Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

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Energy
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Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for

Pakistan (2015e2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis
Nayyar Hussain Mirjat a, *, Muhammad Aslam Uqaili a, Khanji Harijan b,
Gordhan Das Walasai c, Md Alam Hossain Mondal d, Hasret Sahin e
a
Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan
b
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan
c
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science & Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan
d
Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 Eye Street, NW, Washington DC, 20005, USA
e
Technology Faculty, Energy Systems Engineering, Gazi University, Teknikokullar, 06500, Ankara, Turkey

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Pakistan is facing electricity crises owing to lack of integrated energy planning, reliance on imported
Received 3 January 2018 fuels for power generation, and poor governance. This situation has challenged governments for over a
Received in revised form decade to address these crises. However, despite various conformist planning and policy initiatives, the
18 September 2018
balance between demand and supply of electricity is yet to be achieved. In this study, Long-range Energy
Accepted 2 October 2018
Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan's LEAP modeling framework for the
Available online 3 October 2018
period 2015e2050. Following demand forecast, four supply side scenarios; Reference (REF), Renewable
Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC)
Keywords:
Electricity crises
are enacted considering resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO2 emissions. The model
Electricity demand and supply results estimate the demand forecast of 1706.3 TWh in 2050, at an annual average growth rate of 8.35%,
Energy and power policy which is 19 times higher than the base year demand. On the supply side, RET scenario, although capital-
LEAP intensive earlier in the modeling period, is found to be the sustainable electricity generation path fol-
National climate change policy lowed by EEC scenario with the lower demand of 1373.2 TWh and minimum Net Present Value (NPV) at
Pakistan an aggregate discount rate of 6%. Conclusion section of the paper provides the recommendations devised
from this study results.
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction year 2006 can be traced way back in the 1990s when ambitious
power policies were announced by the various governments and
The electricity crises of Pakistan are reflective of failed energy thereby seeking investment from the private sector [2,3]. Most of
planning and policy regime of the country alongside poor gover- the power policies developed then were without any formal plan-
nance in the sector. The situation is so much grave that at the ning studies undertaken using energy modeling tools [2]. It is
moment shortage of electricity is not the only problem to be tackled despite the fact that several modeling tools are successfully utilized
but other issues like expensive electricity, the circular debt of the globally for devising energy and power policies. Various developing
energy sector, and higher Transmission and Distribution (T&D) countries such as; Bangladesh China, Crete, India, Greece, Ghana,
losses hold the true face of Pakistan's power sector. Moreover, Turkey, Nigeria, and others have addressed critical energy issues by
despite being ranked seventh among most vulnerable countries to assisting effective policy formulation using these tools [4]. In the
the climate change, Government of Pakistan (GoP) is still ambig- contemporary literature too, several studies on energy modeling
uous to undertake implementation of appropriately developed tools are undertaken for various countries as summarised in Table 1
environment and climate change policy [1]. [5e25].
The electricity crises of the country which surfaced during the However, there is a dearth of such studies undertaken in
Pakistan. A summary of limited relevant studies of Pakistan, which
utilized energy modeling tools, is given in Table 2 [26e29]. It also
* Corresponding author.
provides the scope and considerations covered or otherwise in
E-mail address: [email protected] (N.H. Mirjat). these past studies and appropriately addressed in this study. This

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.012
0360-5442/© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526 513

Table 1
Various studies undertaken using energy modeling tools [5e25].

Study Energy Model Tool Focus of Study Country

[5] ENPEP BALANCE Electric Power Options in Argentina Argentina

[6] Turkey energy and environmental review Turkey
[7] Long-Term GHG Emissions Outlook Greece
[8] Sustainable energy future India
[9] LEAP Sustainable power planning Crete
[10] An integrated framework to support electricity planning. Portugal
[11] energy scenarios for the future e with a focus on the electricity production system Greek
[12] Integrated Resource Planning for Energy System Iran
[13] Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications in Electricity Sector Panama
[14] Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems Magnolia
[15] MESSAGE Assessment of Role of Nuclear Power and other electricity generation options Indonesia
[16] Energy Supply, Demand and Environmental Analysis India
[17] Long-term energy supply strategy development Syria
[18] Energy Sector Development for 2010e2050 Malaysia
[19] A long-term strategy for electricity generation-Analysis of cost and carbon footprint. Malaysia
[20] Modeling energy supply options for electricity generations in Tanzania Tanzania
[21] MARKAL/TIMES China's future sustainable energy development China
[22] Renewable energy resources and technologies Assessment and Policy Framework Nigeria
[23] Ranking and selection of power expansion alternative South Africa
[24] Low carbon energy pathways Taiwan
[25] Evaluation of future energy-supply strategies for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) power sector UAE

study, therefore, includes the maximum considerations pertaining provide policy makers with an insight into the system impacts with
the electricity sector of Pakistan and further emphasizes a future respect to pursuing these pathways or otherwise; elaborate details
direction for a sustainable energy system of Pakistan by recom- on resources utilization, conversion processes, cost parameters, and
mending a comprehensive IEP effort to devise rational energy CO2 emissions under each scenario. The four supply-side scenario
policy and keeping such endeavours live to incorporate future alternatives of the study are; Reference (REF), Renewable Energy
adjustments. Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Effi-
In terms of energy economic dynamics, Pakistan's power sector ciency and Conservation (EEC). Analyzing the impacts of each of
is also facing the worst ever financial crises of its history with a these scenarios from a policy perspective help to examines the
soaring circular debt of USD 7.6 billion [30]. The demand-supply interactions that occur when several technologies under a single
gap of electricity had alone during the year 2010 caused a loss of policy are considered in different time horizons. As such, this study
2.5% in the overall GDP leading to unemployment of more than half helps in answering the following key policy questions.
million workers in the industrial sector [26]. One of the reasons for
the increase in the electricity demand and thus the demand-supply - What is the future electricity demand of the country and how it
gap is increased population, rapid urbanization, improved living can be satisfied in the medium to long-term?
standards and rural electrification [27]. However, the plans and - What could be future electricity supply pathways for the
policies of the past could not deliver to meet the ever-increasing county?
electricity demand. As such, it is realized that meeting electricity - How would each of future electricity supply pathway impact
demand is mutually related to Integrated Energy Planning (IEP), cost and environment?
and this planning is almost ineffective without using energy
modeling tools and appropriate implementation of planning and LEAP model used in this study is one of the widely used energy
policy narrative derived from IEP effort. modeling tool by various organizations in more than 190 countries
Globally, following the oil crises of the 1970's, policymakers had including government departments. LEAP modeling effort requires
not only emphasized on identifying reliable and efficient energy low initial data and have built-in “Technology and Environmental
sources but focus also shifted towards ensuring sustainable energy Database” for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation assessment [2].
pathways for the future [31]. As such, energy scenario planning has The results of this study provide the estimated electricity de-
become a most popular approach to project future demands and mand forecast and insight into future options for electricity gen-
alternate supply pathways to meet the demand. However, it is eration for the period 2015e2050. Based on the results of this
essential to understand that effective energy planning does not study, it is recommended to undertake IEP development by the
conclude at developing a model of any specific energy system. government for policy analysis towards devising appropriate pro-
Instead, it should assess and project various future energy patterns grams and projects to achieve sustainable supplies for meeting the
and suggest policy options by keeping model alive for a rational future demand.
policy formulation to achieve sustainability. So far, Pakistan lacks in This paper in section 2 provides analyses of the power sector of
the appropriate application of such planning paradigm and policy Pakistan. The key power and climate change policies of the country
formulation. Meanwhile, segregated energy planning and diversi- are briefly discussed in section 3. In section 4 LEAP model meth-
fied policies at various levels have pushed the country into severe odology for demand forecast and scenario development, as well as
energy crises. the main assumptions and data input to the model, has been dis-
This study focusing the electricity supply sector as one of the cussed in detail. The model results pertaining demand forecast,
important modules of IEP undertakes the electricity demand fore- sensitivity analysis and scenario development are presented in
cast and simulate four supply side scenarios using the LEAP model section 5. The detailed discussion of the results is given in section 6,
over the study period 2015e2050. The electricity demand pro- and finally, the conclusion and policy recommendations based on
jections are linked with the demographic and socio-economic pa- this study are summarised in section 7 of the paper.
rameters. The supply side scenarios depict the future pathways to
514 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

2. Electricity demand-supply situation and exiting policies of generation of 106.97 TWh in 2015 is broadly dominated by oil and
Pakistan followed by hydropower, natural gas, nuclear, wind, bagasse, and
coal respectively as shown in Fig. 2 [39].
The electricity demand-supply situation of Pakistan alongside It is unfortunate that county's renewable energy resources so far
relevant energy policies are briefly discussed as follows. could not be harnessed to any optimal level even though prices of
renewable energy technologies have considerably been reducing
2.1. Electricity demand situation over the years. Table 4 [39] shows the total installed capacity of
various entities of Pakistan's power sector which is mainly domi-
Pakistan has a population of 207.774 million as per recent nated by thermal power generation by the private sector Inde-
census of 2017. This census also reveals that 36.34% of the total pendent Power Producers (IPPs).
population lives in urban areas, while 63.66% is living in remotely A detailed electricity flowchart of Pakistan is shown in Fig. 3
located rural areas [32]. The total number of households in the which illustrates the overview of primary energy resources con-
country are 32.2 million, and an average household has 6.4 mem- sumption for electricity generation in ktoe (Thousand tons of oil
bers [32]. The rise in population has also caused the increase in equivalent), total TWh generated, T&D losses, and TWh electricity
electricity demand. However, the electricity supply side growth has consumption by different consumer groups for the year 2015.
had been at a snail's pace. There are five major electricity consumer The electricity supply situation of Pakistan is not only indicative
groups in the country, which are: domestic; industrial, commercial, of poor energy mix for the power generation but at the same time
agricultural and others such as bulk supplies, street lighting, and shows lack of expansion in the supply side capacities as well as
other electricity consuming public services offered by the govern- efforts to reduce the T&D losses to an acceptable level. The cause of
ment. The domestic sector leads all other sectors with 40.8 TWh such a situation is the absence of the effective planning, applicable
(45%) electricity consumption followed by industrial, commercial, policy, and well-defined framework to ensure sustainable elec-
agricultural, and others which consumed 24.9 TWh (28%), 6.4 TWh tricity supplies.
(7%), 8 TWh (9%) and 10.2 TWh (11%) of electricity respectively in
the year 2015 [33]. It is significant to note that with the beginning of 2.3. Pakistan's power and climate change policies
the 21st century, domestic sector alone has posted average annual
growth of 5.94% in the electricity consumption, whereas total The integrated energy planning and policy is indispensable for
consumption by all the consumer groups has increased at an annual the overall development and economic growth of developing
average growth rate of 4.54% [33]. countries like Pakistan. Unfortunately, Pakistan does not have an
Further, the number of electricity consumers in domestic sectors integrated energy and power policy even after seventy years of its
has also grown at the rate of 2% per annum followed by industrial, independence. The never-ending restructuring and complexity of
commercial, agricultural and others by 2.7%, 3.17%, 4.29%, and 2% government organizations with vague roles and responsibilities
respectively [34]. Table 3 [35] shows sector-wise growth in the keeps Pakistan away from developing an integrated energy and
number of electricity consumers over the past five years. power policy towards achieving sustainable development. At the
The rapid growth in the number of electricity consumers and same time, there are varied and disintegrated policies announced
thus in the electricity demand has been hardly met until 2006. As by GoP such as; petroleum policy, power policy, renewable energy
such, in the following years, there has had been electricity shortfall policy, energy conservation and efficiency policy and climate
causing load shedding across the country. The patterns of electricity change policy. There is hardly any integration and uniformity in
supply and demand from 2006 to 2016 with a historical account of these policy documents announced from time to time. The power
load shedding in the country are shown in Fig. 1 [36]. policies of Pakistan are developed and implemented mainly by
NTDC manages the schedules and patterns of load shedding Power Division of newly created MOE. GoP in 1994 announced first-
when a gap exists between demand and supply. Subsequently, a ever power policy, followed by various policy endeavours
load management plan is devised in accordance with the genera- announced in the next 20 years. However, none of the policies
tion capacity. announced so far is based on formal energy planning studies un-
It is, therefore, apparent that although electricity consumption dertaken from time to time except that demand forecasts are
and thus demand in the country has grown over the past many generally used to estimate future fuel supplies alone. Thus, due to
years, yet the electricity consumption per capita is only 452 kWh erroneous preferences, lack of modeling exercises and imple-
which is around one-fourth of world average [28]. Further, around mentation issues, Pakistan could not witness substantial develop-
51 million of the total population of the country has no access to ment across various sectors of the economy as per set targets [2]. A
electricity mainly due to limited generation capability and mini- summary of various energy and power policies announced so far by
mum expansion in T&D network alongside higher T&D losses [37]. the GoP with key features, focus, and targets of each policy are
As such, Pakistan needs to develop an integrated energy planning given in Table 5 [2].
and implementation framework to address the electricity shortfall In addition to various shortcomings of energy and power pol-
and enhance access to the commodity. icies announced by GoP, the environmental concerns of power
generation were rarely given any importance in these policies.
2.2. Electricity supply situation Although, in February 2013 GoP had also announced the first-ever
National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) [40]. This policy focuses on
Pakistan has limited indigenous reserves of conventional energy ensuring water, food, and energy security by integrating climate
resources (oil and gas), as such, need to rely on import of these change issues into other inter-related national policies. Further, the
resources to meet its energy demand. However, there are abundant emphasis has been laid on strengthening inter-ministerial deci-
resources of coal reserves estimated to be 175 billion tons in the sion-making and coordination mechanism on climate change.
Thar desert of Sindh province which seek greater attention for Nonetheless, the fate of NCCP like other policies is only contained to
harnessing through efficient technologies [38]. The renewable en- be a document with no implementation in sight.
ergy resources of the country are even in greater abundance and In the meantime, Pakistan has also submitted ambitious Inten-
could form a substantial share in the overall energy mix for the ded Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) as per the Paris
power generation. However, Pakistan's energy mix for electricity Agreement of 2015. As per submitted INDCs, the estimated GHG
Table 2
Summary of past relevant studies and contribution of this study for Pakistan's electricity sector [26e29].

Studies Studies Demand Supply Side Recommended Demand Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Supply Side Consideration
Period Projection Scenarios Scenario Consideration of Demand Forecast
(TWh)
GDP Consumers Population Energy CPEC Vision 50% Renewable CCS & IGCC INDCS0 under
Policy 2013 2025 Share Technologies Paris Agreement

Usama et al. 2011e2030 312 (2030) -BAU GF ✓ ✘ ✓ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘

-New Coal
-Green Future
Rehman et al. 2014e2035 172 (2035) e e ✓ ✘ ✘ ✘ e e e e e e
Hanan et al. 2014e2035 303.7 (2035) -GP REN ✓ ✘ ✓ ✘ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✘ ✘ ✘

N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

-DSM
-REN
Maryam et al. 2008e2030 368 (2030) -BAU HR and ORR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘
-ORR
-HR
-HNR
This Study 2015e2050 1706.1 -REF Combined ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
(2018) (2050) -RET EEC and REN
-CCM
-EEC

Acronyms.
BAU¼ Business as Usual HR¼ Hydro Resources.
NC¼ New Coal HNR¼ Hydro, Nuclear and other Renewable resources.
GF ¼ Green Future REF ¼ Reference.
GP ¼ Government Policy RET ¼ Renewable Energy Technology.
DSM ¼ Demand Side Management CCM¼ Clean Coal Maximum.
REN ¼ Renewable Energy EEC ¼ Energy Efficiency and Conservation.
ORR¼ Other Renewable Resources.
HR¼ Hydro Resources.
HNR¼ Hydro, Nuclear and other Renewable resources.
REF ¼ Reference.
RET ¼ Renewable Energy Technology.
CCM¼ Clean Coal Maximum.
EEC ¼ Energy Efficiency and Conservation.

515
516 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

Table 3
Number of electric consumers in the five demand sectors of Pakistan (million) [35].

Year Domestic Industrial Commercial Agricultural Others Total

2000 10.783 0.224 2.001 0.176 0.009 13.193

2005 13.888 0.233 2.378 0.202 0.010 16.714
2011 18.954 0.293 2.873 0.282 0.013 22.419
2015 21.843 0.335 3.162 0.320 0.014 25.676

emissions of Pakistan in 2030 would be 1603 Mt.CO2 equivalent,

which is further expected to increase for many decades before any 0.14% 1%
decrease in the emissions. A reduction of up to 20% in the projected 5%
emission figures for the target year 2030 would require a total in-
vestment of approximately USD 40 billion at the current price. 37%
Further, Pakistan's adaptation needs ranges between USD 7 to USD 29.86%
14 billion/annum during this period [41].
In the light of above, energy and power policies of Pakistan
based on IEP should not only ensure energy security but at the same
time address the environmental concerns from electricity
generation. 27%

Oil Natural Gas Hydro Coal Wind Nuclear

3. Methodology and data

This exploratory study focuses on the electricity supply system Fig. 2. Electricity generated by the source 2015 [39].
in Pakistan and using LEAP model forecasts electricity demand for
the period 2015e2050 as well as develop four supply side sce-
narios. LEAP is a user-friendly energy modeling tool which is Table 4
globally used for the analysis of energy policy and assessment of Installed capacity of supply entity in Pakistan-2015 [39].
climate change mitigation. LEAP facilitates a scenario-based Entity Installed capacity (MW)
modeling approach to track energy resource extraction, produc-
GENCOs 4900
tion, and consumption in all sectors of the economy. Lower initial PPIB 8766
data requirement of the LEAP model and built-in technology and K-Electric 1875
environment database suits development of Pakistan's LEAP WAPDA (Hydel) 7030
modeling framework. PAEC 750
Total 23,321

3.1. LEAP modeling framework for Pakistan

environmental emissions. As such, following Pakistan's electricity
LEAP with its energy accounting capabilities matches demand demand forecast, four supply side scenarios have been developed
with supply side electricity generation and also provides the sys- in this study. While developing Pakistan LEAP modeling frame-
tem impacts including electricity generation by sources, the work, 2015 has been set as the base year and 2050 as the end year.
requirement of installed capacity, cost parameters and

30,000

25,000

20,000
MW

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year

Installed Generation Capacity Peak Demand Deficit

Fig. 1. Electricity demand and supply gap [36].

 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526 517

NPV.

3.2. Main assumptions and data input in model

The electricity demand projections are globally linked with the

demographic and socio-economic parameters. As such, for this
modeling exercise, the most reliable studies and reports were
reviewed to develop a consistent set of data such as; overall GDP,
sector-wise GDP, GDP growth rates, sector-wise electricity con-
sumption, number of consumers, population, and households.
Table 6 [35,42] summaries the key assumptions and model input
parameters and their growth rates for the demand module.
The overall electricity demand is based on the demand of the
five consumer groups; domestic, industrial, commercial, agricul-
tural, and others. In this context, electricity demand data of the last
25 years (1991e2015) have also been analyzed and used as input in
the demand module. The summary of electricity demand data of
the last 25 years for each consumer group is shown in Fig. 6.
The electricity consumers growth rate and electricity intensity
data have been taken from NTDC and NEPRA reports [36]. The
process efficiency of renewable technologies (solar and wind) has
been assumed to be 100%. However, the electricity generated from
the renewable energy technologies is considered less than its actual
potential due to seasonal variations. The capital cost, operation, and
maintenance cost (fixed and variable) of different technologies are
taken from Energy Information Administration [43], the USA report
Fig. 3. Electricity flowchart of Pakistan-2015. of 2013 [43]. However, no report of EIA or International Energy
Agency (IEA) pertaining the cost data of power plants is available
for the based year of this study. Thus, the capital costs for all
The first supply side scenario is Reference (REF) scenario which is
existing plants, operation and maintenance costs (fixed and vari-
an energy pathway as per GoP's current plans and policies. The
able) are calculated from EIA 2013 report for the year 2015 as per
Renewable Energy Technologies (RET) pathways envisage
the method of inflation [43]. Exogenous capacity and historical
maximum penetration of renewable energy and Clean Coal
production of each power plant are also added in the LEAP model
Maximum (CCM) scenario foresee the use of efficient technologies
which were also taken from NTDC and NEPRA reports [36]. The
for power generation. The fourth scenario is named as Energy Ef-
exogenous inputs and endogenous variables which are used in the
ficiency and Conservation (EEC) scenario which focuses on energy
Pakistan LEAP model are given in Table 7.
conservation objectives, thereby reducing electricity consumption
The industrial and agricultural GDP growth rates of 5.81% and
and thus reduced demand. In each of these scenarios, in addition to
2.73% and that of overall GDP growth of 5% has been considered
the projection of generation and installed capacity requirements
during the study period [44]. Since the GDP data for the other
CO2 emission and NPV under different discount rates have been
consumer groups is not available, as such, for modeling, these
estimated as well.
sectors are linked to the overall GDP growth rate.
In the LEAP, the input data set consists of various modules such
Table 8 [37,45e47] summarizes the detailed data, for the base
as key assumptions, demand, transformation, and resources. The
year 2015, pertaining power generation, installed generation ca-
key assumption module includes Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
pacity, the amount of fuel consumed, electricity generated per
GDP growth, total population, population growth, number of con-
source alongside fixed and variable costs as well as efficiency and
sumers and their growth alongside other relevant parameters. The
availability in percentages utilized in the LEAP model of this study.
demand module is divided into five sectors; domestic, industrial,
The LEAP model low data requirements and modest structure,
commercial, agricultural, and others which are linked to de-
on the one hand, are advantageous to commence the modeling
mographic and socio-economic parameters to forecast electricity
exercise but on the other hand, have limitation pertaining decision
demand. Fig. 4 illustrate the electricity demand forecast structure
making which is mainly relying on modeler preferences. As such,
of the LEAP model.
training and expertise in energy modeling is a pre-requisite to work
In the transformation module, energy transformed from energy
on such bottom-up energy models. Nevertheless, this and similar
sources as input to energy product is modeled using a range of
modeling efforts on any scale for a developing country like Pakistan
electricity generation technologies which includes those in opera-
should be viewed as significant groundwork to move forward for
tion during the base year and other anticipated in government's
more IEP level studies using various modeling tools.
plans as well as considered in accordance with the emerging trends
of the generation technologies in the future. Fig. 5 shows the
4. Scenario development
electricity generation module for Pakistan in the LEAP model.
For each technology type, dispatch rule, process efficiency, his-
In the electricity planning, the supply side scenarios depict the
torical production, exogenous capacity, lifetime, the retirement of
future pathways which provide policy makers with an insight into
the plant, maximum availability, capital cost, O&M, and variable
the system impacts with respect to pursuing these pathways or
costs are considered. The total cost associated with the electricity
otherwise; elaborate details on resources utilization, provide cost
transformation module in the LEAP model is a function of total cost,
parameters, and GHG emissions under each scenario. This approach
unit price of energy source input, fixed and variable costs of elec-
allows assessing the impacts of individual policy and examines the
tricity generation of relevant technologies expressed in terms of
interactions that occur when multiple pathways under a policy are
518 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

Table 5
Various energy/power policies by the Government of Pakistan [2].

Year Policy Focus Institutional Development/ Key Features and Targets

Restructuring

1994 Power Policy Introduced Independent Power Development of Private  Fixed “capacity price” payments to
Producers (IPPS) and emphasized on Power and Infrastructure IPPs regardless of electricity
energy conservation Board (PPIB) generation and immunity from
various taxes and surcharges
 ~60% share of hydropower in
electricity generation reduced to
~25%
1995 Hydropower Policy 1994 Power Policy rectified for e Despite extended incentives, the policy
Hydropower Generation (Fiscal could not attract private sector
incentives and exemption from certain investments in the hydropower sector
taxes and duties were extended) as per policy objectives.
1998 Policy for New Private Amended/Revised 1994 Policy with  The process of Like its precedents, this policy also
Independent Power Projects more rationalization, i.e., introducing restructuring of public continued the exemption from certain
competition/bidding. giant WAPDA moved taxes and duties such as income tax,
further customs duties, and sales tax, for
 Earlier in 1997, importing equipment by IPPs favour
independent power thermal power generation. However,
sector regulator NEPRA contrary to 1994 and 1995, the policy
established. emphasis protecting consumers' and
investors' interests and enabling a
competitive environment in the
market.
2002 Power Generation Policy This policy encouraged investment Establishment of AEDB in The long terms target of power
from private, public-private and public- 2003 generation of. 20,000 MW by 2015 was
sector organizations with features of set with the introduction of competitive
fuel supply and power purchase tariffs; an Energy Purchase Price (EPP)
agreements and a Capacity Purchase Price (CPP)
2006 Development of Renewable Focused on the development of Small The administrative control The policy introduced exemptions from
Energy for Power Generation Hydropower, Wind, and Solar and of AEDB was transferred to duties and taxes for importing required
Biofuel Technologies. the Ministry of Water and machinery of renewable energy plants.
Power A target of 5% renewable energy share
in the overall energy mix of power
generation was also set.
2008 National policy for Power This policy envisaged co-generation e The policy offered a levelized tariff for
Cogeneration by Sugar Industry projects based on bagasse produced in the co-generation plants with a capacity
the sugar plants of at least 60 MW.
2010e2012 National Energy Policy This Policy focused on Energy Introduction of Rental This policy emphasized on
Conservation and proposed short-term Power Plants (RPPs) rehabilitation of existing public-sector
and long-term plans for generation of power plants
electricity.
2013 National Power Policy Focused on the development of e The policy envisaged upfront tariff and
electricity generation and energy competitive bidding to lower the cost of
conservation projects to overcome the the electricity.
energy crisis.
2015 Power Generation Policy Offering enhanced incentives and Upgrading of Climate The policy encouraged the Public-
simplified processing for the investors Change cabinet division to Private Partnership (PPP) by offering
in order to narrow the demand and Ministry of Climate change incentives
supply gap utilizing the indigenous
resources mainly with safeguarding the
environment and taking all the
stakeholders on board.

Fig. 4. Electricity demand forecast structure of LEAP model.

Fig. 5. Electricity generation module for Pakistan in LEAP model.
 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526 519

Table 6
Key Assumptions [35,42].

Key Assumptions Input Parameters Growth % Reference

Population 191.71 Million 1.92 Pakistan economic survey-2015

GDP 257.71 Billion USD 5 NTDC
Industrial GDP 52.31 Billion USD 5.81 NTDC
Agricultural GDP 53.86 Billion USD 2.73 NTDC
Households 30.43 Million As per expression “Population ¼ Household x Household size,”
Thus, household increase with an increase in Population

100

90
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Domestic Industrial Commercial Agricultural Others

Fig. 6. Electricity consumption of Pakistan for the period 1991e2015 [35].

Table 7 under consideration in different time horizons.

Model input parameters. In summary, the key purpose of scenario development is to
Exogenous input Endogenous variables analyze:
GDP growth trend Electricity demand sector wise
Electric consumers growth (domestic, industry, commercial, agricultural  Possible future events by considering possible alternative
and others) outcomes.
Fuel cost Electricity Intensity  Assessment of energy systems under various assumptions about
Lifetime of each technology Generation Capacity (Oil, gas combined cycle
the economy
And Open cycle, hydro run of river
and dam wind, solar)  Planning through modeling the interaction between population,
economy, emissions and energy resources

Table 8
Pakistan's power generation technologies (2015) [37,45e50].

Power Plants Capacity (MW) Fuel Consumed Generation Capital Cost Fixed cost Variable cost Efficiency Maximum Availability
(TOE) (GWh) (Million$/MW) (thousand $/MW) ($/MWh) (%) (%)

Oil 9212 8,800,432 38690 1.16 26.21 8.523 38.8 88

Nuclear 787 e 4699 5.71 96.27 2.208 34.1 85
Coal 150 67,638 102 3 32.18 4.613 33.0 75
Solar 100 e 25 4 25.48 0 100 18
Wind 256 e 300 2 40.82 0 100 35
Biomass 83 e 319 4 109.01 5.428 35 80
Large hydro 3961 40,606a 22280 1 13.16 4.2 86.5 53
Run of river 2334 10699 7 94.11 7.88 86.5 53
Gas combined cycle 1833.8 6,847,894 9982.72 1 15.86 3.375 54 70
Gas open cycle 4898.2 21213.72 0.698 7.27 10.702 32.7 70
Coal- based IGCC e e e 3.5 87.5 7 45 75
Coal- based CCS e e e 4.2 105 7.7 34 75
Total 23,615 15,756,570 108,310.44 e e e e e
a
(Auxiliary Consumption).
520 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

Table 9
Summary of scenario alternative of this study.

Scenario Objective Main Resources

Reference (REF) In this scenario, the government's current plan and policy is followed. As per the government plan and policy.
Renewable Energy Under this scenario, the renewable energy resources and technologies Renewable energy resources, hydro, solar, wind, and biomass
Technologies (RET) are preferred.
Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) Under this scenario share of clean coal is maximum and is preferred. Indigenous coal, renewables energy, natural gas and nuclear.
Energy Efficiency and Under this scenario, the efficiency improvement and conservation Efficiency measures and conservation potential
Conservation (EEC) measures are considered.

In this study, four supply side scenarios have been developed to 50e70% of the emissions respectively. An effort has also been made
meet the demand forecast for the study period (2015e2050). A to take care of Pakistan's INDC submission in view of the Paris
summary description of the four scenarios of the study is given in Agreement for reduction of CO2 emissions to a level of 20% less than
Table 9. the base year in 2030 and 30% and 40% less than the base year in
More elaborate description of each of these four scenarios of this 2040 and 2050 respectively.
study follows as under:
4.4. Energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) scenario
4.1. Reference (REF) scenario
Efficient use of energy and its conservation is very important
REF scenario portrays the supply side pathway for the period since one unit of electricity saved at the user end reduces the need
2015e2050 as per policy and plans followed by the government for new capacity addition by two units. As such, efficient use of
under Pakistan Vision 2025 and National Power System Expansion energy can be achieved at less than one fifth the cost of the fresh
Plan (NPSEP) of 2011. Energy projects planned under China Pakistan capacity addition. The use of old and traditional technologies and
Economic Corridor (CPEC) project are also taken care of under this less efficient appliances elevates the consumption of electricity. EEC
scenario. It is expected that no major change in the on-going policy scenario is based on the assumption that use of modern technol-
regime will be made and development trends will continue. The ogies and efficient appliances as well energy conservation mea-
most important perspective of existing government plans is that of sures shall cause the reduced electricity demand. This assumption
not adding any new oil-based plants in future power generation is is supported by Asian Development Bank [50] study that energy-
also duly taken care of in this scenario. Moreover, the underlying saving potential in Pakistan is 25% in the domestic sector, 14.55%
fact that gas shortage is expected to get more severe in the study in the industrial sector, 23.86% in the commercial sector, 41.1% in
period which may elevate the energy crises is also considered [48]. the agriculture sector and 5.69% in others [50]. As such, efficiency
All these inputs are available maximum up to 2030, as such, the and conservation measures of this scenario are estimated to reduce
same trends are followed in the study for the remaining modeling electricity demand by 20% of the total forecasted demand under
period. reference scenario.

4.2. Renewable energy technologies (RET) scenario 5. Results

The vision of this energy pathway is to inject more share of Following sub-sections of the paper put forward the results of
renewable energy and introduce relevant technologies of hydro- this study viz-a-viz demand and supply-side projections with
power, solar, wind, and biomass-based system in Pakistan's overall associated techno-economic finding as well as CO2 emissions.
energy mix for power generation. This strategy shall reduce the
share of fossil fuels so that energy and economic security could be
5.1. Demand projections
attained. The estimated realizable potential of power generation
through solar PV and thermal technologies alone is six times the
The electricity demand projections from 2015 to 2050 under the
total installed capacity in the country [49]. A such, taking an opti-
reference scenario for each consumer group and overall are shown
mistic approach; the share of renewable energy resources has been
in Table 10. The estimated growth in electricity demand can be
increased gradually considering future technological developments
attributed to the rise in population and electricity consumers, rapid
and lowered prices so that these resources contribute around 50%
urbanization, improved living standards, rural electrification, and
in the overall energy mix for the power generation under this
stable GDP.
scenario.
The overall projected electricity demand of Pakistan in 2050 is
forecasted to be 1706.3 TWh which was only 90.4 TWh in 2015. As
4.3. Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) scenario
such, a growth 19 times higher than the base year demand with an
estimated annual average growth of 8.35% is projected. The existing
In Pakistan's electricity generation mix for 2015, the share of
coal is only 0.1% compared to the world's average of 41% [34,39].
This is despite the fact that country is blessed with world's 6th Table 10
largest coal reserves of 186 billion out of which 175.506 billion tons Sector-wise forecasted electricity demand (TWh).
of lignite is alone estimated in the Thar district of Sindh province Economic Sector 2015 2030 2035 2050
[39]. CCM addresses meeting electricity demand by a major share of
Domestic 40.8 141.8 212.2 667
indigenous coal by using clean coal technologies in this scenario. In Industrial 24.9 106.7 171.1 662.1
this regard, technologies such as Coal based Carbon Capture and Commercial 6.4 26.1 41.0 149.3
Storage (CCS) and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Agricultural 8 19.9 26.8 60
are also considered to lower the emissions. These technologies Others 10.2 35.6 53.3 167.7
Total 90.3 330.1 504.4 1706.3
(IGCC and CCS) have the potential to capture/reduce 85e90% and
 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526 521

Table 11 scenario, the projected electricity demand is estimated to be

Sector-wise forecasted number of electric consumers (Millions). 1373.2 TWh, which is 20% less than the demand forecasted under
Consumer Groups 2015 2030 2035 2050 the reference scenario.
Domestic 21.84 29.03 31.58 39.71
Industrial 0.34 0.49 0.56 0.78 5.1.1. Sensitivity analysis of demand forecast
Commercial 3.16 4.93 5.66 8.32 In this study Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is undertaken to deter-
Agricultural 0.32 0.59 0.72 1.27
Others 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03
mine the robustness of the LEAP model demand forecast results.
Total 25.67 35.06 38.54 50.11 The SA helps in understanding that on varying certain input pa-
rameters, how it impacts the overall on the result? The SA of the
electricity demand forecast of this study, as such, evaluates the
official electricity demand forecast by NTDC is until 2035 wherein a impacts of imposed variations on the inputs parameters pertaining
demand of 687.517 TWh from all the consumer groups is projected population, GDP and number of consumers on the results as follows
[34]. Some other researchers, Gul and Qureshi [29] and Perwez, under.
Sohail [26] have also forecasted electricity demand of 368 TWh and
312 TWh respectively during the year 2030. As such, these re- 5.1.1.1. Varying the population growth rate. Fig. 7 shows the in-
searcher's forecasted demand for 2030 is almost half of what has crease in electricity demand with varying population growth rates
been projected by NTDC during 2035. Similarly, Ishaque [28] has an at 1.9%, 2.1%, and 2.23% respectively. The population growth rate of
estimated electricity demand forecast for the year 2035 to be 1.9% has been taken from the Pakistan Economic Survey 2015, while
303.7 TWh in 2035 which is also almost half the NTDC forecast for a further increased population growth rate assumption of 2.12% and
the same period [28]. It is, therefore, noted that electricity demand 2.23% as expected shows further increase in demand forecast for
forecasts by NTDC are generally exorbitant thereby considering the study period.
higher growth rates of the economy which have hardly been close
to the factual figures. 5.1.1.2. Varying the GDP growth rate. Fig. 8 shows the forecasted
The demand forecast for this study for the years 2030 and 2035, electricity demand at different GDP growth rates of 4.32%, 5%, and
is 330.1 TWh and 504.4 TWh respectively which is not only
commensurate with other researchers forecasted estimates but
well below the NTDC forecast.
It is evident from the base year (2015) demand that each con-
sumer group, domestic, industrial, commercial, agricultural and
others have share of 45.1%, 27.6%, 7.1%, 8.9%, and 11.3% respectively
in the overall demand which is forecasted to be 39.1%, 38.8%, 8.7%,
3.5%, and 9.8% respectively in the end year 2050. This study fore-
cast, as such, estimate that demand from the domestic and indus-
trial consumer shall be competitively higher than other consumer
groups with substantial growth in the economy. This fact can also
be verified by the projected number of electricity consumers which
shall significantly increase during the forecast period as shown in
Table 11.
Since REF, RET and CCM scenarios are driven by similar demand-
side assumptions. Thus demand forecast for these three scenarios is Fig. 8. Sensitivity Analysis of electricity demand forecast under different GDP growth
same; 1706.3 TWh for the year 2050. However, in the case of EEC rates.

Fig. 7. Sensitivity Analysis of electricity demand forecast under different population growth rates.
522 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

end up to be 0% in 2035 and so on as per existing policies of the

government in order to reduce the import bill of the country. The
share of large hydropower is 20.6% in 2015 which is anticipated to
decrease at a level of 13.3% in 2050. Similarly, the share of run of the
river which is 9.9% in 2015 shall be only 4.4% in 2050. As such, the
overall reduced share of the hydropower plants by the year 2050
shall be substantiated by various other fuels and technologies. The
share of solar, wind and biomass in the base year is around 0%, 1%,
and 0.3% respectively which is projected to be 10.1%, 8.1%, and 3.9%
respectively in 2050. Similarly, the share of natural gas open cycle
power plant is 19.6% in the base year which shall be 0% in the year
2035 and so on as per existing policies of the government so as to
divert natural gas to other sectors of the economy such as industries
Fig. 9. Sensitivity Analysis of electricity demand forecast under different Number of and fertilizer units. The share of natural gas combined cycle (NGCC)
Consumer (NC) growth rates.
power plants and coal based units were 9.2%, 0.1% respectively in
2015 which are projected to be 29.8%, 26.3% respectively in 2050.
The NGCC, therefore, would form a major share of 29.8% for the
5.5% respectively. The GDP growth rate of 4.32% and 5% have taken
electricity generation under REF scenario during 2050 followed by
from NTDC reports while a 5.5% GDP growth rate is an optimistic
the coal based plants which shall generate 26.3% of total electricity
assumption. It is evident from Fig. 8 that variation in GDP growth
in 2050.
rate would impact the electricity demand. At a lower GDP, the
In the RET scenario, the share of solar PV, wind and biomass
demand would be sufficiently low compared to the demand fore-
resources has been projected to be 14.52%, 15.12%, 4.09% respec-
cast at optimistically assumed higher GDP growth rate.
tively in 2050. In addition, the generation share from hydropower
and RoR plants is projected to be 14.11% and 5.53% respectively. The
5.1.1.3. Varying the number of consumer growth rate. Fig. 9 shows
overall share of renewable energy, inclusive of hydropower, which
the forecasted demand at a different growth rate for varying total
was 33.6% in the base year 2015 is projected to be 53.4% in 2050 in
number of electricity consumers. The growth rates of 14.16% and
this scenario.
14.65% are taken from the NTDC report, while 15% is an assumption
In the CCM scenario, with no generation of electricity from oil
considered under SA. The results under varying growth rate of
and open cycle natural gas plants from 2035 onward, the Integrated
number consumer are also significantly important.
Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and Carbon Capture and Stor-
It is concluded from the SA of demand forecast that population,
age (CCS) technologies have been considered for the coal based
GDP, and the number of consumers are independent parameters
power generation. The Coal based IGCC and CCS technologies have
which directly affect the electricity demand and thus must be taken
45% and 34% efficiencies respectively and are certainly better of
into consideration while taking important policy decisions.
than old technologies used in coal power plants with lower effi-
ciencies. Accordingly, with these technologies, the share of coal is
5.2. Supply-side scenarios
about 23.46% in the year 2050 which shall be major contributing
fuel for electricity generation in this scenario. The second major fuel
The supply-side projections of each of four scenarios (REF, RET,
for electricity generation in this scenario is hydropower with a
CCM, and EEC) of this study comprises of the generation to meet the
share of 12.53% by 2050. Similarly, NGCC share comprises 11.96% of
demand, the installed capacity to ensure the required generation,
the overall electricity generation by 2050. The share of solar, wind
the estimated CO2 emissions and finally the cost analysis in terms of
and biomass for electricity generation under this scenario is pro-
NPV.
jected to be 11.6%, 9.84%, and 2.6% respectively in 2050. Finally, the
share of nuclear, RoR, Coal based IGCC and Coal based CCS have
5.2.1. Generation been projected to be 4%, 5.27%, 11.17%, and 7.45% respectively in
The electricity generation under all the scenarios for the study overall fuel mix for electricity generation in 2050.
period is projected by the model using various fuel and technology In the EEC scenario, the electricity demand (1373.2 TWh) is 20%
mix in order to meet the demand. Fig. 10 shows the electricity less as compared to other scenarios in the end year of the study
generation under all the scenarios of this study. In REF scenario, the period. The lower electricity demand requires less electricity gen-
share of oil in electricity generation mix is 35.7% in 2015 which will eration which will help to address the electricity deficit and ulti-
mately saving huge capital and other costs alongside reduced
emissions. In this scenario, the share of coal for the electricity
generation is around 28.45% until the end year which makes it
leading fuel in the electricity generation by 2050. The second major
share in electricity generation is projected to be from NGCC which
shall form 26.14% by 2050. Similarly, hydropower share in elec-
tricity generation is projected to be 13.58% in the year 2050 which
shall make it the third largest contributing fuel for the electricity
generation. The share of solar, wind and biomass is projected to be
11.7%, 9.6%, and 3.9% respectively in 2050. The shares of nuclear and
RoR are estimated to be 3.1% and 3.45% respectively in 2050 under
this scenario.

5.2.2. Installed capacity

The installed capacities of various types of power plants to
Fig. 10. Electricity generation in all scenarios during study period. ensure the required generation in each of the four scenarios are
 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526 523

capacities that divergent set of policy narratives, within different

scenarios, would require specific arrangements for the resources
and technologies to meet the projected demand.

5.2.3. CO2 emissions

The future additions of thermal power plant capacities pose a
great challenge to contain CO2 emission to a minimum level. As per
this study, in the year 2015, the CO2 emissions from power plants of
the country were 40.5 million tons, and these are projected to reach
657.17 million tons in 2050 under REF scenario. Fig. 12 shows CO2
emissions from the power plants under the REF and alternative
scenarios of this study.
Fig. 11. Installed capacity in all scenarios during study period. In RET scenario, with more than 50% generation from renewable
resources, the CO2 emissions are projected to be minimum and less
than the all other scenarios of the study. In this scenario, the CO2
shown in Fig. 11. emissions in the year 2050 are around 400.76 million tons which
The major installed capacities of power generation would come are 1.64 times less than the REF scenario for the same period.
from NGCC and coal-based electricity generation with 114.4 GW The CO2 emissions in CCM scenario are also less than the REF
(26.86%) and 94 GW (22.07%) respectively, in the end, the year 2050 and EEC scenarios due to the utilization of Coal based IGCC and Coal
under the reference scenario. This shall be followed by the wind based CCS technologies. In this scenario, the CO2 emissions are
based plants with a total 62.3 GW (14.6%) capacity during the end projected to be 410 million tons of in 2050 which is significantly
year. In line with government's vision 2025, the share of nuclear less than REF and EEC scenarios. Further, in the CCM scenario, this
power installed capacity which is 0.78 GW of the total capacity in study following Pak-INDC report submitted under the Paris
2015 is projected to be 12.8 GW by 2050. The installed capacity of Agreement ensured a reduction of 20% CO2 emissions by 2030 from
solar, hydropower and biomass are only 0.1 GW, 3.961 GW, the emission level of 2015. This trend has been further continued
0.083 MW respectively in the base year which is optimistically with 30% reduced CO2 emission by 2040, and 40% by the year 2050
projected to be 54.4 GW, 55.7 GW, 10.3 GW respectively in 2050. It is from the base year CO2 emissions level. However, this optimistic
projected under this scenario that solar, wind and biomass will reduction in CO2 emission is only subject to required investments
together generate around 22.1% of overall country's electricity in and the addition of substantial capacity of renewable energy plants
2050. following the year 2020 and onwards. The CO2 emissions in EEC
As regards the RET scenario, the documented potential of wind scenario are 18% less than REF scenario since the reduction in de-
and solar is estimated to be 346 GW and 2900 GW while another of mand requires less electricity generation and thus lower emissions.
60 GW and 3e5 GW capacity of hydropower and biomass has been
considered respectively. Accordingly, in this scenario, the installed 5.2.4. Cost analysis
capacity of solar, wind and biomass which are 0.1 GW, 0.3 GW, and In this study, the total system cost is expressed in term of NPV
0.1 GW respectively in the base year shall substantially increase to which include capital cost, fixed O&M, and variable O&M costs
78 GW (16.8%), 116 GW (25%), and 11 GW (2.37%) respectively by discounted at the rates of 4%, 6%, 8%, 10% during the study period for
the end year 2050. The capacities of NGCC, hydropower, coal, RoR each of the scenario as shown in Fig. 13.
and nuclear based plant are projected to be 115.9 GW, 59 GW, EEC scenario has been estimated with lowest NPV compared to
40.2 GW, 27.5 GW, and 16.3 GW respectively during the end year. REF, RET and CCM scenarios at all the discount rates. The NPV at the
The overall share of renewable energy (inclusive of hydropower) in discount rate of 6% which is close to policy rate of State Bank of
the installed capacity under this is estimated to be 62.83% in the Pakistan (5.75%), the EEC scenario has the lowest value due to a
year 2050. significant saving on account of lower installed capacity require-
The total installed capacity in CCM scenario is 416.2 GW which is ment. The total savings estimated under EEC scenario are, as such,
9.73 GW less than the REF scenario and 47.7 GW less than the RET estimated to be USD 49.33 billion when compared to NPV of REF
scenario in 2050 owing to improved efficiency of Coal based IGCC scenario, $105 billion saving when compared to NPV of RET sce-
and Coal based CCS based plants. In this scenario, the coal has a nario and a saving of USD 74.43 billion when compared to NPV of
greater share in the overall installed capacity of around 84 GW CCM scenario at the discount rate of 6%.
(20.18%) and is followed by wind energy based plants of 75.5 GW
(18.14%) and then solar with an installed capacity of 62.3 GW
(14.96%) in the year 2050. The capacities of hydropower, NGCC, Coal
based IGCC, RoR, Coal based CCS, nuclear and biomass based plants
are estimated to be 52.4 GW, 45.9 GW, 30 GW, 26.2 GW, 20 GW,
12.9 GW, and 7 GW respectively in the year 2050.
In the EEC scenario, the total installed capacity is 348.56 GW
which is 77.38 GW less than the REF, and also less than other
alternative scenarios owing to lower electricity demand and thus
reduced generation requirement under this scenario. The installed
capacity of coal based plants is projected to be 82 GW (23.52%)
followed by NGCC 80.7 GW (23.14%) and then wind based plants of
59.3 GW (17%) in this scenario. The installed capacities of solar,
hydropower, RoR, nuclear and biomass based power units in this
scenario are estimated to be 50.6 GW, 45.7 GW, 13.8 GW, 8 GW, and
8.4 GW respectively.
It is evident from the results of the generation and installed Fig. 12. CO2 emissions in all scenarios during study period.
524 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526

RET and CCM scenarios are driven by similar demand-side as-

sumptions, therefore, demand forecast for these scenarios is same;
1706.3 TWh for the end year 2050. The most feasible EEC, though
very suitable, yet require serious efforts from the Government to
ensure the promotion of energy efficient devices and capacity
building towards the energy conservation. EEC scenario imple-
mentation would, therefore, also require certain investments to-
wards energy efficiency and conservation. In this context, the
domestic sector, being leading electricity consumer group in the
base and end year followed by the industrial sector are two
important candidates to undertake therein energy efficiency and
conservation measures. Despite such initiative and given the past
performance on EEC measures in the country, it is challenging to
achieve and maintain energy efficiency and conservation although
it can even address electricity shortfall and climate change issues in
Fig. 13. NPV at different discount rates for all scenarios of the study. short-term as evident from experience of many developing coun-
tries. However, as revealed from the results of this study, the
implementation of EEC scenario would be financially suitable as it
The comparison of NPV of all the scenarios suggests that EEC
is estimated that every unit of energy saved would reduce the need
scenario is the least-cost electricity generation pathway at all the for the capacity addition by 2e2.5 times. On the other hand, one
discount rates. The CCM scenario too has lower NPV compared to
key shortcoming of EEC scenario is higher CO2 emissions of 539.2
the RET scenario since capacity requirements of CCM scenario are
million tons which are just next to REF scenario and make it an
less than the RET scenario. However, CCM scenario has higher NPV
unfitting option in term of meeting the national climate change
at all the discount rates when compared with the REF scenario
targets and adhering the international treaties. In terms of CO2
since the advanced technologies of CCM scenario shall be capital
emissions, the RET scenario has the lowest emission of 400.76
intensive.
million tons with around 53% generation from indigenous renew-
The NPV at all discount rates for REF scenario is less than all
able energy resources. As such, this scenario may not only help to
other scenarios except that of EEC scenario since mostly conven-
reduce CO2 emissions but also help meeting the submitted INDC's
tional technologies are used for power generation in the REF sce-
under Paris Agreement as well as achieving Sustainable Develop-
nario with no focus on reducing the CO2 emission.
ment Goals (SDGs), However, the NPV of RET scenario at a discount
rate of 6% is highest of other scenarios of the study. This is mainly
6. Discussion owing to higher costs of renewable energy conversion technologies,
which are now in declining trend, and this scenario too requiring
This exploratory study attempts to provide a judicious descrip- more installed capacity due to lower efficiency of these plants and
tion of a possible future state of the electricity demand-supply seasonal variations.
situation of Pakistan. Supply side scenarios are not merely a pre- Given the above situation, a combination of EEC and RET sce-
diction; rather, each of four scenarios is one alternative image of nario suits most the economic and environmental requirements of
what the future can hold for Pakistan's power sector in terms of Pakistan. This arrangement can provide Pakistan with an oppor-
generation, installed capacity, CO2 emissions, and cost. The sum- tunity to benefit from Carbon offsetting thus earning the carbon
mary results of the study demonstrate that: credit which is increasingly a popular way of tackling the climate
change. Carbon offset purchaser aims to compensate for e or
 The forecasted electricity demand for the study period is modest “offset” e their emissions by paying someone else to reduce GHG
and comparable with other studies emissions elsewhere. If GoP fails to penetrate more renewable
 REF scenario fails completely to meet electricity demand by energy potential in the national grid, another alternate pathway
sustainable means of electricity generation, and in providing a given is CCM scenario, which is also cost-intensive due to use of
cost-effective response to meet INDCs. advanced technologies and conventional fuels. Coal based IGCC and
 RET and CCM scenario although cost intensive but efficiently CCS technologies proposed in this scenario shall greatly help in
reduces CO2 emissions by 1.64 and 1.6 times respectively less reducing CO2 emissions thus making Pakistan capable of meeting
than the REF scenario for the same period. INDCs s and may also benefit from Carbon offsetting. As regards the
 However, RET scenario would require more installed capacity REF scenario, following this path Pakistan will further move to-
due to lower capacity factor and availability issues whereas, wards un-sustainability and slower economic growth due to un-
CCM requires less installed capacity due to improved efficiencies stable fossil fuel availability and varying prices in the international
of modern technologies. market and finally it will never be possible to meet any INDCs or
 EEC scenario seems to be the most suitable pathway subject to SDGs under this scenario with highest projected CO2 emissions to
energy efficiency and conservation measures undertaken. As reach 657.17 million tons in 2050. As per NPV analysis, EEC scenario
such, this on scenario would require lower generation and will save 49.33 billion US dollars when compared to REF scenario,
installed capacity, therefore, lowered costs due to reduced 105 billion US dollars when compared to RET scenario and 74.43
demand. billion US dollars when compared to CCM scenario at a discount
 However, CO2 emissions under EEC scenario are higher than the rate of 6%.
RET and CCM scenario. In the light of the above discussion of results, it emerges that in
order to maintain sustainable electricity supplies to meet the de-
It is apparent that the EEC scenario seems to perform well due to mand with optimal investment and reduced emissions, Pakistan
anticipated utilization of energy efficient appliances, modern should undertake energy efficiency and conservation measures as
technologies and energy conservation measures thus electricity well as increase renewable energy share in the overall energy mix
demand is reduced by 20% than other three scenarios. Since REF, of the power generation in the long run.
 N.H. Mirjat et al. / Energy 165 (2018) 512e526 525

7. Conclusions  Provinces should be tasked to develop and achieve the energy

efficiency and conservation targets.
This exploratory study focused on forecasting and balancing  Implementation of labeling energy-saving codes for electric
long-term electricity demand-supply situation by taking into ac- appliances should be ensured
count the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The  NEECA should be authorized to provide financial incentives to
LEAP model results of this study are comprehensible, internally energy conserving consumers.
consistent and reasonable description of a possible future state of  Promote energy audits through energy service companies.
the electricity demand-supply situation of Pakistan. Supply-side  Raise awareness among the public to save energy on a regular
scenarios are not merely a prediction; rather, each of four sce- basis.
narios is one alternative image of what the future can hold for
Pakistan's power sector in terms of generation, installed capacity, It is anticipated that considering the above recommendation
CO2 emissions, and cost perspective. The forecasted electricity de- and undertaking the IEP development endeavour towards power
mand for the study period is modest and comparable with other policy formulation would yield programs and projects which can
studies. The overall projected electricity demand of Pakistan in bring energy security for Pakistan.
2050 has been forecasted to be 1706.3 TWh which was only
90.4 TWh in 2015. As such, a growth 19 times higher than the base Acknowledgment
year demand with an estimated annual average growth of 8.35%
over the study period. In case of EEC scenario, the projected elec- The authors highly acknowledge Pakistan Strategy Support
tricity demand is estimated to be 1373.2 TWh, which is 20% less Program (PSSP) of USAID under Grant No.831 and ICT Endowment
than the demand forecasted under REF scenario. for Sustainable Development Scheme of Mehran University of En-
All the supply side scenarios were developed to meet the elec- gineering & Technology, Jamshoro for their financial and technical
tricity demand forecast for both REF (1706.3 TWh) and EEC sce- support for completing this research work.
narios (1373.2 TWh) in 2050. As such, EEC scenario required less
installed capacity requirement of 354.35 GW followed by CCM, REF,
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