Thayer Australia's Defence Minister in The United States

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Australia’s Defence Minister in
the United States
July 12, 2022
During his first visit to the United States as Australian Defense Minister, Richard
Marles delivered a speech at CSIS:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/marles-warns-australia-us-must-
step-up-to-avoid-catastrophic-failure-in-indo-pacific-20220712-p5b0vb.html
https://www.northernbeachesreview.com.au/story/7815951/marles-urges-greater-
indo-pacific-step-up/?cs=7
Questions:
Q1. Do you think the risks that Minister Marles spoke about are real?
ANSWER: The previous government in Australia under Prime Minister Scott Morrison
found that the future forecasts in the most recent Defence White Paper 2021 were
already taking place and at a much faster rate than anticipated.
China has a quantitative military edge over the United States in terms of warships,
submarines, aircraft and ground troops. China is poised to launch its third aircraft
carrier and will continue to build more eventually surpassing the United States. And
China is rapidly building up its nuclear armed ballistic missile capability.
From Australia’s point of view, China launches more warships in a year than the entire
Royal Australian Navy. Chinese aircraft now have the capability to strike Australia from
a distance.
China is also rapidly closing the U.S. qualitative edge in terms of cyber, hyper-sonics,
artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other cutting edge military
technologies.
China has subject Australia to economic coercions for nearly three years, slapping
tariffs and other economic sanctions on $20 billion worth of Australian exports. The
Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy and People’s Liberation Army Air Force have
become more aggressive in their encounters with Royal Australian Air Force maritime
patrol aircraft (Poseidon P-8A).
The rules based post-World War II international order is being challenged by the
Russia-China partnership “without limits.” China abets Russian aggression in the
Ukraine and the two countries combine to pressure Japan. A major strategic
uncertainty is what lessons does Xi Jinping draw from the Western response to the
war in Ukraine for his calculations to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.
2
The response by Defence Minister Richard Marles is to develop a credible

conventional deterrent, primarily by acquiring nuclear powered conventional
submarines, but also including sovereign development of long-range strategic strike
weapon systems and enhancing Australia’s alliance relations with the United States
and the United Kingdom.
Q2. What moves China could take to strengthen its claim in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: China has already completed its militarization of the South China Sea by
creating forward operating bases on seven artificial islands. China maintains a
persistent presence of naval warships, Coast Guard vessels, armed maritime militia
and fishing fleets. China is continually strengthening its ability to control the South
China Sea through lawfare and grey zone operations.
China could strengthen its control by further militarizing the Paracel Islands,
undermining the U.S.-Philippine alliance, militarizing Scarborough Shoal, exploiting
U.S. domestic array, and undermining U.S. alliance relations more generally.
Q3. Do you think in reality Australia can take stronger actions to keep peace in the
South China Sea or greater Indo-Pacific than the actions of the previous government?
ANSWER: The previous government lost the May 2022 election before it could fully
pursue the objectives of the Quad and AUKUS. The current Labor Government of
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, in the view of veteran commentator Paul Kelly, has
overturned twenty-five years of centre-left national security policy to embrace the
alliance with the United States. It is clear that the Defence Minister Marles will use the
upcoming Force Posture Review to restructure the Australian Defence Force to
confront the strategic realities outlined in Marles’ speech to the Center for Strategic
and International Studies.
Australia will take stronger action in concert with the United States, Japan, United
Kingdom, France, India, other likeminded states, such as members of NATO, and
Indonesia. Australia will partner with other members of the Pacific Islands Forum to
take charge of regional security in the South Pacific.
In a short answer to question three: Yes, there will be “continuity plus” in Australia’s
defence posture regarding security in the Indo-Pacific.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Australia’s Defence Minister in the United

States,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 12, 2022. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

The response by Defence Minister Richard Marles is to develop a credible

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Australia’s Defence Minister in the United

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