CHAPTER 1: Introduction To Operations Management: Providing Services. Create Goods And/ or Provide Services
CHAPTER 1: Introduction To Operations Management: Providing Services. Create Goods And/ or Provide Services
CHAPTER 1: Introduction To Operations Management: Providing Services. Create Goods And/ or Provide Services
CHAPTER 3: Forecasting
ASSOCIATIVE MODEL – a forecasting technique that uses explanatory
variables to predict future demand.
CYCLE -wavelike variations lasting more than one year.
DELPHI METHOD -an iterative process in which managers and staff complete
a series of questionnaires, each developed from the previous one, to achieve a
consensus forecast.
FORECAST -a statement about the future value of a variable of interest.
IRREGULAR VARIATION – a caused by unusual circumstances, not
reflective of typical behavior.
JUDGMENTAL FORECASTS -forecasts that use subjective inputs such as
opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives, and experts.
LINEAR REGRESSION – the most widely used form of regression. The
objective is to obtain an equation of a straight line that minimizes the sum of
squared vertical deviations of data points from the line.
PREDICTED VARIABLE – dependent variable
PREDICTOR VARIABLES – used to predict values of variable, interest,
sometimes called independent variables.
QUALITATIVE METHODS -consist mainly of subjective inputs, which often
defy precise numerical description.
QUANTITATIVE METHODS -involves either the extension of historical data
or the development of associative models that attempt to utilize causal
(explanatory) variables to make a forecast.
RANDOM VARIATIONS – a residual variations after all other behaviors are
accounted for. In simply word, it is caused by chance.
REGRESSION – technique for fitting a line to a set of points.
SEASONALITY – a short-term regular variations related to the calendar or
time of day.
TIME SERIES - a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular
intervals.
TIME-SERIES FORECASTS – a forecasts that project patterns identified in
recent time-series observations. These techniques use historical data with the
assumption that the future will be like the past.
TREND – a long-term upward or downward movement in data.