FIGURE 1.

1 Evolution of debt
Figure 1.1.A. Global debt
Figure 1.1.B. Debt in EMDEs
Figure 1.1.C. Debt in LICs
Figure 1.1.D. Debt in advanced economies
FIGURE 1.2 Post-crisis debt accumulation, growth, and interest rates
Figure 1.2.A. Growth and debt in EMDEs
Figure 1.2.B. Long-term interest rates
FIGURE 1.3 Debt in EMDEs
Figure 1.3.A. Government debt
Figure 1.3.B. Private Debt
Figure 1.3.C. Change in total debt
Figure 1.3.D. Rate of change in total debt
FIGURE 1.4 Debt and financial crises
Figure 1.4.A. Share of EMDEs in rapid debt accumulation episodes
Figure 1.4.B. Crises during debt waves
Figure 1.4.C. Duration of rapid debt accumulation episodes in EMDEs
Figure 1.4.D. Change in debt during rapid accumulation episodes in EMDEs
Figure 1.4.E. Outcomes of rapid government debt accumulation episodes after eight years
Figure 1.4.F. Outcomes of rapid debt private accumulation episodes after eight years
FIGURE 1.5 Prospects and vulnerabilities in EMDEs
Figure 1.5.A. Consensus long-term growth forecasts
Figure 1.5.B. Current account and fiscal balances
Figure 1.5.C. Current levels of government debt versus previous rapid debt accumulation e
Figure 1.5.D. Current levels of private debt versus previous rapid debt accumulation episod
FIGURE 1.6 Potential benefits and costs of debt
Figure 1.6.A. Investment needs in EMDEs
Figure 1.6.B. Investment needs, by EMDE region
Figure 1.6.C. Fiscal multipliers after 2 years
Figure 1.6.D. Government debt and interest payments inEMDEs, 2018
Figure 1.7 The first wave of debt
1.7.A. LAC: Growth
1.7.B. LAC: External debt
1.7.C. LIC: External debt
1.7.D. Cumulative debt relief in LIC
Figure 1.8 The second and third waves of deb
1.8.A. EAP: Growth in external debt
1.8.B. EAP: Sectoral distribution of external debt
1.8.C. ECA: External debt
1.8.D. Cross-border lending to EMDE
Figure 1.9 The fourth wave of debt
1.9.A. Countries with increase in government debt, by region
1.9.B. Countries with increase in private debt, by region
1.9.C. Average maturity and non-concessional debt in EMDEs
1.9.D. Nonresident share of government debt, foreign currency share of corporate debt
Figure 1.10 Debt and financial crises
1.10.A. Government debt accumulation episodes associated with crises
1.10.B. Private debt accumulation episodes associated with crises
1.10.C. Debt during government debt accumulation episodes
1.10.D. Output and per capita output during government debt accumulation episodes
Figure 1.11 Risks and policy implications
1.11.A. EMDEs with fiscal rules
1.11.B. EMDEs with inflation targeting
1.11.C. EMDEs with flexible exchange rates
1.11.D. EMDE central bank transparency
1.11.E. Sovereign credit ratings
1.11.F. Nonfinancial corporate debt
ation episodes
episodes
Figure 1.1.A. Global debt

Percent of GDP
250 Total Government P

200

150

100

50

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Aggregates calculated using current U.S. dollar GDP weight and shown as a 3-year m
debt waves in 1970, 1990, 2002, and 2010.

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nt Private

own as a 3-year moving average. Gray vertical lines represent start of

 Total Government Private Wave
1970 114.6 38.1 76.6 1
1971 115.9 38.1 77.8
1972 117.7 37.9 79.8
1973 119.3 36.6 82.7
1974 118.3 34.7 83.6
1975 118.7 34.0 84.8
1976 120.0 34.6 85.3
1977 123.7 36.2 87.6
1978 126.1 37.1 89.0
1979 128.4 37.8 90.6
1980 128.8 38.6 90.2
1981 128.5 39.6 88.8
1982 130.3 42.1 88.2
1983 135.5 45.2 90.2
1984 141.6 48.3 93.3
1985 147.8 51.1 96.6
1986 155.7 54.3 101.4
1987 164.1 57.5 106.7
1988 171.0 59.0 112.0
1989 174.3 58.4 115.9
1990 174.6 56.9 117.7 1
1991 175.2 56.6 118.6
1992 177.4 58.4 119.1
1993 182.5 61.4 121.1
1994 186.7 64.4 122.3
1995 188.7 66.1 122.6
1996 187.3 66.6 120.7
1997 185.2 66.1 119.1
1998 184.1 66.0 118.2
1999 186.7 66.5 120.2
2000 189.1 66.7 122.5
2001 191.0 66.3 124.8
2002 192.2 65.9 126.3 1
2003 194.8 66.7 128.1
2004 197.7 68.4 129.3
2005 198.3 68.7 129.6
2006 197.6 67.3 130.3
2007 196.2 64.3 131.9
2008 196.6 63.0 133.5
2009 203.1 66.6 136.6
2010 208.7 71.9 136.8 1
2011 212.7 76.5 136.1
2012 211.9 78.2 133.7
2013 212.5 78.7 133.8
2014 214.5 79.0 135.5
2015 217.3 79.0 138.3
2016 222.0 80.5 141.5
2017 225.4 81.5 143.9
2018 227.0 82.2 144.8
Figure 1.1.B Debt in EMDEs

Percent of GDP
180 Total Govern

120

60

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Aggregates calculated using current U.S. dollar GDP weight and shown as a 3-year m
debt waves in 1970, 1990, 2002, and 2010. Dashed lines refer to EMDEs excluding China.

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 Government Private

own as a 3-year moving average. Gray vertical lines represent start of

excluding China.
 Total Government Private Total, excl. China
1970 46.9 26.5 20.4 46.9
1971 46.8 26.4 20.3 46.8
1972 47.7 27.3 20.3 47.7
1973 47.3 26.7 20.6 47.3
1974 46.5 25.3 21.1 46.5
1975 45.8 24.5 21.3 45.8
1976 47.5 25.9 21.6 47.5
1977 50.9 28.5 22.4 50.9
1978 54.7 30.4 24.4 54.7
1979 57.6 31.4 26.2 57.6
1980 60.6 32.1 28.5 59.5
1981 63.5 33.4 30.1 61.4
1982 68.2 36.7 31.5 64.9
1983 72.9 40.8 32.2 69.5
1984 77.3 44.2 33.0 73.4
1985 81.2 47.0 34.1 76.7
1986 87.1 51.5 35.7 81.9
1987 95.4 58.6 36.7 89.5
1988 99.6 62.3 37.3 93.3
1989 99.3 61.5 37.8 92.7
1990 94.6 56.2 38.4 88.3
1991 93.3 53.5 39.8 87.3
1992 97.1 54.7 42.4 91.6
1993 103.0 56.0 46.9 97.4
1994 105.2 56.3 48.8 100.0
1995 99.6 51.8 47.8 95.7
1996 92.1 47.2 44.9 89.1
1997 88.3 43.3 45.0 85.7
1998 90.3 43.8 46.5 86.9
1999 95.0 46.4 48.6 90.2
2000 97.6 48.2 49.4 91.2
2001 98.4 48.7 49.7 91.0
2002 100.4 49.2 51.2 91.9
2003 103.5 50.0 53.4 93.3
2004 105.0 49.6 55.4 93.1
2005 101.6 46.3 55.2 89.1
2006 97.5 42.1 55.4 85.1
2007 95.4 38.3 57.0 82.7
2008 95.7 35.6 60.1 82.4
2009 102.5 36.2 66.3 85.5
2010 108.6 36.9 71.7 87.7
2011 114.6 38.0 76.6 89.4
2012 116.9 37.4 79.5 88.8
2013 122.5 37.6 84.9 90.1
2014 131.2 38.7 92.5 92.8
2015 142.4 40.9 101.5 98.0
2016 152.9 43.8 109.1 103.1
2017 160.7 46.5 114.2 106.5
2018 165.1 48.6 116.6 107.3
Government, excl. China Private, excl. China Wave
26.5 20.4 1
26.4 20.3
27.3 20.3
26.7 20.6
25.3 21.1
24.5 21.3
25.9 21.6
28.5 22.4
30.4 24.4
31.4 26.2
32.1 27.4
33.4 28.0
36.7 28.2
40.8 28.7
44.2 29.2
47.0 29.7
51.5 30.4
58.6 30.9
62.3 31.0
61.5 31.2
56.2 32.1 1
53.5 33.8
54.7 36.9
56.0 41.4
56.3 43.7
52.9 42.8
49.5 39.7
46.8 38.9
47.8 39.1
51.2 39.0
53.5 37.7
54.3 36.7
55.1 36.7 1
56.3 37.0
55.9 37.2
51.6 37.5
46.3 38.8
41.3 41.3
38.0 44.4
38.0 47.5
38.6 49.1 1
39.5 49.8
38.8 50.0
38.7 51.4
39.4 53.4
41.8 56.2
45.0 58.1
48.0 58.5
49.4 57.9
Figure 1.1.C. Debt in LICs

Percent of GDP
150
Total Governmen
120

90

60

30

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Aggregates calculated using current U.S. dollar GDP weight and shown as a 3-year m
debt waves in 1970, 1990, 2002, and 2010.

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 1970
1971
1972
1973
vernment Private 1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
own as a 3-year moving average. Gray vertical lines represent start of 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Total Government Private Wave
39.3 32.1 7.3 1
37.7 30.5 7.2
38.6 31.4 7.2
40.2 32.8 7.4
45.3 37.3 8.0
49.4 40.9 8.5
54.8 46.1 8.8
55.7 47.3 8.4
56.3 47.6 8.7
53.0 43.7 9.3
52.3 42.5 9.8
53.7 44.3 9.4
58.2 49.3 8.8
72.4 63.9 8.6
80.7 72.2 8.5
91.6 83.3 8.3
92.1 83.8 8.2
100.5 92.5 8.0
103.2 95.5 7.8
109.4 101.8 7.7
114.5 106.8 7.7 1
119.0 111.2 7.8
120.2 112.5 7.7
117.6 109.8 7.7
119.8 112.2 7.6
122.9 115.1 7.9
123.6 115.6 8.0
118.6 110.0 8.6
120.9 111.9 9.1
122.0 112.4 9.5
122.1 112.8 9.3
113.7 104.6 9.1
110.2 101.5 8.7 1
107.8 98.6 9.1
103.5 94.0 9.5
93.5 83.2 10.3
79.6 68.7 10.9
65.3 53.6 11.7
56.2 43.5 12.7
53.4 39.5 13.9
51.5 36.5 15.1 1
49.3 34.3 14.9
46.7 32.1 14.6
46.7 32.5 14.2
48.7 33.8 14.9
53.8 37.4 16.4
59.3 41.3 18.0
63.7 44.5 19.3
65.8 45.7 20.1
Figure 1.1.D. Debt in advanced economies

Percent of GDP
300
Total Governmen

200

100

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Aggregates calculated using current U.S. dollar GDP weight and shown as a 3-year m
debt waves in 1970, 1990, 2002, and 2010.

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 1970
1971
1972
1973
vernment Private 1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
own as a 3-year moving average. Gray vertical lines represent start of 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
 Total Government Private Wave
125.0 40.4 84.6 1
126.3 40.4 85.9
127.9 40.0 87.9
129.7 38.6 91.1
129.5 36.7 92.8
130.9 36.1 94.8
132.5 36.7 95.8
135.7 37.9 97.8
137.3 38.6 98.8
139.3 39.2 100.2
141.4 40.1 101.3
143.6 41.1 102.4
147.3 43.4 103.9
152.2 46.3 105.9
157.7 49.3 108.4
163.4 52.1 111.4
170.2 54.9 115.4
177.4 57.3 120.1
183.5 58.4 125.1
187.4 57.8 129.5
189.6 57.0 132.6 1
191.1 57.2 134.0
193.4 59.0 134.3
198.2 62.3 135.9
203.4 65.8 137.6
208.3 69.1 139.2
209.6 71.1 138.5
209.8 71.9 137.9
209.1 71.8 137.3
210.9 71.8 139.1
212.9 71.5 141.5
215.2 70.8 144.3
216.5 70.3 146.2 1
218.7 71.1 147.6
222.2 73.4 148.8
225.9 75.1 150.7
229.3 75.3 154.0
232.1 73.5 158.6
237.2 74.1 163.1
247.2 80.0 167.3
256.8 88.8 168.0 1
263.8 96.7 167.1
266.5 101.6 164.9
267.7 103.9 163.8
267.5 104.6 163.0
266.0 103.8 162.2
266.7 104.2 162.4
267.2 104.2 162.9
266.9 104.1 162.9
Figure 1.2.A. Growth and debt in EMDEs
Percent of GDP
180
Debt Growth (RHS)
160

140

120

100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Total debt (in percent of GDP) and real GDP growth (GDP-weighted at 2010 prices a

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 Percent
8
h (RHS) 7
6
5
4
3
2
014 2015 2016 2017 2018

d at 2010 prices and exchange rates).

 Debt Growth (RHS)
2010 114 7.4
2011 115.4 6.4
2012 121.4 4.8
2013 130.8 5.0
2014 141.3 4.5
2015 155.1 3.9
2016 162.2 4.1
2017 164.7 4.6
2018 168.5 4.4
Figure 1.2.B. Long-term interest rates
Percent
15 Advanced economie

10

Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.

Note: Average long-term nominal government bond yields (with 10-year maturities) comput
weights, based on 36 advanced economies and 84 EMDEs.

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 Year
2000
2001
2002
onomies EMDEs 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

maturities) computed with current U.S. dollar GDP

Advanced economies EMDEs
5.1 13.5
4.5 11.9
4.3 11.1
3.7 9.2
3.9 8.9
3.6 8.1
4.1 7.5
4.2 7.4
3.8 8.1
3.3 7.7
3.1 7.1
3.1 7.3
2.3 6.6
2.4 6.5
2.2 7
1.6 6.7
1.2 6.2
1.6 6
1.9 6.3
Figure 1.3.A. Government debt

Percent of GDP
80 EAP ECA

60

40

20

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Averages computed with current U.S. dollar GDP as weight and shown as a 3-year m
EAP refer to EAP excluding China. Lines for ECA start in 1995 due to smaller sample size p
gray are for years 1970, 1990, 2002, and 2010.

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 1970
1971

ECA LAC
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
own as a 3-year moving average. Dashed lines for 1999
aller sample size prior to that year. Vertical lines in 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
EAP EAP excl. China ECA LAC SSA Wave
23.8 14.3 25.6 1
25.0 15.2 24.6
27.3 16.8 24.6
28.0 16.7 25.5
26.4 16.6 26.8
23.0 18.7 27.9
21.6 22.4 29.2
22.1 25.8 30.7
24.4 26.2 32.0
25.3 25.4 31.8
25.3 25.4 31.1
24.3 30.3 27.9
26.8 37.5 26.6
31.5 43.9 29.7
35.2 49.1 34.2
38.3 52.7 39.2
43.9 58.7 42.3
51.8 70.2 49.8
55.6 73.7 54.7
53.7 71.1 58.7
48.7 59.6 60.1 1
45.9 54.7 62.9
44.1 55.2 65.6
42.8 51.9 53.0 68.1
40.2 60.5 49.5 72.1
35.1 37.2 57.7 43.3 71.7
29.6 33.2 52.8 40.1 67.6
26.1 32.7 47.8 39.0 59.8
27.2 39.4 48.4 40.9 56.1
30.5 50.6 52.1 43.9 60.3
33.5 59.9 52.8 46.6 65.5
34.8 61.8 52.2 47.9 69.4
34.7 59.7 48.3 51.5 65.7 1
34.4 56.4 45.9 55.6 60.8
34.0 53.4 41.7 57.8 55.0
33.0 50.1 36.7 54.9 48.6
31.4 45.9 31.3 51.0 40.6
30.8 41.5 26.7 48.1 33.1
30.0 38.2 23.8 46.6 28.3
31.9 37.4 24.5 47.2 28.1
32.9 37.0 26.3 47.8 28.9 1
34.5 36.6 27.7 48.5 30.6
34.3 36.0 27.0 48.2 31.0
35.3 36.4 26.5 48.4 32.3
37.1 37.3 27.2 49.3 33.6
39.2 38.4 29.0 51.3 36.8
41.3 39.0 30.8 54.2 41.1
43.2 39.5 31.4 57.6 45.5
45.9 39.6 31.0 61.4 48.9
Figure 1.3.B. Private Debt
Percent of GDP
200 EAP ECA

150

100

50

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Averages computed with current U.S. dollar GDP as weight and shown as a 3-year m
EAP refer to EAP excluding China. Lines for ECA start in 1995 due to smaller sample size p
gray are for years 1970, 1990, 2002, and 2010.

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 1970
1971
ECA LAC 1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
own as a 3-year moving average. Dashed lines for 1999
aller sample size prior to that year. Vertical lines in 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
 EAP EAP excl. China ECA LAC SSA Wave
18.7 25.4 18.5 1
19.6 26.2 18.8
20.5 25.9 19.2
21.6 25.5 20.6
22.7 26.7 21.5
24.1 27.5 22.3
26.1 28.3 21.7
28.7 29.7 21
31.9 33.2 20.6
34.2 37.2 20.8
37.8 32.9 39.2 21.3
40.9 31.2 40.9 19.6
44.2 30.3 41.8 18.1
46.3 33.6 41.8 17.6
48.4 36.2 39.7 20.4
51.5 38.7 37.7 22.5
56.1 41.1 37.2 23.6
60.5 43.6 37.6 23.7
63.1 46 35.8 24.8
64.5 48.6 36 25.6
68.2 54.3 37.1 26.2 1
72.8 60.2 40.4 26.6
76.1 65 24 45.4 27.2
77.6 67.3 23.3 55 27.2
78.1 70.8 22.1 59.3 27.1
79.9 76.7 20.8 55.9 26.2
82.4 84.3 20 46.2 24.9
88.4 93.8 20.3 42.1 23.9
93.7 98.8 23.1 41.7 23.5
98.2 93.5 25.5 41.6 25.6
99.1 81.7 27.3 40.2 26.6
97.7 70.7 27.9 38.1 27.8
98.6 66.7 29.1 37.7 26.3 1
101.7 63.8 30.7 37.4 26.6
106 62.4 32.1 36.9 26.7
105.2 61 34.5 35.8 27.9
102.7 59.8 38.1 36.1 28.6
100.8 58.1 43.8 37.4 30.1
100.8 56.8 50.3 39.8 31.1
109 57.6 56 42.1 32.4
118.5 58.1 58.4 44.2 32.1 1
128.4 59.7 58.8 45.9 31.5
133.8 61.5 58.1 47.5 30.1
142.4 65.2 59.7 49.9 29.1
154.2 68.9 63.1 52.6 28.5
165 72.4 67.3 55.2 28.6
174 74.1 69.5 56.7 29.1
180.4 75 68.5 56.7 30
183.4 75.3 66.8 56.5 30
Figure 1.3.C. Change in total debt

Percentage points of GDP

80 First wave S
Third wave F
60
40
20
0
-20
EMDEs EMDEs ex
China
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: First wave covered the period 1970-1989; second wave from 1990-2001; third wave f
includes 147 economies. Change in total debt from the start to the end of each wave.

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ve Second wave
ave Fourth wave

MDEs excl. Advanced

China economies

2001; third wave from 2002-2009; and fourth wave from 2010 onwards. EMDEs
each wave.
 EMDEs EMDEs excl. China
Increase in debt First wave 47.5 40.5
Second wave 5.9 3.7
Third wave 7.7 -5.9
Fourth wave 54.5 18.5
Advanced economies
64.9
24.9
43.3
1
Figure 1.3.D. Rate of change in total debt

Percentage points of GDP

8 First wave
6
4
2
0
-2
EMDEs EMDEs excl
China
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: First wave covered the period 1970-1989; second wave from 1990-2001; third wave f
EMDEs includes 147 economies. Rate of change calculated as total increase in debt-to-GD
number of years in a wave.

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 wave Second wave

DEs excl. Advanced

China economies

2001; third wave from 2002-2009; and fourth wave from 2010 onwards.
ase in debt-to-GDP ratios over the duration of a wave, divided by the
 EMDEs EMDEs excl. China
First wave 2.5 2.1
Second wave 0.5 0.3
Third wave 1.1 -0.8
Fourth wave 6.8 2.3
Advanced economies
3.4
2.3
6.2
0.1
Figure 1.4. A. Share of EMDEs in rapid debt accumulation e

Percent of EMDEs Governmen

100 Governmen
Private debt
75

50

25

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Share of EMDEs which are in rapid debt accumulation episodes.

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umulation episodes

ernment debt only

ernment and private
ate debt only
Year Government debt only Government and private Private debt only
1970 11.1 11.1 38.9
1971 8.3 16.7 41.7
1972 8.1 27 27
1973 2.6 20.5 38.5
1974 7.5 30 30
1975 12.5 40 22.5
1976 12.5 40 20
1977 15 40 20
1978 12.5 42.5 22.5
1979 22 36.6 17.1
1980 41.2 25.5 13.7
1981 52.9 21.6 15.7
1982 52.9 21.6 11.8
1983 51 21.6 11.8
1984 49 19.6 15.7
1985 45.1 25.5 13.7
1986 33.3 25.5 15.7
1987 36.5 21.2 15.4
1988 27.8 13 27.8
1989 32.8 13.8 22.4
1990 32.3 16.9 20
1991 25.4 22.4 26.9
1992 23.6 26.4 23.6
1993 22.4 23.7 27.6
1994 17.1 22 30.5
1995 8.8 11 42.9
1996 8.7 14.1 43.5
1997 10.6 20.2 43.6
1998 18.6 18.6 38.1
1999 16.2 19.2 37.4
2000 14.6 16.5 39.8
2001 12.6 17.5 38.8
2002 9.7 17.5 42.7
2003 8.7 9.7 46.6
2004 4.8 8.6 51.4
2005 3.8 9.5 50.5
2006 2.8 11.3 62.3
2007 6.6 20.8 51.9
2008 11.3 34 39.6
2009 17.1 31.4 37.1
2010 21 30.5 28.6
2011 16.5 43.7 24.3
2012 15.4 47.1 23.1
2013 20.2 54.8 16.3
2014 20.4 52.4 16.5
2015 18.6 54.9 13.7
2016 33.7 35.6 11.9
2017 33 26.8 8.2
2018 32.9 23.5 9.4
Figure 1.4.B. Crises during debt waves
Number of crises per year
16 Banking C

12

0
1970-89 1990-2001 2

Source: International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.
Note: Number of crises in a specific wave divided by the number of years in a wave.

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 Currency Debt

01 2002-09 2010-18

in a wave.
 Wave Banking Currency Debt
1970-89 2 4.4 2.5
1990-2001 5.5 7.3 0.8
2002-09 1 2.4 1.1
2010-18 0.3 3.3 0.8
Figure 1.4.C. Duration of rapid debt accumulation episodes
Number of years Media
9

5
Government Private

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

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on episodes in EMDEs

Median Average

ivate Total
 Median Average
Government 7.0 7.9
Private 8.0 8.9
Total 7.0 8.1
Figure 1.4.D. Change in debt during rapid debt accumulatio

Percentage points of GDP

60
Median Avera

40

20

0
Government Private
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

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accumulation episodes in EMDEs

Average

Private Total
 Median Average
Government 30.4 46.2
Private 14.5 22
Total 37.1 52
Figure 1.4.E. Outcomes of rapid government debt accumula

Index, t = 100
200 Associated with crises
No crises
180

160
***
140 ***

120

100
1 2 3

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data; International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valenc
Note: Median based on balanced samples. Year “t” refers to the beginning of rapid governm
(Annex 1). Episodes associated with crises are those that experienced financial crises (ban
years after the end of episodes. The information on crises is taken from Laeven and Valenc
between episodes associated with crises and those with no crises are statistically different
respectively, based on Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.

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bt accumulation episodes after eight years

Percent of GDP
s 60

40

20

0
3 4

aeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.

g of rapid government debt accumulation episodes
ancial crises (banking, currency, and debt crises) during or within two
aeven and Valencia (2018). “*”, “**”, and “***” denote that medians
tistically different at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels,
 No Associated
crises with crises No crises Crises
Output 141 127
Invest-
ment 167 130

Short-term
external debt (RHS) 38.4 54.3
Reserves (RHS) 11.6 6.2
Figure 1.4. F Outcomes of rapid private debt accumulation e
Index, t = 100
200 Associated with crises
No crises
180 **

160 ***

140 ***

120

100
1 2 3

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data; International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valenc
Note: Median based on balanced samples. Year “t” refers to the beginning of rapid governm
(Annex 1). Episodes associated with crises are those that experienced financial crises (ban
years after the end of episodes. The information on crises is taken from Laeven and Valenc
between episodes associated with crises and those with no crises are statistically different
respectively, based on Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.

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cumulation episodes after eight years
Percent of GDP
s 60
**

40

***
20

0
3 4

aeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.

g of rapid government debt accumulation episodes
ancial crises (banking, currency, and debt crises) during or within two
aeven and Valencia (2018). “*”, “**”, and “***” denote that medians
tistically different at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels,
 Assciated
No crises with crises No crises Crises
Output 142.8 133.5
Invest-
ment 171 146
Short-term
external debt
(RHS) 32.9 43.5

Reserves (RHS) 14.4 10.4

Figure 1.5.A. Consensus long-term growth forecasts

Percent
4 2000 2007 2
3

0
World Advanced
economies

Source: Consensus Economics; World Bank.

Note: Bars show long-term (10 years ahead) average annual growth forecasts surveyed in
advanced economies (AEs) and 18 EMDEs—for which Consensus forecasts are consisten
calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights.

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 Percent 2000
2007
2019

007 2019 8 2000

2007
2019

0
anced EMDEs
nomies (RHS)

casts surveyed in respective years. Sample comprises 38 economies—20

sts are consistently available during 1998-2018. Aggregate growth rates
 EMDEs
World Advanced economies (RHS)
3.5 2.9
3.4 2.5
2.5 1.6
5.7
6
4.1
Figure 1.5.B. Current account and fiscal balances in EMDEs

Percent of GDP
0

-1

-2

-3

-4
2010 2018 2
Cyclically adjusted Cur
primary fiscal balance

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data; International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valenc
Note: Unweighted averages for current account balance and cyclically-adjusted primary bal

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es in EMDEs

2010 2018
Current account balance

aeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.

usted primary balance based on data for 152 EMDEs.
 Cyclically adjusted primary fiscal balance
Cyclically adjusted
primary fiscal balance 2010
2018
Current account balance 2010
2018
Cyclically adjusted primary fiscal balance

-0.6
-0.9
-2.8
-3.8
Figure 1.5.C. Current levels of government debt versus prev
Percent of GDP Debt accumu
Current debt
75

55

35

15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Median levels of debt during debt accumulation episodes, as defined in Annex 1. t=0
were completed before 2018. For current debt accumulation episodes, t=0 indicates 2018.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data; International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valenc
Note: Median levels of debt during debt accumulation episodes, as defined in Annex 1. t=0

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 versus previous rapid debt accumulation episodes

accumulation episodes Current debt accu

ent debt accumulation -5

-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5

6 7 8 9 10 11

d in Annex 1. t=0 indicates the peak of debt accumulation episode that

0 indicates 2018.

aeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.

d in Annex 1. t=0 indicates the peak of debt accumulation episode that were completed before 2018
Current debt accumulation Interquartile range
42.8 37.1 24.7 57.2
45.2 39.8 26.4 62.3
46.5 44.7 31.7 65.4
51.8 48.4 32.9 66.6
60.3 50.7 35.4 66.1
74.4 50.3 36 67.4 110
66.9
59.3
54.7
51.2
53
leted before 2018. For current debt accumulation episodes, t=0 indicates 2018.
Figure 1.5.D Current levels of private debt versus previous
Percent of GDP Debt acc
Current d
75

55

35

15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Median levels of debt during debt accumulation episodes, as defined in Annex 1. t=0
were completed before 2018. For current debt accumulation episodes, t=0 indicates 2018.

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 s previous rapid debt accumulation episodes

Debt accumulation episodes Current debt accu

Current debt accumulation

-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5

6 7 8 9 10 11

d in Annex 1. t=0 indicates the peak of debt accumulation episode that

0 indicates 2018.
Current debt accumulation Interquartile range
21.7 34 18.1 55.6
24.7 36 18.1 59.5
26.4 38.2 19.6 63.4
29.9 41.9 21.7 68.7
34 42.1 22.3 70.5
36.9 39.4 21 66.4 80
29.6
26.3
24.9
25
26.2
Figure 1.6.A. Investment needs in EMDEs

Percent of GDP
9 Irrigation
8 Flood protection
7 Water and sanitation
6 Transport
5
4
3
2
1
0
Preferred scenario Ma

Source: Rozenberg and Fay (2019); World Bank.

Note: Bars show average annual aggregate spending needs during 2015-30. “Preferred sce
ambitious goals and high spending efficiency, and “maximum spending scenario” assuming
efficiency. Country sample includes low- and middle-income countries.
Return to ReadMe
 Maximum spending
scenario

30. “Preferred scenario” is constructed assuming

cenario” assuming ambitious goals and low spending
 Electricity Transport Water and sanitation
Min. spending scenario 0.9 0.5 0.3
Preferred scenario 2.2 1.3 0.6
Maximum spending scenario 3 3.3 0.7
Flood protection Irrigation
0.1 0.1
0.3 0.1
1 0.2
Figure 1.6.B. Investment needs, by EMDE region
Percent of regional GDP
10
Cap
8

0
SSA SAR MNA
Source: Rozenberg and Fay (2019); World Bank.
Note: Bars show average annual spending needs during 2015-30. Estimates are generate
needs at 4.5 percent of LMICs’ GDP per year (i.e., the “preferred scenario” in panel A).
MENA=Middle East and North Africa, EAP=East Asia and Pacific, LAC=La

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 SSA
SAR
MNA
EAP
Capital Maintenance LAC

MNA EAP LAC

ates are generated using policy assumptions that cap investment

ario” in panel A). SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa, SAR=South Asia,
d Pacific, LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean.
Capital Maintenance
7.2 2.0
4.8 2.7
5.6 1.6
4.0 2.5
3.4 1.1
Figure 1.6.C. Fiscal multipliers after 2 years

Change in output
0.6

0.3

0.0

-0.3
10th percentile Med
Government debt (perce

Source: Huidrom et al. (2019); World Bank.

Note: Bars show the conditional fiscal multipliers for different levels of government debt afte
multipliers are defined as cumulative change in output relative to cumulative change in gove
response to a 1-unit government consumption shock. They are based on estimates from th
autoregression model, where model coefficients are conditioned only on government debt.
axis correspond to the 10th, 50th (median), and 90th percentiles in the sample. Bars repres
vertical lines are the 16-84 percent confidence bands.
multipliers are defined as cumulative change in output relative to cumulative change in gove
response to a 1-unit government consumption shock. They are based on estimates from th
autoregression model, where model coefficients are conditioned only on government debt.
axis correspond to the 10th, 50th (median), and 90th percentiles in the sample. Bars repres
vertical lines are the 16-84 percent confidence bands.

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 Median 90th percentile
debt (percent of GDP)

of government debt after two years. Fiscal

mulative change in government consumption in
d on estimates from the interacted panel vector
y on government debt. Values shown on the x-
he sample. Bars represent the median, and
 Multip
10th percentile 0.5 0.3
Median 0.3 0.2
90th percentile -0.2 0.3

percentile
0.3
0.2
0.3
Figure 1.6.D. Government debt and interest payments in EM

10
Interest payments
(percent of GDP)

0
0 40 80 1
Government debt (percent

Source: International Monetary Fund; Kose, Kurlat, et al. (2017, data available at
http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/fiscal-space).
Note: General government gross debt on the horizontal axis and interest payments on the v
EMDEs, excluding small states as defined by the World Bank.
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yments in EMDEs, 2018

0 120 160 200

(percent of GDP)

vailable at

st payments on the vertical axis. Sample includes 104

Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
 75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
General government gross debt, % of GDP [Government debt sustainability]
7.1
68.6
36.9
88.1
86.3
48.5
83.9
19.4
34.8
47.8
54.6
53.9
37.0
87.9
20.5
43.0
58.4
29.4
37.7
48.5
46.6
25.6
50.5
50.5
15.7
98.5
53.5
52.2
73.9
41.6
46.1
92.6
67.1
129.4
61.1
44.5
 59.6
24.5
38.7
33.0
40.3
69.4
69.8
29.2
33.2
48.4
94.2
21.9
57.2
17.0
14.8
56.0
63.0
150.9
40.5
39.7
61.3
56.2
36.6
83.9
53.6
27.1
65.2
100.4
49.4
30.4
37.2
55.1
28.4
39.5
50.9
72.1
39.4
36.9
 21.6
26.8
39.6
48.4
36.6
14.0
40.7
19.1
64.4
54.3
71.3
56.7
43.8
84.1
163.2
47.9
36.0
42.1
74.6
77.0
29.1
42.2
63.9
18.7
70.0
23.5
57.5
63.2
72.4
29.8
terest payments (percent of GDP)
0.1
2.2
0.4
4.5
3.0
2.3
4.4
0.8
2.3
2.0
2.2
1.0
0.8
6.9
0.6
1.3
3.7
0.4
0.9
0.3
1.4
0.8
1.0
3.2
0.4
2.2
3.6
1.8
2.4
3.3
2.5
9.4
3.4
3.2
0.5
1.3
5.6
1.4
1.0
0.3
2.5
2.4
4.9
1.7
0.4
1.4
3.3
1.0
3.9
0.3
0.4
1.3
1.6
9.7
0.8
0.9
3.9
2.3
0.9
1.7
4.1
0.8
2.5
3.8
1.7
0.5
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.2
1.9
4.4
1.8
2.4
1.1
1.2
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.2
0.6
2.0
2.1
3.0
3.8
0.3
5.9
0.5
1.3
1.6
1.0
2.4
2.6
2.2
2.2
3.5
0.3
3.4
0.1
2.0
0.2
4.8
0.7
Figure 1.7.A. LAC: Growth
Percent
8 GDP
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1970-81 1982-83 19

Source: Haver Analytics; IMF; OECD; World Bank

Notes: GDP weighted average across 32 LAC countries.

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GDP GDP per capita

1984-90 1991-95
 LAC

apita 1970-81
1982-83
1984-90
1991-95

91-95
GDP per capita GDP
3.4 5.9
-3.6 -1.5
0.6 2.7
1.5 3.3
Figure 1.7.B. LAC: External debt

Percent of GDP
70 Mexico defa
60
50
40
30
20
10 Total de
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1
Source: World Bank.

Note: Short-term debt has maturity of less than 12 months. Sample includes 24 countries.

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 Percent of GDP
xico defaults 12
10
8
6
4
Total debt 2
0
1985 1990 1995 2000

udes 24 countries.
 Short-term
Total debt debt (RHS)
1970 20.8 3.2
1971 21.3 3.3
1972 22.7 3.5
1973 21.8 3.3
1974 21.7 3.1
1975 22.6 3.2
1976 25.0 3.7
1977 30.7 6.5
1978 33.4 6.6
1979 33.2 7.3
1980 34.0 9.2
1981 34.8 9.7
1982 42.9 11.1
1983 55.9 9.3
1984 56.7 6.8
1985 56.4 6.2
1986 60.4 4.9
1987 62.1 6.2
1988 51.9 5.6
1989 40.2 5.2
1990 40.1 6.4
1991 33.3 5.8
1992 38.9 7.0
1993 36.1 7.9
1994 33.4 7.3
1995 34.2 6.7
1996 31.8 5.7
1997 30.1 5.4
1998 33.9 5.1
1999 39.3 5.2
2000 33.5 4.4
Figure 1.7.C. LIC: External debt

Percent of GDP
160 HIPC initiative begins

120

80

40

0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Source: World Bank.

Notes: Sample includes 29 low-income countries, defined as countries with a GNI per capit
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egins
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

with a GNI per capita of $1,005 or less in 2016.

 Total debt
1970 13.0
1971 17.2
1972 17.8
1973 18.3
1974 19.6
1975 20.1
1976 23.0
1977 27.3
1978 30.0
1979 30.8
1980 34.6
1981 42.4
1982 46.4
1983 54.5
1984 63.8
1985 75.7
1986 72.1
1987 89.5
1988 88.0
1989 93.2
1990 92.4
1991 95.1
1992 106.3
1993 110.0
1994 144.8
1995 131.7
1996 115.7
1997 107.7
1998 108.2
1999 101.1
2000 81.5
2001 83.6
2002 81.6
2003 79.4
2004 70.8
2005 52.2
2006 35.5
2007 32.3
2008 27.5
2009 28.4
2010 24.7
2011 23.0
2012 22.2
2013 24.1
2014 24.2
2015 25.9
2016 27.6
2017 28.8
2018 27.6
Figure 1.7.D. Cumulative debt relief in LICs
Percent of total debt
40 HIPC initative begin

30

20

10

Source: World Bank.

Notes: Cumulative debt relief since 1990, as a share of total debt in 1996, when the HIPC in

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ative begins

996, when the HIPC initiative began.

Year
1990 1
1991 1.7
1992 2.3
1993 2.8
1994 3.8
1995 4.6
1996 4.8
1997 7.2
1998 7.3
1999 11.5
2000 12
2001 12.7
2002 15.5
2003 16.3
2004 18.8
2005 29.2
2006 30.2
2007 30.6
2008 31.7
2009 32.2
2010 35.5
2011 35.8
2012 35.8
2013 35.9
2014 36
2015 36
2016 36
2017 36.1
Figure 1.8.A. EAP: Growth in external debt

Percent Public debt

60
Asian f
40

20

-20
1994

1998
1990

1992

1996

Source: World Bank

Note: Includes long-term external debt only. Negative values indicate declining external deb

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bt Private debt
Asian financial crisis begins
1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

e declining external debt in U.S. dollar terms.

 Public Private
debt debt
1990 11.9 49.2
1991 7.2 39.4
1992 7.2 20.2
1993 10 1.5
1994 12.2 48.5
1995 5.4 58.7
1996 0.2 21.1
1997 3.5 11.7
1998 3.2 34.9
1999 4.9 -1.8
2000 -6.2 -8.7
2001 -5.2 -7.9
2002 0.3 -6.7
2003 0.1 2.9
2004 0.5 11.8
2005 -0.3 12.2
2006 0.3 12.7
2006
Figure 1.8.B. EAP: Sectoral distribution of external debt

Percent of external debt

P
100

80

60

40

20

0
1990

Source: World Bank.

Notes: Includes long-term external debt only.

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ernal debt

Public Private

1997
 Public Private
1990 89 11
1997 69.9 30.1
Figure 1.8.C. ECA: External debt

Percent of GDP
70 Global financial crisis
60
50
40
30
20
Total debt
10
Short-term debt (RHS)
0
1990

1995

2000

2005
Source: World Bank.

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 Percent of GDP
cial crisis 10
8
6
4
2
(RHS)
0
2005

2010

2015
 Short-term
Total debt debt (RHS)
1990 14.9 2.6
1991 16.6 2.8
1992 20.5 3.6
1993 27.4 4.0
1994 32.9 3.8
1995 32.7 4.2
1996 34.6 4.7
1997 35.2 4.4
1998 47.1 6.2
1999 58.7 7.9
2000 51.2 8.1
2001 51.9 8.2
2002 48.5 6.7
2003 47.1 7.9
2004 41.1 6.7
2005 37.2 6.5
2006 39.5 7.3
2007 40.8 9.2
2008 36.3 6.9
2009 47.1 7.3
2010 41.8 7.6
2011 38.3 6.7
2012 38.8 7.2
2013 40.7 7.6
2014 40.2 7.1
2015 48.2 7.3
2016 53.2 7.6
2017 48.7 7.7
Figure 1.8.D. Cross-border lending to EMDEs

Percent of GDP BIS

5 Non
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: BIS; World Bank.

Note: Offshore financial centers are excluded. Based on data for 86 EMDEs excluding Chin
BIS locational banking statistics and represents changes in stock of claims on EMDEs. Len
calculated as total bank loans and deposits from the IMF Balance of Payment Statistics min
BIS reporting banks. Cross-border lending flows as a percentage of GDP are shown as tota
sample divided by their aggregate GDP
BIS locational banking statistics and represents changes in stock of claims on EMDEs. Len
calculated as total bank loans and deposits from the IMF Balance of Payment Statistics min
BIS reporting banks. Cross-border lending flows as a percentage of GDP are shown as tota
sample divided by their aggregate GDP

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 BIS reporting banks
Non-BIS reporting banks
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

MDEs excluding China. BIS data are from the

ims on EMDEs. Lending by non-BIS banks is
ayment Statistics minus cross-border lending by
DP are shown as total for all countries in the
 2002
BIS reporting banks -0.1
nks Non-BIS reporting banks 0
2009
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1 1 1.6 2.4 4 0.5 -0.6
-0.4 0 -0.4 -0.7 0.1 1.8 0.5
Figure 1.9.A. Countries with increase in government debt, b

Percent of countries
EAP
100

80

60

40

20

0
First wave Second Th
wave
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Charts show the share of countries where the debt-to-GDP ratio increased over the d
Regions are excluded if available country-level data is less than one-third of the full region.

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nment debt, by region

EAP ECA LAC MNA

nd Third wave Fourth wave

e
ncreased over the duration of the wave.
ird of the full region.
 First wave Second wave Third wave Fourth wave

NA EAP
ECA
72.7 29.4
31.8
73.7
75
LAC 90.9 40.7 34.4 75
MNA 40 11.1 88.9
SAR 100 85.7 28.6 71.4
SSA 90.6 77.5 6.5 82.6

ve
Figure 1.9.B. Countries with increase in private debt, by reg

Percent of countries
EAP
100

80

60

40

20

0
First wave Second Thi
wave
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Charts show the share of countries where the debt-to-GDP ratio increased over the d
Regions are excluded if available country-level data is less than one-third of the full region.

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e debt, by region

EAP ECA LAC MNA

d Third wave Fourth wave

ncreased over the duration of the wave.

rd of the full region.
 First wave Second wave Third wave
EAP 58.3 82.4
ECA 95.5
LAC 66.7 84.4 65.6
MNA 75 77.8
SAR 80 100 85.7
SSA 68 42.1 85.4
Fourth wave
75
45.5
72.4
69.2
71.4
70
Figure 1.9.C. Average maturity and non-concessional debt i

Number of years Pe
11

10

7
2010 2018 20
Average maturity of Non
sovereign debt

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Median of 35 EMDEs.
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ssional debt in EMDEs

Percent of government debt

80

75

70

65

60
2010 2017
Nonconcessional debt
(RHS)
 V1
Average maturity of sovereign debt 2010 7.9
2018 8.3
Nonconcessional debt (RHS) 2010
2017
 V2

69.1
75.9
Figure 1.9.D. Nonresident share of government debt, foreign

Percent of total
Non-resident share of gove
Foreign currency share of c
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: BIS; Institute of International Finance; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Nonresident share of government debt is average for 45 EMDEs, with a smaller samp
Foreign currency share of corporate debt of average for 21 EMDEs.

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 t debt, foreign currency share of corporate debt

e of government debt
share of corporate debt
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

Fund; World Bank.

with a smaller sample size for earlier years.
 Non-resident share of government debt
2005 38.1
2006 36.9
2007 36.3
2008 33.9
2009 38.3
2010 40.4
2011 43.1
2012 44.3
2013 43.9
2014 44.5
2015 43.7
2016 43.2
2017 44.1
2018 43.3
Foreign currency share of corporate debt
15.3
15.5
16.7
18.4
18.5
19.2
21
21
23.2
25.5
26.6
26.4
26
26
Figure 1.10.A. Government debt accumulation episodes ass

Percent of episodes
60

40

20

0
All Banking Curr

Sources: International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.
Notes: Episodes associated with crises are those that experience financial crises (i.e., bank
Laeven and Valencia 2018) during or within two years after the end of episodes. For definit
5.1.

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n episodes associated with crises

g Currency Debt

World Bank.
ncial crises (i.e., banking, currency, and debt crises, as in
f episodes. For definition of episodes and sample, see Annex
 All Banking Currency Debt
Government debt 53.5 28.1 42.6 14.8
Figure 1.10.B. Private debt accumulation episodes associat

Percent of episodes
60

40

20

0
All Banking Curr
Sources: International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.
Notes: Episodes associated with crises are those that experience financial crises (i.e., bank
Laeven and Valencia 2018) during or within two years after the end of episodes. For definit
5.1.

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sodes associated with crises

g Currency Debt
World Bank.
ncial crises (i.e., banking, currency, and debt crises, as in
f episodes. For definition of episodes and sample, see Annex
 AllBanking urrency Debt
Private debt 40.0 20.4 31.7 10.9
Figure 1.10.C. Debt during government debt accumulation e

Index t=100
125
With crisis
120 Without crisis

115

110

105

100
t+2

Source: International Monetary Fund, Laeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.
Notes: Medians for pooled government and private episodes with data available for at least
episode. Year “t” refers to the beginning of rapid private or government debt accumulation e
at t=0. Episodes associated with crises are those experience financial crises (i.e., banking,
and Valencia 2018) during or within two years after the end of episodes. *, **, and *** denot
associated with crises and those with no crises are statistically different at 10 percent, 5 pe
based on Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Cumulative change in government debt in percentage p
start of the government debt accumulation episode (t). An asterisk indicates significance at
at t=0. Episodes associated with crises are those experience financial crises (i.e., banking,
and Valencia 2018) during or within two years after the end of episodes. *, **, and *** denot
associated with crises and those with no crises are statistically different at 10 percent, 5 pe
based on Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Cumulative change in government debt in percentage p
start of the government debt accumulation episode (t). An asterisk indicates significance at

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accumulation episodes

***

t+8

World Bank.
a available for at least 8 years from the beginning of the
nt debt accumulation episodes. All variables are scaled to 100
l crises (i.e., banking, currency, and debt crises, as in Laeven
es. *, **, and *** denote that medians between episodes
nt at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels, respectively,
t debt in percentage points of GDP, rebased to 100 at the
dicates significance at the 10 percent level.
 With crisis Without crisis
Debt t+2 109.3 107.6
t+8 119.4 115.8
Figure 1.10.D. Output and per capita output during governm

Index t=100

160 With crisis W

***
140

120

100
t+2 t+8 t
Output

Source: International Monetary Fund, Laeven and Valencia (2018); World Bank.
Notes: Medians for pooled government and private episodes with data available for at least
episode. Year “t” refers to the beginning of rapid private or government debt accumulation e
at t=0. Episodes associated with crises are those experience financial crises (i.e., banking,
and Valencia 2018) during or within two years after the end of episodes. *, **, and *** denot
associated with crises and those with no crises are statistically different at 10 percent, 5 pe
based on Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Based on cumulative real growth rates for output and o
government debt accumulation episode.

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 uring government debt accumulation episodes

Without crisis

***

t+2 t+8
Output
per capita

World Bank.
a available for at least 8 years from the beginning of the
nt debt accumulation episodes. All variables are scaled to 100
l crises (i.e., banking, currency, and debt crises, as in Laeven
es. *, **, and *** denote that medians between episodes
nt at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels, respectively,
rates for output and output per capita from the start of the
 With crisis Without crisis

Output t+2 105 107

t+8 127 141

Output
per
capita t+2 101 103
t+8 107 120
Figure 1.11.A. EMDEs with fiscal rules

Number Number of EMDEs

70 Share of EMDE GDP
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
Source: Dincer and Eichengreen (2014), International Monetary Fund, Kose et al (2017); W
Note: EMDE implementing one or more fiscal rules on expenditure, revenue, budget balanc
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EMDEs Percent
MDE GDP (RHS) 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2
, Kose et al (2017); World Bank.
evenue, budget balance or debt.
 Number of EMDEs re of EMDE GDP (RHS)
1999 10.0 7.7
2015 62.0 29.0
Figure 1.11.B. EMDEs with inflation targeting

Number Number of EMDEs

70
Share of EMDE GDP
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1999
Source: Dincer and Eichengreen (2014), Ha, Kose, and Ohnsorge (2019); International Mo
Note: Inflation targeting as classified in the IMF Annual Report of Exchange Arrangements
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 Percent
EMDEs
60
MDE GDP (RHS)
50
40
30
20
10
0
2017
019); International Monetary Fund, World Bank.
hange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions.
 Number of EMDEs Share of EMDE GDP
1999 3.0 14.0
2017 27.0 44.4
Figure 1.11.C. EMDEs with flexible exchange rates

Number Number of EMDEs

30 Share of EMDE GDP

20

10

0
1999
Source: Dincer and Eichengreen (2014); International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Flexible exchange rate are defined as those classified as “Floating” or “Free Floating”
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 Percent
EMDEs
MDE GDP (RHS) 80

60

40

20
2017
; World Bank.
ing” or “Free Floating” in the IMF Annual Report of Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrict
 Free float Share of EMDE GDP
1999 11 49.2
2017 26 42.9

nd Exchange Restrictions.
Figure 1.11.D. EMDE central bank transparency

Index
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999

Source: Dincer and Eichengreen (2014); International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: As classified in Dincer and Eichengreen (2014).
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 2014

; World Bank.
CB Transparency
1999 2.6
2014 5.1
Figure 1.11.E. Sovereign credit ratings

Index (1-21, higher better)

11 20

10
9
8
7
6
EMDEs Commodity-
porting EMDE

Source: World Bank.

Note: Unweighted averages of foreign currency sovereign credit ratings for 49 EMDE comm
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 2010 2018

mmodity- ex- Commodity-

ing EMDEs importing
EMDEs
gs for 49 EMDE commodity exporters and 40 EMDE commodity importers. Whiskers denote interqu
 EMDEs 10.3 7.5 13.1 9.4
Commodity- exporting EMDEs 10 7 12.4 9.4
Commodity- importing EMDEs 10.6 8.5 13.2 9.4
2.8 2.9
3 2.4
2.1 2.6

skers denote interquartile ranges.

6.7 11.8
6.7 11.7
6.9 12
2.7 2.4
2.6 2.3
2.5 2.6
Figure 1.11.F. Non-financial corporate debt

Percent of GDP Latest availab

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
EMDEs Commodity-
exporting
EMDEs
Source: Institute of International Finance; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Based on data for 40 EMDEs. Latest available datapoint is 2019Q2 for Argentina, Bra
Colombia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sou
Thailand, and Turkey; and 2017 for the rest. Unweighted average of nonfinancial corporate
EMDE commodity exporters and 19 EMDE commodity importers

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st available 2010

mmodity- Commodity-
xporting importing
EMDEs EMDEs
d; World Bank.
9Q2 for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China,
sia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa,
nonfinancial corporate debt in 21
 Latest available 2010
EMDEs 39.1 34.9
Commodity- exporting EMDEs 31.9 25.9
Commodity- importing EMDEs 47 45