which hairiness index value (H) is less than
2?

S. No. Hairiness index value (H)

1 5.7
2 4.9
3 2.1
4 1.3
5 3.5
6 1.7

Sol.
x x – mean (x – mean) 2

5.7 2.5 6.25

4.9 1.7 2.89
2.1 - 1.1 1.21
1.3 - 1.9 3.61
 3.5 0.3 0.09
1.7 - 1.5 2.25

19.2 16.3

Mean = x / n = 19.2 /6
= 3.2
S.D. = sq. root ((x – mean) 2 / n -1)
= 1.81

Probability (x  2) = Pr (u  2 – 3.2 / 1.81) = Pr (u  - 0.66)

= Pr (u  0.66)
= 0.2546 [from table]
= 25.46 %
= 1.81

2 3.2

Q. 3 Counts of a large no. of spindles of a worsted-spinning mill was measured. Mean count
was found to be 32 Nm and S.D. was calculated as 3 Nm. Calculate the %age of
spindles of that spinning mill having count in between 35 Nm and 40 Nm?

Sol:

 = 32 Nm
 = 3 Nm
 Probability (35  x  40) = Pr (x  35) – Pr (x  40)

Pr (x  35) = Pr (u  35-32 / 3)
= Pr (u  1)
= 0.1587

Pr (x  40) = Pr (u  40 – 32 / 3)
= Pr (u  2.7)
= 0.0034

Pr (35  x  40) = Pr (x  35) – Pr (x  40)

= 0.1587 – 0.0034
= 0.1553
= 15.53 %

 = 11

32 35 40

Q. 4 Strength of 500 samples of yarns are tested on Zweglle strength tester in 100 groups,
each group containing 5 samples. S.D. of all samples is 53 gf & mean of mean values
of all 100 groups is 499 gf. What proportion of 100 groups has mean value more than
503 gf?

Sol.
 = 53 gf
n = 500
 = 499 gf
x =  / sq. root n = 2.37
Probability (x  503) = Pr (u  503 – 499 / 2.37) = Pr (u  1.68)
 = 0.0465 [from table]
= 4.65 %

4.65 % of 100 groups have mean value more than 503 gf

 = 53

499 503