Microsoft New Future of Work Report 2022
Microsoft New Future of Work Report 2022
Microsoft New Future of Work Report 2022
Future of Work
Report 2022
A summary of recent research
from Microsoft and around the
world that can help us create a
new and better future of work.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
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Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
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Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• The society scale considers topics like the changing geography of • Appendix…................106-111
work and remote work, disparate impacts, and sustainability.
Throughout, we highlight research – from Microsoft and elsewhere – using methods like the latest
advances in AI, causal inference, experimentation, field work, surveys, interviews, and prototype-
building to uncover challenges and opportunities facing workers. 5
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• New technologies are rapidly improving work: When and where work happens is in flux and co-evolving with the
technology. We are seeing new hybrid meeting environments (Slide 39), transformative improvements in asynchronous
collaboration (Slide 51), novel applications of recommender systems in the workplace (Slide 65), and, of course, the use of
VR and AR productivity environments (Slides 42-48). The share of patents in this space is growing over time (Slide 97).
• Improved practices can make work better now: Technology improvements may take time, but some changes don't have
to wait. Meetings can immediately become more effective by carefully selecting locations and configurations to complement
their purposes (Slide 32). Managers can expand their set of strategies (Slides 24, 102), leaders can avoid common
misconceptions about hybrid work (Slide 64), and organizations can experiment with meeting-free days (Slide 26).
• The definition of productivity is expanding: Organizations and employees are increasingly recognizing that wellbeing
(Slide 14), the balance between work and life (Slide 17), inclusivity (Slides 105), and other aspects of the employee
experience are important (Slide 14), and taking steps to address these in a work context (Slide 18).
• There is much to learn about The Hybrid Work Era: This report provides some answers, but also raises new and exciting
research questions. Will the prevalence of home offices change the way people use office space (Slide 75)? What new AI
scenarios are enabled by the recent acceleration of the digital transformation (Slides 50, 51, 65, 91)? Can we end video
fatigue (Slide 35)? How will remote innovations like meeting chat translate to a hybrid setting (Slides 29, 37)? What will
hybrid work look like in developing markets (Slide 79)? How can we ensure hybrid work makes work more inclusive (Slides
50, 103)?
6
Individual
Productivity and
Wellbeing
Key Contributors: Mary Czerwinski,
Brian Houck, Shamsi Iqbal, Eric
Knudsen, Rick Pollak
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Information workers prefer hybrid over other modes, at least for now
In survey after survey, a plurality or majority of respondents (from a variety of populations) report
wanting to work partly at home and partly in-office. That said, there are signs of shifting preferences.
• For individuals, hybrid work refers to working part of the time in the office and part time from somewhere else. For
organizations, hybrid can also refer to having a mix of fully on-site and fully off-site employees.
• Bloom (2021) reports that 47% of American workers prefer to work in a hybrid model, 21% want to return to the
office full time, and 32% want to stay fully remote.
• The average number of days Americans workers want to work from home (among those who can work from
home) is around 2.8 as of March 2022 (Barrero et al. 2022).
• A survey in the United Kingdom found an even stronger preference for hybrid – 59% hybrid, 18% full-time office, 23%
fully remote (Bloom et al. 2021).
• In a global survey, 21% of respondents who had quit their jobs in 2021 reported doing so because of lack of flexible
working hours or location (Microsoft WTI 2022).
• Employees value flexibility in work location at non-trivial percentages of their salary, e.g., approx. 9% in one recent
survey of U.S. workers who have worked from home during COVID (Barrero et al. 2021) and 8% in a pre-pandemic
controlled experiment (Mas & Pallais 2017).
• Preferences may shift over time: approximately half of surveyed remote workers reported thinking of switching to
hybrid and vice versa (Microsoft WTI 2022).
Barrero et al. 2022 survey of U.S. workers
• In a Glint (2021) survey of LinkedIn members, top concerns flagged by employees about working even partly
outside of the office include lower socialization (61%) and lower visibility to leadership (42%).
Barrero, J. M. et al. (2021) “Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes December 2021 Updates.” WFH Research.
Barrero, J. M. et al. (2022) “Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes April 2022 Updates.” WFH Research.
Bloom, N., et al. (2021). Returning to the Office Will Be Hard. VoxEU.Org.
Bloom, Nick (2021). “Hybrid Is the Future of Work.” Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
Microsoft Study: Glint (2021). "Concerns on Virtual Work in a Hybrid World". [Internal]
Mas, A. & Pallais, A. (2017). Valuing Alternative Work Arrangements. American Economic Review 107(12): 3722–59. 8
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
More employers are embracing hybrid work, but not to the extent that
employees want
There has been a major increase in employer acceptance of hybrid work, but employees still want more
flexibility than employers are planning. We don’t yet know how this will play out.
• From uncertainty to hybrid: Employers who were on the fence with their post-COVID plans have overwhelmingly chosen to
go with a hybrid work model, where employees work from home some, but not all of the time. This was a large driver
behind the near-doubling just in 2021 of U.S. employees who said their employer was planning a hybrid work model, from
16.5% to 28.4% (Barrero 2022).
• Employees appear to be embracing hybrid with their behavior when they have the chance: Health conditions in China made
hybrid work more possible in China in 2021 than elsewhere, and although experiments with hybrid work were rare there,
there was good uptake when the opportunity arose, e.g., around 50% (depending on definition) in recent study by Bloom et
al. (2022) and a survey of Microsoft China employees in mid-2021 found that 35% of employees were working from home
1-2 days/week (Wang et al 2021).
• However, employers are still embracing hybrid less than employees want: As of March 2022, U.S. employees still want to
work from home more than employers are planning to allow (around 0.5 days/week, depending on type of worker) (Barrero
et al. 2022). Globally, we see the same dynamic: In AIPAC, 40% of employers are planning flexible work in 2022, but 60% of
employees want it (Microsoft WTI 2022).
• And fulltime in-person work is more persistent than many believe: Barrero (2022) found ~45% of workers expect to be
working full-time in-person after COVID and in one large global survey, 50% of business leaders in information worker roles
reported that they will require full-time in-person work in 2022 (Microsoft WTI 2022). In Microsoft China in mid-2021, 31% Barrero (2022)
of survey respondents were working full-time in-person despite the ability to work from home, with connectivity, Sample: U.S. workers
collaboration, and equipment as the primary drivers for in-office work (Wang et al. 2021).
• Big questions remain: Will employers become more flexible, or will workers come back to the office? Will they quit instead?
What are the implications of a strong vs. weak labor market? In a weaker labor market, would they behave the same?
Barrero, J. M. (2022). “Economic Review” The Work From Home Outlook in 2022 and Beyond.” Presented at the 2022 ASSA Meetings.
Barrero, J.M., et al. (2022). Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes April 2022 Updates. WFH Research.
Mas, A. & Pallais, A. (2017). Valuing Alternative Work Arrangements. American (12): 3722–59.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022. 9
Microsoft Study: Wang, Y., et al. (2021). GCR Hybrid Workplace Survey. [Internal]
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Microsoft Study: Forsgren, N., et al. (2021). The SPACE of Developer Productivity. ACM Queue 19(1): 1-29.
Harding, W.B. (2021). Software effort estimates vs popular developer productivity metrics: case study of empirical correlation.
Microsoft Study: Storey, M. A., et al. (2021) How Developers and Managers Define and Trade Productivity for Quality. arXiv preprint, arXiv:2111.04302v2.
Smith S., & Carette, J. (2021). Long-Term Productivity Based on Science, not Preference. arXiv:2112.12580v1. 10
Microsoft Study: Teevan, J. 2021. Let’s Redefine “Productivity” for the Hybrid Era. Harvard Business Review.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• A study of GitHub developers in 2020 found signs of increased output, with pull request volume and push volume up by 17%
and 16% respectively (Forsgren et al. 202)
• A recent international survey found that self-reported ‘efficiency’ was slightly higher when working from home in every country
surveyed. U.S. workers reported the highest gain at 7.0%, China had the lowest at 0.2%. The average across all countries was 4% Gibbs et al. (2021)
(Aksoy et al. 2022).
• Self-report data in other surveys is mixed, with typically a large subset of the sample reporting increases and another subset
reporting decreases (e.g., Ford et al. 2021).
• In a study of a large Asian IT services firm, productivity as measured by output/time dropped by 8-19%. Output declined only
slightly, but time spent working increased from ~5 to ~7 hours per day (Gibbs et al. 2021).
• In a large global survey, 80% of employees reported being as or more productive since going remote, but 54% of business
leaders reported fearing that productivity was negatively affected since the shift (Microsoft WTI 2022).
• In a survey at the start of the shift to remote work, similar numbers of engineers felt
more productive as felt less productive (37% and 32%, respectively) (Ford et al. 2020).
• Even within job type (program managers or developers) and family situation
(having children at home or not) there were substantial numbers of people in
both the more productive and less productive groups.
• “Focused work” was cited as a reason by both 58% of Microsoft employees who plan
to spend more time in the office and a 58% of those who plan to spend more time at
home (Microsoft 2021).
• Hybrid represents a trade-off between the benefits of being in-person versus the
benefits of not having to go into the office. Blending both may increase overall Ford et al. (2021)
productivity by 5% (Bloom 2021).
• A proviso is that some of the benefits of hybrid hinge on having a critical mass in the
office, so this needs to be managed.
Bloom, N. (2021). Hybrid Work is Here to Stay. Now What? (Back to Work, Better) HBR IdeaCast.
Microsoft Study: Ford, D., et al. (2022). A Tale of Two Cities: Software Developers Working from Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology 31(2). 12
Microsoft Study: Microsoft (2021). To Thrive in Hybrid Work, Build a Culture of Trust and Flexibility. Microsoft Worklab: Work Trend Index Pulse Report.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Jahncke, H., et al. (2011). Open-Plan Office Noise: Cognitive Performance and Restoration. Journal of Environmental Psychology 31(4): 373–82.
Künn, S., et al. (2019). Indoor Air Quality and Cognitive Performance. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1263.
Park, R. J. (2020). Heat and Learning. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 12(2): 306–39. 13
Microsoft Study: Reddy, C. K. A., et al. (2021). Interspeech 2021 Deep Noise Suppression Challenge. arXiv preprint, arXiv:2101.01902.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Diener, E., Sandvik, E., & Pavot, W. (1991). Happiness is the frequency, not the intensity, of positive versus negative affect. In F. Strack,et al. (Eds.), Subjective well-being: An interdisciplinary perspective (pp. 119–139). NY: Pergamon.
Dutton, J. E. (2003). Energize your workplace: How to create and sustain high-quality connections at work. John Wiley & Sons.
Fisher, C. (2014). Conceptualizing and Measuring Wellbeing at Work. Wellbeing, C.L. Cooper (Ed.).
Ryan, R., & Deci, E. (2001). On Happiness and Human Potentials: A Review of Research on Hedonic and Eudaimonic Well-Being. Annual Review of Psychology, 52, 141-166.
Ryff C. D. (2014). Psychological well-being revisited: advances in the science and practice of eudaimonia. Psychother Psychosom, 83(1):10-28.
Schimmack, U. (2007). Methodological issues in the assessment of the affective component of subjective well being. Handbook of methods in positive psychology, A. Ohn, & M. van Dulmen (Eds.), Oxford: Oxford University Press. 14
Shakespeare-Finch, J., & Obst, P. L. (2011). The development of the 2-way social support scale: A measure of giving and receiving emotional and instrumental support. Journal of Personality Assessment, 93, 483–490.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Feigon, M., et al. (2018). Work-life integration in neuropsychology: a review of the existing literature and preliminary recommendations. The Clinical Neuropsychologist, 2018, 32(2), 300-317.
Greenhaus, J. H., & Beutell, N. J. (1985). Sources of conflict between work and family roles. Academy of Management Review, 31(1), 72-92. 16
Kalliath, T., & Brough, P. (2008). A review of the meaning of the balance construct. Journal of Management and Organization, 14, 323-327.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Priorities have shifted towards tighter integration of work and personal needs
People report a greater need for prioritizing health, wellbeing, and family over work compared to pre-
pandemic times and they wish to better integrate those needs through how and where they work. This
requires renewed focus on spillover effects of performance, skills and affect across work and personal
life. Compared to pre-pandemic, how likely are you to
prioritize your health and wellbeing over work?”
• In Microsoft's Work Trend Index study, 47% of the survey respondents reported that they are more likely to
put family and personal life over work than they were before the pandemic (Microsoft WTI 2022).
• 53% reported they were more likely to prioritize their health and wellbeing over work than before (see
chart).
• Flexibility in where and how people work is a key priority moving forward: 51% of the hybrid employees
reported that they will consider a switch to remote, and 57% remote employees said that they will
consider a switch to hybrid.
• As people embrace hybrid and remote work, renewed focus is needed to best manage work-life integration
challenges. Pre-pandemic research on work-life integration has highlighted areas of importance (Edwards &
Rothbard 2000); these topics must be revisited with the current shift in working preferences.
• Performance: risk of pursuing the domain (between work and life) that offers greater rewards and
fulfilment at the expense of the other.
• Health and wellbeing: risk of increase in stress, fatigue and burnout due to resource drain in one
domain leaving insufficient resources for the other.
• Enrichment: benefits of skills, abilities, values and moods in one domain positively enhancing the
quality of life in another domain.
Edwards, J. R., & Rothbard, N. P. (2000). Mechanisms linking work and family: Clarifying the relationship between work and family constructs. Academy of Management Review, 25, 178-199. 17
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Ahmetoglu, Y., et al. (2021). Disengaged From Planning During the Lockdown? An Interview Study in an Academic Setting. IEEE Pervasive Computing, 20(4): 18-25.
Feigon, M., et al. (2018). Work-life integration in neuropsychology: a review of the existing literature and preliminary recommendations. The Clinical Neuropsychologist, 32(2): 300-317.
Microsoft Study: Houck, B. (2021). “Happy and productive hybrid developers: How to have it all” [video].
Nippert-Eng, C. E. (1996). Home and work: Negotiating boundaries through everyday life. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 18
Microsoft Study: Williams, A. C., et al. (2018). Supporting Workplace Detachment and Reattachment with Conversational Intelligence. Proceedings of the 2018 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems., Paper 88, 1–13.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Anderson, A. J., et al. (2015). The impact of telework on emotional experience: When, and for whom, does telework improve daily affective well-being? European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 24, 882–897.
Bentley, T. A., et al. (2016). The role of organisational support in teleworker wellbeing: A socio-technical systems approach. Applied Ergonomics, 52, 207–215.
Charalampous, M., et al. (2018). Systematically reviewing remote e-workers’ well-being at work: a multidimensional approach. European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology 28: 51 - 73.
Gajendran, R. S., & Harrison, D. A. (2007). The good, the bad, and the unknown about telecommuting: Meta-analysis of psychological mediators and individual consequences. Journal of Applied Psychology, 92, 1524–1541.
Mann, S., & Holdsworth, L. (2003). The psychological impact of teleworking: Stress, emotions and health. New Technology, Work and Employment, 18, 196–211. 19
Sardeshmukh, S. R., et al. (2012). Impact of telework on exhaustion and job engagement: A job demands and job resources model. New Technology, Work and Employment, 27, 193–207.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Working from home offers flexibility but also impacts permeability across domains
One’s level of work-life integration or segmentation depends on both the flexibility – one’s ability to
shift one’s boundary spatially or temporally to meet the demands of the other domain – and the
permeability – how much intrusion occurs from one domain to the other
• According to a national survey that followed Canadian workers between September 2019 and April-June 2020, during
the pandemic, work-life conflict decreased for people with no children at home, or with older children compared to pre-
pandemic. In contrast people with children < 12 years old did not see any change in the contention between work and
life demands (Schieman et al. 2021).
• A study with Redditors showed that choosing when and how to work gave them more freedom and flexibility to choose
how to spend their remaining time – including more leisure time with family, more time to work on personal projects and
hobbies and more freedom to exercise (Cho et al. 2022).
• On the other hand, flexible work patterns impact permeability- intrusion of work into personal time. Research has shown
emergence of a ‘third productivity peak’, where work hours are extending beyond the regular pre-pandemic 9-5, and
emails are shown to be the most frequent activity during the after-hour work (Morshed et al. 2021). Additional productivity peak after hours as indicated by
keyboard activity on productivity app (Morshed et al. 2021)
• Telemetry also showed an increase in the span of work time – a 46 minute increase in the span of workdays, 28%
increase in after-hours work, and a 14% increase in weekend work (Microsoft WTI 2022).
• After-hour communications may impact colleagues’ work-life balance. In a survey, 78% of engineers reported that it had
been challenging establishing a work-life boundary during COVID. Engineers who reported such challenges were 22%
more likely to report decreased productivity (Ford et al. 2021).
Cho, J., et al. (2022). Topophilia, Placemaking, and Boundary Work: Exploring the Psycho-Social Impact of the COVID-19 Work-From-Home Experience. Proceedings
of the ACM Human.-Computer Interact. 6, GROUP, Article 24.
Microsoft Study: Ford, D., et al. (2022). A Tale of Two Cities: Software Developers Working from Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic. ACM Transactions on
Software Engineering and Methodology 31(2).
Microsoft Study: Morshed, B. M., et al. (2022). Advancing the Understanding and Measurement of Workplace Stress in Remote Information Workers from Passive
Sensors and Behavioral Data. (Under Review) After hour collaboration is inversely related to work-
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022. life balance favorability scores (Storey et al. 2021) 20
Schieman, S., et al. (2021). Work-life conflict during the COVID-19 pandemic. Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World 7 (2021), 1–19.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
o Conflict between demands from home and work (selected by 35% of burned out respondents).
impact of COVID-19
7%
• An analysis of employee engagement survey comments also demonstrated increases in mentions of staffing and
workload issues (Glint 2020).
6%
• Microsoft’s longitudinal interviews with organizational decision makers over four time periods in 2020 also
highlighted rising burnout (Coleman 2020).
5%
o June 2020: moving to remote work had driven higher employee output, but many leaders saw these
Mar. 2021
Mar. 2020
May 2020
May 2021
Jan. 2020
Nov. 2019
Dec. 2019
Oct. 2020
Jan. 2021
Jan. 2022
Nov. 2020
Dec. 2020
Nov. 2021
Dec. 2021
Oct. 2019
Oct. 2021
Sep. 2019
Feb. 2020
Apr. 2020
Sep. 2020
Feb. 2021
Apr. 2021
Sep. 2021
Feb. 2022
Aug. 2019
Aug. 2020
Aug. 2021
Jun. 2020
Jun. 2021
Jul. 2019
Jul. 2020
Jul. 2021
productivity gains happening via longer working hours, not increased efficiency.
o September 2020: these same leaders struggled with burnout given the breadth of new challenges they faced:
e.g., employees relocating to new states or countries, client revenues falling, and the need to connect with
employees on a more regular, personalized basis.
Glint (2022)
“I am a naturally caffeinated person - I am ready to go into meetings and bring energy - but doing this Note: Glint’s Burnout Signal Rate (BSR) represents the percent of
remotely is simply exhausting as I have to look at the camera for 9 hours, it is a lot. I over energize” comments from a global sample accompanying the key
– Head of Global Ops & Strategy (Entertainment & Media) US Engagement question and assigned the tag 'Burnout' by
Narrative Intelligence.
• A survey of 2067 attorneys demonstrated that one cause of burnout is the work of feigning appropriate emotional
displays, an expectation in many other careers as well (Powers & Myers 2020).
Microsoft Study: Coleman, A (2020): 2020's indelible impact on the way we will work in the future. Microsoft Research.
Microsoft Study: Glint (2020). Employee Well-Being Report. LinkedIn.
Microsoft Study: Glint (2021). Employee Well-Being Report. LinkedIn.
Microsoft Study: Glint (2022). Employee Well-Being Report. LinkedIn.
Maslach, C., & Jackson, S. (1981). The measurement of experienced burnout. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 2(2), 99-113. 21
Powers, S. R., & Myers (2020). Work-Related Emotional Communication Model of Burnout: An Analysis of Emotions for Hire. Communication Management Quarterly, 34(2), 155-187.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Stress is costly and can lead to burnout at work, but interventions can help
Work-related stress increases the risk of mental and physical health disorders, decreases productivity
due to absenteeism and burnout, impairs decision making, decreases overall job satisfaction & increases
rates of stress-related accidents and employee medical, legal, and insurance costs.
• Workplace is the #1 stressor for American adults, costing the U.S. economy $300 billion annually (APA 2017).
COVID-19 has exacerbated these issues.
• Workplace stress can also spillover into life outside of work, disrupting the overall wellbeing of workers
(Grzywacz et al. 2002).
• Workplace stress intervention strategies such as organizational changes, individual stress management skills
training, & therapeutic counseling are recommended for long-term stress reduction (Cooper et al. 1997).
• Individual-based stress management interventions (e.g., cognitive-behavioral skills , meditation, exercise, etc.)
have been shown effective on psychological, physiological, and organizational outcome measures (Richardson
et al. 2008; Howe et al. 2022).
• We have an opportunity to tightly integrate digital micro-interventions into productivity tools to significantly
reduce stress (Howe et al. 2022).
• In a survey of tech employees, frequent and intense stressors are commonly associated with work overload
and its impact on work-life balance (Morshed et al. 2022, see figure).
Morshed et al. (2022)
APA Working Group on Stress and Health Disparities (2017). Stress and health disparities: Contexts, mechanisms, and interventions among racial/ethnic minority and low-socioeconomic status populations.
Cooper, C. L., & Cartwright, S. (1997). An intervention strategy for workplace stress. Journal of psychosomatic research 43(1), 7–16.
Grzywacz, J. G., et al. (2002). Work– family spillover and daily reports of work and family stress in the adult labor force. Family relations 51(1).
Microsoft Study: Howe, E., et al. (2022). Design of Digital Workplace Stress-Reduction Intervention Systems: Effects of Intervention Type and Timing. CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI ’22).
Microsoft Study: Morshed, M. B., et al. (2022). “Advancing the Understanding and Measurement of Workplace Stress in Remote Information Workers from Passive Sensors and Behavioral Data.” (Under Review) 22
Richardson, K. M. & Rothstein, H. R. (2008). Effects of occupational stress management intervention programs: a meta-analysis. Journal of Occupational Health Psychology 13(1).
Team
Collaboration
Key Contributors: Sean Rintel, Abigail
Sellen, Mar Gonzalez Franco, Aaron
Halfaker, Victor Poznanski, Kori
Inkpen, Marcus Ash, Piali Choudhury,
Shiraz Cupala, Kunal Gupta
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
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Hooijberg, R., & Watkins, M. (2021). The Future of Team Leadership Is Multimodal. MIT Sloan Management Review.
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Dhawan, N., et al. (2021.) Videoconferencing Etiquette: Promoting Gender Equity During Virtual Meetings. Journal of Women’s Health, 30(4): 460–465.
Garcia, R., et al. (2022). Gender Influence on Communication Initiated within Student Teams. ACM SIGCSE’22, 1: 432–438.
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Toumi, K., et al. (2021). Technologies for Supporting Creativity in Design: A View of Physical and Virtual Environments with Regard to Cognitive and Social Processes. Creativity. Theories – Research – Applications, 8(1): 189–212.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Microsoft Study: Das, M., et al. (2021). Towards Accessible Remote Work: Understanding Work-from-Home Practices of Neurodivergent Professionals. Proc. ACM-HCI 5 (CSCW1), Article 183. 32
Standaert, W., et al. (2021). How shall we meet? Understanding the importance of meeting mode capabilities for different meeting objectives. Information & Management, 58(1), Article 103393.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Frisch, B., & Greene, C. (2021, June 3). What It Takes to Run a Great Hybrid Meeting. Harvard Business Review.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft (2022). Hybrid Work Solutions for a Hybrid Workplace.
Mroz, J. E., et al. (2018). Do We Really Need Another Meeting? The Science of Workplace Meetings. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 27(6), 484–491.
Reed, K. M., & Allen, J. A. (2022). Suddenly Hybrid: Managing the Modern Meeting. John Wiley & Sons.
Microsoft Study: Saatçi, B., et al. (2019). Hybrid Meetings in the Modern Workplace: Stories of Success and Failure. In H. Nakanishi, H., et al. (Eds.), Collaboration Technologies and Social Computing (pp. 45–61). Springer. 33
Saatçi, B., et al. (2020). (Re)Configuring Hybrid Meetings: Moving from User-Centered Design to Meeting-Centered Design. Computer Supported Cooperative Work, 29, 769-294.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Bailenson, J. N., (2021). Nonverbal Overload: A Theoretical Argument for the Causes of Zoom Fatigue. Technology, Mind, and Behavior. 2(1), Article tmb0000030 .
Döring, N. (2022). Videoconference Fatigue: A Conceptual Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(4), Article 2061.
Fauville, G., et al. (2021). Nonverbal Mechanisms Predict Zoom Fatigue and Explain Why Women Experience Higher Levels than Men. Social Science Research Network, 3820035.
Kuhn, K. M. (2022). The constant mirror: Self-view and attitudes to virtual meetings. Computers in Human Behavior, 128, Article 107110.
Raake, A., et al. (2022). Technological Factors Influencing Videoconferencing and Zoom Fatigue, arXiv preprint, arXiv.2202.01740.
Riedl, R. (2021). On the stress potential of videoconferencing: definition and root causes of Zoom fatigue. Electronic Markets, December 6. 35
Microsoft Study: Tang, J. (2021). Understanding the Telework Experience of People with Disabilities. Proc. ACM-HCI 5(CSCW1), Article 30.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Microsoft Study: Cutler, R., et al. (2021). Meeting Effectiveness and Inclusiveness in Remote Collaboration. Proc. ACM-HCI, 5(CSCW1), Article 173.
Okabe-Miyamoto, K., et al. (2021). Did zoom bomb? Negative video conferencing meetings during COVID-19 undermined worker subjective productivity. Human Behavior and Emerging Technologies, 3(5), 1067–1083.
Castelli, F. R., & Sarvary, M. A. (2021). Why students do not turn on their video cameras during online classes and an equitable and inclusive plan to encourage them to do so. Ecology and Evolution, 11(8), 3565–3576.
Microsoft (2022). The Future of Hybrid Work – See What’s next for the Future of Hybrid Work.
Microsoft Study: Panel: Perspectives on the new future of hybrid meetings. (2021). Microsoft Research Summit 2021.
Microsoft Study: Tang, J. (2021). Understanding the Telework Experience of People with Disabilities. Proc. ACM-HCI, 5(CSCW1), Article 30.
Microsoft Study: Cao, H., et al. (2021). Large Scale Analysis of Multitasking Behavior During Remote Meetings. ACM CHI’21, Article 448.
Saatçi, B., et al. (2020). (Re)Configuring Hybrid Meetings: Moving from User-Centered Design to Meeting-Centered Design. Computer Supported Cooperative Work, 29, 769-294. 36
Microsoft Study: Zhang, Y., et al. (2022). VirtualCube: An Immersive 3D Video Communication System. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics. 28(5), 2146–2156.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
37
Microsoft Study: Sarkar, A., et al. (2021). The promise and peril of parallel chat in video meetings for work. ACM CHI EA’21, Article 260.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Microsoft Study: Das, M., et al. (2021). Towards Accessible Remote Work: Understanding Work-from-Home Practices of Neurodivergent Professionals. Proc. ACM-HCI 5(CSCW1), Article 183.
Lee, C. Y. P., et al. (2021). CollabAlly: Accessible Collaboration Awareness in Document Editing. ACM CHI’22, Article 596.
Leporini, B., et al. (2021). Distance meetings during the covid-19 pandemic: are video conferencing tools accessible for blind people? ACM W4A ’21, Article 7 .
Millett, P. (2021). Accuracy of Speech-to-Text Captioning for Students Who are Deaf or Hard of Hearing. Journal of Educational, Pediatric & (Re) Habilitative Audiology, 25, Article 21.
Pandey, M. (2021). Understanding Accessibility and Collaboration in Programming for People with Visual Impairments. Proc. ACM-HCI 5(CSCW1), Article 129.
Microsoft Study: Tang, J. (2021). Understanding the Telework Experience of People with Disabilities. Proc. ACM-HCI 5(CSCW1), Article 30.
Wolfe, R., et al. (2021). State of the Art and Future Challenges of the Portrayal of Facial Nonmanual Signals by Signing Avatar. In Universal Access in Human-Computer Interaction. Design Methods and User Experience, Springer, 38
Zolyomi, A., & Snyder, J. (2021). Social-Emotional-Sensory Design Map for Affective Computing Informed by Neurodivergent Experiences. Proc. ACM-HCI 5(CSCW1), Article 77.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Saatçi, B., et al. (2020). (Re)Configuring Hybrid Meetings: Moving from User-Centered Design to Meeting-Centered Design. Computer Supported Cooperative Work, 29, 769-294.
Microsoft Study: Panel: Perspectives on the new future of hybrid meetings. (2021). Microsoft Research Summit 2021. 39
Microsoft Study: Zhang, Y., et al. (2022). VirtualCube: An Immersive 3D Video Communication System. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics. 28(5), 2146–2156.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Barlette, Y., et al. (2021). Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) as reversed IT adoption: Insights into managers’ coping strategies. International Journal of Information Management 56, Article 102212.
Brudy, F., et al. (2019). Cross-Device Taxonomy: Survey, Opportunities and Challenges of Interactions Spanning Across Multiple Devices. CHI’19, Article 562.
Edelmann, N., et al. (2021). Remote Work in Public Sector Organisations: Employees’ Experiences in a Pandemic Context. DG.O2021, 408–415.
Microsoft Study: Ford, D., et al. (2022) A Tale of Two Cities: Software Developers Working from Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic. ACM TOSEM, 31(2), Article 27. 41
Nguyen, N. T., et al. (2021). Intelligent Shifting Cues: Increasing the Awareness of Multi-Device Interaction Opportunities. ACM UMAP ’21, 213–223 .
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• Jetter et al. (2021) propose the concept of Transitional Interfaces (TIs) enabling seamless
integration of systems along the Reality to Virtual Reality continuum, depending on users’ tasks
and needs.
• Radu et al. (2021) developed a set of 18 core needs for collocated AR. Active needs include
awareness of others’ attention and activities, and coordination of attention and instructions.
However, privacy adds a key complexity, because the need for shared awareness is in tension
with preventing the leakage of private information.
• Miller & Bailenson (2021) note that a current specific limitation for AR is that the digital field of
view is a subset of the full human field of view. Virtual characters outside the digital field of
view receive lower social presence scores, but task performance is not lower. Application
designers may expect some users to look around to bring ‘missing’ things back into view, but The Transitional Interface continuum (Jetter et al. 2021)
a subset of people may never look back or around when focused on a task.
• VR/AR collaboration research has well-documented accessibility problems. As interest
increases, accessibility must be a priority design issue from the outset (Mott et al. 2020).
Jetter, H. C., et al. (2021). Transitional Interfaces in Mixed and Cross-Reality: A new frontier? ISS’21: 46–49.
Miller, M. R., & Bailenson, J. N. (2021). Social Presence Outside the Augmented Reality Field of View. Frontiers in Virtual Reality, 7, Article frvir.2021.656473
Microsoft Study: Mott, M. et al. (2020). “I just went into it assuming that I wouldn't be able to have the full experience”: Understanding the Accessibility of Virtual Reality for People with Limited Mobility. ACM ASSETS’20,
Article 43. 44
Radu, I., et al. (2021). A Survey of Needs and Features for Augmented Reality Collaborations in Collocated Spaces. ACM-HCI, 5(CSCW1), Article 160.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
McVeigh-Schultz, J., et al. (2018). Immersive Design Fiction: Using VR to Prototype Speculative Interfaces and Interaction Rituals within a Virtual Storyworld. ACM DIS’18: 817–829. 46
Simeone, A. L., et al. (2022). Immersive Speculative Enactments: Bringing Future Scenarios and Technology to Life Using Virtual Reality. ACM CHI ’22, Article 17.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Bonnardel, N., & Pichot, N. (2020). Enhancing collaborative creativity with virtual dynamic personas. Applied Ergonomics, 82: Article 102949.
Chung, J. J. Y., et al. (2021). The Intersection of Users, Roles, Interactions, and Technologies in Creativity Support Tools, ACM DIS ’21: 1817–1833.
Grønbæk, J. E., et al. (2021). MirrorBlender: Supporting Hybrid Meetings with a Malleable Video-Conferencing System’ ACM CHI’21, Article 451. 47
Toumi, K. (2021). Technologies for Supporting Creativity in Design: A View of Physical and Virtual Environments with Regard to Cognitive and Social Processes. Creativity. Theories – Research – Applications, 8(1): 189–212.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Criado Perez, C. (2019). Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men. Random House.
Grassini, S., & Laumann, K. (2020). Are Modern Head-Mounted Displays Sexist? A Systematic Review on Gender Differences in HMD-Mediated Virtual Reality. Frontiers in Psychology, Article fpsyg.2020.01604
Lawson, B. D, & Stanney, K. M. (2021). Editorial: Cybersickness in Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality. Frontiers in Virtual Reality, frvir.2021.759682.
MacArthur, C., et al. (2021). You’re Making Me Sick: A Systematic Review of How Virtual Reality Research Considers Gender & Cybersickness. ACM CHI’21, Article 401. 48
Saredakis, D., et al. (2020). Factors Associated With Virtual Reality Sickness in Head-Mounted Displays: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, fnhum.2020.00096
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
The power of AI in the future of work hinges on getting the role of AI right
Human–AI collaboration is likely to increasingly augment human abilities, but human-centric AI points
to empowering rather than emulating humans.
Microsoft Study: Amershi, S., et al. (2019). Guidelines for Human-AI Interaction. Proceedings of the 2019 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, Article 3300233.
Seeber, I., et al. (2020). Machines as teammates: A research agenda on AI in team collaboration. Information & Management, 57(2), 103174. 49
Shneiderman, B. (2020). Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence: Three Fresh Ideas. AIS Transactions on Human-Computer Interaction, 12(3), 109-124.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• AI can be used to capture inclusive behaviours that are verbal and non-verbal (e.g., turn-
taking, sentiment, consensus, questions). A study of longitudinal use in a large global
technology company showed that post-meeting dashboards with explanations of
inclusivity measures and suggestions may enable both personal reflection and
organizational meeting training (Samrose et al. 2021).
• Neibuhr et al. (2021) report that meetings that are perceived to be more effective are
characterized by affectively calmer, simpler, and shorter prosody (patterns of voice stress
and intonation). However, more objectively productive meetings (generating a high
output of feasible or good ideas) are characterized by lively, interactive, stimulating
prosody. Such meeting productivity is correlated with the overall sound of the individual
meetings, with pitch features being the most diverse and powerful predictors. Prosodic
analysis of meetings could be implemented in AI dashboards such as those above,
enabling methods for tracking meeting effectiveness that preserve privacy by not
requiring transcript analysis. Post-meeting dashboards of collected inclusive behaviours can Improve
meeting culture and training (Samrose et al. 2021)
• Margariti et al. (2022) note that when talk behaviours are tracked for inclusion reporting,
it is important to look beyond simplistic assumptions. For example, overlapping talk is
not necessarily negative – it may be either competitive or cooperative, and either may be
indicative of positive or negative inclusion. They also argue for privacy preserving
methods for finding and tracking such talk.
Microsoft Study: Margariti, E., et al. (2022). Automated mapping of competitive and collaborative overlapping talk in video meetings. ACM CHI EA’22, Article 311.
Niebuhr, O., et al. (2021). On the Sound of Successful Meetings: How Speech Prosody Predicts Meeting Performance. ICIMI’21, 240-248. 50
Microsoft Study: Samrose, S., et al. (2021). MeetingCoach: An Intelligent Dashboard for Supporting Effective & Inclusive Meetings. ACM CHI’21, Article 252.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Async meeting experiences are needed, and summarization tech can help
Advanced information filtering and summarization systems may help improve the information choice
and overload challenges of pre-meeting materials, parallel chat, and post-meeting catch-up.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022.
Rogelberg, S. G. (2018). The Surprising Science of Meetings: How You Can Lead Your Team to Peak Performance. Oxford.
Sachdeva, K., Maynez, J., & Siohan, O. (2021). Action Item Detection in Meetings Using Pretrained Transformers. IEEE ASRU’21, 2021, 861-868. 52
Microsoft Study: Zhao, Q., et al. (2018). Calendar-Aware Proactive Email Recommendation. ACM SIGIR ’18, 655–664 .
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
El Mezouar, M., et al. (2021). Exploring the Use of Chatrooms by Developers: An Empirical Study on Slack and Gitter. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Article 3109617.
Meluso, J., et al. (2022). Flexible Environments for Hybrid Collaboration: Redesigning Virtual Work Through the Four Orders of Design. Design Issues, 38(1), 55–69.
Soga, L. R., et al. (2021). Web 2.0-enabled team relationships: an actor-network perspective. European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology 30(5), 639–652. 53
Microsoft Study: Hillman, S., et al. (2022) The BLUE Framework: Designing User-Centered In-Product Feedback for Large Scale Applications. ACM CHI EA’22, Article 21.
Organizational
Change
Key Contributors: Kagonya Awori, Nancy
Baym, Adam Coleman, Ed Doran,
Elizabeth Fetterolf, Constance N. Hadley,
Stacey Levine, Rick Pollak, Sean Rintel,
Neha Shah, Amy Stevenson, Mengting
Wan
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Carmody, D., et al. (2022). "The effect of co-location of human communication networks." arXiv preprint, arXiv:2201.02230.
Microsoft Study: Larson, J., et al. (2021). "Dynamic Silos: Increased Modularity in Intra-organizational Communication Networks during the Covid-19 Pandemic." arXiv preprint, arXiv:2104.00641. 55
Microsoft Study: Yang, L., et al. (2021). The Effects of Remote Work on Collaboration among Information Workers. Nature Human Behavior, 6, 43-54.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Charalampous, M., et al. (2019). Systematically reviewing remote e-workers’ well-being at work: A multidimensional approach. European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 28(1), 51-73.
Microsoft Study: Glint (2021). People science culture consultation deck. LinkedIn. [Internal]
Methot, J. R., et al. (2021). Office chitchat as a social ritual: The uplifting yet distracting effects of daily small talk at work. Academy of Management Journal, 64(5), 1445-1471. 56
Parker, A., et al. (2022). "The coevolution of emotional job demands and work-based social ties and their effect on performance." Journal of Management (2022).
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• Gig or freelance workers report significantly higher loneliness rates than those working for a private company (e.g., 82% vs.
61%) (Glavin et al. 2021; CIGNA 2020).
American Psychiatric Association (2021) As Americans Begin to Return to the Office, Views on Workplace Mental Health Are Mixed. Psychiatry.org.
CIGNA (2020). Loneliness and the Workplace 2020 US Report.
Glavin, P., et al. (2021). Über-Alienated: Powerless and Alone in the Gig Economy. Work and Occupations, 48(4), 399–431.
Hadley, C., & Mortensen, M. (2020) Are Your Team Members Lonely? MIT Sloan Management Review.
Holt-Lunstad, J., et al. (2010) Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review. PLoS Med 7(7): e1000316.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022.
Murthy, V. (2017) Work and the Loneliness Epidemic: Reducing isolation at work is good for business. Harvard Business Review.
Ozcelik, H., & Barsade S. G. (2018). No Employee an Island: Workplace Loneliness and Job Performance. Academy of Management Journal, 61(6) 2343-2366. 57
Peytrignet, S., et al. (2020). Loneliness monetization report. Simetrica.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• During the pandemic, technology adoption was guided by socio-tecture. Based on a study with SMBs in Kenya during the
• When choosing communication tools, SMBs preferred WhatsApp over others, as it better enabled pandemic, SMBs prefer communication tools that better
them to build trusted relationships and strengthen loose ties – for example, requiring users' phone afford the creation/management of strong ties, a key facet
numbers to connect on WhatsApp helped the SMB engage more personally with their customers; of socio-tecture
WhatsApp groups helped SMBs build closed networks with people they could verify (Awori et (Awori et al. 2022)
al. 2022).
• Many SMBs and their customers prefer social commerce – a development in e-commerce that
leverages social media and participatory Web 2.0 technologies to enable interaction between
businesses and their customers, and among customers (Turban et al. 2010) – because it affords
better social engagement and interaction (Pon 2020; Naghavi 2019).
Microsoft Study: Awori, K., et al. (2022). “It’s only when somebody says a tool worked for them that I believe it will work for me”: Socio-tecture as a lens for digital transformation. (Under Review)
Turban, E., et al. (2010). Social Commerce: An e-Commerce Perspective. ICEC ‘10 Association for Computing Machinery, 33-42.
Naghavi, N. (2019). Social commerce in emerging markets: Understanding the landscape and opportunities for mobile money.GMSA 58
Pon, B. (2020). The race to digitize commerce in sub-Saharan Africa: How Jumia and Facebook are competing, even though they’re playing different games. Medium.com
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
The work of building social capital increased, but was often unrecognized
Social capital is essential to the success of organizations, but social capital builders are often uncredited
and unrewarded. These dynamics likely got worse during the pandemic.
• Social capital is a collective good. It is both a resource exchanged within relationships and a structure of relationships (Adler &
Kwon 2009). Organizational networks rich in equitable strong and weak ties can lead to less absenteeism and turnover, better
performance, more creativity, more efficiency, and more revenue (Ben Hador 2016; Sözbilir 2017; Westlund & Adam 2010).
• In on-site work, relationship building often happens alongside the formal events of the day (Kraut et al. 1990). Without
opportunities for spontaneous informal interaction in remote work, it takes additional effort to build and maintain relationships
(Charalampous et al. 2019).
• 43% of leaders say building social capital is the biggest challenge of remote and hybrid work (Microsoft WTI 2022), yet
organizations often privilege work that produces products and services directly over “nonmonetized production” (Jarrett 2014)
such as building relationships. This kind of “connective labor” (Pugh 2021) is often disproportionately expected of women (Jarrett
2014).
• In a survey of 850 American office workers, 51% indicated they have made greater efforts to provide support for their colleagues
than before the pandemic, while only 15% said they were doing less. 85% of employees said their organizations encouraged or
strongly encouraged people to support each other and 80% said they felt somewhat or strongly obligated to go above and
beyond to support co-workers. Yet nearly 25% indicated that in their organization, providing support for others was not at all
rewarded, and only 34% said providing such support was strongly rewarded (Baym et al. in progress).
• New tools aim to help by suggesting potential weak ties, such as Bridger (Portenoy et al. 2022), which is designed to facilitate
discovery of scholars in areas somewhat related but also somewhat novel to a researcher's current areas of work.
Adler, P. S., & Kwon, S. W. (2009). Social Capital: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Working Paper MKT 03-09; Marshall Research Paper Series, pp. 89–115). University of Southern California.
Microsoft Study: Baym, N., et al. (in progress). Social Support Among Co-workers: A survey of American Office Workers.
People report being expected to
Charalampous, M., et al. (2019). Systematically reviewing remote e-workers’ well-being at work: A multidimensional approach. European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 28(1), 51-73.
Ben Hador, B. (2016). How intra-organizational social capital influences employee performance. Journal of Management Development, 35(9), 1119–1133. provide support more than they
Jarrett, K. (2014). The Digital Housewife, Routledge. report being rewarded for it
Kraut, R., et al. (1990). Informal communication in organizations: Form, Function, and Technology in Human Reactions to Technology: Claremont Symposium on Applied Social Psychology. (Baym et al.)
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022.
Pugh, A. (2021). Emotions and the systematization of connective labor. Theory, Culture & Society.
Sözbilir, F. (2018). The interaction between social capital, creativity and efficiency in organizations. Thinking Skills and Creativity, 9.
Westlund, H., & Adam, F. (2010). Social Capital and Economic Performance: A Meta-analysis of 65 Studies. European Planning Studies, 18(6), 893–919. 59
Portenoy, J. et al. (2022) Bursting Scientific Filter Bubbles: Boosting Innovation Via Novel Author Discovery. ACM SIGCHI 2022.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Microsoft Study: Baym, N., et al. (in progress). Social Support Among Co-workers: A survey of American Office Workers.
Bergstrom, K. (2022). When a Door Becomes a Window: using Glassdoor to examine Game Industry Work Cultures. Information, Communication and Society.
Microsoft Study: LinkedIn (2021). Internal employee engagement research. Sull et al. (2022b)
Parker, K., & Horowitz, J. M. (2022). Majority of workers who quit a job in 2021 cite low pay, no opportunities for advancement, feeling disrespected. Pew
Research Center.
Sull, D., et al. (2022a). Toxic Culture is Driving the Great Resignation. Sloan Management Review. 60
Sull, D., et al. (2022b) Why Every Leader Needs to Worry About Toxic Culture. Sloan Management Review.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Bloom, N. et al. (2015). Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 130(1), 165–218.
Bloom, N. et al. (2022). How Hybrid Work From Home Works Out (Preliminary).
Golden, T.D. & Veiga, J.F. (2005). The Impact of Extent of Telecommuting on Job Satisfaction: Resolving Inconsistent Findings. Journal of Management. 31(2), 301–318. 61
Moen, P., et al. (2011). Does Enhancing Work-Time Control and Flexibility Reduce Turnover? A Naturally Occurring Experiment. Social problems. 58(1), 69–98
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Microsoft’s history with hybrid reinforces the role of managers and technology
Since its founding in 1975, Microsoft has had remote and hybrid employees, yet much of the company
experienced a pandemic learning curve that was not that different from many other organizations.
• Microsoft’s original mission of “a computer on every desk and in every home” included an emphasis on supporting
at-home business activities.
• Microsoft has done research on remote work and telepresence for 30+ years (Teevan & Hecht 2020). Microsoft
product offerings reflect that, starting with MS-DOS support for modems in 1981.
• The company began in a hybrid fashion, with co-founder Bill Gates working remotely from Harvard.
• However, remote work was not a norm for all but a few functions, like sales. That is because the physical workplace
has historically been an important enabler of work. Microsoft developers needed to go into the office since that was
where the computers and connectivity were fastest, and even the field was dependent on business equipment at the
office in the 80s and 90s. The ability to work from home depended on the reliability and performance of the
expanding internet infrastructure.
• Work hours at Microsoft have always been flexible. An early employee handbook from Fall 1985 states: “You should
establish your normal working hours with your manager and agree with him/her on the degree of acceptable
variance in those hours.”
A snippet of the floor plan from the first Microsoft office
• Microsoft employees did not historically spend all of their time at the office working, however. Code compilation in Albuquerque,1976, shows Bill Gates’ future workspace.
used to mean many minutes of downtime for developers. Personal activities at work remain culturally acceptable.
Microsoft Study: Stevenson, A. (2022). Microsoft’s Pre-Pandemic History of Hybrid 1975-2020: A Perspective from the Corporate Archivist. [Internal] 62
Microsoft Study: Teevan, J. & Hecht, B, (2020). “How research can enable more effective remote work.” Microsoft Research Blog.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
74%
• A 2021 Gartner study of 4000 employees showed a significant difference between executives' and employees’ perceptions: 75% of executives said
their companies offered flexibility, but only 57% of employees did (Baker 2021).
• An internal survey for Citrix’s Work 2035 Project in May 2021 showed that while 86% of employees prefer to work for a company that prioritizes
outcomes over output, only 50% of HR directors said their organization would be more productive if employees felt their employer/senior of managers say they
management team trusted them to get the job done without monitoring their progress (Minahan 2021). don’t have the influence
or resources to make
• Many organizations still rely on one way organization-to-employee relationships, but organizations with means for employees to communicate change for employees
upwards build stronger organization-employee relationships and are more resilient (Kim 2021). Insights from customer interviews reinforce this
54%
increasing need to adapt and think differently about employees, as encapsulated by this participant comment:
• “Trust people to do the job they are employed to do. We moved forward 10-15 years in how the organization thinks about employees just in
the past 18 months” - Senior Wealth Manager | Banking | UK (Coleman 2021).
of managers say
leadership is out of touch
Citrix citation in HBR (2021). What Your Future Employees Want Most. Hybrid Business Review. with employees
Microsoft Study: Coleman, A. (2021). How business leaders are preparing for a new period of workplace uncertainty. Microsoft Research.
Baker, M. (2021). What is work really like today? Leaders and employees see things differently. Gartner.
Kim, Y. (2021). Building organizational resilience through strategic internal communication and organization-employee relationships. Journal of Applied Communication Research.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022. 63
Minahan, T. (2021). What Your Future Employees Want Most. Harvard Business Review.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Allen, T. D., et al. (2015). How Effective Is Telecommuting? Assessing the Status of Our Scientific Findings. Psychological Science in the Public Interest 16(2) 40–68. 64
Microsoft Study: Ford, D., et al. (2022). A Tale of Two Cities: Software Developers Working from Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic. ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology 31(2).
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Lam, H. K., et al. (2016). The impact of firms’ social media initiatives on operational efficiency and innovativeness. Journal of Operations Management.
Schrage, M., (2021). The Transformational Power of Recommendation. MIT Sloan Management Review, 62(2), pp.17-21. 65
Microsoft Study: Yin, Q., et al. (2021). Optimizing People You May Know (PYMK) for equity in network creation. LinkedIn Engineering.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Olson, J. S., & Olson, G. M. (2013). Working Together Apart: Collaboration over the Internet. Synthesis Lectures on Human-Centered Informatics 6(5), 1–151.
Olson, G. M., & Olson, J. S. (2000). Distance matters. Human-Computer Interaction 15(2), 139–178. 66
Xinlan E. H., et al. (2022). A "Distance Matters" Paradox: Facilitating Intra-Team Collaboration Can Harm Inter-Team Collaboration. Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction, 6(CSCW1), Article 48.
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Jahncke, H., et al. (2011). “Open-Plan Office Noise: Cognitive Performance and Restoration.” Journal of Environmental Psychology 31(4), 373–82.
JLL (2016), A Surprising Way to Cut Real Estate Costs.
Kabo, F. W., et al. (2014). “Proximity Effects on the Dynamics and Outcomes of Scientific Collaborations.” Research Policy 43(9), 1469–85. 67
Miranda, A. S., & Claudel, M. (2021). “Spatial Proximity Matters: A Study on Collaboration.” PLOS ONE 16, no. 12.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• Students prefer learning in the 2D videogame style spatial environments of systems like Gather.Town or Sococo in
comparison to other learning platforms. An important aspect of this preference is the ease of moving between social
encounters (Latulipe & De Jaeger 2022; McClure & Williams 2021).
• Spatial environments are reported to encourage both focused and ad hoc collaboration (Najjar et al. 2022).
• More abstract spatial environments that do not have illustrated characters and maps, but do have spatial audio, are also
rated highly for enabling quick transitions between focused presentations, workshops, and networking at events
(Rogers et al. 2021).
• Jacobs and Lindley (2021) report that such spaces tend to be popular in bursts – for short periods in a day or for a few
days for a conference. However, it remains to be seen if such spaces are fatiguing or lose their novelty throughout full
workdays and over weeks and months.
• Being based on a videogame paradigm, most also require significantly more accessibility support for blind and low
2D videogame style environments such as
vision (BLV) users, users with motor impairments, and other people with disabilities.
Gather enable transitions between different
kinds of talk
Jacobs, N. J., & Lindley, J. (2021). Room for improvement in the video conferencing “space.” AoIR Selected Papers of Internet Research.
Latulipe, C., & De Jaeger, A. (2022). Comparing Student Experiences of Collaborative Learning in Synchronous CS1 Classes in Gather.Town vs. Zoom. SIGCSE 2022.
McClure, C. D., & Williams, P. N. (2021). Gather.town: an opportunity for self-paced learning in a synchronous, distance learning environment. Journal of Learning and Teaching.
Najjar, N., et al. (2022). Evaluating Students’ Perceptions of Online Learning with 2-D Virtual Spaces. SIGCSE 2022. 68
Rogers, B., et al. (2021). BubbleVideo: Supporting Small Group Interactions in Online Conferences. In Human-Computer Interaction – INTERACT 2021, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 67–75.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Lam, H. K., et al. (2016). The impact of firms’ social media initiatives on operational efficiency and innovativeness. Journal of Operations Management.
Wang, Z., & Wang, N. (2012). Knowledge sharing, innovation and firm performance. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(10), 8899-8908.
Burt, R. S. (2007). Brokerage and Closure: An Introduction to Social Capital. Oxford University Press. 69
Sanz-Cruzado, J., & Castells, P. (2018). Enhancing structural diversity in social networks by recommending weak ties. In Proceedings of the 12th ACM conference on recommender systems.
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Chory, R. M., et al. (2016). Organizational Surveillance of Computer-Mediated Workplace Communication: Employee Privacy Concerns and Responses. Employee Responsibilities and Rights Journal 28(1):23–43.
Microsoft Study: Ravid, D. M., et al. (2020). A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Digital Surveillance of Workers: A Psychology Focused Approach. In New Future of Work Symposium, Microsoft. 70
Thiel, C., et al. (2021). Stripped of Agency: The Paradoxical Effect of Employee Monitoring on Deviance. Academy of Management Proceedings, 1.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Nguyen (2021)
Ball, K. (2021). Electronic monitoring and surveillance in the workplace: Literature review and policy recommendations. Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
Nguyen, A. (2021). The Constant Boss: Work under digital surveillance. Data & Society Research Institute.
Stark, L., et al. (2020). “I Don’t Want Someone to Watch Me While I’m Working”: Gendered Views of Facial Recognition Technology in Workplace Surveillance. Journal of the Association for Information Science and
Technology, 71: 1074– 1088. 71
Vargas, T. L. (2017). Employees or Suspects? Surveillance and Scrutinization of Low-Wage Service Workers in U.S. Dollar Stores. Journal of Labor and Society, 20(2), 207–230.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• Network scraping attacks use publicly posted images of meetings as a seed for identifying and maliciously acting
upon individuals or teams. Kagan et al. (2020) show how a person’s face and other extracted features may be
compared against social media posts to enable identification. Photos from multiple meetings may also identify
co-workers and content. This may then be used against individuals, families, teams, and organizations.
• Organizations should inform employees about risks from posting meeting photos/videos to social media.
Platforms could support more privacy modes.
• Deepfakes in video meetings (Westerland 2019) are AI-generated realistic-appearing artificial representations of
people generated from image, video, and/or voice samples. They allow one person to appear as another and have
potential for misuse when team members meet with unknown others (Mullen 2022). They also may be used for Public posting of video meeting images
cultural identity appropriation (Bode et al. 2021), such as a white person representing themselves as a black allows malicious aggregation (Kagan et
person, which could affect team trust and morale. Creating and detecting deepfakes is an ongoing arms race al. 2020)
(Zhou 2021; Kagan 2022; Mullen 2022). (See slide 45 on avatar acceptance.)
• Industry coalitions like the Content Authenticity Initiative and C2PA (of which Microsoft is a founding
member) working on digital content provenance present possible strategies for mitigating these and
related risks.
• Margherita & Heikkilä (2021) investigated the actions undertaken by 50 world-leading corporations to respond
to COVID-19 to develop a five-level framework to ensure continuous collaboration in the face of disruption. The
levels are: operations, customer, workforce, leadership, and community-related responses.
• A report by McKinsey highlighted disruptions due to climate change as a major future trend that will shape how
organizations function and present a potential barrier to thriving (Pinner et al. 2020).
• Chen et al. (2021) conducted exploratory case studies (using textual data, such as company materials, media
coverage, employee accounts, and annual reports) of six major companies deemed highly resilient, including
Microsoft. They found five dimensions of resilience—capital, strategic, relationship, cultural, and learning—that
allowed these companies to continue growing after a crisis.
• Organizational resilience has direct impacts on employees. A study of 2,225 software developers from 53
countries found that for these employees, fear of both the current pandemic and future bio-events might
be facilitating lower productivity and well-being. Disaster preparedness among employees was correlated with
higher perceived productivity and organizational support was deemed essential (Ralph et al. 2020). Furthermore,
a survey of prospective employers by Krasna et al. (2020) found that 91.7% of respondents thought that the need
for employees with training that encompasses both public health and climate change responses will grow over
the next decade.
Chen, R., et al. (2021). Defining, Conceptualizing, and Measuring Organizational Resilience: A Multiple Case Study. Sustainability, 13, 2517.
Krasna. H., et al. (2020). The Future of Careers at the Intersection of Climate Change and Public Health: What Can Job Postings and an Employer Survey Tell Us? International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
Margherita, A., & Heikkilä, M. (2021). Business continuity in the COVID-19 emergency…. Business Horizons 64(5), 683–695.
Pinner, D., et al. (2020). Addressing climate change in a post-pandemic world. McKinsey Quarterly. 73
Ralph, P., et al. (2020). Pandemic programming: how COVID-19 affects software developers and how their organizations can help. Empirical Software Engineering 25(6).
Societal Impacts
Key Contributors: Siddharth Suri, Scott
Counts, Mia Bruch
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Bishop, B. (2009). The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart. Mariner Books.
Cairncross, F. (2001). The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Is Changing our Lives. Harvard Business Review Press.
Garreau, J. (1991). Edge City: Life on the New Frontier. Doubleday.
Greenstein, S., et al. (2018). How Geography Shapes—and Is Shaped by—the Internet. The New Oxford Handbook of Economic Geography. G.L. Clark, M.P. Feldman, M.S. Gertler, and D. Wójcik, eds. 75
Ramani, A. & Bloom, N. (2021). The Donut Effect of Covid-19 on Cities. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 28876.
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Atkinson, R. D., et al. (2019). The case for growth centers: How to spread tech innovation across America. Brookings.
Microsoft Study: Chancellor, S. & Counts, S. (2018). Measuring Employment Demand Using Internet Search Data. ACM Conference on Human Factors
in Computing Systems (CHI).
Microsoft Study: Counts, S. (2022). Pandemic Job Search Trends. [Internal]
Microsoft Study: Kimbrough, K. (2022). The Great Reshuffle in 2022: Top Trends to Watch. LinkedIn. Counts (2022) 76
National Science Foundation (2022). Meet TIP – Technology, Innovation and Partnerships.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Counts (2022)
Microsoft Study: Anders, G. (2021). “America's new remote-work havens: 20 cities that pursue faraway jobs. LinkedIn.
Microsoft Study: Chancellor, S., & Counts, S. (2018). Measuring Employment Demand Using Internet Search Data. ACM Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI). 77
Microsoft Study: Counts, S. (2022). Pandemic Job Search Trends. [Internal]
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Anderson, M. (2018). About a quarter of rural Americans say access to high-speed internet is a major problem. Pew Research Center.
Bloom, N. (2020). Stanford research provides a snapshot of a new working-from-home economy. Stanford News.
Pew Research Center (2021). Internet/Broadband Fact Sheet. 78
Microsoft (2022). Airband Initiative.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Lund, S., et al. (2020). What’s next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries. McKinsey Global Institute.
Emergence (2018). The Rise of the Deskless Workforce. 79
Dingel, J., & Neiman, B. (2020). How Many Jobs Can Be Done at Home? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 26948.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
There was a shift in the types of gig jobs done during the pandemic
The gig economy as a whole did not grow during the pandemic, but there was an increase in the
number of people doing in-person gig work as opposed to online work.
• The gig economy showed only moderate, if any, growth during the pandemic. In the 12
months prior to August 2021, 9% of U.S. adults reported earning money in the gig economy
compared to 8% in the year before that and 8% in 2016. These numbers are within the margin
of error of each other (Pew 2021, 2016). So, the substantial job losses early in the pandemic
(April 2020) did not result in a large or sustained shift in the overall population of gig workers.
• By August 2021 unemployment had dropped to a low of 5.2% (BLS 2022), so it is
possible that people temporarily found gig work in April 2020 but returned to non-gig
work prior August 2020. They would not have been counted in the 9%.
• For example, Upwork had two spikes in worker registrations during the pandemic but
did not see sustained growth (Ozimek 2022).
• In 2021 and in 2016, 58% and 60%, respectively, of gig workers said the money they earn
was “essential” or “important” (Pew 2016, 2021).
• Between 2016 and 2021 there was a dramatic shift in the type of gig work done. In 2016 the Smith (2016
Anderson et al (2021)
most common types of gig work were online tasks like surveys, data entry, etc. In contrast, in
2021 the most common types of gig work were in-person tasks like deliveries, shopping,
household tasks, and ride-hailing (Pew 2016, 2021).
Anderson, M. et al. (2021) The State of Gig Work in 2021. Pew Research Center.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, (2021). Unemployment rate drops to 5.2 percent in August 2021. The Economics Daily,
Ozimek, A. (2022). Work Marketplaces and Dynamism. Upwork. 80
Smith, A. (2016). Gig Work, Online Selling and Home Sharing. Pew Research Center.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
The traditional location-based workplace was better for some than others
People of color and women are more likely to prefer remote work.
• Studies have shown that compared to white men, people of color and women prefer remote work slightly more
(Subramanian et al. 2021).
o In the United States, 86% of Hispanic and 81% of Black knowledge workers said they prefer remote work
preferred hybrid or remote work, compared to 75% of white knowledge workers.
o Globally, 50% of working mothers said they preferred to work remotely, compared to 43% of fathers.
• In a LinkedIn study, women (28%) reported flexibility in location as a driver for changing employer more often
than men (20%) (Anders 2022).
• For these demographics, some have a sense that remote work means an opportunity to be judged more based
on their contribution, rather than their ability to “fit in” to prevailing office culture.
o Since May 2021, a sense of belonging at work increased for 24% of Black knowledge workers, compared
to 5% of white knowledge workers (Future Forum 2022).
• The emphasis hiring managers place on perceived "culture fit" can mean that some demographics are more
likely to be excluded from consideration because they don't match the existing model of an employee. Remote
work could mitigate this type of exclusion (Goldberg 2022).
Goldberg, E. (2022). A two-year, 50-million-person experiment in changing how we work. The New York Times.
Subramanian, S., & Gilbert, T. (2021). A new era of workplace inclusion: moving from retrofit to design. Future Forum.
Microsoft Study: Anders, G. (2022). What job hunters really want: 43% of women seek to cut workplace stress. LinkedIn Blog. 81
Future Forum Pulse (2022). futureforum.com/pulse-survey.
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Proximity bias could disproportionately impact people of color and working parents
Organizations need to actively combat the proximity biases observed pre-pandemic or they will
disadvantage certain groups of workers.
• In Bloom et al.’s (2015) study of a call center, conditional on performance,
working from home caused 50% lower rates of promotion.
• Wider acceptance and adoption of remote work could potentially
mitigate this presence bias going forward.
• For the reasons discussed on the previous slide, Hispanic, Asian and Black
knowledge workers in the US may spend less time in the office under
hybrid work than white knowledge workers.
• 75% of working parents prefer work remotely or hybrid, compared to
63% of non-parents (Future Forum 2022).
• In the US, white knowledge workers are spending the most time in the
office by a significant margin – as great as 17 percentage points (Future
Forum 2022).
• Forty-one percent of executives cite the potential for inequities to
develop between remote and in-office employees as their top concern Future Forum (2022)
(Future Forum 2022).
Bloom, N., et al. (2015). Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 130(1), 165–218. 82
Future Forum (2022). Leveling the playing field in the hybrid workplace. Future Forum Pulse.
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Organizations are struggling to keep roles filled amid the Great Reshuffle
Both quit rates and hires have increased, though it varies by industry.
Seasonally-adjusted nonfarm openings,
• In the US, a record 47.8 million people quit their jobs in 2021. However, hires increased as well, with 75.6 million Thousands hires, and separations
individuals finding new work (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2022). 18,000
16,000
• Globally, the Microsoft WTI (2022) external survey found that the top five reasons employees quit were: 14,000
personal wellbeing or mental health (24%), work-life balance (24%), risk of getting COVID-19 (21%), lack of 12,000
confidence in senior management/leadership (21%), and lack of flexible work hours or location (21%). 10,000
8,000
• Somewhat surprisingly, “not receiving promotions or raises I deserved” was number seven on the list at 19%. 6,000
4,000
• However, in a Pew Research Center survey of Americans, the top 3 reasons for quitting a job in 2021 were low 2,000
pay (63%), no opportunities for advancement (63%) and feeling disrespected at work (57%) (Parker 2022). 0
(Differences could be due to the question phrasing or study recruitment, not necessarily a global / US
Aug-19
Mar-19
Jul-17
Oct-18
Jun-20
Jun-15
Jan-15
Apr-16
Dec-17
Jan-20
Apr-21
Sep-16
Feb-17
Sep-21
Feb-22
Nov-15
Nov-20
May-18
difference.)
• Trends and reasons vary by industry: Job openings Hires Separations
• Industry data show marked employment decreases in the Food, Hospitality, Healthcare, and Education Graph based on data from BLS (2022b)
sectors; increases in Transportation and Science sectors (BLS data, see bottom figure).
• In the leisure industry the steep increase in quits was driven by people going directly to a new job, but in
manufacturing they were not (Birinci & Amburgey 2022).
• A study of human service workers proposed high levels of emotional labor as a mechanism (Costakis et
al. 2021). Research on nurses (a group who might experience similar emotional burnout) found lack of
autonomy over schedules to be key (Bergman et al. 2021).
Bergman, A., et al. (2021). The Role of Schedule Volatility in Home Health Nursing Turnover. Medical Care Research and Review: 10775587211034310.
Birinci, S., & Amburgey, A. (2022). The Great Resignation vs. The Great Reallocation: Industry-Level Evidence. Economic Synopses 2022, 4.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2022a). Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - 2022 M01 Results.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (2022b) Current Employment and Earnings data.
Costakis, H. R., et al. (2021). Implications of Emotional Labor on Work Outcomes of Service Workers in Not-for-Profit Human Service Organizations. Human Service
Organizations: Management, Leadership & Governance 45(1), 29–48.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022. 83
Parker, K., & Horowitz, J. (2022). Majority of workers who quit a job in 2021 cite low pay, no opportunities for advancement, feeling disrespected. Pew Research. Graph based on data from BLS (2022b)
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
• In addition to energy poverty and broadband access, many more Deliver its products/services in
corporate goals.
Advocate for and make changes to
support social justice issues 11% 6% 44% 33% 6%
• More than 300 companies have joined the Amazon Climate Encourage community volunteer
(Amazon 2022).
Regularly contribute
(money/products/services) to
charitable causes 10% 5% 54% 27% 4%
• 38% of 8,500 companies in the MSCI All Country World
Index are aligned with the United Nations Sustainable
Glint (2021)
Development Goals (World Economic Forum 2021).
Haslag, P. H., & Weagley, D. (2022). From L.A. to Boise: How Migration Has Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Social Science Research Network, 3808326.
Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2018). Urbanization. Our World in Data.
Emergence (2018). The Rise of the Deskless Workforce. 85
Schacter, J. (2001). Why People Move: Exploring the March 2000 Current Population Survey. U.S. Census Bureau.
Forecast
Looking ahead: Challenges and
opportunities
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Barrero, J. M., et al. (2021). Why Working from Home Will Stick. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 28731.
Bradsher, K. (2022). Surge of Omicron infections prompts lockdowns in China. The New York Times. 87
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022.
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90
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Remote and hybrid work increase the opportunity for AI to transform work
The pandemic significantly accelerated the digital transformation already underway at many companies,
and work-related data is now generated at an unprecedented pace. Combined with significant advances
in AI, this will drive a significant change in how people work.
• The rapid digital transformation of the past two years across a variety of industries enabled the capture
of training data at scale for a broad range of work. For example, the monthly use of meeting recordings
in Microsoft Stream more than doubled from March 2020 to February 2022 (Microsoft WTI 2022).
• AI is good at learning and scaling patterns, meaning for these activities people can instead focus on
doing things in new ways and generating novel ideas. For example, someone might:
• Write a document by merely listing the ideas it should include. The details can be fleshed out
automatically, much like developers use Copilot to flesh out ideas through code (Github 2022).
• Attend a meeting asynchronously by, before the meeting, asking the system to capture ideas on Github Co-pilot (2022)
their behalf to share at the meeting, and, after the meeting, hearing the responses people had to
those ideas in the meeting summarized by a large-scale language model (Tang 2012).
• Learn a new skill from an AI-based coach that increase their cognitive abilities and improves their
performance. E.g., Speaker Coach helps improve people's presentation skills (Microsoft 2021).
• Uncertainty will be become a fundamental part of productivity systems, as correcting mistakes made by
AI and training AI models becomes an increasingly important part of how people get things done.
• Because AI systems will not just support work but change people’s work practices, they will need to be
designed in a way that is privacy-preserving, responsible, and equitable.
Scott, K. (2022). I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means: Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Work & Scale. Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences.
Speaker Coach (2021)
Github (2022). GitHub Copilot: Your AI pair programmer.
Microsoft (2021) Rehearse your slide show with Speaker Coach.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft WTI (2022). Great Expectations: Making Hybrid Work Work. Microsoft WorkLab: Work Trend Index 2022.
Microsoft Study: Samrose, S., et al. (2021). Meeting Coach: An intelligent dashboard for supporting effective and inclusive meetings. CHI 2021. 91
Microsoft Study: Tang, J., et al. (2012). Time Travel Proxy: Using Lightweight Video Recordings to Create Asynchronous, Interactive Meetings. CHI 2012.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
External Forecasts
To provide a broad range of perspectives, we asked leading external experts from relevant research
fields to forecast what the future of work might hold based on recent findings in their areas of
expertise. Forecasting the future of work is a very difficult task, and we are grateful to the below
experts for accepting this challenge to help us understand the range of possible outcomes:
The external forecasts reflect the contributors’ views of future scenarios, not those of Microsoft.
They are not legal analyses and are only a discussion of possible trends.
EXTERNAL FORECAST 92
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EXTERNAL FORECAST 93
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
EXTERNAL FORECAST 94
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Bernstein, E., et al. (Expected Spring 2024). Hire Your Next Job (Working Title). New York: Harper Collins.
EXTERNAL FORECAST 95
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Zhou, S., Valentine, M.,, & Bernstein, M. S. (2018). "In search of the dream team: Temporally constrained multi-armed bandits for identifying effective team structures." Proceedings of the 2018 CHI Conference on Human
Factors in Computing Systems.
EXTERNAL FORECAST 96
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Bloom, N., et al. (2021), COVID shifted patent applications toward technologies that support working from home. American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings
Barrero, J., et al. (2021), Why working from home will stick. National Bureau of Economic Research working paper series, 28731.
EXTERNAL FORECAST 97
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Dillahunt, T. R., et al. (2022). The Village: Infrastructuring Community-Based Mentoring to Support Adults Experiencing Poverty. CHI 22 (to appear).
Dillahunt, T. R., et al. (2021). Implications for Supporting Marginalized Job Seekers: Lessons from Employment Centers. PACM 2021.
Hui, J., et al. (2020). Community Collectives: Low-tech Social Support for Digitally-Engaged Entrepreneurship. 2020. PACM 2020.
Lu, A., et al. (2022). Emotional Labor in Everyday Resilience: Class-Based Experiences of Navigating Unemployment Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in the U.S. (minor revision to PACM 2022).
Ogbonnaya-Ogburu, I. F., et al. (2019). Towards an Effective Digital Literacy Intervention to Assist Returning Citizens with Job Search. 2019. CHI 2019.
Putnam, M., et al. (2022). New Directions in Employment and Training Research and Evaluation: Digital Employment Tools Created with Approaches from Human-Computer Interaction.
EXTERNAL FORECAST 98
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Researchers have found that the most loathed aspect of working in the office is not 70%
compensation to work from home. The work suggests that about a quarter of 30%
employees (27%) would be willing to take a salary reduction to work from home. 20%
10%
• This timely research illustrates the amount that workers are willing to give up is not 0%
trivial, with employees being willing to forgo over $4,300 per annum to be able to
Being able to work Working for four days Working for four days
from home when you a week while being a week while being
work from home full time. As costs rise, employers may be eager? Last year, Google need to paid a full-time salary, paid a full-time salary,
EXTERNAL FORECAST 99
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Blanchard, A. L., & McBride, A. (2020). Putting the “group” in group meetings: Entitativity in face-to-face and online meetings. In A. L. Meinecke, J. A. Allen, & N. Lehmann-Willenbrock (Eds.), Managing meetings in organizations
(pp. 71-92). Emerald.
Freiwald, J. P., et al. (2021). Effects of avatar appearance and locomotion on co-presence in virtual reality collaborations. In Mensch und Computer 2021 (pp. 393-401).
Lehmann-Willenbrock, et al. (2018). The critical importance of meetings to leader and organizational success: Evidence-based insights and implications for key stakeholders. Organizational Dynamics, 47(1), 32-36.
Steinicke, F., et al. (2020). A first pilot study to compare virtual group meetings using video conferences and (immersive) virtual reality. SUI '20: Symposium on Spatial User Interaction, October 2020, Article No.: 19.
Cross, R., et al. (2018). “Collaboration Without Burnout,” Harvard Business Review 96(4), 134-137.
Leonardi, P., & Contractor, N. (2018). Better people analytics. Harvard Business Review, 96(6), 70-81.
Leonardi, P., & Neeley, T. (2022). The Digital Mindset: What It Really Takes to Thrive in the Age of Data, Algorithms, and AI. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press.
Borghouts, J., et al. (2022). Motivated to Work or Working to Stay Motivated: A Diary and Interview Study on Working From Home. Proc. of the ACM Human-Computer Interaction., CSCW, 25 pages.
Breideband, T., et al. (2022). Home-life and work rhythm diversity in distributed teamwork: A study with information workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Proc. of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction, CSCW, 23 pages.
Chuang, S., & Graham, C. (2018). Embracing the sobering reality of technological influences on jobs, employment and human resource development. European Journal of Training and Development, 42(7/8), 400-416.
Dingel, J., & Neiman, B. (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104235.
Gezici, A., & Ozay, O. (2020). How Race and Gender Shape COVID-19 Unemployment Probability. Social Science Research Network, 3675022.
Golden, T. (2007). Co-workers who telework and the impact on those in the office: Understanding the implications of virtual work for co-worker satisfaction and turnover intentions. Human Relations, 60(11), 1641-1667.
Kelly, M., & Shoemaker, N. (2021). Telecommuting: Creating a Resentful On-Site Workforce. Journal of Organizational Psychology, 21(1), 11-15.
Gergle, D., et al. (2013). Using Visual Information for Grounding and Awareness in Collaborative Tasks. Human-Computer Interaction, 28(1), 1-39.
Microsoft Study: Microsoft Design (2016). Inclusive Toolkit. Microsoft Design – Inclusive Toolkit
Microsoft Study: Tang, J. (2021). Understanding the Telework Experience of People with Disabilities. Proc. ACM Hum.-Comput. Interact. 5, CSCW1, Article 30, 27 pages. (2016)
Glossary
API: Application Programming Interface – a programming interface that allows two computers or pieces of software to communicate.
Asynchronous/Async communication: Communication between members of a team that does not happen " in real time."
Augmented Reality (AR): Technology that supplements reality, by integrating 3-D objects into the user's real environment (Azuma 1997).
Avatar: An icon or image meant to represent a particular person within a computer-mediated environment.
Chat: In this report, this refers to messaging via Microsoft Teams or similar applications where people type text-based messages to each other.
“Parallel chat” refers to the chat stream that appears during meetings.
Cognitive Science: The study of thought, learning, and mental organization.
Collegiality: Companionship and cooperation between colleagues.
Deepfakes: AI-generated, realistic-appearing representations of people, created using image, video, and/or voice samples (Westerland 2019).
Design fiction: Explorations of speculative scenarios that are expressed in design artifacts such as images and objects.
Gig work: Contract work that is short-term, without benefits, and often mediated through a platform, like Uber or Upwork (Bajwa et al. 2018).
Hybrid Work: Refers to a mix of co-located (in office or facility) and non-co-located work or workers, see What is hybrid?
Inclusion: Fostering a welcoming, empowering environment for all employees. (Microsoft 2021).
Azuma, R. T. (1997). A Survey of Augmented Reality. Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments, 6(4), 355–385.
Westerlund, M. (2019). The Emergence of Deepfake Technology: A Review. Technology Innovation Management Review, 9(11), 40–53.
Bajwa, U., et al. (2018). The health of workers in the global gig economy. Globalization and Health, 14(1), 124. 107
Microsoft Study: Microsoft. (2021). Diversity & Inclusion Report. Microsoft.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Glossary
IoT: Internet of Things – refers to a web of everyday objects, connected by the Internet.
Onboarding: The process of integrating new hires into the organization.
Productivity: A measure of output divided by units of input (such as hours worked, number of workers or cost of labor). Output is hard to measure
in the case of intangible work products. Certain types of inputs (e.g., hours worked) may also be difficult to measure
Prosody: Patterns of voice stress and intonation.
Remote Work: Work that does not require an employee to commute to an office or workplace.
Social Capital: A resource created by the makeup and qualities of a social network, which can be utilized by both individual actors, like employees,
as well as collective ones, like a company (Adler & Kwon 2009).
Socio-tecture: A heavy reliance on social networks in which the relational is prioritized over the transactional, and people are viewed as the primary
source of knowledge (Awori et al. 2022).
Ties (Strong and Weak): A connection between two actors in a social network, the strength of which is determined by the amount of time, intimacy,
emotional intensity, and reciprocity of the relationship (Granovetter 1973).
Transitional Interfaces: Interfaces that enable seamless integration of systems along the reality to virtual reality continuum, depending on
users’ tasks and needs (Jetter et al. 2021).
Virtual Reality (VR): Technology that completely immerses the user in a virtual environment (Azuma 1997).
Workload: The work that an individual employee is responsible for at any given time.
Adler, P. S., & Kwon, S.-W. (2009). Social Capital: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Knowledge and Social Capital: Foundations and Applications, Eric L. Lesser, ed., Butterworth-Heinemann, Boston, MA, pp. 89-115.
Granovetter, M.S., (1973). The strength of weak ties. American journal of sociology, 78(6), 1360-1380.
Jetter, H.-C., et al. (2021). Transitional Interfaces in Mixed and Cross-Reality: A new frontier? Interactive Surfaces and Spaces, 46–49. 108
Azuma, R. T. (1997). A Survey of Augmented Reality. Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments, 6(4), 355–385.
Introduction Individuals Teams Organizations Society Forecast #newfutureofwork
Limitations
This report draws on numerous different studies using diverse methodologies to identify phenomena
across a wide range of employees and organizations. However, the report does have its limitations: We
draw primarily on English language research, often focused on the United States. We also focus mostly
on information workers. The future of work undoubtedly includes a wider range of workers than those
addressed in depth here, including frontline workers, freelancers, contractors, gig workers, creative
workers, agricultural workers, and more. We hope that this report provides useful insights or
counterpoints to those seeking to understand these and other dimensions of the future of work.
Ultimately, the future of work is yet to be determined. Technologies, practices, and norms are rapidly
evolving. We hope this report helps nurture a better future of work, one in which all kinds of workers in
all places can thrive.
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Acknowledgements
• The format was inspired by the State of AI (http://stateof.ai) report by Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Thanks especially to
Nathan Benaich for taking the time to walk us through the advantages and disadvantages of the slide deck as a genre for
research synthesis.
• Thank you to our guest forecasters Jeremy Bailenson (Stanford University), Nathan Benaich (Air Street Capital), Ethan Bernstein
(Harvard Business School), Michael Bernstein (Stanford University), Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University), Tawanna Dillahunt
(University of Michigan), Benjamin Laker (Henley Business School) Nale Lehmann-Willenbrock (Universität Hamburg), Paul
Leonardi (Northwestern University), Gloria Mark (University of California, Irvine), Alexandra Samuel (alexandrasamuel.com),
Jane Shakespeare-Finch (Queensland University of Technology), Willem Standaert (University of Liège), and Melissa Valentine
(Stanford University).
• Thank you to our external reviewers Ethan Bernstein (Harvard Business School), Gloria Mark (University of California, Irvine),
Judith Olson (University of California, Irvine), Alexandra Samuel (alexandrasamuel.com), Jane Shakespeare-Finch (Queensland
University of Technology), and Willem Standaert (University of Liège).
• Thank you also to Ethan Mollick (Wharton) for capturing so much relevant research in his Twitter feed, as well as Tammy D.
Allen (University of South Florida), Timothy D. Golden (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute), and Kristen M. Shockley (University of
Georgia) for synthesizing so much of the pre-pandemic social science research on remote and hybrid work in their 2015 survey
paper “How Effective Is Telecommuting? Assessing the Status of Our Scientific Findings”.
• This report was a company-wide effort. In addition to our authors and contributors already listed, we are grateful for the help
and support we received from the broader Microsoft team. This was truly a One Microsoft effort!
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