Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation: Name Name Name Year Date $ As Stated Millions # # % % %
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation: Name Name Name Year Date $ As Stated Millions # # % % %
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation: Name Name Name Year Date $ As Stated Millions # # % % %
Company Name: Name Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. Current Equity Value: $ 5,487
Ticker: Name PK (-) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: (293)
Company Type: Name Hotel REIT (+) Total Debt: 3,222
Last Historical Year: Year 2016-12-31 (+) Preferred Stock: -
(+) Noncontrolling Interests: (49)
Valuation Date: Date 2017-01-27 Current Enterprise Value: $ 8,367
Current Share Price: $ as Stated $ 27.77
Shares Outstanding: Millions 197.605
Months in Year: # 12
Conversion Units: # 1,000,000
Minimum Cash Balance % Operating Expenses: % 5.0%
Historical: Projected:
Income Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Total Revenue: $M $ 2,513 $ 2,688 $ 2,727 $ 2,819 $ 2,903 $ 3,045 $ 3,194 $ 3,340
Operating Expenses:
(-) Property-Level Expenses: $M (1,758) (1,862) (1,909) (1,981) (2,050) (2,156) (2,271) (2,385)
(-) Impairment Loss: $M - - (15) - - - - -
(-) Depreciation & Amortization: $M (248) (287) (300) (316) (331) (353) (377) (401)
(-) Corporate & Other: $M (67) (96) (85) (88) (91) (95) (100) (104)
Total Operating Expenses: $M (2,073) (2,245) (2,309) (2,385) (2,471) (2,604) (2,748) (2,890)
(+) Gain / (-) Loss on Sale of Assets, Net: $M - 143 - (30) (29) (27) (26) (24)
Operating Income: $M 440 586 418 404 403 413 421 426
(-) Net Interest Expense: $M (185) (185) (179) (119) (117) (115) (120) (122)
(+/-) Other Items: $M 43 16 (19) - - - - -
Pre-Tax Income: $M 298 417 220 285 286 299 301 305
(-) Income Taxes: $M (117) (118) (82) - - - - -
Net Income: $M 181 299 138 285 286 299 301 305
(-) Net Income Attributable to NCI: $M (5) (7) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6)
Net Income Attributable to Parent: $M $ 176 $ 292 $ 132 $ 279 $ 280 $ 293 $ 295 $ 299
Historical: Projected:
Income Statement Drivers: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Depreciation & Amortization % Revenue: % 9.9% 10.7% 11.0% 11.2% 11.4% 11.6% 11.8% 12.0%
Corporate & Other % Revenue: % 2.7% 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Weighted Average Interest Rate on Debt: % 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5%
TOTAL ASSETS: $M $ 9,714 $ 9,787 $ 9,834 $ 9,642 $ 9,528 $ 9,630 $ 9,762 $ 9,897
Common Shareholders' Equity: $M 2,617 2,821 3,872 3,721 3,580 3,546 3,530 3,887
(+) Noncontrolling Interests (NCI): $M (24) (24) (49) (43) (37) (31) (25) (19)
Total Equity: $M 2,593 2,797 3,823 3,678 3,543 3,515 3,505 3,868
TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY: $M $ 9,714 $ 9,787 $ 9,834 $ 9,642 $ 9,528 $ 9,630 $ 9,762 $ 9,897
Balance Check: OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!
Historical: Projected:
Balance Sheet Drivers: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Accounts Receivable % Revenue: % 3.9% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4%
Other Assets % Revenue: % 71.8% 9.2% 8.1% 8.0% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6%
Accounts Payable % Operating Expenses: % 7.0% 7.6% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
Other Liabilities % Operating Expenses: % 131.3% 120.7% 113.6% 110.0% 106.0% 100.0% 94.0% 88.0%
Historical: Projected:
Cash Flow Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Cash Flow from Operations:
(+) Net Income Attributable to Parent: $M $ 176 $ 292 $ 132 $ 279 $ 280 $ 293 $ 295 $ 299
(+) Net Income Attributable to NCI: $M 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
(+) Depreciation & Amortization: $M 248 287 300 316 331 353 377 401
(+) Impairment Loss: $M - - 15 - - - - -
(-) Gain / (+) Loss on Sale of Assets, Net: $M - (143) - 30 29 27 26 24
(+/-) Changes in Goodwill & Intangibles: $M - - - - - - - -
(+/-) Other Items, Net: $M 75 15 (17) - - - - -
(+/-) Change in Working Capital: $M 12 61 (37) (6) (8) (24) (31) (48)
Cash Flow from Operations: $M $ 516 $ 519 $ 399 $ 624 $ 637 $ 655 $ 673 $ 681
Effect of FX Rate Effects: $M (1) (4) 2 (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Historical: Projected:
Cash Flow Statement Drivers: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Recurring Maintenance CapEx % Revenue: % 6.8% 8.4% 8.3% 8.4% 8.5% 8.6% 8.7% 8.8%
(+) Net Income Attributable to Parent: $M $ 176 $ 292 $ 132 $ 279 $ 280 $ 293 $ 295 $ 299
(+) Depreciation & Amortization: $M 248 287 300 316 331 353 377 401
(+) Impairment Loss: $M - - 15 - - - - -
(-) Gain / (+) Loss on Sale of Assets, Net: $M - (143) - 30 29 27 26 24
(+/-) Other Adjustments: $M - 18 35 35 35 35 35 35
Funds from Operations (FFO): $M $ 424 $ 454 $ 482 $ 659 $ 675 $ 708 $ 733 $ 758
Historical: Projected:
Key Metrics and Ratios: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Net Operating Income (NOI): $M 755 826 818 838 853 888 923 955
NOI Growth: % N/A 9.4% (1.0%) 2.4% 1.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5%
Forward Cap Rate Based on Gross RE Assets: % 9.9% 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 8.1% 8.1%
Debt / EBITDA: x 6.18 x 5.63 x 4.40 x 4.22 x 4.18 x 4.19 x 4.22 x 3.85 x
Net Debt / EBITDA: x 6.12 x 5.53 x 4.00 x 3.83 x 4.01 x 4.02 x 4.05 x 3.68 x
EBITDA / Interest: x 3.72 x 3.95 x 4.09 x 6.29 x 6.51 x 6.92 x 6.89 x 7.00 x
Total Debt / Total Equity: % 164.0% 146.9% 84.3% 86.1% 89.9% 94.4% 99.1% 84.7%
Total Debt / Total Assets: % 43.8% 42.0% 32.8% 32.8% 33.4% 34.5% 35.6% 33.1%
Historical: Projected:
Consolidated Hotels: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Revenue:
(+) Rooms: $M $ 1,679 $ 1,783 $ 1,795 $ 1,848 $ 1,899 $ 1,951 $ 2,001 $ 2,040
(+) Food & Beverage: $M 644 691 719 751 783 813 841 866
(+) Other: $M 190 214 213 219 225 232 237 242
(+) Revenue from Acquired Hotels: $M - - - - - 52 109 172
(+) Revenue from Developed/Redeveloped Hotels: $M - - - - 29 64 105 152
(-) Lost Revenue from Disposed Hotels: $M - - - - (34) (67) (100) (133)
Total Revenue: $M 2,513 2,688 2,727 2,819 2,903 3,045 3,194 3,340
Property-Level Expenses:
(-) Rooms: $M (457) (456) (466) (479) (490) (502) (512) (520)
(-) Food & Beverage: $M (454) (487) (503) (525) (548) (568) (589) (606)
(-) Other Property-Level: $M (770) (830) (849) (883) (918) (950) (984) (1,013)
(-) Management Fees: $M (77) (89) (91) (94) (97) (102) (107) (111)
(-) Expenses from Acquired Hotels: $M - - - - - (36) (77) (121)
(-) Expenses from Developed/Redeveloped Hotels: $M - - - - (20) (45) (74) (106)
(+) Expenses from Disposed Hotels: $M - - - - 24 47 70 93
Total Property-Level Expenses: $M (1,758) (1,862) (1,909) (1,981) (2,050) (2,156) (2,271) (2,385)
Net Operating Income (NOI): $M 755 826 818 838 853 888 923 955
NOI Margin: % 30.0% 30.7% 30.0% 29.7% 29.4% 29.2% 28.9% 28.6%
Gross Real Estate Assets: $M 8,318 10,353 10,413 10,520 10,898 11,328 11,810 12,320
Cap Rate: % 9.9% 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 8.1% 8.1%
Historical: Projected:
Existing Hotels - Revenue and Expenses: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Average Room Count: # Rooms 30,668 30,652 30,485 30,485 30,485 30,485 30,485 30,485
Occupancy Rate: % 80.9% 81.9% 81.0% 81.2% 81.4% 81.6% 81.8% 82.0%
Days in Period: # Days 365 365 366 365 365 365 366 365
Average Daily Rate (ADR): $ / Room Night $ 185.41 $ 194.59 $ 198.62 $ 204.58 $ 209.69 $ 214.93 $ 219.23 $ 223.62
ADR Growth %: % 4.2% 5.0% 2.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0%
Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR): $ / Room Night $ 149.99 $ 159.37 $ 160.88 $ 166.12 $ 170.69 $ 175.39 $ 179.33 $ 183.37
Available Room Nights: # Room Nights 11,193,820 11,187,798 11,157,327 11,126,843 11,126,843 11,126,843 11,157,327 11,126,843
Occupied Room Nights: # Room Nights 9,055,800 9,162,806 9,037,435 9,034,996 9,057,250 9,079,503 9,126,693 9,124,011
F&B Revenue per Occupied Room Night: $ / Room Night $ 71.11 $ 75.41 $ 79.56 $ 83.14 $ 86.46 $ 89.49 $ 92.17 $ 94.94
F&B Revenue Growth %: % 3.5% 6.0% 5.5% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0%
Other Revenue per Occupied Room Night: $ / Room Night $ 20.98 $ 23.36 $ 23.57 $ 24.28 $ 24.88 $ 25.50 $ 26.01 $ 26.54
Other Revenue Growth %: % 5.6% 11.3% 0.9% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0%
Room Margin: % 72.8% 74.4% 74.0% 74.1% 74.2% 74.3% 74.4% 74.5%
Food & Beverage Margin: % 29.5% 29.5% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Other Property-Level Expenses per Available Room: $ / Room $ 25,108 $ 27,079 $ 27,850 $ 28,964 $ 30,123 $ 31,177 $ 32,268 $ 33,236
Property-Level Expenses Growth %: % 4.9% 7.9% 2.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Management Fees % Revenue: % 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Historical: Projected:
Acquisitions: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Historical: Projected:
Development & Redevelopment: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Renovation Spending: $M $ - $ - $ - $ 50 $ 60 $ 70 $ 80 $ 90
Yield on Renovation Spending: % 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5%
Historical: Projected:
Dispositions: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Proceeds from Asset Dispositions: $M $ 15 $ 1,866 $ - $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 $ 150
Gain / (Loss) on Sale of Real Estate Assets: $M - 143 - (30) (29) (27) (26) (24)
Gain / (Loss) % Asset Proceeds: % 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% (20.0%) (19.0%) (18.0%) (17.0%) (16.0%)
Historical: Projected:
Balance Sheet: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
ASSETS:
Forward Property Net Operating Income (NOI): $M $ 838
(÷) Assumed Cap Rate: % 7.5%
Market Value of Gross Real Estate Operating Assets: $M $ 11,168
Construction-in-Progress: $M 79
(x) Market Value Adjustment: % 120.0%
Market Value of Construction-in-Progress: $M 95
Planned Debt-to-Total-Capital Ratio: % 50.0% Baseline Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 11.0 x Baseline Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.5%
Cost of Debt: % 3.50% Baseline Terminal Value: $ 13,780 Baseline Terminal Value: $ 13,780
Discount Rate (WACC): % 6.48% Implied Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.5% Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 11.0 x
PV of Future Stock Issuances: $M $ 984 (+) PV of Terminal Value: $ 7,354 (+) PV of Terminal Value: $ 7,354
PV of Terminal Value of Stock Issuances: $M 852 (+) Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: 3,185 (+) Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: 3,185
Estimated # of Future Shares to Be Issued: # Millions 66.112 Implied Enterprise Value: 10,538 Implied Enterprise Value: 10,538
Total Shares Outstanding: # Millions 263.717
% of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 69.8% % of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 69.8%
Current Equity Value: $ 5,487
(-) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: (293) (+) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: 293 (+) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: $ 293
(+) Total Debt: 3,222 (-) Total Debt: (3,222) (-) Total Debt: (3,222)
(+) Preferred Stock: - (-) Preferred Stock: - (-) Preferred Stock: -
(+) Noncontrolling Interests: (49) (-) Noncontrolling Interests: 49 (-) Noncontrolling Interests: 49
Current Enterprise Value: 8,367 Implied Equity Value: 7,658 Implied Equity Value: 7,658
Implied Share Price from DCF: $ 29.04 Implied Share Price from DCF: $ 29.04
Premium / (Discount) to Current: 4.6% Premium / (Discount) to Current: 4.6%
Historical: Projected:
Free Cash Flow Projections: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26
Revenue: $M $ 2,513 $ 2,688 $ 2,727 $ 2,819 $ 2,903 $ 3,045 $ 3,194 $ 3,340 $ 3,510 $ 3,686 $ 3,866 $ 4,052 $ 4,247
Revenue Growth Rate: % N/A 7.0% 1.5% 3.4% 3.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.6% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8%
(-) Normalized Operating Expenses: $M (2,073) (2,245) (2,294) (2,385) (2,471) (2,604) (2,748) (2,890) (3,019) (3,133) (3,248) (3,363) (3,525)
% Revenue: % (82.5%) (83.5%) (84.1%) (84.6%) (85.1%) (85.5%) (86.0%) (86.5%) (86.0%) (85.0%) (84.0%) (83.0%) (83.0%)
Operating Income (EBIT): $M 440 443 433 434 432 440 446 450 491 553 619 689 722
Operating Margin: % 17.5% 16.5% 15.9% 15.4% 14.9% 14.5% 14.0% 13.5% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Growth Rate: % N/A 0.7% (2.3%) 0.2% (0.5%) 1.9% 1.4% 0.8% 9.2% 12.5% 11.9% 11.4% 4.8%
(+/-) Change in Working Capital: $M 12 61 (37) (6) (8) (24) (31) (48) (55) (52) (49) (46) (49)
% Change in Revenue: % N/A 34.9% (94.9%) (6.6%) (9.8%) (17.0%) (20.4%) (33.1%) (32.0%) (29.5%) (27.0%) (25.0%) (25.0%)
% Revenue: % 0.5% 2.3% (1.4%) (0.2%) (0.3%) (0.8%) (1.0%) (1.4%) (1.6%) (1.4%) (1.3%) (1.1%) (1.1%)
(-) Recurring Maintenance CapEx: $M (171) (226) (227) (237) (247) (262) (278) (294) (305) (317) (329) (344) (361)
% Revenue: % (6.8%) (8.4%) (8.3%) (8.4%) (8.5%) (8.6%) (8.7%) (8.8%) (8.7%) (8.6%) (8.5%) (8.5%) (8.5%)
(-) Acquisitions, Net of Cash Acquired: $M - (1,410) - - (250) (275) (300) (300) (263) (203) (193) (203) (212)
% Revenue: % 0.0% (52.5%) 0.0% 0.0% (8.6%) (9.0%) (9.4%) (9.0%) (7.5%) (5.5%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (5.0%)
(-) Developments & Redevelopments: $M - - - (50) (60) (70) (80) (90) (91) (88) (85) (81) (85)
% Revenue: % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (1.8%) (2.1%) (2.3%) (2.5%) (2.7%) (2.6%) (2.4%) (2.2%) (2.0%) (2.0%)
(-) Proceeds from Asset Dispositions: $M 15 1,866 - 150 150 150 150 150 147 144 139 134 127
% Revenue: % 0.6% 69.4% 0.0% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow: $M $ 544 $ 1,021 $ 469 $ 607 $ 348 $ 312 $ 285 $ 269 $ 349 $ 486 $ 578 $ 651 $ 673
Growth Rate: % N/A 87.7% (54.1%) 29.4% (42.7%) (10.2%) (8.8%) (5.7%) 29.9% 39.3% 18.8% 12.6% 3.5%
Discount Period: # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
WACC: % 6.48% 6.48% 6.48% 6.48% 6.48% 6.48% 6.48% 6.48% 6.48% 6.48%
WACC - Cumulative Discount Factor: # 0.939 0.882 0.828 0.778 0.731 0.686 0.644 0.605 0.568 0.534
PV of Unlevered FCF: $M $ 570 $ 307 $ 259 $ 222 $ 196 $ 240 $ 313 $ 349 $ 370 $ 359
EBITDA: $M $ 688 $ 730 $ 733 $ 750 $ 763 $ 793 $ 823 $ 851 $ 916 $ 1,003 $ 1,094 $ 1,191 $ 1,253
Growth Rate: % N/A 6.1% 0.4% 2.3% 1.8% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4% 7.7% 9.4% 9.1% 8.9% 5.2%
Stock Issuances: $M - 18 135 166 552 179 158 154 158 165
% Total Capital Costs: % 0.0% 4.5% 29.5% 32.6% 103.4% 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% 32.0% 31.0%
Growth Rate: % N/A N/A 638.2% 22.7% 233.4% (67.5%) (12.0%) (2.2%) 2.5% 4.0%
Cost of Equity: % 9.46% 9.46% 9.46% 9.46% 9.46% 9.46% 9.46% 9.46% 9.46% 9.46%
Cost of Equity - Cumulative Discount Factor: # 0.914 0.835 0.762 0.696 0.636 0.581 0.531 0.485 0.443 0.405
Maximum $ 13,743 $ 17,224 $ 17,993 11.5% 76.1% $ 1,424 $ 1,470 $ 1,455 $ 1,257 $ 1,279 $ 1,251 37.2% 38.8%
75th Percentile 3,495 4,621 5,053 9.6% 39.1% 387 418 437 294 339 356 5.3% 6.3%
Median $ 3,092 $ 4,229 $ 4,291 9.0% 33.7% $ 355 $ 351 $ 360 $ 263 $ 254 $ 253 2.3% 3.9%
25th Percentile 2,287 3,455 3,335 8.5% 29.7% 287 281 296 207 195 205 1.5% 1.0%
Minimum 795 2,897 3,031 7.5% 25.3% 252 231 236 130 137 143 (5.3%) (4.0%)
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. $ 5,487 $ 8,367 $ 10,413 8.0% 32.8% $ 733 $ 750 $ 763 $ 482 $ 659 $ 675 1.8% 2.3%
Maximum $ 13,743 $ 17,224 $ 17,993 11.5% 76.1% 15.7 x 14.0 x 14.0 x 15.3 x 13.7 x 14.2 x
75th Percentile 3,495 4,621 5,053 9.6% 39.1% 12.7 x 13.2 x 13.1 x 12.4 x 12.9 x 12.6 x
Median $ 3,092 $ 4,229 $ 4,291 9.0% 33.7% 12.1 x 12.4 x 12.1 x 11.8 x 11.4 x 11.3 x
25th Percentile 2,287 3,455 3,335 8.5% 29.7% 11.1 x 11.2 x 10.6 x 9.8 x 10.4 x 9.6 x
Minimum 795 2,897 3,031 7.5% 25.3% 10.5 x 9.9 x 7.2 x 6.1 x 5.8 x 5.6 x
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. $ 5,487 $ 8,367 $ 10,413 8.0% 32.8% 11.4 x 11.2 x 11.0 x 11.4 x 8.3 x 8.1 x