Risk and related topics chapter one

CHAPTER ONE
RISK AND RELATED TOPICS
1.1 Meaning of Risk:
There is no single definition of risk. Economists, behavioral scientists, risk
theorists, statisticians and actuaries each have their own concept of risk.
However, risk traditionally has been defined in terms of uncertainty. Based
on this concept, risk is defined as uncertainty concerning the occurrence of a
loss. For example, the risk of being killed in a car accident is present because
uncertainty is present. The risk of lung cancer for smokers is present
because uncertainty is present. And the risk of flunking a college course is
present because uncertainty is present.
Although risk is defined as uncertainty, employees in the insurance industry
often use the term risk to identify the property or life being insured. Thus, in
the insurance industry, it is common to hear statements such as “that driver
is a poor risk” or “that building is an unacceptable risk.”
Writers, particularly in the USA have produced a number of definitions of
risk. These are usually accompanied by lengthy arguments to support the
particular view they put forward. Consider the following definitions:
 Risk is the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence.
 Risk is a combination of hazards.
 Risk is unpredictability – the tendency that actual results may differ
from predicted results.
 Risk is uncertainty of loss.
 Risk is possibility of loss.
Theorists have no agreed in universal definition but there are common
elements in the definition i.e. Indeterminacy and loss
Indeterminacy: - means the outcome must be in question. When risk is said
to exist there must be at least two possible outcomes. If we know for certain
that a loss occurs, there is no risk.
Loss: - at least one of the possible outcomes is undesirable may be loss.

Admas university Page 1

Risk and related topics chapter one

*IF THE OUTCOME IS ONE AND KNOWN IN ADVANCE THEREFORE, THERE

IS NO RISK.
Finally, when risk is defined as uncertainty, some authors make a careful
distinction between risk and uncertainty.
1.2 Risks versus Uncertainty:
Certainty is lack of doubt. In Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary, one
meaning of the term “certainty” is “a state of being free from doubt,” a
definition will suit to the study of risk management. The antonym of
certainty is “uncertainty” which is “doubt about our ability to predict the future
outcome of current actions.” Clearly, the term “uncertainty describes a state of
mind. Uncertainty arises when an individual perceives that outcomes cannot
be known with certainty.”
Uncertainty arises when an individual perceives risk. Uncertainty is a
subjective concept, so it cannot be measured directly. Since uncertainty is a
state of mine, it varies across individuals.
For complex activities, such as participating in a business venture, some
persons are very cautious, others are more aggressive. Although risk
aversion explains some of the reluctance to participate, the level of risk
perceived by individuals also plays a key role. The perceived level of risk
depends on information that an individual can use to evaluate the chance of
outcomes and, perhaps, on the individual’s ability to evaluate this
information. The level and type of information on the nature of a risky activity
have an important effect on uncertainty.
Levels of Uncertainty:
Level of Uncertainty Characteristics Examples
None (Certainty) Outcomes can be Physical laws, natural
predicted with sciences.
precision.
Level 1 Games of chance,
(Objective Outcomes are Cards, Dies.

Admas university Page 2

Risk and related topics chapter one

Uncertainty) identified and

probabilities are
known. Fire, automobile
Level 2 accident, many
(Subjective Outcomes are investments.
Uncertainty) identified but
probabilities are Space exploration,
unknown. genetic research.
Level 3
Outcomes are not fully
identifies and
probabilities are
unknown.
The level of uncertainty arising from a given type of risk can depend on the
entity facing the risk; for example, an insurer or a governmental entity may
regard the risk of earthquake as being at level 2, while the individual may
regard the earthquake as being a at level 3. This difference in perspective may
be a consequence of an ability to estimate the likelihood of outcomes.
1.3 Risks versus Probability (Chance of Loss):
Probability is closely related to the concept of risk. But it would be
distinguished from risk. Risk is the level of possibility that an action lead to a
loss/undesirable outcome. But Probability (Chance of Loss) used to
measure /estimation of how likely the event will occur.
Risk (especially Objective risk) is the relative variation of actual loss from
expected loss. The chance of loss may be identical for two different groups but
objective risk may be quite different. For example, assume that a property
insurer has 10,000 homes insured in Addis Ababa and 10,000 homes insured
in Nazareth and that the chance of loss in each city is 1%. Thus, on average,
100 homes should burn annually in each city. However, if the annual
variation in losses ranges from 75 to 125 in Addis Ababa, but only from 90 to

Admas university Page 3

Risk and related topics chapter one

110 in Nazareth, objective risk is greater in Addis Ababa even though the
chance of loss in both cities is the same.
Probability has both objective and subjective aspects.
Objective Probability:
Objective probability refers to the long-run relative frequency of an event based
on the assumptions of an infinite number of observations and of no change in
the underlying conditions. Objective probabilities can be determined in two
ways. First, they can be determined by deductive reasoning. These
probabilities are called a priori probabilities. For example: tossing a fair coin.
Second, objective probabilities can be determined by inductive reasoning, For
example, the probability that a person age 21 will dies before age 26 cannot be
logically deduced. However, by a careful analysis of past mortality experience,
life insurers can estimate the probability of death an sell a five year term life
insurance policy issued at age 21.
Subjective Probability:
Subject probability is the individual’s personal estimate of chance of loss.
Subjective probability need not coincide with objective probability. For
example, people who buy a lottery ticket on their birthday may believe it is
their lucky day and overestimate the small chance of winning. A wide variety
of factors can influence subjective probability, including a person’s age,
gender intelligence, education, and the use of alcohol.
1.4 RISK, PERIL AND HAZARD
The terms peril and hazard should not be confused with the concept of risk
discussed earlier.
Peril:
Peril is defined as the cause of loss. If your house burns because of a fire, the
peril, or cause of loss, is the fire. If your car is damaged in a collision with
another car, collision is the peril, or cause of loss. Common perils that cause
property damage included fire, lightning, windstorm, hail, tornadoes, earth
quakes, theft and robbery.

Admas university Page 4

Risk and related topics chapter one

Hazard:
A hazard is a condition that creates or increases the chance of loss. For
example one of the perils that can cause loss to a house is fire. The fire can be
cause while we go out of home leaving the cylinder switched on in the kitchen.
Using the cylinder properly will not cause a loss; rather poor handling does.it
is possible for something to be both a peril and hazard. For instance, sickness
is a peril causing economic loss, but it is also a hazard that increases the
chance of loss from the peril of earlier death. There are four major types of
hazards:
Physical hazard
Mortal hazard
Morale hazard
Legal hazard
Physical hazard: A physical hazard is a physical condition that increases the
chance of loss. Examples of physical hazards include icy roads that increase
the chance of a car accident, defective wiring in a building that increases the
increases of fire, and a defective lock on door that increases the chance of
theft.
Moral hazards: Moral hazard is dishonesty or character defects in an
individual that increase the frequency or severity of loss. Examples of moral
hazard include faking an accident to collect from an insurer, submitting a
fraudulent claim, inflating the amount of a claim, and intentionally burning
unsold merchandise that is insured.
Morale hazard: Some insurance authors draw a subtle distinction between
moral hazard and morale hazard. Moral hazard refers to dishonest by an
insured that increases the frequency or severity of loss. Morale hazard is
carelessness or indifference to a loss because of existence of insurance. Some
insureds are careless or indifferent to a loss because they have insurance.
Examples of morale hazard include leaving car keys in an unlocked car, which
increase the chance of theft; leaving a door unlocked that allows a robber to

Admas university Page 5

Risk and related topics chapter one

enter; and changing lanes suddenly on a congested interstate highway

without signaling. Careless acts like these increase the chance of loss.
Legal hazard: Legal hazard refers to characteristics of the legal system or
regulatory environment that increase the frequency or severity of losses.
Examples include adverse jury verdicts or large damage awards in liability
lawsuits, statutes that require insurers to include coverage for certain benefits
in health insurance plans, such as coverage for alcoholism; and regulatory
action by state insurance departments that restrict the ability of insurers to
withdraw from the state because of poor underwriting results.
1.5 CLASSIFICATION OF RISK:
Risk can be classified into several distinct categories. The major categories
are as follows:
 Objective and subjective Risks.
 Pure and Speculative Risks.
 Fundamental and Particular Risks.
 Financial and non-financial
 Static and dynamic Risks:
 Objective and subjective Risk:
Objective risk (Statistical Risk)
Objective risk is defined as the relative variation of actual loss from expected
loss. For example, assume that a property insurer has 10,000 houses
insured over a long period and, on average, 1 %, or 100 houses, burn each
year. However, it would be rare for exactly 100 houses to burn each year. In
some years, as few as 90 houses may burn; in other years, as many as 110
houses, may burn. Thus, there is a variation of 10 houses from the expected
number of 100, or a variation of 10%. This relative variation of actual loss
from expected loss is known as Objective Risk.
Objective risk declines as the number of exposures increases. Objective risk
varies inversely with the square root of the number of cases under observation.
Objective risk can be statistically calculated by some measure of dispersion,

Admas university Page 6

Risk and related topics chapter one

such as the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation. Because

objective risk can be measured, it is an extremely useful concept for an
insurer or a corporate risk manager. As the number of exposures increases,
an insurer can predict its future loss experience more accurately because it
can rely on the law of large number. The law of large numbers states that the
number of exposure units increases, the more closely the actual loss
experience will approach the expected loss experience. For example: as the
number of houses under observation increases, the greater is the degree of
accuracy in predicating the proportion of houses that will burn.
Subjective Risk:
Subjective risk is defined as uncertainty based on a person’s mental condition
or state of mind. For example, a customer who was drinking heavily in a bar
may foolishly attempt to drive home. The driver may be uncertain whether he
will arrive home safely without being arrested by the police for drunk driving.
This mental uncertainty is called subjective risk.
Impact of subjective risk varies depending on the individual. Two persons in
the same situation can have a different perception of risk, and their behavior
may be altered accordingly. If an individual experiences great mental
uncertainty concerning the occurrence of a loss, that person’s behavior may
be affected. High subjective risk often results in conservative and prudent
behavior, while low subjective risk may result in less conservative behavior.
For example a motorist previously arrested for drunk driving is aware that he
has consumed too much alcohol. The driver may then compensate for the
mental uncertainty by getting someone else to drive the car home or by taking
a taxi. Another driver in the same situation may perceive the risk of being
arrested as slight. This second driver may drive in a more careless and
reckless manner; a low subjective risk results in less conservative driving
behavior.

Admas university Page 7

Risk and related topics chapter one

 Pure and speculative risks

 Pure Risk: Pure risk is defined as a situation in which there are only the
possibilities of loss or not loss. The only possible outcomes are adverse (loss)
and neutral (no loss).For example a shop owner will suffer financial loss if the
shop is burnt in fire, but no gain if there is no fire. Examples of pure risk
include premature death, industrial accidents, terrible medical expenses, and
damage to property from fire, lightning, flood, or earthquake.
Types of pure risk:
The major types of pure risk that can create great financial insecurity include
 Personal Risks.
 Property Risks.
 Liability Risks.
Personal Risks:
Personal risks are risks that directly affect an individual. They involve the
possibility of the complete loss or reduction of earned income, extra expenses,
and the depletion of financial assets. There are four major personal risks.
Risk of premature death.
Risk of insufficient income during retirement.
Risk of poor health.
Risk of unemployment.
Risk of premature death:
Premature death is defined as the death of a household head with unfulfilled
financial obligations. These obligations can include dependents to support, a
mortgage to be paid off, or children to educate. If the surviving family
members receive an insufficient amount of replacement income from other
sources or have insufficient financial assets to replace the lost income, they
may be financially insecure.
Risk of insufficient income during the retirement:

Admas university Page 8

Risk and related topics chapter one

The major risk associated with old age is insufficient income during retirement.
The vast majority of workers in the world are retired before age 65. When
they retire, they lose their earned income. Unless they have sufficient
financial assets on which to draw, or have access to other sources of
retirement income, such at social security or a private pension, they will be
exposed to financial insecurity during retirement.
Risk of Poor Health:
Poor health is another important personal risk. The risk of poor health includes
both the payment of terrible medical bills and the loss of earned income.
Risk of Unemployment:
The risk of unemployment is another major threat to financial security.
Unemployment can result from business cycle downswings, technological and
structure changes in the economy, seasonal factors, and imperfections in the
labor market.
Property Risks:
Persons owning property are exposed to property risks – the risk of having
property damaged or lost from numerous causes. Real estate and personal
property can be damaged or destroy because of fire, lightning, tornadoes,
windstorms, and numerous other causes. There are two major types of loss
associated with the destruction or theft of property direct loss and indirect
loss or consequential loss.
Direct loss: A direct loss is defined as financial loss that results from the
physical damage, destruction, or theft of the property. For example, if you own
a hotel that is damaged by a fire, the physical damage to the hotel is known
as a direct loss.
Indirect loss: An indirect loss is a financial loss that results indirectly from the
occurrence of a direct physical damage or theft loss. Thus, in addition to the
physical damage loss, the hotel would lose profits for several months while
the hotel is being rebuilt. The loss of profits would be consequential loss.

Admas university Page 9

 Risk and related topics chapter one

Other examples of a consequential loss would be the loss of rents, the loss of
the use of building, and the loss of a local market.
Liability Risk:
Liability risks are another important type of pure risk that most persons
face. Under our legal system, you can be held legally liable if you do
something that result in bodily injury or property damage to someone else. A
court of law may order you to pay substantial damages to the person you
have injured.
 Speculative Risk: Speculative risk is defined as a situation in which either
profit or loss is possible. For example, if you purchase 100 shares of common
stock, you would profit if the price of stock increases but would loss if the
price declines. Other examples, of speculative risk include betting on horse
race, card games, investing in real estate, and going into business for your
self. In these situations, both profit and loss are possible.
Distinguish between pure and speculative risks:
 First, private insurers generally insure only pure risk. With certain
exceptions, speculative risk generally is not considered insurable, and other
techniques for managing with speculative risk must be used.
 Second, the law of large numbers can be applied more easily to pure
risks than to speculative risks. The law of large numbers is important
because it enables insurers to predict future loss experience.
In contrast, it is generally more difficult to apply the law of large numbers
to speculative risks to predict future loss experience. An exception is the
speculative risk of gambling where nightclub operators can apply the law of
large numbers in a most efficient manner.
 Finally, Society may benefit from a speculative risk even though a
loss occurs, but it is harmed if a pure risk is present and a loss occurs.
Example, a firm may develop new technology for producing low price
computers. As a result some competitors may be forced to bankruptcy.
Despite the bankruptcy, society benefits because the computers are

Admas university Page 10

Risk and related topics chapter one

produced at a low cost. However, society normally does not benefit when as
loss from a pure risk occurs, such as flood, or earth quake.

 Fundamental and Particular Risks

Fundamental Risk:
A fundamental risk is a risk that affects the entire economy or large numbers of
persons or groups within the economy. Examples include rapid inflation,
cyclical unemployment, and war because large numbers of individuals are
affected.
The risk of a natural disaster is another important risk. Hurricanes,
tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, and forest and grass fires can result in
billions of dollars of property damage and numerous deaths. More recently,
the risk of a terrorist attack is rapidly emerging as fundamental risk.
Particular Risk:
A particular risk is a risk that affects only individuals and not the entire
community. Examples include car thefts, gold thefts, bank robberies, and
dwelling fires. Only individuals experiencing such losses are affected, not the
entire economy.
 Financial and non-financial
In its broadest context, the term risk includes all situations in which there is
an exposure to adversity. In some case this adversely involves financial loss,
while in the others it does not. There are some elements of risk in every aspect
of human endeavor, and many of these risks have no financial consequences.
 Static and dynamic Risks:
Static risks
Static risks involve those losses that would occur even if there were no change
in the economy. We could hold consumer testes, output and income, and the
level of technology constant, some individuals would still suffer financial loss.
This loss arises from cause other than change in the economy. These risks are

Admas university Page 11

Risk and related topics chapter one

not source of gain for society. Examples includes uncertainty due to random
events such as fire, windstorm, or death, etc. static losses do involve either the
destruction of the asset or a change in its possession as a result of dishonesty
or human failure. These types of losses tend to occur with a degree of
regularity overtime and are generally predictable-which makes static risk more
suitable for treatment by insurances.
Dynamic risks
Dynamic risks are those resulting from change in the economy. Change in the
price level, consumer test, income and output and technology may cause
financial loss the member of society. Normally benefit the society over a long
run, since they are the results of adjustments to misallocation of resources.
Although they may affect a large number of individuals, dynamic risks are
generally considered less predictable than static risks, as they do not occurred
with any precise degree of regularity.
 BURDEN OF RISKS ON SOCIETY
When a house destroyed by a fire, or money is stolen, or a wage earner dies,
there is a financial loss. These losses are the primary burden of risks and the
primary reason that individuals attempt to avoid risk or alleviate its impact. In
addition to the losses themselves
 Large emergency fund
In the absence of insurance, individuals and business firms would have to
increase the size of their emergency fund in order to pay for unexpected losses.
(One greater danger of this approach is the possibility that a loss may occur
before a sufficient fund has been accumulated)
 Worry and fear
The uncertainty connected with risk usually produces a feeling of frustration
and mental unrest. This is perfectly true in the case of pure risk. Speculative
risk is attractive to many individuals.

 Loss of Certain Goods and Services

A second burden of risk is that society is deprived of certain goods and

Admas university Page 12

Risk and related topics chapter one

services. For example, because of the risk of a liability lawsuit, many

corporations have discontinued manufacturing certain products. Numerous
examples can be given. Some 250 companies in the world used to manufacture
childhood vaccines; today, only a few firms manufacture vaccines, due in part
to the threat of liability suits. Other firms have discontinued the manufacture
of certain products, including single-engine airplanes, asbestos products,
football helmets, silicon-gel breast implants, and certain birth control devices.
 RISK RELATED TO BUSINESS ACTIVITIES

The finance literature considers five types of risks that business organizations
face in the course of their normal operation. These are: business risk, financial
risk, interest rate risks, purchasing power risks, and market risks. Those are
briefly discussed below.

Business Risk - This is the risk associated with the physical operation of the
firm. Variations in the level of sales, costs, profits are likely to occur due to a
number of factors inherent in the economic environment. Business risk is
independent of the company’s financial structure.

Financial Risk - This is associated with debt financing. Borrowing results in

the payment of periodic interest charge and the payment principal upon
maturity. There is a risk of default by the company if operations are not
profitable. Other financial risks include; bankruptcy, stock price decline,
insolvency.
Interest Rate Risk - This is a risk resulting from changes in interest rates.
Changes in interest rates affect the prices of financial securities such as the
prices of bonds etc. for interest rate rise depresses bond prices and vice, versa.

Purchasing Power Risk - This risk arises under inflationary situations (general
price rise of goods and services) leading to a decline in the purchasing power of
the asset held.

Market Risk - Market risk is related to stock market. It refers to stock price
variability caused by market forces. It is the result of investors’ reactions to
real or psychological expectations. For example, some forecasts may convince
investors that the economy is heading towards a recession. The market index
would decline accordingly.

Admas university Page 13

Risk and related topics chapter one

“THERE IS NO TIME AND PLACE WHICH IS FREE FROM RISK, AND VERY
DIFFICULT TO AVOID IT, SO WHAT WOULD BE BETTER?”

“MANAGING”

Admas university Page 14