PowerPoint Slides prepared by:

Andreea CHIRITESCU
Eastern Illinois University
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27
The Basic Tools of Finance

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1
 Present Value
• Finance
– Studies how people make decisions:
• Allocation of resources over time
• Handling of risk
• Present value
– Amount of money today
– That would be needed
• Using prevailing interest rates
• To produce a given future amount of money

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permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.

Present Value
• Future value
– Amount of money in the future
– That an amount of money today will yield
• Given prevailing interest rates
• Compounding
– Accumulation of a sum of money
• Interest earned remains in the account
• To earn additional interest in the future

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 Present Value
• Present value = $100
– Interest rate = r
– Future value = …
• (1+r) ˣ $100 – after 1 year
• (1+r) ˣ (1+r) ˣ $100 = (1+r)2 ˣ $100 – after 2
years
• (1+r)3 ˣ $100 – after 3 years …
• (1+r)N ˣ $100 – after N years

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Present Value
• Future value = $200 in N years
– Interest rate = r
– Present value = $200/(1+r)N
• Discounting
– Find present value for a future sum o
money

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3
 Present Value
• General formula for discounting:
• r – interest rate
• X – amount to be received in N years (future
value)
– Present value = X/(1+r)N

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Managing Risk
• Rational response to risk
– Not necessarily to avoid it at any cost
– Take it into account in your decision
making
• Risk aversion
– Dislike of uncertainty
• Utility
– A person’s subjective measure of well-
being/ satisfaction
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 Managing Risk
• Utility function
– Every level of wealth provides a certain
amount of utility
– Exhibits diminishing marginal utility
• The more wealth a person has
• The less utility he gets from an additional
dollar

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Figure 1
•The Utility Function
Utility
Utility gain from
winning $1,000

Utility loss from

losing $1,000

0 Wealth
$1,000 loss Current $1,000 gain
wealth

This utility function shows how utility, a subjective measure of satisfaction, depends
on wealth. As wealth rises, the utility function becomes flatter, reflecting the property
of diminishing marginal utility. Because of diminishing marginal utility, a $1,000 loss
decreases utility by more than a $1,000 gain increases it.
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5
 Managing Risk
• The markets for insurance
– Person facing a risk
• Pays a fee to insurance company
– Insurance company
• Accepts all or a part of risk
• Insurance contract – gamble
– You may not face the risk
– Pay the insurance premium
– Receive: peace of mind
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Managing Risk
• Role of insurance
• Not to eliminate the risks
• Spread the risks around more efficiently
• Markets for insurance – problems:
– Adverse selection
• High-risk person – more likely to apply for
insurance
– Moral hazard
• After people buy insurance - less incentive to
be careful
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 Managing Risk
• Diversification
– Reduction of risk
– By replacing a single risk with a large
number of smaller, unrelated risks
– “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”
• Risk
– Standard deviation - measures the
volatility of a variable

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Managing Risk
• Risk of a portfolio of stocks
– Depends on number of stocks in the
portfolio
– The higher the standard deviation
– The riskier the portfolio

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 Figure 2
•Diversification Reduces Risk
Risk (standard
deviation of 1. Increasing the number of stocks
portfolio return) in a portfolio reduces firm-specific
(More risk) risk through diversification . . .
49

2. . . . but market
20 risk remains.

(Less risk)
0 1 4 6 8 10 20 30 40
Number of Stocks in Portfolio
This figure shows how the risk of a portfolio, measured here with a statistic called the standard
deviation, depends on the number of stocks in the portfolio. The investor is assumed to put an
equal percentage of his portfolio in each of the stocks. Increasing the number of stocks reduces,
but does not eliminate, the amount of risk in a stock portfolio.
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Managing Risk
• Diversification
– Can eliminate firm-specific risk
– Cannot eliminate market risk
• Firm-specific risk
– Affects only a single company
• Market risk
– Affects all companies in the stock market

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8
 Managing Risk
• Risk-return trade-off
– Two types of assets
• Diversified group
– 8% return
– 20% standard deviation
• Safe alternative
– 3% return
– 0% standard deviation
– The more a person puts into stocks
• The greater the risk and the return

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Figure 3
•The Trade-off between Risk and Return
Return (percent
per year)
100%
75% stocks
50% stocks
8 25% stocks
No stocks
stocks

0 5 10 15 20
Risk (standard deviation)

When people increase the percentage of their savings that they have invested in
stocks, they increase the average return they can expect to earn, but they also
increase the risks they face.
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9
 Asset Valuation
• Fundamental analysis
– Study of a company’s accounting
statements and future prospects
– To determine its value
• Undervalued stock: Price < value
• Overvalued stock: Price > value
• Fairly valued stock:
– Price = value

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Asset Valuation
• Use fundamental analysis to pick a stock
– Do all the necessary research yourself
– Rely on the advice of Wall Street analysts
– Buy a mutual fund
• A manager conducts fundamental analysis
and makes the decision for you

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10
 Asset Valuation
• The efficient markets hypothesis
– Asset prices reflect all publicly available
information about the value of an asset
– Each company listed on a major stock
exchange is followed closely by many
money managers
– Equilibrium of supply and demand sets the
market price

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Asset Valuation
• Stock markets
– Exhibit informational efficiency
• Informational efficiency
– Description of asset prices
– Rationally reflect all available information
• Implication of efficient markets hypothesis
– Stock prices should follow a random walk
• Changes in stock prices are impossible to
predict from available information
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11
 Random walks and index funds
• The efficient markets hypothesis
– Theory about how financial markets work
– Probably not completely true
• Evidence
– Stock prices – very close to a random
walk
• Index fund
– Mutual fund that buys all stocks in a given
stock index

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Random walks and index funds

• Active funds
– Actively managed mutual funds
• Professional portfolio manager
– Buy only the best stocks
• Performance of index funds
– Better than active funds

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12
 Random walks and index funds
• Active portfolio managers
– Lower return than index funds
– Trade more frequently
– Incur more trading costs
– Charge greater fees
– Only 25% of managers beat the market

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Asset Valuation
• Efficient markets hypothesis
– Assumes that people buying & selling
stock are rational
• Process information about stock’s underlying
value
• Fluctuations in stock prices
– Partly psychological

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13
 Asset Valuation
• When price of an asset
– Above its fundamental value
– Market - experiencing a speculative
bubble
• Possibility of speculative bubbles
– Value of the stock to a stockholder
depends on:
• Stream of dividend payments
• Final sale price

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Asset Valuation
• Debate - frequency & importance of
departures from rational pricing
– Market irrationality
• Movement in stock market
– Hard to explain - news that alter a rational
valuation
– Efficient markets hypothesis
• Impossible to know the correct/ rational
valuation of a company

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