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    AP Statistics - Chapter 8 Notes: Estimating With Confidence 8.1 - Confidence Interval Basics

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    Rhivia Lorat
    This document provides an overview of key concepts for estimating population parameters with confidence intervals from sample data, including: 1) Confidence intervals give a range of plausible values for a population parameter based on a sample statistic and margin of error, where the true parameter will fall within the interval some percentage (confidence level) of the time. 2) Estimating a population proportion requires a random sample, sample size less than 10% of population size, and minimum counts of successes/failures of 10; the confidence interval formula uses the sample proportion and z-statistic. 3) Estimating a population mean can assume normality for large sample sizes; the confidence interval formula uses the sample mean, standard error, and

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    AP Statistics - Chapter 8 Notes: Estimating With Confidence 8.1 - Confidence Interval Basics

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    Rhivia Lorat
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    This document provides an overview of key concepts for estimating population parameters with confidence intervals from sample data, including: 1) Confidence intervals give a range of plausible values for a population parameter based on a sample statistic and margin of error, where the true parameter will fall within the interval some percentage (confidence level) of the time. 2) Estimating a population proportion requires a random sample, sample size less than 10% of population size, and minimum counts of successes/failures of 10; the confidence interval formula uses the sample proportion and z-statistic. 3) Estimating a population mean can assume normality for large sample sizes; the confidence interval formula uses the sample mean, standard error, and

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    This document provides an overview of key concepts for estimating population parameters with confidence intervals from sample data, including: 1) Confidence intervals give a range of plausible values for a population parameter based on a sample statistic and margin of error, where the true parameter will fall within the interval some percentage (confidence level) of the time. 2) Estimating a population proportion requires a random sample, sample size less than 10% of population size, and minimum counts of successes/failures of 10; the confidence interval formula uses the sample proportion and z-statistic. 3) Estimating a population mean can assume normality for large sample sizes; the confidence interval formula uses the sample mean, standard error, and

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    111 views2 pages

    AP Statistics - Chapter 8 Notes: Estimating With Confidence 8.1 - Confidence Interval Basics

    Uploaded by

    Rhivia Lorat
    This document provides an overview of key concepts for estimating population parameters with confidence intervals from sample data, including: 1) Confidence intervals give a range of plausible values for a population parameter based on a sample statistic and margin of error, where the true parameter will fall within the interval some percentage (confidence level) of the time. 2) Estimating a population proportion requires a random sample, sample size less than 10% of population size, and minimum counts of successes/failures of 10; the confidence interval formula uses the sample proportion and z-statistic. 3) Estimating a population mean can assume normality for large sample sizes; the confidence interval formula uses the sample mean, standard error, and

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    AP Statistics – Chapter 8 Notes: Estimating with Confidence

    8.1 – Confidence Interval Basics


    Point Estimate
    A point estimator is a statistic that provides an estimate of a population parameter. The value of that statistic
    from a sample is called a point estimate.

    The Idea of a Confidence Interval


    A C% confidence interval gives an interval of plausible values for a parameter. The interval is calculated from
    the data and has the form: point estimate ± margin of error

    The difference between the point estimate and the true parameter value will be less than the margin of error in
    C% of all samples.

    The confidence level C gives the overall success rate of the method for calculating the confidence interval.
    That is, in C% of all possible samples, the method would yield an interval that captures the true parameter
    value.

    Interpreting Confidence Intervals


    To interpret a C% confidence interval for an unknown parameter, say, “We are C% confident that the interval
    from _____ to _____ captures the actual value of the [population parameter in context].”

    Interpreting Confidence Levels


    To say that we are 95% confident is shorthand for “If we take many samples of the same size from this
    population, about 95% of them will result in an interval that captures the actual parameter value.”

    8.2 – Estimating a Population Proportion


    Conditions for Inference about a Population Proportion
     Random Sample - The data are a random sample from the population of interest.
    1
     10% Rule - The sample size is no more than 10% of the population size: 𝑛 ≤ 10 𝑁
     Large Counts - Counts of successes and failures must be 10 or more: 𝑛𝑝̂ ≥ 10 and 𝑛(1 − 𝑝̂ ) ≥ 10

    ̂ is
    Standard Error of a Sample Proportion 𝒑

    ̂(𝟏 − 𝒑
    𝒑 ̂)
    √
    𝒏
    One-Proportion z-interval
    The form of the confidence interval for a population proportion is
    ̂(𝟏 − 𝒑
    𝒑 ̂)
    ̂ ± 𝒛∗ √
    𝒑
    𝒏
    Sample size for a desired margin of error
    To determine the sample size (n) for a given margin of error m in a 1-proportion z interval, use formula
    2
     z* 
    n = p (1  p )  
    * *

    m
    where p* = 0.5, unless another value is given. Remember, that we will always round up to ensure a slightly
    smaller margin of error than is required.
    8.3 – Estimating a Population Mean
    Conditions for Inference about a Population Mean
     Random Sample - The data are a random sample from the population of interest.
    1
     10% Rule - The sample size is no more than 10% of the population size: 𝑛 ≤ 10 𝑁
     Large Counts/Normality – If the sample size is large (𝑛 ≥ 30), then we can assume normality for any
    shape of distribution. When sample is smaller than 30, the t procedures can be used except in the
    presence of outliers or strong skewness. Construct a quick graph of the data to make an assessment.

    Standard Error
    When the standard deviation of a statistic is estimated from the data, the result is called the standard error of
    the statistic. The standard error of the sample mean is
    𝑠
    √𝑛
    One-Sample t-Interval for Estimating a Population Mean
    The form of the confidence interval for a population mean with n  1 degrees of freedom is
    𝑠
    𝑥̅ ± 𝑡 ∗
    √𝑛
    Paired Differences t-interval
    To compare the responses to the two treatments in a paired data design, apply the one-sample t procedures to
    the observed differences.

    For example, suppose that pre and post test scores for 10 individuals in a summer reading program are:

    Subject 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    Pre-test 25 31 28 27 30 31 22 18 24 30
    Post-test 28 30 34 35 32 31 26 16 28 36
    Difference 3 -1 6 8 2 0 4 -2 4 6

    We would then use the data in the “difference” row and perform one-sample t analysis on it.

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