CAPEX 330

n 10
Growth rate of sales 10%
Sales (2016) 1,000
%COGS 68.88% Gross Profit Margin
Variable Operating c 10.0%
Other fixed cost 115
Tax rate 30.0%
NWC/Sales 25.0%
Discount rate (WACC 13.3%

Table: Depreciation
Year 1 2 3 4
Gross PPE 330 330 330 330
Depreciation 33 33 33 33
Acc Depreciation 33 66 99 132
Net PPE 297 264 231 198

Table: Networking capital

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
NWC 250 250.0 275.0 302.5
∆NWC 250 - 25.0 27.5

Table: Income Statement

Year 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales 1,000 1100 1210 1331
COGS 688.8 757.6 833.4 916.7
Operating cost 248.0 258.0 269.0 281.1
- Variable cost 100.0 110.0 121.0 133.1
- Other Fixed cost 115 115 115 115
- Depreciation Cost 33 33 33 33
EBIT 63.2 84.4 107.6 133.2
I 0 0 0 0
EBT 63.2417575047 84.3659 107.6 133.163
Tax 18.9725272514 25.3098 32.281 39.9488
EAT 44.2692302533 59.0562 75.322 93.2139

Table: Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
EBIT 63.2 84.4 107.6
EBIT(1-T) 44.2692 59.056 75.3218
DA 33 33 33
CAPEX 330
∆NWC 250 0 25 27.5
Salvage
PPE
NWC
FCF -580 77.2692 67.056 80.8218

NPV 0.00 >0

IRR 13.25%> 13.25%
Kết luận: Vì NPV>0 và IRR> 13.25%=> Dự án nên được đầu tư
Phân tích rủi ro
1) Phân tích điểm hòa vốn (Breakeven point)
Phân tích điểm hòa vốn đối với COGS
% COGS= 68.9%=> NPV=0
Do đó để NPV>0=> COGS<68.9%
Phân tích điểm hòa vốn đối với WACC
WACC= 15.436%=> NPV=0
Do đó, dự án này chỉ có thể thực hiện được nếu WACC< 15.436%
31.12%

5 6 7 8 9 10 $580K in
330 330 330 330 330 330 of 2015
$250K WC
33 33 33 33 33 33
Sales $1
165 198 231 264 297 330
growing 1
165 132 99 66 33 0 year plann
COGS m
Operating
2019 2020 depreciat
332.8 366.0 an annua
30.3 33.3

Dv: 1.000
2020
1464.1
 ###
294.4 Straight-l
146.4 PPE 10-ye
115 zero salva
33 30% tax
2016 - 20
161.3
25% of E
0
CAPEX $
161.279 zero in all
48.3837 Project e
112.895 Terminal c

2019 2020
133.2 161.3
93.2139 112.895
33 33

30.25 33.275

165
366.0
95.9639 643.645

đầu tư
15.436%
$580K initial investment at the end
of 2015
$250K WC and $330 PPE
Sales $1million in 2016
growing 10% annually throughout the 5-
year planning period
COGS margin 67.4%
Operating expenses before
depreciation are 10% of sales plus
an annual fixed $115K
Straight-line depreciation
PPE 10-year life
zero salvage value
30% tax rate
2016 - 2020 NWC requirements =
25% of Earthilizer’s sales
CAPEX $330K in 2015
zero in all future years
Project end = 2020
Terminal cash flow: $658,7701
CAPEX 330
n 10
Growth rate of sales 8%
Sales (2016) 1,000
%COGS 65.0%
Variable Operating cos 10.0%
Other fixed cost 115
Tax rate 30.0%
NWC/Sales 25.0%
Discount rate (WACC) 13.3%

Table: Depreciation
Year 1 2 3 4
Gross PPE 330 330 330 330
Depreciation 33 33 33 33
Acc Depreciation 33 66 99 132
Net PPE 297 264 231 198

Table: Networking capital

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
NWC 250 250.0 270.0 291.6
∆NWC 250 - 20.0 21.6

Table: Income Statement

Year 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales 1,000 1080 1166.4 1259.712
COGS 650.0 702.0 758.2 818.8
Operating cost 248.0 256.0 264.6 274.0
- Variable cost 100.0 108.0 116.6 126.0
- Other Fixed cost 115 115 115 115
- Depreciation Cost 33 33 33 33
EBIT 102.0 122.0 143.6 166.9
I 0 0 0 0
EBT 102 122 143.6 166.928
Tax 30.6 36.6 43.08 50.0784
EAT 71.4 85.4 100.52 116.8496

Table: Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
EBIT 102.0 122.0 143.6
EBIT(1-T) 71.4 85.4 100.52
DA 33 33 33
CAPEX 330
∆NWC 250 0 20 21.6
Salvage
PPE
NWC
FCF -580 104.4 98.4 111.92

NPV 90.40>0
IRR 17.75%> 13.25%
 5 6 7 8 9 10
330 330 330 330 330 330
33 33 33 33 33 33
165 198 231 264 297 330
165 132 99 66 33 0

2019 2020
314.9 340.1
23.3 25.2

Dv: 1.000
2020
1360.489
 884.3
284.0
136.0
115
33
192.1
0
192.1222
57.63667
134.4856

2019 2020
166.9 192.1
116.8496 134.4856
33 33

23.328 25.19424

165
340.1
126.5216 647.4136
CAPEX 330
n 10
Growth rate of sales 8%
Sales (2016) 1,000
%COGS 65.0%
Variable Operating cos 15.0%
Other fixed cost 115
Tax rate 30.0%
NWC/Sales 25.0%
Discount rate (WACC) 13.3%

Table: Depreciation
Year 1 2 3 4
Gross PPE 330 330 330 330
Depreciation 33 33 33 33
Acc Depreciation 33 66 99 132
Net PPE 297 264 231 198

Table: Networking capital

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
NWC 250 250.0 270.0 291.6
∆NWC 250 - 20.0 21.6

Table: Income Statement

Year 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales 1,000 1080 1166.4 1259.712
COGS 650.0 702.0 758.2 818.8
Operating cost 298.0 310.0 323.0 337.0
- Variable cost 150.0 162.0 175.0 189.0
- Other Fixed cost 115 115 115 115
- Depreciation Cost 33 33 33 33
EBIT 52.0 68.0 85.3 103.9
I 0 0 0 0
EBT 52 68 85.28 103.9424
Tax 15.6 20.4 25.584 31.18272
EAT 36.4 47.6 59.696 72.75968

Table: Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
EBIT 52.0 68.0 85.3
EBIT(1-T) 36.4 47.6 59.696
DA 33 33 33
CAPEX 330
∆NWC 250 0 20 21.6
Salvage
PPE
NWC
FCF -580 69.4 60.6 71.096

NPV -50.44>0
IRR 10.71%> 13.25%
 5 6 7 8 9 10
330 330 330 330 330 330
33 33 33 33 33 33
165 198 231 264 297 330
165 132 99 66 33 0

2019 2020
314.9 340.1
23.3 25.2

Dv: 1.000
2020
1360.489
 884.3
352.1
204.1
115
33
124.1
0
124.0978
37.22934
86.86845

2019 2020
103.9 124.1
72.75968 86.86845
33 33

23.328 25.19424

165
340.1
82.43168 599.7965
CAPEX 330
n 10
Growth rate of sales 8%
Sales (2016) 1,000
%COGS 65.0%
Variable Operating cos 15.0%
Other fixed cost 115
Tax rate 30.0%
NWC/Sales 25.0%
Discount rate (WACC) 12.0%

Table: Depreciation
Year 1 2 3 4
Gross PPE 330 330 330 330
Depreciation 33 33 33 33
Acc Depreciation 33 66 99 132
Net PPE 297 264 231 198

Table: Networking capital

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
NWC 250 250.0 270.0 291.6
∆NWC 250 - 20.0 21.6

Table: Income Statement

Year 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales 1,000 1080 1166.4 1259.712
COGS 650.0 702.0 758.2 818.8
Operating cost 298.0 310.0 323.0 337.0
- Variable cost 150.0 162.0 175.0 189.0
- Other Fixed cost 115 115 115 115
- Depreciation Cost 33 33 33 33
EBIT 52.0 68.0 85.3 103.9
I 0 0 0 0
EBT 52 68 85.28 103.9424
Tax 15.6 20.4 25.584 31.18272
EAT 36.4 47.6 59.696 72.75968

Table: Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
EBIT 52.0 68.0 85.3
EBIT(1-T) 36.4 47.6 59.696
DA 33 33 33
CAPEX 330
∆NWC 250 0 20 21.6
Salvage
PPE
NWC
FCF -580 69.4 60.6 71.096

NPV -26.39>0
IRR 10.71%> 13.25%
 5 6 7 8 9 10
330 330 330 330 330 330
33 33 33 33 33 33
165 198 231 264 297 330
165 132 99 66 33 0

2019 2020
314.9 340.1
23.3 25.2

Dv: 1.000
2020
1360.489
 884.3
352.1
204.1
115
33
124.1
0
124.0978
37.22934
86.86845

2019 2020
103.9 124.1
72.75968 86.86845
33 33

23.328 25.19424

165
340.1
82.43168 599.7965
CAPEX 330
n 10
Growth rate of sales 10%
Sales (2016) 1,000
%COGS 67.4%
Variable Operating c 10.0%
Other fixed cost 115
Tax rate 30.0%
NWC/Sales 25.0%
Discount rate (WACC 13.3%

Table: Depreciation
Year 1 2 3
Gross PPE 330 330 330
Depreciation 33 33 33
Acc Depreciation 33 66 99
Net PPE 297 264 231

Table: Networking capital

Year 2015 2016 2017
NWC 250 250.0 275.0
∆NWC 250 - 25.0

Table: Income Statement

Year 2016 2017 2018
Sales 1,000 1100 1210
COGS 674.0 741.4 815.5
Operating cost 248.0 258.0 269.0
- Variable cost 100.0 110.0 121.0
- Other Fixed cost 115 115 115
- Depreciation Cost 33 33 33
EBIT 78.0 100.6 125.5
I 0 0 0
EBT 78 100.6 125.46
Tax 23.4 30.18 37.638
EAT 54.6 70.42 87.822

Table: Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Year 2015 2016 2017
EBIT 78.0 100.6
EBIT(1-T) 54.6 70.42
DA 33 33
CAPEX 330
∆NWC 250 0 25
Salvage
PPE
NWC
FCF -580 87.6 78.42

NPV 43.07>0
IRR 15.36%> 13.25%
Kết luận: Vì NPV>0 và IRR> 13.25%=> Dự án nên được đầu tư
Phân tích rủi ro
1) Phân tích điểm hòa vốn (Breakeven point)
Phân tích điểm hòa vốn đối với COGS
% COGS= 68.9%=> NPV=0
Do đó để NPV>0=> COGS<68.9%
Phân tích điểm hòa vốn đối với WACC
WACC= 15.436%=> NPV=0
Do đó, dự án này chỉ có thể thực hiện được nếu WACC< 15.436%
2) Phân tích kịch bản
Kịch bản 1
Growth rate 8%
COGS 65%
NPV
IRR
Kịch bản 2
Growth rate 8%
COGS 65%
%variable operating 15%
NPV
IRR
3) Phân tích độ nhạy ( Sử dụng công cụ Datatable)

NPV WACC
43.07 10% 12%
63%
65%
COGS
 67.40%

COGS
68%
69%
70%
75%
 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
330 330 330 330 330 330 330
33 33 33 33 33 33 33
132 165 198 231 264 297 330
198 165 132 99 66 33 0

2018 2019 2020

302.5 332.8 366.0
27.5 30.3 33.3

Dv: 1.000
2019 2020
1331 1464.1
 897.1 986.8
281.1 294.4
133.1 146.4
115 115
33 33
152.8 182.9
0 0
152.806 182.887
45.8418 54.866
106.964 128.021

2018 2019 2020

125.5 152.8 182.9
87.822 106.964 128.021
33 33 33

27.5 30.25 33.275

165
366.0
93.322 109.714 658.771

n được đầu tư
WACC< 15.436%

WACC
13.25% 14% 15% 17%
$580K initial investment at the end
of 2015
$250K WC and $330 PPE
Sales $1million in 2016
growing 10% annually throughout the 5-
year planning period
COGS margin 67.4%
Operating expenses before
depreciation are 10% of sales plus
an annual fixed $115K
Straight-line depreciation
PPE 10-year life
zero salvage value
30% tax rate
2016 - 2020 NWC requirements =
25% of Earthilizer’s sales
CAPEX $330K in 2015
zero in all future years
Project end = 2020
Terminal cash flow: $658,7701
 Kịch bản 1 Kịch bản 2( E
P 125 10%
v 75 -10%
Q 10000 10%
Initial Investm 1000000
n 10
WACC 10%
Tax rate 34%
Other fixed co 250000 -10%
Table: Depreciation
Year 1 2 3
Gross PPE 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
D 100,000 100,000 100,000
Acc-D 100,000 200,000 300,000
Net PPE 900,000 800,000 700,000
Kịch bản 1: Tốt nhất
Table: FCF
Year 0 1 2
Q 11,000.0 11,000.0
P 137.5 137.5
Sales 1,512,500 1,512,500
Variable per unit 67.5 67.5
Total Variable 742,500.0 742,500.0
Depreciation 100,000.0 100,000.0
Other fixed cost 225,000.0 225,000.0
EBIT 445,000.0 445,000.0
EBIT(1-T) 293,700.0 293,700.0
Depreciation 100,000.0 100,000.0
CAPEX 1,000,000
Change NWC -
Salvage
FCF (1,000,000) 393,700 393,700

NPV 1,419,116.1
Kịch bản 2: As expected
Table: FCF
Year 0 1 2
Q 10,000.0 10,000.0
P 125.0 125.0
Sales 1,250,000 1,250,000
Variable per unit 75.0 75.0
Total Variable 750,000.0 750,000.0
Depreciation 100,000.0 100,000.0
Other fixed cost 250,000.0 250,000.0
EBIT 150,000.0 150,000.0
EBIT(1-T) 99,000.0 99,000.0
Depreciation 100,000.0 100,000.0
CAPEX 1,000,000
Change NWC -
Salvage
FCF (1,000,000) 199,000 199,000

NPV 222,768.85
Kịch bản 3: Xấu nhất
Table: FCF
Year 0 1 2
Q 9,000.0 9,000.0
P 112.5 112.5
Sales 1,012,500 1,012,500
Variable per unit 82.5 82.5
Total Variable 742,500.0 742,500.0
Depreciation 100,000.0 100,000.0
Other fixed cost 275,000.0 275,000.0
EBIT (105,000.0) (105,000.0)
EBIT(1-T) (69,300.0) (69,300.0)
Depreciation 100,000.0 100,000.0
CAPEX 1,000,000
Change NWC -
Salvage
FCF (1,000,000) 30,700 30,700

NPV (811,361.79)
Kịch bản 3
-10%
10%
-10%

10%

4 5 6 7 8
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000
400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000

3 4 5 6 7
11,000.0 11,000.0 11,000.0 11,000.0 11,000.0
137.5 137.5 137.5 137.5 137.5
1,512,500 1,512,500 1,512,500 1,512,500 1,512,500
67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5
742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
225,000.0 225,000.0 225,000.0 225,000.0 225,000.0
445,000.0 445,000.0 445,000.0 445,000.0 445,000.0
293,700.0 293,700.0 293,700.0 293,700.0 293,700.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
 393,700 393,700 393,700 393,700 393,700

3 4 5 6 7
10,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0
125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0
1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000
75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0
750,000.0 750,000.0 750,000.0 750,000.0 750,000.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
250,000.0 250,000.0 250,000.0 250,000.0 250,000.0
150,000.0 150,000.0 150,000.0 150,000.0 150,000.0
99,000.0 99,000.0 99,000.0 99,000.0 99,000.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0

199,000 199,000 199,000 199,000 199,000

3 4 5 6 7
9,000.0 9,000.0 9,000.0 9,000.0 9,000.0
112.5 112.5 112.5 112.5 112.5
 1,012,500 1,012,500 1,012,500 1,012,500 1,012,500
82.5 82.5 82.5 82.5 82.5
742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
275,000.0 275,000.0 275,000.0 275,000.0 275,000.0
(105,000.0) (105,000.0) (105,000.0) (105,000.0) (105,000.0)
(69,300.0) (69,300.0) (69,300.0) (69,300.0) (69,300.0)
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0

30,700 30,700 30,700 30,700 30,700

 Family security is considering the introducti
of tiny Global Positioning System (GPS) track
child’s shoe. The trackers allow parents to tr
or abducted. The estimates, plus or minus 1
are as follows: Unit price: $125, Variable co
per year, Expected sales: 10,000 per year. B
firm’s analysts are not confident in their esti
the investment would fare if the estimates o
higher or 10% lower than expected. Assume
an initial outlay of $1 million, with no work
ten years, being depreciated down to zero u
addition, the firm’s management uses a disc
its project analyses.
a. Calculate the project’s NPV under each of
9 10 (1) the best-case scenario (use the high estim
1,000,000 1,000,000 variable costs 10% less than expected, fixed
sales 10% higher than expected),
100,000 100,000 (2) the base case using expected values, and
900,000 1,000,000 (3) the worstcase scenario.
100,000 -

8 9 10
11,000.0 11,000.0 11,000.0
137.5 137.5 137.5
1,512,500 1,512,500 1,512,500.0
67.5 67.5 67.5
742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
225,000.0 225,000.0 225,000.0
445,000.0 445,000.0 445,000.0
293,700.0 293,700.0 293,700.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
 393,700 393,700 393,700

8 9 10
10,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0
125.0 125.0 125.0
1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000.0
75.0 75.0 75.0
750,000.0 750,000.0 750,000.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
250,000.0 250,000.0 250,000.0
150,000.0 150,000.0 150,000.0
99,000.0 99,000.0 99,000.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0

199,000 199,000 199,000

8 9 10
9,000.0 9,000.0 9,000.0
112.5 112.5 112.5
 1,012,500 1,012,500 1,012,500.0
82.5 82.5 82.5
742,500.0 742,500.0 742,500.0
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0
275,000.0 275,000.0 275,000.0
(105,000.0) (105,000.0) (105,000.0)
(69,300.0) (69,300.0) (69,300.0)
100,000.0 100,000.0 100,000.0

30,700 30,700 30,700

 onsidering the introduction of a child security product consisting
tioning System (GPS) trackers that can be inserted in the sole of a
ackers allow parents to track the child if he or she were ever lost
estimates, plus or minus 10%, associated with this new product
t price: $125, Variable costs per unit: $75, Fixed costs: $250,000
d sales: 10,000 per year. Because this is a new product line, the
not confident in their estimates and would like to know how well
uld fare if the estimates on the items listed above are 10%
er than expected. Assume that this new product line will require
$1 million, with no working capital investment, and will last for
epreciated down to zero using straight-line depreciation. In
s management uses a discount rate of 10% and a 34% tax rate in
s.
oject’s NPV under each of the following sets of assumptions:
cenario (use the high estimates—unit price 10% above expected,
less than expected, fixed costs 10% less than expected, and unit
han expected),
sing expected values, and
cenario.
 3-2 BREAKEVEN SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS The expected annual free
cash flow for the GPS tracker investment from Problem 3-1 is
computed as follows

a. Construct a spreadsheet model to compute free cash flow that

relies on the following assumptions or estimates:
b. What level of annual unit sales does it take for the
investment to achieve a zero NPV? Use your spreadsheet
model to answer this question. (Hint: Use the Goal Seek
function in Excel.)
c. If unit sales were 15% higher than the base case, what
unit price would it take for the investment to achieve a zero
NPV?
al free
is