SELL

Dhanuka Agritech (DAGRI)

https://ultraviewer.et/en/own Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals AUGUST 01, 2021
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RESULT
Sector view: Cautious

Margin pressure to continue. Dhanuka reported stable performance in a challenging CMP (`): 949
quarter with villages impacted by delayed rainfall and lockdowns. Guidance of double Fair Value (`): 795
digit growth in FY2022 see pressure due to delayed sowing along with limited ability to
BSE-30: 52,587
pass on RM prices. We keep estimates largely unchanged and maintain flat FY2022
EBITDA on a yoy basis. Maintain SELL with revised fair value of Rs795/share.

Dhanuka Agritech
Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2021 2022E 2023E
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 949/795/SELL EPS (Rs) 44.3 43.4 48.2
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 1,054-658 EPS growth (%) 48.8 (1.9) 11.0
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 45/0.6 P/E (X) 21.4 21.9 19.7
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 287/4 P/B (X) 5.7 4.8 4.1
Shareholding pattern (%) EV/EBITDA (X) 15.7 15.9 14.2
Promoters 75.0 RoE (%) 28.0 23.8 22.6
FPIs/MFs/BFIs 0.0/12.7/0.0 Div. yield (%) 0.4 1.4 1.8
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Sales (Rs bn) 14 15 17
Absolute (1.2) 23.4 20.6 EBITDA (Rs bn) 3 3 3
Rel. to BSE-30 (1.4) 15.6 (18.8) Net profits (Rs bn) 2 2 2

Stable performance in a challenging quarter

Dhanuka’s 1QFY22 EBITDA was 9% ahead of our estimates led by 7% higher revenue versus
our expectations. 1QFY22 revenue decline of 3% yoy was on expected lines due to high base
(1QFY21: 71%) and delayed onset of the monsoon. On a two-year basis, Dhanuka reported 29%
revenue growth CAGR, ahead of industry growth and gaining market share. We expect some
of it may normalize in 2QFY22. Higher raw material prices led to a 54 bps yoy decline in
1QFY22 gross margins. Slowdown in rain from mid-June to mid-July led to 7-10% loss in
herbicides sales. Sales were also impacted in May-2021 due to Covid in rural areas. Dhanuka’s
ITI index also came down to 9% in 1QFY2022 versus 11% in FYF2021 as the company was
unable to place new products due to the pandemic.

Growth and margin may come under pressure in FY2022

Management has maintained its double digit growth guidance in FY2022 with the possibility of
revision post August and September. Rainfall has improved in the past few days and sowing has
also picked up but remains lower than last year. Management believes higher commodity prices
and labor shortages will continue to support growth and margin. However, we believe both
growth and margin may come under pressure in the near term as (1) delay in rainfall and
sowing led to some lost sales and increase in channel inventory and (2) pass through of higher
raw material prices will likely take longer, impacting margins.

Retain SELL with estimates largely unchanged

We marginally tweak our FY2022 estimate to reflect pressure on the current margins and keep
Ritesh Gupta
FY2023E estimates unchanged. We are building in 8% revenue growth in FY2022E led by price
hikes but flat EBITDA yoy to reflect higher raw material costs. We build 18% EBITDA CAGR over
FY2022-24E led by benefits of Rs3 bn capex done for backward integration and reduce external
Prasenjit Bhuiya
raw material dependence. We continue to use a target multiple of 16.5X on FY2023E EPS and
arrive at a FV of Rs795/share from Rs775/share and maintain our SELL rating. Current valuations
do not take cognizance of the cyclicality of the industry arising from vagaries of monsoon and
RM cycle. New capital investments in Dahej (asset turn 1.2X, EBITDA margins 12-15%) may not
turn out to be a great capital allocation given the volatility in AI prices in the presence of
multiple Indian manufacturers investing in pyrethroids.

[email protected]
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427

For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Dhanuka Agritech

Conference call takeaways

 Slower rainfall from mid-June to mid-July. Delayed and lower rainfall led to lower
sales. The company estimates 7-10% of herbicides sales have been lost and partial
recovery can be possible going ahead depending on the rainfall.

 Raw material price pass through got delayed. Delayed rainfall has impacted the pass
through of high raw material prices. Management believes that some raw material prices
may remain at current high levels. The ability of farmers to absorb price hikes depends on
commodity prices. Favorable commodity prices and a shortage of labor makes pass
through of price increase easier.

 Rainfall has improved from mid-July. More than 80% of the areas have received good
rainfall in the month of July. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh have received
good rainfall whereas some areas like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and UP have seen
some dry patches.

 Dhanuka growing faster than industry. Per management, industry has grown at 40-
50% from 1QFY20 levels while Dhanuka has grown much faster, thus gaining market
share. This was led by very efficient (1) supply chain management and operations last year
during the pandemic when most of the competitors faced challenges and (2) the launch
of new products. The company believes its current market share is sustainable.

 ITI falling to 9% in 1QFY2022. Dhanuka’s innovation turnover index (ITI) has come
down to 9% in 1QFY22 from 11% in FY2021. Management attributes this to its inability
to place new products last year due to the pandemic.

 New product launches. Dhanuka launched co-marketing product Tornado formulation

in 1QFY22 and launched 9(3) product ONEKIL in July.

 Capex. Dhanuka’s Rs3 bn capex has got slightly delayed due to the second wave of the
pandemic. Phase I of the project includes one formulation plant earlier expected by
March-2022 and Phase II includes AIs for Pyrethroids, earlier expected by March-2023.

Exhibit 1: Dhanuka’s 1QFY2022 results were ahead of our expectations

Interim results of Dhanuka, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)

(% chg.) 2-yr
1QFY22 1QFY22E 1QFY21 4QFY21 Est. Yoy Qoq 1QFY20 CAGR FY2021 FY2020 (% chg.) FY2022E
Sales 3,638 3,402 3,738 2,755 6.9 (2.7) 32.0 2,190 28.9 13,875 11,201 23.9 14,981
Raw material cost (2,411) (2,270) (2,457) (1,574) 6.2 (1.9) 53.1 (1,443) 29 (8,633) (7,117) 21.3 (9,471)
Employee cost (293) (290) (314) (263) 1.2 (6.5) 11.7 (236) 12 (1,183) (1,052) 12.4 (1,194)
Other expenses (323) (280) (315) (272) 15.3 2.5 18.6 (312) 2 (1,368) (1,297) 5.5 (1,675)
EBITDA 611 562 653 646 8.7 (6.4) (5.4) 199 75 2,691 1,735 55.1 2,641
Other income 77 90 74 87 38 337 251 367
Interest cost (9) (12) (3) (11) (2) (27) (16) (32)
Depreciation and amortization (38) (50) (32) (47) (27) (152) (164) (199)
Profit before tax 642 590 692 675 8.7 (7.3) (5.0) 207 76 2,849 1,806 57.7 2,776
Extraordinaries — — — — — — — —
Tax expense (156) (153) (174) (189) (60) (744) (392) (712)
Net income 486 437 518 486 11.3 (6.2) 0.0 147 82 2,106 1,415 48.8 2,065
Adjusted net income 486 437 518 486 11.3 (6.2) 0.0 147 82 2,106 1,415 48.8 2,065
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 10.2 9.2 10.9 10.2 11.3 (6.2) 0.0 3.1 82 44.3 29.7 48.8 43.4
Key metrics (%)
Gross margins 33.7 33.3 34.3 42.9 46 bps (54)bps (912)bps 34.1 37.8 36.5 132 bps 36.8
EBITDA margins 16.8 16.5 17.5 23.4 28 bps (66)bps (664)bps 9.1 19.4 15.5 391 bps 17.6
Effective tax rate 24.3 26.0 25.2 28.0 29.2 26.1 21.7 25.6

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

2 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Dhanuka Agritech Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Exhibit 2: Dhanuka has launched three new 9(3) products in FY2021

List of new products launched by Dhanuka in the recent years

Product Type Registration

2017
Maxx-soy Herbicide 9(3)
Conika Fungicide 9(3)
Fujiita Fungicide 9(3)
Hi-Dice Super Fungicide 9(4)
Bullon Insecticide 9(4)
Aashito Insecticide 9(4)
Delight Fungicide 9(4)
Foster Miticide 9(3)
2018
D-ONE Insecticide 9(3)
Markar Super Insecticide 9(4)
Dumil 10% SL Herbicide 9(4)
Godiwa Super Fungicide 9(4)
Godiwa Fungicide 9(4)
Fenox 1000 Herbicide 9(4)
Domar Insecticide 9(4)
Suelo Soil conditioner
2019
Foster Insecticide 9(4)
Spectrum Fungicide 9(4)
Dhanutop Super Herbicide 9(4)
2020
Kempa Herbicide 9(4)
Apply Insecticide 9(4)
Largo Insecticide 9(4)
Bio-nutrient
2021
Dabooch Herbicide 9(4)
Dozo Max Herbicide 9(4)
Kirari Fungicide 9(3)
Nissodium Fungicide 9(3)
ONEKIL Herbicide 9(3)

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 3: We largely keep estimates unchanged

Dhanuka’s change of estimates

New estimates Old estimates Old estimates

FY2022 FY2023 FY2022 FY2023 FY2022 FY2023
Revenue 14,981 16,547 15,118 16,624 -0.9% -0.5%
Gross Margin 37% 37% 37% 37% -0.4 -0.2
EBITDA 2,641 2,955 2,600 2,874 1.6% 2.8%
EBITDA margin 18% 18% 17% 17% 0.4315 0.5676
PAT 2,065 2,292 2,034 2,232 1.5% 2.7%
EPS (Rs) 43 48 43 47 1.5% 2.7%

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3

Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Dhanuka Agritech

Exhibit 4: Dhanuka is trading at similar multiple to other domestic players

Dhanuka’s valuations versus peers, March fiscal year-ends, 2022-23E

Price Market cap. P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X)

(LC) (US$ mn) FY2022E FY2023E FY2022E FY2023E
Bayer CropScience 5,778 3,493 36.6 32.3 24.6 21.2
Dhanuka Agritech 949 594 21.9 19.7 12.8 11.4
Godrej Agrovet 697 3 37.9 32.8 15.4 13.0
PI Industries 2,950 1,801 48.4 40.4 24.7 20.3
Rallis India 324 848 22.3 19.2 13.8 11.7
UPL 809 8,308 16.3 13.9 6.3 5.3

Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 5: Dhanuka is trading at 20X 12 month forward price to earnings

12-month forward consensus P/E for Dhanuka (X)

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
May-16

May-18

May-20
May-15

May-17

May-19

May-21
Nov-15

Nov-17

Nov-19
Nov-16

Nov-18

Nov-20
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-20
Aug-15

Aug-19
Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities

4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Dhanuka Agritech Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Exhibit 6: Consolidated profit model, balance sheet and cash flow statement, March fiscal year-ends, 2016-23E (Rs mn)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E

Profit model (Rs mn)
Sales 8,288 8,732 9,626 10,058 11,201 13,875 14,981 16,547
EBITDA 1,398 1,690 1,661 1,460 1,735 2,691 2,641 2,955
Other income 125 152 160 212 251 337 367 393
Interest (11) (11) (9) (9) (16) (27) (32) (36)
Depreciation (59) (148) (142) (123) (164) (152) (199) (230)
Profit before tax 1,453 1,682 1,670 1,540 1,806 2,849 2,776 3,082
Extraordinary items — — — — — — — —
Tax expense (380) (488) (408) (414) (392) (744) (712) (790)
PAT 1,073 1,194 1,262 1,126 1,415 2,106 2,065 2,292
EPS (adjusted) 21.5 23.9 25.7 23.7 29.7 44.3 43.4 48.2
Balance sheet (Rs mn)
Equity 4,804 5,199 6,334 6,422 7,076 7,963 9,408 10,898
Total borrowings 77 79 47 222 80 84 84 84
Deferred tax liability/minority interest 83 116 133 122 53 83 83 83
Current liabilities and provisions 1,602 1,738 1,713 1,587 2,113 3,182 3,436 3,795
Total liabilites 6,566 7,131 8,227 8,353 9,322 11,311 13,010 14,859
Net fixed assets 1,334 1,383 1,310 1,179 1,211 1,745 2,546 3,716
Investments 432 468 895 898 991 903 903 903
Cash and cash equivalents 511 217 1,039 318 860 1,892 2,285 2,250
Other current assets and miscellaneous 4,289 5,063 4,983 5,958 6,259 6,771 7,276 7,990
Total assets 6,567 7,131 8,227 8,353 9,322 11,311 13,010 14,859
Free cash flow (Rs mn)
Operating cash flow 1,079 1,258 1,318 1,003 1,447 2,115 1,897 2,130
Working capital changes 307 (638) 58 (969) 158 169 (251) (355)
Capital expenditure (271) (193) (69) (47) (104) (123) (1,000) (1,400)
Free cash flow 1,115 427 1,307 (13) 1,501 2,161 646 375
Ratios
EBITDA margin (%) 16.9 19.3 17.3 14.5 15.5 19.4 17.6 17.9
Net debt/equity (X) (0.1) (0.0) (0.2) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
Book value (Rs/share) 96 104 129 135 149 167 198 229
ROAE (%) 22.0 21.7 19.8 15.2 18.0 24.7 20.6 19.7
ROACE (%) 21.5 20.3 20.3 14.3 18.6 28.8 23.7 22.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 5

Disclosures

Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional
70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.

40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We expect

32.5% this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12
30% 27.4% months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns
23.6% over the next 12 months; Reduce = We expect this stock to
deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months; Sell = We
20% 16.5% expect this stock to deliver less than -5% returns over the next
12 months. Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon
10% basis. These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
4.2% 4.2% 2.8% applicable regulations. As of 30/06/2021 Kotak Institutional
0.5%
Equities Investment Research had investment ratings on 212
0%
equity securities.
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities As of June 30, 2021

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

Definitions of ratings

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.

ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.

REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.

SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.

Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.

Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.

Other definitions

Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.

Other ratings/identifiers

NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.

CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.

RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.

NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

6 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

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Level 4 : If you have not received a satisfactory response at Level 3 within 7 working days, you may also approach Managing Director / CEO (Mr. Jaideep Hansraj) at [email protected] or
call on 91-(022) 4285 8301.
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